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安妮1022

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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2022-08-11
  $Unity Software Inc.(U)$Up
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2022-08-09
  $Unity Software Inc.(U)$Up
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2022-08-04
  $Unity Software Inc.(U)$Up
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2022-07-29
  $Unity Software Inc.(U)$up
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2022-07-09
  $Unity Software Inc.(U)$Up up up
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2022-06-21
  $Unity Software Inc.(U)$😊
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2021-09-01
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  Underwater Foam of "Maotai in the Water"
  在此之前，没人能想到一个“搬运工”居然能够登上亚洲首富的位置傲视群雄。经济学家马光远曾调侃，“代表中国财富的不是什么大数据等等的东西，而是普普通通的四瓶水。”这里的“四瓶水”，指的就是茅台、金龙鱼、
  Underwater Foam of "Maotai in the Water"
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2021-08-25
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  Changes in Hong Kong stocks | JD Health (6618. HK) rose by more than 42% in three days, interim revenue increased by 55.4% year-on-year, annual activity
  格隆汇8月25日丨京东健康(6618.HK)涨12.66%，报82.75港元，三日累涨逾42%，总市值2637亿港元。　　京东健康公布2021年中期业绩，收入约人民币136.38亿元，同比增长55.4%;毛利33.07亿元，同比增长49.1%；期间亏损4.54亿元，同比减少91.5%；期间非国际财务报告准则盈利6.67亿元，同比增长79.9%；公司所有者应占亏损约4.55亿元，同比减少约91.51%。
  Changes in Hong Kong stocks | JD Health (6618. HK) rose by more than 42% in three days, interim revenue increased by 55.4% year-on-year, annual activity
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2021-08-22
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  The future of Chinese concept stocks
  中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值。中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。
  The future of Chinese concept stocks
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- 安妮1022安妮1022
  ·2021-08-21
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  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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12:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Underwater Foam of \"Maotai in the Water\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186121597","media":"新熵","summary":"在此之前，没人能想到一个“搬运工”居然能够登上亚洲首富的位置傲视群雄。\n经济学家马光远曾调侃，“代表中国财富的不是什么大数据等等的东西，而是普普通通的四瓶水。”这里的“四瓶水”，指的就是茅台、金龙鱼、","content":"<p>Before that, no one could have thought that a \"porter\" could actually become the richest man in Asia and stand out from the crowd.</p><p>Economist Ma Guangyuan once ridiculed, \"What represents China's wealth is not big data and so on, but ordinary four bottles of water.\" The \"four bottles of water\" here refers to Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300999\">Arowana</a>Haitian soy sauce, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">Nongfu Spring</a>。</p><p>Nongfu Spring, with a unit price of 2 yuan, can be seen everywhere in supermarkets of all sizes, and it is these humble bottled waters that support a wealth myth of \"Maotai in the water\".</p><p>How profitable can bottled water be?</p><p>According to Nongfu Spring's financial report data over the years, the gross profit margin of bottled water can reach 60% in recent years. Even if other business segments are hindered, the overall gross profit margin can exceed 50%. Such a high gross profit margin is rare, and \"happy water\" is deeply loved by young people all over the world.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, the gross profit margin is less than 40%, while the gross profit margin of Master Kong's drinks is only about 30%.</p><p>There is no doubt about Nongfu Spring's ability to attract gold, and it is nicknamed \"nature's money printing machine\" by netizens.</p><p>Since its listing, Nongfu Spring has attracted a lot of attention, and its stock price seems to be on a roller coaster. After the founder was awarded the richest man in Asia, he fell from the altar. The record in the first half of this year has attracted much attention.</p><p>Is \"Maotai in the Water\" still valuable? Is there a valuation risk for the current stock price? Will it be cut in half again in the future? We all hope to find the answers to these questions in the 2021 interim results announcement.</p><p><b>01</b><b>\"Maotai in the Water\" is worthy of its name</b></p><p>On August 26, 2021, Nongfu Spring released its fiscal year interim report. The revenue of 15.175 billion yuan lived up to the title of \"Moutai in the Water\", with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%, slightly exceeding market consensus expectations.</p><p>Judging from the financial report data, the 40% growth rate of net profit in the first half of this year is also very impressive. This surprising report card also brought Zhong Suisui back to the position of China's richest man. However, such a high growth rate is inseparable from the embarrassing posture of the same period last year.</p><p>In the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic, the beverage market was bleak. Instead of rising, the overall revenue shrank by about 6%. If the abnormal performance data in 2020 is skipped and directly compared with the same period in 2019, within two years, Nongfu Spring's revenue only increased by about 20%.</p><p>This year's amazing stems from the tragic comparison with last year, and the financial report data from 2017 to 2019 show that Nongfu Spring's revenue growth rate has been stable at around 17% in the past three years. From this point of view, although this year's Nongfu Spring has been well controlled due to the domestic epidemic situation, the market has gradually picked up, and a good-looking report card has been handed over, but according to the current data, Nongfu Spring may still not recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1357083164446283d471e22ab837db\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of business data, drinking water is still the main revenue force, contributing nearly 60% of revenue by itself. From the 2020 interim financial report data, we can see that even in the bleak market environment in 2020, the drinking water business still rose firmly by 0.7% in the first half of the year, and the overall market recovered this year, and the drinking water business directly rose by 25%..</p><p>The growth rate of other categories of businesses is also very impressive, especially new products such as sparkling water and coffee, with a growth rate of 86%, but unfortunately the volume is too small, accounting for only 5.5% of all businesses, which has little impact on the overall revenue.</p><p>In recent years, Nongfu Spring has continued to make efforts in the beverage sector, constantly launching new products. Old-fashioned series such as Scream, Tea π, and Oriental Leaf have been constantly updated, showing lasting vitality. In the past two years, the emerging field of sparkling water also has the shadow of Nongfu Spring. But as far as financial data is concerned, in a short period of time, drinking water products are still the main theme.</p><p>For an enterprise, revenue is the table and cost is the inside. Good-looking face is very important, and good-looking lining is also very important, and the criterion to measure whether the two are equally good-looking is gross profit margin.</p><p>Nongfu Spring's gross profit margin has never disappointed, and it remains the same this year. According to the data of the interim report, the gross profit in the first half of the year was as high as 9.241 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin increased by 1% from the previous year to 60.9%.</p><p>Regarding the increase in gross profit margin, Nongfu Spring said at the performance exchange meeting that the main reason was that the cost of PET materials was well controlled in the first half of this year.</p><p>As an indispensable packaging, PET materials are of great significance to Nongfu Spring. In the prospectus released last year, Nongfu Spring gave the exact answer. Nearly 30% of the cost falls on PET materials. It is not difficult to understand why PET materials this year If the cost is well controlled, the overall gross profit margin can be increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0421104a92e863bfc42be28ac7c1a6cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In response to the problem of PET materials, Nongfu Spring specifically pointed out that the material price lock-in preparations in the second half of this year are relatively sufficient. The cost in the second half of this year is expected to be similar to that in the first half of the year, but the situation next year is not optimistic, and the gross profit margin has been reduced to the level of 2019. Psychological preparation.</p><p>If this worry becomes a reality, then next year's profit growth rate may be affected to some extent.</p><p>In addition to the possible impact of PET material prices, the increase in marketing costs cannot be ignored. At the performance exchange meeting, Nongfu Spring said that due to the diversity of information acquisition channels, the company's promotion costs have increased a lot.</p><p>Promotion has an inseparable relationship with performance. If marketing costs are reduced, it is inevitable that performance will also be at risk of decline. What's more, Nongfu Spring's plan to increase SKUs has never stopped. When new products are launched and old series are launched, marketing costs will inevitably not be saved.</p><p>In the second half of this year, Henan, as a major sales province, suffered from rain disasters and epidemics successively. At the same time, Zhejiang and other places were also affected by typhoons. Although the performance pressure will increase, the still strong drinking water business may continue to tell \"Nongfu Spring is a bit sweet\" story.</p><p><b>02</b><b>The stock price cut in half, the bubble is still there</b></p><p>In this mid-year report card, Nongfu Spring got a good result, but in sharp contrast to this, the stock price was cut in half in the first half of the year.</p><p>Since its listing in September 2020, Nongfu Spring has relied on 2 yuan a bottle of natural water, and its market value once exceeded 700 billion Hong Kong dollars. In less than half a year, its stock price has soared, and its P/E once reached 138 times.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, Nongfu Spring's stock price reached its highest point, and then plummeted all the way. The falling stock price once caused panic among investors, but such a decline was not abrupt for Nongfu Spring. Enthusiastic investors need to calm down, and the rising stock price also needs to be pulled back.</p><p>At present, the market value of Nongfu Spring has evaporated by hundreds of billions, and Zhong Suisui has also stepped down from the altar of Asia's richest man. The overall stock price has fallen by nearly 40%, but the current P/E of Nongfu Spring is still as high as 71 times.</p><p>On the other hand, among the listed companies in the food and beverage sector, Master Kong P/E is only 17 times, focusing on the Lulu series<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000848\">Chengde Lulu</a>P/E is only 27 times, even the ones that have ignited market sentiment again and again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>, P/E is only about 40 times.</p><p>There is naturally a bubble behind the excessively high P/E. Nongfu Spring's stock price seems to be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603099\">Changbai Mountain</a>The fragile ice layer on the lake, in terms of financial data, Nongfu Spring's return ability does not catch up with investors' high expectations. Once expectations collapse, the stock price will be halved again.</p><p>Investors' high expectations come from Nongfu Spring's absolute advantage in the market, but when a company has made an absolute advantage in a market, the ceiling problem cannot be avoided.</p><p>From the financial report data, we can see that the growth rate of the drinking water business is significantly slower than other businesses. If we do not consider the impact of the market environment in 2020, the growth rate of this business in two years since 2019. The average annual growth rate only reaches 12%. At the performance exchange meeting, Nongfu Spring also admitted that the current growth rate has not yet returned to normal levels.</p><p>Before the drinking water business saw the ceiling, Nongfu Spring had already begun to deploy in other businesses, such as launching beverages such as Scream, Vitamin Water, and Farmer's Orchard, and entering business fields such as tea beverages, functional beverages, and fruit juice beverages. According to the data in the prospectus, In 2019, the market share of these businesses reached the third position.</p><p>In the interim financial report, Nongfu Spring also stated that \"it will continue to promote the development pattern of drinking water and beverage dual engines.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ae118491013a0ac57f72b00f5dfb9c\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"132\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, in terms of business revenue data, packaged drinking water products contributed nearly 60% of revenue, and tea drinks, functional drinks, fruit juice drinks and other products obviously did not get out of the momentum of the \"second engine\".</p><p>In the field of beverages, Nongfu Spring has always been the \"younger generation\". According to data from the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, brands such as Master Kong and Uni-President have absolute advantages in the tea beverage market. Nongfu Spring's market share has dropped to sixth. In the field of functional beverages, Red Bull It is the absolute overlord, occupying more than 50% of the market share, while its rival is Dongpeng Special Drink. Nongfu Spring's products do not have much story.</p><p>Although the growth rate of the beverage business is very high, it is relatively small, and its growth in several years has not gone out of its own advantages. The beautiful vision of relying on twin engines to provide power for filling the stock price bubble may still need time to catalyze. In recent years, Nongfu Spring is probably the home of water.</p><p><b>03Is the future of Nongfu Spring or water?</b></p><p>Water is the source of life, and the same is true for Nongfu Spring.</p><p>The ceiling of the drinking water market is pressed over the head, and Nongfu Spring intends to rely on water sources again to break the deadlock.</p><p>When Nongfu Spring was just born, facing the pure water market that was already the Red Sea, Zhong Suisui chose to turn around and use pure water and natural water as the topic of debate, triggering a nationwide debate. Nongfu Spring became famous in the first battle, \"We don't produce water, we are just the porters of nature.\" To this day, this advertising slogan is still well known to women and children.</p><p>From the perspective of types of drinking water, it is generally divided into four types: natural water, natural mineral water, purified water and mineral water. Among them, purified water refers to artificially treated tap water, while mineral water is artificially added with certain mineral components on the basis of purified water. Since the water source is tap water, the cost price is relatively cheap. At present, these two types of low-priced water are the most common.</p><p>Natural water comes from nature, such as underground spring water, well water, etc. Nongfu Spring is the most typical representative. Natural mineral water has higher requirements for water sources, is more difficult to take water, and has higher natural costs. At present, the high-end drinking water on the market basically belongs to this category, such as Baisui Mountain and Evian.</p><p>In the field of natural water, Nongfu Spring has an absolute advantage, but in the natural mineral water track, Baisuishan, a subsidiary of Jingtian Group, is the leader. According to public information, the market share of Baisuishan is close to 40%, occupying the first position in the market for ten consecutive years.</p><p>In April this year, Nongfu Spring launched the first natural mineral water product Changbaixue with a unit price of 3 yuan, which is a benchmark against Baisui Mountain and hopes to expand its product matrix in the drinking water business. However, at present, 2 yuan water is the mainstream. In the minds of consumers, the quality of water quality may not be as important as the price.</p><p>At the same time, unlike ordinary natural water, Changbai Snow's water source is currently only Changbai Mountain. If it wants to cover the whole country, the transportation cost will inevitably rise. Although Nongfu Spring said that the current pricing of 3 yuan can cover the cost, considering the transportation cost, its profitability is inevitably worrying.</p><p>In addition to new products, Nongfu Spring also said at the performance exchange meeting that the performance of large-packaged water this year is very good. \"The growth rate is still slightly higher than that of small-packaged water, and it has not changed since before the IPO\", and believes that the competition of large-packaged water will become more and more fierce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e011521fd4ddc42bbf3e97c3ec9824a6\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a national brand, Nongfu Spring's brand appeal is beyond doubt. Its absolute leading position in the small bottled drinking water market can still exert its waste heat in the large packaged water market and affect consumers' choices. However, when brand influence is excluded, Nongfu Spring still has no outstanding features in distribution services and production technology.</p><p>The confidence in the large-packaged water business still comes from the water sources distributed across the country, the national character of the brand, and a dealer network comparable to capillaries. With a solid \"storytelling\" foundation, Nongfu Spring tells consumers a full-scene story, rubbing the concept of natural water into life, in an attempt to cultivate consumers' dependence on natural water.</p><p>At present, large-packaged water is gradually invading life. After the epidemic and rain disaster, the enthusiasm for reserving will also bring large-packaged water to a small climax. However, it will take time to tell us whether large-packaged water can compete with small-bottle water in the future.</p><p>In the next few years, perhaps Nongfu Spring still needs to rely on the old bank to \"move water\" to ensure that the stock price bubble will not be punctured, but how to make the old bank develop into a new driving force will become a new problem for Nongfu Spring.</p>","source":"lsy1602476715181","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Underwater Foam of \"Maotai in the Water\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnderwater Foam of \"Maotai in the Water\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新熵</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-01 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Before that, no one could have thought that a \"porter\" could actually become the richest man in Asia and stand out from the crowd.</p><p>Economist Ma Guangyuan once ridiculed, \"What represents China's wealth is not big data and so on, but ordinary four bottles of water.\" The \"four bottles of water\" here refers to Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300999\">Arowana</a>Haitian soy sauce, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">Nongfu Spring</a>。</p><p>Nongfu Spring, with a unit price of 2 yuan, can be seen everywhere in supermarkets of all sizes, and it is these humble bottled waters that support a wealth myth of \"Maotai in the water\".</p><p>How profitable can bottled water be?</p><p>According to Nongfu Spring's financial report data over the years, the gross profit margin of bottled water can reach 60% in recent years. Even if other business segments are hindered, the overall gross profit margin can exceed 50%. Such a high gross profit margin is rare, and \"happy water\" is deeply loved by young people all over the world.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, the gross profit margin is less than 40%, while the gross profit margin of Master Kong's drinks is only about 30%.</p><p>There is no doubt about Nongfu Spring's ability to attract gold, and it is nicknamed \"nature's money printing machine\" by netizens.</p><p>Since its listing, Nongfu Spring has attracted a lot of attention, and its stock price seems to be on a roller coaster. After the founder was awarded the richest man in Asia, he fell from the altar. The record in the first half of this year has attracted much attention.</p><p>Is \"Maotai in the Water\" still valuable? Is there a valuation risk for the current stock price? Will it be cut in half again in the future? We all hope to find the answers to these questions in the 2021 interim results announcement.</p><p><b>01</b><b>\"Maotai in the Water\" is worthy of its name</b></p><p>On August 26, 2021, Nongfu Spring released its fiscal year interim report. The revenue of 15.175 billion yuan lived up to the title of \"Moutai in the Water\", with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%, slightly exceeding market consensus expectations.</p><p>Judging from the financial report data, the 40% growth rate of net profit in the first half of this year is also very impressive. This surprising report card also brought Zhong Suisui back to the position of China's richest man. However, such a high growth rate is inseparable from the embarrassing posture of the same period last year.</p><p>In the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic, the beverage market was bleak. Instead of rising, the overall revenue shrank by about 6%. If the abnormal performance data in 2020 is skipped and directly compared with the same period in 2019, within two years, Nongfu Spring's revenue only increased by about 20%.</p><p>This year's amazing stems from the tragic comparison with last year, and the financial report data from 2017 to 2019 show that Nongfu Spring's revenue growth rate has been stable at around 17% in the past three years. From this point of view, although this year's Nongfu Spring has been well controlled due to the domestic epidemic situation, the market has gradually picked up, and a good-looking report card has been handed over, but according to the current data, Nongfu Spring may still not recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1357083164446283d471e22ab837db\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of business data, drinking water is still the main revenue force, contributing nearly 60% of revenue by itself. From the 2020 interim financial report data, we can see that even in the bleak market environment in 2020, the drinking water business still rose firmly by 0.7% in the first half of the year, and the overall market recovered this year, and the drinking water business directly rose by 25%..</p><p>The growth rate of other categories of businesses is also very impressive, especially new products such as sparkling water and coffee, with a growth rate of 86%, but unfortunately the volume is too small, accounting for only 5.5% of all businesses, which has little impact on the overall revenue.</p><p>In recent years, Nongfu Spring has continued to make efforts in the beverage sector, constantly launching new products. Old-fashioned series such as Scream, Tea π, and Oriental Leaf have been constantly updated, showing lasting vitality. In the past two years, the emerging field of sparkling water also has the shadow of Nongfu Spring. But as far as financial data is concerned, in a short period of time, drinking water products are still the main theme.</p><p>For an enterprise, revenue is the table and cost is the inside. Good-looking face is very important, and good-looking lining is also very important, and the criterion to measure whether the two are equally good-looking is gross profit margin.</p><p>Nongfu Spring's gross profit margin has never disappointed, and it remains the same this year. According to the data of the interim report, the gross profit in the first half of the year was as high as 9.241 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin increased by 1% from the previous year to 60.9%.</p><p>Regarding the increase in gross profit margin, Nongfu Spring said at the performance exchange meeting that the main reason was that the cost of PET materials was well controlled in the first half of this year.</p><p>As an indispensable packaging, PET materials are of great significance to Nongfu Spring. In the prospectus released last year, Nongfu Spring gave the exact answer. Nearly 30% of the cost falls on PET materials. It is not difficult to understand why PET materials this year If the cost is well controlled, the overall gross profit margin can be increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0421104a92e863bfc42be28ac7c1a6cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In response to the problem of PET materials, Nongfu Spring specifically pointed out that the material price lock-in preparations in the second half of this year are relatively sufficient. The cost in the second half of this year is expected to be similar to that in the first half of the year, but the situation next year is not optimistic, and the gross profit margin has been reduced to the level of 2019. Psychological preparation.</p><p>If this worry becomes a reality, then next year's profit growth rate may be affected to some extent.</p><p>In addition to the possible impact of PET material prices, the increase in marketing costs cannot be ignored. At the performance exchange meeting, Nongfu Spring said that due to the diversity of information acquisition channels, the company's promotion costs have increased a lot.</p><p>Promotion has an inseparable relationship with performance. If marketing costs are reduced, it is inevitable that performance will also be at risk of decline. What's more, Nongfu Spring's plan to increase SKUs has never stopped. When new products are launched and old series are launched, marketing costs will inevitably not be saved.</p><p>In the second half of this year, Henan, as a major sales province, suffered from rain disasters and epidemics successively. At the same time, Zhejiang and other places were also affected by typhoons. Although the performance pressure will increase, the still strong drinking water business may continue to tell \"Nongfu Spring is a bit sweet\" story.</p><p><b>02</b><b>The stock price cut in half, the bubble is still there</b></p><p>In this mid-year report card, Nongfu Spring got a good result, but in sharp contrast to this, the stock price was cut in half in the first half of the year.</p><p>Since its listing in September 2020, Nongfu Spring has relied on 2 yuan a bottle of natural water, and its market value once exceeded 700 billion Hong Kong dollars. In less than half a year, its stock price has soared, and its P/E once reached 138 times.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, Nongfu Spring's stock price reached its highest point, and then plummeted all the way. The falling stock price once caused panic among investors, but such a decline was not abrupt for Nongfu Spring. Enthusiastic investors need to calm down, and the rising stock price also needs to be pulled back.</p><p>At present, the market value of Nongfu Spring has evaporated by hundreds of billions, and Zhong Suisui has also stepped down from the altar of Asia's richest man. The overall stock price has fallen by nearly 40%, but the current P/E of Nongfu Spring is still as high as 71 times.</p><p>On the other hand, among the listed companies in the food and beverage sector, Master Kong P/E is only 17 times, focusing on the Lulu series<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000848\">Chengde Lulu</a>P/E is only 27 times, even the ones that have ignited market sentiment again and again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>, P/E is only about 40 times.</p><p>There is naturally a bubble behind the excessively high P/E. Nongfu Spring's stock price seems to be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603099\">Changbai Mountain</a>The fragile ice layer on the lake, in terms of financial data, Nongfu Spring's return ability does not catch up with investors' high expectations. Once expectations collapse, the stock price will be halved again.</p><p>Investors' high expectations come from Nongfu Spring's absolute advantage in the market, but when a company has made an absolute advantage in a market, the ceiling problem cannot be avoided.</p><p>From the financial report data, we can see that the growth rate of the drinking water business is significantly slower than other businesses. If we do not consider the impact of the market environment in 2020, the growth rate of this business in two years since 2019. The average annual growth rate only reaches 12%. At the performance exchange meeting, Nongfu Spring also admitted that the current growth rate has not yet returned to normal levels.</p><p>Before the drinking water business saw the ceiling, Nongfu Spring had already begun to deploy in other businesses, such as launching beverages such as Scream, Vitamin Water, and Farmer's Orchard, and entering business fields such as tea beverages, functional beverages, and fruit juice beverages. According to the data in the prospectus, In 2019, the market share of these businesses reached the third position.</p><p>In the interim financial report, Nongfu Spring also stated that \"it will continue to promote the development pattern of drinking water and beverage dual engines.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ae118491013a0ac57f72b00f5dfb9c\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"132\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, in terms of business revenue data, packaged drinking water products contributed nearly 60% of revenue, and tea drinks, functional drinks, fruit juice drinks and other products obviously did not get out of the momentum of the \"second engine\".</p><p>In the field of beverages, Nongfu Spring has always been the \"younger generation\". According to data from the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, brands such as Master Kong and Uni-President have absolute advantages in the tea beverage market. Nongfu Spring's market share has dropped to sixth. In the field of functional beverages, Red Bull It is the absolute overlord, occupying more than 50% of the market share, while its rival is Dongpeng Special Drink. Nongfu Spring's products do not have much story.</p><p>Although the growth rate of the beverage business is very high, it is relatively small, and its growth in several years has not gone out of its own advantages. The beautiful vision of relying on twin engines to provide power for filling the stock price bubble may still need time to catalyze. In recent years, Nongfu Spring is probably the home of water.</p><p><b>03Is the future of Nongfu Spring or water?</b></p><p>Water is the source of life, and the same is true for Nongfu Spring.</p><p>The ceiling of the drinking water market is pressed over the head, and Nongfu Spring intends to rely on water sources again to break the deadlock.</p><p>When Nongfu Spring was just born, facing the pure water market that was already the Red Sea, Zhong Suisui chose to turn around and use pure water and natural water as the topic of debate, triggering a nationwide debate. Nongfu Spring became famous in the first battle, \"We don't produce water, we are just the porters of nature.\" To this day, this advertising slogan is still well known to women and children.</p><p>From the perspective of types of drinking water, it is generally divided into four types: natural water, natural mineral water, purified water and mineral water. Among them, purified water refers to artificially treated tap water, while mineral water is artificially added with certain mineral components on the basis of purified water. Since the water source is tap water, the cost price is relatively cheap. At present, these two types of low-priced water are the most common.</p><p>Natural water comes from nature, such as underground spring water, well water, etc. Nongfu Spring is the most typical representative. Natural mineral water has higher requirements for water sources, is more difficult to take water, and has higher natural costs. At present, the high-end drinking water on the market basically belongs to this category, such as Baisui Mountain and Evian.</p><p>In the field of natural water, Nongfu Spring has an absolute advantage, but in the natural mineral water track, Baisuishan, a subsidiary of Jingtian Group, is the leader. According to public information, the market share of Baisuishan is close to 40%, occupying the first position in the market for ten consecutive years.</p><p>In April this year, Nongfu Spring launched the first natural mineral water product Changbaixue with a unit price of 3 yuan, which is a benchmark against Baisui Mountain and hopes to expand its product matrix in the drinking water business. However, at present, 2 yuan water is the mainstream. In the minds of consumers, the quality of water quality may not be as important as the price.</p><p>At the same time, unlike ordinary natural water, Changbai Snow's water source is currently only Changbai Mountain. If it wants to cover the whole country, the transportation cost will inevitably rise. Although Nongfu Spring said that the current pricing of 3 yuan can cover the cost, considering the transportation cost, its profitability is inevitably worrying.</p><p>In addition to new products, Nongfu Spring also said at the performance exchange meeting that the performance of large-packaged water this year is very good. \"The growth rate is still slightly higher than that of small-packaged water, and it has not changed since before the IPO\", and believes that the competition of large-packaged water will become more and more fierce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e011521fd4ddc42bbf3e97c3ec9824a6\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a national brand, Nongfu Spring's brand appeal is beyond doubt. Its absolute leading position in the small bottled drinking water market can still exert its waste heat in the large packaged water market and affect consumers' choices. However, when brand influence is excluded, Nongfu Spring still has no outstanding features in distribution services and production technology.</p><p>The confidence in the large-packaged water business still comes from the water sources distributed across the country, the national character of the brand, and a dealer network comparable to capillaries. With a solid \"storytelling\" foundation, Nongfu Spring tells consumers a full-scene story, rubbing the concept of natural water into life, in an attempt to cultivate consumers' dependence on natural water.</p><p>At present, large-packaged water is gradually invading life. After the epidemic and rain disaster, the enthusiasm for reserving will also bring large-packaged water to a small climax. However, it will take time to tell us whether large-packaged water can compete with small-bottle water in the future.</p><p>In the next few years, perhaps Nongfu Spring still needs to rely on the old bank to \"move water\" to ensure that the stock price bubble will not be punctured, but how to make the old bank develop into a new driving force will become a new problem for Nongfu Spring.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3y_QHBcqCdxCMeQxdqyYaQ\">新熵</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c73365999f228bdf66df7f52d79a4b4","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3y_QHBcqCdxCMeQxdqyYaQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186121597","content_text":"在此之前，没人能想到一个“搬运工”居然能够登上亚洲首富的位置傲视群雄。\n经济学家马光远曾调侃，“代表中国财富的不是什么大数据等等的东西，而是普普通通的四瓶水。”这里的“四瓶水”，指的就是茅台、金龙鱼、海天酱油，以及农夫山泉。\n单价2元的农夫山泉在大大小小的超市随处可见，而正是这些不起眼的瓶装水，撑起来一个“水中茅台”的财富神话。\n瓶装水的利润能有多高？\n据农夫山泉的历年财报数据显示，近几年瓶装水的毛利率可以达到60%，哪怕加上其他业务板块的拖后腿，整体毛利率也能够超过50%。这样的高毛利率并不多见，深受全球年轻人喜爱的“快乐水”可口可乐，毛利率不到40%，而康师傅旗下饮品的毛利率仅有30%上下。\n农夫山泉的吸金能力毋庸置疑，被网友们戏称为“大自然的印钞机”。\n自上市开始，农夫山泉就吸引到大批目光，股价彷佛坐上了过山车，创始人被捧上亚洲首富之后，又跌落神坛，今年上半年战绩如何，更是备受关注。\n“水中茅台”还值钱吗？目前股价有估值风险吗？未来还会再次腰斩吗？这些问题的答案我们都希望能够在2021年中期业绩公告中找到。\n01“水中茅台”名副其实\n2021年8月26日，农夫山泉发布财年中报，151.75亿的营收不负“水中茅台”的称号，同比增速超过30%，略微超出市场一致预期。\n就财报数据来看，今年上半年净利润40%的增长速度也十分亮眼，这份令人惊喜的成绩单也把钟睒睒重新捧回中国首富的位置。然而，这样的高增速离不开去年同时期狼狈姿态的衬托。\n2020年上半年，受疫情影响，饮料市场一片惨淡，整体营收不仅没有上升，反而缩减6%左右，如果跳过2020年不正常的业绩数据，直接与2019年同期相比，两年的时间内，农夫山泉的营收仅上涨20%左右。\n今年的惊艳源自与去年的惨烈对比，而2017年至2019年财报数据显示，三年间农夫山泉的营收增速稳定在17%左右。以此来看，今年的农夫山泉虽然因国内疫情受到良好控制，市场逐步回暖，交出一份好看的成绩单，但就目前数据来看，农夫山泉恐怕仍旧没有恢复元气。\n\n从业务数据来看，饮用水依旧是营收主力，凭借一己之力贡献了近60%的收入。从2020年中期财报数据中我们可以看到，哪怕在2020年的惨淡市场环境中，上半年饮用水业务仍旧坚挺地上涨0.7%，而今年的市场整体回暖，饮用水业务更是直接上涨了25%。\n其他品类业务的增速也非常亮眼，尤其是气泡水、咖啡等新产品，增速高达86%，但无奈体量过小，在所有业务中占比不过5.5%，对整体营收影响甚微。\n近几年农夫山泉在饮料板块持续发力，不断推出新品，尖叫、茶π、东方树叶等老牌系列均不断上新，展现出持久的生命力，近两年新兴的气泡水领域，也有农夫山泉的影子。但就财务数据来看，短时间内，饮用水产品依旧是主旋律。\n对于一家企业来说，营收是表，成本是里。面子好看很重要，里子好看也很重要，而衡量两者是否同样好看的标准，就是毛利率。\n农夫山泉的毛利率从来都不令人失望，今年依旧如此。据中报数据显示，上半年毛利高达92.41亿元，毛利率较上年增长1%，达到60.9%。\n对于毛利率上涨，农夫山泉方在业绩交流会上表示，主要原因是今年上半年PET材料成本控制得好。\n作为必不可少的包装，PET材料对农夫山泉意义非凡，在去年发布的招股书中，农夫山泉给出了确切答案，近三成的成本都落在PET材料，这就不难理解，为何今年PET材料成本控制得好，就能够提高整体的毛利率。\n\n针对PET材料的问题，农夫山泉方特别提出，今年下半年的材料价格锁定准备较为充分，预计下半年的成本与上半年类似，但明年的情况不容乐观，已经做好毛利率下降至2019年水平的心理准备。\n如果这项担忧成了现实，那么明年的利润增速恐怕会受到一定影响。\n除了PET材料价格可能带来的影响，营销成本的提高也不容忽视，在业绩交流会上，农夫山泉方表示，由于信息获取渠道的多样性，公司的推广成本提升很多。\n推广跟业绩有不可分割的关系，如果缩减营销成本，不可避免的，业绩也将会有下降风险，更何况农夫山泉增加SKU的计划从未停止，新品上市、旧系列上新，营销成本必然不能节约。\n今年下半年，河南作为销售大省，先后遭遇雨灾和疫情，同时浙江等地也遭受台风影响，业绩压力固然会增大，但依旧坚挺的饮用水业务或许能够将继续讲着“农夫山泉有点甜”的故事。\n02股价腰斩，泡沫还在\n这份年中成绩单，农夫山泉拿到了一个不错的成绩，但与此形成鲜明对比的是，在上半年腰斩的股价。\n自2020年9月上市，农夫山泉靠着2元一瓶的天然水，市值一度超过7000亿港元，随后不到半年的时间，股价一路飙升，市盈率一度高达138倍。\n今年年初，农夫山泉的股价达到最高点，随后一路暴跌，跌跌不休的股价一度引发投资者的恐慌，但这样的跌幅，对于农夫山泉来说并不突兀，热情的投资者需要冷静，高涨的股价也需要回调。\n目前，农夫山泉的市值已经蒸发数千亿，钟睒睒也走下亚洲首富的神坛，股价整体跌幅近40%，但目前农夫山泉的市盈率仍旧高达71倍。\n反观同为食品饮料板块的一众上市公司，康师傅市盈率仅有17倍，主打露露系列的承德露露市盈率不过27倍，就连一次次引爆市场情绪的贵州茅台，市盈率也不过才40倍左右。\n过高的市盈率背后自然有泡沫存在，农夫山泉的股价像是长白山湖面上脆弱的冰层，就财务数据来看，农夫山泉的回报能力确实追不上投资者的高预期，一旦预期崩塌，股价将会再一次迎来腰斩。\n投资者的高预期源自农夫山泉在市场上的绝对优势，但当企业在一个市场做出了绝对优势，天花板的问题就无法回避。\n从财报数据中我们能够看到，饮用水业务增速相较于其它业务明显较慢，如果不考虑2020年市场环境带来的影响，自2019年至今，两年的时间中这项业务的增速平均每年仅达到12%，在业绩交流会上，农夫山泉也承认目前的增速仍旧没有恢复到正常水平。\n在饮用水业务看见天花板之前，农夫山泉就已经开始在其它业务上布局，如推出尖叫、维他命水、农夫果园等饮料，入局茶饮料、功能饮料、果汁饮料等业务领域，就招股书中数据显示，2019年时，这些业务的市场占有率均达到第三的位置。\n在中期财报中，农夫山泉也表示“将持续推动饮用水和饮料双引擎发展的格局”。\n\n但就业务营收数据来看，包装饮用水产品贡献近六成营收，茶饮料、功能饮料、果汁饮料以及其它产品明显没有走出“第二个引擎”的气势。\n在饮料领域，农夫山泉一直是“后辈”，据前瞻产业研究院数据显示，在茶饮料市场康师傅、统一等品牌占据绝对优势，农夫山泉市场占有率已降至第六，在功能饮料领域，红牛则是绝对的霸主，占据超50%的市场份额，而其对手则是东鹏特饮，农夫山泉旗下的产品并没有太多的故事。\n饮料业务虽然增速很高，无奈体量较小，几年的成长依旧没有走出自己的优势。靠双引擎为填充股价泡沫提供动力的美好愿景可能还需要时间的催化剂，近几年的农夫山泉大概还是水的主场。\n03农夫山泉的未来还是水？\n水是生命之源，对农夫山泉来说，也是如此。\n饮用水市场的天花板压在头顶，农夫山泉意欲再次靠水源打破僵局。\n在农夫山泉刚刚诞生时，面对已经是红海的纯净水市场，钟睒睒选择转身，以纯净水和天然水为辩题，引发一场全民性的辩论会，农夫山泉一战成名，“我们不生产水，我们只是大自然的搬运工”，时至今日，这句广告词仍旧妇孺皆知。\n从饮用水种类来看，普遍分为天然水、天然矿泉水、纯净水、矿物质水四种，其中纯净水指人工处理过的自来水，矿物质水则是在纯净水的基础上人工添加一定的矿物质成分，由于水源均是自来水，成本价较为便宜，目前低价水中最常见的也是这两种类型。\n而天然水则源自大自然，如地下泉水、井水等，农夫山泉就是最典型的代表。天然矿泉水对水源地要求更高，取水难度也更大，自然成本也更高，目前市面上的高端饮用水基本都属于此类，例如百岁山、依云等。\n在天然水领域中，农夫山泉拥有绝对优势，但是在天然矿泉水赛道，景田集团旗下的百岁山才是老大。据公开消息显示，百岁山市场占有率接近40%，连续十年占据市场第一的位置。\n今年4月，农夫山泉推出首款单价3元的天然矿泉水产品长白雪，对标百岁山，希望扩大自己在饮用水业务的产品矩阵，但目前2元水才是主流，在低价水面向的消费者心中，水质好坏可能并没有价格高低重要。\n同时，与普通天然水不同，长白雪的水源地目前仅有长白山一处，若想覆盖全国，运输成本不可避免会有所上升，虽然农夫山泉方表示，目前定价3元能够覆盖成本，但考虑到运输成本，其盈利能力不免令人担忧。\n除了新品，在业绩交流会上农夫山泉方也表示，今年大包装水成绩非常好，“增速仍然略高于小包装水，从IPO之前到现在都没有改变”，并认为接下来大包装水的竞争会越来越激烈。\n\n作为国民品牌，农夫山泉的品牌号召力毋庸置疑，在小瓶装饮用水市场的绝对领先地位，在大包装水市场依旧能够发挥余热，影响消费者的选择，但当排除品牌影响力，农夫山泉在配送服务、生产工艺等方面依旧没有突出的特点。\n在大包装水业务的底气依旧源自分布在全国的水源地、品牌的国民性、堪比毛细血管的经销商网络，配合扎实的“讲故事”功底，农夫山泉给消费者讲出一个全场景的故事，把天然水的概念揉进生活，企图培养消费者对天然水的依赖。\n目前大包装水正在逐渐入侵生活，疫情和雨灾过后，储备热情也会把大包装水碰上一个小高潮，但未来大包装水是否能够与小瓶水比肩，还需要时间告诉我们答案。\n未来几年内，或许农夫山泉还需要靠老本行“搬水”，来保障股价泡沫不会被刺破，但如何让老本行发展成新动力，将会成为农夫山泉新的问题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837134026,"gmtCreate":1629863062065,"gmtModify":1676530155686,"author":{"id":"3569319906313275","authorId":"3569319906313275","name":"安妮1022","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaea1956e8190b9ea1701017815730b6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569319906313275","idStr":"3569319906313275"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837134026","repostId":"2162332140","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2162332140","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629856211,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162332140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-25 09:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Changes in Hong Kong stocks | JD Health (6618. HK) rose by more than 42% in three days, interim revenue increased by 55.4% year-on-year, annual activity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162332140","media":"金融界网站","summary":"格隆汇8月25日丨京东健康(6618.HK)涨12.66%，报82.75港元，三日累涨逾42%，总市值2637亿港元。　　京东健康公布2021年中期业绩，收入约人民币136.38亿元，同比增长55.4%;毛利33.07亿元，同比增长49.1%；期间亏损4.54亿元，同比减少91.5%；期间非国际财务报告准则盈利6.67亿元，同比增长79.9%；公司所有者应占亏损约4.55亿元，同比减少约91.51%。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Gelonghui August 25th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>(6618. HK) rose 12.66% to HK $82.75, a cumulative increase of more than 42% in three days, with a total market value of HK $263.7 billion. JD Health announced its 2021 interim results, with revenue of approximately RMB 13.638 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55.4%; Gross profit was 3.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.1%; The loss during the period was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.5%; During the period, non-IFRS profit was 667 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.9%; The loss attributable to the company's owners was approximately 455 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 91.51%.</p><p><div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Changes in Hong Kong stocks | JD Health (6618. HK) rose by more than 42% in three days, interim revenue increased by 55.4% year-on-year, annual activity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChanges in Hong Kong stocks | JD Health (6618. HK) rose by more than 42% in three days, interim revenue increased by 55.4% year-on-year, annual activity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界网站</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Gelonghui August 25th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>(6618. HK) rose 12.66% to HK $82.75, a cumulative increase of more than 42% in three days, with a total market value of HK $263.7 billion. JD Health announced its 2021 interim results, with revenue of approximately RMB 13.638 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55.4%; Gross profit was 3.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.1%; The loss during the period was 454 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.5%; During the period, non-IFRS profit was 667 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.9%; The loss attributable to the company's owners was approximately 455 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 91.51%.</p><p><div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/08/25095033314604.shtml\">金融界网站</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b904424fda58da24219d03c64923c79e","relate_stocks":{"06618":"京东健康"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/08/25095033314604.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162332140","content_text":"格隆汇8月25日丨京东健康(6618.HK)涨12.66%，报82.75港元，三日累涨逾42%，总市值2637亿港元。　　京东健康公布2021年中期业绩，收入约人民币136.38亿元，同比增长55.4%;毛利33.07亿元，同比增长49.1%；期间亏损4.54亿元，同比减少91.5%；期间非国际财务报告准则盈利6.67亿元，同比增长79.9%；公司所有者应占亏损约4.55亿元，同比减少约91.51%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06618":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832614488,"gmtCreate":1629619510444,"gmtModify":1676530081055,"author":{"id":"3569319906313275","authorId":"3569319906313275","name":"安妮1022","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaea1956e8190b9ea1701017815730b6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569319906313275","idStr":"3569319906313275"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832614488","repostId":"1182861188","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182861188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629595474,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182861188?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-22 09:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The future of Chinese concept stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182861188","media":"全球宏观投机","summary":"中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值。中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。","content":"<p><b>What is a global macro perspective</b></p><p>As a distinctive investment and trading category, global macro focuses on seeking medium-term large-scale asset price movement opportunities from the perspective of global and national economic cycles, financial conditions and geopolitics. This price change direction can be upward or downward. Global macro ideas are used for asset allocation, the most typical of which is the Yale Endowment Fund in the Swenson era; For more flexible and changeable transactions, the most typical one is the quantum fund in the era when druckenmiller and Soros jointly managed.</p><p>After the financial crisis, the global macro-trading mode has been greatly questioned, because the performance of this style of funds in recent years has been unsatisfactory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56d17afac58a03d34f987776cb9caeb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Figure 1 Macro hedge funds underperform</b></p><p><b>Unique macro factors of Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p>We call the biases in investors' brains that actually affect asset prices macro factors, or price drivers. Investors with a little experience know that there are many factors that affect asset prices, many of which are micro or industrial factors. When we name it macro, we don't mean that it must be macroeconomic data or events that will affect prices, but generally refer to various variables that have a real impact on prices for a long time. For example, some people have studied the impact of Beijing's smog on investor sentiment. On smog days, investor sentiment is generally low, and it is easier to sell rather than buy. But this is not the macro factor we are talking about, because its impact on asset prices is not sustained and effective. However, the company's profit growth expectation is a macro factor that affects stock prices, because almost at any time, this variable will affect investors' perception of stocks and markets, thus prompting investors to buy and sell.</p><p>So, what are the macro factors that affect Chinese concept stocks?</p><p>First, examine the relationship between China's economic cycle, financial conditions and Chinese concept stocks. We found that Chinese concept stocks are closely related to China's economic cycle, no less than the A50 stock index, and in terms of market performance, the correlation between Chinese concept stocks and A50 is also slightly stronger.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/300a12ca677a0fd4785103236eb19cfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Figure 2 China's economic fundamentals and Chinese concept stock index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e3524abfeebfafd9bb4c4c966d6998\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Figure 3 Chinese concept stocks, A50 and GEM</b></p><p>China's concept stocks have a stronger correlation with large stocks, indicating that these companies are more correlated with the economic cycle. At the same time, investors' evaluation of stocks largely depends on the judgment of economic prospects.</p><p>Second, we examine the relationship between Chinese concept stocks and the Nasdaq index. On average, in the past five years, the linear correlation coefficient between Chinese concept stocks and the Nasdaq has reached 0.7, while the recent correlation coefficient has dropped to 0.44. The recent sharp deviation of Chinese concept stocks from the Nasdaq indicates that other macro factors dominate the price movement.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efa4c73e5ae6b81ddfa0938211f2231\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Figure 4 The deviation between the concept stock index and the Nasdaq reaches a historical extreme value</b></p><p>Third, what is the reason for the current sharp drop in Chinese concept stocks?</p><p>Obviously, it is a series of recent regulatory policies in China that have greatly increased the uncertainty of the market. This characteristic of Chinese concept stocks is completely similar to that of A shares, and it is very sensitive to changes in economic policies and regulatory policies. However, the sharp drop in Chinese concept stocks this time has added an additional layer of uncertainty: Sino-US relations have seriously affected the performance of Chinese concept stocks, thus becoming a macro factor that really affects prices in the long term.</p><p>From this perspective, the future of Chinese concept stocks is full of bumps, because geopolitical uncertainty is the worst uncertainty, and it is difficult to plan in advance. Once it happens, the market will fluctuate extremely quickly. At the same time, the development process of uncertainty is also very tortuous. For example, tonight, the China Securities Regulatory Commission expressed its goodwill for the financial market and stabilizing the capital market expectations, and the market will rebound violently at this time. It is often difficult to assess the stage of uncertainty development and when confirmation ends.</p><p>So is the uncertainty of the moment gone? The short-term market tension should be eased, which may support a wave of rebound in Chinese concept stocks. However, in the medium and long term, changes in regulatory policies and geopolitics of China and the United States have become a basic impact on Chinese concept stock investment variable.</p><p>The future of Chinese concept stocks</p><p>A considerable number of companies in Chinese concept stocks are the most growing companies in China. This is Bill Huang's main reason for betting on these stocks, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>, China's music payment market has just started, and there are countless consumption scenarios where paid music can be introduced. But this is indeed a long process full of twists and turns. From this perspective, there are still some very excellent listed companies in Chinese concept stocks, some of which will inevitably become great companies in the future, and their stocks will also create great value-added.</p><p>However, Chinese concept stocks face two huge challenges: one is the impact of China's economic policies, which have recently become frequent, and the other is the geopolitical impact. The capital market will become a battlefield for the competition between China and the United States, and Chinese concept stocks will become victims of it. In professional terms: the uncertainty of the future of Chinese concept stocks has been amplified, and the result is low valuation. Similar to it is Hong Kong stocks, which are the lowest-valued market in the world, because Hong Kong stocks face a unique uncertain environment: the economies, finances, policies and geopolitics of China and the United States can affect Hong Kong stocks at any time and significantly.</p><p>In a word, the future of Chinese concept stocks is the marginalization and marginalization of Hong Kong stocks, and this process may continue until a new stage of Sino-US geopolitical relations emerges.</p><p>Bill Huang witnessed the most glorious period of Chinese concept stocks and witnessed the beginning and end of glory. For the capital market, we are all dead in the long run, so there is no need to discuss long-term issues.</p>","source":"qqggdh","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The future of Chinese concept stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe future of Chinese concept stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全球宏观投机</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 09:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>What is a global macro perspective</b></p><p>As a distinctive investment and trading category, global macro focuses on seeking medium-term large-scale asset price movement opportunities from the perspective of global and national economic cycles, financial conditions and geopolitics. This price change direction can be upward or downward. Global macro ideas are used for asset allocation, the most typical of which is the Yale Endowment Fund in the Swenson era; For more flexible and changeable transactions, the most typical one is the quantum fund in the era when druckenmiller and Soros jointly managed.</p><p>After the financial crisis, the global macro-trading mode has been greatly questioned, because the performance of this style of funds in recent years has been unsatisfactory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56d17afac58a03d34f987776cb9caeb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Figure 1 Macro hedge funds underperform</b></p><p><b>Unique macro factors of Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p>We call the biases in investors' brains that actually affect asset prices macro factors, or price drivers. Investors with a little experience know that there are many factors that affect asset prices, many of which are micro or industrial factors. When we name it macro, we don't mean that it must be macroeconomic data or events that will affect prices, but generally refer to various variables that have a real impact on prices for a long time. For example, some people have studied the impact of Beijing's smog on investor sentiment. On smog days, investor sentiment is generally low, and it is easier to sell rather than buy. But this is not the macro factor we are talking about, because its impact on asset prices is not sustained and effective. However, the company's profit growth expectation is a macro factor that affects stock prices, because almost at any time, this variable will affect investors' perception of stocks and markets, thus prompting investors to buy and sell.</p><p>So, what are the macro factors that affect Chinese concept stocks?</p><p>First, examine the relationship between China's economic cycle, financial conditions and Chinese concept stocks. We found that Chinese concept stocks are closely related to China's economic cycle, no less than the A50 stock index, and in terms of market performance, the correlation between Chinese concept stocks and A50 is also slightly stronger.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/300a12ca677a0fd4785103236eb19cfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Figure 2 China's economic fundamentals and Chinese concept stock index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e3524abfeebfafd9bb4c4c966d6998\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Figure 3 Chinese concept stocks, A50 and GEM</b></p><p>China's concept stocks have a stronger correlation with large stocks, indicating that these companies are more correlated with the economic cycle. At the same time, investors' evaluation of stocks largely depends on the judgment of economic prospects.</p><p>Second, we examine the relationship between Chinese concept stocks and the Nasdaq index. On average, in the past five years, the linear correlation coefficient between Chinese concept stocks and the Nasdaq has reached 0.7, while the recent correlation coefficient has dropped to 0.44. The recent sharp deviation of Chinese concept stocks from the Nasdaq indicates that other macro factors dominate the price movement.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efa4c73e5ae6b81ddfa0938211f2231\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Figure 4 The deviation between the concept stock index and the Nasdaq reaches a historical extreme value</b></p><p>Third, what is the reason for the current sharp drop in Chinese concept stocks?</p><p>Obviously, it is a series of recent regulatory policies in China that have greatly increased the uncertainty of the market. This characteristic of Chinese concept stocks is completely similar to that of A shares, and it is very sensitive to changes in economic policies and regulatory policies. However, the sharp drop in Chinese concept stocks this time has added an additional layer of uncertainty: Sino-US relations have seriously affected the performance of Chinese concept stocks, thus becoming a macro factor that really affects prices in the long term.</p><p>From this perspective, the future of Chinese concept stocks is full of bumps, because geopolitical uncertainty is the worst uncertainty, and it is difficult to plan in advance. Once it happens, the market will fluctuate extremely quickly. At the same time, the development process of uncertainty is also very tortuous. For example, tonight, the China Securities Regulatory Commission expressed its goodwill for the financial market and stabilizing the capital market expectations, and the market will rebound violently at this time. It is often difficult to assess the stage of uncertainty development and when confirmation ends.</p><p>So is the uncertainty of the moment gone? The short-term market tension should be eased, which may support a wave of rebound in Chinese concept stocks. However, in the medium and long term, changes in regulatory policies and geopolitics of China and the United States have become a basic impact on Chinese concept stock investment variable.</p><p>The future of Chinese concept stocks</p><p>A considerable number of companies in Chinese concept stocks are the most growing companies in China. This is Bill Huang's main reason for betting on these stocks, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>, China's music payment market has just started, and there are countless consumption scenarios where paid music can be introduced. But this is indeed a long process full of twists and turns. From this perspective, there are still some very excellent listed companies in Chinese concept stocks, some of which will inevitably become great companies in the future, and their stocks will also create great value-added.</p><p>However, Chinese concept stocks face two huge challenges: one is the impact of China's economic policies, which have recently become frequent, and the other is the geopolitical impact. The capital market will become a battlefield for the competition between China and the United States, and Chinese concept stocks will become victims of it. In professional terms: the uncertainty of the future of Chinese concept stocks has been amplified, and the result is low valuation. Similar to it is Hong Kong stocks, which are the lowest-valued market in the world, because Hong Kong stocks face a unique uncertain environment: the economies, finances, policies and geopolitics of China and the United States can affect Hong Kong stocks at any time and significantly.</p><p>In a word, the future of Chinese concept stocks is the marginalization and marginalization of Hong Kong stocks, and this process may continue until a new stage of Sino-US geopolitical relations emerges.</p><p>Bill Huang witnessed the most glorious period of Chinese concept stocks and witnessed the beginning and end of glory. For the capital market, we are all dead in the long run, so there is no need to discuss long-term issues.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0zufFWNGXYzP0f-XCuVHMg\">全球宏观投机</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc9de4d397ebba7835e00e3691884586","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0zufFWNGXYzP0f-XCuVHMg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182861188","content_text":"什么是全球宏观视角\n全球宏观作为一种富有特色的投资和交易类别，侧重从全球以及各国经济周期、金融条件和地缘政治的视角寻求中期的大型资产价格运动机会，这个价格变动方向，可以向上，也可以向下。全球宏观思路用于资产配置，最典型的是斯文森时代的耶鲁捐赠基金；而用于更加灵活多变的交易，最典型的是德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯共同管理时代的量子基金。\n金融危机以后，全球宏观交易方式受到很大的质疑，原因在于这种风格的基金近些年的表现不如人意。图一   宏观对冲基金表现不佳\n中概股的独特宏观因子\n我们把实际影响资产价格的投资者大脑中的偏见称之为宏观因子，或者价格驱动因素。略有经验的投资者都知道，影响资产价格的因素非常多，很多都是微观或者产业因素。我们命名为宏观，并不是说一定是宏观经济数据或者事件才会影响价格，而是泛指各种持续长期对价格产生真实影响的变量。比如，有人研究了北京雾霾对投资者情绪的影响，雾霾天投资者情绪总体偏低，更容易卖出而不是买进。但是这并不是我们所讲的宏观因子，因为它对资产价格的影响不是持续有效的。但是，公司盈利增速预期就是影响股票价格的宏观因子，因为几乎在任何时候，这个变量都会影响投资者对股票和市场的感知，从而促使投资者做出买卖行为。\n那么，影响中概股的宏观因子有哪些呢？\n首先考察中国经济周期、金融条件与中概股的关系。我们发现，中概股与中国经济周期关联之紧密，完全不亚于A50股票指数，而在市场表现方面，中概股与A50的相关性也略强。图二 中国经济基本面与中概股指数图三 中概股、A50与创业板\n我中概股与大股票相关性更强，说明这些公司与经济周期的关联度更高，同时，投资者对股票的评估很大程度上面依赖于经济前景的判断。\n其二、我们考察中概股与纳斯达克指数的关系。平均看，过去五年，中概股与纳指的线性相关系数达到了0.7，而最近的相关系数下降到0.44。中概股近期的大幅偏离纳指，说明是其他宏观因子主导了价格运动。图四中概股指数与纳指的偏离达到历史极值\n其三、中概股目前大跌的原因是什么？\n显然是中国最近出台的一系列监管政策，使得市场的不确定性大增。中概股这个特征跟A股完全类似，对经济政策、监管政策的变化非常敏感。但是，中概股这次大跌多了一层额外的不确定性：中美关系严重影响中概股的表现，从而成为一个真正长期影响价格的宏观因子。\n从这个角度讲，中概股未来充满颠簸，因为地缘政治的不确定性是最坏的不确定性，很难事先规划，一旦发生，市场波动的速度极快，同时，不确定性发展过程也非常曲折，比如今晚中国证监会表达对金融市场以及稳定资本市场预期的善意，这个时候市场就会猛烈的反弹。通常很难评估不确定性发展的阶段以及何时确认结束。\n那么当下的不确定性消失了吗？短期市场的紧张情绪应该得到了缓和，可能支持中概股有一波反弹，但是就中长期来看，中美两国的监管政策、地缘政治的变化，已经成为了中概股投资的一个基本影响变量。\n中概股的未来\n中概股的公司相当部分是中国最具成长性的公司。这是比尔黄押注这些股票的主要理由，比如腾讯音乐，中国的音乐付费市场才刚刚启动，还有无数消费场景可以引入付费音乐。但这的确是一个长期充满曲折的过程。从这个角度讲，中概股依然有一些非常优秀的上市公司，其中必然有一些在未来成为伟大的公司，其股票也会创造极大的增值。\n然而，中概股面临两个巨大的挑战：一是中国经济政策的冲击，这种冲击在最近开始变得频繁，二是地缘政治的冲击。资本市场会成为中美角逐的一个战场，而中概股会成为其中的受害者，从专业的术语讲：中概股未来的不确定性已经放大，带来的结果就是估值偏低。而与其类似的是港股，港股是世界上估值最低的市场，因为港股面临独特的不确定性环境：中美两国的经济、金融、政策和地缘政治都可以随时和大幅影响港股。\n一句话，中概股的未来就是港股化和边缘化，这个过程可能要持续到中美地缘政治关系出现新阶段为止。\n比尔黄见证了中概股最辉煌的时期和亲历了辉煌开始结束。对资本市场而言，长期我们都已经死了，所以不需要去讨论长期的问题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836476740,"gmtCreate":1629518877780,"gmtModify":1676530064436,"author":{"id":"3569319906313275","authorId":"3569319906313275","name":"安妮1022","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaea1956e8190b9ea1701017815730b6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569319906313275","idStr":"3569319906313275"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836476740","repostId":"1169407618","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}