Relief Bounce vs. Risk-Off Reality: Market Still Must Prove a Bottom
@SmartReversals：
The catalyst for Friday’s turnaround emerged from dovish commentary by New York Fed President John Williams, whose remarks suggesting “near term” rate reduction prospects galvanized sentiment following Thursday’s sharp selloff. Futures markets swiftly repriced the probability of a December policy easing to 75%, jumping from roughly 40% just one day prior. However, this optimism confronts a significant challenge: Federal Reserve policymakers will navigate the December decision without critical October and November inflation and labor data, a consequence of the prolonged government shutdown. Economic anxiety is further reflected in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which deteriorated to 51 in November as concerns over persistent elevated prices and labor market stability