Profile - To The Moon

Bigmoneh

Posts · 13Posts · 13
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-06-08
  $GameStop(GME)$Here we go
  116 Comment
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-04-30
  Likes pls
  Eurozone Slumps Into Double-Dip Recession After Vaccine Delays
  Discover what’s driving the global economy and what it means for policy makers, businesses, investor
  Eurozone Slumps Into Double-Dip Recession After Vaccine Delays
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-04-30
  Gajdhsjak
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-04-30
  $Alibaba(BABA)$???
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-04-30
  Hi
  Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.
  Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stell
  Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-04-23
  Yo pls like this post
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-03-10
  Harlo
  The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby
  The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional
  The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-02-16
  Yo wassup need the coins
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-02-15
  ???
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- BigmonehBigmoneh
  ·2021-02-09
  Gogogo
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>Here we go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>Here we go","text":"$GameStop(GME)$Here we go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180042855","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103203589,"gmtCreate":1619783490841,"gmtModify":1704272295541,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes pls&nbsp;","listText":"Likes pls&nbsp;","text":"Likes pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103203589","repostId":"1118989660","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118989660","pubTimestamp":1619780320,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118989660?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 18:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Eurozone Slumps Into Double-Dip Recession After Vaccine Delays","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118989660","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Discover what’s driving the global economy and what it means for policy makers, businesses, investor","content":"<p><i>Discover what’s driving the global economy and what it means for policy makers, businesses, investors and you with The New Economy Daily.&nbsp;Sign up here</i></p>\n<p>The euro zone tipped into a double-dip recession in the first quarter, highlighting the cost of slow coronavirus vaccinations that have left the economy lagging far behind the U.S.</p>\n<p>The feebleeconomic datashow the importance of accelerating inoculations and getting the bloc’s 800 billion-euro ($968 billion) joint recovery fund under way as soon as possible.</p>\n<p>Virus Fallout</p>\n<p>Some European economies were hampered by lockdowns in first quarter</p>\n<p>Euro-area output shrank 0.6% in the three months through March, after a decline of 0.7% at the end of 2020. Germany, Italy and Spain all contracted, while French growth was clouded by the fact that the government was forced to reimpose virus restrictions this month.</p>\n<p>In contrast, the U.S. economy has expanded for three straight quarters andacceleratedat the start of this year. Vaccinations, job growth and two rounds of federal stimulus payments combined to supercharge household spending, which climbed at the second-fastest pace since the 1960s.</p>\n<p>The euro zone should soon start its own rebound -- European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that the bloc is at an “inflection point” -- but the economy won’t reach its pre-pandemic size until mid-2022, a full year behind the U.S.</p>\n<p>“If you add together the divergence in terms of the pandemic, vaccinations and fiscal support, the euro area is still a bit stuck while others are clearly exiting the crisis,” said Philippe Ledent, an economist at ING Groep NV. “I don’t want to be particularly negative for the euro area -- there will be a recovery -- but it’s important that the euro zone isn’t always behind.”</p>\n<p>Germany’s economy, the region’s largest, highlights the woes that are afflicting the euro zone. Not only is the country in the midst of a strict lockdown, but the so-far resilient manufacturing sector is being hit by worsening supply bottlenecks. GDP shrank 1.7%, worse than economists forecast.</p>\n<p>France, the second-biggest economy, performed better than expected but has now been forced into imposing a monthlong lockdown. That includes closing schools, nurseries, and non-essential stores, and restricting travel between regions.</p>\n<p>More Than 1.1 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker</p>\n<p>Signs of a nascent upturn were evident in some of Friday’s data. Euro-area unemployment fell in March, and Spanish retail sales surged. Sales also jumped in Switzerland.</p>\n<p>The region is making progress on its recovery fund, with governments submitting spending plans this week for approval by the European Commission. Still, the fund-raising needs to be ratified by all 27 member states, and disbursements won’t start until the summer.</p>\n<p>That’s raising concern in some quarters that the region is moving too slow in rebuilding. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said this week that the EU has “lost too much time” compared to the U.S. and China.</p>\n<p>Other data showed price pressures -- one indicator of demand -- are mixed. April inflation came in at 1.6%, the highest rate in two years, but a measure excluding volatile items such as food and energy fell to 0.8%.</p>\n<p>The ECB has insisted that economic uncertainty, particularly over jobs, will keep underlying inflation subdued for a while. It has ramped up the pace of its bond-buying program to shield the region from higher global borrowing costs that are spilling over from the faster U.S. recovery.</p>\n<p>”We continue to be optimistic,” said Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen, analysts at Nordea. “It is still possible to reach our forecast from January, foreseeing 4.5% growth in 2021 and 4% in 2022. Obviously, not much can go wrong in order to hit those numbers.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eurozone Slumps Into Double-Dip Recession After Vaccine Delays</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEurozone Slumps Into Double-Dip Recession After Vaccine Delays\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 18:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-30/euro-area-seeks-rebound-as-recession-shows-cost-of-vaccine-delay?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Discover what’s driving the global economy and what it means for policy makers, businesses, investors and you with The New Economy Daily. Sign up here\nThe euro zone tipped into a double-dip recession ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-30/euro-area-seeks-rebound-as-recession-shows-cost-of-vaccine-delay?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-30/euro-area-seeks-rebound-as-recession-shows-cost-of-vaccine-delay?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118989660","content_text":"Discover what’s driving the global economy and what it means for policy makers, businesses, investors and you with The New Economy Daily. Sign up here\nThe euro zone tipped into a double-dip recession in the first quarter, highlighting the cost of slow coronavirus vaccinations that have left the economy lagging far behind the U.S.\nThe feebleeconomic datashow the importance of accelerating inoculations and getting the bloc’s 800 billion-euro ($968 billion) joint recovery fund under way as soon as possible.\nVirus Fallout\nSome European economies were hampered by lockdowns in first quarter\nEuro-area output shrank 0.6% in the three months through March, after a decline of 0.7% at the end of 2020. Germany, Italy and Spain all contracted, while French growth was clouded by the fact that the government was forced to reimpose virus restrictions this month.\nIn contrast, the U.S. economy has expanded for three straight quarters andacceleratedat the start of this year. Vaccinations, job growth and two rounds of federal stimulus payments combined to supercharge household spending, which climbed at the second-fastest pace since the 1960s.\nThe euro zone should soon start its own rebound -- European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that the bloc is at an “inflection point” -- but the economy won’t reach its pre-pandemic size until mid-2022, a full year behind the U.S.\n“If you add together the divergence in terms of the pandemic, vaccinations and fiscal support, the euro area is still a bit stuck while others are clearly exiting the crisis,” said Philippe Ledent, an economist at ING Groep NV. “I don’t want to be particularly negative for the euro area -- there will be a recovery -- but it’s important that the euro zone isn’t always behind.”\nGermany’s economy, the region’s largest, highlights the woes that are afflicting the euro zone. Not only is the country in the midst of a strict lockdown, but the so-far resilient manufacturing sector is being hit by worsening supply bottlenecks. GDP shrank 1.7%, worse than economists forecast.\nFrance, the second-biggest economy, performed better than expected but has now been forced into imposing a monthlong lockdown. That includes closing schools, nurseries, and non-essential stores, and restricting travel between regions.\nMore Than 1.1 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker\nSigns of a nascent upturn were evident in some of Friday’s data. Euro-area unemployment fell in March, and Spanish retail sales surged. Sales also jumped in Switzerland.\nThe region is making progress on its recovery fund, with governments submitting spending plans this week for approval by the European Commission. Still, the fund-raising needs to be ratified by all 27 member states, and disbursements won’t start until the summer.\nThat’s raising concern in some quarters that the region is moving too slow in rebuilding. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said this week that the EU has “lost too much time” compared to the U.S. and China.\nOther data showed price pressures -- one indicator of demand -- are mixed. April inflation came in at 1.6%, the highest rate in two years, but a measure excluding volatile items such as food and energy fell to 0.8%.\nThe ECB has insisted that economic uncertainty, particularly over jobs, will keep underlying inflation subdued for a while. It has ramped up the pace of its bond-buying program to shield the region from higher global borrowing costs that are spilling over from the faster U.S. recovery.\n”We continue to be optimistic,” said Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen, analysts at Nordea. “It is still possible to reach our forecast from January, foreseeing 4.5% growth in 2021 and 4% in 2022. Obviously, not much can go wrong in order to hit those numbers.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103200837,"gmtCreate":1619783318629,"gmtModify":1704272292255,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gajdhsjak","listText":"Gajdhsjak","text":"Gajdhsjak","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e84e56bbec11df1dd8d6d62c8a998f0","width":"750","height":"2390"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103200837","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109706838,"gmtCreate":1619716463524,"gmtModify":1704271325363,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>???","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcad74d62880ab5aa00feb0ab8e98550","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109706838","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109442759,"gmtCreate":1619713232071,"gmtModify":1704271300279,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109442759","repostId":"1169827391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169827391","pubTimestamp":1619664680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169827391?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169827391","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stell","content":"<p>Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the role of&nbsp; executive chairman, with Amazon Web Services chief Andy Jassy taking over the top slot.</p>\n<p>The combination of that pending change, along with uncertainty over how the reopening of the economy will affect shopping behavior, has some investors a little uneasy about the stock’s near-term prospects.</p>\n<p>They will get a fresh look at the situation after the close of trading on Thursday, when Amazon (ticker: AMZN) posts its results for the March quarter. Amazon has told investors to expect revenue of $100 billion to $106 billion, with operating income of between $3 billion and $6.5 billion, and about $2 billion in costs related to Covid-19. The Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $104.5 billion, with profits of $9.54 a share.</p>\n<p>The Street also clearly expects the quarter’s results to show continued strength in e-commerce. According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect online-stores revenue of $51.5 billion, up 41% from a year ago, with third-party sales of $21.7 billion, up 50%. Subscription revenues are expected to be $7.3 billion, up 32%, while revenue from physical stores is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 8%. AWS revenues are projected at $13.2 billion, up 29%.</p>\n<p>One open question is what forecasts the company will make for the June quarter as parts of the country begin to return to more normal economic activity. The Street is projecting June quarter revenue of $108.7 billion and profits of $10.81 a share.</p>\n<p>In an earnings preview note, Truist analyst Youssef Squali&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a target of $3,750 for the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at $3,417.43, up 4.9% year to date.</p>\n<p>He expects revenue to come in at the high end of the range Amazon predicted, saying e-commerce demand has remained strong both in the U.S. and internationally, given that the pandemic has been slow to subside. Conversations with people in the industry and strong earning disclosed last week by Snap bode well for Amazon’s ad business, which is lumped into a category called “other,” he wrote. He also thinks the market continues to underestimate the long-term growth potential of the dominance of the company’s two key businesses—e-commerce and AWS—as well as the company’s “emerging leadership in online advertising.”</p>\n<p>Stifel analyst Scott Devitt&nbsp;is similarly bullish, repeating a Buy rating and $4,000 target price. He sees 40% top-line growth, a little ahead of the Street consensus. “The focus on the report will largely center on the outlook as Amazon laps the difficult prior year compares from the onset of the pandemic,” he wrote in a research note.</p>\n<p>“Growth in a post-Covid environment remains largely uncertain for Amazon and across the e-commerce landscape,” Devitt said. “Our [June quarter] revenue estimates are ahead of consensus as we see tailwinds stemming from strong growth in new Prime members and diversification across geographies and categories supporting the retail business as economies recover.” He also said AWS and the ad business are well positioned for a recovery.</p>\n<p>Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter likewise maintained an Outperform rating and $4,000 target. He thinks the company will post more revenue and operating income than it had forecast, an outperformance resulting from market-share gains in e-commerce.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>“We believe that a more stable economy, continued imposition of shelter-in-place orders in many of Amazon’s markets, continued expansion into the very large grocery segment, and outstanding execution likely drove strong results in Q1,” he said. “In addition, Amazon Pharmacy (launched February 2) represents a U.S. [addressable market] of around $600 billion, so any market share gains could provide further upside.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 10:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-is-likely-to-post-blowout-profits-the-question-is-what-follows-51619556363?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-is-likely-to-post-blowout-profits-the-question-is-what-follows-51619556363?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-is-likely-to-post-blowout-profits-the-question-is-what-follows-51619556363?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169827391","content_text":"Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the role of  executive chairman, with Amazon Web Services chief Andy Jassy taking over the top slot.\nThe combination of that pending change, along with uncertainty over how the reopening of the economy will affect shopping behavior, has some investors a little uneasy about the stock’s near-term prospects.\nThey will get a fresh look at the situation after the close of trading on Thursday, when Amazon (ticker: AMZN) posts its results for the March quarter. Amazon has told investors to expect revenue of $100 billion to $106 billion, with operating income of between $3 billion and $6.5 billion, and about $2 billion in costs related to Covid-19. The Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $104.5 billion, with profits of $9.54 a share.\nThe Street also clearly expects the quarter’s results to show continued strength in e-commerce. According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect online-stores revenue of $51.5 billion, up 41% from a year ago, with third-party sales of $21.7 billion, up 50%. Subscription revenues are expected to be $7.3 billion, up 32%, while revenue from physical stores is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 8%. AWS revenues are projected at $13.2 billion, up 29%.\nOne open question is what forecasts the company will make for the June quarter as parts of the country begin to return to more normal economic activity. The Street is projecting June quarter revenue of $108.7 billion and profits of $10.81 a share.\nIn an earnings preview note, Truist analyst Youssef Squali reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a target of $3,750 for the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at $3,417.43, up 4.9% year to date.\nHe expects revenue to come in at the high end of the range Amazon predicted, saying e-commerce demand has remained strong both in the U.S. and internationally, given that the pandemic has been slow to subside. Conversations with people in the industry and strong earning disclosed last week by Snap bode well for Amazon’s ad business, which is lumped into a category called “other,” he wrote. He also thinks the market continues to underestimate the long-term growth potential of the dominance of the company’s two key businesses—e-commerce and AWS—as well as the company’s “emerging leadership in online advertising.”\nStifel analyst Scott Devitt is similarly bullish, repeating a Buy rating and $4,000 target price. He sees 40% top-line growth, a little ahead of the Street consensus. “The focus on the report will largely center on the outlook as Amazon laps the difficult prior year compares from the onset of the pandemic,” he wrote in a research note.\n“Growth in a post-Covid environment remains largely uncertain for Amazon and across the e-commerce landscape,” Devitt said. “Our [June quarter] revenue estimates are ahead of consensus as we see tailwinds stemming from strong growth in new Prime members and diversification across geographies and categories supporting the retail business as economies recover.” He also said AWS and the ad business are well positioned for a recovery.\nWedbush analyst Michael Pachter likewise maintained an Outperform rating and $4,000 target. He thinks the company will post more revenue and operating income than it had forecast, an outperformance resulting from market-share gains in e-commerce. \n“We believe that a more stable economy, continued imposition of shelter-in-place orders in many of Amazon’s markets, continued expansion into the very large grocery segment, and outstanding execution likely drove strong results in Q1,” he said. “In addition, Amazon Pharmacy (launched February 2) represents a U.S. [addressable market] of around $600 billion, so any market share gains could provide further upside.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372931998,"gmtCreate":1619166487114,"gmtModify":1704720658117,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yo pls like this post","listText":"Yo pls like this post","text":"Yo pls like this post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372931998","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323475571,"gmtCreate":1615371495093,"gmtModify":1704781798567,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Harlo","listText":"Harlo","text":"Harlo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323475571","repostId":"1162030727","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162030727","pubTimestamp":1615371076,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162030727?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 18:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162030727","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional ","content":"<p>The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time is different and current valuations are justified. We find that either gold or equities are currently mispriced, as, a) both arguments would imply that gold should outperform stocks and b) if neither of the scenarios play out, equities are due for a substantial correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f7609bf84bf26bd5d2443fa9a7de86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, equities had staggering rally over the past 12 months. The S&amp;P500 almost doubled in less than a year from a low of 2240 on March 23, 2020 to currently 3860 at the time of writing. In addition, some narrower indices have done even better. Particularly certain technology stocks have relentlessly risen amidst an environment of economic stress.</p><p>This has led to a sharp increase in the equities-to-gold price ratio (see Exhibit 1) even as economic growth has collapsed while the Fed increased its balance sheet at an unprecedented level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a828b10b92375dfb19347e6c59314c83\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This increase in the equities-to-gold-ratio is not caused by gold performing poorly as prices for the yellow metal are up12% since the end of 2019. It’s simply a consequence of equities’ doing really well. But equity valuations according to traditional metrics have now approached extreme levels. For example, the total market cap to GDP (Buffet indicator) is currently at 193% (see exhibit 2), the highest on record, 50% above the peak during the dot.com bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64899d2c53b18cc97b2dce33717c9af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moreover, global equities to GDP are also extremely high, currently at &gt;120% (see exhibit 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef426becc1777204ae2f18e3c290e2e6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, a measure developed by Robert Schiller, is also flashing red with the second highest reading in history going back to the late 1900s (see exhibit 4).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc92db52653acc17b59de9311c17bf0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Price to sales ratios also hit a record high (see Exhibit 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a119fa360112d18ced5d8efff557ebea\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are other indicators that suggest that equity prices have detached from underlying fundamentals. The put / call ratio on the CBOE has now reached the levels of the dot.com bubble (see Exhibit 6).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462aa5d4dee82e50792b2a4f6bbd70f8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We also saw an unprecedented inflow of new market participants. People with very little or no market exp4erience opened online brokerage accounts at an unprecedented speed during the global lockdowns. More than 10 million Americans opened a trading account in 2020 according to the Wall Street Journal.&nbsp; According to CNBC, ten percent of Americans bought a stock for the first time in the past 12 months, and a staggering twenty-two percent of Gen Z (currently 6-24 years old) opened a stock market account in the last 12 months.</p><p>And stocks are not the only assets that are skyrocketing. Cryptocurrencies, which since 2017 had temporarily lost their luster, are rallying at breakneck pace since the outbreak of the pandemic (see exhibit 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a4f01c4a7404c0a7b196d39dac0a78\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judged on only those metrics, stock markets are clearly in a bubble. But is this time maybe really different as the bulls argue? In our view, there are only two ways that current stock prices could indeed be justified;</p><blockquote><b>1. The great Gatsby:</b>The pandemic, as negative as it was for economic activity near term, will be followed by a period of unprecedented economic expansion. Hence, GDP will rapidly rise and close the gap to equity prices. <b>2. The great inflation:</b>Stocks simply price in future inflation that eventually will come on the back of decades of ultra-low rates and central bank balance sheet expansion</blockquote><p>We will take a close look at the validity of those scenarios below. As we will show, these scenarios would require that we enter a multi-year period of extreme economic growth or inflation or a mix of both.&nbsp; However, we will show that gold should outperform stocks in either scenario. And if neither scenario comes true, then stock markets are due for a substantial correction. In that scenario, we would expect central banks to eventually intervene, which should ultimately also benefit gold. Hence, the fact that stocks have vastly outperformed gold over the past months is somewhat of a conundrum. But we are confident that this will reverse going forward.</p><p><b>Scenario one: The great Gatsby</b></p><p>Proponents of the great Gatsby scenario argue that, once the COVID19 pandemic is behind us as enough people are vaccinated and normality returns, economic activity will explode. The argumentation goes that there is a lot of pent-up demand as people were forced to save during the lockdowns and are eager to consume. This demand will be further fueled by stimulus checks (potentially in perpetuity, UBI). At the same time, governments around the world are rolling out huge green infrastructure programs, partially to combat climate change and partially to jump-start the economy.</p><p>While some of these deliberations have merit, there are a few important caveats. In our view, it is extremely unlikely for the economy to simply pick up where we left even if the current measures intended to contain the pandemic are completely removed. Many small businesses have closed forever or are about to close in the near term. The surviving businesses are aggressively cutting costs by a) laying off staff and b) trimming production. The former will impact on consumer demand going forward, the latter will impact on the businesses that are further up in the production chain. While there may be pent-up consumer demand from those who still have a job and saved a lot of money during lockdowns, there are also likely to be a lot of pent-up bankruptcies as many businesses have simply survived so far due to government intervention. Eventually many of those businesses will close. This is especially true in many European economies where governments de facto paid companies not to fire people.</p><p>The problem is compounded by the fact that the economy was already stuttering long before Coronavirus became a household name. The Fed had to aggressively reverse its hiking cycle already by 3Q2019 as markets started to turn sour. We believe that we are close to or already in a recession by late 2019. Hence, a simple return to the pre-COVID economy would mean back to a “normal” recession. Thus, the drivers for this apparent future multi-year super growth cycle have to be strong enough to offset these bearish factors as well.</p><p>Then there is the magnitude by how much the economy would have to expand to justify these kind of equity valuations. If you take a simple metric like market cap to GDP, then GDP would have to almost double from current levels to be in line with historical averages. That implies a nominal GDP of $40tn, or 86% above the levels before COVID (average 2019). Granted that market cap to GDP was already inflated to around 1.2 on average in the ten years prior to the pandemic due to ultra-low interest rates, a return to that average would still require nominal GDP to rise to $35tn or 63% from pre-COVID levels.</p><p>Even with a staggering 5% annual GDP growth and 2% inflation, it would still take more than seven years to get there. Are stocks really pricing in the year 2028 with 0% discount rate? And if so, what would be the fundamental driver to push stocks even higher from here? &nbsp;And is there even historic precedent for these kind of growth numbers? In the post WWII period, there have been only two instances where economic expansion was that high for a prolonged period (see Exhibit 8).</p><p>After WWII ended, the US saw a few years of moderate growth as government spending plummeted, followed by very high growth rates at around 6.9% between 1949 and 1953. This was possible as the US was one of the very few countries where none of the infrastructure had been destroyed and the rest of the world had to be rebuilt. However mathematically, even a repetition of the 1949-53 growth period over the coming years would not be enough to justify current stock prices as it lasted for “only” four years before the US fell into another recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e3916e88c1ee473c5ea235b229f969\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From 1958-1969, the US economy was able to grow close to 5% with a brief monetary recession in 1960. In our view, this 1960s growth period is the only one that reflects the magnitude and length needed to get US GDP back in line with current equity prices. However, the economic environment of the 1960s looked very different from where we are now. More specifically, the US exited WWII with record debt to GPD of over 100%. However, it then immediately cut spending (which resulted in the slower growth rates in the immediate years after WWII) and reduced debt. Inflation also picked up, which, to some extent, helped reducing debt even further[1]. By 1959, the US government had reduced its debt held by the public to 44%, and it dropped to 27% by the end of the 60s (see exhibit 9).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee79afe5f74fa39abc86b197930c486\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Additionally, 10-year treasury rates average at around 5% during this entire growth period. This is a stark contrast to the 1.5% we are seeing now (which already seem to rattle markets). Furthermore, the FED has no room to the downside, as Fed funds rates are already at zero percent. Hence, the only monetary stimulus that is left is via continued and even more extreme QE. However, as we have shown many times before (see&nbsp;Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The energy side of the equation,&nbsp;<i>28 May 2018</i>), QE has always a huge and direct effect on gold prices, and gold is currently not pricing any of that in. Instead, the equity and gold markets seem to be pricing in economic expansion that is driven by anything but more monetary stimulus.</p><p>Another theme of the great Gatsby scenario is that governments will unleash massive transformation towards a greener future. This will lead to huge infrastructure investments in energy, transportation and commodity space, create jobs and unlock economic growth. While we believe that this is likely to be true, what the market seems to ignore is that this can only be financed with more government debt. Central banks will ultimately have to buy that debt, which has the same effect as QE as it leads to a growing balance sheet. And as we have outlined before, higher QE leads to higher gold prices. So again, if markets are pricing in economic expansion on the back of a “green new deal”, they seem to wrongly assume that this can be done without an effect on gold price.</p><p>Lastly, there is the idea that the COVID relief checks will continue indefinitely, de facto introducing a sort of Universal Basic Income (UBI). This would have an effect on consumer spending and, thus, corporate revenues. However, currently the US is running the largest deficit in history. If UBI becomes a reality, this would also have to be entirely financed via debt. As mentioned before, markets are not pricing this in, otherwise we would see an effect on gold.</p><p><b>Thus, the equity-gold conundrum doesn’t disappear in the great Gatsby scenario. In fact, we think that if we see strong economic growth over the coming years, it will entirely be debt financed and as a consequence gold should outperform stocks, not the other way around.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 18:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-gold-price-conundrum-part-1-great-batsby?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohege%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-gold-price-conundrum-part-1-great-batsby?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohege%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-gold-price-conundrum-part-1-great-batsby?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohege%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162030727","content_text":"The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time is different and current valuations are justified. We find that either gold or equities are currently mispriced, as, a) both arguments would imply that gold should outperform stocks and b) if neither of the scenarios play out, equities are due for a substantial correction.Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, equities had staggering rally over the past 12 months. The S&P500 almost doubled in less than a year from a low of 2240 on March 23, 2020 to currently 3860 at the time of writing. In addition, some narrower indices have done even better. Particularly certain technology stocks have relentlessly risen amidst an environment of economic stress.This has led to a sharp increase in the equities-to-gold price ratio (see Exhibit 1) even as economic growth has collapsed while the Fed increased its balance sheet at an unprecedented level.This increase in the equities-to-gold-ratio is not caused by gold performing poorly as prices for the yellow metal are up12% since the end of 2019. It’s simply a consequence of equities’ doing really well. But equity valuations according to traditional metrics have now approached extreme levels. For example, the total market cap to GDP (Buffet indicator) is currently at 193% (see exhibit 2), the highest on record, 50% above the peak during the dot.com bubble.Moreover, global equities to GDP are also extremely high, currently at >120% (see exhibit 3).The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, a measure developed by Robert Schiller, is also flashing red with the second highest reading in history going back to the late 1900s (see exhibit 4).Price to sales ratios also hit a record high (see Exhibit 5).There are other indicators that suggest that equity prices have detached from underlying fundamentals. The put / call ratio on the CBOE has now reached the levels of the dot.com bubble (see Exhibit 6).We also saw an unprecedented inflow of new market participants. People with very little or no market exp4erience opened online brokerage accounts at an unprecedented speed during the global lockdowns. More than 10 million Americans opened a trading account in 2020 according to the Wall Street Journal.  According to CNBC, ten percent of Americans bought a stock for the first time in the past 12 months, and a staggering twenty-two percent of Gen Z (currently 6-24 years old) opened a stock market account in the last 12 months.And stocks are not the only assets that are skyrocketing. Cryptocurrencies, which since 2017 had temporarily lost their luster, are rallying at breakneck pace since the outbreak of the pandemic (see exhibit 7).Judged on only those metrics, stock markets are clearly in a bubble. But is this time maybe really different as the bulls argue? In our view, there are only two ways that current stock prices could indeed be justified;1. The great Gatsby:The pandemic, as negative as it was for economic activity near term, will be followed by a period of unprecedented economic expansion. Hence, GDP will rapidly rise and close the gap to equity prices. 2. The great inflation:Stocks simply price in future inflation that eventually will come on the back of decades of ultra-low rates and central bank balance sheet expansionWe will take a close look at the validity of those scenarios below. As we will show, these scenarios would require that we enter a multi-year period of extreme economic growth or inflation or a mix of both.  However, we will show that gold should outperform stocks in either scenario. And if neither scenario comes true, then stock markets are due for a substantial correction. In that scenario, we would expect central banks to eventually intervene, which should ultimately also benefit gold. Hence, the fact that stocks have vastly outperformed gold over the past months is somewhat of a conundrum. But we are confident that this will reverse going forward.Scenario one: The great GatsbyProponents of the great Gatsby scenario argue that, once the COVID19 pandemic is behind us as enough people are vaccinated and normality returns, economic activity will explode. The argumentation goes that there is a lot of pent-up demand as people were forced to save during the lockdowns and are eager to consume. This demand will be further fueled by stimulus checks (potentially in perpetuity, UBI). At the same time, governments around the world are rolling out huge green infrastructure programs, partially to combat climate change and partially to jump-start the economy.While some of these deliberations have merit, there are a few important caveats. In our view, it is extremely unlikely for the economy to simply pick up where we left even if the current measures intended to contain the pandemic are completely removed. Many small businesses have closed forever or are about to close in the near term. The surviving businesses are aggressively cutting costs by a) laying off staff and b) trimming production. The former will impact on consumer demand going forward, the latter will impact on the businesses that are further up in the production chain. While there may be pent-up consumer demand from those who still have a job and saved a lot of money during lockdowns, there are also likely to be a lot of pent-up bankruptcies as many businesses have simply survived so far due to government intervention. Eventually many of those businesses will close. This is especially true in many European economies where governments de facto paid companies not to fire people.The problem is compounded by the fact that the economy was already stuttering long before Coronavirus became a household name. The Fed had to aggressively reverse its hiking cycle already by 3Q2019 as markets started to turn sour. We believe that we are close to or already in a recession by late 2019. Hence, a simple return to the pre-COVID economy would mean back to a “normal” recession. Thus, the drivers for this apparent future multi-year super growth cycle have to be strong enough to offset these bearish factors as well.Then there is the magnitude by how much the economy would have to expand to justify these kind of equity valuations. If you take a simple metric like market cap to GDP, then GDP would have to almost double from current levels to be in line with historical averages. That implies a nominal GDP of $40tn, or 86% above the levels before COVID (average 2019). Granted that market cap to GDP was already inflated to around 1.2 on average in the ten years prior to the pandemic due to ultra-low interest rates, a return to that average would still require nominal GDP to rise to $35tn or 63% from pre-COVID levels.Even with a staggering 5% annual GDP growth and 2% inflation, it would still take more than seven years to get there. Are stocks really pricing in the year 2028 with 0% discount rate? And if so, what would be the fundamental driver to push stocks even higher from here?  And is there even historic precedent for these kind of growth numbers? In the post WWII period, there have been only two instances where economic expansion was that high for a prolonged period (see Exhibit 8).After WWII ended, the US saw a few years of moderate growth as government spending plummeted, followed by very high growth rates at around 6.9% between 1949 and 1953. This was possible as the US was one of the very few countries where none of the infrastructure had been destroyed and the rest of the world had to be rebuilt. However mathematically, even a repetition of the 1949-53 growth period over the coming years would not be enough to justify current stock prices as it lasted for “only” four years before the US fell into another recession.From 1958-1969, the US economy was able to grow close to 5% with a brief monetary recession in 1960. In our view, this 1960s growth period is the only one that reflects the magnitude and length needed to get US GDP back in line with current equity prices. However, the economic environment of the 1960s looked very different from where we are now. More specifically, the US exited WWII with record debt to GPD of over 100%. However, it then immediately cut spending (which resulted in the slower growth rates in the immediate years after WWII) and reduced debt. Inflation also picked up, which, to some extent, helped reducing debt even further[1]. By 1959, the US government had reduced its debt held by the public to 44%, and it dropped to 27% by the end of the 60s (see exhibit 9).Additionally, 10-year treasury rates average at around 5% during this entire growth period. This is a stark contrast to the 1.5% we are seeing now (which already seem to rattle markets). Furthermore, the FED has no room to the downside, as Fed funds rates are already at zero percent. Hence, the only monetary stimulus that is left is via continued and even more extreme QE. However, as we have shown many times before (see Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The energy side of the equation, 28 May 2018), QE has always a huge and direct effect on gold prices, and gold is currently not pricing any of that in. Instead, the equity and gold markets seem to be pricing in economic expansion that is driven by anything but more monetary stimulus.Another theme of the great Gatsby scenario is that governments will unleash massive transformation towards a greener future. This will lead to huge infrastructure investments in energy, transportation and commodity space, create jobs and unlock economic growth. While we believe that this is likely to be true, what the market seems to ignore is that this can only be financed with more government debt. Central banks will ultimately have to buy that debt, which has the same effect as QE as it leads to a growing balance sheet. And as we have outlined before, higher QE leads to higher gold prices. So again, if markets are pricing in economic expansion on the back of a “green new deal”, they seem to wrongly assume that this can be done without an effect on gold price.Lastly, there is the idea that the COVID relief checks will continue indefinitely, de facto introducing a sort of Universal Basic Income (UBI). This would have an effect on consumer spending and, thus, corporate revenues. However, currently the US is running the largest deficit in history. If UBI becomes a reality, this would also have to be entirely financed via debt. As mentioned before, markets are not pricing this in, otherwise we would see an effect on gold.Thus, the equity-gold conundrum doesn’t disappear in the great Gatsby scenario. In fact, we think that if we see strong economic growth over the coming years, it will entirely be debt financed and as a consequence gold should outperform stocks, not the other way around.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382600226,"gmtCreate":1613437558565,"gmtModify":1704880422701,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yo wassup need the coins","listText":"Yo wassup need the coins","text":"Yo wassup need the coins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382600226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382390851,"gmtCreate":1613357993873,"gmtModify":1704880045545,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707e95d11d098f38d8134136ca74dd2a","width":"750","height":"2244"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382390851","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383958910,"gmtCreate":1612832474230,"gmtModify":1704874733722,"author":{"id":"3572262518814318","authorId":"3572262518814318","name":"Bigmoneh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d717c7ad153db1d505536dbe10c91e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572262518814318","idStr":"3572262518814318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c172172e70196133b1724a7ce7fb45b","width":"750","height":"2484"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383958910","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}