TradingKey - In the coming week (October 19 to October 23), the US market will shift its focus from this week's inflation data to the third-quarter earnings season and economic growth data. US CPI for September released this week rose 3.7% year-over-year, while PPI gained 1.3% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022; September retail sales grew 0.8% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year, showing that while inflation pressures remain high, US consumer spending maintains a degree of resilience.
Next week's US macroeconomic data will be relatively limited, with the market primarily focusing on the housing market, initial jobless claims, leading economic indicators, October manufacturing and services PMIs, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the US third-quarter earnings season will heat up further, with major companies including Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), IBM (IBM), and Western Digital (WDC) set to release their third-quarter results.
It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting on October 27–28, and entered its policy blackout period on October 17. Therefore, public policy statements from Fed officials will decrease significantly next week, and market expectations regarding the late-October interest rate decision will rely more heavily on economic data and corporate earnings reports.
Major Events Preview
U.S. Q3 Earnings Season Heats Up as Tesla and Meta Take Center Stage for Tech Stocks
The main market theme for next week remains third-quarter earnings.
After the market close on Tuesday (October 20), Netflix will report its third-quarter results. The company previously confirmed that it will release its financial results on that day. The market will closely focus on subscriber and user growth, the advertising business, content spending, free cash flow, and margin trends.
Wednesday (October 21) will be the busiest day for tech earnings next week. Tesla and Meta will report their third-quarter results after the U.S. market close, while IBM, Lam Research, and Texas Instruments will also deliver their earnings reports.
Among them, Tesla has already released its third-quarter delivery figures in advance. The company delivered 486,500 vehicles and produced 464,400 vehicles in the third quarter, while deploying 13.7 GWh of energy storage products. Moving forward, the market will focus on automotive gross margins, average selling prices, energy business performance, as well as progress on Robotaxi, autonomous driving, and AI-related investments. Tesla has confirmed it will release its third-quarter earnings after the U.S. market close on October 21.
For Meta, market attention is primarily centered on advertising revenue growth, AI infrastructure spending, capital expenditures, and progress in commercializing AI products. The company has confirmed it will release its third-quarter results after the U.S. market close on October 21.
Semiconductor Earnings Take Center Stage: AI CapEx and Chip Demand Face Test
Wednesday's Lam Research (LRCX) and Texas Instruments (TXN) earnings will provide fresh demand signals for the semiconductor industry.
Lam Research's results mainly reflect wafer-fab equipment investment and demand related to advanced process technologies. The company's third-quarter earnings call is scheduled for October 21.
Texas Instruments, on the other hand, provides a clearer picture of industrial and automotive chip demand. The company has confirmed its third-quarter earnings call will be held on October 21.
In addition, Western Digital (WDC) will report earnings after the market close on Thursday. Given recent volatility in the storage sector, the market will focus on data center storage demand, enterprise SSDs, and price and margin trends in its hard drive business.
If semiconductor companies continue to raise demand expectations for AI servers, data centers, and advanced process nodes, it could provide fundamental support for tech stocks. However, if management offers cautious guidance on industrial, automotive, or storage demand, it may increase short-term volatility in the sector.
U.S. October PMI Release: Q4 Economic Growth Speed Faces Test
On Friday (October 23), the U.S. will report preliminary October S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
U.S. economic activity maintained a brisk pace of expansion in September, and the market will focus on changes in manufacturing, services, new orders, employment, and business input costs for October. S&P Global recently noted that U.S. investors are paying close attention to October PMI data, as shifts in economic growth and price pressures could influence market expectations regarding the interest rate trajectory.
If the PMI remains at elevated levels, it would indicate that U.S. business activity remains robust. If input costs continue to rise at the same time, it could heighten market concerns about the duration of inflationary pressures. Conversely, if both manufacturing and services cool down simultaneously, the market may refocus on the impact of high interest rates on economic growth.
Core Schedule for the Week
Monday (October 19)
Key Events: October NAHB Housing Market Index
U.S. economic data on Monday will be relatively sparse, with the main focus on the NAHB Housing Market Index.
Tuesday (October 20)
Key Events: GE, General Motors, and Netflix Earnings Reports
On the corporate front, GE Aerospace, General Motors, RTX, and 3M will report third-quarter results before the market opens, while Netflix will report after the close.
Tuesday will be the first major earnings trading day of next week, covering multiple industries including aerospace, automotive, industrial, and media.
Wednesday (October 21)
Key Events: Tesla, Meta, and IBM Earnings Reports
Tesla, Meta, IBM, Lam Research, and Texas Instruments will report their third-quarter results after the U.S. market close.
Among them, the earnings of Tesla and Meta, as well as management's comments on AI, capital expenditures, and future business growth, will be the main focal points for the U.S. tech sector that day.
Thursday (October 22)
Key Events: Initial Jobless Claims, WDC Earnings Report
The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week, the September Leading Economic Indicators, and regional manufacturing surveys.
On the corporate front, Lockheed Martin, American Airlines, Blackstone, and Procter & Gamble will report results before the market opens, while Western Digital will report after the close.
Thursday's earnings reports cover various industries including defense, aviation, finance, consumer goods, and storage.
Friday (October 23)
Key Events: U.S. October PMI, October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
On Friday, the U.S. will release the preliminary October S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, along with the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October.
The preliminary October reading from the University of Michigan showed the consumer sentiment index at 46.3, down from 48.1 in September; one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.6% to 4.7%, while long-term inflation expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.5%. The final October data will be released at 10:00 AM on October 23.
On the corporate front, American Express (AXP) will report third-quarter results on Friday. The company has confirmed that the earnings report will be released around 7:00 AM Eastern Time, followed by an earnings call at 8:30 AM. Market focus will be on credit card spending, loan quality, consumer expenditure, and full-year guidance.
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