By Adam Clark
Nvidia just can't seem to impress the market any more. Three major potential catalysts for the chip maker's shares have come and gone without making an impression, but investors still have cause to be patient.
First came Nvidia's blowout earnings late last month. Then there was this week's GTC conference where Nvidia showed how it will maintain its dominance in the next generation of artificial-intelligence hardware and gave a headline $1 trillion revenue forecast. And finally, Nvidia executives disclosed this week that sales of its chips to China finally look to be unblocked.
All to no avail. Nvidia stock looks set to end the week lower than it started, trading down by 2.2% at $174.68 on Friday afternoon. That would be the stock's lowest close since Feb. 5. It had been stuck in a trading range of roughly $180 to $190 for weeks.
Ultimately the problem isn't with Nvidia itself, but rather the lack of certainty in the market about the return on AI investment for its customers.
"While Nvidia is confident in its demand momentum, the [GTC] conference did little to address key investor concerns about the sustainability of AI spending by the hyperscalers -- particularly as they run out of free cash flows and tap debt capital markets for additional financing," wrote William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji in a research note.
That's an uncomfortable situation for Nvidia, but it also means that there's significant potential for the stock to start moving again if investors recognize there's a broader range of customers than the large U.S. technology companies.
Of Nvidia's $1 trillion revenue forecast for its Blackwell and Rubin hardware through 2027, 60% is coming from the so-called hyperscalers -- the largest cloud computing companies. The other 40% is driven by smaller customers, including industrial customers.
That means there's a lot of space for other major customers to emerge. Look at Amazon.com co-founder Jeff Bezos, who is in talks to raise $100 billion for a fund to acquire manufacturing companies and transform them with AI, according to The Wall Street Journal. Such a vehicle for automation could easily emerge as Nvidia's next big buyer of chips.
Nvidia might not be able to help itself right now. But one big announcement with a surprise customer could change the mood quickly.
Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com
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March 20, 2026 14:15 ET (18:15 GMT)
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