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- WeeckWeeck
  ·2021-06-22
  To the moon ?
  NIO Takes On The World
  NIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.NIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.NIO Inc.stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.NIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the wor
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Now it is going global.NIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.NIO Inc.stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.NIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the wor","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.</li>\n <li>First stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.</li>\n <li>NIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.</p>\n<p>In this article, we will analyze NIO's global expansion plans, as well as an updated analysis of the stock's trading, valuation, financials, and risks. Please also read my recent article<i>NIO Is Winning</i>for a broader analysis of the company's competitive advantages.</p>\n<p><b>The Plan</b></p>\n<p>NIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the world. Now, the company is set to take on the world. First stop: Norway.</p>\n<p>In May of this year, NIOannouncedthat it plans to sell the NIO ES8, the company's flagship seven-seater SUV, in its first overseas store in Oslo starting in September this year. By 2022, the company aims to expand its store network to other Norwegian cities and deliver the ET7.</p>\n<p>Norway is an excellent starting point given its affluent citizens, supportive attitude towards EVs, and relatively high global prestige. For example, in 2020,Norway'sper-capita GDP is over $75,000, well above theUK's$43,000.</p>\n<p>Another important reason for starting in Norway is the lack of domestic competitors. In Germany, you have Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In France, you have Stellantis (STLA). In other words, it should be easier to win in Norway, and winning Norway will give the company credibility and momentum to win the rest of Europe and the rest of the world.</p>\n<p>This is a very smart move indeed.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4ee92152d74d6051bcdf874b7a9b5a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Company</p>\n<p>Unlike SAIC, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and XPeng (XPEV) - which are also exporting to Europe - NIO is taking a different approach. The company plans to localize its entire ecosystem to create a unique premium EV ownership experience that parallels the Chineseecosystem strategy.</p>\n<p>Like in China, NIO will build both digital and physical infrastructure to support the brand. A dedicated mobile app will be available in Norway, supported by a lifestyle brand campaign in collaboration with local artists and a user advisory board. The firstNIO Houseoutside China will officially open in the third quarter in Oslo. In 2022, four NIO Spaces will open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim, and Kristiansand.</p>\n<p>In addition, the company will also open an 18,000 square meter service center, charging stations, and battery swapping stations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa22e0e80d298cc13c2d3dac50d93d12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Company</p>\n<p>All of this will cost a lot of money, but it is important to establish a successful beachhead in Europe, and the company has plenty of cash (see<i>Financial</i>section).</p>\n<p><b>The Opportunity: Europe</b></p>\n<p>It might come as a surprise to readers that EVs already dominate the Norwegian carmarketwith a 54% market share in 2020 and a 66.7% market share in December 2020. Adoption of EVs is driven by the country's aggressive target of ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2025.</p>\n<p>In 2020, 76,804 electric vehicles weresoldin Norway. That is a lot of EVs, but just a small fraction of the 1.4 million electric vehiclessoldin Europe that year.</p>\n<p>Europe offers massive growth opportunities for NIO, and management has repeatedly expressed interest in going after all of Europe. In 2020, the combined EV markets of this economic blocksurpassedChina for the first time. The combination of regulation, incentives, and public acceptance sent purchases of new EVs in Europe last year to 1.4 million from 595,000 the year before. Sales of EVs in China came in at 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million the yearbefore.</p>\n<p>According to JATO Dynamics, plug-in EVs accounted for 12% of all new car sales in the EU last year, and Europe has a global market share of 43% in EVs. China and the EU together account for nearly the entire global market for EVs (mid-80% range).</p>\n<p>In other words, NIO's serviceable addressable market (\"SAM\") doubles once it establishes a successful beachhead in Oslo. Stay tuned for September!</p>\n<p><b>Trading &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Sentiment on the stock has been improving significantly since May 2021. Since the beginning of June, the stock has been trading above its 200-day moving average after spending the previous month below this important technical indicator.</p>\n<p>Although the stock has been on a tear recently, short interest remains stable and low at around 5.2% of shares outstanding. This suggests little skepticism from professional skeptics - an assuring sign.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021.</p>\n<p>After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited2020with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Expanding outside of China comes will take a lot of capital and come with plenty of uncertainty. The company will need to establish credibility in mature automotive markets with consumers accustomed to buying from legacy OEMs.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chipshortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The more I learn about NIO, the more impressed I am by the company'sinnovation, competitive advantages, and ambition. Entering the European market through Norway, backed up by a sound and comprehensive execution plan, strikes me as a brilliant move. The company has billions on the balance sheet to support its global vision and currently trades at a reasonable valuation.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Takes On The World</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Takes On The World\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 17:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.\nFirst stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.\nNIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435772-nio-takes-on-world","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1172678753","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO has been winning in China. Now it is going global.\nFirst stop: Norway; a brilliant strategic move.\nNIO is high-risk, high-reward. Valuation seems reasonable, short interest low, and sentiment has been improving.\n\nNIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)stands out for its strong market position and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. Now, the company has plans to expand outside of China, with a brilliant strategy of first winning Norway.\nIn this article, we will analyze NIO's global expansion plans, as well as an updated analysis of the stock's trading, valuation, financials, and risks. Please also read my recent articleNIO Is Winningfor a broader analysis of the company's competitive advantages.\nThe Plan\nNIO has been winning in China, the single largest and most competitive EV market in the world. Now, the company is set to take on the world. First stop: Norway.\nIn May of this year, NIOannouncedthat it plans to sell the NIO ES8, the company's flagship seven-seater SUV, in its first overseas store in Oslo starting in September this year. By 2022, the company aims to expand its store network to other Norwegian cities and deliver the ET7.\nNorway is an excellent starting point given its affluent citizens, supportive attitude towards EVs, and relatively high global prestige. For example, in 2020,Norway'sper-capita GDP is over $75,000, well above theUK's$43,000.\nAnother important reason for starting in Norway is the lack of domestic competitors. In Germany, you have Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In France, you have Stellantis (STLA). In other words, it should be easier to win in Norway, and winning Norway will give the company credibility and momentum to win the rest of Europe and the rest of the world.\nThis is a very smart move indeed.\n\nSource: Company\nUnlike SAIC, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and XPeng (XPEV) - which are also exporting to Europe - NIO is taking a different approach. The company plans to localize its entire ecosystem to create a unique premium EV ownership experience that parallels the Chineseecosystem strategy.\nLike in China, NIO will build both digital and physical infrastructure to support the brand. A dedicated mobile app will be available in Norway, supported by a lifestyle brand campaign in collaboration with local artists and a user advisory board. The firstNIO Houseoutside China will officially open in the third quarter in Oslo. In 2022, four NIO Spaces will open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim, and Kristiansand.\nIn addition, the company will also open an 18,000 square meter service center, charging stations, and battery swapping stations.\nSource: Company\nAll of this will cost a lot of money, but it is important to establish a successful beachhead in Europe, and the company has plenty of cash (seeFinancialsection).\nThe Opportunity: Europe\nIt might come as a surprise to readers that EVs already dominate the Norwegian carmarketwith a 54% market share in 2020 and a 66.7% market share in December 2020. Adoption of EVs is driven by the country's aggressive target of ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2025.\nIn 2020, 76,804 electric vehicles weresoldin Norway. That is a lot of EVs, but just a small fraction of the 1.4 million electric vehiclessoldin Europe that year.\nEurope offers massive growth opportunities for NIO, and management has repeatedly expressed interest in going after all of Europe. In 2020, the combined EV markets of this economic blocksurpassedChina for the first time. The combination of regulation, incentives, and public acceptance sent purchases of new EVs in Europe last year to 1.4 million from 595,000 the year before. Sales of EVs in China came in at 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million the yearbefore.\nAccording to JATO Dynamics, plug-in EVs accounted for 12% of all new car sales in the EU last year, and Europe has a global market share of 43% in EVs. China and the EU together account for nearly the entire global market for EVs (mid-80% range).\nIn other words, NIO's serviceable addressable market (\"SAM\") doubles once it establishes a successful beachhead in Oslo. Stay tuned for September!\nTrading & Valuation\nSentiment on the stock has been improving significantly since May 2021. Since the beginning of June, the stock has been trading above its 200-day moving average after spending the previous month below this important technical indicator.\nAlthough the stock has been on a tear recently, short interest remains stable and low at around 5.2% of shares outstanding. This suggests little skepticism from professional skeptics - an assuring sign.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021.\nAfter the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nFinancials\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited2020with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nExpanding outside of China comes will take a lot of capital and come with plenty of uncertainty. The company will need to establish credibility in mature automotive markets with consumers accustomed to buying from legacy OEMs.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chipshortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nThe more I learn about NIO, the more impressed I am by the company'sinnovation, competitive advantages, and ambition. Entering the European market through Norway, backed up by a sound and comprehensive execution plan, strikes me as a brilliant move. The company has billions on the balance sheet to support its global vision and currently trades at a reasonable valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}