MW These stocks are taking big hits from worries about higher gasoline prices
By Tomi Kilgore
Companies have said higher gas prices haven't been an issue, but data showing that traffic has declined suggests some pain could be coming
Stocks of a number of consumer discretionary companies were falling, amid worries that rising gasoline prices as a result of the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict would hurt consumer sentiment and spending.
Shares of several companies selling stuff people want, rather than need, were trading lower Monday despite a recovery in the broader stock market, as Wall Street worried that failed Middle East peace talks would push up gasoline prices enough to crimp consumer spending.
Although companies that have provided updates on their performance in March have not seen much impact on demand, if at all, from the Iran war, data provided by KeyBanc Capital showed that spending and traffic did take a hit. Analyst Bradley Thomas said that suggests there is a risk that consumers will start pulling back on discretionary spending in the current quarter, after the positive jolt provided by higher tax refunds passes.
With crude-oil futures (CL00) surging on Monday amid worries that President Donald Trump's order to block ships to and from Iranian ports would increase hostilities in the region, shares of some companies in the consumer discretionary sector, including those of retailers and travel-related companies, were getting hurt.
Monday's reaction comes after the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF XLY surged 4.4% last week, its best week since late November, amid hopes for a cease-fire. What was encouraging for the sector was that both Delta Air Lines $(DAL)$ and Levi Strauss $(LEVI)$ played down the impact of the Iran conflict on consumer demand, despite higher gasoline prices.
But there was reason for Wall Street to be worried about what comes next. KeyBanc's Thomas said geolocation data suggests that "traffic patterns worsened" in March, as the KBCM Hardlines Traffic Index - a traffic basket targeting major shopping categories - swung to -2.2 from a +2.2 in February. The six-month average reading of the index was +0.4.
Thomas noted that spending and traffic during the month may have been hurt by the Easter holiday, which was two weeks earlier this year than last year, as well as higher gasoline prices. While companies have said that higher gas prices have yet to be a material issue, Thomas pointed to an increasing risk that consumer spending will be hurt in the current second quarter and the third quarter.
D.A. Davidson's Michael Baker said point-of-sale data in the latest week was a positive 1.3% on average, but that was a deceleration from up 3.1% the week before. Baker said the deceleration in growth shows that "gas prices may be starting to have an impact," adding there is risk of further deceleration after tax-refund season ends.
Among the weaker performers was Best Buy's stock $(BBY)$, which shed 3% in recent midday trading. Besides worries about demand for consumer electronics, investors were also reacting to Goldman Sachs swinging from bullish to bearish on the stock, as Barron's reported, due to worries that higher costs for computer memory and data storage will start raising prices for laptops.
Among other discretionary decliners, shares of TJX Companies $(TJX)$, which owns TJ Maxx and Marshalls store brands, fell 2.2%; those of cruise operator Carnival $(CCL)$ declined 1.7%; shares of McDonald's shares $(MCD)$ lost 0.7%; those of Ford Motor shares $(F)$ were down 0.5%; and Levi Strauss & Co. shares (LEVI) dropped 2.3%.
The current average price for regular gasoline across the U.S. is $4.125 a gallon, according to AAA, up from $3.630 a gallon a month ago, and from $3.189 a gallon a year ago.
Among air carriers, American Airlines Group's stock $(AAL)$ gave up 1%, Delta Air Lines's stock (DAL) shed 1.4% and United Airlines Holdings shares $(UAL)$ were off by 1.4%.
The U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS slipped 0.5% after rising 3.9% last week.
Delta said that travel demand remained strong in March, despite the airport chaos caused by the partial government shutdown and higher fares stemming from the Iran conflict. TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald wrote in a Monday note to clients that air carriers have been cutting flights as they watched for potential cracks in demand from higher costs.
And based on data from the Transportation Security Administration, the number of travelers going through TSA security checkpoints averaged 2.519 million people per day so far in April, down from 2.534 million people in March.
-Tomi Kilgore
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April 13, 2026 14:08 ET (18:08 GMT)
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