MW Stock futures and bitcoin slip, Treasury yields climb, as hot jobs report raises more questions about Fed rate cuts
By Joseph Adinolfi and Christine Idzelis
The U.S. economy generated 178,000 new jobs in March
U.S. stock futures were lower in early holiday trade.
Stock futures have slipped while Treasury yields pressed higher during Friday's holiday trading session after a hotter-than-expected jobs report raised more questions about whether the Federal Reserve will deliver an interest-rate cut this year.
S&P 500 futures (ES00) saw a modest bump on the initial headline showing the U.S. economy added 178,000 new jobs in March, a larger number than economists had expected. But futures soon shifted even lower, and were trading near their lows of the session, off 0.3% at 6,599.
Dow futures (YM00) were off by 107 points, or 0.2%, at 46,625 in recent trading, after registering a similarly short-lived jump. Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) were down 98 points, or 0.4%, at 24,119, according to FactSet data.
Treasury yields were higher, with the yield on the 10-year note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y up 4 basis points at 4.339%. Bond yields move inversely with prices.
Bitcoin prices (BTCUSD) also moved lower and were down 0.4% at $66,607 a coin in recent trading, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index.
"The latest payroll report shows that the economy is creating enough jobs to keep up with population growth, which is why the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level of 4.3%," said Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group, in emailed comments early Friday.
'Inflation was already a problem before this latest crisis, and ultimately it looks like the rate cuts last year were a mistake.'Sonu Varghese, Carson Group
"This is going to complicate matters for the Fed, as it makes no sense to even consider rate cuts especially given the magnitude of the upcoming inflation shock," he said. "Inflation was already a problem before this latest crisis, and ultimately it looks like the rate cuts last year were a mistake."
Federal-funds futures on Friday reflected a strong chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain its policy interest rate at the current targeted range of 3.5% to 3.75% through 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, at last check after the jobs report was released. Traders were pricing in a 77.6% chance that the Fed will remain on hold in December, up from 76.3% on Thursday, while also seeing a small but increased probability of a rate hike by year-end.
On Friday, CME data showed a 10.1% probability that the Fed could raise its benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4%, compared with the 0.2% chance of such a hike that traders priced in on Thursday.
While most of Friday's jobs data is from before the war, "it establishes a baseline of a resilient economy, with better than expected job growth and a lower unemployment rate," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, in emailed comments.
"At the margin, this would make the Fed less likely to rush to cut interest rates, however, it also reinforces the idea that the job market is holding up, which should allow consumer spending to continue - a key lynchpin in this economy."
-Joseph Adinolfi -Christine Idzelis
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 03, 2026 09:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
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