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- 啊翔_2235啊翔_2235
  ·2021-07-20
  Tonight up
  Futures bounce after steep selloff; IBM gains on strong results
  (Reuters) - Futures tracking Wall Street's main indexes rose on Tuesday, as economically sensitive s
  Futures bounce after steep selloff; IBM gains on strong results
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- 啊翔_2235啊翔_2235
  ·2021-07-20
  Hong gan
  Inflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry
  A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, tha
  Inflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry
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- 啊翔_2235啊翔_2235
  ·2021-07-18
  Huat n like
  The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now
  “So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.” That’s howmy Barron’s column
  The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now
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Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>Analysts now see year-on-year S&amp;P 500 earnings growth of 72% for the April to June period, per Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Wall Street's main indexes ended sharply lower on Monday, with the blue-chip Dow Jones index logging its worst day in nearly nine months as a surge in Delta variant infections sparked a broad sell-off on fears about renewed COVID-19 shutdowns and a protracted economic recovery.</p>\n<p>Energy stocks Chevron Corp, Schlumberger NV, Occidental Petroleum Corp, ONEOK Inc, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a> and Halliburton Co rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session's 7% slide. [O/R]</p>\n<p>Rate-sensitive lenders Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> were up between 0.7% and 1.0%. [US/]</p>\n<p>At 6:35 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 203 points, or 0.6%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 22.25 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 75.5 points, or 0.52%.</p>\n<p>Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms Coinbase Global, Riot Blockchain, Marathon Patent Group and MicroStrategy Inc fall between 1.4% and 2.8% as bitcoin slipped below $30,000.</p>\n<p>Halliburton Co added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Futures bounce after steep selloff; IBM gains on strong results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFutures bounce after steep selloff; IBM gains on strong results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-20 19:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Futures tracking Wall Street's main indexes rose on Tuesday, as economically sensitive stocks rebounded following a sharp selloff in the previous session, while shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> jumped after posting strong second-quarter results.</p>\n<p>Shares of International Business Machines Corp gained 4.0% in premarket trading as brokerages raised their price targets on the stock following strong quarterly growth in the company's cloud and consulting businesses.</p>\n<p>Focus is now on earnings reports from companies including Netflix Inc, Philip Morris and Chipotle Mexican Grill later in the day.</p>\n<p>The second-quarter reporting season is underway, with 41 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having reported. Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data.</p>\n<p>Analysts now see year-on-year S&amp;P 500 earnings growth of 72% for the April to June period, per Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Wall Street's main indexes ended sharply lower on Monday, with the blue-chip Dow Jones index logging its worst day in nearly nine months as a surge in Delta variant infections sparked a broad sell-off on fears about renewed COVID-19 shutdowns and a protracted economic recovery.</p>\n<p>Energy stocks Chevron Corp, Schlumberger NV, Occidental Petroleum Corp, ONEOK Inc, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a> and Halliburton Co rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session's 7% slide. [O/R]</p>\n<p>Rate-sensitive lenders Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> were up between 0.7% and 1.0%. [US/]</p>\n<p>At 6:35 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 203 points, or 0.6%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 22.25 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 75.5 points, or 0.52%.</p>\n<p>Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms Coinbase Global, Riot Blockchain, Marathon Patent Group and MicroStrategy Inc fall between 1.4% and 2.8% as bitcoin slipped below $30,000.</p>\n<p>Halliburton Co added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IBM":"IBM"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152698867","content_text":"(Reuters) - Futures tracking Wall Street's main indexes rose on Tuesday, as economically sensitive stocks rebounded following a sharp selloff in the previous session, while shares of IBM jumped after posting strong second-quarter results.\nShares of International Business Machines Corp gained 4.0% in premarket trading as brokerages raised their price targets on the stock following strong quarterly growth in the company's cloud and consulting businesses.\nFocus is now on earnings reports from companies including Netflix Inc, Philip Morris and Chipotle Mexican Grill later in the day.\nThe second-quarter reporting season is underway, with 41 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Of those, 90% have beaten consensus estimates, according to Refinitiv data.\nAnalysts now see year-on-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 72% for the April to June period, per Refinitiv.\nWall Street's main indexes ended sharply lower on Monday, with the blue-chip Dow Jones index logging its worst day in nearly nine months as a surge in Delta variant infections sparked a broad sell-off on fears about renewed COVID-19 shutdowns and a protracted economic recovery.\nEnergy stocks Chevron Corp, Schlumberger NV, Occidental Petroleum Corp, ONEOK Inc, Phillips 66 and Halliburton Co rose between 0.8% and 2.7%, as oil prices edged higher after the previous session's 7% slide. [O/R]\nRate-sensitive lenders Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley were up between 0.7% and 1.0%. [US/]\nAt 6:35 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 203 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 22.25 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 75.5 points, or 0.52%.\nShares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms Coinbase Global, Riot Blockchain, Marathon Patent Group and MicroStrategy Inc fall between 1.4% and 2.8% as bitcoin slipped below $30,000.\nHalliburton Co added 2% after it posted a second-straight quarterly profit, as a rebound in crude prices from pandemic-lows buoyed demand for oilfield services.\n(Reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171444359,"gmtCreate":1626760061771,"gmtModify":1703764679391,"author":{"id":"3552981373990541","authorId":"3552981373990541","name":"啊翔_2235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31044deb26a73933ac0c19a74e386582","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3552981373990541","authorIdStr":"3552981373990541"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hong gan&nbsp;","listText":"Hong gan&nbsp;","text":"Hong gan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171444359","repostId":"1140799023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140799023","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626759279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140799023?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 13:34","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Inflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140799023","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, tha","content":"<p>A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, that has created inflation 12 months on as the economy reopens and rebounds. Now the market seems to believe that a resurgence of the pandemic will rein in inflation before it grows out of control. No one disputes that inflation has arrived. The question is where it’s heading.</p>\n<p>The most basic fact is that June’s “headline” consumer price index, including everything the government puts in its representative basket of products and services that Americans buy, stands at 5.4%, the highest in 30 years barring one month in the summer of 2008 when oil reached nearly $150 per barrel. Exclude food and fuel, always variable, and inflation still comes in at 4.5% — its highest in three decades by far. Even if the most extreme movers both up and down are stripped out, inflation stands at 2.9%, its worst since 1992 (barring a few months of very expensive oil). Those numbers would seem to validate the doomsayers.</p>\n<p>Yet bond markets and economists take the opposite view. They see inflation not only coming under control but eventually falling to levels lower than before the pandemic hit. The bond market’s best estimate of the average inflation rate for the next 10 years stands at 2.3%, which is roughly where it’s been for four months even as other numbers have gotten worse. The yield curve — the extra yield that investors demand for 10-year bonds rather than 2-year bonds, which generally rises when people expect higher inflation — is now below 1%. That’s less than its average for the last decade, a period when inflation hasn’t been a problem. Indeed, it’s no higher than it was in February.</p>\n<p>Either market players remain confident that the Federal Reserve can keep rising prices under control, or they’re worried the economy won’t keep growing fast enough to push inflation numbers higher. Those concerns are definitely increasing as the delta variant shows its ability to slow economic reopening.</p>\n<p>Our dashboard of indicators aims to add clarity to this debate. Inflation is a complex phenomenon that grows from many places. These 35 key measures offer up a more nuanced picture of how markets are positioned, what the official data say and what consumers and businesses are discounting. Numbers are current as of Monday, July 19 and will be updated weekly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adee36e07b6919f5636c61bcddc3afcb\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Flashing alarmingly bright are the official data, as well as surveys of businesses and consumers. The latest survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, of prices paid by small companies, is at a level it last reached all the way back in the first quarter of 1981. Yet showing no concern at all are market indicators and Bloomberg’s surveys of expert economists’ predictions. Both are below their averages for the last decade.</p>\n<p>Resolution should come in two categories that remain finely balanced: prices and wages. These factors drove inflation higher in the 1970s and could do so again. Prices of futures for oil, agriculture and metals have all given up ground after rising very sharply from last year’s lows. But the raw industrials index, which includes basic commodities that aren’t in the futures markets, continues to rise and is nearing its historic top from more than a decade ago.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, although wage growth remains well within its recent ranges, the pay of low-skilled workers is picking up and employers are complaining that they cannot fill jobs, which could imply wage inflation ahead. The decisive factor could be if a new pandemic-related downturn weakens demand, as well as the hand of labor, again. That would be bad news, but at least it would avert an extended bout of inflation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e71f075b43fcaeb158fd768e81345b8\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">June’s inflation data delivered a third nasty shock in succession. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE deflator, is also at its highest level since 1992. Meanwhile, headline inflation (including fuel and food) is at 5% for the first time since the oil price spike of 2008. Producer price inflation is also high. These are sudden moves and the more muted rise in the “trimmed mean” measure, which excludes goods that have suffered the most extreme changes in price, suggests that it is indeed mainly a transitory effect from the pandemic. But it will still be a relief if next month’s data can show a significant retreat in some of the sectors that were hit by extreme inflation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f56e14f20907601eea311f677649c5\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is deepening concern over shelter inflation, the single biggest component of the CPI index, which is now up to 2.3% and will likely rise further as higher house prices pull up rents in their wake. This will be particularly closely watched. But the most extreme transitory effects of the pandemic are otherwise beginning to ease. Car rental prices, for example, are now “only” 88% higher than they were 12 months ago, having previously topped 100%.&nbsp;Several sectors which suffered a deflationary blow from the pandemic are still not seeing prices recover. Recreation inflation is still negative. And — heaven be praised — college-tuition inflation remains close to its lowest since records began in 1979, although it did tick up slightly in June. It is still just about possible to sustain an optimistic narrative that the pandemic caused extraordinary inflation in some pockets of the economy but might have brought sanity to others where prices had grown prohibitive.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacb4482c44ce01dc5be1582e8932f5a\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bond market, where traders make their most precise predictions of inflation, has been in flux all year. Four months ago, 5-year breakevens topped 2.75%, virtually matching their high during the 2008 oil price spike. Since then they have dropped below 2.4%, although the latest data returned them to 2.6% — higher than they were at any point between 2010 and 2020. Meanwhile, expectations for the years from 2026 to 2031 have fallen to 2.16%, suggesting confidence that the Fed will be able to rein in inflation over the next five years. The heat map is based on the 20-day moving average of the breakevens, to avoid being too affected by day-to-day movements, which have been violent in the last few weeks. Nobody is positioned for the Fed to lose control of inflation anytime soon, nor for Germany or Japan to snap out of their disinflationary malaise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e052d83b8f96767e4b22170b4455ffd8\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These numbers offer perhaps the greatest support for the case that inflation is a near and present danger. All are way above their ranges for the last decade. The small business survey shows inflation expectations at their highest in four decades, while the Institute for Supply Management numbers are at post-2008 highs&nbsp;and still rising in the latest number produced at the beginning of July — although the survey for the services sector did show a slight decline. Consumer expectations have also risen very sharply, to their highest since the commodity price spike before the financial crisis, with the latest Conference Board survey reaching a fresh high for this cycle. This could be transitory but, if so, the numbers need to come down soon.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503a1ccabd574d899752b5acb9d3900b\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Rising commodity prices represent exactly the kind of inflation that can attack living standards. But, given the economic collapse a year ago and the rush by speculators to get a leveraged play on the rebound, they don’t give firm evidence of inflation that is more than transitory. Metals prices are about 6% below their May peak, while energy prices have also dropped by about 6% as the OPEC+ cartel tries to sort out its problems; it’s not at all clear the latter are locked into an inflationary expansion. One increasingly ominous warning sign comes from the Commodities Research Board raw industrials index, which covers basic commodities that aren’t in the futures market. In theory, these prices should be driven by supply-and-demand dynamics in the real world, not by ebbs and flows of emotion in the markets. The index has gained more than 50% in a year and is nearing an all-time high.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037e6afcf827db9373c9fa59e7d762f7\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a crucial driver of inflation and, from the official data, it appears to be under control despite a number of factors that would normally drive salaries and wages upwards. Most measures of wage inflation are running below their average for the last five years, with the Atlanta Fed putting overall wage growth at 3.2%. Yet, job vacancies are at an all-time record, while small businesses complain that they have never found it harder to recruit workers. This suggests a problem with skill mismatches coming out of the recession. At the same time, while average hourly earnings have been quite variable over the last few months, the latest number shows them increasing at the fastest rate since 2009. The ongoing wage tracker kept by the Atlanta Fed shows that wage inflation for low-skilled workers has reached 3.6%, close to its highest since the global financial crisis. The National Federation of Independent Business finds the highest proportion of its members raising pay since they started asking the question in 1984.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbee8b94aaefef4fa3e232c198af27cd\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Broadly, the consensus is that the Fed, like other central banks, will get what it wants. The Fed is forecasting Core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) of 3% for this year but expects it to decline to 2% in 2023; in other words, it will be transitory. The experts are less anxious for now and think it will reach 2.5% this year and decline in the two following years — more or less perfect for the Fed, which is prepared to let inflation “run hot.” German inflation, after a bobble this year, is expected to fall back to 1.7% in 2023; there’s no sign of a new reflationary cycle there or in Japan, or even China. Whatever markets say, the experts are still more worried about deflation.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Is Here — These 35 Metrics Tell You How Much to Worry\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 13:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opinion-authers-inflation-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, that has created inflation 12 months on as the economy reopens and rebounds. Now the market seems to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opinion-authers-inflation-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opinion-authers-inflation-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140799023","content_text":"A year ago, the Covid-19 pandemic crushed prices in many parts of the U.S. economy. As expected, that has created inflation 12 months on as the economy reopens and rebounds. Now the market seems to believe that a resurgence of the pandemic will rein in inflation before it grows out of control. No one disputes that inflation has arrived. The question is where it’s heading.\nThe most basic fact is that June’s “headline” consumer price index, including everything the government puts in its representative basket of products and services that Americans buy, stands at 5.4%, the highest in 30 years barring one month in the summer of 2008 when oil reached nearly $150 per barrel. Exclude food and fuel, always variable, and inflation still comes in at 4.5% — its highest in three decades by far. Even if the most extreme movers both up and down are stripped out, inflation stands at 2.9%, its worst since 1992 (barring a few months of very expensive oil). Those numbers would seem to validate the doomsayers.\nYet bond markets and economists take the opposite view. They see inflation not only coming under control but eventually falling to levels lower than before the pandemic hit. The bond market’s best estimate of the average inflation rate for the next 10 years stands at 2.3%, which is roughly where it’s been for four months even as other numbers have gotten worse. The yield curve — the extra yield that investors demand for 10-year bonds rather than 2-year bonds, which generally rises when people expect higher inflation — is now below 1%. That’s less than its average for the last decade, a period when inflation hasn’t been a problem. Indeed, it’s no higher than it was in February.\nEither market players remain confident that the Federal Reserve can keep rising prices under control, or they’re worried the economy won’t keep growing fast enough to push inflation numbers higher. Those concerns are definitely increasing as the delta variant shows its ability to slow economic reopening.\nOur dashboard of indicators aims to add clarity to this debate. Inflation is a complex phenomenon that grows from many places. These 35 key measures offer up a more nuanced picture of how markets are positioned, what the official data say and what consumers and businesses are discounting. Numbers are current as of Monday, July 19 and will be updated weekly.\nFlashing alarmingly bright are the official data, as well as surveys of businesses and consumers. The latest survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, of prices paid by small companies, is at a level it last reached all the way back in the first quarter of 1981. Yet showing no concern at all are market indicators and Bloomberg’s surveys of expert economists’ predictions. Both are below their averages for the last decade.\nResolution should come in two categories that remain finely balanced: prices and wages. These factors drove inflation higher in the 1970s and could do so again. Prices of futures for oil, agriculture and metals have all given up ground after rising very sharply from last year’s lows. But the raw industrials index, which includes basic commodities that aren’t in the futures markets, continues to rise and is nearing its historic top from more than a decade ago.\nMeanwhile, although wage growth remains well within its recent ranges, the pay of low-skilled workers is picking up and employers are complaining that they cannot fill jobs, which could imply wage inflation ahead. The decisive factor could be if a new pandemic-related downturn weakens demand, as well as the hand of labor, again. That would be bad news, but at least it would avert an extended bout of inflation.\nJune’s inflation data delivered a third nasty shock in succession. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE deflator, is also at its highest level since 1992. Meanwhile, headline inflation (including fuel and food) is at 5% for the first time since the oil price spike of 2008. Producer price inflation is also high. These are sudden moves and the more muted rise in the “trimmed mean” measure, which excludes goods that have suffered the most extreme changes in price, suggests that it is indeed mainly a transitory effect from the pandemic. But it will still be a relief if next month’s data can show a significant retreat in some of the sectors that were hit by extreme inflation.\nThere is deepening concern over shelter inflation, the single biggest component of the CPI index, which is now up to 2.3% and will likely rise further as higher house prices pull up rents in their wake. This will be particularly closely watched. But the most extreme transitory effects of the pandemic are otherwise beginning to ease. Car rental prices, for example, are now “only” 88% higher than they were 12 months ago, having previously topped 100%. Several sectors which suffered a deflationary blow from the pandemic are still not seeing prices recover. Recreation inflation is still negative. And — heaven be praised — college-tuition inflation remains close to its lowest since records began in 1979, although it did tick up slightly in June. It is still just about possible to sustain an optimistic narrative that the pandemic caused extraordinary inflation in some pockets of the economy but might have brought sanity to others where prices had grown prohibitive.\nThe bond market, where traders make their most precise predictions of inflation, has been in flux all year. Four months ago, 5-year breakevens topped 2.75%, virtually matching their high during the 2008 oil price spike. Since then they have dropped below 2.4%, although the latest data returned them to 2.6% — higher than they were at any point between 2010 and 2020. Meanwhile, expectations for the years from 2026 to 2031 have fallen to 2.16%, suggesting confidence that the Fed will be able to rein in inflation over the next five years. The heat map is based on the 20-day moving average of the breakevens, to avoid being too affected by day-to-day movements, which have been violent in the last few weeks. Nobody is positioned for the Fed to lose control of inflation anytime soon, nor for Germany or Japan to snap out of their disinflationary malaise.\nThese numbers offer perhaps the greatest support for the case that inflation is a near and present danger. All are way above their ranges for the last decade. The small business survey shows inflation expectations at their highest in four decades, while the Institute for Supply Management numbers are at post-2008 highs and still rising in the latest number produced at the beginning of July — although the survey for the services sector did show a slight decline. Consumer expectations have also risen very sharply, to their highest since the commodity price spike before the financial crisis, with the latest Conference Board survey reaching a fresh high for this cycle. This could be transitory but, if so, the numbers need to come down soon.\n\nRising commodity prices represent exactly the kind of inflation that can attack living standards. But, given the economic collapse a year ago and the rush by speculators to get a leveraged play on the rebound, they don’t give firm evidence of inflation that is more than transitory. Metals prices are about 6% below their May peak, while energy prices have also dropped by about 6% as the OPEC+ cartel tries to sort out its problems; it’s not at all clear the latter are locked into an inflationary expansion. One increasingly ominous warning sign comes from the Commodities Research Board raw industrials index, which covers basic commodities that aren’t in the futures market. In theory, these prices should be driven by supply-and-demand dynamics in the real world, not by ebbs and flows of emotion in the markets. The index has gained more than 50% in a year and is nearing an all-time high.\n\nWage inflation is a crucial driver of inflation and, from the official data, it appears to be under control despite a number of factors that would normally drive salaries and wages upwards. Most measures of wage inflation are running below their average for the last five years, with the Atlanta Fed putting overall wage growth at 3.2%. Yet, job vacancies are at an all-time record, while small businesses complain that they have never found it harder to recruit workers. This suggests a problem with skill mismatches coming out of the recession. At the same time, while average hourly earnings have been quite variable over the last few months, the latest number shows them increasing at the fastest rate since 2009. The ongoing wage tracker kept by the Atlanta Fed shows that wage inflation for low-skilled workers has reached 3.6%, close to its highest since the global financial crisis. The National Federation of Independent Business finds the highest proportion of its members raising pay since they started asking the question in 1984.\n\nBroadly, the consensus is that the Fed, like other central banks, will get what it wants. The Fed is forecasting Core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) of 3% for this year but expects it to decline to 2% in 2023; in other words, it will be transitory. The experts are less anxious for now and think it will reach 2.5% this year and decline in the two following years — more or less perfect for the Fed, which is prepared to let inflation “run hot.” German inflation, after a bobble this year, is expected to fall back to 1.7% in 2023; there’s no sign of a new reflationary cycle there or in Japan, or even China. Whatever markets say, the experts are still more worried about deflation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173939452,"gmtCreate":1626595831276,"gmtModify":1703762189062,"author":{"id":"3552981373990541","authorId":"3552981373990541","name":"啊翔_2235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31044deb26a73933ac0c19a74e386582","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3552981373990541","authorIdStr":"3552981373990541"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat n like&nbsp;","listText":"Huat n like&nbsp;","text":"Huat n like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173939452","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123523681","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626569903,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123523681?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 08:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123523681","media":"CNBC","summary":"“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column","content":"<div>\n<p>“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-18 08:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1123523681","content_text":"“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial advisor who has come to be known in print and on Twitter as the Mystery Broker, whose market color and investment calls I share on the irregular frequency with which he sends them.\nHis predictions don’t always prove prescient, but he has been more right than wrong, with a particularly impressive record of bold calls around market bottoms and ahead of corrections.\nAs noted in that first writeup in Barron’s in December 2009: “This particular guy is unique in at least two respects. He has no interest in having his name placed in print or pixels. And he is the one commentator I’m aware of who both turned aggressively bearish virtually at the all-time market peak in 2007, then in April began insisting that the March market lows would not be challenged, and that a new cyclical bull market had a long way to run.”\nThis broker’s dispatch to me in April 2009 — just weeks after the ultimate low of a wrenching 18-month bear market and terrifying global credit crisis — was a 12-page single-spaced argument that the financial crisis was over.  This was far from the consensus at the time. A November 2007 piece had called for a brutal bear market, a month after the S&P 500 hit a peak it wouldn’t revisit until 2013 and before most investors even had a bear market on their radar.\nThe intention of airing his views was not to create some gimmick or generate cheap intrigue, but simply to offer the well-grounded thoughts of professional free of institutional constraints or the need to sell investment products.\nBut it did capture readers’ attention and imagination, to the point that requests for updates of the Mystery Broker’s market take come constantly. I continue it strictly because so many readers and viewers have followed his work for years and like to keep up\nAnd, yes, the whole exercise drives some people nuts, whether they think it’s irresponsible (which makes no sense, he gets no benefit and doesn’t hype small stocks that could move in his favor) or insist it’s a fictional alter ego (untrue).\nMystery Broker’s approach\nHe became a broker in the mid-’80s. While there’s long been a guessing game about MB’s identity, he is not someone who’s name anyone would know, he doesn’t otherwise comment publicly on investments.\nAs noted back in 2009: “He doesn’t claim any magic formulas or proprietary systems. His approach is eclectic and inclusive, ranging among economic, technical, historical, valuation and sentiment inputs.” He’ll cite Marty Zweig, Ned Davis and the Value Line Appreciation Potential indicators – fairly old-school inspirations – but doesn’t seem rigidly attached to any one model or style.\nI almost never solicit Mystery Broker’s take, preferring he check in only when it strikes him, often when he changes his market stance or is moved to reiterate his conviction in a prior call. Aside from the broad market commentary, he’ll sometimes make the case for or against individual stocks. He loved wells Fargo to start 2021, as well as GE, for instance.\nMystery Broker sometimes goes deep on a controversial emerging biotech name, the sort of thing I tend not to pass along. He was put off by CNBC’s heavy coverage of the “meme stocks” early this year and let me know it. He and I both have strong views on baseball, which we exchange via email. We’ve never met.\nHow he navigated the pandemic\nIn the past few months, Mystery Broker has been cautious on stocks and has missed a bit of upside. Specifically, he went to a sell (which tends to mean raising cash for clients and himself and hedging equity holdings with index puts) at the close on April 16, with the S&P 500 at 4185. The index went sideways for two months, then lifted to last week’s record up almost 5% from where he called for a correction.\nStill, he’s playing with a lot of house money, having been deftly bullish into the teeth of the March 2020 Covid crash. (He was negative on the market from January last year, though not because he expected either a pandemic or a crash).\nThe individual calls are viewable at the #MysteryBroker hashtag on Twitter, but to cite a few examples: He thought the March 4, 2020, low in the S&P 500 near 2900 would hold; it absolutely didn’t, plunging to about 2200 by the 23rd. But on March 26 he said the bottom was in, and within a month the S&P had recovered back to 2900.\nThen, this in mid-April 2020: He would normally look for a retest of the major low, but not then: ”“Because for the first time in stock market history the consensus is for a retest, a normal retest is not likely to happen.”\nThis was right, as was his preference for riskier cyclical stocks and his update June of last year: “We are in a new bull market...every correction should be bought...every time S&P 500 falls below its 50-day moving average is an extraordinary buying opportunity.”\nS&P 500 with 50-day moving averageFactSet\nAfter that and before predicting a correction three months ago that has yet to occur, he pegged the peak in FAANMG days before they topped last Sept. 1; said in late December the market had “entered the last hurrah for growth and speculative stocks” that would pressure the  overall market but not necessarily drive across-the-board losses; and predicted bitcoin would peak coincident with the Coinbase listing (it did). Not perfect, but not bad.\nHis current outlook\nHis is not a system, but a weight-of-the-evidence approach pursued with an open mind and a feel for market cadences earned over more than three decades of economic cycles.\nFollowing up onhis latest update this week, I asked for a broader take on historical echoes and longer-term probabilities. Mystery Broker offers this:\n“I think the current recovery is most similar to the recovery in 2003-04.  A big transition from hyper-growth to value.  Also, valuations are already high after only one year of stock market and economic growth similar to 2003-4, although more extreme now. ” He expects “muted returns for the rest of decade similar to the low returns of the first decade of the 2000s.  See leadership from industrials, healthcare and to some degree financials.”\n“Don’t expect technology to be a big outperformer and semiconductors will be a disappointment especially equipment semis that have benefitted from a few big trends over the last few years. Value, foreign stocks (expect dollar to fall over the next few years) and equal-weighted indices will outperform.  Inflation and interest rates will slowly rise which is different from the last decade.\n“The big surprise will be how old industries adapt to new technology and fight off some of the hot new entries.  There will be a lot of rebounds similar to how the New York Times came back from the dead last decade.”\nI also asked if he’s interested in being identified. The answer: not now, but maybe soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}