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- EuneneEunene
  ·2021-03-02
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  6 Reasons Alibaba Is Set To Soar And Too Cheap To Ignore
  Rising interest rates have caused a modest dip in stocks, and a pullback in tech stocks. Some individual companies have fallen into bear markets.Alibaba represents one of the highest quality hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today. It began the tech pullback highly undervalued and is now 42% undervalued.Post earnings, when management updated analysts on regulatory risks, the LT growth consensus from all 59 analysts went up from 22.3% to 26.0% CAGR. The growth outlook has improved.Yet BABA is
  6 Reasons Alibaba Is Set To Soar And Too Cheap To Ignore
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20:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Reasons Alibaba Is Set To Soar And Too Cheap To Ignore","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169004570","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Rising interest rates have caused a modest dip in stocks, and a pullback in tech stocks. Some individual companies have fallen into bear markets.Alibaba represents one of the highest quality  hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today. It began the tech pullback highly undervalued and is now 42% undervalued.Post earnings, when management updated analysts on regulatory risks, the LT growth consensus from all 59 analysts went up from 22.3% to 26.0% CAGR. The growth outlook has improved.Yet BABA is ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Rising interest rates have caused a modest dip in stocks, and a pullback in tech stocks. Some individual companies have fallen into bear markets.</li>\n <li>Alibaba represents one of the highest quality (though speculative) hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today. It began the tech pullback highly undervalued and is now 42% undervalued.</li>\n <li>Post earnings, when management updated analysts on regulatory risks, the LT growth consensus from all 59 analysts went up from 22.3% to 26.0% CAGR. The growth outlook has improved.</li>\n <li>Yet BABA is now trading at some of the lowest valuations in its history, resulting in 27% CAGR consensus return potential through 2027, and 6X the risk-adjusted expected returns of the S&amp;P 500 for the next five years.</li>\n <li>Thanks to the potential to become one of the best dividend growth blue-chips of tomorrow, I've invested almost $50,000 into BABA, and am willing to invest up to $100K if it keeps falling in the short term. For those comfortable with the complex risk profile of this company, and who use proper diversification and prudent risk management, BABA represents a potentially life-changing and rich retirement dream-making long-term investment opportunity.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Dividend Kings.Get started today »</li>\n</ul>\n<p>It's been a volatile few weeks for stocks, but tech stocks in particular.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54960030434467240b8c2876e6eaab19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the S&amp;P 500 is just barely off its recent all-time highs, the Nasdaq has fallen 6%. And of course, it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. Individual tech stocks are in corrections or even bear markets.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>tech stocks in general, are now in a pullback</li>\n <li>induced by rising rate concerns</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Why Rising Rates Are NOT A Concern For Prudent Long-Term Investors</p>\n<p>In the modern era, primarily the last 25 years, all stocks have done well in rising long-term rate environments.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790f8160df564e9692be64a3eb0e396f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Source: Ben Carlson)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>growth, value, small, large, didn't matter, stocks went up as rates rose</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>A study from JPMorgan(NYSE:JPM)found that from 1963 through 2019 stocks generally went up as long as 10-year yields were under 5%.</li>\n <li>Goldman Sachs'(NYSE:GS)head of quantitative research finds that the rate of interest rate is more important than the actual rate itself</li>\n <li>37+ basis points per month is the tipping point strongly correlated with short-term corrections</li>\n <li><b>in the last month, 10-year yields are up 39 basis points</b></li>\n <li>a level that is historically correlated with mild and short market declines</li>\n <li>in other words, this stock market dip is 100% normal and expected by prudent investors who understand market history</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Even so-called \"bond alternatives,\" such as REITs, are not hurt by rising long-term rates.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>From 1972 to 2018 the % of REIT total returns explained by 10-year yields was just 2%</li>\n <li>had you been able to predict interest rates with perfect precision, you couldn't have predicted actual REIT returns</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Prudent long-term investors know that you don't actually have to predict interest rates to be successful.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>long-term interest rates are just one of many factors that determine company success over time</li>\n <li>and have a relatively small impact on fundamental growth rates</li>\n <li>bond prices are 100% a function of credit quality and LT interest rates</li>\n <li>stock prices are 91% a function (over the long-term) of fundamentals and valuations</li>\n <li>other than generating income, stocks and bonds are different asset classes that are nothing alike</li>\n <li><b>no stock is EVER a true \"Bond alternative\" because of this fundamental fact</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6deb7a5ba69273298a5256674c2dd2e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ba0ed8c210f5a079516c7da4f40e80\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>If you focus on the trinity of yield + growth + valuation you are optimizing the fundamentals that drive 91% of long-term stock returns.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>combining the 3 core fundamentals of long-term total returns with prudent risk management = practicing disciplined financial science</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>My Personal Phoenix Retirement Portfolio Fundamentals (75% Dividend Stocks/25% Growth Stocks)</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>average quality: 10.7/12 SWAN vs. 10.9 average aristocrat</li>\n <li>average safety score: 4.8/5 very safe vs. 4.7 average aristocrat</li>\n <li>average credit rating: A- stable vs. A- stable average aristocrat (2.5% 30-year bankruptcy risk)</li>\n <li><b>the yield on cost: 3.8%</b></li>\n <li><b>current yield: 3.3% vs. 1.6% S&amp;P, 2.1%</b>dividend aristocrats (our equity benchmark) and<b>1.8% a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio</b></li>\n <li><b>Morningstar long-term growth forecast: 16.2% CAGR</b>vs. 6.4% S&amp;P 500 &amp; 7.0% dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li><b>Dividend growth forecast: 7.0% CAGR</b>= almost 4X the rate of inflation, double every decade (every 15-years in inflation-adjusted dollars)</li>\n <li>weighted average forward PE: 16.6 vs. 18.9 historical norm vs. 21.9 S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li><b>average discount to fair value (Morningstar estimate): 12%</b>vs. -32% S&amp;P 500 and -13% aristocrats</li>\n <li><b>5-year analyst consensus total return potential</b>: 3.3% yield + 16.2% CAGR long-term growth +2.6% CAGR valuation boost =<b>22.1%CAGR</b>vs. 6.5% S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li><b>Risk-Adjusted Expected Return: 16.2% CAGR</b>vs. 4.0% CAGR S&amp;P 500 (<b>4.0X market's expected return</b>)</li>\n <li><i><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential:</b></i><i>3.3% yield on cost + 16.2% growth =</i><i><b>19.5% CAGR</b></i><i>vs. 8.0% S&amp;P 500 and 9.1% dividend aristocrats</i></li>\n</ul>\n<p>How does a double the market's yield and LT growth consensus sound?</p>\n<p>How about the potential to quadruple the S&amp;P 500's returns over the next five years and more than double the market's long-term consensus return potential?</p>\n<p>You can't find that in any index fund, you have to build yourself. That's what DK Phoenix has been doing for almost a year, via a combination of opportunistic limit buying and dollar-cost averaging.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>I've invested about $500,000 of my life savings into the DK Phoenix strategy</li>\n <li>I'm definitely eating my own cooking</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The results so far have been spectacular. 40% gains from a portfolio that started out 100% bonds and has been buying every single day, including during record highs and overvalued markets.</p>\n<p>More importantly, this portfolio is generating an ocean of very safe, and steadily growing dividends.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>during the Great Recession S&amp;P 500 dividends down 25%</li>\n <li>this portfolio's dividends were flat</li>\n</ul>\n<p>However, I want to point out how the potential combination of strong yield + fantastic growth potential and attractive valuations means this portfolio is potentially set up for returns on par with the greatest investors in history.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1567a4569f51c6d5f83e6dd572db55c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>But not from some complex or risky asset you have to manage and tie up your money in for seven to 15 years (as with hedge funds), but a 100% liquid world-class blue-chip investment.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>blue-chip dividend investing at its finest</li>\n <li>high-probability/low risk buys that are 91% likely to meet our goals over the long-term</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Note that this portfolio is 25% growth stocks, though every growth company is one I expect to eventually pay a dividend.</p>\n<p>Whether it takes 5 or 50 years doesn't matter to me, because I have 75% of my portfolio generating over $20,000 per year in very safe income that rises in any economic or market condition.</p>\n<p>Why I'm Backing Up The Truck On Alibaba In This Tech Pullback</p>\n<p>My personal Phoenix retirement portfolio is what tracks every Dividend Kings Daily Blue-Chip Deal Video Recommendation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccec58a2a2e51918ad4619f5b10ae7b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I've bought Alibaba (BABA) 87 times since April 2020</li>\n <li>investing a total of about $47,000</li>\n <li>about 6.9% of my personal Phoenix portfolio (100 companies)</li>\n <li>my personal risk cap on BABA is $100,000 for the next 20 years, 10X less than what I plan to invest in Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)</li>\n <li>my goal is to invest $1 million into Amazon in my lifetime, as fast as I can</li>\n <li>but still a potentially life-changing and rich retirement making investment (see reason five)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Why am I willing to put up to $100,000 of my hard-earned savings to work in this speculative hyper-growth blue-chip?</p>\n<p>For the same 6 reasons that BABA at today's outrageously attractive valuation might be just what your diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio needs.</p>\n<p>Reason 1: An Extremely High-Quality Company</p>\n<p>The Dividend Kings motto is \"Quality first and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"</p>\n<p>Alibaba Overall Quality: 80% = 10/12 Speculative SWAN</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BABA</b></td>\n   <td><b>Final Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Balance Sheet Safety</td>\n   <td>88%</td>\n   <td>5/5 Very Safe</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Business Model</td>\n   <td>90%</td>\n   <td>3/3 Wide and Stable Moat</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Dependability</td>\n   <td>68%</td>\n   <td>2/4 Above-Average Dependability</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Total</b></td>\n   <td><b>80%</b></td>\n   <td><b>10 (SWAN) - Speculative</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source:Dividend Kings Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated at the start and end of each day</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>unchanged from last quarter</li>\n</ul>\n<p>DK overall quality scores factor in about 100 fundamental metrics covering</p>\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Alibaba Is the 136th Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 490)</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c259ff2db589224b1c883dfd27a06abd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated at the end of each day, sorted by overall quality score</i></p>\n<p>The DK Master List includes every dividend aristocrat, king, champion, and 12/12 Ultra SWAN quality company. Among the highest quality companies on earth, BABA ranks 136th.</p>\n<p>Alibaba's 80% quality score means its similar in quality to such 10/12 SWANs, 11/12 Super SWANs, and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General Dynamics (GD): non-speculative dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>salesforce.com (CRM): non - speculative hyper-growth</li>\n <li>Royal Bank of Canada (RY): non - speculative</li>\n <li>UnitedHealth Group (UNH): non - speculative</li>\n <li>Facebook (FB): non - speculative hyper-growth</li>\n <li>Cisco (CSCO): non - speculative</li>\n <li>Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) - non-speculative</li>\n <li>Lockheed Martin (LMT) - non -speculative</li>\n <li>Texas Instruments (TXN) - non-speculative</li>\n <li>British American Tobacco (BTI) - non-speculative</li>\n</ul>\n<p>All told, our quality score includes 137 fundamental metrics pertaining to dividend safety, long-term dependability, and total returns. Every metric was selected based on</p>\n<ul>\n <li>decades of empirical data</li>\n <li>the experience of the greatest investors in history</li>\n <li>eight rating agencies</li>\n <li>and what blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to a company's long-term success.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Our goal is to ensure we see fundamental deterioration coming before dividends get cut and a company, in a worst-case scenario, goes bankrupt.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>even dividend aristocrats can fail (just ask GE or CTL investors)</li>\n <li>even dividend aristocrats can go bankrupt (just ask Kmart or Winn-Dixie investors)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>There are no sacred cows in the Dividend Kings universe. Where the fundamentals lead we always follow.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>the essence of financial science</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Reason 2: Remarkable Long-Term Growth Potential</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6b6a726a78d0e0d012df46602fd475\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"132\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>according to FactSet the median LT growth consensus from all 59 analysts that cover BABA is 26.0% CAGR</li>\n <li>collectively these 59 experts know BABA better than anyone other than management</li>\n <li>pre-earnings growth consensus was 22.3%</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39eecccd04752aa11a27f8f8c8d6587\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>YCharts LT growth consensus is less bullish but still showing 20% hyper-growth</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9090a70c545a4c112f90b02d4de12131\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>5 analyst median FAST Graphs consensus is 25.3% CAGR LT growth</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Alibaba Medium-Term Growth Consensus</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>Fiscal 2021 Consensus</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2023 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2024 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2025 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>2026 consensus growth</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EPS</td>\n   <td>39%</td>\n   <td>15%</td>\n   <td>24%</td>\n   <td>23%</td>\n   <td>20%</td>\n   <td>16%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n   <td>-3%</td>\n   <td>162%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>11%</td>\n   <td>18%</td>\n   <td>29%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Free cash flow</td>\n   <td>52%</td>\n   <td>-1%</td>\n   <td>25%</td>\n   <td>24%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBITDA</td>\n   <td>58%</td>\n   <td>24%</td>\n   <td>23%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBIT (operating profit)</td>\n   <td>29%</td>\n   <td>40%</td>\n   <td>30%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>20% to 26% CAGR LT growth consensus is one of the fastest of any company on earth, much less a $650 billion behemoth like BABA.</p>\n<p>Where is BABA's remarkable growth expected to come from?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b04a7c47511897fa2d2e3170feaf91b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: earnings presentation)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba has almost 1 billion users</li>\n <li>and is one of the fastest-growing cloud computing companies on earth</li>\n <li>#1 in cloud computing in China</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d32d464a818f669520b792adf9971a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: earnings presentation)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Alibaba is the Amazon/Alphabet/Facebook/PayPal/Microsoft of China</b></li>\n <li>it's basically a superior quality Chinese Nasdaq index</li>\n <li>just as Amazon is a superior quality alternative to the US Nasdaq</li>\n <li>except that BABA has even more optionality than Amazon courtesy of several<b>\"Super Apps\"</b>of which the US has no equivalent</li>\n <li>Super Apps are basically all the apps you use on a daily basis in one, and in China, they dominate the lives of almost 1.5 billion people</li>\n <li>ecosystems of steroids, and the ultimate wide-moat businesses</li>\n <li>the only effective limitation is government regulations (more on this in the risk profile)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0062920c271ce804438eca217557aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>27% annualized revenue growth through 2026</li>\n <li>vs. 19% for Amazon</li>\n <li>34% CAGR cloud computing revenue growth</li>\n <li>core Chinese commerce sales growth 28% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\n<p>With almost 1.5 billion Chinese consumers to tap into, Alibaba's growth runway is very long.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>its optionality is among the best of any company on earth</li>\n <li>potentially superior to even Amazon's</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Alibaba Consensus Profitability Forecast</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>Sales</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBITDA</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBIT</b></td>\n   <td><b>Net Income</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>$71,376</td>\n   <td>$18,634.0</td>\n   <td>$22,077.0</td>\n   <td>$12,803.0</td>\n   <td>$20,902.0</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>$109,049.0</td>\n   <td>$30,666.0</td>\n   <td>$32,294.0</td>\n   <td>$18,332.0</td>\n   <td>$26,210.0</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>$142,453.0</td>\n   <td>$33,923.0</td>\n   <td>$40,043.0</td>\n   <td>$24,985.0</td>\n   <td>$27,169.0</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>$172,942.0</td>\n   <td>$39,671.0</td>\n   <td>$49,694.0</td>\n   <td>$33,156.0</td>\n   <td>$34,068.0</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>$215,267.0</td>\n   <td>$45,789.0</td>\n   <td>$59,475.0</td>\n   <td>$43,961.0</td>\n   <td>$43,031.0</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2025</td>\n   <td>$264,808.0</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$72,896.0</td>\n   <td>$57,133.0</td>\n   <td>$54,736.0</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2026</td>\n   <td>$296,476.0</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$95,192.0</td>\n   <td>$70,453.0</td>\n   <td>$63,654.0</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBITDA Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBIT Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>Net Margin</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>26.1%</td>\n   <td>30.9%</td>\n   <td>17.9%</td>\n   <td>29.3%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>28.1%</td>\n   <td>29.6%</td>\n   <td>16.8%</td>\n   <td>24.0%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>23.8%</td>\n   <td>28.1%</td>\n   <td>17.5%</td>\n   <td>19.1%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>22.9%</td>\n   <td>28.7%</td>\n   <td>19.2%</td>\n   <td>19.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>21.3%</td>\n   <td>27.6%</td>\n   <td>20.4%</td>\n   <td>20.0%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2025</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>27.5%</td>\n   <td>21.6%</td>\n   <td>20.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2026</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>32.1%</td>\n   <td>23.8%</td>\n   <td>21.5%</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is still relatively early in its growth cycle</li>\n <li>investing very heavily into R&amp;D and growth capex: $12.6 billion in 2020</li>\n <li>$37.2 billion growth spending consensus in 2026</li>\n <li>yet analysts expect already impressive profitability to remain relatively stable during the next five years</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Alibaba Consensus Potential Future Dividend Forecast</b></p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF/Share Consensus</b></td>\n   <td><b>Dividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Yield On Today's Cost</b></td>\n   <td><b>Consensus Yield Potential</b></td>\n   <td><b>2026 Consensus Price</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>$6.98</td>\n   <td>$3.49</td>\n   <td>1.47%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>$8.95</td>\n   <td>$4.48</td>\n   <td>1.88%</td>\n   <td>1.39%</td>\n   <td>$323.00</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>$10.70</td>\n   <td>$5.35</td>\n   <td>2.25%</td>\n   <td>1.41%</td>\n   <td>$379.00</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><i><b>2023</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>$13.84</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>$6.92</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>2.91%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>1.48%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>$466.00</b></i></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>if Alibaba were to start paying 50% of its FCF as dividends then by 2023 that would equal a yield on cost of almost 3% and 1.5% consensus yield</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Why do I expect BABA to eventually start paying dividends?</p>\n<p><b>Alibaba Consensus Balance Sheet Forecast</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61c78f5b92f0f7db55569cdd0cd8cd2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>despite spending $37 billion to fund growth in 2026, analysts expect BABA to end fiscal 2026 with $275 billion in cash and $260 billion in net cash</li>\n <li>more than Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)had when it started buying back stock and paying dividends</li>\n</ul>\n<p>What's more, by 2024 alone analysts expect BABA's annual free cash flow to reach $46 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a072c7a0e2793b347b635e08315d24bc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"148\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>if FCF grows at the 26% LT EPS growth consensus rate then by 2026 $73 billion in annual free cash flow</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The bottom line on BABA is that it's the #1 global digital retailer but so much more. And it has the potential to make patient long-term investors extremely wealthy and eventually fund comfortable retirements from future dividends alone.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>what I call my \"Jack Ma retirement plan\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Yet despite this incredible quality and growth potential, the market is mispricing BABA to a remarkable degree right now.</p>\n<p>Reason 3: One Of Most Undervalued Tech Stocks In The World</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>Historical Fair Value Multiples (all-years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Fiscal 2021</b></td>\n   <td><b>Fiscal 2022</b></td>\n   <td><b>Fiscal 2023</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Earnings</td>\n   <td>32.2</td>\n   <td>$334</td>\n   <td>$386</td>\n   <td>$480</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n   <td>24.6</td>\n   <td>$218</td>\n   <td>$572</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>23.1</td>\n   <td>$325</td>\n   <td>$362</td>\n   <td>$428</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Free Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>30.7</td>\n   <td>$338</td>\n   <td>$336</td>\n   <td>$421</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBITDA</td>\n   <td>33.2</td>\n   <td>$389</td>\n   <td>$485</td>\n   <td>$597</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBIT (operating income)</td>\n   <td>45.1</td>\n   <td>$298</td>\n   <td>$416</td>\n   <td>$541</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n   <td><b>$307</b></td>\n   <td><b>$413</b></td>\n   <td><b>$485</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Current Price</td>\n   <td>$237.76</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><i><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></i></p></td>\n   <td><i><b>23%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>42%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>51%</b></i></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><i>Upside To Fair Value</i></td>\n   <td><i>29%</i></td>\n   <td><i>74%</i></td>\n   <td><i>104%</i></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><i><b>Annualized Total Return Potential</b></i></p></td>\n   <td><i><b>NA</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>74%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>46%</b></i></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>BABA is trading at a 42% discount to fiscal 2022 consensus fundamentals (which ends March 2022)</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A return to average historical fair value by the end of March 2023 would result in a 46% CAGR total return</li>\n <li>2021 fair value range: $336 to $572</li>\n <li>2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $413</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Even using the most conservative fair value of $336, BABA is still 29% undervalued and a potentially good speculative buy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6cd6870a518767764bd87d37ec06d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>on a blended PE basis, BABA is now tied for the lowest valuation in its history on the NYSE</li>\n <li>in other words, if you've ever wanted to buy BABA, now is the time</li>\n <li>very likely to be near its eventual bottom</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I know that a lot of readers are now thinking \"sure, consensus estimates say BABA is a growth powerhouse, BUT what if analysts are wrong.\"</p>\n<p>There is one thing we know for certain about all growth consensus estimates.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>they are wrong</li>\n <li>the question is how much</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Alibaba Analyst Scorecard</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5201fe390f06c8cd94462a06114fdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1da8d579e9049d31188aafb07d3c47\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Despite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>the margin of error 20% to the upside and downside (modern era with lots of analyst coverage)</li>\n <li>long-term growth consensus range: 20.0% to 26% CAGR</li>\n <li>long-term growth consensus (from all 60 analysts ): 25.3% CAGR</li>\n <li>the margin of error adjusted long-term growth consensus range: 16% to 32% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e55ff4c0570b0156c5fc04134c6c90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>The current analyst consensus of 26.0% CAGR is similar to the growth rate of the last five years. The historical growth range since BABA came to the NYSE is 20% to 44% CAGR.</p>\n<p>The secular growth catalysts represented by BABA's dominance in Chinese digital payments, banking, cloud computing, online retail, digital marketing, etc., means that I consider the analyst growth consensus range reasonable and achievable.</p>\n<p>Stricter regulations are not expected to hamper BABA's growth significantly, according to the 60 analyst median consensus.</p>\n<p>Reason 4: Total Return Potential That Could Make You Rich</p>\n<ul>\n <li>for non-dividend stocks, total returns generated from growth and valuation mean reversion is the entire point for most investors</li>\n <li>BABA's consensus return potential is outstanding</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>BABA 2023 Consensus Return Potential</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba5fce782ee2484df31380823cbd08d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>If BABA grows as analysts expect through March 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then investors could expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>102% total returns</li>\n <li>39.9% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs. 2.9% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li><i><b>14X better than the S&amp;P 500</b></i></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Alibaba March 2027 Consensus Return Potential</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad665b05d566bc36268bf51f43f642a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research) - actual consensus EPS estimates through 2026</i></p>\n<p>If BABA grows as analysts expect through March 2027, and returns to historical fair value, then you could expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>324% total returns, more than quadrupling your investment</li>\n <li>26.8% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs. 6.5% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Over the very long term, here's what analysts expect.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 26.0% CAGR growth = 26.0% CAGR total returns (16% to 32% CAGR range)</li>\n <li>vs. 8.0% CAGR S&amp;P 500 and 9.1% CAGR dividend aristocrats</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Reason 5: Total Return Potential That Could Turn Thousands Into Tens Of Millions Over Decades</p>\n<p>What does potential hyper-growth sustained over many years and decades look like? Generation wealth, that can not just fund your rich retirement, but that of your children and grandchildren as well.</p>\n<p>Alibaba 30-Year Monte Carlo Simulation, Statistical Inflation+ Tax Adjusted Total Return Forecast</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf77d6747dcbef9c96c2442919fb370\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e592eb0d96f33779a576b8fee99193a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a3bf90aac22084eea55216a46577c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Monte Carlo simulation results for 5000 portfolios with $1,000 initial portfolio balance using available statistical model data from Jan 2015 to Dec 2020.Returns were modeled as correlated random samples from a multivariate normal distribution.The historical pre-tax return for the selected portfolio for this period was 21.09% mean return (14.38% CAGR) with a 36.62% standard deviation of annual returns.The simulated asset returns were adjusted based on provided tax assumptions.The simulated inflation model used historical inflation with a 1.75% mean and 0.94% standard deviation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data from Jan 2015 to Dec 2020.The generated inflation samples were correlated with simulated asset returns based on historical correlations.The available historical data for the simulation inputs was constrained by Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) [Oct 2014 - Feb 2021]. (Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>BABA's historical returns are depressed because it's currently in a bear market. Yet even if it delivers historical returns over the next 30 years, the standard retirement time frame there is an 80% statistical probability that</p>\n<ul>\n <li>$1,000 invested today becomes $6,500 to $324,000</li>\n <li>adjusted-for inflation and taxes</li>\n <li>assuming top tax bracket, including for my home state of MN</li>\n</ul>\n<p>What if BABA is able to sustain approximately 15% CAGR growth for longer than 30 years? Then a modest investment today could transform into generation wealth.</p>\n<p>Alibaba 75-Year Monte Carlo Simulation, Statistical Inflation+ Tax Adjusted Total Return Forecast</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/130bb2a9ff8bb6a1de235ce4fda182f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a1be76959eaedd5e25ed17b15702546\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>with a $75,000 total investment, made at the best valuations in five years, there is a very good statistical chance that I will eventually become an Alibaba millionaire</li>\n <li>there is a decent chance that my children and grandchildren will be Alibaba billionaires</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Reason 6: One Of The Most Reasonable And Prudent Growth Stocks You Can Buy Today</p>\n<p>I never recommend a company, much less put my own money at risk, without first knowing exactly how prudent a potential investment it is relative to the S&amp;P 500, most people's default alternative.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28d872260c41f72ddc16460a3024e8bf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"197\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The investment decision score is based on valuation and the three core principles of all successful long-term investors.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b7070d1af7586faee7c2814d82bb5c\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"774\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source:Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)</i></p>\n<p>BABA is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth stocks you can buy today. It offers</p>\n<ul>\n <li>objectively superior quality to the average S&amp;P 500 company (credit ratings and ROC)</li>\n <li>much faster growth (3 to 4X faster)</li>\n <li>much superior valuation (mirror image of the S&amp;P 500)</li>\n <li><b>6X the 5-year risk-adjusted expected returns</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>That's assuming you're</p>\n<ul>\n <li>comfortable with the risk profile (see dive section)</li>\n <li>own it within a diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Alibaba Risk Profile: Why BABA Isn't Right For Everyone<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3b51aa88280a43b2551902a5ae635ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Fundamental Risk Summary</p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the most pressing risks to the Alibaba investment thesis are a sustained slowdown in Chinese consumption patterns, e-commerce competition, increased regulatory scrutiny, and the possibility that ancillary businesses divert management's attention and reduce profitability.China's e-commerce landscape has become increasingly competitive, with Pinduoduo registering faster GMV and user growth than Alibaba with the support of Tencent's traffic and its group-buying traffic generation method, and JD.com positioning itself as a credible rival through its fulfillment capability, quality assurance, and its partnerships with Tencent. These platforms do not yet have Alibaba's scale in China, but they specialize in specific products or services, or markets, which might impede Alibaba's growth.Alibaba is also subject to increased online and mobile payment regulation. Financial regulators in China have continuously scrutinized online and mobile payment services. Alibaba has persistently faced the issue of counterfeit and infringing goods on its marketplaces. Hangzhou government's assigning of representatives to work inside Alibaba also raise concerns of some investors, although there is no evidence of consequence of value destruction for Alibaba.Expansion into peripheral businesses might distract management, reduce profitability without materially improve Alibaba's ecosystem. While we're optimistic about Alibaba's ability to become a preferred partner for international retailers and consumer brands looking to sell in China, the firm does not enjoy the same network effect and brand recognition in other countries, and it may face challenges directly expanding in these markets...Like many other Chinese Internet companies listed in overseas markets, Alibaba operates under a\n <b>variable interest entity, or VIE, structure</b>designed to let companies bypass Chinese legal restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors.Alibaba's foreign investors will essentially hold shares of Alibaba's VIE domiciled in the Cayman Islands. We don't expect any legal challenges to VIE structures by the Chinese government in the future. However, if the legitimacy of Alibaba's related VIE is found to violate applicable law or regulation, Chinese regulatory authorities might take action against the VIE, including revoking the business and operating licenses of Alibaba's subsidiaries or the VIE, or discontinuing, restricting, or restructuring Alibaba's operations. Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has the jurisdiction to regulate VIEs, we believe overseas investors would have limited legal rights...Despite\n <b>management's proven execution capabilities</b>,\n <b>we have concerns regarding Alibaba's corporate governance</b>, which is reflected in our Poor equity stewardship rating.In our view,\n <b>Alibaba is led by a capable and ambitious management team</b>. Founder and former executive chairman Jack Ma has been the keeper of the flame since the company's founding in 1999. Under his leadership, Alibaba has become China's leading e-commerce player, accounting for the majority of transaction volume for China's online shopping industry.Over the past decade, Taobao has transformed the shopping behaviors of millions of Chinese consumers. We believe management has also done a commendable job developing and preserving Alibaba's wide economic moat by building several other leading online marketplaces and platforms such a Tmall, Juhuasuan, Alibaba.com, AliExpress, Alipay, AliCloud, and Ele.me. Although the company faces a potentially uneven long-term economic backdrop and new sources of competition in China,\n <b>we remain confident that Alibaba can sustain its wide economic moat over the long term under its existing leadership.</b>Ma's decision to step away from Alibaba's executive chairman role in 2019 and the company's board of directors will not affect our positive long-term bias for two reasons. First,\n <b>we believe recent results demonstrate that Alibaba has a deep management bench</b>,\n <b>including current CEO Daniel Zhang</b>(who was appointed CEO of Alibaba Group in May 2015, will assume the chairman role in 2019, and played a central role in the development of the Singles Day shopping event, building the Tmall platform from a regional to global business-to-consumer platform, and deploying several of Alibaba's \"New Retail\" strategies) and executive vice chairman Joe Tsai. Second, we believe Ma's involvement with the Alibaba Partnership--a group of core company managers--will allow him to stay involved with key strategic decisions...We harbor concerns about Alibaba's partnership structure, which might jeopardize the board's independence.The partnership is led by a committee of five, including Ma, executive vice chairman Joe Tsai, and CEO Daniel Zhang. The Alibaba Partnership has the exclusive right to nominate or appoint up to a simple majority of the members of its board of directors.Any board candidate it nominates is presented to shareholders for voting. If the candidate is not elected by shareholders, the partnership can appoint another candidate without a vote. That candidate will serve as an interim director until the next annual general meeting, where either the same candidate or yet another nominee proposed by Alibaba partners will stand for election.The current board of directors is composed of 11 directors, five of which are Alibaba Partnership nominees. Alibaba Partnership can also nominate or appoint two additional directors to the board, which would increase the number of directors to 13, and the Partnership will get majority control of the board.\n <b>The Partnership essentially controls the board and limits the influence of outside shareholders</b>.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\n<p>MSCI, Reuters and Morningstar, as well as S&amp;P, Fitch, and Moody's have concerns about BABA's corporate governance, which is factored into each company's respective rating on BABA's credit and material ESG risk (more on that later).</p>\n<ul>\n <li>all Chinese companies are speculative</li>\n <li>thus requiring a 5% higher margin of safety to be a potentially good buy (20% in the case of BABA)</li>\n <li>investors not comfortable with BABA's complex risk profile should not own it</li>\n <li>no company is right for everyone</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Alibaba ESG Risk Analysis: An Important Component Of A Company's Overall Financial Risk Profile (But Especially For Chinese Tech Companies)</p>\n<ul>\n <li>critically important to anyone concerned about corporate governance and potential accounting fraud</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In today's hyperpolarized political climate, some investors consider ESG to be political/personal ethics/opinion-driven nonsense.</p>\n<p>ESG as measured by institutions is NOT simply the concern of \"woke\" and \"on-trend\" hippy millennials trying to virtue signal to impress Silicon Valley venture capitalists or social media followers.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Companies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI\n</blockquote>\n<p>According to the world's best risk-assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers ESG important and builds it into their safety models and ratings.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>BlackRock - #1 asset manager in the world</li>\n <li>MSCI - #1 indexing giant</li>\n <li>Morningstar</li>\n <li>Reuters/Refinitiv</li>\n <li>ISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) - #1 corporate proxy firm on earth</li>\n <li>S&amp;P</li>\n <li>Fitch</li>\n <li>Moody's</li>\n <li>DBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)</li>\n <li>AMBest (insurance industry rating agency)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The reason some investors consider ESG to be political is that some investors consider some industries to be inherently \"evil\" such as tobacco, energy, big tech, pharma, health insurers, fast-food, snack foods, and defense contractors.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>such opinions are personal and based on individual ethics</li>\n <li><b>ESG scores as calculated by institutions are quantitatively based and focused on only fundamental financial risks to the underlying business</b></li>\n <li>they are compared against industry peers and as objective as can be realistically expected</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Personal ethical or political opinions are not what rating agencies or asset managers care about.</p>\n<p>MSCI rates over 2,800 global companies on 37 ESG metrics, using a quantitative and qualitative approach, just as all the rating agencies do, and Ben Graham recommended.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Our global team of 185 experienced research analysts assesses thousands of data points across 37 ESG Key Issues, focusing on the intersection between a company's core business and the industry issues that can create significant risks and opportunities for the company. Companies are rated on an AAA-CCC scale\n <b>relative to the standards and performance of their industry peers</b>...\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298cf61010c39363fd5dc1b3438f0774\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n The MSCI ESG rating model seeks to answer four key questions about companies:• What are the most significant ESG risks and opportunities facing a company and its industry?• How exposed is the company to those key risks and/or opportunities?• How well is the company managing key risks and opportunities?• What is the overall picture for the company and how does it compare to its global industry peers?\" - MSCI\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3bf10cdfd7ab0fe07e7c636b3eded9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: MSCI)</i></p>\n<p><b>The ESG scores you find from the best risk-assessors in the world are not opinions based on political correctness.They use a quantitative approach to fundamental company risk analysis.</b>One based on decades of historical data pertaining to minimizing the risk of fundamental deterioration, bankruptcy, and stock/bond investors getting wiped out.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ESG risk ratings + trends make up about 20% of the overall DK quality score for most companies that have an ESG rating from MSCI, Morningstar/Sustainalytics, and Reuters/Refinitiv</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/918fd6ab7c2e2163bd8d547d050d75d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8bd15a9cc3aea38257b3c9645d424f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: MSCI)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>based on the 12 material sustainability factors MSCI's 185 industry experts believe is important to financial risk for midstream companies, BABA scores are in the bottom 37% of its peers (below average)</li>\n <li>that score is has been improving over the last four years</li>\n <li>though it dipped one level in the 2020 annual update</li>\n</ul>\n<p>How Morningstar/Sustainalytics Assesses Long-Term ESG Financial Risk</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Morningstar/Sustainalytics cares about material ESG variables that are historically correlated to a company's enterprise value (market cap + net debt)</li>\n <li>Financial risk NOT political/personal ethical opinions are what Morningstar assesses</li>\n <li>20 fundamental metrics analyzed, compared to industry peers</li>\n <li>100 point risk scale</li>\n <li>lower is better</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6235ae87804a6aa4155b7553cf0470ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22bc0cb2ca3614062e1aaabda81de4f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b225070612fbf42d76647657fd9c799\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d7fbe67e46b7732bad777d103ec779\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e030c1a04fb5a8ba813bcf1831db84b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Every controversy surrounding BABA is factored into Morningstar ESG risk rating. That includes the controversies around anti-trust practices for which it's now under investigation by Chinese regulators.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Morningstar considers this to be a medium ESG risk industry</li>\n <li>and management is doing an average job of managing that risk</li>\n <li>Morningstar scores BABA 26.2 \"medium risk\" in the bottom 25% of tech companies and in the top 43% of all 13,645 companies Morningstar rates</li>\n <li>risk rating increased from 24.6 to 26.2 in the past year due to increasing regulatory concerns</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Reuters/Refinitiv also provides ESG financial risk ratings.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>over 150 industry experts covering over 7,000 global companies</li>\n <li>based on 400+ fundamental metrics</li>\n <li>and 178 materially important financial ESG risk factors</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7da4560ef863e32a307af7f3a93b28d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/078e47b8a22efff637d578f67d1bdbbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ac2395f9786b77c8f795cd0c659d9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"847\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: Refinitiv)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c212bc0cfadad173dc51c91fbee9438\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>(Source: Interactive Brokers)</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Reuters ranks BABA as in the bottom 30% of its peers on actual financial ESG risk</li>\n <li>in the top 40% in terms of environmental issues</li>\n <li>bottom 30% for social</li>\n <li>bottom 20% for corporate governance</li>\n <li>and near the very bottom of its industry on controversies</li>\n <li>for a combined score that's in the bottom 10% of its peers</li>\n <li>which is why BABA's dependability score fell from 75% to 68% and resulted in a downgrade from 11/12 to 10/12 speculative quality (about two months ago)</li>\n <li>and why I'm looking to invest a maximum of $100K into BABA vs. $1 million into far lower risk Amazon</li>\n <li>risks with BABA are far higher than with AMZN</li>\n</ul>\n<p>When no less than 10 of the world's most reputable risk assessors say something is important to long-term financial risk for a company you can be sure that Dividend Kings will include it in our 61 metric safety model and 126 point quality score (converted to a 100% scale).</p>\n<ul>\n <li>there is no such thing as a \"risk-free\" company</li>\n <li>factoring in all material financial risks is how you determine whether a company is appropriate for your needs</li>\n <li>and how we determine the margin of safety required to compensate us for that risk and thus determine potentially good buy prices or better</li>\n <li>no average investor can ever be a true expert on a company</li>\n <li>but DK knows where to find the most reliable expert data to create a comprehensive safety, dependability, and quality score that includes every major risk factor a company has</li>\n</ul>\n<p>No less than Ben Graham, the father of securities analysis considered qualitative factors critical to making prudent long-term investing decisions.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>... a satisfactory statistical exhibition is a necessary though by no means a sufficient condition for a favorable decision by the analyst.\"</i>-Benjamin Graham, Security Analysis (1951 ed.), Page 76\n</blockquote>\n<p>In other words, Graham considered a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, looking at the past, present, and likely future, to be the optimal strategy for making sound long-term investments.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Dividend Kings uses risk ratings from eight of the world's most reputable agencies</li>\n <li>if fundamentals weaken our model will know it and our scores, ratings, and recommendations will change accordingly</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Bottom Line: Alibaba Is Set To Soar And Too Cheap To Ignore</p>\n<p>I can't tell you what any stock will do over the next few weeks, months or even a year or two.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>according to JPMorgan Asset Management, 92% of 12-month returns are a function of luck</li>\n <li>over 10+ years 90% to 91% of returns are a function of fundamentals</li>\n <li>over the long-term fundamentals are 11X as powerful as luck</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Alibaba represented one of the most undervalued hyper-growth tech blue-chips before this interest rate pullback in tech began.</p>\n<p>Alibaba's recent decline has been sharper than many peers, which isn't justified by its recent earnings results, or overall fundamentals.</p>\n<p>The long-term growth outlook has gotten better, not worse.</p>\n<p>While BABA will always be an inherently speculative company, for those comfortable with the risk profile, a 42% margin of safety more than compensate for the risks you're facing.</p>\n<p>In the coming years, BABA has the potential to deliver Buffett-like returns that are almost 6X the risk-adjusted returns of the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>Eventually, the cash pile will grow so large, the company will be forced to start buying back stocks and paying dividends.</p>\n<p>A modest investment in BABA today could fund a comfortable or even lavish retirement purely from future dividends in a few decades.</p>\n<p>Prudent long-term investors know that through a disciplined application of financial science we never have to pray for luck. We make our own luck over time.</p>\n<p>When it comes to Alibaba, as close to a perfect hyper-growth blue-chip investment as exists on Wall Street today, the time to make our own luck is now.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Reasons Alibaba Is Set To Soar And Too Cheap To Ignore</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Reasons Alibaba Is Set To Soar And Too Cheap To Ignore\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-02 20:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410621-six-reasons-alibaba-is-too-cheap-to-ignore><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nRising interest rates have caused a modest dip in stocks, and a pullback in tech stocks. Some individual companies have fallen into bear markets.\nAlibaba represents one of the highest quality...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410621-six-reasons-alibaba-is-too-cheap-to-ignore\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410621-six-reasons-alibaba-is-too-cheap-to-ignore","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1169004570","content_text":"Summary\n\nRising interest rates have caused a modest dip in stocks, and a pullback in tech stocks. Some individual companies have fallen into bear markets.\nAlibaba represents one of the highest quality (though speculative) hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today. It began the tech pullback highly undervalued and is now 42% undervalued.\nPost earnings, when management updated analysts on regulatory risks, the LT growth consensus from all 59 analysts went up from 22.3% to 26.0% CAGR. The growth outlook has improved.\nYet BABA is now trading at some of the lowest valuations in its history, resulting in 27% CAGR consensus return potential through 2027, and 6X the risk-adjusted expected returns of the S&P 500 for the next five years.\nThanks to the potential to become one of the best dividend growth blue-chips of tomorrow, I've invested almost $50,000 into BABA, and am willing to invest up to $100K if it keeps falling in the short term. For those comfortable with the complex risk profile of this company, and who use proper diversification and prudent risk management, BABA represents a potentially life-changing and rich retirement dream-making long-term investment opportunity.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Dividend Kings.Get started today »\n\nIt's been a volatile few weeks for stocks, but tech stocks in particular.\nWhile the S&P 500 is just barely off its recent all-time highs, the Nasdaq has fallen 6%. And of course, it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. Individual tech stocks are in corrections or even bear markets.\n\ntech stocks in general, are now in a pullback\ninduced by rising rate concerns\n\nWhy Rising Rates Are NOT A Concern For Prudent Long-Term Investors\nIn the modern era, primarily the last 25 years, all stocks have done well in rising long-term rate environments.\n(Source: Ben Carlson)\n\ngrowth, value, small, large, didn't matter, stocks went up as rates rose\n\n\nA study from JPMorgan(NYSE:JPM)found that from 1963 through 2019 stocks generally went up as long as 10-year yields were under 5%.\nGoldman Sachs'(NYSE:GS)head of quantitative research finds that the rate of interest rate is more important than the actual rate itself\n37+ basis points per month is the tipping point strongly correlated with short-term corrections\nin the last month, 10-year yields are up 39 basis points\na level that is historically correlated with mild and short market declines\nin other words, this stock market dip is 100% normal and expected by prudent investors who understand market history\n\nEven so-called \"bond alternatives,\" such as REITs, are not hurt by rising long-term rates.\n\nFrom 1972 to 2018 the % of REIT total returns explained by 10-year yields was just 2%\nhad you been able to predict interest rates with perfect precision, you couldn't have predicted actual REIT returns\n\nPrudent long-term investors know that you don't actually have to predict interest rates to be successful.\n\nlong-term interest rates are just one of many factors that determine company success over time\nand have a relatively small impact on fundamental growth rates\nbond prices are 100% a function of credit quality and LT interest rates\nstock prices are 91% a function (over the long-term) of fundamentals and valuations\nother than generating income, stocks and bonds are different asset classes that are nothing alike\nno stock is EVER a true \"Bond alternative\" because of this fundamental fact\n\n\n\nIf you focus on the trinity of yield + growth + valuation you are optimizing the fundamentals that drive 91% of long-term stock returns.\n\ncombining the 3 core fundamentals of long-term total returns with prudent risk management = practicing disciplined financial science\n\nMy Personal Phoenix Retirement Portfolio Fundamentals (75% Dividend Stocks/25% Growth Stocks)\n\naverage quality: 10.7/12 SWAN vs. 10.9 average aristocrat\naverage safety score: 4.8/5 very safe vs. 4.7 average aristocrat\naverage credit rating: A- stable vs. A- stable average aristocrat (2.5% 30-year bankruptcy risk)\nthe yield on cost: 3.8%\ncurrent yield: 3.3% vs. 1.6% S&P, 2.1%dividend aristocrats (our equity benchmark) and1.8% a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio\nMorningstar long-term growth forecast: 16.2% CAGRvs. 6.4% S&P 500 & 7.0% dividend aristocrats\nDividend growth forecast: 7.0% CAGR= almost 4X the rate of inflation, double every decade (every 15-years in inflation-adjusted dollars)\nweighted average forward PE: 16.6 vs. 18.9 historical norm vs. 21.9 S&P 500\naverage discount to fair value (Morningstar estimate): 12%vs. -32% S&P 500 and -13% aristocrats\n5-year analyst consensus total return potential: 3.3% yield + 16.2% CAGR long-term growth +2.6% CAGR valuation boost =22.1%CAGRvs. 6.5% S&P 500\nRisk-Adjusted Expected Return: 16.2% CAGRvs. 4.0% CAGR S&P 500 (4.0X market's expected return)\nLT Consensus Total Return Potential:3.3% yield on cost + 16.2% growth =19.5% CAGRvs. 8.0% S&P 500 and 9.1% dividend aristocrats\n\nHow does a double the market's yield and LT growth consensus sound?\nHow about the potential to quadruple the S&P 500's returns over the next five years and more than double the market's long-term consensus return potential?\nYou can't find that in any index fund, you have to build yourself. That's what DK Phoenix has been doing for almost a year, via a combination of opportunistic limit buying and dollar-cost averaging.\n\nI've invested about $500,000 of my life savings into the DK Phoenix strategy\nI'm definitely eating my own cooking\n\nThe results so far have been spectacular. 40% gains from a portfolio that started out 100% bonds and has been buying every single day, including during record highs and overvalued markets.\nMore importantly, this portfolio is generating an ocean of very safe, and steadily growing dividends.\n\nduring the Great Recession S&P 500 dividends down 25%\nthis portfolio's dividends were flat\n\nHowever, I want to point out how the potential combination of strong yield + fantastic growth potential and attractive valuations means this portfolio is potentially set up for returns on par with the greatest investors in history.\n\nBut not from some complex or risky asset you have to manage and tie up your money in for seven to 15 years (as with hedge funds), but a 100% liquid world-class blue-chip investment.\n\nblue-chip dividend investing at its finest\nhigh-probability/low risk buys that are 91% likely to meet our goals over the long-term\n\nNote that this portfolio is 25% growth stocks, though every growth company is one I expect to eventually pay a dividend.\nWhether it takes 5 or 50 years doesn't matter to me, because I have 75% of my portfolio generating over $20,000 per year in very safe income that rises in any economic or market condition.\nWhy I'm Backing Up The Truck On Alibaba In This Tech Pullback\nMy personal Phoenix retirement portfolio is what tracks every Dividend Kings Daily Blue-Chip Deal Video Recommendation.\n\n\nI've bought Alibaba (BABA) 87 times since April 2020\ninvesting a total of about $47,000\nabout 6.9% of my personal Phoenix portfolio (100 companies)\nmy personal risk cap on BABA is $100,000 for the next 20 years, 10X less than what I plan to invest in Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)\nmy goal is to invest $1 million into Amazon in my lifetime, as fast as I can\nbut still a potentially life-changing and rich retirement making investment (see reason five)\n\nWhy am I willing to put up to $100,000 of my hard-earned savings to work in this speculative hyper-growth blue-chip?\nFor the same 6 reasons that BABA at today's outrageously attractive valuation might be just what your diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio needs.\nReason 1: An Extremely High-Quality Company\nThe Dividend Kings motto is \"Quality first and prudent valuation and sound risk management always.\"\nAlibaba Overall Quality: 80% = 10/12 Speculative SWAN\n\n\n\nBABA\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nBalance Sheet Safety\n88%\n5/5 Very Safe\n\n\nBusiness Model\n90%\n3/3 Wide and Stable Moat\n\n\nDependability\n68%\n2/4 Above-Average Dependability\n\n\nTotal\n80%\n10 (SWAN) - Speculative\n\n\n\n(Source:Dividend Kings Safety & Quality Tool) updated at the start and end of each day\n\nunchanged from last quarter\n\nDK overall quality scores factor in about 100 fundamental metrics covering\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud\nprofitability and business model\nlong-term sustainability\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\n\nAlibaba Is the 136th Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 490)\n\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated at the end of each day, sorted by overall quality score\nThe DK Master List includes every dividend aristocrat, king, champion, and 12/12 Ultra SWAN quality company. Among the highest quality companies on earth, BABA ranks 136th.\nAlibaba's 80% quality score means its similar in quality to such 10/12 SWANs, 11/12 Super SWANs, and 12/12 Ultra SWANs as\n\nGeneral Dynamics (GD): non-speculative dividend aristocrat\nsalesforce.com (CRM): non - speculative hyper-growth\nRoyal Bank of Canada (RY): non - speculative\nUnitedHealth Group (UNH): non - speculative\nFacebook (FB): non - speculative hyper-growth\nCisco (CSCO): non - speculative\nMagellan Midstream Partners (MMP) - non-speculative\nLockheed Martin (LMT) - non -speculative\nTexas Instruments (TXN) - non-speculative\nBritish American Tobacco (BTI) - non-speculative\n\nAll told, our quality score includes 137 fundamental metrics pertaining to dividend safety, long-term dependability, and total returns. Every metric was selected based on\n\ndecades of empirical data\nthe experience of the greatest investors in history\neight rating agencies\nand what blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to a company's long-term success.\n\nOur goal is to ensure we see fundamental deterioration coming before dividends get cut and a company, in a worst-case scenario, goes bankrupt.\n\neven dividend aristocrats can fail (just ask GE or CTL investors)\neven dividend aristocrats can go bankrupt (just ask Kmart or Winn-Dixie investors)\n\nThere are no sacred cows in the Dividend Kings universe. Where the fundamentals lead we always follow.\n\nthe essence of financial science\n\nReason 2: Remarkable Long-Term Growth Potential\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\naccording to FactSet the median LT growth consensus from all 59 analysts that cover BABA is 26.0% CAGR\ncollectively these 59 experts know BABA better than anyone other than management\npre-earnings growth consensus was 22.3%\n\n\n\nYCharts LT growth consensus is less bullish but still showing 20% hyper-growth\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\n5 analyst median FAST Graphs consensus is 25.3% CAGR LT growth\n\nAlibaba Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\nMetric\nFiscal 2021 Consensus\n2022 consensus growth\n2023 consensus growth\n2024 consensus growth\n2025 consensus growth\n2026 consensus growth\n\n\nEPS\n39%\n15%\n24%\n23%\n20%\n16%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n-3%\n162%\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n45%\n11%\n18%\n29%\nNA\nNA\n\n\nFree cash flow\n52%\n-1%\n25%\n24%\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBITDA\n58%\n24%\n23%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nEBIT (operating profit)\n29%\n40%\n30%\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research Terminal)\n20% to 26% CAGR LT growth consensus is one of the fastest of any company on earth, much less a $650 billion behemoth like BABA.\nWhere is BABA's remarkable growth expected to come from?\n\n(Source: earnings presentation)\n\nAlibaba has almost 1 billion users\nand is one of the fastest-growing cloud computing companies on earth\n#1 in cloud computing in China\n\n\n(Source: earnings presentation)\n\nAlibaba is the Amazon/Alphabet/Facebook/PayPal/Microsoft of China\nit's basically a superior quality Chinese Nasdaq index\njust as Amazon is a superior quality alternative to the US Nasdaq\nexcept that BABA has even more optionality than Amazon courtesy of several\"Super Apps\"of which the US has no equivalent\nSuper Apps are basically all the apps you use on a daily basis in one, and in China, they dominate the lives of almost 1.5 billion people\necosystems of steroids, and the ultimate wide-moat businesses\nthe only effective limitation is government regulations (more on this in the risk profile)\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\n27% annualized revenue growth through 2026\nvs. 19% for Amazon\n34% CAGR cloud computing revenue growth\ncore Chinese commerce sales growth 28% CAGR\n\nWith almost 1.5 billion Chinese consumers to tap into, Alibaba's growth runway is very long.\n\nits optionality is among the best of any company on earth\npotentially superior to even Amazon's\n\nAlibaba Consensus Profitability Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$71,376\n$18,634.0\n$22,077.0\n$12,803.0\n$20,902.0\n\n\n2021\n$109,049.0\n$30,666.0\n$32,294.0\n$18,332.0\n$26,210.0\n\n\n2022\n$142,453.0\n$33,923.0\n$40,043.0\n$24,985.0\n$27,169.0\n\n\n2023\n$172,942.0\n$39,671.0\n$49,694.0\n$33,156.0\n$34,068.0\n\n\n2024\n$215,267.0\n$45,789.0\n$59,475.0\n$43,961.0\n$43,031.0\n\n\n2025\n$264,808.0\nNA\n$72,896.0\n$57,133.0\n$54,736.0\n\n\n2026\n$296,476.0\nNA\n$95,192.0\n$70,453.0\n$63,654.0\n\n\n\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n26.1%\n30.9%\n17.9%\n29.3%\n\n\n2021\n28.1%\n29.6%\n16.8%\n24.0%\n\n\n2022\n23.8%\n28.1%\n17.5%\n19.1%\n\n\n2023\n22.9%\n28.7%\n19.2%\n19.7%\n\n\n2024\n21.3%\n27.6%\n20.4%\n20.0%\n\n\n2025\nNA\n27.5%\n21.6%\n20.7%\n\n\n2026\nNA\n32.1%\n23.8%\n21.5%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nAlibaba is still relatively early in its growth cycle\ninvesting very heavily into R&D and growth capex: $12.6 billion in 2020\n$37.2 billion growth spending consensus in 2026\nyet analysts expect already impressive profitability to remain relatively stable during the next five years\n\nAlibaba Consensus Potential Future Dividend Forecast\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF/Share Consensus\nDividend Per Share (50% Payout Ratio)\nYield On Today's Cost\nConsensus Yield Potential\n2026 Consensus Price\n\n\n2020\n$6.98\n$3.49\n1.47%\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2021\n$8.95\n$4.48\n1.88%\n1.39%\n$323.00\n\n\n2022\n$10.70\n$5.35\n2.25%\n1.41%\n$379.00\n\n\n2023\n$13.84\n$6.92\n2.91%\n1.48%\n$466.00\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nif Alibaba were to start paying 50% of its FCF as dividends then by 2023 that would equal a yield on cost of almost 3% and 1.5% consensus yield\n\nWhy do I expect BABA to eventually start paying dividends?\nAlibaba Consensus Balance Sheet Forecast\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\ndespite spending $37 billion to fund growth in 2026, analysts expect BABA to end fiscal 2026 with $275 billion in cash and $260 billion in net cash\nmore than Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)had when it started buying back stock and paying dividends\n\nWhat's more, by 2024 alone analysts expect BABA's annual free cash flow to reach $46 billion.\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\n\nif FCF grows at the 26% LT EPS growth consensus rate then by 2026 $73 billion in annual free cash flow\n\nThe bottom line on BABA is that it's the #1 global digital retailer but so much more. And it has the potential to make patient long-term investors extremely wealthy and eventually fund comfortable retirements from future dividends alone.\n\nwhat I call my \"Jack Ma retirement plan\"\n\nYet despite this incredible quality and growth potential, the market is mispricing BABA to a remarkable degree right now.\nReason 3: One Of Most Undervalued Tech Stocks In The World\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value Multiples (all-years)\nFiscal 2021\nFiscal 2022\nFiscal 2023\n\n\nEarnings\n32.2\n$334\n$386\n$480\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n24.6\n$218\n$572\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n23.1\n$325\n$362\n$428\n\n\nFree Cash Flow\n30.7\n$338\n$336\n$421\n\n\nEBITDA\n33.2\n$389\n$485\n$597\n\n\nEBIT (operating income)\n45.1\n$298\n$416\n$541\n\n\nAverage\n$307\n$413\n$485\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$237.76\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n23%\n42%\n51%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n29%\n74%\n104%\n\n\nAnnualized Total Return Potential\nNA\n74%\n46%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBABA is trading at a 42% discount to fiscal 2022 consensus fundamentals (which ends March 2022)\n\nA return to average historical fair value by the end of March 2023 would result in a 46% CAGR total return\n2021 fair value range: $336 to $572\n2021 Harmonic Average Fair Value (smooths out outliers): $413\n\nEven using the most conservative fair value of $336, BABA is still 29% undervalued and a potentially good speculative buy.\n(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\non a blended PE basis, BABA is now tied for the lowest valuation in its history on the NYSE\nin other words, if you've ever wanted to buy BABA, now is the time\nvery likely to be near its eventual bottom\n\nI know that a lot of readers are now thinking \"sure, consensus estimates say BABA is a growth powerhouse, BUT what if analysts are wrong.\"\nThere is one thing we know for certain about all growth consensus estimates.\n\nthey are wrong\nthe question is how much\n\nAlibaba Analyst Scorecard\n\n\nDespite a highly complex business model analysts are relatively good at forecasting BABA's growth. Specifically, the company has only missed two-year earnings growth forecasts twice out of the six years that analysts have offered them.\n\nthe margin of error 20% to the upside and downside (modern era with lots of analyst coverage)\nlong-term growth consensus range: 20.0% to 26% CAGR\nlong-term growth consensus (from all 60 analysts ): 25.3% CAGR\nthe margin of error adjusted long-term growth consensus range: 16% to 32% CAGR\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nThe current analyst consensus of 26.0% CAGR is similar to the growth rate of the last five years. The historical growth range since BABA came to the NYSE is 20% to 44% CAGR.\nThe secular growth catalysts represented by BABA's dominance in Chinese digital payments, banking, cloud computing, online retail, digital marketing, etc., means that I consider the analyst growth consensus range reasonable and achievable.\nStricter regulations are not expected to hamper BABA's growth significantly, according to the 60 analyst median consensus.\nReason 4: Total Return Potential That Could Make You Rich\n\nfor non-dividend stocks, total returns generated from growth and valuation mean reversion is the entire point for most investors\nBABA's consensus return potential is outstanding\n\nBABA 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through March 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then investors could expect\n\n102% total returns\n39.9% CAGR returns\nvs. 2.9% CAGR S&P 500\n14X better than the S&P 500\n\nAlibaba March 2027 Consensus Return Potential\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research) - actual consensus EPS estimates through 2026\nIf BABA grows as analysts expect through March 2027, and returns to historical fair value, then you could expect\n\n324% total returns, more than quadrupling your investment\n26.8% CAGR returns\nvs. 6.5% CAGR S&P 500\n\nOver the very long term, here's what analysts expect.\n\n0% yield + 26.0% CAGR growth = 26.0% CAGR total returns (16% to 32% CAGR range)\nvs. 8.0% CAGR S&P 500 and 9.1% CAGR dividend aristocrats\n\nReason 5: Total Return Potential That Could Turn Thousands Into Tens Of Millions Over Decades\nWhat does potential hyper-growth sustained over many years and decades look like? Generation wealth, that can not just fund your rich retirement, but that of your children and grandchildren as well.\nAlibaba 30-Year Monte Carlo Simulation, Statistical Inflation+ Tax Adjusted Total Return Forecast\n\n\n\nMonte Carlo simulation results for 5000 portfolios with $1,000 initial portfolio balance using available statistical model data from Jan 2015 to Dec 2020.Returns were modeled as correlated random samples from a multivariate normal distribution.The historical pre-tax return for the selected portfolio for this period was 21.09% mean return (14.38% CAGR) with a 36.62% standard deviation of annual returns.The simulated asset returns were adjusted based on provided tax assumptions.The simulated inflation model used historical inflation with a 1.75% mean and 0.94% standard deviation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data from Jan 2015 to Dec 2020.The generated inflation samples were correlated with simulated asset returns based on historical correlations.The available historical data for the simulation inputs was constrained by Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) [Oct 2014 - Feb 2021]. (Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\n\nBABA's historical returns are depressed because it's currently in a bear market. Yet even if it delivers historical returns over the next 30 years, the standard retirement time frame there is an 80% statistical probability that\n\n$1,000 invested today becomes $6,500 to $324,000\nadjusted-for inflation and taxes\nassuming top tax bracket, including for my home state of MN\n\nWhat if BABA is able to sustain approximately 15% CAGR growth for longer than 30 years? Then a modest investment today could transform into generation wealth.\nAlibaba 75-Year Monte Carlo Simulation, Statistical Inflation+ Tax Adjusted Total Return Forecast\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\n\nwith a $75,000 total investment, made at the best valuations in five years, there is a very good statistical chance that I will eventually become an Alibaba millionaire\nthere is a decent chance that my children and grandchildren will be Alibaba billionaires\n\nReason 6: One Of The Most Reasonable And Prudent Growth Stocks You Can Buy Today\nI never recommend a company, much less put my own money at risk, without first knowing exactly how prudent a potential investment it is relative to the S&P 500, most people's default alternative.\n\nThe investment decision score is based on valuation and the three core principles of all successful long-term investors.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n(Source:Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)\nBABA is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth stocks you can buy today. It offers\n\nobjectively superior quality to the average S&P 500 company (credit ratings and ROC)\nmuch faster growth (3 to 4X faster)\nmuch superior valuation (mirror image of the S&P 500)\n6X the 5-year risk-adjusted expected returns\n\nThat's assuming you're\n\ncomfortable with the risk profile (see dive section)\nown it within a diversified and prudently risk-managed portfolio\n\nAlibaba Risk Profile: Why BABA Isn't Right For EveryoneFundamental Risk Summary\n\n In our view, the most pressing risks to the Alibaba investment thesis are a sustained slowdown in Chinese consumption patterns, e-commerce competition, increased regulatory scrutiny, and the possibility that ancillary businesses divert management's attention and reduce profitability.China's e-commerce landscape has become increasingly competitive, with Pinduoduo registering faster GMV and user growth than Alibaba with the support of Tencent's traffic and its group-buying traffic generation method, and JD.com positioning itself as a credible rival through its fulfillment capability, quality assurance, and its partnerships with Tencent. These platforms do not yet have Alibaba's scale in China, but they specialize in specific products or services, or markets, which might impede Alibaba's growth.Alibaba is also subject to increased online and mobile payment regulation. Financial regulators in China have continuously scrutinized online and mobile payment services. Alibaba has persistently faced the issue of counterfeit and infringing goods on its marketplaces. Hangzhou government's assigning of representatives to work inside Alibaba also raise concerns of some investors, although there is no evidence of consequence of value destruction for Alibaba.Expansion into peripheral businesses might distract management, reduce profitability without materially improve Alibaba's ecosystem. While we're optimistic about Alibaba's ability to become a preferred partner for international retailers and consumer brands looking to sell in China, the firm does not enjoy the same network effect and brand recognition in other countries, and it may face challenges directly expanding in these markets...Like many other Chinese Internet companies listed in overseas markets, Alibaba operates under a\n variable interest entity, or VIE, structuredesigned to let companies bypass Chinese legal restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors.Alibaba's foreign investors will essentially hold shares of Alibaba's VIE domiciled in the Cayman Islands. We don't expect any legal challenges to VIE structures by the Chinese government in the future. However, if the legitimacy of Alibaba's related VIE is found to violate applicable law or regulation, Chinese regulatory authorities might take action against the VIE, including revoking the business and operating licenses of Alibaba's subsidiaries or the VIE, or discontinuing, restricting, or restructuring Alibaba's operations. Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has the jurisdiction to regulate VIEs, we believe overseas investors would have limited legal rights...Despite\n management's proven execution capabilities,\n we have concerns regarding Alibaba's corporate governance, which is reflected in our Poor equity stewardship rating.In our view,\n Alibaba is led by a capable and ambitious management team. Founder and former executive chairman Jack Ma has been the keeper of the flame since the company's founding in 1999. Under his leadership, Alibaba has become China's leading e-commerce player, accounting for the majority of transaction volume for China's online shopping industry.Over the past decade, Taobao has transformed the shopping behaviors of millions of Chinese consumers. We believe management has also done a commendable job developing and preserving Alibaba's wide economic moat by building several other leading online marketplaces and platforms such a Tmall, Juhuasuan, Alibaba.com, AliExpress, Alipay, AliCloud, and Ele.me. Although the company faces a potentially uneven long-term economic backdrop and new sources of competition in China,\n we remain confident that Alibaba can sustain its wide economic moat over the long term under its existing leadership.Ma's decision to step away from Alibaba's executive chairman role in 2019 and the company's board of directors will not affect our positive long-term bias for two reasons. First,\n we believe recent results demonstrate that Alibaba has a deep management bench,\n including current CEO Daniel Zhang(who was appointed CEO of Alibaba Group in May 2015, will assume the chairman role in 2019, and played a central role in the development of the Singles Day shopping event, building the Tmall platform from a regional to global business-to-consumer platform, and deploying several of Alibaba's \"New Retail\" strategies) and executive vice chairman Joe Tsai. Second, we believe Ma's involvement with the Alibaba Partnership--a group of core company managers--will allow him to stay involved with key strategic decisions...We harbor concerns about Alibaba's partnership structure, which might jeopardize the board's independence.The partnership is led by a committee of five, including Ma, executive vice chairman Joe Tsai, and CEO Daniel Zhang. The Alibaba Partnership has the exclusive right to nominate or appoint up to a simple majority of the members of its board of directors.Any board candidate it nominates is presented to shareholders for voting. If the candidate is not elected by shareholders, the partnership can appoint another candidate without a vote. That candidate will serve as an interim director until the next annual general meeting, where either the same candidate or yet another nominee proposed by Alibaba partners will stand for election.The current board of directors is composed of 11 directors, five of which are Alibaba Partnership nominees. Alibaba Partnership can also nominate or appoint two additional directors to the board, which would increase the number of directors to 13, and the Partnership will get majority control of the board.\n The Partnership essentially controls the board and limits the influence of outside shareholders.\" - Morningstar (emphasis added)\n\nMSCI, Reuters and Morningstar, as well as S&P, Fitch, and Moody's have concerns about BABA's corporate governance, which is factored into each company's respective rating on BABA's credit and material ESG risk (more on that later).\n\nall Chinese companies are speculative\nthus requiring a 5% higher margin of safety to be a potentially good buy (20% in the case of BABA)\ninvestors not comfortable with BABA's complex risk profile should not own it\nno company is right for everyone\n\nAlibaba ESG Risk Analysis: An Important Component Of A Company's Overall Financial Risk Profile (But Especially For Chinese Tech Companies)\n\ncritically important to anyone concerned about corporate governance and potential accounting fraud\n\nIn today's hyperpolarized political climate, some investors consider ESG to be political/personal ethics/opinion-driven nonsense.\nESG as measured by institutions is NOT simply the concern of \"woke\" and \"on-trend\" hippy millennials trying to virtue signal to impress Silicon Valley venture capitalists or social media followers.\n\n Companies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI\n\nAccording to the world's best risk-assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers ESG important and builds it into their safety models and ratings.\n\nBlackRock - #1 asset manager in the world\nMSCI - #1 indexing giant\nMorningstar\nReuters/Refinitiv\nISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) - #1 corporate proxy firm on earth\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)\nAMBest (insurance industry rating agency)\n\nThe reason some investors consider ESG to be political is that some investors consider some industries to be inherently \"evil\" such as tobacco, energy, big tech, pharma, health insurers, fast-food, snack foods, and defense contractors.\n\nsuch opinions are personal and based on individual ethics\nESG scores as calculated by institutions are quantitatively based and focused on only fundamental financial risks to the underlying business\nthey are compared against industry peers and as objective as can be realistically expected\n\nPersonal ethical or political opinions are not what rating agencies or asset managers care about.\nMSCI rates over 2,800 global companies on 37 ESG metrics, using a quantitative and qualitative approach, just as all the rating agencies do, and Ben Graham recommended.\n\n Our global team of 185 experienced research analysts assesses thousands of data points across 37 ESG Key Issues, focusing on the intersection between a company's core business and the industry issues that can create significant risks and opportunities for the company. Companies are rated on an AAA-CCC scale\n relative to the standards and performance of their industry peers...\n\n\n\n The MSCI ESG rating model seeks to answer four key questions about companies:• What are the most significant ESG risks and opportunities facing a company and its industry?• How exposed is the company to those key risks and/or opportunities?• How well is the company managing key risks and opportunities?• What is the overall picture for the company and how does it compare to its global industry peers?\" - MSCI\n\n\n(Source: MSCI)\nThe ESG scores you find from the best risk-assessors in the world are not opinions based on political correctness.They use a quantitative approach to fundamental company risk analysis.One based on decades of historical data pertaining to minimizing the risk of fundamental deterioration, bankruptcy, and stock/bond investors getting wiped out.\n\nESG risk ratings + trends make up about 20% of the overall DK quality score for most companies that have an ESG rating from MSCI, Morningstar/Sustainalytics, and Reuters/Refinitiv\n\n\n\n(Source: MSCI)\n\nbased on the 12 material sustainability factors MSCI's 185 industry experts believe is important to financial risk for midstream companies, BABA scores are in the bottom 37% of its peers (below average)\nthat score is has been improving over the last four years\nthough it dipped one level in the 2020 annual update\n\nHow Morningstar/Sustainalytics Assesses Long-Term ESG Financial Risk\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics cares about material ESG variables that are historically correlated to a company's enterprise value (market cap + net debt)\nFinancial risk NOT political/personal ethical opinions are what Morningstar assesses\n20 fundamental metrics analyzed, compared to industry peers\n100 point risk scale\nlower is better\n\n\n\n\n\n\nEvery controversy surrounding BABA is factored into Morningstar ESG risk rating. That includes the controversies around anti-trust practices for which it's now under investigation by Chinese regulators.\n\nMorningstar considers this to be a medium ESG risk industry\nand management is doing an average job of managing that risk\nMorningstar scores BABA 26.2 \"medium risk\" in the bottom 25% of tech companies and in the top 43% of all 13,645 companies Morningstar rates\nrisk rating increased from 24.6 to 26.2 in the past year due to increasing regulatory concerns\n\nReuters/Refinitiv also provides ESG financial risk ratings.\n\nover 150 industry experts covering over 7,000 global companies\nbased on 400+ fundamental metrics\nand 178 materially important financial ESG risk factors\n\n\n\n\n(Source: Refinitiv)\n\n(Source: Interactive Brokers)\n\nReuters ranks BABA as in the bottom 30% of its peers on actual financial ESG risk\nin the top 40% in terms of environmental issues\nbottom 30% for social\nbottom 20% for corporate governance\nand near the very bottom of its industry on controversies\nfor a combined score that's in the bottom 10% of its peers\nwhich is why BABA's dependability score fell from 75% to 68% and resulted in a downgrade from 11/12 to 10/12 speculative quality (about two months ago)\nand why I'm looking to invest a maximum of $100K into BABA vs. $1 million into far lower risk Amazon\nrisks with BABA are far higher than with AMZN\n\nWhen no less than 10 of the world's most reputable risk assessors say something is important to long-term financial risk for a company you can be sure that Dividend Kings will include it in our 61 metric safety model and 126 point quality score (converted to a 100% scale).\n\nthere is no such thing as a \"risk-free\" company\nfactoring in all material financial risks is how you determine whether a company is appropriate for your needs\nand how we determine the margin of safety required to compensate us for that risk and thus determine potentially good buy prices or better\nno average investor can ever be a true expert on a company\nbut DK knows where to find the most reliable expert data to create a comprehensive safety, dependability, and quality score that includes every major risk factor a company has\n\nNo less than Ben Graham, the father of securities analysis considered qualitative factors critical to making prudent long-term investing decisions.\n\n... a satisfactory statistical exhibition is a necessary though by no means a sufficient condition for a favorable decision by the analyst.\"-Benjamin Graham, Security Analysis (1951 ed.), Page 76\n\nIn other words, Graham considered a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, looking at the past, present, and likely future, to be the optimal strategy for making sound long-term investments.\n\nDividend Kings uses risk ratings from eight of the world's most reputable agencies\nif fundamentals weaken our model will know it and our scores, ratings, and recommendations will change accordingly\n\nBottom Line: Alibaba Is Set To Soar And Too Cheap To Ignore\nI can't tell you what any stock will do over the next few weeks, months or even a year or two.\n\naccording to JPMorgan Asset Management, 92% of 12-month returns are a function of luck\nover 10+ years 90% to 91% of returns are a function of fundamentals\nover the long-term fundamentals are 11X as powerful as luck\n\nAlibaba represented one of the most undervalued hyper-growth tech blue-chips before this interest rate pullback in tech began.\nAlibaba's recent decline has been sharper than many peers, which isn't justified by its recent earnings results, or overall fundamentals.\nThe long-term growth outlook has gotten better, not worse.\nWhile BABA will always be an inherently speculative company, for those comfortable with the risk profile, a 42% margin of safety more than compensate for the risks you're facing.\nIn the coming years, BABA has the potential to deliver Buffett-like returns that are almost 6X the risk-adjusted returns of the S&P 500.\nEventually, the cash pile will grow so large, the company will be forced to start buying back stocks and paying dividends.\nA modest investment in BABA today could fund a comfortable or even lavish retirement purely from future dividends in a few decades.\nPrudent long-term investors know that through a disciplined application of financial science we never have to pray for luck. We make our own luck over time.\nWhen it comes to Alibaba, as close to a perfect hyper-growth blue-chip investment as exists on Wall Street today, the time to make our own luck is now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}