The discount for West Texas Intermediate crude to Brent contracts could widen further on market speculation over a U.S. oil export ban, Goldman Sachs energy analysts said Friday, a day after the closely watched crude differential hit an 11-year intraday high.
The U.S. investment bank said in a note that the oil market remains focused on potential restrictions on U.S. oil flows, a day after Vice President JD Vance and Energy Secretary Chris Wright told oil executives the administration had ruled out a ban on U.S. oil exports as a way to bring down fuel prices amid the Iran war.
The Brent-WTI spread widened to $13/bbl early Thursday when news of Iranian attacks across Mideast petroleum infrastructure sent May Brent toward $120/bbl before the contract finished well off its high, with the spread setting at $8.50/bbl.
The $13/bbl differential was the widest since the U.S. removed its oil export ban in early 2015.
While WTI is the U.S. oil benchmark, Brent sets the standard for crude prices in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
The sharply higher premium of Brent over WTI reflects an acute crude supply shortage in regions outside of the U.S. due to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and growing attacks on key oil export and production facilities in the Middle East.
Goldman said while it would not rule out U.S. export restrictions, they appeared more likely to target refined products than crude oil if implemented.
A U.S. petroleum export ban could meaningfully reduce supply of crude in Northwest Europe and South Korea, as well as of diesel and gasoline in Mexico, Europe and South Korea, Goldman said.
The bank noted that the U.S. remains a net crude importer. Therefore, any crude export restrictions would likely depress WTI prices versus global benchmarks, raise U.S. crude storage levels and eventually weigh on U.S. shale production.
On the other hand, the U.S. is a net exporter of refined products, including gasoline and diesel. Any refined product export restrictions would likely decrease refiner profits and have uncertain effects on retail fuel prices because parts of the U.S., such as the Northeast, typically rely heavily on product imports.
This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Steve Cronin, scronin@opisnet.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2026 13:22 ET (17:22 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
