ARK invest uses Kalshi to track market expectations

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ARK invest uses Kalshi to track market expectations

cryptonews03-27

ARK Invest is adding Kalshi’s prediction market data to its research process as more institutions test whether these markets can help measure expectations in real time. Summary ARK Invest adopts...

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Prediction markets expand beyond trading as institutions explore signals for risk management and forecasting. Federal Reserve and academia study prediction markets as tools for real time economic expectations analysis. Meanwhile, the move places prediction market signals alongside ARK’s existing work on market trends, policy events, and company milestones, showing how the data is being used for research and portfolio planning beyond direct trading.According to the announcement, ARK will use Kalshi data to track real-time expectations and support its market-based research. The firm also plans to study signals tied to trading activity, regulatory approvals, and technology progress as part of that process.UK becomes first country to ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"crypto.news","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集"},"translate_title":"ARK invest使用Kalshi跟踪市场预期","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":1.5},"content_text":"ARK Invest is adding Kalshi’s prediction market data to its research process as more institutions test whether these markets can help measure expectations in real time. \n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nARK Invest adopts Kalshi data to track real time expectations and guide research decisions\nPrediction markets expand beyond trading as institutions explore signals for risk management and forecasting\nFederal Reserve and academia study prediction markets as tools for real time economic expectations analysis\n\n\n\nMeanwhile, the move places prediction market signals alongside ARK’s existing work on market trends, policy events, and company milestones, showing how the data is being used for research and portfolio planning beyond direct trading.\nAccording to the announcement, ARK will use Kalshi data to track real-time expectations and support its market-based research. The firm also plans to study signals tied to trading activity, regulatory approvals, and technology progress as part of that process.\nKalshi said ARK will also use the data in risk management and hedging. Cathie Wood said, “Bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows is a natural next step for innovation in financial research,” while ARK Research Director Nick Grous said these markets offer “some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes.”\nPrediction markets move beyond trading use\nIn an X post, Wood said on X that ARK has also been working with Kalshi on markets tied to topics the firm follows, including macroeconomic releases and scientific milestones. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said some of those markets are already live, including contracts linked to non-farm payrolls, deficit-to-GDP ratios, and business key performance indicators.\nThe partnership adds to a wider push to use prediction market data as a decision tool. Kalshi has grown into one of the main regulated platforms in the sector, and firms are testing whether market-based probability signals can complement surveys, analyst models, and event-driven research.\nFed and academic research track the same trend\nA Federal Reserve paper published last month said Kalshi’s macro markets can provide a “high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark” for researchers and policymakers. The paper compared Kalshi data with surveys and market-based forecasts and argued that prediction markets can offer a real-time view of changing expectations.\nAcademic work has also examined how prediction markets react to political shocks. A recent paper using Polymarket’s 2024 presidential election data studied trading around the Biden-Trump debate, the assassination attempt on Trump, and Biden’s withdrawal from the race, showing how traders adjusted positions as events unfolded.\n\n\n\n\n\n                Read more:\n            \n\n                UK becomes first country to sanction crypto marketplace Xinbi over $19.9B fraud empire","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}