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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-05-17
nice
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-05-16
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Does the U.S. stock bull market end or continue? Wall Street divides
美国银行技术策略师Stephen Suttmeier认为，始于2013年的美股牛市正进入第10个年头，这种上升趋势可能持续到2027年。这一乐观看法与悲观的华尔街同行形成鲜明对比。Suttmeier表
Does the U.S. stock bull market end or continue? Wall Street divides
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-05-10
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Don't be hurt by the Fed's tightening, keep an eye on these four weather vanes
美联储即将发现，在金融市场崩溃之前，它能将金融市场挤压到什么程度。
Don't be hurt by the Fed's tightening, keep an eye on these four weather vanes
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-05-10
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Fed Barkin: Fighting inflation may not necessarily lead to a recession
美国里士满联邦储备银行行长托马斯-巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）称，美联储将把利率提高到既不会刺激也不会抑制需求的水平，然后决定是否必须再进一步。“进入中性利率区间之后，我们可以再判断通胀是否仍
Fed Barkin: Fighting inflation may not necessarily lead to a recession
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-05-10
nice
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-04-29
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Disney is bitter: I can't even talk if I don't want to
中国有句老话，“闷声大发财”。但全球娱乐巨头迪士尼最近却公开叫板佛罗里达州政府，引发了政治报复，更陷入了一场政治漩涡。不准提同性恋法案美国佛罗里达州州长德桑蒂斯(RonDeSantis)本周正式签署该
Disney is bitter: I can't even talk if I don't want to
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-04-28
Nice
Despite supply chain challenges, Caterpillar Q1 revenue increased by 14%
卡特彼勒于4月28日盘前，公布了2022年第一季度财报。该公司一季度销售额和收入增长14%，至136亿美元，去年同期为119亿美元;营业利润率为13.7%，而2021年第一季度为15.3%;调整后每股
Despite supply chain challenges, Caterpillar Q1 revenue increased by 14%
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-04-27
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-04-20
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Musk sets up the Flag again! Said to achieve "fully autonomous driving" this year
有亿万富翁自掏百万美元抵制！
Musk sets up the Flag again! Said to achieve "fully autonomous driving" this year
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CalvinChong
CalvinChong
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2022-04-17
thx
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Wall Street divides","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235542298","media":"智通财经","summary":"美国银行技术策略师Stephen Suttmeier认为，始于2013年的美股牛市正进入第10个年头，这种上升趋势可能持续到2027年。这一乐观看法与悲观的华尔街同行形成鲜明对比。Suttmeier表","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier believes that the U.S. stock bull market that started in 2013 is entering its 10th year, and this upward trend may continue until 2027. This optimistic view is in stark contrast to its pessimistic Wall Street peers.</p><p>Suttmeier said that the bull market that began in 1980 lasted until 2000 (20 years), and the bull market that began in 1950 lasted until 1966 (16 years). On the basis of past bull markets, this bull market that began in 2013 is expected to last.</p><p>Suttmeier said the long-term bull market of 1950-1966 began with low interest rates and, as it is now, didn't end until the 10-year rate hit 5%.</p><p>Suttmeier said the long-term cycle of the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield is much longer than that of the S&P 500. During the bond bull market (falling yields) of 1920-1945, the stock market experienced bull markets and bear markets afterwards. During the bond bear market (rising yields) of 1945-1981, the stock market also experienced bull and bear markets. During the bond bull market of 1981-2020, the stock market experienced the first seven years of a bull market, a bear market, and another bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef24453904d28279e365803f568fb633\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Suttmeier said the 2020 pullback marks \"halfway through\" the current bull market and suggests that this uptrend can continue until 2027 (late 2020s).</p><p>This year, the S&P 500 has resistance at 5,000 and support at 4,800.</p><p>But cyclical bear markets weigh on long-term bulls. Last Friday, the S&P 500 successfully held the downside test level of 3,800 points. The 200-week moving average of 3,475 points is also a major test point.</p><p>Unlike the optimistic Suttmeier,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Mike Wilson believes that the bear market rebound has begun and the decline in U.S. stocks is not over yet. Wilson expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 3,400.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Said a recession would push the S&P 500 to 3,600.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does the U.S. stock bull market end or continue? 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Wall Street divides\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-16 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier believes that the U.S. stock bull market that started in 2013 is entering its 10th year, and this upward trend may continue until 2027. This optimistic view is in stark contrast to its pessimistic Wall Street peers.</p><p>Suttmeier said that the bull market that began in 1980 lasted until 2000 (20 years), and the bull market that began in 1950 lasted until 1966 (16 years). On the basis of past bull markets, this bull market that began in 2013 is expected to last.</p><p>Suttmeier said the long-term bull market of 1950-1966 began with low interest rates and, as it is now, didn't end until the 10-year rate hit 5%.</p><p>Suttmeier said the long-term cycle of the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield is much longer than that of the S&P 500. During the bond bull market (falling yields) of 1920-1945, the stock market experienced bull markets and bear markets afterwards. During the bond bear market (rising yields) of 1945-1981, the stock market also experienced bull and bear markets. During the bond bull market of 1981-2020, the stock market experienced the first seven years of a bull market, a bear market, and another bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef24453904d28279e365803f568fb633\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Suttmeier said the 2020 pullback marks \"halfway through\" the current bull market and suggests that this uptrend can continue until 2027 (late 2020s).</p><p>This year, the S&P 500 has resistance at 5,000 and support at 4,800.</p><p>But cyclical bear markets weigh on long-term bulls. Last Friday, the S&P 500 successfully held the downside test level of 3,800 points. The 200-week moving average of 3,475 points is also a major test point.</p><p>Unlike the optimistic Suttmeier,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Mike Wilson believes that the bear market rebound has begun and the decline in U.S. stocks is not over yet. Wilson expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 3,400.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Said a recession would push the S&P 500 to 3,600.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/723849.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","GS":"高盛","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4207":"综合性银行","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BAC":"美国银行","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/723849.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2235542298","content_text":"美国银行技术策略师Stephen Suttmeier认为，始于2013年的美股牛市正进入第10个年头，这种上升趋势可能持续到2027年。这一乐观看法与悲观的华尔街同行形成鲜明对比。Suttmeier表示，始于1980年的牛市持续到2000年(20年)，始于1950年的牛市持续到1966年(16年)，在过去牛市的基础上，本轮始于2013年的牛市有望持续。Suttmeier表示，1950-1966年的长期牛市始于低利率，就像现在一样，直到10年期利率触及5%才结束。Suttmeier表示，美国10年期国债收益率的长期周期比标普500指数的长期周期长得多。在1920-1945年的债券牛市(收益率下降)期间，股市经历了牛市及之后的熊市。在1945-1981年的债券熊市(收益率上升)期间，股市也经历了牛市和熊市。在1981-2020年的债券牛市期间，股市经历了牛市、熊市和另一个牛市的头七年。Suttmeier表示，2020年的回调标志着当前牛市到达“一半时间”，并表明这种上升趋势可以持续到2027年(本世纪20年代末)。今年，标普500的阻力位在5000点，支撑位在4800点。但周期性熊市对长期牛市构成压力。上周五，标普500成功守住3800点的下行测试水平。200周移动均线3475点也是一个重大测试点位。与乐观的Suttmeier不同，摩根士丹利策略师Mike Wilson认为，熊市反弹已开启，美股下跌还未结束。Wilson预计标普500指数年底将收于3400点。此外，高盛表示，经济衰退将推动标普500指数达到3600点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"BAC":0.87,".SPX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"GS":0.85,"SDS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065236829,"gmtCreate":1652194904561,"gmtModify":1676535050043,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","name":"CalvinChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573814781456643","authorIdStr":"3573814781456643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065236829","repostId":"1133637184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133637184","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652191233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133637184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 22:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Don't be hurt by the Fed's tightening, keep an eye on these four weather vanes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133637184","media":"金十数据","summary":"美联储即将发现，在金融市场崩溃之前，它能将金融市场挤压到什么程度。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>These four indicators may be the key to whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing of the economy... The Fed is about to discover how far it can squeeze financial markets before they collapse.</p><p>In an effort to curb the most widespread inflation in decades, the Federal Reserve last week announced its largest single rate hike since 2000, while outlining a plan to unwind trillions of dollars in asset purchases. These asset purchase programs have kept global markets flush with cash since the economic collapse in 2020.</p><p>The rest of the world's central banks are expected to follow suit soon. Foreign media estimate that in 2022, the total balance sheet of the central banks of the Group of Seven (G7) will shrink by approximately US $410 billion.</p><p>However,<b>This all comes amid one of the most volatile periods for the global economy in recent years</b>。 The Russia-Ukraine war and the slew of sanctions that accompanied it have upended business. Supply chains disrupted by the pandemic have become more strained, and companies have been hit by everything from labor to soaring commodity prices. The worry now is whether central banks can withdraw from their previous massive easing policies without disrupting capital flows and plunging the economy into recession.</p><p>The analysis points out that while there are no signs of widespread stress at this time, some indicators of cross-asset health are approaching the danger zone. All of this points to a bumpy ride ahead for investors as the Federal Reserve pulls out of its unprecedented liquidity measures. Here are four main warning signs.</p><p><b>1. Inverted U.S. bond yield curve</b></p><p>Even if the Fed's bond-buying spree during the pandemic distorted the bond market,<b>The U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve has always been the most important economic forecaster on Wall Street.</b></p><p>In normal times when the business cycle is in good shape, long-term 10-year bonds will yield higher than short-term bonds because investors need more compensation to deal with the risk that inflation will erode returns in the future. If the opposite happens, i.e. short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, it is called an inversion, indicating that central banks will eventually have to cut interest rates to save economic growth.</p><p>While not every yield curve inversion leads to an economic downturn, this signal is surprisingly accurate if more maturities of U.S. bond yield curves are inverted, especially when the two most watched yield curves are inverted at the same time. Since the early 1990s, whenever the yields on 3-month and 2-year U.S. Treasuries exceed the yields on 10-year Treasury Bond, the U.S. economy has almost no exception in the next 6 to 18 months. There will be recessions.</p><p>The latest double inversion occurred before the pandemic, but the recent big swings in the yield curve have Wall Street on the edge of its seats.</p><p>In late March and early April, 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields briefly inverted, reflecting market anxiety about the Fed's aggressive policy tightening as it threatens to trigger a recession by raising the cost of money, thereby limiting consumers. spending and business activity.</p><p>Meanwhile, the spread between 3-month U.S. Treasury Bond and 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields has been moving in opposite directions, suggesting that the outlook for U.S. investment and consumption remains healthy, giving the Fed room to implement its policy tightening program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959bc789523de2a1ec0ab2873623712f\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For now, worries about the yield curve are everywhere as the end of the era of easy money hits global markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has had its worst start to the year in decades, with speculative equity strategies losing billions of dollars and cross-asset volatility surging globally.</p><p>David Hunt, chief executive of PGIM, warned last week that signals from bond markets suggest that there is a high risk of a recession in 2024, and Ken Griffin of Citadel also said the current economic outlook is the most uncertain since the 08 financial crisis.</p><p><b>2. Disruption of credit flows</b></p><p>American companies can no longer borrow at extremely low interest rates, which is the direct effect of the Federal Reserve's cooling of the hot business cycle.</p><p>But when borrowing costs soar too hard, too fast, the flow of corporate credit can be disrupted, or even completely blocked. In extreme cases, even healthy companies can lose access to financing and cause economic havoc. The most recent occurred during the pandemic, when forcing the Federal Reserve to take unprecedented accommodative actions to keep American businesses alive.</p><p>The yield differential between U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasury Bond, the most widely watched credit measure, has now risen to 1.35 percentage points from 0.8 percentage points in June 2021, indicating rising borrowing costs, but still below a key threshold for stress-1.5 percentage points.</p><p>Generally speaking,<b>When the spread exceeds 1.5 percentage points, it sends a warning signal that credit markets may be malfunctioning, making borrowing harder.</b>In the turbulent years after the global financial crisis and during the pandemic, this indicator exceeded 2 percentage points, which shows that it is a reliable red flag.</p><p>The data shows that when investment-grade credit spreads approach and exceed 2 percentage points, commercial banks' C&I loan growth almost always contracts with it. This has happened six times since 1989.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7519e9bf9b721c2c3d059f4e7fc8cf13\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For example, in January 2008, the borrowing spread of investment-grade enterprises soared above 2 percentage points for the first time in more than five years, and then remained above this level for nearly two years, followed by a long slowdown in the scale of industrial and commercial loans. Starting in November 2008, the amount of loans has declined for two consecutive years, causing historic damage to the world economy.</p><p>Most recently, credit spreads surged to more than 3.5 percentage points during the March 2020 sell-off. However, as the Federal Reserve injected liquidity into the financial system and even offered to buy corporate bonds outright, the easiest borrowing conditions ever prompted the size of loans to peak the following year.</p><p>Today, credit spreads are rising again, and corporate debt is beginning to become volatile. Investors and businesses alike will be watching to see if borrowing costs soar into risk territory, disrupting credit flows again.</p><p><b>3. Junk bond risk premium</b></p><p>During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve and other central banks took steps to give borrowers with poor balance sheets a breather. For the better part of two years, credit costs were low and defaults were virtually non-existent. But as interest rates rise, the liquidity feast is quickly coming to an end-with new speculative bond issuances this year falling to their lowest level since 2009.</p><p>For example, Carvana Co. 's recent bond issuance struggled to attract investors, and the used car company ended up paying a high 10.25% yield and bankruptcy protection clauses. Similar cases abound.</p><p>One indicator that investors pay close attention to is the additional risk premium needed to buy bonds of the lowest-rated companies relative to bonds of investment-grade companies.<b>When this premium rises, issuers most in need of financing, especially those with poor credit ratings due to weak cash flows or debt burdens above earnings, will have higher borrowing costs and harder access to financing.</b></p><p>If companies with limited capital reserves and debt maturities don't have access to the primary market, defaults and bankruptcies are more likely.</p><p>According to data compiled by foreign media, for most of the post-pandemic period, the borrowing rates of global junk-rated companies were not much higher than those of some of the largest companies (averaging only 2.4 percentage points higher in 2021, when credit conditions were the loosest ever). percentage points). This makes it very rare for businesses to go bankrupt. But now the situation has begun to change. The risk premium on junk bonds climbed to more than 3 percentage points last week. While that's below the historical average of about 4 percentage points, liquidity tightening's speed could soon spell trouble for the most vulnerable companies.</p><p><b>The data shows that since 2000, when risk premiums climbed above five percentage points and remained above that level for an extended period of time, default rates were almost always higher than historical standards.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9bf6d4a0f1bd4bedb930b2b92decbe\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Short-term money market collapse</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's massive economic stimulus package during the pandemic resulted in excess liquidity in the financial system, with banks receiving record amounts of cash in the form of reserves. Now, as the Federal Reserve begins cutting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, Wall Street is on high alert for the resulting clogging of the financial pipeline.</p><p>When the Fed begins to shrink its asset holdings by not renewing maturing securities, there will be more Treasury Bond and mortgage bonds looking for buyers in the private sector. The amount of reserves held in the banking system will decline.</p><p>No one knows how this will all end up. But after the last time the Fed implemented quantitative tightening, something bad happened at the end of 2019. Banks' reserves plummeted, causing a damaging spike in the repo rate, the cornerstone of the short-term funding market, which ultimately created liquidity problems and forced central banks to intervene in the funding market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797c50110866e8e5a534119fccb7d2ce\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since then, the Fed has implemented other tools to help reduce these liquidity risks, but things are hard to predict. About two and a half years ago, the total reserves held by thrifts at the Federal Reserve fell to about $1.4 trillion. Although banks thought $700 billion was the lowest threshold at the time, it was still enough to trigger liquidity problems for overnight loans.</p><p>Barclays estimates that,<b>This time the tipping point is around $2 trillion</b>(currently $3.3 trillion). But since all of this is speculation and there is little historical precedent, it will be a key concern for risk watchers until foreign exchange reserves reach this level.</p><p>All in all, global traders should prepare for a disruptive tightening of financial conditions across multiple sectors from bonds and credit to money markets as the Federal Reserve no longer provides liquidity to markets.</p><p>Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, said at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles:</p><p>\"Historically, we have never been able to reduce inflation by more than 2 percentage points without triggering a recession. I think it's really hard for the Fed to achieve a soft landing.\"</body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't be hurt by the Fed's tightening, keep an eye on these four weather vanes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't be hurt by the Fed's tightening, keep an eye on these four weather vanes\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-10 22:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>These four indicators may be the key to whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing of the economy... The Fed is about to discover how far it can squeeze financial markets before they collapse.</p><p>In an effort to curb the most widespread inflation in decades, the Federal Reserve last week announced its largest single rate hike since 2000, while outlining a plan to unwind trillions of dollars in asset purchases. These asset purchase programs have kept global markets flush with cash since the economic collapse in 2020.</p><p>The rest of the world's central banks are expected to follow suit soon. Foreign media estimate that in 2022, the total balance sheet of the central banks of the Group of Seven (G7) will shrink by approximately US $410 billion.</p><p>However,<b>This all comes amid one of the most volatile periods for the global economy in recent years</b>。 The Russia-Ukraine war and the slew of sanctions that accompanied it have upended business. Supply chains disrupted by the pandemic have become more strained, and companies have been hit by everything from labor to soaring commodity prices. The worry now is whether central banks can withdraw from their previous massive easing policies without disrupting capital flows and plunging the economy into recession.</p><p>The analysis points out that while there are no signs of widespread stress at this time, some indicators of cross-asset health are approaching the danger zone. All of this points to a bumpy ride ahead for investors as the Federal Reserve pulls out of its unprecedented liquidity measures. Here are four main warning signs.</p><p><b>1. Inverted U.S. bond yield curve</b></p><p>Even if the Fed's bond-buying spree during the pandemic distorted the bond market,<b>The U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve has always been the most important economic forecaster on Wall Street.</b></p><p>In normal times when the business cycle is in good shape, long-term 10-year bonds will yield higher than short-term bonds because investors need more compensation to deal with the risk that inflation will erode returns in the future. If the opposite happens, i.e. short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, it is called an inversion, indicating that central banks will eventually have to cut interest rates to save economic growth.</p><p>While not every yield curve inversion leads to an economic downturn, this signal is surprisingly accurate if more maturities of U.S. bond yield curves are inverted, especially when the two most watched yield curves are inverted at the same time. Since the early 1990s, whenever the yields on 3-month and 2-year U.S. Treasuries exceed the yields on 10-year Treasury Bond, the U.S. economy has almost no exception in the next 6 to 18 months. There will be recessions.</p><p>The latest double inversion occurred before the pandemic, but the recent big swings in the yield curve have Wall Street on the edge of its seats.</p><p>In late March and early April, 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields briefly inverted, reflecting market anxiety about the Fed's aggressive policy tightening as it threatens to trigger a recession by raising the cost of money, thereby limiting consumers. spending and business activity.</p><p>Meanwhile, the spread between 3-month U.S. Treasury Bond and 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yields has been moving in opposite directions, suggesting that the outlook for U.S. investment and consumption remains healthy, giving the Fed room to implement its policy tightening program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959bc789523de2a1ec0ab2873623712f\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For now, worries about the yield curve are everywhere as the end of the era of easy money hits global markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has had its worst start to the year in decades, with speculative equity strategies losing billions of dollars and cross-asset volatility surging globally.</p><p>David Hunt, chief executive of PGIM, warned last week that signals from bond markets suggest that there is a high risk of a recession in 2024, and Ken Griffin of Citadel also said the current economic outlook is the most uncertain since the 08 financial crisis.</p><p><b>2. Disruption of credit flows</b></p><p>American companies can no longer borrow at extremely low interest rates, which is the direct effect of the Federal Reserve's cooling of the hot business cycle.</p><p>But when borrowing costs soar too hard, too fast, the flow of corporate credit can be disrupted, or even completely blocked. In extreme cases, even healthy companies can lose access to financing and cause economic havoc. The most recent occurred during the pandemic, when forcing the Federal Reserve to take unprecedented accommodative actions to keep American businesses alive.</p><p>The yield differential between U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasury Bond, the most widely watched credit measure, has now risen to 1.35 percentage points from 0.8 percentage points in June 2021, indicating rising borrowing costs, but still below a key threshold for stress-1.5 percentage points.</p><p>Generally speaking,<b>When the spread exceeds 1.5 percentage points, it sends a warning signal that credit markets may be malfunctioning, making borrowing harder.</b>In the turbulent years after the global financial crisis and during the pandemic, this indicator exceeded 2 percentage points, which shows that it is a reliable red flag.</p><p>The data shows that when investment-grade credit spreads approach and exceed 2 percentage points, commercial banks' C&I loan growth almost always contracts with it. This has happened six times since 1989.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7519e9bf9b721c2c3d059f4e7fc8cf13\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For example, in January 2008, the borrowing spread of investment-grade enterprises soared above 2 percentage points for the first time in more than five years, and then remained above this level for nearly two years, followed by a long slowdown in the scale of industrial and commercial loans. Starting in November 2008, the amount of loans has declined for two consecutive years, causing historic damage to the world economy.</p><p>Most recently, credit spreads surged to more than 3.5 percentage points during the March 2020 sell-off. However, as the Federal Reserve injected liquidity into the financial system and even offered to buy corporate bonds outright, the easiest borrowing conditions ever prompted the size of loans to peak the following year.</p><p>Today, credit spreads are rising again, and corporate debt is beginning to become volatile. Investors and businesses alike will be watching to see if borrowing costs soar into risk territory, disrupting credit flows again.</p><p><b>3. Junk bond risk premium</b></p><p>During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve and other central banks took steps to give borrowers with poor balance sheets a breather. For the better part of two years, credit costs were low and defaults were virtually non-existent. But as interest rates rise, the liquidity feast is quickly coming to an end-with new speculative bond issuances this year falling to their lowest level since 2009.</p><p>For example, Carvana Co. 's recent bond issuance struggled to attract investors, and the used car company ended up paying a high 10.25% yield and bankruptcy protection clauses. Similar cases abound.</p><p>One indicator that investors pay close attention to is the additional risk premium needed to buy bonds of the lowest-rated companies relative to bonds of investment-grade companies.<b>When this premium rises, issuers most in need of financing, especially those with poor credit ratings due to weak cash flows or debt burdens above earnings, will have higher borrowing costs and harder access to financing.</b></p><p>If companies with limited capital reserves and debt maturities don't have access to the primary market, defaults and bankruptcies are more likely.</p><p>According to data compiled by foreign media, for most of the post-pandemic period, the borrowing rates of global junk-rated companies were not much higher than those of some of the largest companies (averaging only 2.4 percentage points higher in 2021, when credit conditions were the loosest ever). percentage points). This makes it very rare for businesses to go bankrupt. But now the situation has begun to change. The risk premium on junk bonds climbed to more than 3 percentage points last week. While that's below the historical average of about 4 percentage points, liquidity tightening's speed could soon spell trouble for the most vulnerable companies.</p><p><b>The data shows that since 2000, when risk premiums climbed above five percentage points and remained above that level for an extended period of time, default rates were almost always higher than historical standards.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9bf6d4a0f1bd4bedb930b2b92decbe\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Short-term money market collapse</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's massive economic stimulus package during the pandemic resulted in excess liquidity in the financial system, with banks receiving record amounts of cash in the form of reserves. Now, as the Federal Reserve begins cutting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, Wall Street is on high alert for the resulting clogging of the financial pipeline.</p><p>When the Fed begins to shrink its asset holdings by not renewing maturing securities, there will be more Treasury Bond and mortgage bonds looking for buyers in the private sector. The amount of reserves held in the banking system will decline.</p><p>No one knows how this will all end up. But after the last time the Fed implemented quantitative tightening, something bad happened at the end of 2019. Banks' reserves plummeted, causing a damaging spike in the repo rate, the cornerstone of the short-term funding market, which ultimately created liquidity problems and forced central banks to intervene in the funding market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797c50110866e8e5a534119fccb7d2ce\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since then, the Fed has implemented other tools to help reduce these liquidity risks, but things are hard to predict. About two and a half years ago, the total reserves held by thrifts at the Federal Reserve fell to about $1.4 trillion. Although banks thought $700 billion was the lowest threshold at the time, it was still enough to trigger liquidity problems for overnight loans.</p><p>Barclays estimates that,<b>This time the tipping point is around $2 trillion</b>(currently $3.3 trillion). But since all of this is speculation and there is little historical precedent, it will be a key concern for risk watchers until foreign exchange reserves reach this level.</p><p>All in all, global traders should prepare for a disruptive tightening of financial conditions across multiple sectors from bonds and credit to money markets as the Federal Reserve no longer provides liquidity to markets.</p><p>Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, said at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles:</p><p>\"Historically, we have never been able to reduce inflation by more than 2 percentage points without triggering a recession. I think it's really hard for the Fed to achieve a soft landing.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93819\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93819","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133637184","content_text":"这四个指标或是美联储能否实现经济软着陆的关键……美联储即将发现，在金融市场崩溃之前，它能将金融市场挤压到什么程度。为竭力抑制数十年来最普遍的通胀，美联储上周宣布了自2000年以来最大幅度的单次加息，同时概述了一项解除数万亿美元资产购买的计划。自2020年经济崩溃以来，这些资产购买计划让全球市场保持了充足的现金。世界其他央行预计很快也会效仿。外媒估计，在2022年内，七国集团（G7）央行的资产负债表总额将缩减约4100亿美元。然而，这一切都发生在近年来全球经济最不稳定的时期之一。俄乌战争以及随之而来的一系列制裁已经颠覆了商业。因疫情而中断的供应链变得更加紧张，企业受到了从劳动力到大宗商品价格飙升带来的冲击。现在的担忧是，各国央行能否在不扰乱资本流动、使经济陷入衰退的情况下，退出此前的巨量宽松政策。分析指出，虽然目前还没有迹象显示普遍的压力，但跨资产健康状况的一些指标正接近危险区域。所有这些都表明，随着美联储撤出其前所未有的流动性措施，投资者将面临一段坎坷的旅程。以下四个主要的警示信号。1. 倒挂的美债收益率曲线即使美联储在疫情中疯狂购买债券扭曲了债市，美国国债收益率曲线始终是华尔街最重要的经济预测指标。在正常时期当商业周期处于良好状态时，10年期债券的长债收益率将高于短债，因为投资者需要更多的补偿，以应对未来通胀将侵蚀回报的风险。如果相反的情况发生，即短期收益率高于长期收益率，则称为倒挂，表明央行最终将不得不降息以挽救经济增长。虽然并非每一次收益率曲线倒挂都导致经济下滑，但如果更多期限的美债收益率曲线出现倒挂，这个信号则出奇地准确，尤其是当两条最受关注的收益率曲线同时倒挂时。自上世纪90年代初以来，每当3个月期和2年期美债的收益率均超过10年期国债的收益率时，在接下来的6至18个月内，美国经济几乎无一例外地都会出现衰退。最近的双重倒挂发生在疫情之前，但最近收益率曲线的大幅波动让华尔街坐立不安。在3月底和4月初，2年期和10年期美债收益率曾短暂倒挂，反映出市场对美联储积极收紧政策感到焦虑，因为它有可能通过提高货币成本引发经济衰退，从而限制消费者支出以及商业活动。与此同时，3个月期美国国债和10年期美国国债收益率之间的利差一直在向相反的方向移动，暗示美国投资和消费前景依然健康，这给美联储实施其政策收紧计划提供了空间。就目前而言，随着宽松货币时代的结束冲击全球市场，对收益率曲线的担忧情绪随处可见。今年以来，以科技股为主的纳指出现了数十年来最差的开局，投机性股票策略损失了数十亿美元，全球范围内的跨资产波动性大幅上升。PGIM首席执行官大卫·亨特（David Hunt）上周警告说，债券市场的信号表明，2024年经济衰退的风险很大，Citadel的肯·格里芬（Ken Griffin）也表示，目前经济前景是自08年金融危机以来最不确定的。2. 信贷流动的中断美国企业已经不能再以极低的利率借款，而这正是美联储为炙热的商业周期降温的直接作用。但是，当借贷成本飙升得太厉害、太快时，企业信贷的流动可能会受到干扰，甚至完全受阻。在极端情况下，即使是健康的公司也可能会失去融资渠道从而造成经济浩劫。最近一次发生在疫情期间，当时迫使美联储采取前所未有的宽松行动来维持美国企业的生存。美国投资级公司债与国债之间的收益率之差是最广泛关注的信用指标，目前这一利差已经从2021年6月的0.8个百分点上升到1.35个百分点，表明借款成本上升，但仍然低于压力的一个关键门槛——1.5个百分点。通常来说，当利差超过1.5个百分点时，就会发出信贷市场可能失灵的警告信号，使借贷变得更加困难。在全球金融危机后的动荡年份和疫情期间，这一指标曾突破2个百分点，可见其是一个可靠的危险信号。数据显示，当投资级信贷息差接近并超过2个百分点时，商业银行的工商业贷款增长几乎总是会随之收缩。自1989年以来，这种情况出现过6次。例如，在2008年1月，投资级企业的借贷利差5年多来第一次飙升到2个百分点以上，此后在这一水平之上维持了近两年，随后出现了工商业贷款规模的长期放缓。从2008年11月开始，贷款额连续两年下降，给世界经济造成了历史性的损害。最近，在2020年3月的抛售中，信贷利差飙升至逾3.5个百分点。然而，随着美联储向金融体系注入流动性，甚至提出直接购买公司债券，有史以来最宽松的借贷条件在次年促使贷款规模达到顶峰。如今，信贷利差重新上升，公司债务也开始变得波动。投资者和企业都将关注借贷成本是否会飙升至风险区间，从而再次扰乱信贷流动。3.垃圾债风险溢价在疫情期间，美联储和其他央行采取措施，让资产负债表状况不佳的借款人获得了喘息的机会。在两年的大部分时间里，信贷成本低，违约几乎不存在。但随着利率上升，流动性盛宴正迅速结束——今年新发行的投机性债券发行量降至2009年以来的最低水平。举例来说，Carvana Co.最近发行的债券难以吸引投资者，这家二手车公司最终支付了10.25%的高收益率以及破产保护条款，类似的案例比比皆是。投资者密切关注的一个指标是，在购买最低评级公司的债券时，相对于投资级公司的债券所需要的额外风险溢价。当这一溢价上升时，最需要融资的发行者，尤其是那些因现金流疲弱或债务负担高于收益而导致信用评级较差的发行者，借贷成本会更高，也更难获得融资。如果那些资金储备有限、债务即将到期的公司无法进入一级市场，那么违约和破产的可能性就更大。根据外媒汇编的数据，在疫情后的大部分时间里，全球垃圾级公司的借款利率并不比一些最大的公司高多少（在信贷条件是有史以来最宽松的2021年平均仅高出2.4个百分点）。这使得企业破产的情况非常罕见。但目前情况已经开始转变。垃圾债的风险溢价上周攀升至3个百分点以上。虽然这低于约4个百分点的历史平均水平，但流动性收紧的速度可能很快会给最脆弱的公司带来麻烦。数据显示，自2000年以来，当风险溢价攀升至5个百分点以上，并在较长一段时间内保持在这一水平之上时，违约率几乎总是高于历史标准。4. 短期货币市场崩溃美联储在疫情期间的大规模经济刺激计划导致金融系统流动性过剩，银行以储备金的形式获得了创纪录的现金。现在，随着美联储开始削减其近9万亿美元的资产负债表，华尔街对由此导致的金融管道堵塞保持高度警惕。当美联储开始通过不续购到期证券来缩减资产持有量时，将会有更多的国债和抵押贷款债券在私营部门寻找买家。银行系统中持有的准备金数量将会下降。没有人知道这一切最终将如何收场。但上一次美联储实施量化紧缩后，2019年底糟糕的事情发生了。银行的准备金急剧下降，导致作为短期融资市场的基石的回购利率出现破坏性的飙升，最终造成了流动性问题，迫使央行干预融资市场。此后，美联储实施了其他工具来帮助降低这些流动性风险，但世事难料。大约两年半前，储蓄机构在美联储持有的总准备金降至1.4万亿美元左右。尽管当时银行认为7000亿美元是最低的门槛，但这仍足以引发隔夜贷款的流动性问题。巴克莱银行估计，这一次的临界点在2万亿美元左右（目前为3.3万亿美元）。但由于所有这些都是猜测，并没有什么历史先例，因此在外汇储备达到这一水平之前，它将成为风险观察人士关注的一个关键问题。总而言之，随着美联储不再向市场提供流动性，从债券、信贷到货币市场等多个领域的金融状况都将出现破坏性紧缩，全球交易员应该为此做好准备。古根海姆集团（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特·迈纳德（Scott Minerd）在洛杉矶举行的米尔肯研究所全球会议上表示：“历史上，我们从未能在不引发衰退的情况下将通胀率降低超过2个百分点。我认为，美联储真的很难实现软着陆。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065238756,"gmtCreate":1652194887375,"gmtModify":1676535050035,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","name":"CalvinChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573814781456643","authorIdStr":"3573814781456643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065238756","repostId":"2234694131","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2234694131","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652190434,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2234694131?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 21:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed Barkin: Fighting inflation may not necessarily lead to a recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234694131","media":"市场资讯","summary":"美国里士满联邦储备银行行长托马斯-巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）称，美联储将把利率提高到既不会刺激也不会抑制需求的水平，然后决定是否必须再进一步。“进入中性利率区间之后，我们可以再判断通胀是否仍","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a level that will neither stimulate nor curb demand, and then decide whether it must go further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca907fafe273a022faf395b90b49a8b8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>\"After entering the neutral interest rate range, we can tell whether inflation is still requiring us to put the brakes on the economy at a level,\" Barkin said in prepared remarks to the Cecil County Chamber of Commerce in Maryland. He estimated the neutral rate to be between 2% and 3%.</p><p>Barkin said, \"You may ask whether this path requires a recession like Volcker's. Not necessarily. At 83 basis points, we are still far from the interest rate level that constrains the economy.\"</p><p>\"Demand conditions are strong and look set to remain, benefiting from good corporate and personal balance sheets, the need to replenish low inventories, and the abundance of state funding,\" Barkin added.</p><p>\"Supply chains are already overwhelmed and suppliers are struggling to bring them back into balance,\" he said, adding: \"Inflation continues to be high and wide-ranging.\"</p><p>Barkin doesn't have a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Barkin: Fighting inflation may not necessarily lead to a recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Barkin: Fighting inflation may not necessarily lead to a recession\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-10 21:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a level that will neither stimulate nor curb demand, and then decide whether it must go further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca907fafe273a022faf395b90b49a8b8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>\"After entering the neutral interest rate range, we can tell whether inflation is still requiring us to put the brakes on the economy at a level,\" Barkin said in prepared remarks to the Cecil County Chamber of Commerce in Maryland. He estimated the neutral rate to be between 2% and 3%.</p><p>Barkin said, \"You may ask whether this path requires a recession like Volcker's. Not necessarily. At 83 basis points, we are still far from the interest rate level that constrains the economy.\"</p><p>\"Demand conditions are strong and look set to remain, benefiting from good corporate and personal balance sheets, the need to replenish low inventories, and the abundance of state funding,\" Barkin added.</p><p>\"Supply chains are already overwhelmed and suppliers are struggling to bring them back into balance,\" he said, adding: \"Inflation continues to be high and wide-ranging.\"</p><p>Barkin doesn't have a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-10/doc-imcwipii9131890.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca907fafe273a022faf395b90b49a8b8","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-10/doc-imcwipii9131890.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2234694131","content_text":"美国里士满联邦储备银行行长托马斯-巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）称，美联储将把利率提高到既不会刺激也不会抑制需求的水平，然后决定是否必须再进一步。“进入中性利率区间之后，我们可以再判断通胀是否仍然在要求我们对经济踩刹车的水平，” 巴尔金在马里兰州塞西尔县商会的有准备发言中表示。他估计中性利率在2%至3%之间。巴尔金说，“你可能会问，这条道路是否需要像沃尔克那样的衰退。不一定。在83个基点，我们距离约束经济的利率水平还很远。”“受益于良好的企业和个人资产负债表，补充低库存的需求，以及州政府资金充裕，需求状况强劲而且看起来会保持如此，”巴尔金补充道。他表示，“供应链已经不堪重负，供应商正在艰难地使它们恢复平衡。”他补充说：“通胀率持续在高位且范围广泛。”巴尔金今年在联邦公开市场委员会没有投票权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":1,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065238537,"gmtCreate":1652194867329,"gmtModify":1676535050019,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","name":"CalvinChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573814781456643","authorIdStr":"3573814781456643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065238537","repostId":"2234694131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069185499,"gmtCreate":1651247888654,"gmtModify":1676534878398,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","name":"CalvinChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573814781456643","authorIdStr":"3573814781456643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069185499","repostId":"1112519241","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112519241","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"外号猫叔，父亲&丈夫&儿子。硅谷科技数码，美国文化政治。个人写作平台，均为原创文章。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"猫叔在硅谷","id":"1099700164","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df026e60f93493cbd17dfbe71ffaf74"},"pubTimestamp":1651241401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112519241?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-29 22:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Disney is bitter: I can't even talk if I don't want to","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112519241","media":"猫叔在硅谷","summary":"中国有句老话，“闷声大发财”。但全球娱乐巨头迪士尼最近却公开叫板佛罗里达州政府，引发了政治报复，更陷入了一场政治漩涡。不准提同性恋法案美国佛罗里达州州长德桑蒂斯(RonDeSantis)本周正式签署该","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There is an old Chinese saying, \"Make a fortune with a silent voice\". But global entertainment giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>Recently, it publicly challenged the Florida government, which triggered political revenge and fell into a political whirlpool.</p><p><b>No mention of the gay bill</b></p><p>Florida Governor DeSantis (RonDeSantis) officially signed a bill passed by the state's legislature this week, canceling Disney's semi-autonomy in Disney World Orlando and taking back the development zone privileges that Disney has enjoyed here for half a century. The Republicans in power in Sunshine State have made no secret of the political intention of this move: this is a retaliatory measure against Disney's previous public involvement in Florida politics and challenging the Republican government in the state.</p><p>In just one month, the close political and business relationship between Florida and Disney, which lasted for half a century, has broken down. What the hell is going on here? This also starts with a controversial anti-LGBTQ bill in the state.</p><p>At the end of February and the beginning of March this year, the Florida House of Representatives and the Senate successively passed bill AB1557/SB 1834, namely the ParentalRightsinEducation, which prohibits the classroom discussion of sexual orientation and sexual identity in the third grade and below of primary schools, and at the same time prohibits the teaching of sexual orientation and sexual identity in schools in any way that is \"inconsistent with age and student development\".</p><p>In polarized American politics, LGBTQ has always been the most controversial issue. This bill in Florida quickly ignited the anger of liberals and became the focus of attention across the United States. From the federal government to the state government, Democrats and Republicans have once again fought fiercely.</p><p>In February this year, when the bill was still in the legislative process in Florida, it had already caused fierce controversy across the United States. On February 8, US President Biden publicly condemned this \"hateful\" bill and promised that the federal government would continue to support the LGBTQ community and protect their legal rights. However, the White House has no right to interfere with Florida's legislative rights, and can only seek veto through judicial channels.</p><p>Liberals call this bill the \"Don't Say Gay Bill\", arguing that it not only blatantly discriminates against same-sex people, but also violates * rights. However, conservatives believe that parents have the right to decide the content of their children's education, and it is even more necessary to avoid children being guided by schools. Both factions believe that they represent public opinion, and different poll settings have also yielded diametrically opposite results.</p><p>Florida, a former swing state, is now crimson, with the Republican Party occupying more than 60% of the seats in the Senate and House of Representatives. Therefore, despite strong resistance from Democrats and angry protests from liberals, Republicans forced the bill, which was signed by Republican Governor DeSantis on March 28, and will eventually be officially passed on July 1.</p><p>Although LGBTQ rights organizations immediately filed a lawsuit against this law in federal court, the judge who heard this lawsuit was a hard-line conservative judge nominated by former President Trump, who had repeatedly opposed the legalization of same-sex marriage before. Given that the 11th Court of Appeals and the Supreme Court are both conservative majorities, the prospects for this lawsuit are not optimistic.</p><p><b>Publicly pressure Disney to take a position</b></p><p>The background of this disputed law is not complicated. So why does a global entertainment giant like Disney touch this hot potato and get involved in the political struggle between the two factions? Why do they choose to side with liberals and publicly offend the Republicans in power in Florida?</p><p>Since late February, former Disney executives, core employees, important shareholders and public opinion have been putting pressure, calling on Disney to stand up and put pressure to stop this bill in Florida, and even threatened to boycott Disney products.</p><p>Why do you have to force Disney to stand in line? Disney is of great significance to the Florida economy. They are the largest employer in Florida, employing nearly 80,000 employees in the state. Disney World in Orlando is a business card for Florida's investment attraction and tourism industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e533b569297335b72da5e2e7a7a640bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Disney has only two theme parks in the United States and only six parks around the world; In the chronological order of opening, they are Los Angeles, Orlando, Tokyo, Paris, Hong Kong and Shanghai. Designed by founder Walter Disney himself before his death, Disney World in Orlando officially opened in 1971.</p><p>This is the largest Disneyland in the world. Several parks cover an area of 122 square kilometers, even more than the area of two Manhattan, which is already equivalent to a small city. It is also the largest Disneyland in the world, with 58 million tourists every year before the epidemic. In 2021, Disney World will contribute US $780 million in tax revenue to Florida, not to mention the huge traffic and consumption it will bring to the local tourism industry.</p><p>In addition, what makes critics even more angry is that Disney is also the big money owner to promote Republican lawmakers in Florida. According to local media reports in Orlando at the end of February, Disney donated $1 million to Florida Republicans in 2020, including $50,000 to Governor DeSantis.</p><p>For the first more than a month, Disney CEO BobChapek remained silent on this matter, refusing to respond to outside questions and prevent the company from getting involved in the political whirlpool. Before he took over as CEO of Disney, he was in charge of Disney's theme park business for a long time and had close ties with Florida dignitaries.</p><p><b>Inside and outside pressure is increasing day by day</b></p><p>But the development of events clearly exceeded Chapek's expectations. At the end of February, former Disney chairman and CEO Robert Iger retweeted Biden's tweet, publicly expressing his opposition to the Florida LGBTQ bill. Iger said he \"fully supports President Biden. This bill, if passed, will put vulnerable LGBTQ young people at risk.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72261a352756c0ac6eaccc36d2e4f739\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Iger has stepped down as Disney CEO in early 2020 and as Disney chairman at the end of last year. Although this watch is purely personal, it has nothing to do with Disney; However, Iger has served as the CEO of Disney for 15 years, and he still has a lot of influence in the American entertainment and business circles, and has a great appeal to Disney employees. His statement also increased the pressure of public opinion in Chapek to a certain extent.</p><p>Iger is clearly open-minded on social issues. He publicly donated money to support Hillary Clinton in 2016, and later publicly opposed the Trump administration because of climate policy. In 2020, he even seriously considered running for president as a Democratic Party, but decided to give up because of many factors such as family opposition and bleak prospects.</p><p>In addition to the meritorious CEO, the successors of the Disney family also stood up. Third-generation members Abigail Disney and Roy P. Disney have publicly expressed their disappointment with Disney's support for Florida Republicans, and they have asked Disney to make its position clear on the issue of Florida's anti-LGBTQ bill. Their grandfather is the co-founder of Disney, and their father once served as the vice chairman of Disney.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fef4ec914066b24595c756cf735dd8f1\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CharleeCorraDisney, a fourth-generation member of the Disney family, then came out directly and announced that she was transgender. She personally donated $250,000 to LGBTQ rights organizations to condemn this bill in Florida. Although the Disney family is not involved in the company's operations and holds less than 3% of the shares, it still has public influence on Disney.</p><p>After more than a month of silence, Chapek finally couldn't sit still. He issued an internal email on March 7 explaining that Disney would stand with LGBTQ employees, but the company was unwilling to publicly express its position on this bill, hoping to get the understanding of employees. He promised that Disney would strive to create a more inclusive world through exciting content creation.</p><p>However, Chapek's evasive attitude made the company's employees even more dissatisfied. Many core content creation employees also issued open letters asking Disney to condemn Florida's anti-LGBTQ bill. These include DanaTerrace, creator of The Owl House, BenjaminSiemon, creator of DuckTales, Bill Motz, creator of The GhostandMollyMcGee, and so on. Although the business of the Disney Empire is quite diverse, the content production department is Disney's real core business, and these creators are the core competitiveness that Disney values most.</p><p>In the end, what overwhelmed Chapek and made him decide to give up his hands-off attitude was the pressure of Pixar and Marvel Comics. On March 9, Pixar Studios issued a statement supporting the position of LGBTQ employees; On March 16, Marvel Studios announced that it condemned \"all bills that violate the basic human rights of LGBTQ people\". What's more, Disney is also facing an employee defection. Dissatisfied with the company's silence, many Disney employees plan to go on a collective strike for 15 minutes on March 16th, and then go on a general strike on March 22nd.</p><p><b>Publicly condemn retaliation</b></p><p>Faced with public anger and threats of strike within the company, Chapek finally realized that he had no choice. If you continue to remain silent, you may not only betray your relatives in the company, but even lose the trust of the board of directors. In addition, as the big money owner of the Republican Party of Florida, Disney has also become the target of criticism by American liberals.</p><p>On March 28, the day Florida Governor DeSantis signed the \"No Mention of Homosexuality Act\", Disney finally made an unprecedented change in attitude, vehemently condemning Florida's bill, saying that \"this bill should not be passed at all, nor should it be signed.\" Disney announced a $5 million donation to LGBTQ rights organizations to support them through lawsuits to prevent this law from taking effect.</p><p>This attitude of openly standing in sides may have temporarily eased Chapek's tremendous pressure from inside and outside the company, but it completely angered the Republican politicians who dominated Florida. Although they have all received political donations from Disney, it is obviously more important to maintain their staunch conservative image at the moment.</p><p>Florida Governor DeSantis publicly hit back more fiercely at Disney as \"WokeDisney\". \"It is the interests of our voters that govern Florida, not those business executives in California (Disney is headquartered in Los Angeles). If Disney wants to start a war, then they have chosen the wrong person.\" They then began to arrange punitive measures against Disney.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5dc6d756be13445ca1f3ffc399b1fe4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Florida Republicans intend to use Disney as a knife, which also has the significance of setting chickens and monkeys. In the past few years, Florida Republicans have been at the forefront of the struggle between the left and right factions in the United States and have become the base camp of conservatives; DeSantis is actively playing the role of a new generation of leaders in the Republican Party and is regarded as the most likely successor to Trump. A high-profile suppression of Disney will help him raise his popularity among conservative voters.</p><p>How to punish Disney? In order to invite Disney to build a theme park, Florida granted Disney a privilege to set up a special development zone for them in the late 1960s. In this development zone, Disney is responsible for infrastructure such as hydropower, roads, etc., and has the right to operate and manage various projects without the approval of the local government. Just like a local government, Disney also has the right to issue tax-free municipal bonds.</p><p>But with DeSantis' signing, it took just three weeks for Florida Republicans to revoke Disney's half-century executive privilege in Oakland. No more special treatment, Disney has to face the same regulatory environment as peers such as UniversalStudios, Legoland and SeaWorld.</p><p>However, behind the government-enterprise conflict between Disney and Florida, there may be a loss-loss. Disney has lost its special discount in Florida, and its future investment and growth prospects in Florida will also face doubts. The Florida government's public retaliation against Disney will also damage their pro-business image, and the local government will have to undertake $1 billion in outstanding debts.</p><p>Even for DeSantis himself, this high-profile gesture of suppressing the state's largest employer is a blessing or a curse. In 2018, DeSantis won the Florida gubernatorial election by a very narrow margin, only 34,000 votes more than the Democratic candidate. He is about to face the * election this year, and how 80,000 Disney employees will vote at that time will become a big suspense affecting the election results.</p><p><b>It is difficult for enterprises to stay out of it</b></p><p>In fact, Disney is not the only giant enterprise involved in the political vortex in recent years. In the past few years, as American society has become increasingly divided and the struggle between the two factions has become increasingly fierce, it has become increasingly difficult for corporate giants to stay out of it, either actively or passively involved. Those giant enterprises that actively maintain a good public image therefore bear the expectations from employees and users and assume the responsibility of promoting social progress.</p><p>As America's most influential gay business leader,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>CEO Cook immediately expressed his position in response to the Florida bill. He was proud of his LGBTQ status and was deeply worried about the introduction of anti-LBGTQ laws in many places across the United States, especially laws targeting underage LGBTQ people. Cook promised that he and Apple would firmly support the rights protection of the LGBTQ community.</p><p>Apple is the most active corporate member of the same-sex rights protection organization HRC (Disney Donation Object). One of Apple's lobbying agendas in the US Congress is anti-racial discrimination. Moreover, Apple may be the most direct giant company in the United States when it comes to promoting LGBTQ rights protection.</p><p>As early as 2014, Cook directly pressured the governor of Arizona to veto a bill that discriminated against same-sex people, SB1062 (allowing denial of service to same-sex people on the grounds of religious belief), otherwise Apple would cancel its $1 billion sapphire glass factory investment project in the state. Under the opposition of many companies and industry organizations such as Apple, Arizona Governor JanBrewer finally vetoed this bill.</p><p>During Trump's four years in office, Silicon Valley technology giants have stood up again and again, publicly criticizing his policies: whether it is limiting the influx of immigrants or withdrawing from global action on climate change. Those giant enterprises involved in government law enforcement cooperation projects are facing pressure from their own employees. In 2018 and 2019,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>After strong resistance from employees, they were forced to abandon the U.S. Department of Defense's drone AI project and the Border Enforcement Agency's cloud computing contract.</p><p>Sports goods giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>The company is perhaps the most politically distinct American corporate giant. In the past ten years, they have always stood at the forefront of the anti-racial discrimination movement in the United States, even at the expense of publicly contradicting the President of the United States. In 2016, ColinKaepernick, a major league football player, became the focus of attention by kneeling on the court to express his dissatisfaction with racial discrimination and police brutality in the United States. The move was strongly criticized by then-President Trump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99efc5428778408a0ae80dfb5f857d3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Kaepernick ended his career, because no team was willing to sign him, which caused great controversy. However, under tremendous pressure from the White House and the conservative camp, Nike signed Kaepernick as the brand endorsement in 2018, and filmed an anti-racial advertisement \"Stick to the faith, even if you sacrifice everything\", which caused a sensation and huge controversy in the United States.</p><p>Perhaps this public political siding is Nike's most risky investment. At least from the perspective of revenue in the US market, Nike still maintains steady growth in the US. In 2018, Nike's revenue in the U.S. market was US $15.3 billion, compared with US $16 billion in 2019 before the epidemic, and increased to US $17.36 billion last year.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney is bitter: I can't even talk if I don't want to</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney is bitter: I can't even talk if I don't want to\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1099700164\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df026e60f93493cbd17dfbe71ffaf74);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">猫叔在硅谷 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-29 22:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There is an old Chinese saying, \"Make a fortune with a silent voice\". But global entertainment giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>Recently, it publicly challenged the Florida government, which triggered political revenge and fell into a political whirlpool.</p><p><b>No mention of the gay bill</b></p><p>Florida Governor DeSantis (RonDeSantis) officially signed a bill passed by the state's legislature this week, canceling Disney's semi-autonomy in Disney World Orlando and taking back the development zone privileges that Disney has enjoyed here for half a century. The Republicans in power in Sunshine State have made no secret of the political intention of this move: this is a retaliatory measure against Disney's previous public involvement in Florida politics and challenging the Republican government in the state.</p><p>In just one month, the close political and business relationship between Florida and Disney, which lasted for half a century, has broken down. What the hell is going on here? This also starts with a controversial anti-LGBTQ bill in the state.</p><p>At the end of February and the beginning of March this year, the Florida House of Representatives and the Senate successively passed bill AB1557/SB 1834, namely the ParentalRightsinEducation, which prohibits the classroom discussion of sexual orientation and sexual identity in the third grade and below of primary schools, and at the same time prohibits the teaching of sexual orientation and sexual identity in schools in any way that is \"inconsistent with age and student development\".</p><p>In polarized American politics, LGBTQ has always been the most controversial issue. This bill in Florida quickly ignited the anger of liberals and became the focus of attention across the United States. From the federal government to the state government, Democrats and Republicans have once again fought fiercely.</p><p>In February this year, when the bill was still in the legislative process in Florida, it had already caused fierce controversy across the United States. On February 8, US President Biden publicly condemned this \"hateful\" bill and promised that the federal government would continue to support the LGBTQ community and protect their legal rights. However, the White House has no right to interfere with Florida's legislative rights, and can only seek veto through judicial channels.</p><p>Liberals call this bill the \"Don't Say Gay Bill\", arguing that it not only blatantly discriminates against same-sex people, but also violates * rights. However, conservatives believe that parents have the right to decide the content of their children's education, and it is even more necessary to avoid children being guided by schools. Both factions believe that they represent public opinion, and different poll settings have also yielded diametrically opposite results.</p><p>Florida, a former swing state, is now crimson, with the Republican Party occupying more than 60% of the seats in the Senate and House of Representatives. Therefore, despite strong resistance from Democrats and angry protests from liberals, Republicans forced the bill, which was signed by Republican Governor DeSantis on March 28, and will eventually be officially passed on July 1.</p><p>Although LGBTQ rights organizations immediately filed a lawsuit against this law in federal court, the judge who heard this lawsuit was a hard-line conservative judge nominated by former President Trump, who had repeatedly opposed the legalization of same-sex marriage before. Given that the 11th Court of Appeals and the Supreme Court are both conservative majorities, the prospects for this lawsuit are not optimistic.</p><p><b>Publicly pressure Disney to take a position</b></p><p>The background of this disputed law is not complicated. So why does a global entertainment giant like Disney touch this hot potato and get involved in the political struggle between the two factions? Why do they choose to side with liberals and publicly offend the Republicans in power in Florida?</p><p>Since late February, former Disney executives, core employees, important shareholders and public opinion have been putting pressure, calling on Disney to stand up and put pressure to stop this bill in Florida, and even threatened to boycott Disney products.</p><p>Why do you have to force Disney to stand in line? Disney is of great significance to the Florida economy. They are the largest employer in Florida, employing nearly 80,000 employees in the state. Disney World in Orlando is a business card for Florida's investment attraction and tourism industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e533b569297335b72da5e2e7a7a640bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Disney has only two theme parks in the United States and only six parks around the world; In the chronological order of opening, they are Los Angeles, Orlando, Tokyo, Paris, Hong Kong and Shanghai. Designed by founder Walter Disney himself before his death, Disney World in Orlando officially opened in 1971.</p><p>This is the largest Disneyland in the world. Several parks cover an area of 122 square kilometers, even more than the area of two Manhattan, which is already equivalent to a small city. It is also the largest Disneyland in the world, with 58 million tourists every year before the epidemic. In 2021, Disney World will contribute US $780 million in tax revenue to Florida, not to mention the huge traffic and consumption it will bring to the local tourism industry.</p><p>In addition, what makes critics even more angry is that Disney is also the big money owner to promote Republican lawmakers in Florida. According to local media reports in Orlando at the end of February, Disney donated $1 million to Florida Republicans in 2020, including $50,000 to Governor DeSantis.</p><p>For the first more than a month, Disney CEO BobChapek remained silent on this matter, refusing to respond to outside questions and prevent the company from getting involved in the political whirlpool. Before he took over as CEO of Disney, he was in charge of Disney's theme park business for a long time and had close ties with Florida dignitaries.</p><p><b>Inside and outside pressure is increasing day by day</b></p><p>But the development of events clearly exceeded Chapek's expectations. At the end of February, former Disney chairman and CEO Robert Iger retweeted Biden's tweet, publicly expressing his opposition to the Florida LGBTQ bill. Iger said he \"fully supports President Biden. This bill, if passed, will put vulnerable LGBTQ young people at risk.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72261a352756c0ac6eaccc36d2e4f739\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Iger has stepped down as Disney CEO in early 2020 and as Disney chairman at the end of last year. Although this watch is purely personal, it has nothing to do with Disney; However, Iger has served as the CEO of Disney for 15 years, and he still has a lot of influence in the American entertainment and business circles, and has a great appeal to Disney employees. His statement also increased the pressure of public opinion in Chapek to a certain extent.</p><p>Iger is clearly open-minded on social issues. He publicly donated money to support Hillary Clinton in 2016, and later publicly opposed the Trump administration because of climate policy. In 2020, he even seriously considered running for president as a Democratic Party, but decided to give up because of many factors such as family opposition and bleak prospects.</p><p>In addition to the meritorious CEO, the successors of the Disney family also stood up. Third-generation members Abigail Disney and Roy P. Disney have publicly expressed their disappointment with Disney's support for Florida Republicans, and they have asked Disney to make its position clear on the issue of Florida's anti-LGBTQ bill. Their grandfather is the co-founder of Disney, and their father once served as the vice chairman of Disney.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fef4ec914066b24595c756cf735dd8f1\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CharleeCorraDisney, a fourth-generation member of the Disney family, then came out directly and announced that she was transgender. She personally donated $250,000 to LGBTQ rights organizations to condemn this bill in Florida. Although the Disney family is not involved in the company's operations and holds less than 3% of the shares, it still has public influence on Disney.</p><p>After more than a month of silence, Chapek finally couldn't sit still. He issued an internal email on March 7 explaining that Disney would stand with LGBTQ employees, but the company was unwilling to publicly express its position on this bill, hoping to get the understanding of employees. He promised that Disney would strive to create a more inclusive world through exciting content creation.</p><p>However, Chapek's evasive attitude made the company's employees even more dissatisfied. Many core content creation employees also issued open letters asking Disney to condemn Florida's anti-LGBTQ bill. These include DanaTerrace, creator of The Owl House, BenjaminSiemon, creator of DuckTales, Bill Motz, creator of The GhostandMollyMcGee, and so on. Although the business of the Disney Empire is quite diverse, the content production department is Disney's real core business, and these creators are the core competitiveness that Disney values most.</p><p>In the end, what overwhelmed Chapek and made him decide to give up his hands-off attitude was the pressure of Pixar and Marvel Comics. On March 9, Pixar Studios issued a statement supporting the position of LGBTQ employees; On March 16, Marvel Studios announced that it condemned \"all bills that violate the basic human rights of LGBTQ people\". What's more, Disney is also facing an employee defection. Dissatisfied with the company's silence, many Disney employees plan to go on a collective strike for 15 minutes on March 16th, and then go on a general strike on March 22nd.</p><p><b>Publicly condemn retaliation</b></p><p>Faced with public anger and threats of strike within the company, Chapek finally realized that he had no choice. If you continue to remain silent, you may not only betray your relatives in the company, but even lose the trust of the board of directors. In addition, as the big money owner of the Republican Party of Florida, Disney has also become the target of criticism by American liberals.</p><p>On March 28, the day Florida Governor DeSantis signed the \"No Mention of Homosexuality Act\", Disney finally made an unprecedented change in attitude, vehemently condemning Florida's bill, saying that \"this bill should not be passed at all, nor should it be signed.\" Disney announced a $5 million donation to LGBTQ rights organizations to support them through lawsuits to prevent this law from taking effect.</p><p>This attitude of openly standing in sides may have temporarily eased Chapek's tremendous pressure from inside and outside the company, but it completely angered the Republican politicians who dominated Florida. Although they have all received political donations from Disney, it is obviously more important to maintain their staunch conservative image at the moment.</p><p>Florida Governor DeSantis publicly hit back more fiercely at Disney as \"WokeDisney\". \"It is the interests of our voters that govern Florida, not those business executives in California (Disney is headquartered in Los Angeles). If Disney wants to start a war, then they have chosen the wrong person.\" They then began to arrange punitive measures against Disney.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5dc6d756be13445ca1f3ffc399b1fe4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Florida Republicans intend to use Disney as a knife, which also has the significance of setting chickens and monkeys. In the past few years, Florida Republicans have been at the forefront of the struggle between the left and right factions in the United States and have become the base camp of conservatives; DeSantis is actively playing the role of a new generation of leaders in the Republican Party and is regarded as the most likely successor to Trump. A high-profile suppression of Disney will help him raise his popularity among conservative voters.</p><p>How to punish Disney? In order to invite Disney to build a theme park, Florida granted Disney a privilege to set up a special development zone for them in the late 1960s. In this development zone, Disney is responsible for infrastructure such as hydropower, roads, etc., and has the right to operate and manage various projects without the approval of the local government. Just like a local government, Disney also has the right to issue tax-free municipal bonds.</p><p>But with DeSantis' signing, it took just three weeks for Florida Republicans to revoke Disney's half-century executive privilege in Oakland. No more special treatment, Disney has to face the same regulatory environment as peers such as UniversalStudios, Legoland and SeaWorld.</p><p>However, behind the government-enterprise conflict between Disney and Florida, there may be a loss-loss. Disney has lost its special discount in Florida, and its future investment and growth prospects in Florida will also face doubts. The Florida government's public retaliation against Disney will also damage their pro-business image, and the local government will have to undertake $1 billion in outstanding debts.</p><p>Even for DeSantis himself, this high-profile gesture of suppressing the state's largest employer is a blessing or a curse. In 2018, DeSantis won the Florida gubernatorial election by a very narrow margin, only 34,000 votes more than the Democratic candidate. He is about to face the * election this year, and how 80,000 Disney employees will vote at that time will become a big suspense affecting the election results.</p><p><b>It is difficult for enterprises to stay out of it</b></p><p>In fact, Disney is not the only giant enterprise involved in the political vortex in recent years. In the past few years, as American society has become increasingly divided and the struggle between the two factions has become increasingly fierce, it has become increasingly difficult for corporate giants to stay out of it, either actively or passively involved. Those giant enterprises that actively maintain a good public image therefore bear the expectations from employees and users and assume the responsibility of promoting social progress.</p><p>As America's most influential gay business leader,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>CEO Cook immediately expressed his position in response to the Florida bill. He was proud of his LGBTQ status and was deeply worried about the introduction of anti-LBGTQ laws in many places across the United States, especially laws targeting underage LGBTQ people. Cook promised that he and Apple would firmly support the rights protection of the LGBTQ community.</p><p>Apple is the most active corporate member of the same-sex rights protection organization HRC (Disney Donation Object). One of Apple's lobbying agendas in the US Congress is anti-racial discrimination. Moreover, Apple may be the most direct giant company in the United States when it comes to promoting LGBTQ rights protection.</p><p>As early as 2014, Cook directly pressured the governor of Arizona to veto a bill that discriminated against same-sex people, SB1062 (allowing denial of service to same-sex people on the grounds of religious belief), otherwise Apple would cancel its $1 billion sapphire glass factory investment project in the state. Under the opposition of many companies and industry organizations such as Apple, Arizona Governor JanBrewer finally vetoed this bill.</p><p>During Trump's four years in office, Silicon Valley technology giants have stood up again and again, publicly criticizing his policies: whether it is limiting the influx of immigrants or withdrawing from global action on climate change. Those giant enterprises involved in government law enforcement cooperation projects are facing pressure from their own employees. In 2018 and 2019,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>After strong resistance from employees, they were forced to abandon the U.S. Department of Defense's drone AI project and the Border Enforcement Agency's cloud computing contract.</p><p>Sports goods giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>The company is perhaps the most politically distinct American corporate giant. In the past ten years, they have always stood at the forefront of the anti-racial discrimination movement in the United States, even at the expense of publicly contradicting the President of the United States. In 2016, ColinKaepernick, a major league football player, became the focus of attention by kneeling on the court to express his dissatisfaction with racial discrimination and police brutality in the United States. The move was strongly criticized by then-President Trump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99efc5428778408a0ae80dfb5f857d3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Kaepernick ended his career, because no team was willing to sign him, which caused great controversy. However, under tremendous pressure from the White House and the conservative camp, Nike signed Kaepernick as the brand endorsement in 2018, and filmed an anti-racial advertisement \"Stick to the faith, even if you sacrifice everything\", which caused a sensation and huge controversy in the United States.</p><p>Perhaps this public political siding is Nike's most risky investment. At least from the perspective of revenue in the US market, Nike still maintains steady growth in the US. In 2018, Nike's revenue in the U.S. market was US $15.3 billion, compared with US $16 billion in 2019 before the epidemic, and increased to US $17.36 billion last year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a5c9ee763bdd068795172812d82227","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112519241","content_text":"中国有句老话，“闷声大发财”。但全球娱乐巨头迪士尼最近却公开叫板佛罗里达州政府，引发了政治报复，更陷入了一场政治漩涡。不准提同性恋法案美国佛罗里达州州长德桑蒂斯(RonDeSantis)本周正式签署该州议会通过的法案，取消迪士尼在奥兰多迪士尼世界的半自治权，收回迪士尼在这里享受了半个世纪的开发区特权。在阳光州执政的共和党人毫不掩饰此举的政治意图：这就是对迪士尼此前公开介入佛罗里达政治，挑战该州共和党政府的报复措施。短短一个月时间，佛罗里达与迪士尼延续半个世纪的密切政商关系就已经破裂。这究竟是怎么一回事？这还要从该州一项反LGBTQ人群的争议法案说起。今年2月底和3月初，佛罗里达众议院和参议院先后通过AB1557/SB 1834法案，即《学校教育的家长权利法案》(ParentalRightsinEducation)，禁止小学三年级及以下的学校课堂讨论关于性取向和性认同的话题，同时禁止在学校以“任何与年龄以及学生发育不相符”的方式教授性取向与性认同内容。在两极分化的美国政治中，LGBTQ从来都是争议最大的议题。佛罗里达这一法案迅速点燃了自由派的怒火，成为了全美的关注焦点。从联邦政府到州政府，民主党和共和党再次展开了激烈争斗。今年2月，该法案还在佛州立法程序的时候，就已经引发了全美国的激烈争议。2月8日，美国总统拜登公开谴责这一“可恶”法案，承诺联邦政府会继续支持LGBTQ群体，保护他们的合法权利。但白宫无权干涉佛州的立法权利，只有走司法渠道寻求否决。自由派将该法案称为“不准提同性恋法案”(Don’tSayGayBill)，认为该法案不仅公然歧视同性人群，更是侵犯了言论自由。但保守派认为，家长有权决定孩子的教育内容，更有必要避免儿童受到学校的引导。两派都认为自己代表着民意，不同的民调设置也得出了截然相反的结果。曾经的摇摆州佛罗里达如今已是深红，共和党占据着参众两院超过六成的议席。所以，尽管遭到民主党人的强烈抵制和自由派民众的愤怒抗议，共和党人还是强行通过了这一法案，在3月28日交由共和党州长德桑蒂斯签署，最终将于7月1日正式生效。虽然LGBTQ维权机构立刻在联邦法院对这一法律提起诉讼，但审理这起诉讼的法官却是前总统特朗普提名的强硬保守派法官，他此前就曾多次反对同性婚姻合法化。鉴于联邦第11上诉法院和最高法院都是保守派占据多数席位，这一诉讼的前景并不乐观。公开施压迪士尼表态这一争议法律的背景并不复杂。那么，为什么迪士尼这样的全球娱乐巨头要碰这个烫手山芋，卷入两派的政治斗争呢？他们又为什么要选择站队自由派，公开触怒在佛罗里达执政的共和党人？从2月下旬开始，迪士尼前高管、核心员工、重要股东以及公众舆论就在不断施压，呼吁迪士尼站出来施压阻止佛州这一法案，甚至用抵制迪士尼产品来威胁。为什么非要逼着迪士尼站队表态？迪士尼对佛罗里达经济有着重要意义。他们是佛罗里达最大的雇主，在该州雇佣了近8万名员工，奥兰多的迪士尼世界更是佛罗里达招商引资和旅游业的一张名片。迪士尼在美国只有两个主题乐园，全球也只有六个园区；按开业时间顺序，依次是洛杉矶、奥兰多、东京、巴黎、香港和上海。奥兰多的迪士尼世界是创始人华特·迪士尼(WalterDisney)去世之前亲自设计的，于1971年正式开业。这里是全球面积最大的迪士尼乐园，几个园区占地面积高达122平方公里，甚至比两个曼哈顿的面积还多，已经相当于一个小型城市。这里也是全球客流量最大的迪士尼乐园，疫情之前每年游客高达5800万人。2021年，迪士尼世界给佛罗里达州贡献了7.8亿美元的税收收入，更别提给当地旅游业带来的巨大流量与消费。此外，更让批评者感到愤怒的是，迪士尼还是推动佛州共和党议员们的大金主。据奥兰多当地媒体2月底报道，2020年迪士尼给佛州共和党人捐出了100万美元，包括捐给州长德桑蒂斯的5万美元。最初的一个多月时间，迪士尼CEO查佩克(BobChapek)始终对此事保持着沉默，拒绝回应外界的质疑，避免公司卷入政治漩涡。他接替迪士尼CEO职位之前，长期负责迪士尼主题乐园业务，和佛罗里达州政要们同样关系密切。内外压力与日俱增但事态的发展显然超过了查佩克的预期。2月底，迪士尼前董事长兼CEO艾格(RobertIger)转发了拜登的推文，就佛罗里达LGBTQ法案公开表明自己的反对态度。艾格表示自己“完全支持拜登总统。这一法案如果通过，会将脆弱的LGBTQ年轻人置于危险境地。”艾格已经在2020年初卸任迪士尼CEO职位，又在去年年底辞去了迪士尼董事长职位。虽然此番表纯属个人行为，与迪士尼无关；但艾格担任迪士尼CEO长达15年，在美国娱乐界和商界依然拥有不小的影响力，更对迪士尼员工有着巨大的号召力。他的表态也在一定程度上增加了查佩克的舆论压力。艾格在社会问题上明显持开明态度。他在2016年公开捐款支持过希拉里，后来又因为气候政策公开反对特朗普政府。2020年他甚至认真考虑以民主党身份参选总统，只是因为家庭反对、前景黯然等诸多因素决定放弃。除了功勋CEO，迪士尼家族的继承人们也站了出来。第三代成员阿比加尔·迪士尼(AbigailDisney)和罗伊·迪士尼(RoyP.Disney)先后公开表示对迪士尼支持佛罗里达共和党人感到非常失望，他们要求迪士尼在佛罗里达反LGBTQ法案的问题上表明自己的立场。他们的祖父是迪士尼联合创始人，父亲曾经担任迪士尼副董事长。迪士尼家族的第四代成员查尔丽·迪士尼(CharleeCorraDisney)随后更是直接出柜，宣布自己是跨性别者，个人向LGBTQ维权机构捐出25万美元，谴责佛罗里达的这一法案。虽然迪士尼家族并不介入公司运营，所持的股份已经不到3%，但却依然对迪士尼拥有公开影响力。沉默了一个多月之后，查佩克终于坐不住了。他在3月7日发布内部邮件解释称，迪士尼会和LGBTQ员工们站在一起，但公司并不愿意对这一法案公开表态，希望得到员工们的理解。他承诺，迪士尼会通过令人振奋的内容创作，努力创造一个更加包容的世界。然而，查佩克这种避重就轻的态度反而让公司员工更加不满。诸多核心内容创作员工也发表公开信，要求迪士尼谴责佛罗里达反LGBTQ法案。其中包括《奇幻猫头鹰小屋》(TheOwlHouse)主创DanaTerrace、《唐老鸭俱乐部》(DuckTales)主创BenjaminSiemon、《幽灵与莫莉》(TheGhostandMollyMcGee)主创BillMotz等等。尽管迪士尼帝国的业务相当多元，但内容制作部门才是迪士尼的真正核心业务，而这些创作者更是迪士尼最为看重的核心竞争力。最终压倒查佩克，让他决定放弃不干涉态度的，是皮克斯和漫威两大核心部门的施压。3月9日，皮克斯工作室发表声明，支持LGBTQ员工们的立场；3月16日，漫威工作室宣布谴责“所有侵犯LGBTQ人群基本人权的法案”。更为严重的是，迪士尼还面临着一场员工倒戈。由于对公司的沉默态度不满，迪士尼诸多员工计划在3月16日集体罢工15分钟，而后在3月22日进行大罢工。公开谴责遭遇报复面对着公司内部的群情激愤和罢工威胁，查佩克终于明白自己已经没有选择。如果继续保持沉默，那么自己不仅可能在公司众叛亲离，甚至会失去董事会的信任。此外，作为佛州共和党的大金主，迪士尼也已经成为美国自由派的抨击对象。3月28日，就在佛罗里达州长德桑蒂斯签署“不能提同性恋法案”的当天，迪士尼终于作出了前所未有的态度转变，言辞激烈地谴责佛罗里达这一法案，称“这一法案根本不应该通过，也不应该被签署。”迪士尼宣布向LGBTQ维权机构捐款500万美元，支持他们通过诉讼阻止这一法律生效。这种公开站队的态度或许让查佩克暂时缓解了来自公司内外的巨大压力，但却彻底激怒了主导佛州的共和党政要们。尽管他们都曾经得到过迪士尼的政治捐款，但此刻维护自己的坚定保守派形象显然更为重要。佛州州长德桑蒂斯更加激烈地公开回击迪士尼是“觉悟派”(WokeDisney)，“治理佛罗里达的是我们选民的利益，而不是那些加州的企业高管(迪士尼总部位于洛杉矶)。如果迪士尼想挑起战争，那么他们选错了人。”他们随后开始安排对迪士尼的惩罚措施。佛州共和党人打算拿迪士尼开刀，也有杀鸡儆猴的意义。过去几年时间，佛州共和党人一直处在美国左右两派争斗的前沿，成为保守派的大本营；而德桑蒂斯更是积极扮演共和党新一代领军人物的角色，被视为最有可能的特朗普接班人。高调打压迪士尼，有助于他提升自己在保守派选民中的民望。如何惩罚迪士尼？为了招商迪士尼兴建主题乐园，佛州在上世纪六十年代末授予迪士尼一项特权，为他们设立一个特别开发区。在这个开发区内，迪士尼负责水电公路等基础设施，同时拥有各种项目的经营管理权，无须当地政府审批。迪士尼就像是当地政府一样，还有权发行免税的市政债券。但随着德桑蒂斯的签字，仅仅三周时间，佛州共和党人就撤销了迪士尼在奥克兰享受了半个世纪的行政特权。迪士尼再没有了特殊待遇，不得不和环球影城(UniversalStudios)、乐高乐园(Legoland)以及海洋世界(SeaWorld)等同行面临同样的监管环境。然而，这场迪士尼对阵佛罗里达的政企冲突背后，或许却是两败俱伤。迪士尼失去了在佛罗里达的特殊优惠，未来在佛州的投资和增长前景也会面临疑问。而佛州政府公开报复迪士尼，也会损害到他们的亲商形象，当地政府还不得不承接10亿美元的未偿付债务。即便对德桑蒂斯本人，这种高调打压本州最大雇主的姿态也难言福祸。2018年德桑蒂斯以极其微弱优势赢得佛罗里达州长选举，只比民主党候选人多出了3.4万张票。今年他即将面临连任选举，8万名迪士尼雇员届时将如何投票，将会成为影响选举结果的一大悬念。企业再难置身事外实际上，迪士尼并不是近年来唯一卷入政治漩涡的巨头企业。过去几年时间，随着美国社会日见分裂，两派争斗日益激烈，企业巨头们也越来越难置身事外，要么主动要么被动地卷入其中。那些积极维护良好公众形象的巨头企业，也因此承受着来自员工和用户的期待，承担起推动社会进步的责任。作为美国最具影响力的同性恋商业领袖，苹果CEO库克针对佛州法案第一时间表态，自己以LGBTQ身份为荣，对全美多地出台反LBGTQ的法律深感忧虑，尤其是针对未成年LGBTQ人群的法律。库克承诺自己和苹果会坚定支持LGBTQ群体的维权事业。苹果是同性维权机构HRC(迪士尼捐款对象)最为积极的企业会员。苹果在美国国会的游说议程之一就是反种族歧视。而且，在推动LGBTQ维权的问题上，苹果或许是美国最为直接的巨头企业。早在2014年，库克就直接施压亚利桑那州州长否决一项歧视同性人群的法案SB1062(允许以宗教信仰理由拒绝服务同性人群)，否则苹果就会取消在该州10亿美元的蓝宝石玻璃工厂投资项目。在苹果等诸多企业和行业机构的反对下，亚利桑那州州长布鲁尔(JanBrewer)最终否决了这一法案。在特朗普执政的四年时间，硅谷科技巨头一次又一次地站出来，公开批评他的各项政策：无论是限制移民涌入，还是退出气候变化全球行动。那些参与政府执法合作项目的巨头企业，则面临着来自自己员工的施压。2018年和2019年，谷歌在员工强烈抵制下先后被迫放弃了美国国防部的无人机AI项目和边境执法局的云计算合同。运动品巨头耐克公司或许是政治立场最为鲜明的美国企业巨头。过去十年，他们始终站在美国反种族歧视运动的最前沿，甚至不惜公开顶撞美国总统。2016年美式足球大联盟球员卡佩尼克(ColinKaepernick)用在球场下跪的方式表达对美国种族歧视和警察暴行的不满，成为了焦点人物。此举遭受了时任总统特朗普的强烈抨击。卡佩尼克就此结束了自己的职业生涯，因为没有球队再愿意签下引发巨大争议的他。然而，耐克却顶着来自白宫和保守派阵营的巨大压力，在2018年签下卡佩尼克担任品牌代言，拍摄反种族歧视的广告“坚持信念，哪怕牺牲一切”，引发了全美轰动和巨大争议。或许，此次公开政治站队是耐克最具冒险性的一次投资。至少从美国市场的营收来看，耐克在美国依旧保持着稳定增长。2018年耐克在美国市场营收153亿美元，疫情之前的2019年则是160亿美元，去年更是增长到173.6亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060642738,"gmtCreate":1651146576490,"gmtModify":1676534858537,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","na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","listText":"Nice ","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060642738","repostId":"1109982343","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109982343","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1651146383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109982343?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 19:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Despite supply chain challenges, Caterpillar Q1 revenue increased by 14%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109982343","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"卡特彼勒于4月28日盘前，公布了2022年第一季度财报。该公司一季度销售额和收入增长14%，至136亿美元，去年同期为119亿美元;营业利润率为13.7%，而2021年第一季度为15.3%;调整后每股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>Before the market opened on April 28, the financial report for the first quarter of 2022 was announced. The company's sales and revenue increased by 14% in the first quarter to $13.6 billion, compared with $11.9 billion in the same period last year; Operating margin was 13.7%, compared to 15.3% in the first quarter of 2021; Adjusted earnings per share were $2.88, ahead of analysts' forecasts of $2.6, compared with earnings per share of $2.87 for the same period in 2021. As of press time, Caterpillar fell 2.32% to $209.</p><p>Caterpillar pointed out that the main reasons for the company's revenue growth in the first quarter were that end users' demand for equipment and services increased, dealers' inventory increased, and product prices were competitive.</p><p>The company ended the first quarter with corporate cash of $6.5 billion. Caterpillar paid about $1.3 billion in short-term incentive compensation in the first quarter. In addition, Caterpillar repurchased $800 million of common stock and paid Dividend $600 million.</p><p>Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO of Caterpillar, said: \"I am very proud of the performance of our global team. Despite the continuous challenges of the supply chain, our team has achieved double-digit sales growth. In the future, we will still fully support our customers and implement the long-term profitable growth strategy.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Despite supply chain challenges, Caterpillar Q1 revenue increased by 14%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDespite supply chain challenges, Caterpillar Q1 revenue increased by 14%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-28 19:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>Before the market opened on April 28, the financial report for the first quarter of 2022 was announced. The company's sales and revenue increased by 14% in the first quarter to $13.6 billion, compared with $11.9 billion in the same period last year; Operating margin was 13.7%, compared to 15.3% in the first quarter of 2021; Adjusted earnings per share were $2.88, ahead of analysts' forecasts of $2.6, compared with earnings per share of $2.87 for the same period in 2021. As of press time, Caterpillar fell 2.32% to $209.</p><p>Caterpillar pointed out that the main reasons for the company's revenue growth in the first quarter were that end users' demand for equipment and services increased, dealers' inventory increased, and product prices were competitive.</p><p>The company ended the first quarter with corporate cash of $6.5 billion. Caterpillar paid about $1.3 billion in short-term incentive compensation in the first quarter. In addition, Caterpillar repurchased $800 million of common stock and paid Dividend $600 million.</p><p>Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO of Caterpillar, said: \"I am very proud of the performance of our global team. Despite the continuous challenges of the supply chain, our team has achieved double-digit sales growth. In the future, we will still fully support our customers and implement the long-term profitable growth strategy.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c118f447ec0f1f0ce6060cc2e85ac6a4","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4520":"美国基建股","CAT":"卡特彼勒","BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109982343","content_text":"卡特彼勒于4月28日盘前，公布了2022年第一季度财报。该公司一季度销售额和收入增长14%，至136亿美元，去年同期为119亿美元;营业利润率为13.7%，而2021年第一季度为15.3%;调整后每股收益为2.88美元，高于分析师预测的2.6美元，2021年同期每股收益为2.87美元。截至发稿，卡特彼勒下跌2.32%，报209美元。卡特彼勒指出，该公司一季度营收增长的主要原因是，终端用户对设备和服务的需求提升，经销商提高了库存，并且产品价格富有竞争力。该公司第一季度末，企业现金为65亿美元。卡特彼勒在一季度支付了约13亿美元的短期激励薪酬。此外，卡特彼勒还回购了8亿美元的普通股，支付股息6亿美元。卡特彼勒董事长兼首席执行官Jim Umpleby表示：“对于我们全球团队的表现，我感到非常自豪。尽管供应链面临持续挑战，但我们的团队仍实现了两位数的销售额增长。今后，我们仍将全力支持我们的客户，并执行长期盈利增长战略。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087723444,"gmtCreate":1651060776931,"gmtModify":1676534842052,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","name":"CalvinChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573814781456643","authorIdStr":"3573814781456643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087723444","repostId":"1150871890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086682692,"gmtCreate":1650449428182,"gmtModify":1676534726345,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","name":"CalvinChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573814781456643","authorIdStr":"3573814781456643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086682692","repostId":"1184020140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184020140","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650448918,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184020140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 18:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Musk sets up the Flag again! Said to achieve \"fully autonomous driving\" this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184020140","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"有亿万富翁自掏百万美元抵制！","content":"<p><div>Reporter | Dong Tianyi A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed in an interview with TED host Chris Anderson that Tesla will achieve full autonomous driving this year, that is, L5 autonomous driving technology level. In the interview, host Chris Anderson asked Musk about the time it will take for Tesla to achieve fully autonomous driving, and mentioned whether \"fully autonomous driving\" means that Tesla cars can be driven in most cities without human intervention. Driving in cities is safer than human driving. In response,...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-nnNWHnRNZLsZa8EyULUNA\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk sets up the Flag again! Said to achieve \"fully autonomous driving\" this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk sets up the Flag again! Said to achieve \"fully autonomous driving\" this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-20 18:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter | Dong Tianyi A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed in an interview with TED host Chris Anderson that Tesla will achieve full autonomous driving this year, that is, L5 autonomous driving technology level. In the interview, host Chris Anderson asked Musk about the time it will take for Tesla to achieve fully autonomous driving, and mentioned whether \"fully autonomous driving\" means that Tesla cars can be driven in most cities without human intervention. Driving in cities is safer than human driving. In response,...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-nnNWHnRNZLsZa8EyULUNA\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-nnNWHnRNZLsZa8EyULUNA\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/832577221afa1b1253296742e769437d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-nnNWHnRNZLsZa8EyULUNA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184020140","content_text":"记者丨董天意日前，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在接受 TED 主持人 Chris Anderson的采访中透露，特斯拉将今年实现完全自动驾驶，也就是L5级自动驾驶技术水平。在访谈中，主持人 Chris Anderson询问了马斯克关于特斯拉实现全自动驾驶的时间，并提及“全自动驾驶”是否意味着指特斯拉汽车可以在没有人类干预的情况下在大多数城市行驶，且比人工驾驶更安全。对此，马斯克回答道：“是的”。但美国亿万富豪丹・奥多德（Dan O‘Dowd）并不这么认为。丹・奥多德公开表示，特斯拉FSD的Beta版本“糟糕透顶”，并称将在全美发起了一场耗资数百万美元的广告宣传活动，呼吁对特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）选装包进行“封杀”。图片来源：视觉中国-VCG111330309292按照国际汽车工程师协会（SAE）划分方法，自动驾驶技术水平从0级至5级递增，分别是L0级（人工驾驶） 、L1级（辅助驾驶）、L2级（部分自动化）、L3级（条件自动化）、L4级（高度自动化）和L5级（完全自动化）。按照定义，L5级能够完全自适应驾驶，适应任何驾驶环境。目前，德国是唯一在官方层面为车企进行L3级上路认证的国家。而美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）不久前刚刚发布了最终版的《无人驾驶汽车乘客保护规定》，其中对于由自动驾驶系统操作的车辆，将不被要求配备传统方向盘等手动控制装置。值得一提的是，从2020年开始，马斯克曾不止一次在公开场合承诺在当年内实现完全自动驾驶，但是均未能实现。对此，马斯克表示：“我们有过太多次的误判，以为我们解决了某个问题，到头来我们才发现，那只是另一个问题的开端，就像在爬一座无止尽的高楼一样。”马斯克表示，这一次他更有信心。“实现全自动驾驶必须先实现real-world AI，而真实世界可用的人工智能，必须先从人脑来理解。”马斯克认为，现实世界中的道路、标志和交通规则，都是设计给人脑跟人眼使用，因此不该用计算机的方式来阅读世界，而是让计算机变得更像人脑，然后去阅读世界。马斯克解释称，特斯拉放弃了此前采用的逐格图片分析，而是用8颗摄影头的连续视频来做AI学习。图片来源：每日经济新闻 郑得锐 摄（图文无关）“目前我自己的特斯拉车辆在大部分时间都是在没有人工干预的情况下载着我在奥斯汀周围行驶。”马斯克表示，特斯拉的全自动驾驶测试项目已有超过10万名司机参与。公开资料显示，特斯拉FSD Beta（完全自动驾驶测试版）最早于2020年10月发布，并率先在美国市场推广，至今版本已更新数十次。2021年末，特斯拉开放FSD Beta的车辆有6万辆，占北美地区特斯拉付费FSD车主的40%。据悉，车主若想获得FSD Beta的开放权，需要拥有良好的安全驾驶习惯，且在特斯拉安全评分工具下得到较高评分。而为了加快FSD Beta的普及，特斯拉降低了安全分数标准，以至于2022年第一季度 其开放FSD Beta的车主迅速增加了4万人。此前马斯克表示，2022年年内将在北美地区所有自动驾驶客户中开展更广泛的测试。但上述做法引发了部分人的不满。有观点认为，特斯拉的做法是让客户在公共道路上使用“Beta”产品，其本质是让客户负责修正“无人驾驶系统”的错误，而且这套系统犯错的几率很高。据报道，美国亿万富豪丹・奥多德表示，特斯拉 FSD Beta“糟糕透顶”，“问题频出”，应当“在美国道路上彻底封杀”。为了达到这一目的，丹・奥多德面向全美投放了一条名为《什么速度都不安全》（Unsafe at Any Speed）的广告宣传视频，集中阐述了这套系统的潜在危险，此外，丹・奥多德还计划投入 200 万美元，在美国 36 个州投放上述视频。需要注意的是，现仍为L2级的特斯拉Autopilot自动驾驶功能就已经发生了多起事故，并且一直受到NHTSA、NTSB等部门的调查。调查结果显示，几乎所有事故中，都是驾驶员过度相信Autopilot或者注意力不集中导致。图片来源：NHTSA2018年，美国加州发生特斯拉追尾一辆消防车的事故，NTSB认定特斯拉驾驶员过度依赖Autopilot系统，导致没能及时接管，所幸这起事故没有人受伤；2021年5月，同样在美国加州，一名男子开启Autopilot之后，竟然离开驾驶席，坐在了后排座椅上，被警察发现后，该男子被捕。据美联社报道，2022年1月，一名27岁的特斯拉Model S驾驶员被指控过失杀人罪，原因是不当使用L2自动驾驶系统造成交通事故，并致2人死亡。根据统计，2016年以来，NHTSA已经针对26起Autopilot相关事故进行了调查，其中至少11人死亡。然而，资本市场似乎对马斯克的“完全自动驾驶”计划更感兴趣。华尔街明星基金经理凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）旗下方舟投资管理公司（Ark Investment Management）预计，到2026年，特斯拉股价将翻两番，达到4600美元，而特斯拉的完全自动驾驶能力将在2026年贡献其60%的预期价值。“尽管我们调整了对2026年的预期，但我们认为，我们的特斯拉估值模型在方法上仍是保守的。”方舟投资分析师塔莎·基尼（Tasha Keeney）表示，估值模型的一个关键驱动因素是，市场对自动驾驶出租车服务的需求将增加，其市场规模在11万亿至12万亿美元之间。“我们的假设是到2026年，特斯拉股票将像一家成熟公司一样交易，而非一家高增长公司。”塔莎·基尼表示。关键词 :马斯克特斯拉完全自动驾驶","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083731070,"gmtCreate":1650159999205,"gmtModify":1676534658873,"author":{"id":"3573814781456643","authorId":"3573814781456643","name":"CalvinChong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573814781456643","authorIdStr":"3573814781456643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thx","listText":"thx","text":"thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083731070","repostId":"1171945540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}