Hao Hong | Outlook 2023: A Cyclical Recovery
@HONGHAO：
Key Takeaways China finetuning “COVID-Zero”; flames of “Dual Circulation” turning blue. The Chinese authority is finetuning “COVID-0”, at a juncture when negative exports growth for the first time in 29 months and negative retail growth are suggesting receding demand both home and abroad. Yet onshore market rebounded strongly – from a similar level last seen at the onset of COVID in Mar 2020 China’s export cycle, an intermediate economic cycle running every seven years, has peaked in Feb 2021, and has translated to slowing accumulation of current account surplus compared with GDP. The export cycle correlates closely with China’s stock market cycle via the liquidity created via its export cycle. Thus, a peaking export cycle argues against a “secular bull market” suggested by conse