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- TORATORA
  ·2025-09-10
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- TORATORA
  ·2022-08-31
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  Will China's trillion hydrogen energy be stuck by Japan?
  政策利好频传，万亿市场大门打开，但日本早在氢能源领域下了重注，未来会对中国企业卡脖子吗？而且氢能源商业化的制氢、储氢、运氢、用氢、安全性，5大难题至今仍是全球难题，这都是氢能源发展的拦路虎。国内氢能源
  Will China's trillion hydrogen energy be stuck by Japan?
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11:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Will China's trillion hydrogen energy be stuck by Japan?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131087669","media":"每日资本论","summary":"政策利好频传，万亿市场大门打开，但日本早在氢能源领域下了重注，未来会对中国企业卡脖子吗？而且氢能源商业化的制氢、储氢、运氢、用氢、安全性，5大难题至今仍是全球难题，这都是氢能源发展的拦路虎。国内氢能源","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Favorable policies are spread frequently, and the door of the trillion-dollar market is open. However, Japan has already made a heavy bet in the field of hydrogen energy. Will it be stuck on Chinese enterprises in the future? Moreover, the five major problems of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation, hydrogen use and safety in the commercialization of hydrogen energy are still global problems, which are all roadblocks for the development of hydrogen energy. Domestic hydrogen energy is in the forefront, but it may be stuck by Japanese enterprises.</p><p>Recently, the benefits of domestic hydrogen energy have been spread frequently. On August 26th, Shanghai issued relevant policies to support the development of hydrogen energy, giving loan interest discount support of up to 200 basis points to qualified hydrogen energy enterprises for bank loans for production, research and development and operation.<b>The annual discount amount shall not exceed 20 million yuan for enterprises above the regulation and 5 million yuan for enterprises under the regulation</b>。</p><p>The day before, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Action Plan for Green and Low-carbon Development of the Information and Communication Industry (2022-2025), which plans to encourage enterprises to build green energy facilities in their own places and cooperate with green energy solution providers to consume them nearby. Promote the use of lithium batteries in an orderly manner and explore applications such as hydrogen fuel cells.</p><p>Five months ago, the Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) issued by relevant state departments has made a clear plan: by 2025, the core technologies and manufacturing processes will be basically mastered, and a hydrogen energy supply system focusing on industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy hydrogen production will be initially established. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed, which will strongly support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a multi-application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of renewable energy hydrogen production in terminal energy consumption will be significantly increased.</p><p>Simply put, China's phased development goals for hydrogen energy in the next 15 years have been set.</p><p>This is undoubtedly a huge benefit for the hydrogen energy market, and the capital market is the first to react. On August 26th, the hydrogen energy sector broke out and staged a daily limit tide across the board, with Degute 20CM daily limit, Jinhong Gas rising by more than 10%, Whitp, Xiongtao shares and Power Xinke shares rising by more than 5%, and Zhiyuan Xinneng, Quanchai Power and Houpu shares rising by more than 5%.</p><p>On August 29th, the hydrogen energy sector remained strong, but the leading stocks have been replaced. Degut, which gained the most in the last trade, opened higher in early trading and rose more than 14% at one point, but then began to slide all the way down. However, HBP, 3D Chemistry and Ice Wheel Environment continued to maintain a strong daily limit trend.</p><p>In particular, Huibopu has broken through the upper edge of the box shock formed since the middle and late June 2018 in the form of a one-word board, and the room for the stock price to rise has opened up, which deserves close attention.</p><p>Research reports of many securities institutions put forward that,<b>2022 will be the first year of explosion for hydrogen and fuel cell industries</b>。 According to the estimate of China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, the output value of China's hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2025, and 5 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2035. It is estimated that hydrogen energy will account for 10% of the energy share by 2050.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that Japan's technology patents in the field of hydrogen energy development account for 30% of the world, ranking first in the world. Among them, Toyota has the most patented technologies for hydrogen energy batteries. Although many patents have been disclosed, it still has some core patented technologies, which other manufacturers can't use.</p><p>The real problem follows, just like Android. On the surface, it is like global enterprises are open, but when the United States wants to sanction anyone, openness will reverse into closure. For example, multinational technology companies such as Microsoft and Intel have always liked to engage in brutal strangulation wars with patent sticks. Will the hydrogen energy sector repeat its mistakes?</p><p>The answer is obvious. What's even more confusing is that even Japan, which takes hydrogen energy as a national policy, has made a 180-degree turn in the use of hydrogen energy-at the beginning of 2021, Nissan announced that it would suspend its plan to cooperate with Daimler and Ford to develop fuel cell vehicles, and will concentrate on the development of electric vehicles in the future. In June of that year, Honda closed its Sayama factory in Japan and stopped producing Clarity, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, but it would still cooperate with General Motors to develop fuel cell vehicles. Only Toyota, which has invested heavily, is still struggling to hold on.</p><p>At the same time, Mercedes-Benz also announced that it would stop developing hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, and its new energy strategy has just changed from \"EV First\" to \"EV Only\". At present, there are not too many European manufacturers who still insist on hydrogen fuel cell technology.</p><p>Even, an article published in Nature has drawn a conclusion to hydrogen energy battery vehicles: hydrogen fuel cells have three major drawbacks in commercialization, out of the game.</p><p>Under such a situation, how many opportunities do domestic hydrogen energy and hydrogen energy vehicles still have? Once domestic hydrogen energy vehicles begin to become popular in the future, will they encounter the patent war of these giant companies? How do we break the game?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b8c631732e81d58e99e7d9bedb22ca\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"96\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Will it get stuck?</b></p><p>To answer whether you will get stuck, you must first answer the topic of Japan's technological closure to technological openness.</p><p>In November 2019, Hisashi Nakai, the authority on hydrogen energy at Toyota Motor Corporation, told some visiting Chinese media,<b>To realize a hydrogen energy society,</b>It needs to be promoted in collaboration with governments, energy suppliers and peers in the automotive industry. That year, the importance of hydrogen energy was also mentioned for the first time in the communique and action plan of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit hosted by Japan.</p><p>Four years ago, Toyota launched the first generation hydrogen energy vehicle \"MIRAI\", thus obtaining more than 5,000 patented technologies. Also in this year,<b>Tesla has disclosed all patented electric vehicle technologies for free.</b></p><p>This car takes about 3~5 minutes to inflate at a time and has a range of up to 650 kilometers. By 2019, the car's annual production volume is 3,200 units, mainly sold in Europe, the United States and Japan, and has not yet entered the Chinese market. The price in Japan is 7 million yen (about 420,000 yuan), the Japanese government subsidies 1/3, and the personal responsibility is about 280,000 yuan. Toyota will basically not lose money.</p><p>Toyota is ambitious — not only do they plan to have 1 million hydrogen vehicles by 2030, but they also want to build a hydrogen society — the intention is clear,<b>Not only do they want business opportunities, but they also want a firm voice in global hydrogen energy</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e37e38b08211b3bd9d0ef28006015\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To this end, Japan has built a complete industrial chain: the import of liquefied gas is undertaken by international trading companies-the manufacturing, processing and storage of hydrogen is done by companies such as Iwatani Industry-the manufacturing of hydrogen energy vehicles is led by companies such as Toyota-the R&D and manufacturing of high-pressure gas tanks is led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, a famous Japanese military enterprise-the R&D and production of new materials for automobiles and gas tanks are in the hands of companies such as Toray.</p><p>This completely opens up the five major links of hydrogen energy: manufacturing, storage, transportation and supply, safety management and utilization.</p><p>Everyone was pleased to see that hydrogenation for 5 minutes and eight or nine hundred kilometers of battery life were not a problem. Moreover, there is a consensus that lithium battery converts fossil energy into electric energy and then stores it in lithium battery, which is not an ideal new energy, and the environmental protection and distribution of hydrogen energy is regarded as one of the ultimate new energy sources.</p><p>Japan also got the killer card of the hydrogen energy society they wanted-from 2011 to 2020, there were as many as 34,600 patent applications for hydrogen energy.</p><p>But embarrassingly, in 2019, Toyota hydrogen energy vehicles, mirai car series sold a total of 2,407 units, while Tesla sold 367,800 units in 2019. The two are completely different.</p><p>In fact, Japan, which wanted to monopolize hydrogen energy patents, also saw the lethality of Tesla's open patented technology. The closure and openness of patented technology is nothing new in the scientific and technological world. For example, Android has gained a new life because of its openness. And Apple has always closed the core of technology, that is, it can't be surpassed.</p><p>Japan is experiencing similar problems with hydrogen. Although, in 2015 Toyota announced that it had opened up the rights to use 5,680 fuel cell technology patents. Four years later, it announced the free opening of 23,740 patents related to core electrification technology.</p><p>But it is too late, and the tide of new energy vehicles with lithium batteries as the core is surging. From the perspective of commercialization, Japan got up early, but missed a good opportunity. That's why Japanese companies withdrew from the field of hydrogen energy batteries one after another last year.</p><p>Note that many people think that Japan is no longer interested in hydrogen energy or have pressed the pause button, which is actually very wrong. They are only pausing in hydrogen fuel cells, while they are continuing to make efforts in other areas of hydrogen energy utilization.</p><p>In the latest news, a research team composed of Japan's \"New Energy Industry Technology Comprehensive Development Agency\" (NEDO), Tokyo Metropolitan University and Shinshu University has developed the technology of decomposing water into hydrogen and oxygen by absorbing sunlight to cause chemical reactions. This experiment can safely separate about 94% of high-purity hydrogen from more than 70% of the hydrogen produced.</p><p>Knock on the board!<b>The successful separation of hydrogen in a large area of 100 square meters is the first in the world.</b>The Japanese media used the term \"revolutionary\" to describe the technological breakthrough. In August this year, the experimental results were published in the international scientific journal \"Nature\".</p><p>In other words, even if Japanese enterprises have opened many patents, Chinese enterprises will have a high probability of encountering technical patent problems that are stuck in the neck when developing and utilizing hydrogen energy. If you don't pay attention, you will trigger a series of patent litigation wars. There are many companies in the technology world that have been brought down by patents.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd93fdf4210aa07e62b48693ac4adcf4\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"96\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What's the difficulty?</b></p><p>Why should we take the news of the world's first large-scale solar hydrogen production in Japan separately? The core reason is that many people's utilization of hydrogen energy often simply regards it as the experiment of extracting hydrogen and oxygen from water through Qipu generator in middle school.</p><p>This is a kind of hydrogen production, which is the ideal state of hydrogen production, also known as green hydrogen. Simply put, it is to make hydrogen by electrolyzing water. The advantage is that the process is simple and the carbon emission is zero. The disadvantage is,<b>Difficult to scale up and high cost</b>。</p><p>In fact, at present, the main hydrogen production paths are gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen and green hydrogen, among which the hydrogen production method of green hydrogen is hydrogen production by electrolysis of water. However, the hydrogen production technology of fossil energy hydrogen production and industrial by-product hydrogen production is relatively mature and the hydrogen production cost is relatively low.</p><p>At present, China is the largest hydrogen producer in the world, but the energy structure dominated by coal is difficult to change, and coal-based hydrogen production is the lowest cost among all hydrogen production methods, and chemical enterprises such as coke-to-gas, coal-to-oil and coal-to-chemical industry produce a large amount of hydrogen.</p><p>The data shows that China's existing coal gasification hydrogen production is about 10 million tons, with a cost of 6-10 yuan/kg; Production of hydrogen from natural gas exceeds 3 million tons, with a cost of about 13-23 yuan/kg; 3 million tons of hydrogen from petroleum, with a cost of 18 yuan/kg; Industrial by-product hydrogen is about 8 million tons, with a cost of 10-16 yuan/kg; Electrolysis of water produces 1 million tons of hydrogen, with a cost of 19-80 yuan/kg.</p><p>However, there are many gaps with foreign countries in the electrolyzer in the hydrogen production link, the vehicle-mounted hydrogen tank in the hydrogen storage link, the hydrogen compressor and hydrogenator in the hydrogen refueling station link, the surface treatment of bipolar plate and membrane electrode spraying equipment in the fuel cell link, the fuel cell system testing and hydrogen quality testing in the testing link, etc.</p><p>For example, platinum, the main catalyst in hydrogen fuel cells, has high cost and low stability, which limits the mass production application of hydrogen energy. There is also the investment of each hydrogen refueling station between 1,500 yuan and 20 million yuan. To promote hydrogen energy vehicles, hydrogen refueling stations must be built on a large scale. Who takes the money, who builds it and who maintains it is all a problem.</p><p>The problem of technical stuck neck still needs to be solved. Most typically, the hydrogen fuel cell gas diffusion layer (GDL) is not only a transport channel for gas phase reactants and liquid water, but also a conduction channel for thermal and electrical energy generated after the reaction-<b>Carbon fiber paper is one of the core technologies</b>One. Toray Company of Japan has a total carbon fiber production capacity of 53,700 tons, ranking first in the world in terms of output and market share, and is far ahead in production technology and process level, with many core patents of carbon paper.</p><p>Although the output of Chinese enterprises has achieved a new breakthrough in 2020, the production capacity of major carbon fiber enterprises such as Zhongfu Shenying and Jiangsu Hengshen is only 8,000 tons and 5,000 tons, which is not the same order of magnitude at all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8fbccadd34c45b042ed83e2dc0d2997\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Another example is hydrogen storage. Like the high-pressure oil delivery system in the construction machinery industry, our country has no technological breakthrough. At present, the technical situation of key hydrogen energy equipment in China is that there are few manufacturers of 45MPa fixed hydrogen storage equipment. Compared with the 70MPa hydrogenation machine that has been commercially operated abroad, China is still in the test and verification stage; The cost of domestic current density of 1.5A/cm2 is generally 2000 yuan/kW, which is far from the international 2.5A/cm2 and 100 yuan/kW; The cost of China's stack volume power of about 2.2-2.7 kW/L is 3,000 yuan/kW, while the international stack cost of 3.1 kW/L is only 1,000 yuan/kW.</p><p>There's also security that can't be avoided. Some people say that hydrogen energy storage is safer and less prone to serious accidents by using the technology that we Xiaobai can't understand. However, the lingering sound of four consecutive hydrogen station explosions worldwide in 2019 has not yet passed.</p><p>However, with the progress of science and technology, there will definitely be a time to overcome these difficulties in the future. Hopefully the day comes soon.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1661917394054","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will China's trillion hydrogen energy be stuck by Japan?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill China's trillion hydrogen energy be stuck by Japan?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日资本论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-31 11:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Favorable policies are spread frequently, and the door of the trillion-dollar market is open. However, Japan has already made a heavy bet in the field of hydrogen energy. Will it be stuck on Chinese enterprises in the future? Moreover, the five major problems of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation, hydrogen use and safety in the commercialization of hydrogen energy are still global problems, which are all roadblocks for the development of hydrogen energy. Domestic hydrogen energy is in the forefront, but it may be stuck by Japanese enterprises.</p><p>Recently, the benefits of domestic hydrogen energy have been spread frequently. On August 26th, Shanghai issued relevant policies to support the development of hydrogen energy, giving loan interest discount support of up to 200 basis points to qualified hydrogen energy enterprises for bank loans for production, research and development and operation.<b>The annual discount amount shall not exceed 20 million yuan for enterprises above the regulation and 5 million yuan for enterprises under the regulation</b>。</p><p>The day before, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Action Plan for Green and Low-carbon Development of the Information and Communication Industry (2022-2025), which plans to encourage enterprises to build green energy facilities in their own places and cooperate with green energy solution providers to consume them nearby. Promote the use of lithium batteries in an orderly manner and explore applications such as hydrogen fuel cells.</p><p>Five months ago, the Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) issued by relevant state departments has made a clear plan: by 2025, the core technologies and manufacturing processes will be basically mastered, and a hydrogen energy supply system focusing on industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy hydrogen production will be initially established. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed, which will strongly support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a multi-application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of renewable energy hydrogen production in terminal energy consumption will be significantly increased.</p><p>Simply put, China's phased development goals for hydrogen energy in the next 15 years have been set.</p><p>This is undoubtedly a huge benefit for the hydrogen energy market, and the capital market is the first to react. On August 26th, the hydrogen energy sector broke out and staged a daily limit tide across the board, with Degute 20CM daily limit, Jinhong Gas rising by more than 10%, Whitp, Xiongtao shares and Power Xinke shares rising by more than 5%, and Zhiyuan Xinneng, Quanchai Power and Houpu shares rising by more than 5%.</p><p>On August 29th, the hydrogen energy sector remained strong, but the leading stocks have been replaced. Degut, which gained the most in the last trade, opened higher in early trading and rose more than 14% at one point, but then began to slide all the way down. However, HBP, 3D Chemistry and Ice Wheel Environment continued to maintain a strong daily limit trend.</p><p>In particular, Huibopu has broken through the upper edge of the box shock formed since the middle and late June 2018 in the form of a one-word board, and the room for the stock price to rise has opened up, which deserves close attention.</p><p>Research reports of many securities institutions put forward that,<b>2022 will be the first year of explosion for hydrogen and fuel cell industries</b>。 According to the estimate of China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, the output value of China's hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2025, and 5 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2035. It is estimated that hydrogen energy will account for 10% of the energy share by 2050.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that Japan's technology patents in the field of hydrogen energy development account for 30% of the world, ranking first in the world. Among them, Toyota has the most patented technologies for hydrogen energy batteries. Although many patents have been disclosed, it still has some core patented technologies, which other manufacturers can't use.</p><p>The real problem follows, just like Android. On the surface, it is like global enterprises are open, but when the United States wants to sanction anyone, openness will reverse into closure. For example, multinational technology companies such as Microsoft and Intel have always liked to engage in brutal strangulation wars with patent sticks. Will the hydrogen energy sector repeat its mistakes?</p><p>The answer is obvious. What's even more confusing is that even Japan, which takes hydrogen energy as a national policy, has made a 180-degree turn in the use of hydrogen energy-at the beginning of 2021, Nissan announced that it would suspend its plan to cooperate with Daimler and Ford to develop fuel cell vehicles, and will concentrate on the development of electric vehicles in the future. In June of that year, Honda closed its Sayama factory in Japan and stopped producing Clarity, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, but it would still cooperate with General Motors to develop fuel cell vehicles. Only Toyota, which has invested heavily, is still struggling to hold on.</p><p>At the same time, Mercedes-Benz also announced that it would stop developing hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, and its new energy strategy has just changed from \"EV First\" to \"EV Only\". At present, there are not too many European manufacturers who still insist on hydrogen fuel cell technology.</p><p>Even, an article published in Nature has drawn a conclusion to hydrogen energy battery vehicles: hydrogen fuel cells have three major drawbacks in commercialization, out of the game.</p><p>Under such a situation, how many opportunities do domestic hydrogen energy and hydrogen energy vehicles still have? Once domestic hydrogen energy vehicles begin to become popular in the future, will they encounter the patent war of these giant companies? How do we break the game?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b8c631732e81d58e99e7d9bedb22ca\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"96\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Will it get stuck?</b></p><p>To answer whether you will get stuck, you must first answer the topic of Japan's technological closure to technological openness.</p><p>In November 2019, Hisashi Nakai, the authority on hydrogen energy at Toyota Motor Corporation, told some visiting Chinese media,<b>To realize a hydrogen energy society,</b>It needs to be promoted in collaboration with governments, energy suppliers and peers in the automotive industry. That year, the importance of hydrogen energy was also mentioned for the first time in the communique and action plan of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit hosted by Japan.</p><p>Four years ago, Toyota launched the first generation hydrogen energy vehicle \"MIRAI\", thus obtaining more than 5,000 patented technologies. Also in this year,<b>Tesla has disclosed all patented electric vehicle technologies for free.</b></p><p>This car takes about 3~5 minutes to inflate at a time and has a range of up to 650 kilometers. By 2019, the car's annual production volume is 3,200 units, mainly sold in Europe, the United States and Japan, and has not yet entered the Chinese market. The price in Japan is 7 million yen (about 420,000 yuan), the Japanese government subsidies 1/3, and the personal responsibility is about 280,000 yuan. Toyota will basically not lose money.</p><p>Toyota is ambitious — not only do they plan to have 1 million hydrogen vehicles by 2030, but they also want to build a hydrogen society — the intention is clear,<b>Not only do they want business opportunities, but they also want a firm voice in global hydrogen energy</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e37e38b08211b3bd9d0ef28006015\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To this end, Japan has built a complete industrial chain: the import of liquefied gas is undertaken by international trading companies-the manufacturing, processing and storage of hydrogen is done by companies such as Iwatani Industry-the manufacturing of hydrogen energy vehicles is led by companies such as Toyota-the R&D and manufacturing of high-pressure gas tanks is led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, a famous Japanese military enterprise-the R&D and production of new materials for automobiles and gas tanks are in the hands of companies such as Toray.</p><p>This completely opens up the five major links of hydrogen energy: manufacturing, storage, transportation and supply, safety management and utilization.</p><p>Everyone was pleased to see that hydrogenation for 5 minutes and eight or nine hundred kilometers of battery life were not a problem. Moreover, there is a consensus that lithium battery converts fossil energy into electric energy and then stores it in lithium battery, which is not an ideal new energy, and the environmental protection and distribution of hydrogen energy is regarded as one of the ultimate new energy sources.</p><p>Japan also got the killer card of the hydrogen energy society they wanted-from 2011 to 2020, there were as many as 34,600 patent applications for hydrogen energy.</p><p>But embarrassingly, in 2019, Toyota hydrogen energy vehicles, mirai car series sold a total of 2,407 units, while Tesla sold 367,800 units in 2019. The two are completely different.</p><p>In fact, Japan, which wanted to monopolize hydrogen energy patents, also saw the lethality of Tesla's open patented technology. The closure and openness of patented technology is nothing new in the scientific and technological world. For example, Android has gained a new life because of its openness. And Apple has always closed the core of technology, that is, it can't be surpassed.</p><p>Japan is experiencing similar problems with hydrogen. Although, in 2015 Toyota announced that it had opened up the rights to use 5,680 fuel cell technology patents. Four years later, it announced the free opening of 23,740 patents related to core electrification technology.</p><p>But it is too late, and the tide of new energy vehicles with lithium batteries as the core is surging. From the perspective of commercialization, Japan got up early, but missed a good opportunity. That's why Japanese companies withdrew from the field of hydrogen energy batteries one after another last year.</p><p>Note that many people think that Japan is no longer interested in hydrogen energy or have pressed the pause button, which is actually very wrong. They are only pausing in hydrogen fuel cells, while they are continuing to make efforts in other areas of hydrogen energy utilization.</p><p>In the latest news, a research team composed of Japan's \"New Energy Industry Technology Comprehensive Development Agency\" (NEDO), Tokyo Metropolitan University and Shinshu University has developed the technology of decomposing water into hydrogen and oxygen by absorbing sunlight to cause chemical reactions. This experiment can safely separate about 94% of high-purity hydrogen from more than 70% of the hydrogen produced.</p><p>Knock on the board!<b>The successful separation of hydrogen in a large area of 100 square meters is the first in the world.</b>The Japanese media used the term \"revolutionary\" to describe the technological breakthrough. In August this year, the experimental results were published in the international scientific journal \"Nature\".</p><p>In other words, even if Japanese enterprises have opened many patents, Chinese enterprises will have a high probability of encountering technical patent problems that are stuck in the neck when developing and utilizing hydrogen energy. If you don't pay attention, you will trigger a series of patent litigation wars. There are many companies in the technology world that have been brought down by patents.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd93fdf4210aa07e62b48693ac4adcf4\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"96\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What's the difficulty?</b></p><p>Why should we take the news of the world's first large-scale solar hydrogen production in Japan separately? The core reason is that many people's utilization of hydrogen energy often simply regards it as the experiment of extracting hydrogen and oxygen from water through Qipu generator in middle school.</p><p>This is a kind of hydrogen production, which is the ideal state of hydrogen production, also known as green hydrogen. Simply put, it is to make hydrogen by electrolyzing water. The advantage is that the process is simple and the carbon emission is zero. The disadvantage is,<b>Difficult to scale up and high cost</b>。</p><p>In fact, at present, the main hydrogen production paths are gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen and green hydrogen, among which the hydrogen production method of green hydrogen is hydrogen production by electrolysis of water. However, the hydrogen production technology of fossil energy hydrogen production and industrial by-product hydrogen production is relatively mature and the hydrogen production cost is relatively low.</p><p>At present, China is the largest hydrogen producer in the world, but the energy structure dominated by coal is difficult to change, and coal-based hydrogen production is the lowest cost among all hydrogen production methods, and chemical enterprises such as coke-to-gas, coal-to-oil and coal-to-chemical industry produce a large amount of hydrogen.</p><p>The data shows that China's existing coal gasification hydrogen production is about 10 million tons, with a cost of 6-10 yuan/kg; Production of hydrogen from natural gas exceeds 3 million tons, with a cost of about 13-23 yuan/kg; 3 million tons of hydrogen from petroleum, with a cost of 18 yuan/kg; Industrial by-product hydrogen is about 8 million tons, with a cost of 10-16 yuan/kg; Electrolysis of water produces 1 million tons of hydrogen, with a cost of 19-80 yuan/kg.</p><p>However, there are many gaps with foreign countries in the electrolyzer in the hydrogen production link, the vehicle-mounted hydrogen tank in the hydrogen storage link, the hydrogen compressor and hydrogenator in the hydrogen refueling station link, the surface treatment of bipolar plate and membrane electrode spraying equipment in the fuel cell link, the fuel cell system testing and hydrogen quality testing in the testing link, etc.</p><p>For example, platinum, the main catalyst in hydrogen fuel cells, has high cost and low stability, which limits the mass production application of hydrogen energy. There is also the investment of each hydrogen refueling station between 1,500 yuan and 20 million yuan. To promote hydrogen energy vehicles, hydrogen refueling stations must be built on a large scale. Who takes the money, who builds it and who maintains it is all a problem.</p><p>The problem of technical stuck neck still needs to be solved. Most typically, the hydrogen fuel cell gas diffusion layer (GDL) is not only a transport channel for gas phase reactants and liquid water, but also a conduction channel for thermal and electrical energy generated after the reaction-<b>Carbon fiber paper is one of the core technologies</b>One. Toray Company of Japan has a total carbon fiber production capacity of 53,700 tons, ranking first in the world in terms of output and market share, and is far ahead in production technology and process level, with many core patents of carbon paper.</p><p>Although the output of Chinese enterprises has achieved a new breakthrough in 2020, the production capacity of major carbon fiber enterprises such as Zhongfu Shenying and Jiangsu Hengshen is only 8,000 tons and 5,000 tons, which is not the same order of magnitude at all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8fbccadd34c45b042ed83e2dc0d2997\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Another example is hydrogen storage. Like the high-pressure oil delivery system in the construction machinery industry, our country has no technological breakthrough. At present, the technical situation of key hydrogen energy equipment in China is that there are few manufacturers of 45MPa fixed hydrogen storage equipment. Compared with the 70MPa hydrogenation machine that has been commercially operated abroad, China is still in the test and verification stage; The cost of domestic current density of 1.5A/cm2 is generally 2000 yuan/kW, which is far from the international 2.5A/cm2 and 100 yuan/kW; The cost of China's stack volume power of about 2.2-2.7 kW/L is 3,000 yuan/kW, while the international stack cost of 3.1 kW/L is only 1,000 yuan/kW.</p><p>There's also security that can't be avoided. Some people say that hydrogen energy storage is safer and less prone to serious accidents by using the technology that we Xiaobai can't understand. However, the lingering sound of four consecutive hydrogen station explosions worldwide in 2019 has not yet passed.</p><p>However, with the progress of science and technology, there will definitely be a time to overcome these difficulties in the future. Hopefully the day comes soon.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1Kv_pXa2fh_nRAxvKVZz1w\">每日资本论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e37e38b08211b3bd9d0ef28006015","relate_stocks":{"300950":"德固特","002554":"惠博普"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1Kv_pXa2fh_nRAxvKVZz1w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131087669","content_text":"政策利好频传，万亿市场大门打开，但日本早在氢能源领域下了重注，未来会对中国企业卡脖子吗？而且氢能源商业化的制氢、储氢、运氢、用氢、安全性，5大难题至今仍是全球难题，这都是氢能源发展的拦路虎。国内氢能源正处于风口，但却可能被日企卡脖子。近日，国内氢能源的利好频传。8月26日，上海市发布支持氢能发展的相关政策，对于符合条件的氢能企业用于生产、研发和经营的银行贷款，给予最高200基点的贷款贴息支持，每年贴息金额规上企业不超过2000万元，规下企业不超过500万元。前一日，工信部等七部门印发信息通信行业绿色低碳发展行动计划(2022-2025年)，计划鼓励企业在自有场所建设绿色能源设施，与绿色能源方案提供方合作就近消纳。有序推广锂电池使用，探索氢燃料电池等应用。5个月前，国家相关部门发布的《氢能产业发展中长期规划（2021—2035年）》已经做出了明晰的规划：到2025年，基本掌握核心技术和制造工艺，初步建立以工业副产氢和可再生能源制氢就近利用为主的氢能供应体系。到2030年，形成较为完备的氢能产业技术创新体系、清洁能源制氢及供应体系，有力支撑碳达峰目标实现。到2035年，形成氢能多元应用生态，可再生能源制氢在终端能源消费中的比例明显提升。简单说，未来15年中国氢能源阶段性的发展目标已经设定。这无疑是氢能源市场巨大利好，资本市场率先做出反应。8月26日当天，氢能源板块全线爆发上演涨停潮，德固特20CM涨停，金宏气体涨超10%、惠特普、雄韬股份、动力新科涨停，致远新能、全柴动力、厚普股份等涨超5%。8月29日，氢能源板块强势依旧，不过领头个股已经更换。上个交易涨幅最猛的德固特早盘高开并一度涨幅超过14%，但随后便开始一路滑落。但惠博普、三维化学、冰轮环境继续保持了强势涨停态势。尤其惠博普是以一字板形式突破了自2018年6月中下旬以来，形成的箱体震荡的上沿，股价上升空间打开，值得密切关注。多家证券机构的研报提出，2022年将是氢能及燃料电池行业的爆发元年。根据中国氢能联盟的预计，2020年至2025年，中国氢能产业产值将达1万亿元，2026年至2035年产值达到5万亿元，预计到2050年氢能将占能源份额10%。但部分市场人士担心，日本在氢能开发领域的技术专利占到全球30%，位列世界第一。其中，丰田公司掌握的氢能源电池专利技术最多，虽然公开了不少专利，但仍然拥有一些核心的专利技术，其他厂家并不能使用。现实的问题随之而来，就像安卓一样，表面上像全球企业开放，但美国想制裁谁时，开放也就逆转成封闭。还比如，微软公司、英特尔等跨国科技公司向来就喜欢拿着专利大棒进行残酷的绞杀战。氢能源领域也会重蹈覆辙吗？答案显而易见。更让人迷惑的是，就连将氢能源作为国策的日本在氢能源使用上也180度大转弯——2021年初，日产宣布暂停与戴姆勒及福特合作开发燃料电池车的计划，今后将集中力量发展电动汽车。当年6月，本田公司关闭日本狭山工厂，停产氢燃料电池车 Clarity，但仍会和通用汽车合作研发燃料电池车。只有投入巨资的丰田公司还在苦苦坚持。与此同时，奔驰方面也表示宣布将停止研发氢燃料电池乘用车，其新能源战略刚刚从“EV First纯电第一”变成了“EV Only纯电唯一”。而目前仍在坚持氢燃料电池技术的欧洲厂商也不太多。甚至，《Nature》发表的一篇文章已经给氢能源电池汽车下了结论：氢燃料电池在商业化方面有三大弊病，出局。如此局面下，国内的氢能源和氢能源汽车还有多少机会？未来一旦国内氢能源汽车开始普及，会不会遭遇这些巨头公司的专利战？我们又该如何破局？会不会被卡脖子？回答会不会被卡脖子要先回答日本从技术封闭到技术开放的这个话题。2019年11月，丰田汽车公司研究氢能源的权威中井久志对来访的部分中国媒体表示，要实现氢能源社会，需要与各国的政府、能源供应商以及汽车行业的同行进行合作一起来推动。当年，日本主办的二十国集团（G20）峰会的公报和行动计划中也首次提到了氢能的重要性。4年前，丰田公司推出了第一代氢能源车“MIRAI”，由此拿到了5000多项专利技术。也在这一年，特斯拉免费公开了所有的电动车专利技术。这辆车一次充气大约需要3～5分钟，续航里程可达650公里。到2019年，该车一年的生产量是3200辆，主要在欧洲、美国和日本销售，尚未进入中国市场。在日本的售价是 700万日元（约42万元人民币），日本政府补贴1/3，个人承担在28万元人民币左右，丰田基本不会亏本。丰田野心勃勃——他们不仅计划到2030年氢能源汽车100万辆，而且要打造氢能源社会——意图很明显，他们不仅要商机，还要牢牢地掌握全球氢能源的话语权。为此，日本打造了一条完整的产业链：液化气的进口由国际商社承担—氢气制造加工储存由岩谷产业等公司来做—氢能源汽车的制造由丰田等公司领头—高压气罐的研发制造由日本著名的军工企业三菱重工等牵头—汽车与气罐新材料的研发生产掌握在东丽公司等公司手中。这就完全打通了氢能源的5大环节：制造、储藏、运输与供给、安全管理、利用。所有人都欣喜地看到，加氢5分钟，八九百公里续航都不是问题。而且，大家也有个共识，锂电池是将化石能源转化成电能再储存到锂电池中，这并非理想中的新能源，而氢能源的环保性和分布被认为是终极新能源之一。日本也拿到他们想要的氢能社会的杀手锏——2011年到2020年氢能源专利申请技术就高达3.46万件。但尴尬的是，2019年丰田氢能源汽车，mirai车系一共卖了2407辆，而特斯拉，2019年销售了36.78万辆。两者完全不可同日而语。事实上，本想垄断氢能源专利的日本也看到了特斯拉这个开放专利技术的杀伤力。关于专利技术的封闭与开放，在科技界早就不是什么新鲜事，比如说安卓因为开放，而获得了新生。而苹果一直封闭技术核心也就是无法超越。日本在氢能方面也遇到了类似问题。尽管，2015年丰田宣布开放了5680项燃料电池技术专利的使用权。四年之后，其又宣布免费开放23740项核心电动化技术相关专利。但为时已晚，锂电为核心的新能源汽车的大潮汹涌而至。从商业化角度来说，日本起了大早，却错失了良机。这才有了去年，日本企业接二连三地退出氢能源电池领域的事儿。请注意，很多人因此就认为日本就不再对氢能源感兴趣或者按下了暂停键，实际大错特错。他们只是在氢燃料电池这块暂停，而在氢能利用的其他领域还在持续发力。最新消息，由日本“新能源产业技术综合开发机构”（NEDO）及东京都大学、信州大学等组成的研究团队，用吸收太阳光造成物质出现化学反应的“光触媒”作用、把水分解为氢与氧所使用的物质的技术研发。这次实验能从产生的逾7成氢中，安全分离出约94%的高纯度氢。敲黑板！在100平方公尺的大范围成功分离出氢是全球首例。日本媒体用了“革命性”一词来形容这次技术突破。今年8月，该实验成果已发表在国际科学期刊“自然”（Nature）。换句话说，即便日本企业开放了很多专利，但中国企业在开发利用氢能源时，会大概率遇到卡脖子的技术专利问题。稍微不注意，就会引发一系列的专利诉讼大战。科技界被专利放倒的企业比比皆是。到底难在哪儿？为什么要将日本的这次全球首例太阳能大规模制氢的消息，单独拿出来说，核心原因是，很多人对于氢能源的利用，往往简单地想成了中学时代通过启普发生器，从水中提炼出氢气和氧气的实验。这是制氢的一种，是理想状态的制氢，也被称为绿氢。简单说，就是通过电解水制造氢气。优点是，工艺简单，零碳排放。缺点是，规模化较难，成本高。事实上，目前制氢路径主要为灰氢、蓝氢、绿氢，其中绿氢的制氢方法为电解水制氢。而化石能源制氢和工业副产氢的制氢技术相对成熟、制氢成本相对较低。目前，中国是全球第一大制氢国，但以煤为主的能源结构难以改变，而煤制氢在所有制氢方式中是成本最低的，且焦制气、煤化油、煤化工等化工企业制氢量很大。数据显示，中国现有煤气化制氢约1000万吨，成本6—10元/公斤；天然气制氢300万吨以上，成本约13—23元/公斤；石油制氢300万吨，成本18元/公斤；工业副产氢约800万吨，成本10—16元/公斤；电解水制氢100万吨，成本19—80元/公斤。但在制氢环节的电解槽，储氢环节的车载氢罐，加氢站环节的氢气压缩机、加氢机，燃料电池环节的双极板表面处理、膜电极喷涂设备，检测测试环节的燃料电池体系检测、氢气品质检测等，均与国外有不少差距。比如，氢燃料电池中的主要催化剂铂成本高，稳定性低，限制了氢能的量产应用。还有每个加氢站的投入在1500元到2000万元之间，氢能源汽车要推广，加氢站就必须要大规模建设，谁拿钱，谁来建，谁来维护，都是问题。技术卡脖子的问题仍待解决。最典型的是，氢燃料电池气体扩散层（GDL）不仅是气相反应物和液体水的运输通道，也是反应后生成的热能和电能的传导通道——碳纤维纸，是核心技术之一。日本的东丽公司的碳纤维总产能高达5.37万吨，产量和市场份额均排名世界第一，并且在生产技术和工艺水平上遥遥领先，拥有碳纸的多项核心专利。中国企业虽然2020年产量实现了新的突破，但中复神鹰、江苏恒神等主要碳纤维企业的产能也不过为8000吨、5000吨，根本不是一个量级。再比如储氢环节。与工程机械行业较高压力的输油系统我们国家还没有技术突破的现状一样，目前中国的氢能关键装备技术情况是，45MPa固定储氢装备可生产装备厂家少，与国外已商业运营的70MPa加氢机相比，我国仍处于试验验证阶段；国内电流密度1.5A/cm2的成本普遍在2000元/千瓦，离国际2.5A/cm2与100元/千瓦差距较大；我国电堆体积功率约2.2—2.7千瓦/升的成本是3000元/千瓦，而国际3.1千瓦/升的电堆成本才1000元/千瓦。还有不能回避的安全性。部分人说总拿我们这些小白看不懂的技术来说氢能源储存安全性比较好，不易发生严重事故。但2019年全球连续4起氢气站爆炸事故的余音至今未了。但这些问题随着科技进步，未来肯定有攻克难关的时候。希望这一天早点到来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300950":0.9,"002554":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}