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- garyyue88garyyue88
  ·2021-04-06
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  20年来美股最牛月份4月来了！非农爆表能否引燃新行情
  标普500指数上周首次突破4000点，在美国3月非农等经济数据持续向好的背景下，二季度市场值得期待。上周美国三大股指全线上涨，拜登政府的大规模基建计划提振了外界对美国经济前景的预期，标普500指数史上
  20年来美股最牛月份4月来了！非农爆表能否引燃新行情
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- garyyue88garyyue88
  ·2021-02-19
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href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101009919.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101009919.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110729138","content_text":"标普500指数上周首次突破4000点，在美国3月非农等经济数据持续向好的背景下，二季度市场值得期待。上周美国三大股指全线上涨，拜登政府的大规模基建计划提振了外界对美国经济前景的预期，标普500指数史上首次突破4000点大关。历史数据显示，过去20年里美股4月的平均涨幅最大，在刺激政策和新冠疫苗接种推进双管齐下的支撑下，近期美国多项宏观指标持续向好，投资者对未来市场的信心有所上升。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，随着疫苗接种率上升，美国经济的复苏动能正在释放。新基建计划助力经济复苏美国劳工部2日公布的非农就业报告显示，3月美国新增就业岗位91.6万个，创近8个月新高，失业率环比回落0.3个百分点至6.0%。外界对经济前景的乐观情绪推升基准10年期美债收益率尾盘再次突破1.7%关口。随着疫苗接种率逐步上升，美国各州逐步放松了对社会和商业活动的限制，受疫情影响较大的休闲和酒店业就业增长最为明显，更多的求职者进入了劳动力市场，这可能为雇主在未来几个月加大招聘力度提供良好条件。美国正在为进一步全面开放做准备，美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)上周五宣布,完成疫苗接种的美国人在做好防护措施的前提下可以恢复国内外旅行。在劳动力市场强劲复苏的同时，制造业也进入了加速扩张阶段。美国3月美国供应管理学会（ISM）制造业指数报64.7，创1983年12月以来的最高水平。分项指标中库存指数迅速回落，供应商正在努力满足日益增长的市场需求。施瓦茨说，非农报告、制造业PMI和消费者信心调查数据都体现了实体经济的活力。在他看来，疫苗接种进度对前景将起到决定性作用。数据显示，目前全美疫苗接种速度已经攀升到每天近300万剂，近20%的美国人完成了接种。加之，美国总统拜登上周在匹茨堡公布了超过2万亿美元的基础设施建设计划，涉及修复道路和桥梁、扩大宽带互联网接入和增加研发资金。杰富瑞（Jefferies） 预计，新一轮刺激措施如果顺利落地，有望为经济增速增加0.5到1个百分点。施瓦茨向第一财经记者表示，高频数据显示，各行业复苏的广度和持续性正在扩大，他对美国经济在春夏季节维持高速扩张的前景乐观。对于经济过热及美联储政策转向的风险，他向记者重申了此前的看法，短期内通胀超频无法避免，但很难形成持续性压力。另一方面，美国劳动力市场距离复苏依然遥远，目前整体就业人数距离大流行前峰值低840万，服务业依然存在较大缺口，因此短期内美联储调整政策立场的条件并不具备。美股4月有望延续历史刚过去的一季度，道指和标普500指数累计上涨超5%并迭创历史新高，纳指同期上涨2.8%。板块轮动成为了今年美股行情的主线，能源、金融和工业板块跑赢大盘，而去年领跑的信息技术和通信服务板块表现落后。不少机构认为这一趋势有望持续下去。景顺首席全球市场策略师胡珀（Kristina Hooper）认为， 接下来经济可能会加速增长，这意味着能源、非必需消费品、原材料等板块将继续跑赢大盘，这些都是股市中对经济最敏感的领域。二季度周期股能否延续强势（资料来源：彭博）历史数据显示，4月美国股市表现是全年最好的月份之一。LPL Financial首席市场策略师德特里克（Ryan Detrick）在发给第一财经记者的报告中指出，去年4月，标普500指数上涨了12.7%，开启了本轮美股的牛市行情。统计显示，过去15年，美股有14次在4月上涨，是过去20年美股表现最好的月份，即使把时间段扩大至近70年，4月也在所有12个月份中排名第二。“没有什么比4月份股市走高更稳定的了，通常而言前三周市场往往会迎来加速冲刺。”德特里克指出。近20年美股4月平均涨幅最高（资料来源LPL Financial）当然历史并不会简单重复，经济复苏和通胀预期上升背后的美债市场波动可能继续成为短期内市场的一大不确定因素，今年一季度， 中长期美债收益率创下2016年以来最大季度涨幅，令估值高企的科技股遭遇资金抛售，并一度引发整体市场的恐慌杀跌。汇丰私人银行全球首席投资官塞尔斯（Willem Sels）表示，市场已经预料到了经济增长的前景，也对经济复苏和财政刺激将带来的通胀后果进行了评估，现在需要关注本轮通胀率的峰值有多高，在得到数据之前，我们可能会陷入波动性的持有模式。花旗的观点类似，认为市场的潜在风险在于，投资者正在警惕地关注通胀预期，并对美联储逆转宽松政策非常担忧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384797367,"gmtCreate":1613686109459,"gmtModify":1704883632572,"author":{"id":"3554427882058339","authorId":"3554427882058339","name":"garyyue88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4406e230703c6f02e712c59db56ad4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554427882058339","authorIdStr":"3554427882058339"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gg","listText":"gg","text":"gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384797367","repostId":"1121893320","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}