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turby86

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- turby86turby86
  ·2022-08-29
  $JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL$where will you go the next 48 hrs hm
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- turby86turby86
  ·2022-08-26
  Just a short term blip, focus on quality and you will be fine 🏋️
  504 Comment
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- turby86turby86
  ·2022-08-25
  $JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL$crazy day it was 20 cents at one point lol
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- turby86turby86
  ·2022-08-23
  We'll have to see how we do when we hit the 200 day average point. That's very important psychologically for the technical focused investors!
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- turby86turby86
  ·2022-05-02
  [Cool]
  Buffett's 'Single Best Measure' Of Valuations Implies We Are In A Bubble: Our Approach
  Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News The ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP has been name
  Buffett's 'Single Best Measure' Of Valuations Implies We Are In A Bubble: Our Approach
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- turby86turby86
  ·2022-04-29
  Might short them
  Starbucks Earnings Preview: High Coffee prices and Spent on Employees Make It Under Pressure
  Starbucks(NASDAQ: SBUX)is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings after market closes on Tuesday, May 3.La
  Starbucks Earnings Preview: High Coffee prices and Spent on Employees Make It Under Pressure
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- turby86turby86
  ·2022-04-21
  $TSLA 20220429 900.0 PUT$bet the wrong direction 🤣
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- turby86turby86
  ·2022-04-15
  $TWTR 20220414 45.0 PUT$dumppp
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- turby86turby86
  ·2021-09-16
  $XOP 20220318 87.0 CALL(XOP)$Making an oil play? Take a look at them. Any others?
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- turby86turby86
  ·2021-09-14
  $Jaws Acquisition Corp(CANO)$best steady performer so far
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL\">$JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL$</a>where will you go the next 48 hrs hm","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL\">$JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL$</a>where will you go the next 48 hrs hm","text":"$JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL$where will you go the next 48 hrs hm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997037126","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995795041,"gmtCreate":1661513633886,"gmtModify":1676536532975,"author":{"id":"3570404441559159","authorId":"3570404441559159","name":"turby86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6521a21a170a14789e08b8eb558bb28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570404441559159","authorIdStr":"3570404441559159"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just a short term blip, focus on quality and you will be fine 🏋️","listText":"Just a short term blip, focus on quality and you will be fine 🏋️","text":"Just a short term blip, focus on quality and you will be fine 🏋️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995795041","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995321331,"gmtCreate":1661413668326,"gmtModify":1676536514346,"author":{"id":"3570404441559159","authorId":"3570404441559159","name":"turby86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6521a21a170a14789e08b8eb558bb28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570404441559159","authorIdStr":"3570404441559159"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL\">$JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL$</a>crazy day it was 20 cents at one point lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL\">$JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL$</a>crazy day it was 20 cents at one point lol","text":"$JDC.HK 20220830 245.00 CALL$crazy day it was 20 cents at one point lol","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94d7f10dd89c9d4743d72a5d4e4945bb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995321331","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996782261,"gmtCreate":1661216222055,"gmtModify":1676536476021,"author":{"id":"3570404441559159","authorId":"3570404441559159","name":"turby86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6521a21a170a14789e08b8eb558bb28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570404441559159","authorIdStr":"3570404441559159"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We'll have to see how we do when we hit the 200 day average point. That's very important psychologically for the technical focused investors!","listText":"We'll have to see how we do when we hit the 200 day average point. That's very important psychologically for the technical focused investors!","text":"We'll have to see how we do when we hit the 200 day average point. That's very important psychologically for the technical focused investors!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996782261","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063549114,"gmtCreate":1651499612825,"gmtModify":1676534916545,"author":{"id":"3570404441559159","authorId":"3570404441559159","name":"turby86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6521a21a170a14789e08b8eb558bb28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570404441559159","authorIdStr":"3570404441559159"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063549114","repostId":"2232097710","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2232097710","pubTimestamp":1651500000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232097710?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-02 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett's 'Single Best Measure' Of Valuations Implies We Are In A Bubble: Our Approach","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232097710","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News The ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP has been name","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture><img height=\"1024px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/73562040/image_73562040.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP has been named \"The Buffett Indicator\" because Warren Buffett - the legendary CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) - once called it \"the best single measure<span> of where valuations stand at any given moment.\"</span></p> <p>Essentially what it represents is the value of expected future economic activity discounted back to the present compared to the total value of current economic activity. In this sense, it is strikingly similar to the price to earnings ratio that is commonly used to value individual stocks.</p> <p>Based on the historical data, the Buffett Indicator looks extremely bloated, with the total market value to GDP ratio at ~190%. This looks overvalued even when assuming an exponential trendline that accounts for improving technology that should lead to increased capital productivity and therefore more rapid growth over time.</p> <p><figure><picture><span><img height=\"320\" hspace=\"6\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/4/28/47771937-16511790500949657.png\" vspace=\"6\" width=\"640\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Buffett Indicator (Current Market Valuation)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>With popular index funds like SPDR S&amp;P 500 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) trading near record highs and an increasingly large percentage of the stock market consisting of high growth tech stocks with rosy future projections delivering frothy price to earnings ratios (for example, Tesla (TSLA) and virtually all of the stocks in the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a> (ARKK)), it is a legitimate question whether or not the market is in a bubble. In fact, several big name tech giants have taken a beating recently due to a failure to deliver on those rosy expectations, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a> (FB) and Netflix (NFLX).</p> <p>Other reasons to be bearish include the soaring inflation that is pinching corporate profits as well as the consumer's pocketbook, ongoing supply chain challenges that are taking a bite out of global economic growth, the severe COVID-19 lockdowns taking place in China that could cause the country to experience a material economic slowdown, and rapidly rising geopolitical tensions between the world's superpowers in the U.S., Russia, China, and Europe. If any <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of these issues are not successfully resolved in the near future, the global economy will likely significantly underperform future expectations. This would then undoubtedly lead to serious underperformance for the stock market.</p> <p>A final risk to keep in mind involves interest rates. We have been in an environment of historically low interest rates for years now, especially over the past decade. This has undoubtedly played an outsized role in pushing stock market valuation multiples higher. If interest rates indeed soar higher in an effort to combat runaway inflation, it would likely pull market valuations materially lower in the process.</p> <h2>Reasons To Be Bullish</h2> <p>While the case for bears on the current market valuation is certainly compelling, the market is not entirely irrational either. Bulls do have a strong case as well.</p> <p>In a manner similar to the broader stock market, the \"fair value\" ratio of market value to GDP is largely a function of interest rates as well as the future economic growth outlook. The lower the interest rate and the stronger the future economic growth outlook, the higher valuation multiples are warranted in going.</p> <p>As a result, when you consider that we are still in an era of historically low interest rates, it should not be surprising that the stock market is trading near historic highs:</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" hspace=\"6\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/4/27/saupload_966786244b77fa48ba8f853ae73fa84b.png\" vspace=\"6\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>Additionally, perhaps the biggest wild card of all that could render historical data relatively moot when assessing the current market valuation is the simple fact that technological innovation is accelerating at an unprecedented pace.</p> <p>While interest rate trends, inflation rates, and historical valuation data all paint a fairly gloomy outlook for future market performance, if the current exciting technological innovation trends manifest as quickly as they appear on pace to, inflation may not be such a big problem after all, and the economy could see a new period of growth and prosperity with deflation rather than inflation.</p> <p>With technologies like artificial intelligence, robotics, autonomous mobility, genomics, blockchain, and alternative energy generation and storage currently undergoing rapid development, we could see our world and understanding of how the economy works change rapidly in the coming years. As a result, we could see an \"age of abundance\" as prophesied by Elon Musk with goods and services readily available to virtually everyone, qualities of life soaring higher, and prices for these goods and services dropping dramatically due to rapid improvements in automation. We could also see healthcare costs plummet from advances in medical technology as well as genomics that will lead to more efficient medical services and treatments as well as an explosion in preventative medicine.</p> <p>If this scenario actually plays out, much of the inflation we are seeing today - largely stemming from supply chain bottlenecks and a labor shortage in key industries - will be wiped out and growth rates should soar. As a result, interest rates will likely turn out to not be so unrealistically low after all and the growth rates will more than justify the current sky-high valuation multiple assigned to product capital.</p> <h2>Our Approach: A Mixed Bag</h2> <p>While it is tempting to come down on one side or the other here, we believe the most important trait for any investor is humility. We openly admit that we have no foreknowledge of how things will play out. The current geopolitical crises could very possibly devolve into World War 3 and involve a nuclear holocaust for one or more major economies. Inflation could remain untamable for years as technological innovations are simply overwhelmed by massive government spending programs, major wars, and ongoing labor shortages.</p> <p>On the other hand, it is tough to bet against technology, especially given that our world is becoming smaller and smaller, and information is spreading and being combined at an exponential rate of acceleration. We truly could have an exceptionally exciting future of prosperity in store for us if we can avoid more major wars and governments can temper spending enough for technological innovation to bring inflation down to the point where consumers are greeted with abundance.</p> <p>As a result, we try to remain diversified and hedge our bets against all potential outcomes while maintaining an emphasis on quality, value, and income. We also like to invest in businesses that will likely remain in demand regardless of what outcome plays out (barring a devastating nuclear war, obviously). Some of our favorite picks of the moment include Barrick Gold (GOLD), Virtu Financial (VIRT), Energy Transfer (ET), and Patria Investments (PAX).</p> <p>GOLD positions our portfolio to benefit from runaway inflation as it provides leveraged exposure to gold, silver, and copper prices. At the same time, its operational excellence, world class portfolio of mines, cheap valuation relative to peers, net debt-free balance sheet, massive free cash flow generation, and increasingly shareholder friendly capital allocation policy minimize much of the long-term downside risk. As part of a well-diversified portfolio, GOLD offers exceptional risk-reward.</p> <p>VIRT is another great portfolio hedge for us against the negative scenario playing out for the global economy. As a high frequency trader across a wide variety of securities exchanges including stocks, fixed income, options, and cryptocurrency, VIRT profits from spikes in volatility. As a result, its most prosperous periods were the market crashes of 2008 and 2020 and we would expect it to profit similarly if we faced a similar scenario in the future. However, it also pays out a nice dividend yield of 2.83% at present and also has retired over 6% of outstanding shares over the past year and a half alongside numerous organic growth initiatives that it is advancing. As a result, VIRT serves as an excellent source of portfolio insurance that pays us a nice dividend, grows on an organic basis, and buys back stock while we wait for another market crash.</p> <p>ET is a leading energy midstream stock that is growing its distribution rapidly while also fortifying its investment grade balance sheet. While the cheap valuation and high yield make it a compelling investment from a total return perspective, we also think its exposure to various macroeconomic factors makes it a great portfolio diversifier. First and foremost, it is an excellent inflation hedge since most of its pipeline contracts are indexed to inflation. Furthermore, energy prices tend to rise in an inflationary environment, increasing the value of the commodities that its infrastructure assets service. At the same time, its contracts tend to be long-term, fixed-fee, take-or-pay contracts that make it remarkably resilient to downturns in the energy sector and economy as a whole.</p> <p>Last, but not least, PAX is an alternative asset manager in Latin America and is well-positioned to become the dominant player in that region. If that plays out, and the global economy enters a period of prosperity with lower inflation and interest rates than the current trends suggest, we expect PAX to be a major benefactor. As technological innovation spreads across the globe, developing markets like those in PAX's area of operations will likely see enormous growth and the lower inflation and interest rates will push the value of its assets up substantially higher. In the meantime, PAX has a debt free balance sheet with plenty of cash and also pays out a hefty yield through its 85% distributable earnings payout ratio policy.</p> <h2>Investor Takeaway</h2> <p>While the future is always unknown, the elevated Buffett Indicator is clearly a cause for concern. The bear case is unsettlingly compelling, with soaring inflation, reckless government spending, escalating geopolitical tensions, and rising interest rates all threatening to pop the bubble-like valuations currently seen in public markets.</p> <p>At the same time, technological innovation is also marching rapidly and relentlessly forward. If current innovation trends successfully deliver on their exceptional promise in the coming years, we could see some massive deflationary forces successfully counteract the aforementioned inflationary trends and the globe could see a period of abundance.</p> <p>Our approach to this is to - instead of trying to guess which scenario will play out and to what degree - maintain portfolio balance and invest in attractively priced high-quality businesses that are poised to profit from a wide variety of scenarios. This way we can sleep well at night, collect substantial income, and be prepared to profit from whatever happens. While we hold over 30 securities in our portfolio at High Yield Investor, we shared four of our picks in this article that we believe can help investors begin to build a well-diversified portfolio to weather potential market turbulence in the years to come without giving up potential upside either.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett's 'Single Best Measure' Of Valuations Implies We Are In A Bubble: Our Approach</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett's 'Single Best Measure' Of Valuations Implies We Are In A Bubble: Our Approach\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-02 22:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505019-buffetts-best-measure-valuations-implies-bubble-approach><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News The ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP has been named \"The Buffett Indicator\" because Warren Buffett - the legendary CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505019-buffetts-best-measure-valuations-implies-bubble-approach\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4566":"资本集团","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4508":"社交媒体","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","VIRT":"Virtu Financial, Inc.","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集","BK4573":"虚拟现实","PAX":"Patria Investments Ltd","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4017":"黄金","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","GOLD":"巴里克黄金","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4555":"新能源车","OEX":"标普100","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4507":"流媒体概念","ET":"Energy Transfer LP","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505019-buffetts-best-measure-valuations-implies-bubble-approach","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2232097710","content_text":"Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News The ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP has been named \"The Buffett Indicator\" because Warren Buffett - the legendary CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) - once called it \"the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.\" Essentially what it represents is the value of expected future economic activity discounted back to the present compared to the total value of current economic activity. In this sense, it is strikingly similar to the price to earnings ratio that is commonly used to value individual stocks. Based on the historical data, the Buffett Indicator looks extremely bloated, with the total market value to GDP ratio at ~190%. This looks overvalued even when assuming an exponential trendline that accounts for improving technology that should lead to increased capital productivity and therefore more rapid growth over time. Buffett Indicator (Current Market Valuation) With popular index funds like SPDR S&P 500 Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) trading near record highs and an increasingly large percentage of the stock market consisting of high growth tech stocks with rosy future projections delivering frothy price to earnings ratios (for example, Tesla (TSLA) and virtually all of the stocks in the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)), it is a legitimate question whether or not the market is in a bubble. In fact, several big name tech giants have taken a beating recently due to a failure to deliver on those rosy expectations, including Meta Platforms (FB) and Netflix (NFLX). Other reasons to be bearish include the soaring inflation that is pinching corporate profits as well as the consumer's pocketbook, ongoing supply chain challenges that are taking a bite out of global economic growth, the severe COVID-19 lockdowns taking place in China that could cause the country to experience a material economic slowdown, and rapidly rising geopolitical tensions between the world's superpowers in the U.S., Russia, China, and Europe. If any one of these issues are not successfully resolved in the near future, the global economy will likely significantly underperform future expectations. This would then undoubtedly lead to serious underperformance for the stock market. A final risk to keep in mind involves interest rates. We have been in an environment of historically low interest rates for years now, especially over the past decade. This has undoubtedly played an outsized role in pushing stock market valuation multiples higher. If interest rates indeed soar higher in an effort to combat runaway inflation, it would likely pull market valuations materially lower in the process. Reasons To Be Bullish While the case for bears on the current market valuation is certainly compelling, the market is not entirely irrational either. Bulls do have a strong case as well. In a manner similar to the broader stock market, the \"fair value\" ratio of market value to GDP is largely a function of interest rates as well as the future economic growth outlook. The lower the interest rate and the stronger the future economic growth outlook, the higher valuation multiples are warranted in going. As a result, when you consider that we are still in an era of historically low interest rates, it should not be surprising that the stock market is trading near historic highs: Data by YCharts Additionally, perhaps the biggest wild card of all that could render historical data relatively moot when assessing the current market valuation is the simple fact that technological innovation is accelerating at an unprecedented pace. While interest rate trends, inflation rates, and historical valuation data all paint a fairly gloomy outlook for future market performance, if the current exciting technological innovation trends manifest as quickly as they appear on pace to, inflation may not be such a big problem after all, and the economy could see a new period of growth and prosperity with deflation rather than inflation. With technologies like artificial intelligence, robotics, autonomous mobility, genomics, blockchain, and alternative energy generation and storage currently undergoing rapid development, we could see our world and understanding of how the economy works change rapidly in the coming years. As a result, we could see an \"age of abundance\" as prophesied by Elon Musk with goods and services readily available to virtually everyone, qualities of life soaring higher, and prices for these goods and services dropping dramatically due to rapid improvements in automation. We could also see healthcare costs plummet from advances in medical technology as well as genomics that will lead to more efficient medical services and treatments as well as an explosion in preventative medicine. If this scenario actually plays out, much of the inflation we are seeing today - largely stemming from supply chain bottlenecks and a labor shortage in key industries - will be wiped out and growth rates should soar. As a result, interest rates will likely turn out to not be so unrealistically low after all and the growth rates will more than justify the current sky-high valuation multiple assigned to product capital. Our Approach: A Mixed Bag While it is tempting to come down on one side or the other here, we believe the most important trait for any investor is humility. We openly admit that we have no foreknowledge of how things will play out. The current geopolitical crises could very possibly devolve into World War 3 and involve a nuclear holocaust for one or more major economies. Inflation could remain untamable for years as technological innovations are simply overwhelmed by massive government spending programs, major wars, and ongoing labor shortages. On the other hand, it is tough to bet against technology, especially given that our world is becoming smaller and smaller, and information is spreading and being combined at an exponential rate of acceleration. We truly could have an exceptionally exciting future of prosperity in store for us if we can avoid more major wars and governments can temper spending enough for technological innovation to bring inflation down to the point where consumers are greeted with abundance. As a result, we try to remain diversified and hedge our bets against all potential outcomes while maintaining an emphasis on quality, value, and income. We also like to invest in businesses that will likely remain in demand regardless of what outcome plays out (barring a devastating nuclear war, obviously). Some of our favorite picks of the moment include Barrick Gold (GOLD), Virtu Financial (VIRT), Energy Transfer (ET), and Patria Investments (PAX). GOLD positions our portfolio to benefit from runaway inflation as it provides leveraged exposure to gold, silver, and copper prices. At the same time, its operational excellence, world class portfolio of mines, cheap valuation relative to peers, net debt-free balance sheet, massive free cash flow generation, and increasingly shareholder friendly capital allocation policy minimize much of the long-term downside risk. As part of a well-diversified portfolio, GOLD offers exceptional risk-reward. VIRT is another great portfolio hedge for us against the negative scenario playing out for the global economy. As a high frequency trader across a wide variety of securities exchanges including stocks, fixed income, options, and cryptocurrency, VIRT profits from spikes in volatility. As a result, its most prosperous periods were the market crashes of 2008 and 2020 and we would expect it to profit similarly if we faced a similar scenario in the future. However, it also pays out a nice dividend yield of 2.83% at present and also has retired over 6% of outstanding shares over the past year and a half alongside numerous organic growth initiatives that it is advancing. As a result, VIRT serves as an excellent source of portfolio insurance that pays us a nice dividend, grows on an organic basis, and buys back stock while we wait for another market crash. ET is a leading energy midstream stock that is growing its distribution rapidly while also fortifying its investment grade balance sheet. While the cheap valuation and high yield make it a compelling investment from a total return perspective, we also think its exposure to various macroeconomic factors makes it a great portfolio diversifier. First and foremost, it is an excellent inflation hedge since most of its pipeline contracts are indexed to inflation. Furthermore, energy prices tend to rise in an inflationary environment, increasing the value of the commodities that its infrastructure assets service. At the same time, its contracts tend to be long-term, fixed-fee, take-or-pay contracts that make it remarkably resilient to downturns in the energy sector and economy as a whole. Last, but not least, PAX is an alternative asset manager in Latin America and is well-positioned to become the dominant player in that region. If that plays out, and the global economy enters a period of prosperity with lower inflation and interest rates than the current trends suggest, we expect PAX to be a major benefactor. As technological innovation spreads across the globe, developing markets like those in PAX's area of operations will likely see enormous growth and the lower inflation and interest rates will push the value of its assets up substantially higher. In the meantime, PAX has a debt free balance sheet with plenty of cash and also pays out a hefty yield through its 85% distributable earnings payout ratio policy. Investor Takeaway While the future is always unknown, the elevated Buffett Indicator is clearly a cause for concern. The bear case is unsettlingly compelling, with soaring inflation, reckless government spending, escalating geopolitical tensions, and rising interest rates all threatening to pop the bubble-like valuations currently seen in public markets. At the same time, technological innovation is also marching rapidly and relentlessly forward. If current innovation trends successfully deliver on their exceptional promise in the coming years, we could see some massive deflationary forces successfully counteract the aforementioned inflationary trends and the globe could see a period of abundance. Our approach to this is to - instead of trying to guess which scenario will play out and to what degree - maintain portfolio balance and invest in attractively priced high-quality businesses that are poised to profit from a wide variety of scenarios. This way we can sleep well at night, collect substantial income, and be prepared to profit from whatever happens. While we hold over 30 securities in our portfolio at High Yield Investor, we shared four of our picks in this article that we believe can help investors begin to build a well-diversified portfolio to weather potential market turbulence in the years to come without giving up potential upside either.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069904942,"gmtCreate":1651212646326,"gmtModify":1676534871948,"author":{"id":"3570404441559159","authorId":"3570404441559159","name":"turby86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6521a21a170a14789e08b8eb558bb28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570404441559159","authorIdStr":"3570404441559159"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Might short them","listText":"Might short them","text":"Might short them","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069904942","repostId":"1182678684","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182678684","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651204806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182678684?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-29 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks Earnings Preview: High Coffee prices and Spent on Employees Make It Under Pressure","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182678684","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Starbucks(NASDAQ: SBUX)is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings after market closes on Tuesday, May 3.La","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Starbucks(NASDAQ: SBUX)is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings after market closes on Tuesday, May 3.</p><p><b>Latest Results and FY22 Guidance</b></p><p>For the three months ended Jan. 2, Starbucks reported per-share earnings of 72 cents, after adjusting for one-time items, below analysts&#39; expectations of 80 cents per share, according to FactSet.</p><p>It reported net income of $816 million, up 31% from a year earlier. The chain&#39;s total sales of $8.1 billion topped expectations of $7.98 billion.</p><p>Starbucks reported a same-store sales increase of 18% at U.S. stores compared with a year earlier. Sales weakened in the latter part of the quarter, during the Omicron surge, the company said. China, a significant market for the chain, suffered during the period, with same-store sales falling 14%, Starbucks said.</p><p>Its executive says the company expects FY22 GAAP EPS to decline by 4%-6% and Non-GAAP EPS to grow 8%-10%, and expects FY22 GAAP operating margin will approach 16.5%, Non-GAAP to approach 17%.</p><p><b>3</b> <b>Most Important Things to Watch</b></p><p><b>1.</b> <b>Schultz’s Early Moves at Starbucks Suggest Deeper Changes Coming</b></p><p>Schultz led Starbucks’s aggressive expansion in the 1980s and ’90s before stepping down as CEO in 2000. He returned again as CEO from 2008 to 2017. In his third go-around, the 68-year-old is also rejoining the board and handling day-to-day operations.</p><p>He’s already frozen stock repurchases that were part of a $20 billion package, saying the money would be better spent on employees and cafe improvements. And he dismissed the company’s top lawyer while pledging to offer better benefits for workers to dissuade them from unionizing.</p><p><b>2.</b> <b>Coffee prices remain elevated on supply and demand</b></p><p>Supply and demand was mixed with stronger demand from China and higher supply from Vietnam. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected that China&#39;s 2022 coffee imports would grow by +5% this year to 4 million bags. Also supportive of higher prices was dry weather in Brazil, with rainfall in the Minas Gerais area, which makes up 30% of Brazil&#39;s arabica crop, was only 40% of the historical average.</p><p>On the bearish side, the Green Coffee Association reported this week that US March green coffee inventories rose +1.0% m/m and +2.5% y/y to 5.82 million bags.</p><p>With no end in sight to the Ukraine tensions, there are fears that Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine will add to inflation, curb consumer spending, and reduce coffee consumption as consumers tighten their belts.</p><p>For Starbucks, that may not mean that coffee house visits are reduced, but that the average spend is reduced.</p><p>Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are providing a bullish stimulus for prices and pushed arabica coffee up to a 10-1/2 year nearest-futures highs on Feb 10. The International Coffee Organization also cut its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags from a previous estimate of a +1.2 mln bag surplus.</p><p>Another headwind would come from a potential structural low in the Brazilian Real. Brazilian production costs, including labor and other expenses, are in the Brazilian real. A falling real weighs on arabica coffee’s price as Brazilian supplies have lower production costs and can fetch more dollars. A rising real has the opposite impact, pushing coffee prices higher.</p><p><b>3.</b> <b>Sales in</b> <b>China and Europe Are a Great Concern</b></p><p>A further headwind for the company will come from the strict lockdowns in China, which are being enforced due to Coronavirus. The US and China make up 61% of the company&#39;s global footprint and Starbucks also wanted to start a more aggressive expansion in China. In Q1 results, China&#39;s comparable store sales were down 14% and it is hard to see that getting better with the prolonged lockdowns.</p><p>The real problem will come from forward guidance and the following quarters. Operations have been suspended in Russia, while Chinese consumers are locked down in big cities like Shanghai. At home and in Europe, consumers are being squeezed by soaring inflation that could see them reduce their average spending.</p><p><b>Analyst Opinions</b></p><p>BTIG analyst Peter Saleh maintained a “Buy” rating and offered a $110 price target. Saleh adjusted the rating while cutting the 2022 and 2023 earnings estimates to reflect the uncertainty of unionization, the high probability of wage and benefit investment, and the recently announced suspension of share repurchase. But Saleh believes that the risk to traffic is nominal as only 4% of consumers responding to the BTIG survey claim they will not visit anymore if an agreement on unions is not reached. </p><p>Zacks Investment Research cut it from a hold rating to a sell rating and gave it an $83.00 target price. According to Zacks, “Although shares of Starbucks have underperformed the industry in the past six months, it might take a U-turn as the company is benefiting from store growth, robust digitalization and comps growth. During first-quarter fiscal 2022, global comparable store sales increased 13% year over year, driven by an increase in comparable transactions and average ticket growth. For fiscal 2022, the company anticipates global comparable sales to reach high-single digits. Starbucks expects to open nearly 2,000 net new stores worldwide in fiscal 2022. However, dismal China&#39;s performance continues to hurt Starbucks. During the fiscal first quarter, comps in China declined 14% year over year against a 5% growth reported in the prior-year quarter. Strategic investments and cost inflation might impact the company’s earnings in 2022.”</p><p>MKM Partners analyst Brett Levymaintained a “Buy” rating and offered a $110 price target. Levy adjusted the rating as part of a broader research note on restaurants heading into Q1 earnings. And many of the moving parts facing the group are skewing negatively, including pricing, inflation, and demand-related issues. Plus Levy pointed out that the company is facing choppy international demand picture.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks Earnings Preview: High Coffee prices and Spent on Employees Make It Under Pressure</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks Earnings Preview: High Coffee prices and Spent on Employees Make It Under Pressure\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-29 12:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Starbucks(NASDAQ: SBUX)is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings after market closes on Tuesday, May 3.</p><p><b>Latest Results and FY22 Guidance</b></p><p>For the three months ended Jan. 2, Starbucks reported per-share earnings of 72 cents, after adjusting for one-time items, below analysts&#39; expectations of 80 cents per share, according to FactSet.</p><p>It reported net income of $816 million, up 31% from a year earlier. The chain&#39;s total sales of $8.1 billion topped expectations of $7.98 billion.</p><p>Starbucks reported a same-store sales increase of 18% at U.S. stores compared with a year earlier. Sales weakened in the latter part of the quarter, during the Omicron surge, the company said. China, a significant market for the chain, suffered during the period, with same-store sales falling 14%, Starbucks said.</p><p>Its executive says the company expects FY22 GAAP EPS to decline by 4%-6% and Non-GAAP EPS to grow 8%-10%, and expects FY22 GAAP operating margin will approach 16.5%, Non-GAAP to approach 17%.</p><p><b>3</b> <b>Most Important Things to Watch</b></p><p><b>1.</b> <b>Schultz’s Early Moves at Starbucks Suggest Deeper Changes Coming</b></p><p>Schultz led Starbucks’s aggressive expansion in the 1980s and ’90s before stepping down as CEO in 2000. He returned again as CEO from 2008 to 2017. In his third go-around, the 68-year-old is also rejoining the board and handling day-to-day operations.</p><p>He’s already frozen stock repurchases that were part of a $20 billion package, saying the money would be better spent on employees and cafe improvements. And he dismissed the company’s top lawyer while pledging to offer better benefits for workers to dissuade them from unionizing.</p><p><b>2.</b> <b>Coffee prices remain elevated on supply and demand</b></p><p>Supply and demand was mixed with stronger demand from China and higher supply from Vietnam. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected that China&#39;s 2022 coffee imports would grow by +5% this year to 4 million bags. Also supportive of higher prices was dry weather in Brazil, with rainfall in the Minas Gerais area, which makes up 30% of Brazil&#39;s arabica crop, was only 40% of the historical average.</p><p>On the bearish side, the Green Coffee Association reported this week that US March green coffee inventories rose +1.0% m/m and +2.5% y/y to 5.82 million bags.</p><p>With no end in sight to the Ukraine tensions, there are fears that Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine will add to inflation, curb consumer spending, and reduce coffee consumption as consumers tighten their belts.</p><p>For Starbucks, that may not mean that coffee house visits are reduced, but that the average spend is reduced.</p><p>Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are providing a bullish stimulus for prices and pushed arabica coffee up to a 10-1/2 year nearest-futures highs on Feb 10. The International Coffee Organization also cut its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags from a previous estimate of a +1.2 mln bag surplus.</p><p>Another headwind would come from a potential structural low in the Brazilian Real. Brazilian production costs, including labor and other expenses, are in the Brazilian real. A falling real weighs on arabica coffee’s price as Brazilian supplies have lower production costs and can fetch more dollars. A rising real has the opposite impact, pushing coffee prices higher.</p><p><b>3.</b> <b>Sales in</b> <b>China and Europe Are a Great Concern</b></p><p>A further headwind for the company will come from the strict lockdowns in China, which are being enforced due to Coronavirus. The US and China make up 61% of the company&#39;s global footprint and Starbucks also wanted to start a more aggressive expansion in China. In Q1 results, China&#39;s comparable store sales were down 14% and it is hard to see that getting better with the prolonged lockdowns.</p><p>The real problem will come from forward guidance and the following quarters. Operations have been suspended in Russia, while Chinese consumers are locked down in big cities like Shanghai. At home and in Europe, consumers are being squeezed by soaring inflation that could see them reduce their average spending.</p><p><b>Analyst Opinions</b></p><p>BTIG analyst Peter Saleh maintained a “Buy” rating and offered a $110 price target. Saleh adjusted the rating while cutting the 2022 and 2023 earnings estimates to reflect the uncertainty of unionization, the high probability of wage and benefit investment, and the recently announced suspension of share repurchase. But Saleh believes that the risk to traffic is nominal as only 4% of consumers responding to the BTIG survey claim they will not visit anymore if an agreement on unions is not reached. </p><p>Zacks Investment Research cut it from a hold rating to a sell rating and gave it an $83.00 target price. According to Zacks, “Although shares of Starbucks have underperformed the industry in the past six months, it might take a U-turn as the company is benefiting from store growth, robust digitalization and comps growth. During first-quarter fiscal 2022, global comparable store sales increased 13% year over year, driven by an increase in comparable transactions and average ticket growth. For fiscal 2022, the company anticipates global comparable sales to reach high-single digits. Starbucks expects to open nearly 2,000 net new stores worldwide in fiscal 2022. However, dismal China&#39;s performance continues to hurt Starbucks. During the fiscal first quarter, comps in China declined 14% year over year against a 5% growth reported in the prior-year quarter. Strategic investments and cost inflation might impact the company’s earnings in 2022.”</p><p>MKM Partners analyst Brett Levymaintained a “Buy” rating and offered a $110 price target. Levy adjusted the rating as part of a broader research note on restaurants heading into Q1 earnings. And many of the moving parts facing the group are skewing negatively, including pricing, inflation, and demand-related issues. Plus Levy pointed out that the company is facing choppy international demand picture.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182678684","content_text":"Starbucks(NASDAQ: SBUX)is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings after market closes on Tuesday, May 3.Latest Results and FY22 GuidanceFor the three months ended Jan. 2, Starbucks reported per-share earnings of 72 cents, after adjusting for one-time items, below analysts' expectations of 80 cents per share, according to FactSet.It reported net income of $816 million, up 31% from a year earlier. The chain's total sales of $8.1 billion topped expectations of $7.98 billion.Starbucks reported a same-store sales increase of 18% at U.S. stores compared with a year earlier. Sales weakened in the latter part of the quarter, during the Omicron surge, the company said. China, a significant market for the chain, suffered during the period, with same-store sales falling 14%, Starbucks said.Its executive says the company expects FY22 GAAP EPS to decline by 4%-6% and Non-GAAP EPS to grow 8%-10%, and expects FY22 GAAP operating margin will approach 16.5%, Non-GAAP to approach 17%.3 Most Important Things to Watch1. Schultz’s Early Moves at Starbucks Suggest Deeper Changes ComingSchultz led Starbucks’s aggressive expansion in the 1980s and ’90s before stepping down as CEO in 2000. He returned again as CEO from 2008 to 2017. In his third go-around, the 68-year-old is also rejoining the board and handling day-to-day operations.He’s already frozen stock repurchases that were part of a $20 billion package, saying the money would be better spent on employees and cafe improvements. And he dismissed the company’s top lawyer while pledging to offer better benefits for workers to dissuade them from unionizing.2. Coffee prices remain elevated on supply and demandSupply and demand was mixed with stronger demand from China and higher supply from Vietnam. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projected that China's 2022 coffee imports would grow by +5% this year to 4 million bags. Also supportive of higher prices was dry weather in Brazil, with rainfall in the Minas Gerais area, which makes up 30% of Brazil's arabica crop, was only 40% of the historical average.On the bearish side, the Green Coffee Association reported this week that US March green coffee inventories rose +1.0% m/m and +2.5% y/y to 5.82 million bags.With no end in sight to the Ukraine tensions, there are fears that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will add to inflation, curb consumer spending, and reduce coffee consumption as consumers tighten their belts.For Starbucks, that may not mean that coffee house visits are reduced, but that the average spend is reduced.Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are providing a bullish stimulus for prices and pushed arabica coffee up to a 10-1/2 year nearest-futures highs on Feb 10. The International Coffee Organization also cut its global 2020/21 supply estimate to a deficit of -3.13 mln bags from a previous estimate of a +1.2 mln bag surplus.Another headwind would come from a potential structural low in the Brazilian Real. Brazilian production costs, including labor and other expenses, are in the Brazilian real. A falling real weighs on arabica coffee’s price as Brazilian supplies have lower production costs and can fetch more dollars. A rising real has the opposite impact, pushing coffee prices higher.3. Sales in China and Europe Are a Great ConcernA further headwind for the company will come from the strict lockdowns in China, which are being enforced due to Coronavirus. The US and China make up 61% of the company's global footprint and Starbucks also wanted to start a more aggressive expansion in China. In Q1 results, China's comparable store sales were down 14% and it is hard to see that getting better with the prolonged lockdowns.The real problem will come from forward guidance and the following quarters. Operations have been suspended in Russia, while Chinese consumers are locked down in big cities like Shanghai. At home and in Europe, consumers are being squeezed by soaring inflation that could see them reduce their average spending.Analyst OpinionsBTIG analyst Peter Saleh maintained a “Buy” rating and offered a $110 price target. Saleh adjusted the rating while cutting the 2022 and 2023 earnings estimates to reflect the uncertainty of unionization, the high probability of wage and benefit investment, and the recently announced suspension of share repurchase. But Saleh believes that the risk to traffic is nominal as only 4% of consumers responding to the BTIG survey claim they will not visit anymore if an agreement on unions is not reached. Zacks Investment Research cut it from a hold rating to a sell rating and gave it an $83.00 target price. According to Zacks, “Although shares of Starbucks have underperformed the industry in the past six months, it might take a U-turn as the company is benefiting from store growth, robust digitalization and comps growth. During first-quarter fiscal 2022, global comparable store sales increased 13% year over year, driven by an increase in comparable transactions and average ticket growth. For fiscal 2022, the company anticipates global comparable sales to reach high-single digits. Starbucks expects to open nearly 2,000 net new stores worldwide in fiscal 2022. However, dismal China's performance continues to hurt Starbucks. During the fiscal first quarter, comps in China declined 14% year over year against a 5% growth reported in the prior-year quarter. Strategic investments and cost inflation might impact the company’s earnings in 2022.”MKM Partners analyst Brett Levymaintained a “Buy” rating and offered a $110 price target. Levy adjusted the rating as part of a broader research note on restaurants heading into Q1 earnings. And many of the moving parts facing the group are skewing negatively, including pricing, inflation, and demand-related issues. Plus Levy pointed out that the company is facing choppy international demand picture.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082861382,"gmtCreate":1650550583065,"gmtModify":1676534749870,"author":{"id":"3570404441559159","authorId":"3570404441559159","name":"turby86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6521a21a170a14789e08b8eb558bb28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570404441559159","authorIdStr":"3570404441559159"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20220429 900.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220429 900.0 PUT$</a>bet the wrong direction 🤣","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20220429 900.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20220429 900.0 PUT$</a>bet the wrong direction 🤣","text":"$TSLA 20220429 900.0 PUT$bet the wrong direction 🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082861382","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089320380,"gmtCreate":1649953445985,"gmtModify":1676534615342,"author":{"id":"3570404441559159","authorId":"3570404441559159","name":"turby86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6521a21a170a14789e08b8eb558bb28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570404441559159","authorIdStr":"3570404441559159"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TWTR 20220414 45.0 PUT\">$TWTR 20220414 45.0 PUT$</a>dumppp","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TWTR 20220414 45.0 PUT\">$TWTR 20220414 45.0 PUT$</a>dumppp","text":"$TWTR 20220414 45.0 PUT$dumppp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089320380","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885868412,"gmtCreate":1631777411036,"gmtModify":1676530632885,"author":{"id":"3570404441559159","authorId":"3570404441559159","name":"turby86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6521a21a170a14789e08b8eb558bb28","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570404441559159","authorIdStr":"3570404441559159"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOP\">$XOP 20220318 87.0 CALL(XOP)$</a>Making an oil play? 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