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- mildredmildred
  ·2021-02-18
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  Short Sellers, SPACs and the Future of Flying Cars
  The mania for blank-check companies has spread to the nascent air taxi industry, but investors need
  Short Sellers, SPACs and the Future of Flying Cars
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The Chinese company makes “electric vertical take-off and landing” (eVTOL) aircraft, which function a bit like a helicopter but are&nbsp;powered by batteries and have multiple rotors. Its passenger drones are pilotless, too, unlike those of most of its rivals.</p>\n<p>EHang’s listing —&nbsp;a traditional initial public offering underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse&nbsp;—&nbsp;raised just $41 million and&nbsp;valued&nbsp;the company at less than $700 million. Since then it has been caught up in a surge of excitement about the development of air taxis, and at the start of this week&nbsp;it was worth $6.8 billion.</p>\n<p>On Tuesday its share price suffered a serious malfunction.&nbsp;More than 60% of its value went up in smoke after a short seller, Wolfpack Research,&nbsp;published a report&nbsp;questioning EHang’s sales relationships, technology and regulatory approvals.&nbsp;EHang&nbsp;said the report contains “numerous errors, unsubstantiated statements, and misinterpretation of information.”</p>\n<p>Regardless of the rights and wrongs of this particular episode, it shows the risks of investing in futuristic technology companies. A huge amount money is also being pumped into the nascent air-taxi&nbsp;industry by special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, a method of taking businesses public that’s all the rage in the U.S.</p>\n<p>There is, at least, something behind the investor excitement. Long considered a dream best left to “Blade Runner,” air taxis could soon become reality thanks to advances in batteries, software and lightweight materials.&nbsp;It helps thatstar fund manager Cathie Wood&nbsp;may include “drones, air taxis and electric aviation vehicles” in her new space-themed exchange-traded fund. But shareholders need to do their due diligence as well.</p>\n<p><b>Flying Cars Hit Turbulence</b></p>\n<p>EHang's shares tumbled following a short-seller report</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962956f8d2413d00cc42ce78317cfb8f\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"236\">Wood will soon have several other publicly traded air-taxi companies to pick from, thanks to a recent rush of&nbsp;SPAC deals. (SPACs are listed vehicles that merge&nbsp;with a promising business&nbsp;and thereby take&nbsp;it public —&nbsp;avoiding the laborious route of an old-fashioned IPO.)</p>\n<p>From a SPAC financial sponsor’s&nbsp;perspective, flying cars are a potential marriage made in heaven. Thanks to a regulatory loophole, SPAC targets are allowed to publish veryoptimistic financial forecasts, which helps them secure eye-watering stock-market valuations. Suddenly, air-taxi manufacturers have found themselves able&nbsp;to raise massive amounts of capital. A typical development program for these vehicles&nbsp;costs up to $1 billion.</p>\n<p>The EHang saga may be a one-off, but values are inflated&nbsp;across the sector. I doubt whether the match will always be a happy one for amateur investors who buy into these air-taxi visions.</p>\n<p>Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation and Blade Urban Air Mobility have all announced SPAC mergers in recent weeks, orreportedly will do so soon. Germany’s Volocopter and Lilium have also been linked toSPAC deals. Meanwhile,&nbsp;former Boeing Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg’s SPAC may pursue something in “advanced air mobility.”</p>\n<p>Letting SPAC targets publishmulti-year financial projections&nbsp;—&nbsp;no matter how wild — gives them a huge advantage because most are still in the development and testing stage. Traditional IPOs don’t allow this forecasting. In air taxis, getting the required regulatory permits could take years, which makes future profit estimates partly guesswork.&nbsp;Volocopter’s development is relatively well-advanced but it doesn’t expect to start commercial services in Singaporeuntil the end of 2023.</p>\n<p>SPAC-acquired Archer confidently projects it will havemore than $12 billion of revenue&nbsp;by 2030 and almost $3 billion of yearly free cash flow, even though it hasn’t yet manufactured or delivered any aircraft to customers. Some skepticism is warranted.</p>\n<p><b>Taking Flight, or Flight of Fancy?</b></p>\n<p>A Spac deal allows Archer to publish revenue forecasts. They're ambitious</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c9c62f1ff64b8fbd3dd840dabde595\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"236\">Regardless, Archer’s merger with investment banker Ken Moelis’s Atlas Crest Investment Corp. valued it at $3.8 billion if you include the $1 billion of cash raised. Based on where the SPAC shares are trading now, Archer’s equity value has increased to $5.3&nbsp;billion, while Blade is worth $1.5 billion.1&nbsp;Joby, which is quite advanced&nbsp;in the crucial certification process, expects to be valued at almost $6 billion, according to the Financial Times. For context, Italy’s Leonardo SpA, one of the biggest helicopter manufacturers,&nbsp;is valued at 3.6 billion euros ($4.4 billion).</p>\n<p>In fairness, electric air taxis may prove to be cleaner, cheaper and quieter than helicopters, which means the market could be larger. Having multiple rotors may alleviate safety concerns.</p>\n<p>It’s not just idealistic start-ups who are excited by the technology. Aerospace giantsAirbus SEandBoeing Co., carmakers&nbsp;Hyundai Motor Co.,General Motors Co.&nbsp;andStellantis NV, and tech companies&nbsp;Tencent Holdings Ltd.&nbsp;andIntel Corp.&nbsp;are all investing in a Jetsons-style future, too. Former Airbus CEO Tom Enders has joined Lilium’s board. Spanish infrastructure company Ferrovial SA is planning anetwork of “vertiports”in Florida.</p>\n<p>With dozens of air taxis under&nbsp;development, the companies that raise most money will have the best chance of survival. However, cash doesn’t guarantee success.&nbsp;The battery fire that engulfed a Lilium&nbsp;prototype last year shows what can go wrong. The complexity of what these companies are attempting, combined with a long regulatory approval process, means most will gobble up&nbsp;piles of cash. Public-company investors are accustomed to financial improvements each quarter and aren’t known for patience.</p>\n<p><b>Flying Car Investments</b></p>\n<p>Venture capital investments in air taxi start-ups surged in 2020. Joby and Lilium were by far the biggest beneficiaries.</p>\n<li><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08ce33fe7cebabcd195aa168291298c\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"234\">“This is one of those ‘hard world’&nbsp;problems —&nbsp;high capital costs, advanced hardware technologies, long timeline, and an overall very challenging business with low chances of success,” Archer’s co-founders have written,&nbsp;withrefreshing honesty. Nonetheless, they are still getting the chance to try.</li>\n<p>In a manifesto lamenting venture capital’s failure to support bold technologies, Peter Thiel once opined that, “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters” (then the maximum length of a tweet). For better or worse, SPACs may have changed the equation.</p>\n<li></li>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Short Sellers, SPACs and the Future of Flying Cars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShort Sellers, SPACs and the Future of Flying Cars\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-18 11:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-17/spac-mania-flying-cars-are-an-extremely-expensive-ride-for-investors?srnd=opinion><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The mania for blank-check companies has spread to the nascent air taxi industry, but investors need to be careful.\n\nWhen EHang Holdings Ltd. first sold shares to the U.S. public in December 2019, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-17/spac-mania-flying-cars-are-an-extremely-expensive-ride-for-investors?srnd=opinion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EH":"亿航智能"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-17/spac-mania-flying-cars-are-an-extremely-expensive-ride-for-investors?srnd=opinion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110571780","content_text":"The mania for blank-check companies has spread to the nascent air taxi industry, but investors need to be careful.\n\nWhen EHang Holdings Ltd. first sold shares to the U.S. public in December 2019, investors weren’t exactly sold on the rare chance to bet on the future of flying cars. The Chinese company makes “electric vertical take-off and landing” (eVTOL) aircraft, which function a bit like a helicopter but are powered by batteries and have multiple rotors. Its passenger drones are pilotless, too, unlike those of most of its rivals.\nEHang’s listing — a traditional initial public offering underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse — raised just $41 million and valued the company at less than $700 million. Since then it has been caught up in a surge of excitement about the development of air taxis, and at the start of this week it was worth $6.8 billion.\nOn Tuesday its share price suffered a serious malfunction. More than 60% of its value went up in smoke after a short seller, Wolfpack Research, published a report questioning EHang’s sales relationships, technology and regulatory approvals. EHang said the report contains “numerous errors, unsubstantiated statements, and misinterpretation of information.”\nRegardless of the rights and wrongs of this particular episode, it shows the risks of investing in futuristic technology companies. A huge amount money is also being pumped into the nascent air-taxi industry by special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, a method of taking businesses public that’s all the rage in the U.S.\nThere is, at least, something behind the investor excitement. Long considered a dream best left to “Blade Runner,” air taxis could soon become reality thanks to advances in batteries, software and lightweight materials. It helps thatstar fund manager Cathie Wood may include “drones, air taxis and electric aviation vehicles” in her new space-themed exchange-traded fund. But shareholders need to do their due diligence as well.\nFlying Cars Hit Turbulence\nEHang's shares tumbled following a short-seller report\nWood will soon have several other publicly traded air-taxi companies to pick from, thanks to a recent rush of SPAC deals. (SPACs are listed vehicles that merge with a promising business and thereby take it public — avoiding the laborious route of an old-fashioned IPO.)\nFrom a SPAC financial sponsor’s perspective, flying cars are a potential marriage made in heaven. Thanks to a regulatory loophole, SPAC targets are allowed to publish veryoptimistic financial forecasts, which helps them secure eye-watering stock-market valuations. Suddenly, air-taxi manufacturers have found themselves able to raise massive amounts of capital. A typical development program for these vehicles costs up to $1 billion.\nThe EHang saga may be a one-off, but values are inflated across the sector. I doubt whether the match will always be a happy one for amateur investors who buy into these air-taxi visions.\nJoby Aviation, Archer Aviation and Blade Urban Air Mobility have all announced SPAC mergers in recent weeks, orreportedly will do so soon. Germany’s Volocopter and Lilium have also been linked toSPAC deals. Meanwhile, former Boeing Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg’s SPAC may pursue something in “advanced air mobility.”\nLetting SPAC targets publishmulti-year financial projections — no matter how wild — gives them a huge advantage because most are still in the development and testing stage. Traditional IPOs don’t allow this forecasting. In air taxis, getting the required regulatory permits could take years, which makes future profit estimates partly guesswork. Volocopter’s development is relatively well-advanced but it doesn’t expect to start commercial services in Singaporeuntil the end of 2023.\nSPAC-acquired Archer confidently projects it will havemore than $12 billion of revenue by 2030 and almost $3 billion of yearly free cash flow, even though it hasn’t yet manufactured or delivered any aircraft to customers. Some skepticism is warranted.\nTaking Flight, or Flight of Fancy?\nA Spac deal allows Archer to publish revenue forecasts. They're ambitious\nRegardless, Archer’s merger with investment banker Ken Moelis’s Atlas Crest Investment Corp. valued it at $3.8 billion if you include the $1 billion of cash raised. Based on where the SPAC shares are trading now, Archer’s equity value has increased to $5.3 billion, while Blade is worth $1.5 billion.1 Joby, which is quite advanced in the crucial certification process, expects to be valued at almost $6 billion, according to the Financial Times. For context, Italy’s Leonardo SpA, one of the biggest helicopter manufacturers, is valued at 3.6 billion euros ($4.4 billion).\nIn fairness, electric air taxis may prove to be cleaner, cheaper and quieter than helicopters, which means the market could be larger. Having multiple rotors may alleviate safety concerns.\nIt’s not just idealistic start-ups who are excited by the technology. Aerospace giantsAirbus SEandBoeing Co., carmakers Hyundai Motor Co.,General Motors Co. andStellantis NV, and tech companies Tencent Holdings Ltd. andIntel Corp. are all investing in a Jetsons-style future, too. Former Airbus CEO Tom Enders has joined Lilium’s board. Spanish infrastructure company Ferrovial SA is planning anetwork of “vertiports”in Florida.\nWith dozens of air taxis under development, the companies that raise most money will have the best chance of survival. However, cash doesn’t guarantee success. The battery fire that engulfed a Lilium prototype last year shows what can go wrong. The complexity of what these companies are attempting, combined with a long regulatory approval process, means most will gobble up piles of cash. Public-company investors are accustomed to financial improvements each quarter and aren’t known for patience.\nFlying Car Investments\nVenture capital investments in air taxi start-ups surged in 2020. Joby and Lilium were by far the biggest beneficiaries.\n“This is one of those ‘hard world’ problems — high capital costs, advanced hardware technologies, long timeline, and an overall very challenging business with low chances of success,” Archer’s co-founders have written, withrefreshing honesty. Nonetheless, they are still getting the chance to try.\nIn a manifesto lamenting venture capital’s failure to support bold technologies, Peter Thiel once opined that, “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters” (then the maximum length of a tweet). For better or worse, SPACs may have changed the equation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}