SpaceX's quarterly report overturned Wall Street's valuation framework. The explosive expansion of AI and computing power businesses is driving this...aerospaceThe company is accelerating its transformation into a technology super platform. Major Wall Street banks have raised their target prices.
According to the Wind Chasing Trading PlatformJPMorgan ChaseIn its latest research report, the company raised its target price for SpaceX from $225 to $240 and maintained its "overweight" rating.
The core driving force is:The company expects annualized recurring revenue (ARR) to surpass $100 billion in December 2026—significantly exceeding JPMorgan Chase's previous forecast of $75 billion in full-year revenue for 2027—while moving forward the timeline for achieving $1 trillion in annual revenue from 2031 to 2030.
According to a report by JPMorgan Chase, the bank has raised its 2026 revenue forecast by 14% to $47 billion and its 2027 revenue forecast by 64% to $123 billion.
The core catalyst for this valuation reshaping is the unexpected acceleration of the monetization of computing power. SpaceX plans to expand its computing power deployment from over 2 gigawatts in 2026 to 5 to 10 gigawatts in 2027, far exceeding JPMorgan Chase's previous estimate of 4.2 gigawatts.
At the same time, the company disclosed a new $6.7 billion, six-month cloud service contract from an anonymous client. Coupled with previously signed major clients such as Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI, the AI cloud business has formed a dense pace of commercial realization, which has a direct impact on market valuation logic.
Prior to this,Goldman SachsThe report raised SpaceX's target price to $220, while Citigroup aimed for a long-term price of over $900.
SpaceX closed down 13.6% at $108.27 on Wednesday.
AI cloud contracts are being implemented at an accelerated pace, and a mysterious major client has sparked market speculation.
SpaceX's commercialization of AI computing power is progressing at a pace that the market did not expect.
The company has already signed AI cloud computing power contracts with several leading technology institutions:Anthropic will receive $920 million per month, Google will receive $1.25 billion per month (effective October), Reflection AI will receive $150 million per month, and an anonymous client will receive a total of $6.7 billion (approximately $1.12 billion per month) over six months starting October.
The identity of this mysterious client has sparked widespread speculation. The pool of potential buyers with monthly spending exceeding $1 billion is extremely limited and may includeGoal,OpenAI,Microsoft,SoftBank,NVIDIAOr other institutions. The sheer size of this contract further confirms the structural tension caused by the current supply and demand imbalance in the computing power market.
On the pricing side, Musk believes that Vera Rubin architecture GPUs have the potential to be priced at $30 to $50 per watt, far higher than the $11 to $16 per watt range previously modeled by JPMorgan Chase.
Higher computing power, coupled with higher monetization pricing, allows SpaceX to realize more than $100 billion in AI revenue, which was originally expected to take until 2028, ahead of schedule to 2027.
Computing power expansion is accelerating, and capital expenditures are being significantly advanced.
The accelerated expansion of computing power has directly driven capital expenditure to a new level.
SpaceX is projected to spend nearly $200 billion in capital in both 2027 and 2028—with the 2027 forecast revised upward from $128 billion to $196 billion—to support the construction needs of 3 to 8 gigawatts of new computing power in 2027, corresponding to an investment of approximately $30 billion to $40 billion per gigawatt.
Huge capital investments will continue to suppress free cash flow, with a projected free cash flow gap of approximately US$108.2 billion in 2027. This trend is highly consistent with the capital cycle of hyperscale cloud computing vendors.
It is worth noting that SpaceX has achieved a payback period of about one year or even less on its new computing power investment, which JPMorgan Chase believes is significantly ahead of the industry in terms of efficiency.
SpaceX's competitive advantage in computing power construction lies in its ability to migrate and apply the engineering capabilities accumulated from its rocket and satellite businesses to data center construction, and to reduce energy costs by building its own power supply (BTM) instead of relying entirely on the power grid, thereby achieving more efficient capacity delivery than its peers.
CEO Elon Musk's planned total ground computing capacity target is 15 to 20 gigawatts, but GPU supply is currently the main bottleneck.
Exclusively partnered with Nvidia, the "Xingzhi" satellite begins its orbital computing power deployment.
In terms of chip strategySpaceX has decided to exclusively use Nvidia GPUs in its data centers.The core reason is that the Vera Rubin architecture has significant technical advantages—the NVL72 rack configuration is described as a "disruptive simplification" of the previous generation of GB NVL72 solutions.
In exchange for deepening the cooperation, SpaceX expects to receive a "very significant percentage" of Nvidia's GPU shipments in 2027.
The cooperation between the two parties has also extended to the field of orbital computing power. SpaceX and Nvidia have jointly launched their first AI satellite project, named "Starmind," which also uses the Vera Rubin architecture as computing hardware and is scheduled to begin launch and deployment in 2027.
This marks the official extension of SpaceX's AI computing power footprint from the ground to space, laying the hardware foundation for its long-term construction of an orbital computing power network.
Musk expects that over time, the proportion of computing power used to train the Grok model will decrease to about 10% of SpaceX AI's total computing power, with the remaining capacity being diverted to inference services and rented out, further opening up commercialization opportunities.
A breakthrough in Starship technology is imminent, and the connectivity business is expanding.
Regarding the progress of the Starship, management expressed relatively clear technological confidence.
After its 13th test flight, SpaceX is now quite confident in its solution to the "thermal protection problem"—a problem previously considered a core technological challenge during the Starship reentry phase.The company plans to attempt to capture the upper stage rocket for the first time during its 14th launch at the end of this month, but still needs to complete several preconditions, including regulatory approvals.
Management also stated that the goal is to achieve a daily Starship launch frequency within a year, and plans to build five launch towers.
Regarding connectivity, President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell confirmed that SpaceX plans to launch the V2 mobile satellite next year and launch Starlink mobile services in the United States by the end of 2027.This relies on the 65MHz spectrum assets the company acquired from EchoStar in May 2026, which received FCC approval, but the transaction is not expected to be completed until November 2027.
Shotwell stated that Starlink mobile services are expected to win a "significant number" of users from the three major U.S. telecom operators, but JPMorgan Chase maintains its assessment that Starlink still needs to be deployed.AcerOnly then can the website be on par with traditional operators in terms of user experience.
On the government and enterprise side, SpaceX won more than $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government contracts in the second quarter, mainly from two major projects for the Space Force's Starshield security satellite network, pushing the total order backlog to $47.5 billion at the end of the second quarter, of which approximately $20 billion was added this quarter alone.
Shotwell stated that the company has not lost any corporate clients to date and expects corporate and government revenue to surpass consumer revenue in the future. JPMorgan Chase anticipates this intersection to occur in 2029.
With the lifting of lock-up restrictions approaching, risk factors cannot be ignored.
Despite the promising fundamental outlook, a significant technical pressure cannot be ignored in the short term.
The lock-up period for 911.5 million shares will expire on Thursday, August 6, with a potential release equivalent to 143% of the current 639 million shares in circulation. JPMorgan Chase believes that the market had already made a considerable amount of advance position adjustments before this lock-up period, but multiple batches of lock-up periods continued to arrive in the following months.
From a medium- to long-term risk perspective, JPMorgan Chase listed six key downside risks:
If Starship encounters technical delays or regulatory obstacles, it will affect multiple business lines; Structural shortages of GPUs and power supply may constrain the pace of computing power expansion; The projected cumulative negative free cash flow of over $300 billion between 2026 and 2030 will rely on continued external financing support; Regulatory uncertainties arising from export controls, spectrum allocation and environmental reviews; And the highly centralized governance risks posed by Musk's holding of approximately 82% of the voting rights.
JPMorgan Chase has set a target price of $240 based on 2028 GAAP earnings per share of $7.02 and a P/E of approximately 34. This represents a significant premium over the median valuation of similar large-cap technology companies, which is about 20 times higher, reflecting SpaceX's...aerospaceMarket leadership in three major areas: launch, satellite connectivity, and AI computing power.
