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- TealloTeallo
  ·2021-02-16
  Okay cool
  Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is
  It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk
  Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is
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- TealloTeallo
  ·2021-02-12
  Thanks
  Here's the formula for spotting genuinely undervalued companies, claims this investment house
  The growth stock vs. value stock dichotomy doesn't make sense, says ValuAnalysis. For most of 2020, investors poured money into names like online retailer Amazon $$, electric-car maker Tesla $$, and e-commerce platform Shopify -- "growth" stocks that kept indexes afloat in a turbulent year that hammered share prices across the board.But when news broke in early November 2020 that drug company Pfizer $$ and its partner BioNTech $$ had developed an effective vaccine against COVID-19, something pro
  Here's the formula for spotting genuinely undervalued companies, claims this investment house
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- TealloTeallo
  ·2021-02-12
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cool","listText":"Okay cool","text":"Okay cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382628544","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185344045?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 09:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WDC":"西部数据",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","STX":"希捷科技"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386957103,"gmtCreate":1613130032502,"gmtModify":1704878689316,"author":{"id":"3572234398455043","authorId":"3572234398455043","name":"Teallo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30cc7a4975e4e809f26a7bcaab128228","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572234398455043","authorIdStr":"3572234398455043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386957103","repostId":"2110026963","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2110026963","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1613109422,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2110026963?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-12 13:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's the formula for spotting genuinely undervalued companies, claims this investment house","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110026963","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The growth stock vs. value stock dichotomy doesn't make sense, says ValuAnalysis. For most of 2020, investors poured money into names like online retailer Amazon $$, electric-car maker Tesla $$, and e-commerce platform Shopify -- \"growth\" stocks that kept indexes afloat in a turbulent year that hammered share prices across the board.But when news broke in early November 2020 that drug company Pfizer $$ and its partner BioNTech $$ had developed an effective vaccine against COVID-19, something pro","content":"<p>MW Here's the formula for spotting genuinely undervalued companies, claims this investment house</p>\n<p>The growth stock vs. value stock dichotomy doesn't make sense, says ValuAnalysis</p>\n<p>For most of 2020, investors poured money into names like online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, and e-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP.T)-- \"growth\" stocks that kept indexes afloat in a turbulent year that hammered share prices across the board.</p>\n<p>But when news broke in early November 2020 that drug company Pfizer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$(PFE)$</a> and its partner BioNTech <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">$(BNTX)$</a> had developed an effective vaccine against COVID-19, something profound happened in financial markets.</p>\n<p>Investors rotated out of these investments in favor of \"value\" stocks hammered by the COVID-19 pandemic, like airlines.</p>\n<p>This rotation was based on an essential concept in investing: There are some stocks that are clearly undervalued based on standard metrics.</p>\n<p>And it is completely flawed, according to research from ValuAnalysis, a London-based fund manager and equity investment boutique, which specializes in valuation.</p>\n<p>The apparent difference between growth stocks and value stocks is that the former is overvalued based on fundamental metrics while the latter is undervalued.</p>\n<p>\"Everyone knows that this thing doesn't make any sense because growth is not the opposite of value,\" Pascal Costantini, who led the research at ValuAnalysis, tells MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"It should be high-growth and low-growth, and I can imagine that, somewhere in an office, some guy said 'well this is not catchy enough, so how about growth and value?'\"</p>\n<p>Analysts and investors use metrics like the price-to-earnings ratio, or price multiple, to value stocks. ValuAnalysis uses price as a multiple of normalized net free cash flow as its benchmark, and identifies the imaginary dividing line between value and growth stocks at 35x, which is the market median.</p>\n<p>The value vs. growth divide would suggest that a company trading at a 17x earnings multiple is undervalued. In reality, ValuAnalysis says it is likely a company that won't grow.</p>\n<p>In reality, a stock's value is based on the company's ability to grow free cash flow in an environment where the cost of capital is 5% to 6%. So if a company isn't outpacing that by improving revenue and margins, the multiple won't increase and the stock price is unlikely to rise.</p>\n<p>Stocks that are actually undervalued will trade between 25x and 35x free cash flow, Costantini says, outpacing the cost of capital but not breaking past the market median.</p>\n<p>To have potential, a company's accumulation of assets or revenue growth must outpace increases in global gross domestic product, and ideally show signs of accelerating. There must also be an increase in operational leverage through revenue or margins. A decrease in the risk premium, such as through advances in controlling carbon emissions, helps.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's the formula for spotting genuinely undervalued companies, claims this investment house</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's the formula for spotting genuinely undervalued companies, claims this investment house\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-12 13:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>MW Here's the formula for spotting genuinely undervalued companies, claims this investment house</p>\n<p>The growth stock vs. value stock dichotomy doesn't make sense, says ValuAnalysis</p>\n<p>For most of 2020, investors poured money into names like online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, and e-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP.T)-- \"growth\" stocks that kept indexes afloat in a turbulent year that hammered share prices across the board.</p>\n<p>But when news broke in early November 2020 that drug company Pfizer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$(PFE)$</a> and its partner BioNTech <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">$(BNTX)$</a> had developed an effective vaccine against COVID-19, something profound happened in financial markets.</p>\n<p>Investors rotated out of these investments in favor of \"value\" stocks hammered by the COVID-19 pandemic, like airlines.</p>\n<p>This rotation was based on an essential concept in investing: There are some stocks that are clearly undervalued based on standard metrics.</p>\n<p>And it is completely flawed, according to research from ValuAnalysis, a London-based fund manager and equity investment boutique, which specializes in valuation.</p>\n<p>The apparent difference between growth stocks and value stocks is that the former is overvalued based on fundamental metrics while the latter is undervalued.</p>\n<p>\"Everyone knows that this thing doesn't make any sense because growth is not the opposite of value,\" Pascal Costantini, who led the research at ValuAnalysis, tells MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"It should be high-growth and low-growth, and I can imagine that, somewhere in an office, some guy said 'well this is not catchy enough, so how about growth and value?'\"</p>\n<p>Analysts and investors use metrics like the price-to-earnings ratio, or price multiple, to value stocks. ValuAnalysis uses price as a multiple of normalized net free cash flow as its benchmark, and identifies the imaginary dividing line between value and growth stocks at 35x, which is the market median.</p>\n<p>The value vs. growth divide would suggest that a company trading at a 17x earnings multiple is undervalued. In reality, ValuAnalysis says it is likely a company that won't grow.</p>\n<p>In reality, a stock's value is based on the company's ability to grow free cash flow in an environment where the cost of capital is 5% to 6%. So if a company isn't outpacing that by improving revenue and margins, the multiple won't increase and the stock price is unlikely to rise.</p>\n<p>Stocks that are actually undervalued will trade between 25x and 35x free cash flow, Costantini says, outpacing the cost of capital but not breaking past the market median.</p>\n<p>To have potential, a company's accumulation of assets or revenue growth must outpace increases in global gross domestic product, and ideally show signs of accelerating. There must also be an increase in operational leverage through revenue or margins. A decrease in the risk premium, such as through advances in controlling carbon emissions, helps.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","PFE":"辉瑞","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110026963","content_text":"MW Here's the formula for spotting genuinely undervalued companies, claims this investment house\nThe growth stock vs. value stock dichotomy doesn't make sense, says ValuAnalysis\nFor most of 2020, investors poured money into names like online retailer Amazon $(AMZN)$, electric-car maker Tesla $(TSLA)$, and e-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP.T)-- \"growth\" stocks that kept indexes afloat in a turbulent year that hammered share prices across the board.\nBut when news broke in early November 2020 that drug company Pfizer $(PFE)$ and its partner BioNTech $(BNTX)$ had developed an effective vaccine against COVID-19, something profound happened in financial markets.\nInvestors rotated out of these investments in favor of \"value\" stocks hammered by the COVID-19 pandemic, like airlines.\nThis rotation was based on an essential concept in investing: There are some stocks that are clearly undervalued based on standard metrics.\nAnd it is completely flawed, according to research from ValuAnalysis, a London-based fund manager and equity investment boutique, which specializes in valuation.\nThe apparent difference between growth stocks and value stocks is that the former is overvalued based on fundamental metrics while the latter is undervalued.\n\"Everyone knows that this thing doesn't make any sense because growth is not the opposite of value,\" Pascal Costantini, who led the research at ValuAnalysis, tells MarketWatch.\n\"It should be high-growth and low-growth, and I can imagine that, somewhere in an office, some guy said 'well this is not catchy enough, so how about growth and value?'\"\nAnalysts and investors use metrics like the price-to-earnings ratio, or price multiple, to value stocks. ValuAnalysis uses price as a multiple of normalized net free cash flow as its benchmark, and identifies the imaginary dividing line between value and growth stocks at 35x, which is the market median.\nThe value vs. growth divide would suggest that a company trading at a 17x earnings multiple is undervalued. In reality, ValuAnalysis says it is likely a company that won't grow.\nIn reality, a stock's value is based on the company's ability to grow free cash flow in an environment where the cost of capital is 5% to 6%. So if a company isn't outpacing that by improving revenue and margins, the multiple won't increase and the stock price is unlikely to rise.\nStocks that are actually undervalued will trade between 25x and 35x free cash flow, Costantini says, outpacing the cost of capital but not breaking past the market median.\nTo have potential, a company's accumulation of assets or revenue growth must outpace increases in global gross domestic product, and ideally show signs of accelerating. There must also be an increase in operational leverage through revenue or margins. A decrease in the risk premium, such as through advances in controlling carbon emissions, helps.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":56,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386958128,"gmtCreate":1613129524364,"gmtModify":1704878684108,"author":{"id":"3572234398455043","authorId":"3572234398455043","name":"Teallo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30cc7a4975e4e809f26a7bcaab128228","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572234398455043","authorIdStr":"3572234398455043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386958128","repostId":"2110026963","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}