The global oil market is expected to return to a surplus toward the end of 2026 if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover, allowing producers to restore output and refiners to resume product shipments, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report.
"As an armada of tankers set sail for refining hubs further afield, global observed oil inventories in June rose for the first time since the outbreak of the war," the report said.
The IEA said benchmark crude prices fell sharply in June as Gulf exports recovered following the interim ceasefire between the US and Iran, erasing wartime gains before renewed hostilities lifted prices again.
The agency said global oil demand is recovering from a May low and is projected to decline by 1 million barrels per day in 2026 before increasing by 2 million barrels per day in 2027.
