Eli Lilly's (LLY) Foundayo, its oral GLP-1 treatment, is expected to keep gaining share over the next 12 months, according to a Q3 physician obesity survey, BofA Securities said in a Monday research note.
Foundayo accounts for 27% of oral GLP-1 new starts, and BofA's survey indicates it could reach 40% share by 2028 and 2029. Most prescriptions remain at low doses during early-launch titration. In 2027, investors will look to the dose split for assurance that patients are not gravitating toward lower doses for cost reasons, the note said.
Regarding US pricing, BofA said the survey points to a potentially better Zepbound mix that could keep blended prices at $480 to $520 in Q3 and Q4, implying some upside in Q3.
The survey also indicated that early experience with the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program is expanding obesity practices, with 65% to 70% of respondents reporting higher monthly patient volume, averaging a mid-teens percentage increase.
BofA reiterated its buy rating on Eli Lilly and raised its price objective to $1,397 from $1,341.
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