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- chuanyichuanyi
  ·2021-03-01
  Ttm
  Berkshire’s Busy 2020 Broke a Record Despite Lack of Major Deals
  Read more about Berkshire’s letter hereWarren Buffett made no splashy deals in 2020, and he didn’t w
  Berkshire’s Busy 2020 Broke a Record Despite Lack of Major Deals
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- chuanyichuanyi
  ·2021-03-01
  Ttttm
  Why stock investors are starting to really worry about rising bond yields
  KEY POINTS Since February 10th, 10-year Treasury yields have moved from 1.13% to as high as 1.61%,
  Why stock investors are starting to really worry about rising bond yields
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Behind the scenes, the 90-year oldbillionaire was hardly inactive.</p><p>Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was firing up another engine: stocks -- both buying its own and trading others. The conglomerate snapped up $24.7 billion of Berkshire shares last year, a stark record for the business sitting atop a $138 billion cash pile. It also almost doubled the volume of buying and selling of other stocks compared to 2019.</p><p>The moves signal a carefully forged path in markets sent convulsing by the pandemic and then lifted by stimulus that’s paved the way for heavy retail trading and an unprecedented SPAC boom. And Buffett is sticking close to home -- ultimately becoming a net seller of shares in other companies for the first time since 2016, while his prolific repurchases of Berkshire stock continued into this year with at least $4.2 billion of buybacks through mid-February, according to a regulatory filing Saturday.</p><p>“Last year we demonstrated our enthusiasm for Berkshire’s spread of properties by repurchasing the equivalent of 80,998 ‘A’ shares,” Buffett said in the letter released Saturday. “That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire’s businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet.”</p><p>Buffett's War Chest</p><p>Berkshire held more than $138 billion in cash at the end of last year</p><p>Source: Company filings</p><p>Buffett spent a sizable portion of Saturday’s letter delving into buybacks, a substantial shift for an investor who previously had largely shunned the practice and instead favored purchasing big businesses or stocks of other companies. Heloosenedthe buyback policy in 2018 as Berkshire’s cash pile kept reaching new heights. And Berkshire stock, which has underperformed the broader market in recent years, continued that trend last year with shares just gaining 2.4% compared to the 16% rally in the S&amp;P 500 Index.</p><p>Buffett had long been careful with buybacks, a trait that harkens back to his days running a partnership. In his letter released in 2019 after the buyback change, he made it clear that he wants investors to be fully informed about the company before they decide to sell their shares back to the firm.</p><p>He spent his recent letter acknowledging that there were investors, including index funds, professional managers and individuals, who were required to hold some Berkshire shares or would be likely to come and go based on their investing judgment. He’d still stick by the investors who want to invest for the long term, he added.</p><p>“Charlie and I would be less than human if we did notfeela special kinship with our fifth bucket: the million-plus individual investors who simply trust us to represent their interests, whatever the future may bring,” Buffett said in his letter released Saturday, referring to long-time business partner, Charlie Munger. “They have joined us with no intent to leave, adopting a mindset similar to that held by our original partners.”</p><p>Cash Pile</p><p>Berkshire still has more than $138 billion in cash to deploy. A portion of the never-ending cash flow will be sucked up by two of its businesses, the railroad and energy operations, and Buffett said the incremental investment will probably generate “appropriate” returns. Railroad BNSF has invested $41 billion in fixed assets, and has paid $41.8 billion in dividends to the conglomerate since its purchase in 2010, Buffett said in his letter.</p><p>While the attractiveness of share buybacks might come or go based on the market’s price for Berkshire, the conglomerate still has those two large operations that continuously help reinvest funds, according to shareholder Thomas Russo. That, Russo argues, helps ease the pressure on Berkshire to do an “elephant-sized acquisition” to generate more returns.</p><p>“He doesn’t really have to find the elephant because he has two elephants already corralled that need to be fed,” said Russo, who oversees a portfolio including Berkshire at investment adviser Gardner Russo &amp; Gardner. “One of them is Burlington Northern and one of them is Berkshire Hathaway Energy. He can deploy tens of billions of dollars on an ongoing basis, bringing bothup tostandard,” and then still have funds to deploy in an acquisition.</p><p>One of Berkshire’s top three most valuable assets these days is actually a $120 billion holding of Apple Inc. shares, an investment he likened in importance to the railroad. Berkshire hasended upwith an even larger portion of the company’s shares thanks in part to Apple’s own appetite for buybacks, Buffett acknowledged in the letter.</p><p>What's moving marketsStart your day with the 5 Things newsletter.EmailBloomberg may send me offers and promotions.Sign UpBy submitting my information, I agree to thePrivacy Policyand&nbsp;Terms of Service.</p><p>“He’s redefined what an elephant can be,” said James Armstrong, who manages assets including Berkshire shares as president of Henry H. Armstrong Associates. “An elephant can be thought of as a 5.4% interest in Apple.”</p><p>Some of Berkshire’s major tweaks to its $281 billion stock portfolio last year were done to reposition its holdings. Throughout 2020, Buffett’s company cut its holdings in banks, insurance and finance firms -- an exposure that constituted more than 41% of the portfolio at the end of 2019 -- to just 24% of the portfolio by the end of last year. He alsodumpedhis airline stocks earlier in the pandemic.</p><p>Chevron, Verizon</p><p>The company did find stocks tobuylast year, including two large stakes in Chevron Corp. and Verizon Communications Inc., plus some purchases of pharmaceutical companies. Berkshire alsobought$6 billion worth of stock in five of Japan’s biggest trading companies.</p><p>“He’s been a net seller, however, more recently it seems like he’s identified some opportunities, buying blocks of Japanese industrial stocks” and some health care stocks, Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward D. Jones &amp; Co., said in an interview. “He is finding some value given all the limitations. He can’t put a substantial amount of capital to work into any individual stock unless it’s a large one. But being willing to consider investments in a basket of similar companies creates a little bit more opportunity for them too.”</p><p>Buffett made little mention in this year’s letter about one of the looming questions over the conglomerate: Succession. The investor, who’sreceivedhis coronavirus vaccine, proved he’s still willing to travel by announcing he’ll head to Los Angeles to film this year’s annual meeting alongside Munger, 97, who wasn’t able to make it to last year’s event in Omaha, Nebraska.</p><p>“This year our meeting will be held in Los Angeles. . .and Charlie will be on stage with me offering answers and observations throughout the 3 1/2-hour question period,” Buffett said in the letter. “I missed him last year and, more important, you clearly missed him.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire’s Busy 2020 Broke a Record Despite Lack of Major Deals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire’s Busy 2020 Broke a Record Despite Lack of Major Deals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 11:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-28/berkshire-s-busy-2020-broke-a-record-despite-lack-of-major-deals><strong>bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Read more about Berkshire’s letter hereWarren Buffett made no splashy deals in 2020, and he didn’t weigh in on some of the year’s most contentious topics in his much-anticipated annual letter. Behind ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-28/berkshire-s-busy-2020-broke-a-record-despite-lack-of-major-deals\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480431b5715196c0e96044cc36788e36","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-28/berkshire-s-busy-2020-broke-a-record-despite-lack-of-major-deals","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140907630","content_text":"Read more about Berkshire’s letter hereWarren Buffett made no splashy deals in 2020, and he didn’t weigh in on some of the year’s most contentious topics in his much-anticipated annual letter. Behind the scenes, the 90-year oldbillionaire was hardly inactive.Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was firing up another engine: stocks -- both buying its own and trading others. The conglomerate snapped up $24.7 billion of Berkshire shares last year, a stark record for the business sitting atop a $138 billion cash pile. It also almost doubled the volume of buying and selling of other stocks compared to 2019.The moves signal a carefully forged path in markets sent convulsing by the pandemic and then lifted by stimulus that’s paved the way for heavy retail trading and an unprecedented SPAC boom. And Buffett is sticking close to home -- ultimately becoming a net seller of shares in other companies for the first time since 2016, while his prolific repurchases of Berkshire stock continued into this year with at least $4.2 billion of buybacks through mid-February, according to a regulatory filing Saturday.“Last year we demonstrated our enthusiasm for Berkshire’s spread of properties by repurchasing the equivalent of 80,998 ‘A’ shares,” Buffett said in the letter released Saturday. “That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire’s businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet.”Buffett's War ChestBerkshire held more than $138 billion in cash at the end of last yearSource: Company filingsBuffett spent a sizable portion of Saturday’s letter delving into buybacks, a substantial shift for an investor who previously had largely shunned the practice and instead favored purchasing big businesses or stocks of other companies. Heloosenedthe buyback policy in 2018 as Berkshire’s cash pile kept reaching new heights. And Berkshire stock, which has underperformed the broader market in recent years, continued that trend last year with shares just gaining 2.4% compared to the 16% rally in the S&P 500 Index.Buffett had long been careful with buybacks, a trait that harkens back to his days running a partnership. In his letter released in 2019 after the buyback change, he made it clear that he wants investors to be fully informed about the company before they decide to sell their shares back to the firm.He spent his recent letter acknowledging that there were investors, including index funds, professional managers and individuals, who were required to hold some Berkshire shares or would be likely to come and go based on their investing judgment. He’d still stick by the investors who want to invest for the long term, he added.“Charlie and I would be less than human if we did notfeela special kinship with our fifth bucket: the million-plus individual investors who simply trust us to represent their interests, whatever the future may bring,” Buffett said in his letter released Saturday, referring to long-time business partner, Charlie Munger. “They have joined us with no intent to leave, adopting a mindset similar to that held by our original partners.”Cash PileBerkshire still has more than $138 billion in cash to deploy. A portion of the never-ending cash flow will be sucked up by two of its businesses, the railroad and energy operations, and Buffett said the incremental investment will probably generate “appropriate” returns. Railroad BNSF has invested $41 billion in fixed assets, and has paid $41.8 billion in dividends to the conglomerate since its purchase in 2010, Buffett said in his letter.While the attractiveness of share buybacks might come or go based on the market’s price for Berkshire, the conglomerate still has those two large operations that continuously help reinvest funds, according to shareholder Thomas Russo. That, Russo argues, helps ease the pressure on Berkshire to do an “elephant-sized acquisition” to generate more returns.“He doesn’t really have to find the elephant because he has two elephants already corralled that need to be fed,” said Russo, who oversees a portfolio including Berkshire at investment adviser Gardner Russo & Gardner. “One of them is Burlington Northern and one of them is Berkshire Hathaway Energy. He can deploy tens of billions of dollars on an ongoing basis, bringing bothup tostandard,” and then still have funds to deploy in an acquisition.One of Berkshire’s top three most valuable assets these days is actually a $120 billion holding of Apple Inc. shares, an investment he likened in importance to the railroad. Berkshire hasended upwith an even larger portion of the company’s shares thanks in part to Apple’s own appetite for buybacks, Buffett acknowledged in the letter.What's moving marketsStart your day with the 5 Things newsletter.EmailBloomberg may send me offers and promotions.Sign UpBy submitting my information, I agree to thePrivacy Policyand Terms of Service.“He’s redefined what an elephant can be,” said James Armstrong, who manages assets including Berkshire shares as president of Henry H. Armstrong Associates. “An elephant can be thought of as a 5.4% interest in Apple.”Some of Berkshire’s major tweaks to its $281 billion stock portfolio last year were done to reposition its holdings. Throughout 2020, Buffett’s company cut its holdings in banks, insurance and finance firms -- an exposure that constituted more than 41% of the portfolio at the end of 2019 -- to just 24% of the portfolio by the end of last year. He alsodumpedhis airline stocks earlier in the pandemic.Chevron, VerizonThe company did find stocks tobuylast year, including two large stakes in Chevron Corp. and Verizon Communications Inc., plus some purchases of pharmaceutical companies. Berkshire alsobought$6 billion worth of stock in five of Japan’s biggest trading companies.“He’s been a net seller, however, more recently it seems like he’s identified some opportunities, buying blocks of Japanese industrial stocks” and some health care stocks, Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward D. Jones & Co., said in an interview. “He is finding some value given all the limitations. He can’t put a substantial amount of capital to work into any individual stock unless it’s a large one. But being willing to consider investments in a basket of similar companies creates a little bit more opportunity for them too.”Buffett made little mention in this year’s letter about one of the looming questions over the conglomerate: Succession. The investor, who’sreceivedhis coronavirus vaccine, proved he’s still willing to travel by announcing he’ll head to Los Angeles to film this year’s annual meeting alongside Munger, 97, who wasn’t able to make it to last year’s event in Omaha, Nebraska.“This year our meeting will be held in Los Angeles. . .and Charlie will be on stage with me offering answers and observations throughout the 3 1/2-hour question period,” Buffett said in the letter. “I missed him last year and, more important, you clearly missed him.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362018632,"gmtCreate":1614572853726,"gmtModify":1704772566294,"author":{"id":"3572964943386589","authorId":"3572964943386589","name":"chuanyi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572964943386589","authorIdStr":"3572964943386589"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ttttm","listText":"Ttttm","text":"Ttttm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362018632","repostId":"1108379103","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108379103","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614306313,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108379103?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-26 10:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why stock investors are starting to really worry about rising bond yields","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108379103","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nSince February 10th, 10-year Treasury yields have moved from 1.13% to as high as 1.61%, ","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nSince February 10th, 10-year Treasury yields have moved from 1.13% to as high as 1.61%, a rise of 48 basis points, the highest level in a year.\nBond investors are getting worried about the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/why-stock-investors-are-starting-to-really-worry-about-rising-bond-yields.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why stock investors are starting to really worry about rising bond yields</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy stock investors are starting to really worry about rising bond yields\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-26 10:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/why-stock-investors-are-starting-to-really-worry-about-rising-bond-yields.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nSince February 10th, 10-year Treasury yields have moved from 1.13% to as high as 1.61%, a rise of 48 basis points, the highest level in a year.\nBond investors are getting worried about the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/why-stock-investors-are-starting-to-really-worry-about-rising-bond-yields.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VIX":"标普500波动率指数"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/why-stock-investors-are-starting-to-really-worry-about-rising-bond-yields.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1108379103","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nSince February 10th, 10-year Treasury yields have moved from 1.13% to as high as 1.61%, a rise of 48 basis points, the highest level in a year.\nBond investors are getting worried about the potential for inflation.\nSaid one investor on the impact to equities: “The days of simply piling into the market leaders regardless of valuation may be drawing to a close.”\n\nStock investors are trying desperately to interpret what a rise in bond yields means for the stock market.\nSince February 10th,10-year Treasury yields— which are not inflation adjusted — have moved from 1.13% to as high as 1.61%, a rise of 48 basis points,the highest level in a year. (One basis point equals 0.01%)\nFear of inflation is causing investors to speculate the Federal Reserve may have to shift policy sooner than expected, by either reducing bond purchases or even raising rates at some point. That would be a negative for stocks. The Dow was down 559 points on Thursday.\nPeter Tchir from Academy Securities says the recent rise in 10-year bond yields represents a perception about inflation, but not necessarily the reality:  “The rise in 10-year bond yields does not reflect an actual rise in inflation, it reflects that investors anticipate there will be a rise in inflation,” he told me.\nTchir notes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been pushing back against the idea that over-the-top inflation is coming, noting in his testimony that broad signs of inflation have not been present in the real world, and that if they do occur any such rises would be “transitory.”\nWho’s right on inflation?\nBond investors are getting worried about the potential for inflation.  Powell says to stop worrying about it.  Who’s right?\nIt depends on who you ask, and what you are looking at.\nDo we see inflation in the real world?  We do in commodities: Oil is approaching the highest since 2018, for example, and copper is at an almost 10-year high.\nBut signs of consumer inflation, for example, have been muted, with inflation at or below 2% for many years.\nBulls like Tchir insist that, in this case, the rise in bond yields is not a negative for stocks: “This time the rise in yields is coming from economic growth, stimulus, and infrastructure.  All of that is good for stocks.  That’s why this rise doesn’t scare me too much.”\nHe says the rise in commodity prices can be easily absorbed, and believes that much of that rise is just a temporary condition reflecting the reopening, and that prices will revert back to “normal” levels over time.\nHans Mikkelsen, credit strategist at Bank of America, is not so sure.  He agrees with Tchir on economic growth, but thinks it will be much stronger than anticipated and that will push inflation up:  “Since the summer of 2020 economists have consistently underestimated economic growth to an extent never seen before. There appears a real risk the Fed is not going to be able to sound dovish much longer and that transition could see wider credit spreads.”\nStocks on edge\nThe key to the game, Tchir insists, is whether Powell can stick to his guns:  “If the Fed remains committed to keeping short-term yields low, that will give people comfort we will not get a ‘taper tantrum,’ where rates suddenly skyrocket.   Powell has told us he is comfortable with inflation and he is not going to react to short-term movements.  I believe he is going to stick to his guns.”\nThere’s another issue:  Because stock prices are so high there is no room for error.  Small shifts in yields could cause tech investors in particular to take profits, under the assumption that this is as good as it gets.\nVeteran stock commentator Michael Farr from Farr, Miller & Washington has already told clients that even this relatively modest rise in rates is a signal:  “The days of simply piling into the market leaders regardless of valuation may be drawing to a close.  Investors must now recognize that there are alternative opportunities out there, including both heretofore underperforming stocks as well as incrementally more attractive bonds.  A powerful economic rebound combined with rising interest rates and higher inflation, if that indeed transpires, will change the investment backdrop in a meaningful way.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}