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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-09-10
Who knows
The love of the Federal Reserve is not unconditional!
在不到三个季度的时间跨度内，美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点（截至2021年9月3日收盘），涨幅超过100%。 在估值方面，S&P 500的Shiller
The love of the Federal Reserve is not unconditional!
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-09-09
Really?
[Change] BlackBerry rose more than 6%, the company filed two patent applications in the United States
9月9日，黑莓盘中涨超6%，此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请，分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。
[Change] BlackBerry rose more than 6%, the company filed two patent applications in the United States
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-08-28
Weee
Oil posts biggest weekly gain since June as hurricane is on the horizon
油企周五已经关闭了墨西哥湾59%的产能。墨西哥湾的海上油井占美国原油产量的17%，美国有超过45%的炼油产能位于墨西哥湾沿岸。
Oil posts biggest weekly gain since June as hurricane is on the horizon
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-08-20
Baba go
Chinese concept stocks "broken brothers" welcome a heavy new friend: Alibaba
港美股中概股的“破发兄弟”中，迎来了一位重磅的朋友，阿里巴巴。 2021年8月17日，港股阿里巴巴暴跌4.77％，收报171.8港元，跌破176港元的发行价。 就在投资者们还在“幻想破发之后必有反弹”
Chinese concept stocks "broken brothers" welcome a heavy new friend: Alibaba
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-08-19
Oh no
If the Federal Reserve wants to "close water", will U.S. stocks really fall? How much?
美股可能受市场情绪影响短期下跌，但想要大跌下去的话，可能不会大。
If the Federal Reserve wants to "close water", will U.S. stocks really fall? How much?
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-07-25
QE lo
The Fed's blockbuster July meeting is coming next week! What key points should we focus on?
美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。
The Fed's blockbuster July meeting is coming next week! What key points should we focus on?
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-07-15
Good
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-07-14
Go to the moon
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-07-02
Yeah… take a rest
Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5
因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。 港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。 背景简介： 独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月
Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5
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AB_Iphone
AB_Iphone
·
2021-06-29
Serious?runnnnnn
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In terms of valuation, the Shiller P/E of the S&P500 recently reached 39 times, exceeding the level before the 2008 financial crisis and close to the top valuation of the 2000 dot-com bubble. The price-to-book ratio reached 4.8, which is also close to 2000 levels. The price-to-sales ratio reached 3.3, the highest since data became available and more than double the pre-crisis peak in 2008,...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ\">国际金融报 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ct3FsiT4drZoEK5fZjV6vQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181368305","content_text":"在不到三个季度的时间跨度内，美股S&P 500指数从2020年3月最低点2191.86涨到4545.85点（截至2021年9月3日收盘），涨幅超过100%。\n在估值方面，S&P 500的Shiller市盈率最近达到39倍，超过2008年金融危机之前水平，接近2000年互联网泡沫顶部估值。市净率达到4.8，也接近2000年水平。市销率达到3.3，是有数据以来的最高，超过2008年危机前最高点的两倍。\nS&P 500指数上涨过程中的K线形态基本跟2008年金融危机之后大部分的上涨区间一致：几乎直线倾斜向上，稍有偏离，很快被修复。只有一个区别，这轮上涨斜率更高（如图一：S&P 500指数月K线）。\n这么高的估值和这么特殊的指数走势，背后自有特殊的内在动因。首先，也是最重要、最根本的，是美联储的呵护。\n美联储对股市的呵护\n从格林斯潘时代开始，美联储对股市的呵护开始变得明显。所谓的“格林斯潘看跌期权”（Greenspan put）就是指当股市下跌时，格林斯潘会免费送给投资者一个看跌期权（也就是保护股市进一步下跌的保险），于是股市又会恢复信心。\n2008金融危机后，美联储对股市的呵护达到新的高度。当时的美联储主席伯南克曾在2010年试图缩小货币刺激规模，但之后的股市暴跌很快说服他掉头，最后不仅没有缩小，反而是陆续推出两轮量化宽松（QE2和QE3），于是股市放心继续斜线向上。\n现任美联储主席鲍威尔经历了类似的过程。上台之初，鲍威尔尝试了加息和量化紧缩。但是股市已经习惯了美联储的溺爱，发现新任主席爱心不足，立刻在2018年第四季度暴跌。暴跌之后，鲍威尔紧急转弯，恢复了对市场的呵护。而市场看到美联储爱心依旧，于是放心地继续斜线上涨，直至2020年初新冠全球疫情暴发。\n新冠疫情暴发后，美股一度出现熔断下跌。在极度悲观的市场氛围中，美联储使出浑身解数，不仅迅速将政策利率调到零，而且展开史上最大规模的资产购买，从而给金融系统注入天量流动性。从2020年3月初到2021年8月底，美联储所持有的资产从4.2万亿美元增加到8.3万亿美元，几乎翻倍。新购买的资产不仅有国债、MBS等传统证券，还史无前例地包括了垃圾债ETF。\n美联储刷新底线的救市再次奏效，市场信心恢复，抄底资金涌入，S&P 500重新斜线向上。而且斜线的斜率超过以往，让指数半年不到便再创新高。\n当然，这届美联储可能已经别无选择，必须对股市百般呵护，因为股市泡沫已经“大而不能破”。著名的巴菲特指标（股市总市值/GDP）已经超过200%，这一方面说明股市估值高企，另一方面也说明股市波动会导致居民财富大幅波动，从而影响实体经济。\n仅S&P 500成分股的总市值，最近已经超过37万亿美元，还有超过10万亿资产跟S&P 500指数挂钩。如果该指数下跌10%，蒸发的财富可能会超过4万亿美元。\n而且美股已经不只是富人的游戏，股市市值也不只是富人账面上的数字。普通中产阶级的退休金在股市里，公共退休基金（即警察、消防员、公立学校教师等公务员退休金的资金池）在股市或在跟股市有关的信用产品里，还有无数散户的积蓄在股市里。因为参与面广泛，股市涨跌会立刻影响美国人的购买力。如果股市跌得厉害，还可能导致社会混乱（想象如果公共退休金亏空违约）。\n对美联储来说，可能已经没有救股市还是救经济这样的选择。呵护股市，就是呵护经济。\n当然，美联储的呵护还不足以让S&P 500走出斜线向上的趋势。虽说底线一直在被刷新，美联储毕竟没像日本央行那样，直接进场买股票画K线。美联储和股市之间还有一臂的距离，它给市场搭了台，唱戏要靠各路机构和散户。K线走成什么样，决定于市场均衡中最活跃的资金做什么样的交易。让S&P 500斜线向上走的，在笔者看来，是美股市场越来越庞大的套息交易。\n股市里的套息交易\n套息交易（Carry trade）的概念最初来自汇率交易。汇率套息交易的一个典型例子是做空（借入）日元、做多巴西雷亚尔。因为日元利率低，雷亚尔利率高，所以如果雷亚尔相对日元保持稳定或升值，套息交易者能获得稳定的息差收入。当然，如果雷亚尔大幅贬值，该交易将血本无归。\n这个概念可以拓展应用到几乎所有金融领域。比如银行存贷款业务是一种套息交易：如果贷款顺利付息还本，那么银行赚到息差，否则将大亏。再比如，保险公司的主营业务也是一种套息交易：如果受保人无事，那么保险公司赚到保险费，如果出事（例如重疾、财产损失等），则要大额赔付。做多信用债无疑也是一种套息交易：如果发行者顺利还本付息，那么获得利息收入，而如果发生信用事件，则可能大幅亏损。\n从这些例子可以看出，套息交易有个共同特征：跟某个巨大的风险（高息货币贬值、银行贷款坏账、受保人发生危险、信用债违约等）共存，在暂时的稳定和无事中获利。套息交易者知道可能有坏事发生，但是他希望岁月静好，至少在他交易结束之前保持静好。换句话说，套息交易者是波动率的空头。\n这样的交易在美股同样存在，而且具体表现形式众多。最明显的一种股市套息是做空VIX期货：如果即期VIX（S&P 500隐含波动率）保持稳定，那么空头就能获得“滚动收益”（roll yield），因为远端的VIX期货一般高于近端；如果同时即期VIX下行，做空收益就更高。但如果股市大跌，VIX大幅上升，那么空头就要血本无归。\n同样的，也可以卖个股或指数的看跌期权：如果股价或指数保持稳定或上涨，那么就能赚到看跌期权的卖价。卖看跌期权是美国散户和机构特别热衷的游戏，如果市场稳定或上涨，可以增强持股收益。当然，如果股票或指数大跌，那么看跌期权的卖方将大亏。\n股市套息远远不止这两种形式。如果一个交易策略成功的前提是市场不发生大跌，那么它就是一个隐形的套息策略。比如逢低抄底（buy the dips）策略在稳定的市场中可以很赚钱，但是一旦市场发生大跌，那就会变成高山上的接盘侠。\n越来越多的机构以及散户参与到股市套息中来。Vineer Bhansali和Larry Harris于2018年发表了一篇论文介绍各种做空波动率策略及其影响，其标题就是“大家都在干这个”（Everyone’s Doing It）。对很多资金管理者来说，参与套息甚至是职场生存所必须。套息能带来稳定的回报，如果不参与，业绩不如人，则会被行业淘汰。\n因为“大家都在干这个”，股市套息对股价的影响渐渐超过甚至淹没了基本面交易的影响。一方面，因为波动率空头压过多头（如股票空头），股市波动率受到抑制。另一方面，套息策略都是助涨的，因此股市倾向上涨。两者结合起来，就形成了S&P 500斜线稳步向上的K线图。\n为什么套息是助涨的？因为套息交易一般都直接或间接提供流动性，比如逢低抄底策略就是在股价下跌时注入流动性。而流动性越好，在其他不变情况下，股价也就越高。事实上，套息是宽松货币政策影响股市流动性的重要渠道。货币宽松导致长期利率下降，诱导机构寻找收益（searching for yield），而股市的套息交易有不可抗拒的吸引力。\n当然，上涨过程并非一帆风顺。自2018年以来，S&P 500就经历了三次恐慌，包括2020年3月的风暴在内。每次恐慌都伴随VIX飙升，股价急跌。但当美联储出手稳定军心，市场又重振旗鼓，再次斜线向上。\n这样的K线形态，说明S&P 500本身也成为一个巨大的套息工具。希望在暂时的稳定和无事中获利的套息者，完全不用更高级的工具，只需要做S&P 500指数的多头（比如买指数ETF）。在岁月静好期间，多头有比较稳定的收益入账，但一旦发生恐慌，可能“一觉回到解放前”，要等美联储救灾和市场缓慢回血。\nS&P 500指数持续上涨，享受史上最高水平的估值，并不是因为当前的美国经济形势最好或具有史上最强增长潜力。只是因为广泛参与、交易活跃的套息盘主导了市场估值，持续推动股价上涨。只是因为成长中的套息盘有自己的动能：股市波动受到抑制，套息盘被验证能赚钱，吸引更多套息资金入场，同时淘汰那些不参与的资金管理人。只是因为套息交易有一个法力无边的幕后支持者：美联储。\n但问题是，美联储真会永远支持股市如此上涨吗？\n美联储的爱，不是无条件的\n美联储继续实施零利率和量化宽松政策有个前提，通胀偏低和就业偏弱。8月份美国失业率已经回落到5.2%，已经在疫情前六十年均值以下。可以说，就业情况已经不弱，而且还在改善中。而8月份的通胀率已经升至4.2%，远高于美联储的目标通胀率2%。\n美联储主席鲍威尔多次强调当前的通胀是短暂（transitory）的，很快会随着疫情影响衰减而回落，从而安抚市场对加息的担心。但通胀趋势充满不确定性，而鲍威尔毕竟不是从未来穿越回来的角色，不能看到未来。更重要的是，目前的货币政策更无助于控制通胀。要让通胀回落，美联储应该加息，从而让实际利率由负转正。\n而且货币政策所关注的CPI或核心CPI通胀，并不完全反映家庭生活成本的上升。Case-Shiller 20城市房价指数已经比疫情前上涨20%，而且因为房屋库存水平较低（尤其是总价低的入门级房屋），同时按揭贷款利率在历史低位（也是宽松货币政策使然），房价很可能还会继续上涨。买不起房子的新婚夫妇只好加入租房队伍，推高房租水平，因此房价上涨最终能推动房租上涨以及通胀。\n美联储身处两难之中。一方面股市脆弱，离不开宽松货币政策。另一方面宽松货币和通胀目标不一致，而维持价格稳定是美联储法定的责任。如果通胀维持在4%以上，甚至不断升高，如果房价在供给吃紧、建筑成本和人工成本上升等因素推动下继续上涨，那么美联储将面临巨大的政治压力。\n两难之中的美联储很可能不敢下猛药治理通胀，但也不敢继续极度宽松的政策。从鲍威尔最近的表示看，美联储应该会在年底或明年初缩减资产购买（也就是所谓的taper），同时等待时机停止资产购买，最后再考虑加息。对于庞大的股市套息盘，这不是好消息。\n套息崩盘\n有套息就有崩盘。如果没有崩盘，其实也就没有套息交易。正是崩盘的风险，给予了套息交易可观的回报。\nS&P 500多头套息策略的回报率大致等同于指数上涨的斜率，斜率越陡，S&P 500套息收益越高。因为在均衡状态，风险和收益必须匹配，所以股市崩盘风险越大，S&P 500指数上涨斜率应该越高，这样才能补偿套息交易者承担的风险。因此疫情后S&P 500指数上涨斜率超过以往，恰恰说明套息崩盘风险超过了从前。\n从2018年以来，大致发生了三次股市套息崩盘：2018年一季度，2018年四季度，以及2020年一季度（见图一的三个圈圈）。崩盘的幅度一次比一次大，所需要的美联储救援力度也一次比一次大。2020年3月的崩盘已经非常壮观了，我们可以想象下次崩盘可能会更加壮观。下次崩盘可能是因为美联储意外紧缩，或者是其他冲击。一旦发生，就会像2020年3月那样发生各种恶性循环，最后需要美联储更大规模的救市。\n在套息盘成长的过程中，所有套息者都是流动性的提供者。但当套息崩盘时，他们都会立刻变成流动性的需求者。卖股票或指数的看跌期权的需要平仓，“逢低抄底”的杠杆基金需要卖股票逃命等等。股市暴跌的同时波动率会飙升，而波动率飙升又会带来新的抛压，比如风险平价基金（Risk-parity funds）需要降低股票仓位，但这也需要有人提供流动性。\n空头通常是市场下跌时流动性的供应者，但是不断上涨的大牛市早就把空头赶出市场。当崩盘发生时，人人都需要流动性，但没有人供应，所谓的“流动性蒸发”状况就形成了。正是流动性蒸发，导致美股在2020年3月发生数次熔断。\n恶性循环并不局限在股市里。股市崩盘会打击实体经济的投资信心，也会通过逆向财富效应打击个人消费（美国GDP的大头），并进而打击上市公司的利润。也就是说，美股上市公司的基本面也跟股市套息盘生死与共。当套息崩盘，股票基本面会和高企的估值一起，跟随股价一起崩溃。这样的市场，是没有长期投资价值的。对中国投资者来说，目前S&P 500最大的价值在于对冲：S&P 500的看跌期权是全球股市下跌、全球经济衰退的一份保险。\n在短期，S&P 500多头也是如履薄冰。在劳动力供应吃紧、通胀和房价上涨的宏观环境里，美联储能给这一轮股市套息牛市续命的时间已经不多了。\n崩盘以后，股市套息交易会不会再来一轮？我认为这个可能性不小。崩盘发生后，因为总需求迅速萎缩，通胀问题会迅速消失，失业问题会重返，这要求美联储重新回到救市和刺激模式。而且因为崩盘导致的资产负债表损伤，下一轮救市和刺激的力度很可能要比上一轮更大。力度还能更大吗？当然可以，美联储可以学日本央行直接进场买股票。\n只要美联储实行零利率和充足储备的货币政策，套息交易很可能还会复活。当然，未来的套息交易能不能推动股市进入新一轮牛市并再创新高，现在难以判断。反例是日本股市，虽有央行加持，但至今没有突破80年代末泡沫的高点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883388378,"gmtCreate":1631202362594,"gmtModify":1676530496386,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883388378","repostId":"1173243012","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173243012","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631201508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173243012?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 23:31","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"[Change] BlackBerry rose more than 6%, the company filed two patent applications in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173243012","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月9日，黑莓盘中涨超6%，此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请，分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。","content":"<p>On September 9, BlackBerry rose more than 6% intraday after the company submitted two patent applications in the United States, namely \"Method and System for Detecting the Movement Status of Sensor Devices\" and \"Predictor-Copy Coding Mode for Cloud Coding\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaaf6a6569dd5d570eb71556fb94faf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] BlackBerry rose more than 6%, the company filed two patent applications in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] BlackBerry rose more than 6%, the company filed two patent applications in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 23:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On September 9, BlackBerry rose more than 6% intraday after the company submitted two patent applications in the United States, namely \"Method and System for Detecting the Movement Status of Sensor Devices\" and \"Predictor-Copy Coding Mode for Cloud Coding\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaaf6a6569dd5d570eb71556fb94faf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9d40affd7144ecdfdd62b9c8b3aed5","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173243012","content_text":"9月9日，黑莓盘中涨超6%，此前公司在美国提交两项专利申请，分别为“传感器设备移动状态检测的方法和系统”以及“用于云编码的预测器-拷贝编码模式”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813894196,"gmtCreate":1630164759515,"gmtModify":1676530237106,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Weee","listText":"Weee","text":"Weee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813894196","repostId":"2162711075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2162711075","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1630140133,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162711075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-28 16:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Oil posts biggest weekly gain since June as hurricane is on the horizon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162711075","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"油企周五已经关闭了墨西哥湾59%的产能。墨西哥湾的海上油井占美国原油产量的17%，美国有超过45%的炼油产能位于墨西哥湾沿岸。","content":"<p>This Friday, Brent crude oil closed up 2.21%, up more than 11% this week, and WTI crude oil closed up 1.84%, up more than 10% this week.</p><p><b>Both posted their biggest weekly gains since June 2020.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92868c7332f99db9188d1fb6bae2183\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de070d28c85f8c199300c304e76d957c\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), a major hurricane Ida is expected to hit North America early next week,<b>Oil producers have shut down 59% of capacity in the Gulf of Mexico Friday.</b></p><p><b>Offshore wells in the Gulf of Mexico account for 17% of U.S. crude oil production, and more than 45% of U.S. refining capacity is located along the Gulf Coast.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, said:</p><p>Historically, crude oil prices have risen as hurricanes approach, although refineries don't need crude oil when they shut down during storms. Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group, an independent research consultancy, said:</p><p>Hurricanes are clearly the focus of the current market, at least in the short term. We're going to lose supply and some demand from our refineries. Furthermore,<b>The weakness of the US dollar this week has reduced the cost of buying oil for other currency holders, which has also supported oil prices to some extent.</b></p><p>In his speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged for the first time that he also supports the possible start of taper within the year, but also stressed that this cannot be interpreted as a signal that a rate hike is coming soon. He reiterated that inflation is temporary and warned that the Delta virus poses near-term risks.</p><p>The US Dollar Index closed down 0.36% at 92.70 points that day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d29271924d869edde84f8459e7eae5\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">OPEC + will hold a meeting on September 1, and many market participants expect to approve another increase in monthly production.</p><p>Energy Services Companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHI\">Baker Hughes</a>The number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by five this week to 410, the most since April 2020, the data showed. The number of active rigs increased by 25 in August, the largest increase since January and the first 12-month increase since July 2017.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil posts biggest weekly gain since June as hurricane is on the horizon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil posts biggest weekly gain since June as hurricane is on the horizon\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 16:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This Friday, Brent crude oil closed up 2.21%, up more than 11% this week, and WTI crude oil closed up 1.84%, up more than 10% this week.</p><p><b>Both posted their biggest weekly gains since June 2020.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92868c7332f99db9188d1fb6bae2183\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de070d28c85f8c199300c304e76d957c\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), a major hurricane Ida is expected to hit North America early next week,<b>Oil producers have shut down 59% of capacity in the Gulf of Mexico Friday.</b></p><p><b>Offshore wells in the Gulf of Mexico account for 17% of U.S. crude oil production, and more than 45% of U.S. refining capacity is located along the Gulf Coast.</b></p><p>Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, said:</p><p>Historically, crude oil prices have risen as hurricanes approach, although refineries don't need crude oil when they shut down during storms. Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group, an independent research consultancy, said:</p><p>Hurricanes are clearly the focus of the current market, at least in the short term. We're going to lose supply and some demand from our refineries. Furthermore,<b>The weakness of the US dollar this week has reduced the cost of buying oil for other currency holders, which has also supported oil prices to some extent.</b></p><p>In his speech at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged for the first time that he also supports the possible start of taper within the year, but also stressed that this cannot be interpreted as a signal that a rate hike is coming soon. He reiterated that inflation is temporary and warned that the Delta virus poses near-term risks.</p><p>The US Dollar Index closed down 0.36% at 92.70 points that day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d29271924d869edde84f8459e7eae5\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">OPEC + will hold a meeting on September 1, and many market participants expect to approve another increase in monthly production.</p><p>Energy Services Companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHI\">Baker Hughes</a>The number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by five this week to 410, the most since April 2020, the data showed. The number of active rigs increased by 25 in August, the largest increase since January and the first 12-month increase since July 2017.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639105\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639105","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162711075","content_text":"本周五，布伦特原油收涨2.21%，本周累涨超11%，WTI原油收涨1.84%，本周累涨超10%。\n二者均创下自2020年6月以来的最大单周涨幅。\n\n据美国安全和环境执法局(BSEE)数据，因预计下周初将有一场重大飓风Ida袭击北美，石油生产商周五已经关闭了墨西哥湾59%的产能。\n墨西哥湾的海上油井占美国原油产量的17%，美国有超过45%的炼油产能位于墨西哥湾沿岸。\n纽约瑞穗能源期货主管 Bob Yawger 表示：\n\n 从历史上看，原油价格会随着飓风的临近而上涨，尽管炼油厂在风暴期间关闭时并不需要原油。\n\n独立研究咨询公司 Commodity Research Group 高级合伙人 Andrew Lebow 称：\n\n 飓风显然是当前市场关注的焦点，至少在短期内如此。我们将失去炼油厂的供应和一些需求。\n\n此外，本周美元的走软使得其它货币持有者购买石油的成本降低，也在一定程度上支撑了油价。\n美联储主席鲍威尔周五在Jackson Hole会议上的讲话中，首度承认他也支持年内可能开始taper，但也强调这不能被解读为很快就要加息的信号。他重申了通胀是暂时的，并警告说Delta病毒带来近期风险。\n当日美元指数收跌0.36%，报92.70点。\nOPEC＋将于9月1日举行会议，不少市场人士预计或将批准再次增加月度产量。\n能源服务公司贝克休斯数据显示，本周美国活跃钻机数增加五座，至410座，为2020年4月以来最多。8月活跃钻机数增加25座，为1月以来最大增幅，这也是自2017年7月以来首次连续12个月增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"USO":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836117280,"gmtCreate":1629464653540,"gmtModify":1676530049408,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Baba go","listText":"Baba go","text":"Baba go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836117280","repostId":"1114951642","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114951642","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1629456144,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114951642?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Chinese concept stocks \"broken brothers\" welcome a heavy new friend: Alibaba","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114951642","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"港美股中概股的“破发兄弟”中，迎来了一位重磅的朋友，阿里巴巴。\n2021年8月17日，港股阿里巴巴暴跌4.77％，收报171.8港元，跌破176港元的发行价。\n就在投资者们还在“幻想破发之后必有反弹”","content":"<p>Among the \"breaking brothers\" of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong and US stocks, a heavy friend has been welcomed.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>。</p><p>On August 17, 2021, the Hong Kong stock Alibaba plummeted 4.77% to close at HK $171.8, falling below the issue price of HK $176.</p><p>Just as investors were still \"fantasizing that there will be a rebound after the break\", Alibaba fell for three consecutive days, plunging below the issue price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30635fcd352a962b4e117b89a43c093\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><b><b>Collectively broken \"Chinese beggar stocks\"</b></b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, Chinese concept stocks have a new nickname: \"Chinese beggar stocks\".</p><p>In terms of US stocks:</p><p>As of July 29, 2021, there are about 79 Chinese concept stocks that have been listed in the United States in the past three years and have not been delisted, and more than 70% of them are in a state of breaking.</p><p>June 26, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>It plummeted 25% at the opening. As of 1:45 a.m. Beijing time, the daily fresh price was quoted at US $9.8, down about 25% from the IPO price of US $13; At two o'clock in the morning, Daily Youxian plummeted to US $8.68 again, a drop of 33%, creating a disaster-level breakthrough after the listing of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>July 6, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Travel suffered a heavy setback in the United States, and the stock price fell nearly 20%, falling below the issue price.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks:</p><p>Kuaishou Technology, listed in Hong Kong on February 5, 2021, was the world's largest IPO stock in the first half of the year, with a fundraising scale of HK $48.3 billion; In addition, listed on the Hong Kong stock market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>The fundraising scale exceeds HK $23 billion, ranking fifth, sixth, and seventh in the world respectively.</p><p>However, at present, the above-mentioned four giant IPO companies have all broken deeply, among which Kuaishou nearly tripled on the first day, and then fell below the issue price of HK $115 after the \"roller coaster\".</p><p>Data shows that the China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB.US) has experienced capital outflows for two consecutive days, and the ETF has fallen by more than 40% so far this year.</p><p>The ETF had attracted record single-day inflows last month. However, analysts pointed out that due to the uncertain investment prospects of Zhonggai technology stocks, buyers who had entered the market to buy bottoms began to abandon these stocks. Coupled with some fund managers who were optimistic about Chinese concept stocks, such as Cathie Wood of Ark Investment Management Company, who aggressively reduced their holdings of Chinese concept stocks, other institutional and retail investors have begun to follow suit.</p><p><b>2、</b><b><b>Alibaba has broken many times in history</b></b></p><p>In fact, Alibaba has seen it a lot for a long time.</p><p>In 2008, Alibaba broke the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>In November 2007, Alibaba was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with B2B business as the main body, raising HK $11.6 billion, becoming the largest financing scale of Chinese Internet companies at that time. After listing, its share price soared to three times the issue price.</p><p>However, when the global economic crisis broke out in 2008, Ali's B2B business was greatly affected, and the stock price began to collapse. It broke in March 2008 and fell to a low of HK $3.42 in October, 30% lower than the issue price. Compared with the previous high of 41.4 yuan, it fell by more than 90%.</p><p>In 2012, Alibaba announced that it would be privatized at a cost of HK $19 billion at HK $13.5 per share, temporarily bidding farewell to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>In 2015, Alibaba broke its stock market in the US stock market.</p><p>On September 20, 2014, Alibaba was listed on the new york Stock Exchange in the United States, closing at US $93.89 on the first day, an increase of 38.07% from the issue price.</p><p>On August 23, 2015, the global stock market plummeted, and the U.S. stock market that opened at night was not spared. Within half an hour of opening, the three major indexes all fell by around 4%. Alibaba's stock, which continued to decline with the general trend, opened at $58.16, falling below the IPO price of $68 in one fell swoop.</p><p>Alibaba in 2015 was also in crisis. In August 2015, Alibaba's quarterly report was disappointing, with revenue increasing by 28% year-on-year and China's retail business sales increasing by 34%. These two key indicators were lower than the average expectation of previous analysts, and they were the slowest quarter in three years.</p><p>In June 2015, Ali warned analysts that the ban on online sales of lottery tickets, the transfer of small and micro finance business to Ant Financial Group, and the reduction of the fees of Juhuasuan platform would all have an impact on this quarter's revenue. According to group CFO Wu Wei in an analyst conference call, if all these effects are excluded, the company's revenue should increase by about 36% year-on-year this quarter.</p><p>After the break in 2015, Alibaba proposed a $4 billion stock repurchase plan, funded by Chairman Jack Ma and Vice Chairman Tsai Chongxin.</p><p>Interestingly, this time Alibaba's performance also fell short of expectations + the stock price continued to fall, and Alibaba still resorted to the trick of \"buyback\".</p><p>On the evening of August 3, 2021, after Alibaba announced a quarterly report on miss the market expectation, it authorized the company to increase the total repurchase plan from US $10 billion to US $15 billion, valid until the end of 2022. This repurchase plan totals US $15 billion (nearly 100 billion yuan). This is the largest repurchase program ever of Alibaba Group.</p><p>In 2015, when Alibaba's stock price broke, CEO Zhang Yong personally went off to cheer up the company.</p><p>On August 25, 2015, Zhang Yong said in a letter to employees: \"This is not the first global stock market crash; Of course, it will not be the last; Alibaba's value is reflected in our pursuit of ideals and Among the value created for customers, this value will not change with changes in stock prices. Please turn your eyes from the stock market back to customers... forget the stock price and be calm; Keep your feet on the ground and move on! \"</p><p>The reason at that time was that Alibaba was very generous to employees in terms of equity incentives at that time. Therefore, the rise and fall of stock prices had a greater impact on the personal wealth of Alibaba employees than other companies. Zhang Yong published this letter at that time. On the one hand, he expressed his confidence in the company to employees and the outside world. On the other hand, it may be that Ali employees did \"spend more and more time watching the market, which affects their work.\"</p><p>This time Alibaba's Hong Kong stock market broke, Alibaba has not seen any statement yet.</p><p>In addition, in 2019, after Alibaba returned to the Hong Kong stock market, it also broke.</p><p>In 2019, Alibaba returned to the Hong Kong stock market with an issue price of HK $176. On November 26, Alibaba closed at HK $187.60 on its first day of listing, an increase of 6.59%. The total market value is HK $4.01 trillion, exceeding the total market value of HK $3.2 trillion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>, becoming the largest stock in the Hong Kong stock market by market capitalization.</p><p>On March 18, 2020, Alibaba closed at HK $173, falling below the issue price of HK $176.</p><p>But that time, Alibaba returned to the upward trend after a short-term adjustment.</p><p>This time, Alibaba's stock price dropped to a minimum of HK $155, which is far from the issue price, and there is no sign of rebound yet. It can be regarded as \"solid\" and \"comfortable\".</p><p><b>3、</b><b><b>Do Chinese concept stocks have a future?</b></b></p><p>In terms of US stocks:</p><p>\"The future of Chinese companies listed in the United States is hard to tell. It depends on whether they can meet the accounting standards in the United States. At present, the regulation in the United States is very strict. For Chinese companies preparing to list in the United States, it is even more necessary to prepare for crisis response,\" said Chen Kaifeng, chief economist of Huisheng Financial Management.</p><p>\"In the past, due to the restrictions on the AH market listing system, some unprofitable companies with different rights to the same shares could only choose to go public in the United States. This year, domestic and foreign regulatory policies have continued to tighten, and the reform of the AH market system has created conditions for the return of Chinese concept stocks. Under the background, US stocks and Chinese concept stocks return<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>The market is the general trend. \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>Chief strategist Dai Kang said.</p><p>At a time when concept stocks in the US stock market are becoming increasingly difficult, returning to Hong Kong for listing has become the choice of many companies.</p><p>According to a Deloitte research report, benefiting from the secondary listing and the listing of new shares with different equity structures, the total amount of new share financing in Hong Kong in the first half of 2021 rose by 138% year-on-year to HK $209.7 billion. The highest record since; In the first half of 2021, the financing amount of the top four new shares all exceeded HK $20 billion. Benefiting from a number of large new shares, the average financing scale of the Hong Kong main board this year has increased significantly by 182% to HK $1.81 billion.</p><p>However, after landing on the Hong Kong stock market, these Chinese concept stocks are not comfortable.</p><p>Regarding the future trend of Hong Kong stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>Fund manager Ran Linghao believes that the performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2020 is obviously not as good as that of US stocks and A shares, but the stagflation of Hong Kong stocks in the early stage provides sufficient room for future compensatory gains, and there will be multiple kinetic energy driving Hong Kong stocks to rise in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is completely determined by the profitability of listed companies; In the next two years, the profits of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise rapidly, strongly supporting the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Some companies are also eyeing A shares, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>。</p><p>On August 12, more than a year after its listing on the U.S. stock market, Li Auto IPO again and landed in the Hong Kong stock market, becoming the successor to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>After that, the second dual-listed new car-making power company. Issue priceHK $118</p><p>Li Auto, one of the three giants of new forces, broke its share price on the first day of listing, and then fell continuously. On August 20, its value closed at HK $104.6.</p><p>Shen Yanan, president of Li Auto, said that the ideal may have to \"return to A\".</p><p>\"Li Auto U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares are all our plans to expand capital channels throughout the market, so we do not rule out the possibility of returning to A-shares.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese concept stocks \"broken brothers\" welcome a heavy new friend: Alibaba</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese concept stocks \"broken brothers\" welcome a heavy new friend: Alibaba\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-20 18:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Among the \"breaking brothers\" of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong and US stocks, a heavy friend has been welcomed.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>。</p><p>On August 17, 2021, the Hong Kong stock Alibaba plummeted 4.77% to close at HK $171.8, falling below the issue price of HK $176.</p><p>Just as investors were still \"fantasizing that there will be a rebound after the break\", Alibaba fell for three consecutive days, plunging below the issue price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30635fcd352a962b4e117b89a43c093\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><b><b>Collectively broken \"Chinese beggar stocks\"</b></b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, Chinese concept stocks have a new nickname: \"Chinese beggar stocks\".</p><p>In terms of US stocks:</p><p>As of July 29, 2021, there are about 79 Chinese concept stocks that have been listed in the United States in the past three years and have not been delisted, and more than 70% of them are in a state of breaking.</p><p>June 26, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>It plummeted 25% at the opening. As of 1:45 a.m. Beijing time, the daily fresh price was quoted at US $9.8, down about 25% from the IPO price of US $13; At two o'clock in the morning, Daily Youxian plummeted to US $8.68 again, a drop of 33%, creating a disaster-level breakthrough after the listing of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>July 6, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Travel suffered a heavy setback in the United States, and the stock price fell nearly 20%, falling below the issue price.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks:</p><p>Kuaishou Technology, listed in Hong Kong on February 5, 2021, was the world's largest IPO stock in the first half of the year, with a fundraising scale of HK $48.3 billion; In addition, listed on the Hong Kong stock market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>The fundraising scale exceeds HK $23 billion, ranking fifth, sixth, and seventh in the world respectively.</p><p>However, at present, the above-mentioned four giant IPO companies have all broken deeply, among which Kuaishou nearly tripled on the first day, and then fell below the issue price of HK $115 after the \"roller coaster\".</p><p>Data shows that the China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB.US) has experienced capital outflows for two consecutive days, and the ETF has fallen by more than 40% so far this year.</p><p>The ETF had attracted record single-day inflows last month. However, analysts pointed out that due to the uncertain investment prospects of Zhonggai technology stocks, buyers who had entered the market to buy bottoms began to abandon these stocks. Coupled with some fund managers who were optimistic about Chinese concept stocks, such as Cathie Wood of Ark Investment Management Company, who aggressively reduced their holdings of Chinese concept stocks, other institutional and retail investors have begun to follow suit.</p><p><b>2、</b><b><b>Alibaba has broken many times in history</b></b></p><p>In fact, Alibaba has seen it a lot for a long time.</p><p>In 2008, Alibaba broke the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>In November 2007, Alibaba was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with B2B business as the main body, raising HK $11.6 billion, becoming the largest financing scale of Chinese Internet companies at that time. After listing, its share price soared to three times the issue price.</p><p>However, when the global economic crisis broke out in 2008, Ali's B2B business was greatly affected, and the stock price began to collapse. It broke in March 2008 and fell to a low of HK $3.42 in October, 30% lower than the issue price. Compared with the previous high of 41.4 yuan, it fell by more than 90%.</p><p>In 2012, Alibaba announced that it would be privatized at a cost of HK $19 billion at HK $13.5 per share, temporarily bidding farewell to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>In 2015, Alibaba broke its stock market in the US stock market.</p><p>On September 20, 2014, Alibaba was listed on the new york Stock Exchange in the United States, closing at US $93.89 on the first day, an increase of 38.07% from the issue price.</p><p>On August 23, 2015, the global stock market plummeted, and the U.S. stock market that opened at night was not spared. Within half an hour of opening, the three major indexes all fell by around 4%. Alibaba's stock, which continued to decline with the general trend, opened at $58.16, falling below the IPO price of $68 in one fell swoop.</p><p>Alibaba in 2015 was also in crisis. In August 2015, Alibaba's quarterly report was disappointing, with revenue increasing by 28% year-on-year and China's retail business sales increasing by 34%. These two key indicators were lower than the average expectation of previous analysts, and they were the slowest quarter in three years.</p><p>In June 2015, Ali warned analysts that the ban on online sales of lottery tickets, the transfer of small and micro finance business to Ant Financial Group, and the reduction of the fees of Juhuasuan platform would all have an impact on this quarter's revenue. According to group CFO Wu Wei in an analyst conference call, if all these effects are excluded, the company's revenue should increase by about 36% year-on-year this quarter.</p><p>After the break in 2015, Alibaba proposed a $4 billion stock repurchase plan, funded by Chairman Jack Ma and Vice Chairman Tsai Chongxin.</p><p>Interestingly, this time Alibaba's performance also fell short of expectations + the stock price continued to fall, and Alibaba still resorted to the trick of \"buyback\".</p><p>On the evening of August 3, 2021, after Alibaba announced a quarterly report on miss the market expectation, it authorized the company to increase the total repurchase plan from US $10 billion to US $15 billion, valid until the end of 2022. This repurchase plan totals US $15 billion (nearly 100 billion yuan). This is the largest repurchase program ever of Alibaba Group.</p><p>In 2015, when Alibaba's stock price broke, CEO Zhang Yong personally went off to cheer up the company.</p><p>On August 25, 2015, Zhang Yong said in a letter to employees: \"This is not the first global stock market crash; Of course, it will not be the last; Alibaba's value is reflected in our pursuit of ideals and Among the value created for customers, this value will not change with changes in stock prices. Please turn your eyes from the stock market back to customers... forget the stock price and be calm; Keep your feet on the ground and move on! \"</p><p>The reason at that time was that Alibaba was very generous to employees in terms of equity incentives at that time. Therefore, the rise and fall of stock prices had a greater impact on the personal wealth of Alibaba employees than other companies. Zhang Yong published this letter at that time. On the one hand, he expressed his confidence in the company to employees and the outside world. On the other hand, it may be that Ali employees did \"spend more and more time watching the market, which affects their work.\"</p><p>This time Alibaba's Hong Kong stock market broke, Alibaba has not seen any statement yet.</p><p>In addition, in 2019, after Alibaba returned to the Hong Kong stock market, it also broke.</p><p>In 2019, Alibaba returned to the Hong Kong stock market with an issue price of HK $176. On November 26, Alibaba closed at HK $187.60 on its first day of listing, an increase of 6.59%. The total market value is HK $4.01 trillion, exceeding the total market value of HK $3.2 trillion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>, becoming the largest stock in the Hong Kong stock market by market capitalization.</p><p>On March 18, 2020, Alibaba closed at HK $173, falling below the issue price of HK $176.</p><p>But that time, Alibaba returned to the upward trend after a short-term adjustment.</p><p>This time, Alibaba's stock price dropped to a minimum of HK $155, which is far from the issue price, and there is no sign of rebound yet. It can be regarded as \"solid\" and \"comfortable\".</p><p><b>3、</b><b><b>Do Chinese concept stocks have a future?</b></b></p><p>In terms of US stocks:</p><p>\"The future of Chinese companies listed in the United States is hard to tell. It depends on whether they can meet the accounting standards in the United States. At present, the regulation in the United States is very strict. For Chinese companies preparing to list in the United States, it is even more necessary to prepare for crisis response,\" said Chen Kaifeng, chief economist of Huisheng Financial Management.</p><p>\"In the past, due to the restrictions on the AH market listing system, some unprofitable companies with different rights to the same shares could only choose to go public in the United States. This year, domestic and foreign regulatory policies have continued to tighten, and the reform of the AH market system has created conditions for the return of Chinese concept stocks. Under the background, US stocks and Chinese concept stocks return<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>The market is the general trend. \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>Chief strategist Dai Kang said.</p><p>At a time when concept stocks in the US stock market are becoming increasingly difficult, returning to Hong Kong for listing has become the choice of many companies.</p><p>According to a Deloitte research report, benefiting from the secondary listing and the listing of new shares with different equity structures, the total amount of new share financing in Hong Kong in the first half of 2021 rose by 138% year-on-year to HK $209.7 billion. The highest record since; In the first half of 2021, the financing amount of the top four new shares all exceeded HK $20 billion. Benefiting from a number of large new shares, the average financing scale of the Hong Kong main board this year has increased significantly by 182% to HK $1.81 billion.</p><p>However, after landing on the Hong Kong stock market, these Chinese concept stocks are not comfortable.</p><p>Regarding the future trend of Hong Kong stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>Fund manager Ran Linghao believes that the performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2020 is obviously not as good as that of US stocks and A shares, but the stagflation of Hong Kong stocks in the early stage provides sufficient room for future compensatory gains, and there will be multiple kinetic energy driving Hong Kong stocks to rise in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is completely determined by the profitability of listed companies; In the next two years, the profits of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise rapidly, strongly supporting the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>Some companies are also eyeing A shares, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>。</p><p>On August 12, more than a year after its listing on the U.S. stock market, Li Auto IPO again and landed in the Hong Kong stock market, becoming the successor to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>After that, the second dual-listed new car-making power company. Issue priceHK $118</p><p>Li Auto, one of the three giants of new forces, broke its share price on the first day of listing, and then fell continuously. On August 20, its value closed at HK $104.6.</p><p>Shen Yanan, president of Li Auto, said that the ideal may have to \"return to A\".</p><p>\"Li Auto U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares are all our plans to expand capital channels throughout the market, so we do not rule out the possibility of returning to A-shares.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7064c4d7d0e0e65c6e1138157a714384","relate_stocks":{"TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114951642","content_text":"港美股中概股的“破发兄弟”中，迎来了一位重磅的朋友，阿里巴巴。\n2021年8月17日，港股阿里巴巴暴跌4.77％，收报171.8港元，跌破176港元的发行价。\n就在投资者们还在“幻想破发之后必有反弹”之际，阿里巴巴又连续三日下跌，在发行价下方断崖俯冲。\n\n1、集体破发的“中丐股”\n今年以来，中概股有了新的诨号：“中丐股”。\n美股方面：\n截至2021年7月29日，近三年赴美上市并且目前未退市的中概股约有79家，其中有70%以上的企业处于破发状态。\n2021年6月26日，每日优鲜开盘暴跌25%，截至北京时间凌晨1：45，每日优鲜报价9.8美元，较IPO价为13美元下跌约25%；凌晨两点，每日优鲜再度暴跌至8.68美元，跌幅达33%，制造了中概股上市后堪称灾难级的破发现场。\n2021年7月6日，滴滴出行在美遭遇重挫，股价跌近20%，跌破发行价。\n港股方面：\n2021年2月5日在香港上市的快手科技是上半年全球最大IPO个股，募资规模483亿港元；另外，在港股上市的京东物流、百度集团、哔哩哔哩的募资规模都超过230亿港元，分别位列全球第五、第六、第七位。\n然而，当前上述四家巨无霸IPO的公司悉数深度破发，其中快手首日上涨近两倍，之后走出的“过山车”后，跌破115港元的发行价。\n数据显示，中国海外互联网ETF(KWEB.US)已经连续两天出现资金流出，该ETF今年至今为止已下跌超40%。\n该ETF曾在上个月吸引了创纪录的单日资金流入。然而，分析师指出，因中概科技股的投资前景不明，曾经入场抄底的买家开始放弃这些股票。再加上一些曾经看好中概股的基金经理，如Ark投资管理公司的Cathie Wood激进减持中概股，其他的机构及散户投资者也开始纷纷效仿。\n2、阿里巴巴史上多次破发\n破发什么的，其实阿里巴巴早就见得多了。\n2008年，阿里巴巴在港股破发过。\n2007年11月，阿里巴巴以B2B业务作为主体在港交所上市，募资116亿港元，成为当时中国互联网公司融资规模之最。上市后，其股价曾飙涨至发行价3倍。\n然而，2008年全球经济危机爆发，阿里B2B业务受到巨大影响，股价开始崩盘。2008年3月破发，10月跌至3.42港元低位，较发行价跌去30%。与此前41.4元高位相比跌超90%。\n2012年，阿里巴巴宣布以13.5港元/股耗资190亿港元进行私有化，暂时告别港交所。\n2015年，阿里巴巴在美股破发。\n2014年9月20日，阿里巴巴在美国纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，首日报收于93.89美元，较发行价上涨38.07%。\n2015年8 月 23 日，全球股市大跌，夜间开盘的美股也未能幸免，开盘半小时内三大指数跌幅均在 4% 上下。随大势继续下行的阿里巴巴股票开盘即报 58.16 美元，一举跌破了 IPO 发行价 68 美元。\n2015年的阿里巴巴也是身陷危机。2015年8月，阿里巴巴的季度报告令人失望，营收同比增长 28%、中国零售业务销售额增长 34%，这两大关键指标都低于先前分析师的平均预期，而且是三年来增速最慢的一季。\n2015年 6 月，阿里就曾向分析师们发出警告称，彩票在线销售被禁、将小微金融业务划归至蚂蚁金服集团，以及聚划算平台收费的降低，都将会对本季度的营收产生影响。根据集团 CFO 武卫在分析师电话会议上的说法，如果把这些影响都剔除，公司的营收本季度应同比增长 36% 左右。\n2015年那次破发后，阿里巴巴提出了一项 40 亿美元的股票回购计划，资金来自董事局主席马云及副主席蔡崇信。\n有意思的是，这一次阿里巴巴同样是业绩不及预期+股价持续下跌，阿里照样祭出“回购”这一招。\n2021年8月3日晚，阿里巴巴公布一份不及市场预期的季报后，授权公司将回购计划总额从100亿美元提升至150亿美元，有效期到2022年底。这项总额150亿美元（近1,000亿元人民币）的回购计划。这是阿里巴巴集团有史以来最大规模回购计划。\n2015年，阿里巴巴股价破发之际，CEO张勇亲自下场为公司打气。\n2015年8月25日，张勇在致员工的信中表示：“这不是第一次全球性的股灾；当然，也不会是最后一次；阿里巴巴的价值，体现在我们对理想的追求和为客户所创造的价值当中，这个价值不会随股价的变化而改变。请大家把眼光从股市回到客户身上……忘掉股价，心平气和；脚踏实地，继续前进！”\n彼时原因在于：当时的阿里巴巴在股权激励方面对员工非常慷慨，因此，股价涨跌对阿里员工个人财富的影响面及影响程度也较其它公司更大。张勇当时发表这封信，一方面是向员工及外界表达了对公司的信心，另一方面，可能是阿里员工的确“用于看盘的时间越来越多了，影响到工作”。\n此次阿里巴巴港股破发，暂时未看到阿里巴巴方面有表态。\n此外，2019年，阿里巴巴重回港股后，也破发过。\n2019年阿里巴巴重返香港股市，发行价176港元，11月26日，阿里巴巴上市首日报收187.60港元，上涨6.59%。总市值为4.01万亿港元，超过总市值3.2万亿港元的腾讯控股，成为香港股市市值第一的股票。\n2020年3月18日，阿里巴巴收报173港元，跌破176港元的发行价。\n不过那一次，阿里巴巴短期调整后重回升势。\n这一次，阿里巴巴股价最低下探到155港元，距离发行价已经相去较远，而且尚未见反弹迹象，算是破“扎实”，破“安逸”了。\n3、中概股还有未来吗？\n美股方面：\n“在美国上市的中国公司前景很难说，要看是否能够符合美国的会计标准，目前美国的监管可谓非常严格。这对于准备在美上市的中国企业来说，更需做好危机应对准备。”美国汇盛金融管理公司首席经济学家陈凯丰说。\n“过去由于受AH市场上市制度限制影响，部分未盈利、同股不同权企业只能选择赴美上市。在今年国内外监管政策持续收紧，以及AH市场制度改革为中概股回归创造条件的背景下，美股中概股回归中国资本市场是大势所趋。”广发证券首席策略分析师戴康说。\n在美股中概股日益艰难之际，回港上市成为不少企业的选择。\n德勤研究报告称，受惠于第二上市和不同股权架构新股上市，2021年上半年香港新股融资总额同比上涨138%，达到2097亿港元，融资额突破了2011年同期的历史高点，为多年以来最高纪录；2021年上半年，前四名新股融资额都超过200亿港元，受惠于多只大型新股，使得今年香港主板平均融资规模大幅提升182%到18.1亿港元。\n然而，登陆港股之后，这些中概股也并不舒服。\n对于未来港股市场的走势，恒生科技ETF基金经理冉凌浩认为，2020年港股表现明显不如美股及A股，但港股前期的滞胀正是为将来的补涨提供了充足的空间，未来也将会有多重动能驱动港股上涨。长期来看，港股市场走势完全由上市公司盈利水平决定；未来两年，港股上市公司盈利有望快速上行，有力支撑港股走势。\n也有公司盯上了A股，如理想汽车。\n8月12日，在美股上市后一年多后，理想汽车再度IPO，登陆港股市场，成为继小鹏汽车之后，第二家双重上市的造车新势力企业。发行价118港元\n新势力三巨头之一的理想汽车，上市首日便破发，随后连续下跌，价值8月20日，收报104.6港元。\n理想汽车总裁沈亚楠表示，理想可能要“回A”。\n“理想汽车美股、港股、A股都是我们整盘扩展资金渠道的规划，所以我们不排除回归A股的可能。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838608087,"gmtCreate":1629388257549,"gmtModify":1676530026718,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838608087","repostId":"1132455826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132455826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629378280,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132455826?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"If the Federal Reserve wants to \"close water\", will U.S. stocks really fall? How much?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132455826","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美股可能受市场情绪影响短期下跌，但想要大跌下去的话，可能不会大。","content":"<p>A long-discussed taper issue has once again frightened the global financial market.</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting were released, U.S. stocks accelerated their decline late last night, which in turn triggered a huge shock in the global financial market, with iron ore, energy, non-ferrous metals and other commodities plummeting across the board. The Japanese and Korean stock markets followed the sharp drop this morning, and the Hong Kong stock market relayed at midday in the afternoon, and then<b>In the afternoon, European stock markets also suffered, and almost no one in the entire financial market was spared.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7c5fddb05c7caa94a3b1f6ec9c93df7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the published minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the Federal Reserve explicitly discussed Taper (tapering bond purchases) for the first time, and also set up a special chapter on \"Discussing Asset Purchases\".</p><p><b>From civil discussion to official clarification for the first time and giving a more specific time, this signal has almost become the source of all panic.</b></p><p>It seems that it is a consensus conclusion that the water collection time is advanced, but the question is, the Federal Reserve has been erratic on this issue many times. This time, can it really press this \"nuclear button\" that may have been changed long ago?</p><p><i><b>01</b></i><b>High-fever inflation</b></p><p>The minutes of the Federal Reserve did not make any detailed decisions, but only said that the price stability target and employment target were close to satisfactory levels. But as always, among members \"<b>Differences that remain</b>\"The main problem is that many people still think that\"<b>The rise in inflation is temporary</b>”。</p><p>To be honest, the Federal Reserve has been sticking to Keynesianism recently, and will \"<b>Full employment</b>\"At the top of the list, inflation data now seems to be a vassal.</p><p>The loose monetary policy, huge fiscal subsidies, and recovering economy in the United States have continuously stimulated the growth of CPI. This indicator has exceeded the 2% threshold since March this year, and the year-on-year growth rate in June and July reached a historical high of 5.4%, showing signs of overheating economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed5b554b6bc3ec62446ff022141ee8c\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The American people have long been miserable in the face of rising prices. Although there are still many residents who can receive generous unemployment benefits, the prices of consumer goods such as meat, fruits and vegetables have soared wildly, which makes the purchasing power of the benefits continue to decline.</p><p>Now the 1.2 trillion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion US dollars budget spending plans passed by the Senate will continue to stimulate the growth of raw material prices related to infrastructure in the United States and even around the world, which has laid the possibility of further increases in inflation in the future.</p><p>In fact, the supply shortage is also reflected in PPI. In July, PPI rose by 7.8% year-on-year. The gap between PPI and CPI continues to widen, and corporate profits are compressed, which may be transmitted to consumer prices in the later period.</p><p>From this view<b>, the pressure of inflation is still very great, and it may not be able to fall back to normal levels as smoothly as expected. Judging from this aspect, the instability of CPI growth will not be good news for the economy and the stock market.</b></p><p>It stands to reason that if the inflation data is too high, the Fed should adopt tightening measures to control it, but the Fed has not given clear instructions. Instead, he constantly reassured the market that \"it is still far away from rate hike\".</p><p>Behind this, in addition to the impact of the re-outbreak of the Delta epidemic, it is also related to the fact that the current rise and fall of employment data has not yet been reassuring.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e46fbe9106463d3d09556d36fbc3cd2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But more importantly,<b>Taking strong medicine for serious illness is actually a high-risk treatment as a last resort, and it is not worry-free as soon as you win. Now, the United States has \"taken strong medicine\" to support the rising economic recovery through super-large-scale water release. Although it has achieved great results, the sequelae are enormous. One is extremely dependent, and the other is high inflation and fever.</b></p><p>It is precisely for this reason that the Federal Reserve has been erratic and hesitant in its consideration of collecting water. Because it knows that once the drug is stopped, the cost may be very high.</p><p><i><b>02</b></i><b>Is the economy really overheating?</b></p><p>In fact, the strength of the U.S. economy is not strong enough to exceed the Fed's expectations in some performances, and there are contradictions between different data.</p><p>The first is the steady recovery of the U.S. manufacturing industry. The manufacturing PMI recorded a new high of 63.40 in July, exceeding expectations.</p><p><b>But the employment situation, which the Fed is most concerned about, seems to have not touched its threshold.</b></p><p>Although the unemployment rate has dropped significantly since the beginning of the year and has now fallen back to 5.4%, which is better than the expected 5.7%, there is still a certain distance from the 3-4% before the epidemic. In addition, in the week of August 12, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time was 375,000, which is still far from the pre-epidemic average of 200,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e549a63987d92ac38cbcdadb19aa84\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of job vacancies is increasing, which shows that the increase in employment is not enough to make up for the demand for jobs, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market is becoming increasingly serious.</p><p>The $1.9 trillion relief bill promoted by Biden in March did not stop until September, and eligible residents can receive high relief payments. Some residents want to earn money while lying down, but of course they have no idea about finding a job. This has inhibited the recovery of the local job market to some extent, making the supply of corporate products unable to increase, and the market supply and demand are still tight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df72758e634507d170c77cc7b60ecd1\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, consumption data has not yet met expectations. The U.S. Department of Commerce recently announced retail sales data for July, which fell by 1.1% month-on-month, compared with an increase of 0.6% in the previous value.</p><p>With personal consumption expenditures accounting for about 70% of the U.S. economy, the data is closely watched by the market as a gauge of the overall economic health. The weak growth of the data shows that U.S. consumption has not yet recovered its original and expected growth. If subsidies are stopped in the later period, consumption may lose its growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c32bcf506c08d16090a67fb55ac030\" tg-width=\"473\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the epidemic, the scale of U.S. fiscal expenditures has continued to increase. In fiscal year 2021, U.S. fiscal expenditures will reach 7.7 trillion U.S. dollars. The expenditures are mainly used for unemployment benefits, nutrition assistance, and COVID-19 relief projects.</p><p>The Senate also recently passed Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure package and a $3.5 trillion budget plan mainly focused on fighting poverty and improving the climate environment. If it successfully passes the review of the House of Representatives in the later period, the high fiscal expenditure will be increased again.</p><p>In fact, Biden's overall policy has not exceeded the consistent philosophy of the Democratic Party. It is still to stimulate the economy through high fiscal expenditures, and the sources of funds he relies on are through bond issuance and tax increases. If the tax increase can't make up for the above expenditure amount, it can only rely on issuing bonds.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates low, it will be more conducive to the implementation of proactive fiscal policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf4374f269e5ac0784aed8157abc09\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to research by West China Securities, the United States experienced four interest rate cut cycles from 1984 to 2015. During these four periods, when the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, it faced a major economic downturn. Except for the period from 1984 to 1986, the latter three periods experienced economic recession shortly after the interest rate cut. In the middle and late stages of the interest rate cut, the economy gradually recovered and regained its growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/879dbfed5c68d676a0a4d688b52dd2a9\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Using the historical trajectory to this day, the rate hike of the United States should only come when the economy itself returns to a stable and normal growth rate before rate hike's pace comes, but from the current performance (such as consumption and employment indicators) may not have reached the time to consider rate hike.</p><p><b>However, in the face of high inflation rates, it may be inevitable for the Fed to shift to an anti-inflation model. The next employment data will be the key. If the unemployment rate falls back to around 5%, taper will come quickly.</b></p><p><i><b>03</b></i><b>Will U.S. stocks plummet this time?</b></p><p>Regarding the topic of whether U.S. stocks will jump, everyone has been discussed countless times and slapped in the face countless times.</p><p>So far, except for the sudden impact of the epidemic last year, the U.S. stock market has been in a bull market for 12 years. Even against the background of increasing calls for water withdrawal and obvious volatility in overseas markets, the three major indexes continue to hit new highs.</p><p>But this time compared with the past,<b>It is a more complex macro environment, higher inflation problems, and a larger debt scale. If it is really the beginning of a water collection cycle, can U.S. stocks still withstand it as always?</b></p><p>The lowest influencing factors of financial market fluctuations are economic and liquidity levels.</p><p>On the economic front, although there are many side effects and big problems, on the whole, the strong economic recovery of the United States is a deterministic direction, and the continuous economic recovery will definitely gradually reflect in the performance growth at the enterprise level, which is also the force supporting the stock price of enterprises.</p><p>The overall performance of U.S. stocks in the first quarter began to exceed expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of EPS in major industries such as automobiles, durable goods, retail, media, finance, healthcare, information technology, and raw materials was very high. In addition to the low base caused by the impact of the epidemic last year, the rapid economic recovery also played a big role.</p><p><b>In the second quarter, the performance growth shown by companies in many industries also continued to be stronger than expected.</b></p><p>Now institutions expect the growth rate of U.S. stocks' earnings consistency in 2021 to be as high as 38% (50% + in the first half of the year), and it is expected to return to pre-epidemic levels in 2022. Although the high growth rate brought about by last year's low base will decline month by month in the second half of the year, the market expects that the profit growth rate in the third quarter will still be 24%, which is still considerable overall.<b>Correspondingly, the current valuation of U.S. stocks does not seem too expensive.</b></p><p>As of now, the P/E of the Dow is 26.4 times, the Nasdaq is 40.3 times, and the S&P 500 is 27.2 times. Except for the Nasdaq, it is generally not expensive compared to other major markets.</p><p>And the current P/E of the major super giants that occupy a large weight is not high. Among the top 20 with the largest market value, except for Tesla, the valuations of the rest are really low, exceeding many people's expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329eb3056a9b9f6a55ff253a1f0bf801\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of liquidity, in fact, the U.S. dollar serves as a global currency anchor. Even if liquidity is tightened slightly, it has never been a big problem for U.S. stocks, because global funds will be replenished. This has happened countless times in the past. Unless the Federal Reserve wants to close water super sharply, the possibility of a sharp decline in U.S. stocks will be very small.</p><p>In the past year, there have been many macro risk events, and the market has also experienced substantial corrections. However, global funds still prefer larger stock markets, especially the US stock market, which has always been the top priority. Under such circumstances, even if there is a bubble in the U.S. stock market, it is difficult to lose financial support, not to mention that the economic fundamentals are not bad.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a966f1e4c95f2e2355d57a28159ecb3\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Differentiation of capital, stock and bond flows in the global market in 2021. Source: Kaiyuan Securities)</p><p>Overall, the improving fundamentals, the still loose monetary environment, the passable valuation, and the preference of global funds are the underlying logic that U.S. stocks have always been easy to rise but difficult to fall.</p><p>Under the current trend, these underlying factors have not changed, so U.S. stocks may fall in the short term due to market sentiment, but if they want to fall sharply, it may not be big.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If the Federal Reserve wants to \"close water\", will U.S. stocks really fall? How much?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf the Federal Reserve wants to \"close water\", will U.S. stocks really fall? How much?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 21:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A long-discussed taper issue has once again frightened the global financial market.</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting were released, U.S. stocks accelerated their decline late last night, which in turn triggered a huge shock in the global financial market, with iron ore, energy, non-ferrous metals and other commodities plummeting across the board. The Japanese and Korean stock markets followed the sharp drop this morning, and the Hong Kong stock market relayed at midday in the afternoon, and then<b>In the afternoon, European stock markets also suffered, and almost no one in the entire financial market was spared.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7c5fddb05c7caa94a3b1f6ec9c93df7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the published minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the Federal Reserve explicitly discussed Taper (tapering bond purchases) for the first time, and also set up a special chapter on \"Discussing Asset Purchases\".</p><p><b>From civil discussion to official clarification for the first time and giving a more specific time, this signal has almost become the source of all panic.</b></p><p>It seems that it is a consensus conclusion that the water collection time is advanced, but the question is, the Federal Reserve has been erratic on this issue many times. This time, can it really press this \"nuclear button\" that may have been changed long ago?</p><p><i><b>01</b></i><b>High-fever inflation</b></p><p>The minutes of the Federal Reserve did not make any detailed decisions, but only said that the price stability target and employment target were close to satisfactory levels. But as always, among members \"<b>Differences that remain</b>\"The main problem is that many people still think that\"<b>The rise in inflation is temporary</b>”。</p><p>To be honest, the Federal Reserve has been sticking to Keynesianism recently, and will \"<b>Full employment</b>\"At the top of the list, inflation data now seems to be a vassal.</p><p>The loose monetary policy, huge fiscal subsidies, and recovering economy in the United States have continuously stimulated the growth of CPI. This indicator has exceeded the 2% threshold since March this year, and the year-on-year growth rate in June and July reached a historical high of 5.4%, showing signs of overheating economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed5b554b6bc3ec62446ff022141ee8c\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The American people have long been miserable in the face of rising prices. Although there are still many residents who can receive generous unemployment benefits, the prices of consumer goods such as meat, fruits and vegetables have soared wildly, which makes the purchasing power of the benefits continue to decline.</p><p>Now the 1.2 trillion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion US dollars budget spending plans passed by the Senate will continue to stimulate the growth of raw material prices related to infrastructure in the United States and even around the world, which has laid the possibility of further increases in inflation in the future.</p><p>In fact, the supply shortage is also reflected in PPI. In July, PPI rose by 7.8% year-on-year. The gap between PPI and CPI continues to widen, and corporate profits are compressed, which may be transmitted to consumer prices in the later period.</p><p>From this view<b>, the pressure of inflation is still very great, and it may not be able to fall back to normal levels as smoothly as expected. Judging from this aspect, the instability of CPI growth will not be good news for the economy and the stock market.</b></p><p>It stands to reason that if the inflation data is too high, the Fed should adopt tightening measures to control it, but the Fed has not given clear instructions. Instead, he constantly reassured the market that \"it is still far away from rate hike\".</p><p>Behind this, in addition to the impact of the re-outbreak of the Delta epidemic, it is also related to the fact that the current rise and fall of employment data has not yet been reassuring.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e46fbe9106463d3d09556d36fbc3cd2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But more importantly,<b>Taking strong medicine for serious illness is actually a high-risk treatment as a last resort, and it is not worry-free as soon as you win. Now, the United States has \"taken strong medicine\" to support the rising economic recovery through super-large-scale water release. Although it has achieved great results, the sequelae are enormous. One is extremely dependent, and the other is high inflation and fever.</b></p><p>It is precisely for this reason that the Federal Reserve has been erratic and hesitant in its consideration of collecting water. Because it knows that once the drug is stopped, the cost may be very high.</p><p><i><b>02</b></i><b>Is the economy really overheating?</b></p><p>In fact, the strength of the U.S. economy is not strong enough to exceed the Fed's expectations in some performances, and there are contradictions between different data.</p><p>The first is the steady recovery of the U.S. manufacturing industry. The manufacturing PMI recorded a new high of 63.40 in July, exceeding expectations.</p><p><b>But the employment situation, which the Fed is most concerned about, seems to have not touched its threshold.</b></p><p>Although the unemployment rate has dropped significantly since the beginning of the year and has now fallen back to 5.4%, which is better than the expected 5.7%, there is still a certain distance from the 3-4% before the epidemic. In addition, in the week of August 12, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time was 375,000, which is still far from the pre-epidemic average of 200,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e549a63987d92ac38cbcdadb19aa84\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of job vacancies is increasing, which shows that the increase in employment is not enough to make up for the demand for jobs, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market is becoming increasingly serious.</p><p>The $1.9 trillion relief bill promoted by Biden in March did not stop until September, and eligible residents can receive high relief payments. Some residents want to earn money while lying down, but of course they have no idea about finding a job. This has inhibited the recovery of the local job market to some extent, making the supply of corporate products unable to increase, and the market supply and demand are still tight.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df72758e634507d170c77cc7b60ecd1\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, consumption data has not yet met expectations. The U.S. Department of Commerce recently announced retail sales data for July, which fell by 1.1% month-on-month, compared with an increase of 0.6% in the previous value.</p><p>With personal consumption expenditures accounting for about 70% of the U.S. economy, the data is closely watched by the market as a gauge of the overall economic health. The weak growth of the data shows that U.S. consumption has not yet recovered its original and expected growth. If subsidies are stopped in the later period, consumption may lose its growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c32bcf506c08d16090a67fb55ac030\" tg-width=\"473\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the epidemic, the scale of U.S. fiscal expenditures has continued to increase. In fiscal year 2021, U.S. fiscal expenditures will reach 7.7 trillion U.S. dollars. The expenditures are mainly used for unemployment benefits, nutrition assistance, and COVID-19 relief projects.</p><p>The Senate also recently passed Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure package and a $3.5 trillion budget plan mainly focused on fighting poverty and improving the climate environment. If it successfully passes the review of the House of Representatives in the later period, the high fiscal expenditure will be increased again.</p><p>In fact, Biden's overall policy has not exceeded the consistent philosophy of the Democratic Party. It is still to stimulate the economy through high fiscal expenditures, and the sources of funds he relies on are through bond issuance and tax increases. If the tax increase can't make up for the above expenditure amount, it can only rely on issuing bonds.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates low, it will be more conducive to the implementation of proactive fiscal policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6daf4374f269e5ac0784aed8157abc09\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to research by West China Securities, the United States experienced four interest rate cut cycles from 1984 to 2015. During these four periods, when the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, it faced a major economic downturn. Except for the period from 1984 to 1986, the latter three periods experienced economic recession shortly after the interest rate cut. In the middle and late stages of the interest rate cut, the economy gradually recovered and regained its growth momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/879dbfed5c68d676a0a4d688b52dd2a9\" tg-width=\"429\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Using the historical trajectory to this day, the rate hike of the United States should only come when the economy itself returns to a stable and normal growth rate before rate hike's pace comes, but from the current performance (such as consumption and employment indicators) may not have reached the time to consider rate hike.</p><p><b>However, in the face of high inflation rates, it may be inevitable for the Fed to shift to an anti-inflation model. The next employment data will be the key. If the unemployment rate falls back to around 5%, taper will come quickly.</b></p><p><i><b>03</b></i><b>Will U.S. stocks plummet this time?</b></p><p>Regarding the topic of whether U.S. stocks will jump, everyone has been discussed countless times and slapped in the face countless times.</p><p>So far, except for the sudden impact of the epidemic last year, the U.S. stock market has been in a bull market for 12 years. Even against the background of increasing calls for water withdrawal and obvious volatility in overseas markets, the three major indexes continue to hit new highs.</p><p>But this time compared with the past,<b>It is a more complex macro environment, higher inflation problems, and a larger debt scale. If it is really the beginning of a water collection cycle, can U.S. stocks still withstand it as always?</b></p><p>The lowest influencing factors of financial market fluctuations are economic and liquidity levels.</p><p>On the economic front, although there are many side effects and big problems, on the whole, the strong economic recovery of the United States is a deterministic direction, and the continuous economic recovery will definitely gradually reflect in the performance growth at the enterprise level, which is also the force supporting the stock price of enterprises.</p><p>The overall performance of U.S. stocks in the first quarter began to exceed expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of EPS in major industries such as automobiles, durable goods, retail, media, finance, healthcare, information technology, and raw materials was very high. In addition to the low base caused by the impact of the epidemic last year, the rapid economic recovery also played a big role.</p><p><b>In the second quarter, the performance growth shown by companies in many industries also continued to be stronger than expected.</b></p><p>Now institutions expect the growth rate of U.S. stocks' earnings consistency in 2021 to be as high as 38% (50% + in the first half of the year), and it is expected to return to pre-epidemic levels in 2022. Although the high growth rate brought about by last year's low base will decline month by month in the second half of the year, the market expects that the profit growth rate in the third quarter will still be 24%, which is still considerable overall.<b>Correspondingly, the current valuation of U.S. stocks does not seem too expensive.</b></p><p>As of now, the P/E of the Dow is 26.4 times, the Nasdaq is 40.3 times, and the S&P 500 is 27.2 times. Except for the Nasdaq, it is generally not expensive compared to other major markets.</p><p>And the current P/E of the major super giants that occupy a large weight is not high. Among the top 20 with the largest market value, except for Tesla, the valuations of the rest are really low, exceeding many people's expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329eb3056a9b9f6a55ff253a1f0bf801\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of liquidity, in fact, the U.S. dollar serves as a global currency anchor. Even if liquidity is tightened slightly, it has never been a big problem for U.S. stocks, because global funds will be replenished. This has happened countless times in the past. Unless the Federal Reserve wants to close water super sharply, the possibility of a sharp decline in U.S. stocks will be very small.</p><p>In the past year, there have been many macro risk events, and the market has also experienced substantial corrections. However, global funds still prefer larger stock markets, especially the US stock market, which has always been the top priority. Under such circumstances, even if there is a bubble in the U.S. stock market, it is difficult to lose financial support, not to mention that the economic fundamentals are not bad.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a966f1e4c95f2e2355d57a28159ecb3\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Differentiation of capital, stock and bond flows in the global market in 2021. Source: Kaiyuan Securities)</p><p>Overall, the improving fundamentals, the still loose monetary environment, the passable valuation, and the preference of global funds are the underlying logic that U.S. stocks have always been easy to rise but difficult to fall.</p><p>Under the current trend, these underlying factors have not changed, so U.S. stocks may fall in the short term due to market sentiment, but if they want to fall sharply, it may not be big.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481954\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481954","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1132455826","content_text":"一个讨论已久的taper问题，让全球金融市场再一次闻风丧胆。\n美联储的会议纪要公布后，美股昨晚尾盘的加速下探，进而引发全球金融市场巨震，连带铁矿、能源、有色等大宗商品全线暴跌。今天早上日韩股市跟随大跌，午后港股午盘接力，然后下午欧洲股市也跟着遭殃，全金融市场，几乎无一幸免。\n\n在公布的美联储会议纪要中，美联储首次明确讨论Taper（缩减购债），还在专门设了一个“讨论购买资产”的内容章节。\n从民间讨论，到官方首次明确，并给出更加具体的时间，这个信号几成为一切恐慌的来源。\n似乎收水时间提前已是共识性结论，但问题是，美联储在这个问题上已经多次态度飘忽不定，这一次，它真能不顾一切摁下这个可能早就改摁的“核按钮”吗？\n01高烧不退的通胀\n美联储的这个纪要并没有做出任何细节的决定，只是说就着价格稳定目标、就业目标方面已经接近让人满意的水平。但一如既往的，成员间“还存在的分歧”，主要问题在于很多人还是认为“通胀的上涨是暂时的现象”。\n说实在的，美联储最近有些坚守凯恩斯主义的意思，将“充分就业”放在了首位，通胀数据如今好像成了附庸。\n美国宽松的货币政策、巨量的财政补贴、复苏的经济不断刺激着CPI的增长，该指标自今年3月就突破2%的门槛，6、7月的同比增速更是到达了历史高位5.4%，经济呈现复苏过热的苗头。\n\n美国民众对着日益高涨的物价，早也苦不堪言，虽然还有很多居民可以领取丰厚的失业救助金，但生活消费品如肉类、水果、蔬菜等价格都出现疯狂飙升，让救助金的购买力不断下降。\n而如今参议院已通过的1.2万亿基建和3.5万亿美元的预算开支计划也还将持续不断地刺激着美国甚至全球基建相关的原材料价格的增长，这给未来通胀的进一步上涨埋下了可能。\n供应紧缺方面其实在PPI上也有体现，7月PPI同比上涨7.8%，PPI和CPI之间差距不断扩大，企业利润情况受到压缩，后期可能会传导至消费端价格。\n由此看来，通胀的压力还是很大的，不一定能和预期一样平稳回落至正常水平，从这方面判断，CPI增速的不稳定性对于经济和股市都将不是利好的信息。\n按理说通胀数据过高，美联储就应该采用紧缩措施进行控制，但美联储迟迟未给出明确指示。而是不断安抚市场说“距离加息还很遥远”。\n这背后，除了德尔塔疫情再爆发的影响，也与目前就业数据的涨跌尚未能让人放心有关。\n\n但更主要的，重病下猛药实为不得已的高风险疗法，并不是一招致胜就后顾无忧。现在美国通过超大规模放水“吃猛药”扶持起立的经济复苏，虽然有了极大的成效，但埋下的后遗症却是极大，一个是依赖性极强，另一个是通胀高烧不退。\n正是如此，美联储在收水的考虑上，才一直飘忽不定，犹豫不决。因为它深知一旦药停，代价可能非常大。\n02经济真的过热了吗？\n其实美国经济的强度在一些表现上还没强到超出美联储的预期，不同的数据之间存在着矛盾。\n首先是美国制造业稳健恢复，7月份制造业PMI录得新高63.40，超出预期。\n但美联储最关注的就业方面的情况好像还没有触及其门槛。\n虽然自年初以来失业率下降明显，现回落至5.4%的水平，优于预期5.7%，但是和疫情前的3-4%还是有一定的距离。另外8月12日当周，首次申请失业金人数为37.5万人，距离疫情前平均水平20万人还是有差距。\n\n同时，职位空缺的数量不断增大，这说明就业的增量还不足以补足岗位的需求，劳动力市场的供需不平衡的情况日益严重。\n而拜登3月推动的1.9万亿美元纾困法案至9月才停止，符合资格的居民可以领取高额的救济金。部分居民想着能躺着挣钱，当然对找工作没了想法，这就从某种程度上抑制了本土就业市场的恢复，使得企业产品的供应上不来，市场供需依旧紧张。\n\n此外，消费数据还没有达到预期，美国商务部日前公布7月零售销售数据，环比下降1.1%，，前值为增长0.6%。\n由于个人消费支出占美国经济总量的约70%，该数据作为衡量整体经济健康状况的指标受到市场密切关注。而数据的增长乏力，说明了美国消费还没有恢复原本的和预期的增长力度。后期如果停止了补助，消费可能会丧失增长动力。\n\n自疫情以来，美国财政支出规模不断增加，2021财年美国财政支出高达7.7万亿美元，支出主要用于失业救济、营养援助和新冠救援项目。\n参议院还在近日通过了拜登的1.2万亿美元的一揽子基建计划和主要致力于反贫困和改善气候环境3.5万亿的预算计划。若是在后期顺利通过众议院审核，那高额的财政支出又将拔高。\n实际上拜登的整体施政方针并没有超出民主党一贯的理念，依旧是通过高额的财政支出拉动经济，而其所依靠的资金来源就是通过发债及加税。如果加税没有办法弥补上述的支出金额，那只能又靠发债。\n而若美联储将利率保持较低利率，会更有利于积极财政政策实施。\n\n根据华西证券的研究，美国从1984年至2015年曾经历过四次降息周期。这四个时期，美联储开始降息时都面临着较大的经济下行。除了1984-1986这个时期，后面三个时期在降息不久后，都出现了经济衰退，而到降息中后期，经济逐渐得到恢复，重获增长动力。\n\n那用历史的轨迹推至今日，美国加息应该在经济自身恢复稳定正常的增速时，加息的脚步才会到来，而从现在的表现来说（比如消费、就业方面的指标）可能还没到达考虑加息的时刻。\n但面对高额的通胀率，美联储向抗通胀模式转向可能是不可避免，接下来的就业数据将是关键，若是失业率回落至5%左右，taper将会快速到来。\n03这一次美股会大跌吗？\n关于美股会不会蹦的话题，大家已经被讨论过了无数次，也被打脸了无数次。\n美股到现在为止，除了去年的疫情突发冲击，到如今已经长达12年的大牛市行情。即使是在收水呼声不断提升，海外市场明显震荡的背景下，三大指数依然不断创出新高。\n但这一次相比以往，是更复杂的宏观环境，更高的通胀问题以及更大的债务规模，如果真是一个收水周期的开始，美股还能一如既往扛得住吗？\n金融是市场的波动最底层的影响因素是经济面和流动性层面。\n在经济面，虽然一些副作用挺多问题也挺大，但总体上美国的经济强势复苏是确定性方向，经济不断复苏肯定会逐渐反应在企业层面的业绩增长，这也是支撑企业股价的力量。\n美股的一季度整体业绩就开始大超预期，包括汽车、耐用品、零售、媒体、金融、医疗保健、信息科技、原材料等主要行业的EPS同比增速都非常高，除了去年疫情冲击导致的低基数外，经济快速复苏也有很大作用。\n二季度，很多行业公司表现出来的业绩增长也继续维持超预期的强劲。\n现在机构对美股2021年的盈利一致性预期增速高达38%（上半年50%+），2022年有望回归疫情之前的水平。虽然下半年开始由去年低基数带来的高增速会逐月回落，但市场预期预计三季度盈利增速依然有24%，整体依然可观，对应下来，美股当下的估值并不显得太贵了。\n截止目前，美股道指的市盈率26.4倍，纳指40.3倍，标普500的指数27.2倍，除了纳指，总体上相对其他主要市场并不算贵。\n并且占据大权重的各大超级巨头目前的市盈率也并不高，市值最大的前top20中，除了特斯拉外，其余的估值真的还很低，超出很多人的意料。\n\n在流动性方面，实际上，美元的作为全球货币锚，即使是小幅度收紧流动性，其实对美股来说从来不是大问题，因为全球资金会回补，这个事情在过去发生过无数次了。除非美联储要超大幅度收水，否则美股出现大幅度下跌的可能性会非常小。\n近一年来的宏观风险事件非常多，市场也不乏大幅度回调，但全球的资金依然偏好更大的股市，尤其美股市场，一直是重中之重。这种情况下，美股就算有泡沫，也很难会失去资金支持，何况经济基本面趋势并不算差。\n\n（2021年全球市场资金股债流向分化 来源：开源证券）\n总体看，向好的基本面，加依然宽松的货币环境，加过得去的估值，加全球资金的偏好，这就是美股一直易涨难跌的底层逻辑。\n当前趋势下，这些底层因素还没有发生转变，所以美股可能受市场情绪影响短期下跌，但想要大跌下去的话，可能不会大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174752907,"gmtCreate":1627144259409,"gmtModify":1703484779261,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"QE lo","listText":"QE lo","text":"QE lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174752907","repostId":"2153809933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153809933","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627105483,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153809933?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 13:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed's blockbuster July meeting is coming next week! What key points should we focus on?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153809933","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on July 27th and 28th. Although the stock market is still optimistic at present, it will meet in an uneasy atmosphere. In addition to the market's urgent need to know Powell's current attitude, what is more important is whether the Fed has the details of tapering policy.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear during his recent testimony before Congress that he still sees inflationary pressures as largely temporary and that there is no urgent need to signal an impending policy shift. After all, employment levels are still more than 6 million lower than before the pandemic began, and the latest COVID-19 pandemic adds another layer of uncertainty that can be used to justify inaction.</p><p>But ING strategists talked about the upcoming Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference in late August, where Fed officials will begin preparing for tapering quantitative easing and refine it further at the FOMC meeting in September, before formally announcing it in December.</p><p>The economy is growing, although perhaps not as fast as some expected earlier this year. In addition, many enterprises urgently need workers, but millions of people are still unemployed. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have stagnated and the number of infections has risen. Despite this, the Fed is facing tightening pressure, such as tapering QE. But most people still don't expect the Fed to announce any new measures at next week's meeting, but the focus is on whether Powell will put the details of tapering \"on the table\" for discussion.</p><p>Labor market signs suggest the Fed's easing is far from over. Economists and market watchers had hoped that by April, when vaccines were widely available and many economic restrictions began to be lifted, employers would start hiring workers in droves. However, the reality is far less optimistic. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll growth has generally been unstable in recent months.</p><p>On the other hand, the current inflationary environment forces the Federal Reserve to consider reducing some of the loose stimulus policies that have been implemented. Three-month moving average data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank showed that even though wages were 3.2% higher in June than a year earlier, inflation rose even higher. The consumer price index rose 5.4% in June compared to a year earlier, meaning inflation-adjusted earnings fell more than 2%. Even the core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which excludes volatility in food and energy prices, rose 3.4% in May from a year earlier.</p><p>In fact, a month ago, the Fed raised its inflation forecast for 2021 to 3% from 2.2% in March, but even that may be overly optimistic. Inflation is likely to keep rising for the rest of the year. However, the Fed may not be in a hurry to intervene. In a speech last August, Powell said the Fed has made so many mistakes in the past that he is willing to let prices exceed the central bank's 2% target for a modest period of time before tightening.</p><p>Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting, though, showed increased interest in discussing tapering bond purchases. The Fed is currently buying $120 billion worth of bonds every month, but a short-term rate hike may still be years away.</p><p>ING strategists believe that although the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy at its July meeting, the market may hear more news about tapering bond purchase discussions that started in June. The discussion around the issue is likely to heat up at the Jackson Hole conference in August, as the Fed's current signals still favor earlier policy normalization. It talked about Chairman Powell's likelihood of suggesting that while discussions about tapering quantitative easing have begun, there is still a lot of time before they need to draw conclusions on the actions they will take.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's blockbuster July meeting is coming next week! What key points should we focus on?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's blockbuster July meeting is coming next week! What key points should we focus on?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 13:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on July 27th and 28th. Although the stock market is still optimistic at present, it will meet in an uneasy atmosphere. In addition to the market's urgent need to know Powell's current attitude, what is more important is whether the Fed has the details of tapering policy.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear during his recent testimony before Congress that he still sees inflationary pressures as largely temporary and that there is no urgent need to signal an impending policy shift. After all, employment levels are still more than 6 million lower than before the pandemic began, and the latest COVID-19 pandemic adds another layer of uncertainty that can be used to justify inaction.</p><p>But ING strategists talked about the upcoming Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference in late August, where Fed officials will begin preparing for tapering quantitative easing and refine it further at the FOMC meeting in September, before formally announcing it in December.</p><p>The economy is growing, although perhaps not as fast as some expected earlier this year. In addition, many enterprises urgently need workers, but millions of people are still unemployed. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have stagnated and the number of infections has risen. Despite this, the Fed is facing tightening pressure, such as tapering QE. But most people still don't expect the Fed to announce any new measures at next week's meeting, but the focus is on whether Powell will put the details of tapering \"on the table\" for discussion.</p><p>Labor market signs suggest the Fed's easing is far from over. Economists and market watchers had hoped that by April, when vaccines were widely available and many economic restrictions began to be lifted, employers would start hiring workers in droves. However, the reality is far less optimistic. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll growth has generally been unstable in recent months.</p><p>On the other hand, the current inflationary environment forces the Federal Reserve to consider reducing some of the loose stimulus policies that have been implemented. Three-month moving average data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank showed that even though wages were 3.2% higher in June than a year earlier, inflation rose even higher. The consumer price index rose 5.4% in June compared to a year earlier, meaning inflation-adjusted earnings fell more than 2%. Even the core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which excludes volatility in food and energy prices, rose 3.4% in May from a year earlier.</p><p>In fact, a month ago, the Fed raised its inflation forecast for 2021 to 3% from 2.2% in March, but even that may be overly optimistic. Inflation is likely to keep rising for the rest of the year. However, the Fed may not be in a hurry to intervene. In a speech last August, Powell said the Fed has made so many mistakes in the past that he is willing to let prices exceed the central bank's 2% target for a modest period of time before tightening.</p><p>Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting, though, showed increased interest in discussing tapering bond purchases. The Fed is currently buying $120 billion worth of bonds every month, but a short-term rate hike may still be years away.</p><p>ING strategists believe that although the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy at its July meeting, the market may hear more news about tapering bond purchase discussions that started in June. The discussion around the issue is likely to heat up at the Jackson Hole conference in August, as the Fed's current signals still favor earlier policy normalization. It talked about Chairman Powell's likelihood of suggesting that while discussions about tapering quantitative easing have begun, there is still a lot of time before they need to draw conclusions on the actions they will take.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/520599.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a01b74d12bd250d548a4cdbf0d9091","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/520599.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2153809933","content_text":"美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。除了市场急需知道鲍威尔目前的态度，更重要的是美联储是否已经有了缩减政策细节。\n美联储主席鲍威尔最近在国会作证时明确表示，他仍然认为通胀压力在很大程度上是暂时的，没有任何迫切需要发出政策即将转变的信号。毕竟，就业水平仍比疫情开始前低600多万，而最新的新冠疫情增加了另一层不确定性，可以用来为不采取行动辩护。\n但是ING策略师谈到即将在8月底举行的杰克逊霍尔美联储会议(Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference)上，美联储官员将开始为缩减量化宽松做准备，并在9月份的FOMC会议上进一步细化，然后在12月份正式宣布。\n经济正在增长，尽管可能没有今年早些时候一些人预期的那么快。此外许多企业迫切需要工人，但仍有数百万人失业。最近几周，疫苗接种率停滞不前，感染病例数量上升。尽管如此美联储正面临着收紧压力，如缩减QE。但大部分人还是预计美联储不会在下周会议上宣布任何新举措，但焦点是鲍威尔是否会把缩减细节“摆上桌面”来讨论。\n劳动力市场迹象暗示美联储的宽松远没有结束。经济学家和市场观察人士曾希望，到4月份疫苗广泛普及、许多经济限制开始解除的时候，雇主将开始大批雇佣工人。然而，现实却远没有这么乐观。根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的最新数据显示非农增速在最近数月总体不是很稳定。\n另外一方面，当下通胀环境又让美联储不得不考虑缩减一些已经实施的宽松刺激政策。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的三个月移动平均数据显示，尽管6月份的工资比去年同期高出3.2%，但通货膨胀率却上升得更高。与去年同期相比，6月份消费者价格指数增长了5.4%，这意味着经通胀调整后的收入下降了2%以上。即便是美联储青睐的剔除食品和能源价格波动的核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)指标，5月份也较上年同期上涨了3.4%。\n事实上，一个月前，美联储将2021年的通胀预期从3月份的2.2%上调至3%，但即便如此也可能过于乐观。在今年余下的时间里，通胀可能会持续上升。不过，美联储也未必会不急于介入。在去年8月的一次讲话中，鲍威尔表示，美联储在过去犯了太多的错误，他愿意在收紧之前，让价格在一段适度的时间内超过央行2%的目标。\n不过，美联储最近一次会议的纪要显示，人们对讨论缩减债券购买规模的兴趣有所增加。美联储目前每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券，但短期加息可能仍需数年时间。\nING策略师认为尽管美联储预计在7月份的会议上不会改变政策，但市场可能会听到更多有关6月份开始的缩减购债讨论的消息。在8月份的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议上，围绕这一问题的讨论可能会升温，因为美联储目前发出的信号仍倾向于更早的政策正常化。其谈到鲍威尔主席可能会暗示，虽然有关缩减量化宽松的讨论已经开始，但在他们需要就他们将采取的行动得出结论之前，还有很多时间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144613177,"gmtCreate":1626278907699,"gmtModify":1703757101017,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144613177","repostId":"1135388122","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145133308,"gmtCreate":1626194593804,"gmtModify":1703755379047,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go to the moon","listText":"Go to the moon","text":"Go to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145133308","repostId":"2150889655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156722704,"gmtCreate":1625237758108,"gmtModify":1703739217264,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah… take a rest","listText":"Yeah… take a rest","text":"Yeah… take a rest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156722704","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 5 (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6 (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a legal national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4th every year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as grand as religious and folk festivals. Before the festival, ordinary people clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 5 (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6 (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a legal national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4th every year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as grand as religious and folk festivals. Before the festival, ordinary people clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159458414,"gmtCreate":1624977786238,"gmtModify":1703849372685,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574395209516109","idStr":"3574395209516109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Serious?runnnnnn","listText":"Serious?runnnnnn","text":"Serious?runnnnnn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159458414","repostId":"2147863837","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}