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shihlonchen

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- shihlonchenshihlonchen
  ·09-27
  Samsung will be the next Intel.
  Taiwan Semi has kept its top spot thanks to AI. But Samsung is lurking.
  Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) is the undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, thanks to its leading edge capabilities, especially in artificial intelligence. Despite perception, Samsung (O
  Taiwan Semi has kept its top spot thanks to AI. But Samsung is lurking.
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- shihlonchenshihlonchen
  ·07-27
  $台積電(TSM)$ The market is crazy and short-sighted. The moat owned by TSM is a battleground in international regional politics. With such a deep moat, almost all the chips required for the future industrial revolution come from this company. TSM will eventually become a multinational enterprise. In order to avoid regional risks, it will invest and set up factories in all major countries. At present, the major shareholders are almost all capital from Europe, the United States, Japan and Taiwan, and are not just local companies in Taiwan. If Intel is willing to spin off the factory, maybe TSM can jointly establish a US branch with Intel, just like TSM did in Japan, establishing a joint venture with Japanese large compani
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- shihlonchenshihlonchen
  ·07-17
  ridiculous...
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- shihlonchenshihlonchen
  ·01-04
  $台積電(TSM)$ I will be buying TSMC after this bullish correction. It is a key hub for artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and consumer electronics manufacturing.
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- shihlonchenshihlonchen
  ·2022-12-28
  Nvidia has another adventage, it is Nvidia's software platform for AI/computer vision applications. It is hard to evaluate.
  It Is What Is, Underweight Nvidia, Do Not Buy
  Justin SullivanInvestment Thesis Nvidia’s YTD performance is -49.52%. This big dip has not eradicate
  It Is What Is, Underweight Nvidia, Do Not Buy
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- shihlonchenshihlonchen
  ·2022-05-19
  459 based on PE
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- shihlonchenshihlonchen
  ·2022-05-19
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$450
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But Samsung is lurking.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470736510","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) is the undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, thanks to its leading edge capabilities, especially in artificial intelligence.  Despite perception, Samsung (O","content":"<html><body><p>Taiwan Semiconductor (<span>NYSE:TSM</span>) is the undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, thanks to its leading edge capabilities, especially in artificial intelligence. </p> <p>Despite perception, Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) may not be losing out completely.</p> <p>\"Unlike its peers, TSMC got incredibly better at focusing its R&amp;D<span> with such intense efficiency that it was able to pack in more transistors on chips that were getting smaller with each passing year, and TSMC was doing it at a rate that was unmatched by any of its peers,\" Seeking Alpha Analyst </span>Uttam Dey<span> said. \"This allowed TSMC to keep competing on what is called 'the leading edge' or process node technology that many fabs [chip plants] like TSMC’s peers strive to achieve.\"</span></p> <p>Apple (<span>NASDAQ:AAPL</span>) uses TSM's chips to make its processors for iPhones. The iPhone 16 models have a 3-nanometer A18 chip made by TSM. The phones, along with the iPhone 15 line, can utilize Apple's AI tool, Apple Intelligence, with the first features coming next month. </p> <p>TSM is currently in full volume production on the 3nm process, and is set to start mass production on 2nm nodes in 2025. The company is also more advanced than its peers in terms of semiconductor packaging.</p> <p>\"That’s the whole reason why companies that are known for making some of the best computing chips in the world - Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Qualcomm &amp; AMD are all clients of TSMC and account for over half of TSMC's revenue,\" Dey said. It's also why they'll keep securing TSM's manufacturing capacity over the next two to three years, he added.</p> <h2>Samsung revival?</h2> <p>Despite Taiwan Semiconductor's prowess, Samsung is not that far behind, at least in terms of technology.</p> <p>The South Korean technology giant intends to use its latest 3nm chip processing technology to make its next Galaxy line-up of smartphones and smartwatches. Samsung is expected to use a home-grown 3nm Exynos W1000 AP chip for Galaxy S25 smartphone, anticipated early next year.</p> <p>The Galaxy Watch7, unveiled in July, features the Exynos W1000, Samsung's first wearable application processor to use the 3-nm gate-all-around process. Samsung's current Galaxy S24 Ultra's AI features are powered by Qualcomm's (QCOM) Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 processor chipset.</p> <p>\"But it's not like fabs like Samsung &amp; SK Hynix are completely losing out,\" Dey stated. \"These fabs have taken a larger share of the memory market. It just doesn't get that much traction because it's more cyclical commoditized than the overall chip production market.\" </p> <p>In addition, more money is spent on the leading-edge side of production, which is why fabs like TSM and its clients command such high operating margins — \"these companies operate their business in excess of 40% GAAP margins, which is just incredible,\" Dey explained.</p> <p>Nonetheless, Samsung's foundry is behind Taiwan Semiconductor. TSM's market share was 62% in the second quarter of 2024, compared to 13% for Samsung Foundry, according to data from Counterpoint Research.</p> <p>\"I would not say Samsung is well behind,\" said Lucas Ma of Envision Research, Investing Group Leader for Envision Early Retirement. \"However, I am certainly more bullish on TSM. The foundry business is where experience matters a lot.\" </p> <p>By having a larger market share and working with leading clients such as Apple and Nvidia, TSM gets to experience a wider range of manufacturing processes and customer needs and thus is more likely to stay ahead, Ma added.</p> <p>Samsung is not a pure foundry player such as TSM, and its other segments may not see the same margin and growth potential like its foundry division, Ma said, adding potential investors should not like Samsung automatically because of its much lower price-to-earnings ratio.</p> </body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semi has kept its top spot thanks to AI. 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But Samsung is lurking.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-26 20:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4152766-taiwan-semiconductor-leads-the-way-in-chip-making-filed-but-samsung-not-losing-out><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) is the undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, thanks to its leading edge capabilities, especially in artificial intelligence.  Despite perception, Samsung (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4152766-taiwan-semiconductor-leads-the-way-in-chip-making-filed-but-samsung-not-losing-out\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1394745676/image_1394745676.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4515":"5G概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4576":"AR","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","BK4575":"芯片概念","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","SSNLF":"三星电子","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4152766-taiwan-semiconductor-leads-the-way-in-chip-making-filed-but-samsung-not-losing-out","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470736510","content_text":"Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) is the undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, thanks to its leading edge capabilities, especially in artificial intelligence.  Despite perception, Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) may not be losing out completely. \"Unlike its peers, TSMC got incredibly better at focusing its R&D with such intense efficiency that it was able to pack in more transistors on chips that were getting smaller with each passing year, and TSMC was doing it at a rate that was unmatched by any of its peers,\" Seeking Alpha Analyst Uttam Dey said. \"This allowed TSMC to keep competing on what is called 'the leading edge' or process node technology that many fabs [chip plants] like TSMC’s peers strive to achieve.\" Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) uses TSM's chips to make its processors for iPhones. The iPhone 16 models have a 3-nanometer A18 chip made by TSM. The phones, along with the iPhone 15 line, can utilize Apple's AI tool, Apple Intelligence, with the first features coming next month.  TSM is currently in full volume production on the 3nm process, and is set to start mass production on 2nm nodes in 2025. The company is also more advanced than its peers in terms of semiconductor packaging. \"That’s the whole reason why companies that are known for making some of the best computing chips in the world - Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Qualcomm & AMD are all clients of TSMC and account for over half of TSMC's revenue,\" Dey said. It's also why they'll keep securing TSM's manufacturing capacity over the next two to three years, he added. Samsung revival? Despite Taiwan Semiconductor's prowess, Samsung is not that far behind, at least in terms of technology. The South Korean technology giant intends to use its latest 3nm chip processing technology to make its next Galaxy line-up of smartphones and smartwatches. Samsung is expected to use a home-grown 3nm Exynos W1000 AP chip for Galaxy S25 smartphone, anticipated early next year. The Galaxy Watch7, unveiled in July, features the Exynos W1000, Samsung's first wearable application processor to use the 3-nm gate-all-around process. Samsung's current Galaxy S24 Ultra's AI features are powered by Qualcomm's (QCOM) Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 processor chipset. \"But it's not like fabs like Samsung & SK Hynix are completely losing out,\" Dey stated. \"These fabs have taken a larger share of the memory market. It just doesn't get that much traction because it's more cyclical commoditized than the overall chip production market.\"  In addition, more money is spent on the leading-edge side of production, which is why fabs like TSM and its clients command such high operating margins — \"these companies operate their business in excess of 40% GAAP margins, which is just incredible,\" Dey explained. Nonetheless, Samsung's foundry is behind Taiwan Semiconductor. TSM's market share was 62% in the second quarter of 2024, compared to 13% for Samsung Foundry, according to data from Counterpoint Research. \"I would not say Samsung is well behind,\" said Lucas Ma of Envision Research, Investing Group Leader for Envision Early Retirement. \"However, I am certainly more bullish on TSM. The foundry business is where experience matters a lot.\"  By having a larger market share and working with leading clients such as Apple and Nvidia, TSM gets to experience a wider range of manufacturing processes and customer needs and thus is more likely to stay ahead, Ma added. Samsung is not a pure foundry player such as TSM, and its other segments may not see the same margin and growth potential like its foundry division, Ma said, adding potential investors should not like Samsung automatically because of its much lower price-to-earnings ratio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331824525369448,"gmtCreate":1722019556127,"gmtModify":1722325035942,"author":{"id":"3572535866790814","authorId":"3572535866790814","name":"shihlonchen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b7848d7bddfe597ebfe5ce8085d5ae3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572535866790814","authorIdStr":"3572535866790814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$台積電(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> The market is crazy and short-sighted. The moat owned by TSM is a battleground in international regional politics. With such a deep moat, almost all the chips required for the future industrial revolution come from this company. TSM will eventually become a multinational enterprise. In order to avoid regional risks, it will invest and set up factories in all major countries. At present, the major shareholders are almost all capital from Europe, the United States, Japan and Taiwan, and are not just local companies in Taiwan. If Intel is willing to spin off the factory, maybe TSM can jointly establish a US branch with Intel, just like TSM did in Japan, establishing a joint venture with Japanese large compani","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$台積電(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> The market is crazy and short-sighted. The moat owned by TSM is a battleground in international regional politics. With such a deep moat, almost all the chips required for the future industrial revolution come from this company. TSM will eventually become a multinational enterprise. In order to avoid regional risks, it will invest and set up factories in all major countries. At present, the major shareholders are almost all capital from Europe, the United States, Japan and Taiwan, and are not just local companies in Taiwan. If Intel is willing to spin off the factory, maybe TSM can jointly establish a US branch with Intel, just like TSM did in Japan, establishing a joint venture with Japanese large compani","text":"$台積電(TSM)$ The market is crazy and short-sighted. The moat owned by TSM is a battleground in international regional politics. With such a deep moat, almost all the chips required for the future industrial revolution come from this company. TSM will eventually become a multinational enterprise. In order to avoid regional risks, it will invest and set up factories in all major countries. At present, the major shareholders are almost all capital from Europe, the United States, Japan and Taiwan, and are not just local companies in Taiwan. If Intel is willing to spin off the factory, maybe TSM can jointly establish a US branch with Intel, just like TSM did in Japan, establishing a joint venture with Japanese large compani","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331824525369448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000140","authorId":"9000000000000140","name":"happygo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f63b3c9844fec1361496f60171c10016","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000140","authorIdStr":"9000000000000140"},"content":"TSM is in the range of $153-163 only. That means it could drop back to 153 to make the confirmation of the ground.","text":"TSM is in the range of $153-163 only. That means it could drop back to 153 to make the confirmation of the ground.","html":"TSM is in the range of $153-163 only. That means it could drop back to 153 to make the confirmation of the ground."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328425756459272,"gmtCreate":1721220937815,"gmtModify":1721258391299,"author":{"id":"3572535866790814","authorId":"3572535866790814","name":"shihlonchen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b7848d7bddfe597ebfe5ce8085d5ae3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572535866790814","authorIdStr":"3572535866790814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ridiculous...","listText":"ridiculous...","text":"ridiculous...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328425756459272","repostId":"1178322009","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259258639810792,"gmtCreate":1704308041831,"gmtModify":1704308044442,"author":{"id":"3572535866790814","authorId":"3572535866790814","name":"shihlonchen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b7848d7bddfe597ebfe5ce8085d5ae3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572535866790814","authorIdStr":"3572535866790814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$台積電(TSM)$&nbsp;</a>I will be buying TSMC after this bullish correction. It is a key hub for artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and consumer electronics manufacturing.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$台積電(TSM)$&nbsp;</a>I will be buying TSMC after this bullish correction. It is a key hub for artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and consumer electronics manufacturing.","text":"$台積電(TSM)$ I will be buying TSMC after this bullish correction. It is a key hub for artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and consumer electronics manufacturing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259258639810792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924352406,"gmtCreate":1672188189706,"gmtModify":1676538648332,"author":{"id":"3572535866790814","authorId":"3572535866790814","name":"shihlonchen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b7848d7bddfe597ebfe5ce8085d5ae3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572535866790814","authorIdStr":"3572535866790814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nvidia has another adventage, it is Nvidia's&nbsp;software platform for AI/computer vision applications. It is hard to evaluate.&nbsp;","listText":"Nvidia has another adventage, it is Nvidia's&nbsp;software platform for AI/computer vision applications. It is hard to evaluate.&nbsp;","text":"Nvidia has another adventage, it is Nvidia's software platform for AI/computer vision applications. It is hard to evaluate.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924352406","repostId":"2294562092","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2294562092","pubTimestamp":1672171330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2294562092?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-28 04:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It Is What Is, Underweight Nvidia, Do Not Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2294562092","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Justin SullivanInvestment Thesis Nvidia’s YTD performance is -49.52%. This big dip has not eradicate","content":"<html><body><figure><picture> <img height=\"2000px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"3000px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Justin Sullivan</p></figcaption></figure><h2><strong>Investment Thesis</strong></h2> <p>Nvidia’s YTD performance is -49.52%. This big dip has not eradicated the relative overvaluation of NVDA. I endorsed Nvidia before as a buy 23x here at Seeking Alpha up to 2018. My older self now rates<span> NVDA as a sell. I surmised NVDA is still flying too high at 91.88x forward GAAP P/E valuation. Nvidia’s TTM revenue CAGR is now only</span> 17.68%<span>. This is a big drop from its 3-year average 41.8% revenue CAGR. My fearless forecast is that NVDA’s</span> negative<span> price momentum has more </span>downbeat fuel<span>.</span></p> <p>My rule is that a high growth stock needs to produce at least 20% revenue CAGR. Nvidia is no longer a high-growth stock with its TTM 17.68% revenue CAGR. NVDA is underweight at 91.88x forward GAAP P/E. Not even the biggest company in the world, Apple (AAPL) can match the super high forward P/E of Nvidia. Apple’s forward GAAP P/E valuation is only 21.24x. Nvidia has a forward Price/Sales valuation of 13.84x. This is again an anomaly because Apple only has 5.17x forward P/S.</p> <p>The point is that it is a market aberration that Nvidia is being valued far higher than the world’s biggest publicly traded company in the world. I opine this market anomaly will eventually get corrected.</p> <p>The chart below says Nvidia’s Data Center’s revenue is stagnating. Gaming Segment’s revenue dropped big time in Q2 and Q3 FY23. We could blame this on crypto miners reselling their used GPUs. Retail prices of new GPU products were already getting cheaper in February. A flood of used crypto mining GPUs makes it harder for Nvidia to sell new GPUs.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/27/19553521-16721385736151438.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>If you compare the screenshot above to the screenshot below, we are free to speculate that the substantial drop in Gaming segment revenue directly correlates with the big drop in quarterly net income.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/27/19553521-1672140437690097.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha </span></p></figcaption></figure><p>October 2022’s quarterly net income of $680 million is a massive decline from October 2021’s $2.464 billion.</p> <h2>Negative Price Momentum Could Worsen</h2> <p>I opine Nvidia’s valuation could fall further. GPU mining for Ethereum died last September. For the near-term I don’t expect the Gaming segment to contribute more than $3.5 billion/quarter again to Nvidia’s topline. It was GPU crypto mining that was responsible why the Gaming segment was generating so much quarterly sales. Yes, Jon Peddie Research’s Q3 report confirmed that Nvidia has 88% market share in discrete GPUs. This is nothing to celebrate about. NVDA is a sell because the Q3 2022 discrete GPU shipments of 14 million is a big drop by Q3 2022’s 24 million units.</p> <p>Nvidia is the top discrete GPU vendor, it should suffer the most from this big decline in quarterly shipments. It should also worry Nvidia’s management to see Intel (INTC) having 4% in Q3 discrete GPU shipments. Intel only launched its desktop PC Arc GPUs in China last June.</p> <p>The worrisome future scenario is that Intel has 86% market share in desktop x86 processors. Intel could use its contra-revenue tactic to encourage its PC OEM partners to bundle discrete Intel Arc 7 desktop GPUs in their future Windows 11/ Windows 12 computers. The Arc 770 is competitive against the gaming benchmark scores of Nvidia’s GeForce 3060 XT Limited Edition.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/27/19553521-16721385793387926.jpeg\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>PCworld.com and Thiago Trevisan</span></p></figcaption></figure> <p>The technical/emotional indicators are congruent with my bearish outlook for Nvidia. NVDA’s RSI dipped below 50 again in the week before Christmas Day. NVDA RSI is now only 42.51, below the neutral level of 50. RSI is saying investors and traders are again bearish on NVDA. Recent trades also triggered a short-term bearish signal called Stochastic Oversold Buried. It means NVDA’s fast stochastic has been below 20 and has been so for the past five trading days.</p> <p>Nvidia’s Average Directional Index or ADX trend is also bearish. The downward or minusDI colored red line is above the plusDI. The downward trend prevails.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/27/19553521-16721385746745427.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>aiolux.com</span></p></figcaption></figure> <p>The other reason why I cannot rate NVDA as a buy or hold is its stingy dividend payments. Nvidia is very profitable. Management could use some of that $13 billion in total cash to improve that $0.16 dividend annual payment. The super-optimism of other NVDA shareholders deserves to be better rewarded. Nvidia management should learn from Apple’s forward annual dividend payment of $0.67. My takeaway is that it is not smart to do more of that$15 billion share buyback when NVDA is trading at 91.88x GAAP forward P/E. Increasing the dividend payments would be a better idea in my opinion.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/27/19553521-16721385756577.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha Premium</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>It is another letdown that Nvidia surrendered and failed to buy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARMH\">ARM Holdings</a>. That failed attempt cost Nvidia $1.25 billion in unrecoverable pre-payment to SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY). That $1.25 billion could have been spent instead on increasing dividend payments this year. It could also have been used to pare down Nvidia’s total debt of $11.9 billion.</p> <h2>Why Nvidia Has More Downside Risks</h2> <p>The fabless hardware-centric business of Nvidia should not receive a 91.88x forward P/E valuation. The net income margin of this company is now only 20.85%. This is big drop from its 5-year average net margin of 30.08%. Nvidia’s usual manufacturing partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or TSMC (TSM) has a much higher net income margin of 42.51%. TSM’s GAAP forward P/E is only 11.78x. Nvidia’s future prosperity is tied to the manufacturing process of TSMC. The political tension between China and Taiwan is also a dark cloud over Nvidia.</p> <p>The rumor last April was that Nvidia made TSMC its sole GPU manufacturing partner. NVDA has become overly reliant on TSMC.<span> </span>The China threat has forced TSMC to commit $28 billion more to build factories in Arizona. Unfortunately, the first $12 billion TSMC factory being built in Arizona will only start 5-nanometer production in 2024. Nvidia loyalists could only pray that Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) Foundry could fix its factory yield issues.</p> <p>Nvidia is a fabless semiconductor firm that cannot rely one just one foundry partner. TSMC has an extensive list of foundry customers. I opine Nvidia is not going to get a preferential treatment. TSMC’s biggest customer is Apple.</p> <p><em><strong>Leading customers of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in 2021, based on revenue share</strong></em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/27/19553521-1672138576170569.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Statista.com Premium</span></p></figcaption></figure> <p>The reduced profitability of Nvidia could probably worsen. The $3.8 billion/quarter Data Center segment is doing well against Advanced Micro Devices’ (AMD) Instinct MI200 Series of GPU Accelerators. Going forward, the Xilinx Alveo data center accelerators and the recently-acquired Pensando infrastructure DPU (Data Processing Unit) could now be bundled with AMD EPYC processors and Instinct data center GPUs. Bundling is an effective way for AMD to disrupt Nvidia’s $3.8 billion/quarter data center business.</p> <p>Intel’s Flex Series data center GPUs is another major headwind for Nvidia. Intel currently has a negative revenue CAGR. It needs the 25% CAGR of the $17.89 billion data center accelerator market. Intel can also bundle its new AI-centric scalable 4th-Gen Xeon processors with its Max Series and Flex GPUs, FPGA accelerator cards, Movidius VPUs, and Habana Gaudi 2. Intel’s multiple hardware products for AI/ML/DL are nicely complemented by the free no-code OpenVino framework. Intel’s oneAPI toolkits are its equalizer to Nvidia’s CUDAtoolkits for AI, machine learning, and deep learning.</p> <p>The extremely high valuation ratios of NVDA are not going to last forever. Intel’s Habana Gaudi 2 can outperform Nvidia’s A100 on MLFPERF ResNet-50 and MLPERF BERT training time benchmark metrics. The old Intel Ponte Vecchio (now known as Intel Max GPU series) could also outperform the A100. It will take some time, but companies and individual developers will eventually learn oneAPI and OpenVino. When this time comes, they would be using Intel MAX and Flex GPUs instead of Nvidia A100 or v100.</p> <h2>Probable Upside?</h2> <p>Nvidia could pray hard that another GPU mining-friendly crypto currency becomes a hit. The die-hard loyalists of NVDA could argue that Ethereum is not the end of GPU crypto mining. There are still at least 10 worthy crypto currencies that could be mined using Nvidia’s list of discreet GPUs.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/27/19553521-1672138577187832.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Softwaretestinghelp.com</span></p></figcaption></figure> <p>Nvidia could spend some of that $13 billion cash to market and accelerate the growth of Vertcoin or Monero. Monero’s market cap is only $2.68 billion. Nvidia reportedly paid $7 billion to TSMC to secure 5-nanometer production for RTX 4080/4090 GPUs. Crypto mining is a solid tailwind for NVDA. Some of the most profitable GPUS for crypto mining are still made by Nvidia. It is an upside tailwind that Intel Arc 7 GPUs are still not being used for mining.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/27/19553521-16721385782834513.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>whattomine.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>The other upside catalysts could come from Nvidia’s recent acquisitions. The cloud storage focus of Excelero could help Nvidia rely less on GPU sales. The $59.2 billion global cloud storage industry is growing at 24.3% CAGR. I understand why Nvidia purchased interactive avatar tech company, Animatico. It is Nvidia’s diversification move to join the $18.375 billion digital signage solutions industry. Bright Computing’s cluster computing management platform complements the deep learning and machine learning GPUs of Nvidia.</p> <p>The acquisition of DeepMap could help Nvidia’s strategy on autonomous vehicles. I speculate that Nvidia could trade above $200 again if it comes up with an all-in-one product for the fast-growing (67.8% CAGR) $1.03 billion robo taxi industry. Intel and Nvidia are one of the collaborators why Baidu (BIDU) now operates its Apollo Go robo taxis in China.</p> <h2>My Verdict</h2> <p>My usual valuation for profitable and still-growing hardware firms like Nvidia is only 22x forward P/E. The January 2024 EPS estimate for Nvidia is $4.37. My fair value price target for NVDA is therefore only $96.14. It is well below the recent closing price of NVDA, $152.06.</p> <p>The decline in gaming GPU sales is hurting the net income and growth CAGR. NVDA is underweight at 98x forward GAAP P/E and 13.84x forward P/S. Take your losses and run. Please remember that my August 19, 2021 sell rating was when Nvidia was still trading above $219. I rarely do sell analyses since 2013. I only do bearish essays when I want to wake up other people from the mirage of overvalued companies like Nvidia.</p> <p>If you are a long timer, take your profits. NVDA is +144.58% since my no. 23, May 2018 buy recommendation. NVDA is +3,142.22% since my first buy recommendation for NVDA in April 10, 2014. NVDA has peaked and is on its way down. Intel and AMD are long-term headwinds for Nvidia’s Data Center segment. Intel and its contra-revenue tactic are going to chip away against that 88% market share of Nvidia in discrete GPUs.</p> <div></div> <p>I’m just a computer technician/graphic designer. You can ignore my sell thesis. You can follow the consensus buy rating of Wall Street analysts for NVDA. Wall Street’s average price target for NVDA is $203.17.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It Is What Is, Underweight Nvidia, Do Not Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt Is What Is, Underweight Nvidia, Do Not Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-28 04:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566593-nvidia-underweight-do-not-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Justin SullivanInvestment Thesis Nvidia’s YTD performance is -49.52%. This big dip has not eradicated the relative overvaluation of NVDA. I endorsed Nvidia before as a buy 23x here at Seeking Alpha up...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566593-nvidia-underweight-do-not-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/957037038/image_957037038.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU2125909593.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A SGD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2125909247.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta H-R/A SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566593-nvidia-underweight-do-not-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2294562092","content_text":"Justin SullivanInvestment Thesis Nvidia’s YTD performance is -49.52%. This big dip has not eradicated the relative overvaluation of NVDA. I endorsed Nvidia before as a buy 23x here at Seeking Alpha up to 2018. My older self now rates NVDA as a sell. I surmised NVDA is still flying too high at 91.88x forward GAAP P/E valuation. Nvidia’s TTM revenue CAGR is now only 17.68%. This is a big drop from its 3-year average 41.8% revenue CAGR. My fearless forecast is that NVDA’s negative price momentum has more downbeat fuel. My rule is that a high growth stock needs to produce at least 20% revenue CAGR. Nvidia is no longer a high-growth stock with its TTM 17.68% revenue CAGR. NVDA is underweight at 91.88x forward GAAP P/E. Not even the biggest company in the world, Apple (AAPL) can match the super high forward P/E of Nvidia. Apple’s forward GAAP P/E valuation is only 21.24x. Nvidia has a forward Price/Sales valuation of 13.84x. This is again an anomaly because Apple only has 5.17x forward P/S. The point is that it is a market aberration that Nvidia is being valued far higher than the world’s biggest publicly traded company in the world. I opine this market anomaly will eventually get corrected. The chart below says Nvidia’s Data Center’s revenue is stagnating. Gaming Segment’s revenue dropped big time in Q2 and Q3 FY23. We could blame this on crypto miners reselling their used GPUs. Retail prices of new GPU products were already getting cheaper in February. A flood of used crypto mining GPUs makes it harder for Nvidia to sell new GPUs. Nvidia.comIf you compare the screenshot above to the screenshot below, we are free to speculate that the substantial drop in Gaming segment revenue directly correlates with the big drop in quarterly net income. Seeking Alpha October 2022’s quarterly net income of $680 million is a massive decline from October 2021’s $2.464 billion. Negative Price Momentum Could Worsen I opine Nvidia’s valuation could fall further. GPU mining for Ethereum died last September. For the near-term I don’t expect the Gaming segment to contribute more than $3.5 billion/quarter again to Nvidia’s topline. It was GPU crypto mining that was responsible why the Gaming segment was generating so much quarterly sales. Yes, Jon Peddie Research’s Q3 report confirmed that Nvidia has 88% market share in discrete GPUs. This is nothing to celebrate about. NVDA is a sell because the Q3 2022 discrete GPU shipments of 14 million is a big drop by Q3 2022’s 24 million units. Nvidia is the top discrete GPU vendor, it should suffer the most from this big decline in quarterly shipments. It should also worry Nvidia’s management to see Intel (INTC) having 4% in Q3 discrete GPU shipments. Intel only launched its desktop PC Arc GPUs in China last June. The worrisome future scenario is that Intel has 86% market share in desktop x86 processors. Intel could use its contra-revenue tactic to encourage its PC OEM partners to bundle discrete Intel Arc 7 desktop GPUs in their future Windows 11/ Windows 12 computers. The Arc 770 is competitive against the gaming benchmark scores of Nvidia’s GeForce 3060 XT Limited Edition. PCworld.com and Thiago Trevisan The technical/emotional indicators are congruent with my bearish outlook for Nvidia. NVDA’s RSI dipped below 50 again in the week before Christmas Day. NVDA RSI is now only 42.51, below the neutral level of 50. RSI is saying investors and traders are again bearish on NVDA. Recent trades also triggered a short-term bearish signal called Stochastic Oversold Buried. It means NVDA’s fast stochastic has been below 20 and has been so for the past five trading days. Nvidia’s Average Directional Index or ADX trend is also bearish. The downward or minusDI colored red line is above the plusDI. The downward trend prevails. aiolux.com The other reason why I cannot rate NVDA as a buy or hold is its stingy dividend payments. Nvidia is very profitable. Management could use some of that $13 billion in total cash to improve that $0.16 dividend annual payment. The super-optimism of other NVDA shareholders deserves to be better rewarded. Nvidia management should learn from Apple’s forward annual dividend payment of $0.67. My takeaway is that it is not smart to do more of that$15 billion share buyback when NVDA is trading at 91.88x GAAP forward P/E. Increasing the dividend payments would be a better idea in my opinion.   Seeking Alpha PremiumIt is another letdown that Nvidia surrendered and failed to buy ARM Holdings. That failed attempt cost Nvidia $1.25 billion in unrecoverable pre-payment to SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY). That $1.25 billion could have been spent instead on increasing dividend payments this year. It could also have been used to pare down Nvidia’s total debt of $11.9 billion. Why Nvidia Has More Downside Risks The fabless hardware-centric business of Nvidia should not receive a 91.88x forward P/E valuation. The net income margin of this company is now only 20.85%. This is big drop from its 5-year average net margin of 30.08%. Nvidia’s usual manufacturing partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or TSMC (TSM) has a much higher net income margin of 42.51%. TSM’s GAAP forward P/E is only 11.78x. Nvidia’s future prosperity is tied to the manufacturing process of TSMC. The political tension between China and Taiwan is also a dark cloud over Nvidia. The rumor last April was that Nvidia made TSMC its sole GPU manufacturing partner. NVDA has become overly reliant on TSMC. The China threat has forced TSMC to commit $28 billion more to build factories in Arizona. Unfortunately, the first $12 billion TSMC factory being built in Arizona will only start 5-nanometer production in 2024. Nvidia loyalists could only pray that Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) Foundry could fix its factory yield issues. Nvidia is a fabless semiconductor firm that cannot rely one just one foundry partner. TSMC has an extensive list of foundry customers. I opine Nvidia is not going to get a preferential treatment. TSMC’s biggest customer is Apple. Leading customers of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in 2021, based on revenue share Statista.com Premium The reduced profitability of Nvidia could probably worsen. The $3.8 billion/quarter Data Center segment is doing well against Advanced Micro Devices’ (AMD) Instinct MI200 Series of GPU Accelerators. Going forward, the Xilinx Alveo data center accelerators and the recently-acquired Pensando infrastructure DPU (Data Processing Unit) could now be bundled with AMD EPYC processors and Instinct data center GPUs. Bundling is an effective way for AMD to disrupt Nvidia’s $3.8 billion/quarter data center business. Intel’s Flex Series data center GPUs is another major headwind for Nvidia. Intel currently has a negative revenue CAGR. It needs the 25% CAGR of the $17.89 billion data center accelerator market. Intel can also bundle its new AI-centric scalable 4th-Gen Xeon processors with its Max Series and Flex GPUs, FPGA accelerator cards, Movidius VPUs, and Habana Gaudi 2. Intel’s multiple hardware products for AI/ML/DL are nicely complemented by the free no-code OpenVino framework. Intel’s oneAPI toolkits are its equalizer to Nvidia’s CUDAtoolkits for AI, machine learning, and deep learning. The extremely high valuation ratios of NVDA are not going to last forever. Intel’s Habana Gaudi 2 can outperform Nvidia’s A100 on MLFPERF ResNet-50 and MLPERF BERT training time benchmark metrics. The old Intel Ponte Vecchio (now known as Intel Max GPU series) could also outperform the A100. It will take some time, but companies and individual developers will eventually learn oneAPI and OpenVino. When this time comes, they would be using Intel MAX and Flex GPUs instead of Nvidia A100 or v100. Probable Upside? Nvidia could pray hard that another GPU mining-friendly crypto currency becomes a hit. The die-hard loyalists of NVDA could argue that Ethereum is not the end of GPU crypto mining. There are still at least 10 worthy crypto currencies that could be mined using Nvidia’s list of discreet GPUs. Softwaretestinghelp.com Nvidia could spend some of that $13 billion cash to market and accelerate the growth of Vertcoin or Monero. Monero’s market cap is only $2.68 billion. Nvidia reportedly paid $7 billion to TSMC to secure 5-nanometer production for RTX 4080/4090 GPUs. Crypto mining is a solid tailwind for NVDA. Some of the most profitable GPUS for crypto mining are still made by Nvidia. It is an upside tailwind that Intel Arc 7 GPUs are still not being used for mining. whattomine.comThe other upside catalysts could come from Nvidia’s recent acquisitions. The cloud storage focus of Excelero could help Nvidia rely less on GPU sales. The $59.2 billion global cloud storage industry is growing at 24.3% CAGR. I understand why Nvidia purchased interactive avatar tech company, Animatico. It is Nvidia’s diversification move to join the $18.375 billion digital signage solutions industry. Bright Computing’s cluster computing management platform complements the deep learning and machine learning GPUs of Nvidia. The acquisition of DeepMap could help Nvidia’s strategy on autonomous vehicles. I speculate that Nvidia could trade above $200 again if it comes up with an all-in-one product for the fast-growing (67.8% CAGR) $1.03 billion robo taxi industry. Intel and Nvidia are one of the collaborators why Baidu (BIDU) now operates its Apollo Go robo taxis in China. My Verdict My usual valuation for profitable and still-growing hardware firms like Nvidia is only 22x forward P/E. The January 2024 EPS estimate for Nvidia is $4.37. My fair value price target for NVDA is therefore only $96.14. It is well below the recent closing price of NVDA, $152.06. The decline in gaming GPU sales is hurting the net income and growth CAGR. NVDA is underweight at 98x forward GAAP P/E and 13.84x forward P/S. Take your losses and run. Please remember that my August 19, 2021 sell rating was when Nvidia was still trading above $219. I rarely do sell analyses since 2013. I only do bearish essays when I want to wake up other people from the mirage of overvalued companies like Nvidia. If you are a long timer, take your profits. NVDA is +144.58% since my no. 23, May 2018 buy recommendation. NVDA is +3,142.22% since my first buy recommendation for NVDA in April 10, 2014. NVDA has peaked and is on its way down. Intel and AMD are long-term headwinds for Nvidia’s Data Center segment. Intel and its contra-revenue tactic are going to chip away against that 88% market share of Nvidia in discrete GPUs.  I’m just a computer technician/graphic designer. You can ignore my sell thesis. You can follow the consensus buy rating of Wall Street analysts for NVDA. Wall Street’s average price target for NVDA is $203.17.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023772854,"gmtCreate":1652969581378,"gmtModify":1676535198701,"author":{"id":"3572535866790814","authorId":"3572535866790814","name":"shihlonchen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b7848d7bddfe597ebfe5ce8085d5ae3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572535866790814","authorIdStr":"3572535866790814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"459 based on PE&nbsp;","listText":"459 based on PE&nbsp;","text":"459 based on PE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023772854","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023776735,"gmtCreate":1652969537427,"gmtModify":1676535198693,"author":{"id":"3572535866790814","authorId":"3572535866790814","name":"shihlonchen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b7848d7bddfe597ebfe5ce8085d5ae3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572535866790814","authorIdStr":"3572535866790814"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>450","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>450","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$450","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023776735","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}