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- KencerKencer
  ·2021-02-21
  Electric cars are future. Nio is a a good buy for sure.
  2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth
  The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results
  2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth
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- KencerKencer
  ·2021-02-21
  Silver is the future!
  Dollar slips further after disappointing jobs data, sterling shines
  LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped further on Friday and the euro rebounded after di
  Dollar slips further after disappointing jobs data, sterling shines
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- KencerKencer
  ·2021-02-10
  Its all hype and the hype will eventually fade.
  How Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown
  Summary Tesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through finan
  How Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown
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- KencerKencer
  ·2021-02-09
  Nothing, its worth nothing
  Lost in the 'Gamestonks' mania - What is GameStop actually worth?
  Shares of video game retailer GameStop Corp have been on a wild ride. Analysts who cover the company
  Lost in the 'Gamestonks' mania - What is GameStop actually worth?
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- KencerKencer
  ·2021-02-09
  Hype
  Tesla Boots the Bitcoin Bandwagon Closer to Corporate America
  Other corporate treasurers will invest in Bitcoin: FundstratBitcoin surged to a record Tuesday after
  Tesla Boots the Bitcoin Bandwagon Closer to Corporate America
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Nio is a a good buy for sure.","listText":"Electric cars are future. Nio is a a good buy for sure.","text":"Electric cars are future. Nio is a a good buy for sure.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360126592","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143100356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613792715,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143100356?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-20 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143100356","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results ","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.</p><p>Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.</p><p>Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.</p><p>All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…</p><p><b>NIO Inc.NIO</b></p><p>Every major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.</p><p>NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.</p><p>Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.</p><p>With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.</p><p>NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6233d1784a5cb7db62b437f7632a3f\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.</p><p>At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.</p><p>NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.</p><p>Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.</p><p><b>CrowdStrikeCRWD</b></p><p>CrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.</p><p>Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.</p><p>CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f684cfbac7ba46e2cf8ab6e063461a2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.</p><p>The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.</p><p>CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”</p><p>Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.</p><p>In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.</p><p>CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.</p><p><b>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</b>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-20 11:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143100356","content_text":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…NIO Inc.NIOEvery major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.CrowdStrikeCRWDCrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360126049,"gmtCreate":1613873798181,"gmtModify":1704885580493,"author":{"id":"3575929632521499","authorId":"3575929632521499","name":"Kencer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575929632521499","authorIdStr":"3575929632521499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Silver is the future!","listText":"Silver is the future!","text":"Silver is the future!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360126049","repostId":"2112149478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2112149478","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1613724786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2112149478?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-19 16:53","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dollar slips further after disappointing jobs data, sterling shines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112149478","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped further on Friday and the euro rebounded after di","content":"<p>LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped further on Friday and the euro rebounded after disappointing U.S. data dented optimism for a speedy recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, while sterling edged towards the $1.40 mark.</p>\n<p>The U.S. currency had been rising as a jump in Treasury yields on the back of the so-called reflation trade encouraged investors back into the greenback.</p>\n<p>But an unexpected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims soured the economic outlook and sent the dollar lower overnight.</p>\n<p>On Friday it traded down 0.1% against a basket of currencies, the dollar index now at 90.474.</p>\n<p>The string of soft labour data is weighing on the dollar even as other indicators have shown resilience, and as President Joe Biden's pandemic relief efforts take shape, including a proposed $1.9 trillion spending package.</p>\n<p>The euro rose 0.2% to $1.2113 . The single currency showed little reaction to German and French flash purchasing manager index data, which unsurprisingly showed a slowdown in activity in January.</p>\n<p>Despite the recent rise in U.S. yields, many analysts think they won't climb too much higher, limiting the benefit for the dollar.</p>\n<p>ING analysts said that \"the rise in rates will be self-regulating, meaning the dollar need not correct too much higher.\"</p>\n<p>They see the greenback index trading down to the 90.10 to 91.05 range&nbsp;Sterling has been the standout performer in 2021 and on Friday rose to $1.3987, an almost three-year high amid Britain's aggressive vaccination programme.</p>\n<p>Given the size of Britain's vital services sector, analysts say the faster it can reopen the economy the better for the currency.</p>\n<p>The dollar bought 105.46 yen , down 0.2% and a continued retreat from the five-month high of 106.225 reached Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Many analysts expect the dollar to weaken over the course of the year as it has traditionally done during times of global economic recovery, though it might take some time to develop.</p>\n<p>\"It looks to me like there’s some exhaustion in that just-straight global reflation theme,\" leading the dollar to trend largely sideways for now, said Daniel Been, head of FX at ANZ in Sydney.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dollar slips further after disappointing jobs data, sterling shines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDollar slips further after disappointing jobs data, sterling shines\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-19 16:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped further on Friday and the euro rebounded after disappointing U.S. data dented optimism for a speedy recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, while sterling edged towards the $1.40 mark.</p>\n<p>The U.S. currency had been rising as a jump in Treasury yields on the back of the so-called reflation trade encouraged investors back into the greenback.</p>\n<p>But an unexpected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims soured the economic outlook and sent the dollar lower overnight.</p>\n<p>On Friday it traded down 0.1% against a basket of currencies, the dollar index now at 90.474.</p>\n<p>The string of soft labour data is weighing on the dollar even as other indicators have shown resilience, and as President Joe Biden's pandemic relief efforts take shape, including a proposed $1.9 trillion spending package.</p>\n<p>The euro rose 0.2% to $1.2113 . The single currency showed little reaction to German and French flash purchasing manager index data, which unsurprisingly showed a slowdown in activity in January.</p>\n<p>Despite the recent rise in U.S. yields, many analysts think they won't climb too much higher, limiting the benefit for the dollar.</p>\n<p>ING analysts said that \"the rise in rates will be self-regulating, meaning the dollar need not correct too much higher.\"</p>\n<p>They see the greenback index trading down to the 90.10 to 91.05 range&nbsp;Sterling has been the standout performer in 2021 and on Friday rose to $1.3987, an almost three-year high amid Britain's aggressive vaccination programme.</p>\n<p>Given the size of Britain's vital services sector, analysts say the faster it can reopen the economy the better for the currency.</p>\n<p>The dollar bought 105.46 yen , down 0.2% and a continued retreat from the five-month high of 106.225 reached Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Many analysts expect the dollar to weaken over the course of the year as it has traditionally done during times of global economic recovery, though it might take some time to develop.</p>\n<p>\"It looks to me like there’s some exhaustion in that just-straight global reflation theme,\" leading the dollar to trend largely sideways for now, said Daniel Been, head of FX at ANZ in Sydney.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","ANZ.AU":"ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LTD","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112149478","content_text":"LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped further on Friday and the euro rebounded after disappointing U.S. data dented optimism for a speedy recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, while sterling edged towards the $1.40 mark.\nThe U.S. currency had been rising as a jump in Treasury yields on the back of the so-called reflation trade encouraged investors back into the greenback.\nBut an unexpected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims soured the economic outlook and sent the dollar lower overnight.\nOn Friday it traded down 0.1% against a basket of currencies, the dollar index now at 90.474.\nThe string of soft labour data is weighing on the dollar even as other indicators have shown resilience, and as President Joe Biden's pandemic relief efforts take shape, including a proposed $1.9 trillion spending package.\nThe euro rose 0.2% to $1.2113 . The single currency showed little reaction to German and French flash purchasing manager index data, which unsurprisingly showed a slowdown in activity in January.\nDespite the recent rise in U.S. yields, many analysts think they won't climb too much higher, limiting the benefit for the dollar.\nING analysts said that \"the rise in rates will be self-regulating, meaning the dollar need not correct too much higher.\"\nThey see the greenback index trading down to the 90.10 to 91.05 range Sterling has been the standout performer in 2021 and on Friday rose to $1.3987, an almost three-year high amid Britain's aggressive vaccination programme.\nGiven the size of Britain's vital services sector, analysts say the faster it can reopen the economy the better for the currency.\nThe dollar bought 105.46 yen , down 0.2% and a continued retreat from the five-month high of 106.225 reached Wednesday.\nMany analysts expect the dollar to weaken over the course of the year as it has traditionally done during times of global economic recovery, though it might take some time to develop.\n\"It looks to me like there’s some exhaustion in that just-straight global reflation theme,\" leading the dollar to trend largely sideways for now, said Daniel Been, head of FX at ANZ in Sydney.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381228280,"gmtCreate":1612968607640,"gmtModify":1704876728504,"author":{"id":"3575929632521499","authorId":"3575929632521499","name":"Kencer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575929632521499","authorIdStr":"3575929632521499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Its all hype and the hype will eventually fade.","listText":"Its all hype and the hype will eventually fade.","text":"Its all hype and the hype will eventually fade.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381228280","repostId":"1113849351","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113849351","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612948278,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113849351?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-10 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113849351","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through finan","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.</li>\n <li>The bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a structurally unprofitable car company.</li>\n <li>Even assuming flawless execution from here, Tesla shares face over 90% downside.</li>\n <li>This extreme downside risk makes Tesla an excellent candidate for hedging against today's mania.</li>\n <li>I detail an options trade on Tesla designed to hedge against a broader bear market.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If you had any doubts before, thememe stock frenzyof the last few weeks should make one thing abundantly clear...</p>\n<p>Yes, it's a mania.</p>\n<p>In late December, I wrote about thespeculative excessesbubbling up in the financial markets. Things have only accelerated so far this year, with coordinated short squeezes sending the stocks of distressed businesses like GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) into the stratosphere,new record highs in margin debt,or my personal favorite - the relentless buying spree in speculative options among retail traders:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed1ad33fcdca94e8598947008f34056\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Of course, no one knows when this ends... but we all know how it ends. The recent U-turn in meme stocks thatwiped out $167 billion in a matter of daysis a preview for what awaits the broader financial markets. That's why it's never been more important to have a plan in place for hedging the downside. Some investors prefer cash or government bonds - both fine options. But for those willing to get a little more exotic, buying put options on overvalued stocks provides another alternative.</p>\n<p>First, we must identify a company with enough downside to make the bet worthwhile. And for my money, no better stock meets that criteria than electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA). From 2014 through mid-2019, Tesla shares traded in a range between $30 - $80 (split-adjusted). Then, starting in the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla shares entered ludicrous mode - rallying 1,700% from $50 to a recent price of around $850.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b909a9b8f4b39d30a319177076aeab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In today's article, I'll show that virtually nothing changed in Tesla's core business to justify this 17-fold increase in value since Q4 2019. I'll then make the case for why Tesla shares risk revisiting $50, even assuming an aggressive bull case in its future earnings trajectory.</p>\n<p>Given this 95% downside risk in Tesla's share price today, it makes for an excellent candidate to hedge a portfolio against the inevitable unwinding of today's mania. I'll detail a basic put option trade with more than 1,000% upside should this risk materialize going forward.</p>\n<p>Let's begin by first addressing the core thesis bulls use to justify Tesla's stratospheric valuation...</p>\n<p><b>Tesla, More than a Car Company?</b></p>\n<p>There's one simple reason why Tesla bulls need the stock narrative to reflect more just a car company: your average car company trades for less than 0.5x sales. Even Toyota, the world's most profitable mass market automaker, trades at just 0.7x sales. And then, there's Tesla...</p>\n<p>Based on a fully diluted 1.2 billion share count, Tesla currently commands a $1 trillion valuation at $850 per share. This valuation reflects a more than 30x sales multiple, or more expensive that many of the most dominant, and most profitable tech companies on the planet. The bulls argue that this valuation is justified, because Tesla is, in fact, a tech company. Why? Here's one explanation fromCleanTechnica:</p>\n<blockquote>\n What Makes Tesla a Tech Company?Tesla is creating software, a lot of software. Software is at the essence of Tesla’s unique infotainment system, user experience, and autonomous-driving features. Tesla has implemented over-the-air updates for years, while other automakers are just about to try this.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Of course, no one will deny that Tesla vehicles contain a lot of cool software and other technology (just like every other modern-day automobile). There's just one problem: each piece of software Tesla sells has a car attached to it. Examining Tesla's financials reveals no standalone software segment. In fact, 94% of Tesla’s revenue last year came from automotive sales, leasing and service. That, dear readers, makes it a car company:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d1d7eb8b41fba5e2fbeb67c89ec10f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>I'll save the analysis of Tesla's energy business for future articles, except to note that this battery/solar segment suffers even lower margins than Tesla's unprofitable car business. Back to the original point...</p>\n<p>The narrative of Tesla as a \"tech company\" is exactly that - an empty narrative, divorced from financial reality. Tesla is only a tech company in the same way that Toyota or Volkswagen are - they all produce vehicles that contain software and other advanced \"technology\". But this alone doesn’t magically transform the economics of manufacturing automobiles.</p>\n<p>And the truth is, the car business suffers from pretty dismal economics, especially compared with the software business. Perhaps more than any other single factor, it's this basic financial reality that explains why Tesla shares face 95% downside risk, even assuming perfect execution going forward. So let's explore this point in greater detail, by comparing the economics of making cars versus making software...</p>\n<p><b>Software vs Autos: A Tale of Two Industries</b></p>\n<p>The reason why dominant software companies trade at rich valuation multiples of 10-20x sales has nothing to do with so-called \"disruption\" or even innovation. Instead, it's all about the basic business fundamentals of margins, capital requirements and competitive dynamics. Let's consider the case of Microsoft, focusing on the simplified example of its Office software product (ignoring the growing cloud business and other segments for simplicity).</p>\n<p>For starters, a software product like Microsoft Office enjoys tremendous margins. After the upfront investment of developing the software code, the incremental costs of selling each additional unit are miniscule - especially in today's world of downloadable software. Compare this with producing an automobile, which comes with massive variable costs - including both input materials and labor. This critical difference in unit economics explains why software companies like Microsoft earn 30 - 40% net margins versus carmakers like Tesla that suffer from razor thin, single-digit profitability:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c083675b47070a5e8bd130702a838e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Next, let's talk competition. Given the fat margins in a product like Microsoft Office, why has no competitor emerged to steal away any meaningful market share in the last 25 years? After all, we're not exactly talking rocket science to replicate the basic Office software code. The answer is all about network effects and switching costs. The world already runs on Office products, like Excel. So if you want to share your spreadsheets with the outside world, for example, you have no choice but to use Excel. Meanwhile, who wants the hassle of learning a new spreadsheet interface, and for what upside? To save maybe $20 per year?</p>\n<p>In short, Microsoft's profitability has nothing to do with narratives like innovation or disruption. It's all about excellent unit economics combined with a virtually impenetrable moat insulating the business against competitors. This moat means Microsoft doesn't need to constantly invest money reinventing the wheel - it merely needs to maintain the status quo functionality of the Office product. So instead of diverting a big chunk of profits back into new product development, those profits instead flow back to shareholders.</p>\n<p>The mass market car business operates on the exact opposite dynamics, where consumers constantly shop around for the latest vehicle features and designs, delivered at the lowest cost. There are no meaningful competitive moats that prevent consumers from switching brands, or from competitors replicating the latest vehicle designs and technology. That's why, instead of the monopoly-like powers enjoyed by the big tech companies, the car business trends towards commoditization over time. We see evidence of this in the brutally low margins, and in the fact that no single car company owns more than 15% of global market share.</p>\n<p>Many of the bulls mistakenly view Tesla's \"first mover\" status in the EV market as some kind of fundamental competitive advantage, but that ignores the basic competitive dynamics of the car business. First mover advantage doesn't really exist in the commoditized world of auto manufacturing, and Tesla is already providing a perfect case study for those who car to look. In the world's largest EV market - Europe - Tesla's market share has collapsed from undisputed leader as recently as 2019 to third place today, thanks to a flood of new EV competition from legacy auto makers:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c2ce6fbcf99c716e30ea76507893618\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As the world's largest and most competitive EV market, Europe is a bellwether for the future competitive pressures Tesla will face in the U.S. and China. The success of the recently launchedFord Mustang Mach-Eshows that legacy automakers can and will produce compelling EVs on par with, or perhaps even better than Tesla's current offerings. The growing competition is showing up in another key metric:Tesla's relentless price cutsacross all vehicle models, including a$3,000 cut in the Model Y priceonly a few months after initial production.</p>\n<p>Clearly, Tesla does not enjoy any meaningful competitive moat, or else it wouldn't be surrendering market share and slashing prices across the board. That means Tesla will need to constantly invest huge sums of money just to keep its head above water earning razor thin margins, as it fights for market share in what is already becoming a highly commoditized EV industry.</p>\n<p>So to summarize...</p>\n<p><b>Tesla: It's a Car Company</b></p>\n<p>Despite the bullish narrative about the tremendous \"technology\" Tesla produces, the objective reality in the financial statements shows that Tesla is a car company which happens to produce software. It doesn't enjoy any of the economic benefits that a pure play software producer, like Microsoft enjoys - things like excellent unit economics and a monopoly-like competitive position.</p>\n<p>The reason companies like Microsoft command valuation premiums of 10x sales or more, is simply because of the high returns on invested capital the business generates. Conversely, even the most profitable car company on the planet - Toyota - trades at less than 1x sales. That's simply a reflection of the brutal economics of high operating costs and intense competitive pressures, which translate into fundamentally low returns on capital. Tesla is not immune from this basic economic reality. If you strip away the hype and just examine the numbers, Tesla looks exactly like your average car company:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05782c8583b26edd51aeb769b32ced1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>But here's the thing - Tesla actually suffers far worse unit economics than your average car company. The chart above reflects the financials of a one-time outlier year of profitability. Before 2020, Tesla lost money in every year of its existence:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07426fdf2d4f750a787924e8bc48775f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's 2020 financial results led many bulls to believe the company had finally turned the corner towards sustained profitability. But here again, the objective reality in the financials tell a different story.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla Still Loses Money Making Cars</b></p>\n<p>The truth is, Tesla lost money making cars in 2020 - just like every other year in its existence. Tesla only managed to manufacture a one-time profit thanks to a bonanza in government-mandated wealth transfers from the very legacy automakers Tesla seeks to \"disrupt\". Let me explain...</p>\n<p>Governments around the globe have established regulations designed to move the auto industry away from the internal combustion engine (ICE) towards zero emission vehicles. These regulations establish a maximum emissions threshold associated with ICE vehicle sales. So companies that sell too many ICE vehicles incur fines if they exceed the emission threshold. Conversely, companies that produce zero emission vehicles - like Tesla - earn regulatory credits, which they can then sell to other manufacturers to offset the emission tallies from ICE vehicle sales.</p>\n<p>The key point here is that Tesla incurs virtually zero costs when selling these regulatory credits. This 100% pure profit margin revenue provides a major boost to Tesla's otherwise dismal financials. Last year, Tesla earned a whopping $1.6 billion in regulatory credits, up more than 150% from the $600 million earned in 2019. Now here's the thing - Tesla only grew its vehicle sales by less than 40% last year. So how do we explain the pace of emission credits massively outpacing its vehicle sales growth?</p>\n<p>One potential answer lies in Tesla's mushrooming accounts receivables balance, which grew by about half a billion dollars last year. In Tesla's10Q filing from Q3 2020, the company describes a large transaction involving regulatory credit sales that contributed to its account receivables balance:</p>\n<blockquote>\n As of September 30, 2020, one entity represented 10% or more of our total accounts receivable balance, which was related to sales of regulatory credits. As of December 31, 2019, no entity represented 10% of our total accounts receivable balance.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Unfortunately, Tesla provides few additional details explaining what's going on with the accounts receivable balance - a subjectDavid Einhorn has publicly questioned Elon Musk about. But if I were to speculate, it looks like Tesla pulled forward a substantial sum of regulatory credit sales associated with future vehicle sales into the 2020 fiscal year, allowing it to print a one-time profit of $721 million. But if we take away these credit sales (including backing out the estimated taxes paid), Tesla's \"profit\" in 2020 transforms into a $568 million loss:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac66da8f996eb6f7089a2c90e7dda12c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\"><span>(Source: Author, using Tesla filings)</span></p>\n<p>In other words, Tesla's core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable. 2020 was not a turning point, but merely an outlier driven by a $1.6 billion bonanza in regulatory emission credits. And the language in its SEC filings indicate that at least some portion of these regulatory credit sales were pulled forward from future years and booked into the accounts receivable balance.</p>\n<p>In any event, the bottom line is clear: instead of disrupting the legacy automakers, in my view Tesla essentially relies on wealth transfers from its profitable competitors to offset the endless red ink flowing from its own manufacturing operations. Of course, the bulls might argue that it doesn't where the money comes from - profit is profit, right? But here's the problem - Tesla's corporate welfare gravy train will soon hit a brick wall, with nearly every major automaker introducingdozens of new EV modelsthis year and next. And that's just the start. By 2025, hundreds of billions of dollars will have been deployed into new EV models by legacy automakers:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05cf0587c2addcd549edab52ba39f82f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The coming tsunami of new EVs offerings means regulatory emission credit supply will soar and demand will plunge, and thus killing their value. Within a few short years, Tesla will no longer be able to paper over the losses from its core business with regulatory credit sales. That's not just my opinion - Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn confirmed the temporary nature of Tesla's credit sales during the company'sQ2 2020 earnings call:</p>\n<blockquote>\n ...we don't manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute in a significant way to the future... eventually, the stream of regulatory credits will reduce.\n</blockquote>\n<p>That means no, not all profit is created equal. An ongoing profit stream from a viable business deserves a valuation multiple. Conversely, a temporary profit stream should be looked through when assessing the long-term value of a business. Since Tesla investors can not count on regulatory credits continuing beyond the next few years, it only makes sense to strip out their impact from the income statement. When you do that, you see that virtually nothing to justify Tesla's manic share price rally in 2020 - the core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35bc24f3b93c083529b291bfa499d17c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, it's not just the rearview financials in the core business that remain unchanged.Jim Chanos recently notedhow the forward analyst estimates for Tesla's 2022 - 2023 earnings are the same as in mid-2019, back when shares traded for $50:</p>\n<blockquote>\n That kind of tells you a little bit about what's happened in the marketplace in that valuations have just gone parabolic for basically a company that's still, in the eyes of analysts, earning at or below where they thought it would be earning two years ago. That's kind of incredible.\n</blockquote>\n<p>So if neither the trailing business fundamentals nor the forward earnings outlook changed, that leaves only one variable left to explain what sent Tesla shares from $50 to $850: investor psychology. More specifically, manic psychology, fueling a mad scramble for unprofitable companies across the board:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ddc266e80382c1f5544c7bf8e51828\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"954\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Thus, Tesla's parabolic price appreciation is merely one of the countless cases of speculative excess playing out across the financial markets. Make no mistake, the coming unwind of this excess is a question of when, not if. When that day comes, the fallout will likely spread throughout financial markets, taking down the innocent bystanders as collateral damage. That's why I'm betting against Tesla as a hedge against this coming unwind. And the reason Tesla makes such a compelling candidate for a price re-rating is, well... how many other trillion dollar companies do you know of that don't make money in their core business?</p>\n<p>Take away the regulatory profit stream - which will start happening this year - and there's no reason why Tesla should trade for anything above the net cash on the balance sheet - which currently sits at around $7 billion, or about $6 per share on a fully diluted basis. Meanwhile, what's the upside case in the scenario where Tesla transforms itself into a profitable car company? Let's briefly consider that scenario...</p>\n<p>Tesla Shares Face 90% Downside, Even with Perfect Execution</p>\n<p>Let's suspend disbelief for a moment and give Tesla full credit for flawless execution on both top line growth and bottom line profitability going forward. For the top line growth assumption, let's simply use the forecast fromTesla's most recent earnings release, where the company guided for 50% annual growth rate in vehicle deliveries going forward. Before moving on, I'll simply note that this projection seems wildly optimistic given Tesla's depleted product pipeline. Both the Tesla Semi and Roadster have missed their original production deadlines by over a year, with no clear timeline yet on when production will begin. Meanwhile, the CyberTruck - Tesla's only mass market vehicle in the pipeline -also appears delayeduntil sometime between 2022 - 2023.</p>\n<p>But even if we give Tesla full credit for this growth, one thing is clear - it will require massive capital investment. That means significant future equity issuance. Meanwhile, Tesla pays a significant portion of its employee salary expense via stock compensation, including Elon Musk's record shattering$56 billion stock bonus plan(saving the planet ain't cheap, apparently). The bottom line: equity dilution is a real issue for Tesla shareholders. Over the last five years, Tesla shareholders have suffered more than 50% dilution. Given the healthy cash pile currently on the balance sheet, let's conservatively assume the dilution rate slows to 5% annually going forward, starting from today's 1.2 billion fully diluted share count.</p>\n<p>Next, let's talk earnings. Remember, this is our aggressive bull case... so let's hold nothing back. We'll assume that Tesla transforms from a structurally unprofitable automaker into one of the most profitable car companies on the planet - matching the 6% net margins earned by Toyota, the mass market industry leader in profitability.</p>\n<p>Finally, let's give Tesla a best-in-class 25x earnings multiple. That's a more than 300% valuation premium over the industry average of roughly 8x earnings, and more than twice the earnings multiple on Toyota. Putting it all together, the table below shows the key assumptions and annual price targets out to 2025:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381ad84108e848b2bfe8fc2001b57800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In other words...</p>\n<p><i><b>Tesla shares face more than 90% downside risk through 2022, even in the aggressive bull case scenario.</b></i></p>\n<p>In future articles, I'll dive deeper into the weeds to show why there's very little chance of Tesla achieving anything close to the targets outlined above. For now, the key takeaway is that even these fantasy fundamentals barely justify a $50 price target.</p>\n<p>Before wrapping up this analysis and moving on to the trade idea, let me address the final key talking point bulls use to justify Tesla's trillion dollar valuation...</p>\n<p>What About the Robotaxis?</p>\n<p>Starting in late 2016,Elon Musk has promisedthe imminent release of Level 5 full self driving capability in all Tesla vehicles. The promise all along has been that, every Tesla rolling off the assembly line contained the necessary hardware for full self driving, and it was only a matter of developing the software to achieve Level 5 autonomy.</p>\n<p>As a brief bit of background, Level 5 is the highest of6 SAE-defined levels of vehicle autonomy(ranging from 0 to 5). A level 5 vehicle can fully navigate through all environments with zero human supervision. Over the last several years, Musk has made a series of autonomy promises to both consumers and investors which have so far failed to materialize. This includes a2019 capital raise, during which Musk promised a future \"robotaxi\" network that would include a million autonomous Tesla's on the road by 2020. Musk has even claimed that Tesla owners could lend their vehicles out to this future robotaxi network andearn as much as $30,000 per year.</p>\n<p>Those were the promises, but here's the reality... more than four years after making the original promise, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 autonomy. As described in the graphic below, Level 2 autonomy is nothing more than a basic driver assistance feature, which many other automakers currently offer:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a572a2cdf3f9b0161fb7fef5abce9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source (notations by author)</span></p>\n<p>Despite the endless string of autonomy promises that have gone unfulfilled for more than four years, Musk remains undeterred in continuing to make aggressive projections to investors. On the company's latest earnings, Musk talked up a forecast of $50 billion in future earnings from the non-existent robotaxi network,as CNBC reports:</p>\n<blockquote>\n On the company’s earnings call on Wednesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the valuation makes sense if you assume that billions of dollars worth of cars become robotaxis.He said $50 billion in car sales could produce another $50 billion in “incremental profit” with software margins.\n</blockquote>\n<p>In other words - ignore the broken autonomy promises over the last four years, and just assume this non-existent robotaxi network will become one of the world's most profitable businesses in the future. I'll save the full autonomy analysis for the future, except to say - if you buy into this projection, then sure, a trillion dollar valuation for Tesla stock can make sense. I'll happily take the other side of that bet.</p>\n<p>And without a miracle windfall from robotaxis, there's nothing to stop Mr. Market from repricing Tesla as the unprofitable automaker that it is when today's mania unravels. Which brings us to the final point of this article - the Tesla options trade I'm using to hedge against the unraveling of speculative excess in today's market.</p>\n<p><b>A Tesla Hedging Trade with Over 10x Upside</b></p>\n<p>The full discussion of put option mechanics goes beyond the scope of today's article, but for a high level overview, think of put options as the stock market's version of an insurance policy. Just like your monthly car insurance premiums, most put options expire worthless... but during a crash, they can pay off in a big way.</p>\n<p>Put options achieve this pay off structure by providing short exposure to 100 shares of an underlying stock at the option strike price, up until the expiration date. You pay a premium for the privilege of gaining this short exposure, in the form of the upfront price of the option contract. The reason most options expire worthless is because the stock price must move far enough below the strike price to offset the cost of the option, within a limited time frame (i.e. before the expiration date).</p>\n<p>And that brings us to the two key elements of selecting a put option: a target price and a time frame. I just explained the fundamental case for a downside target of $50 in Tesla shares. And from a technical perspective, Tesla based at around $50 in the fourth quarter of 2019 before launching into a parabolic melt-up. The history of parabolic advances says that, when they end, the stock price often revisits the launch pad - which would bring Tesla back to around $50. Meanwhile, in order to give this trade plenty of time, I'm looking out to January 2022 as a rough time frame.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ca705542b208fa6c8afca0795f80259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So this time frame gives a straight forward decision on the option expiration date of January 21, 2022. Meanwhile, in order to give the position plenty of room to be wrong and still pay off, I'll select a strike price of $300. There's a delicate balance when selecting strike prices - a lower strike would provide a higher return, but also come with a lower probability of pay off. As I'll show below, selecting a $300 strike price still provides the chance of earning a decent return even if my $50 downside target proves too aggressive.</p>\n<p>But before considering the return potential, we have to know the price of the option. At the close of trading on Monday, the $300 strike Tesla put option expiring on January 21, 2022 traded for around $15.75, as shown below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18b6b326a4fadbe5a0dae10c0355ac6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"38\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Given the 100-share multiplier, the $15.75 quoted price translates into a total cost of $1,575 (plus fees/commissions). With this information, we can determine the return potential of the option for a range of scenarios. In the case where Tesla closes at or above $300 by the expiration date, the option expires worthless, resulting in a 100% loss. Alternatively, if Tesla closes below $300, then the option gains $100 in value for every $1 below the $300 strike price. The table below summarizes this range of scenarios:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33d0ec6d30e3088aad23b0bf644728ab\" tg-width=\"453\" tg-height=\"244\"><span>(Note: for simplicity, I assume the option is held until just before the expiration date, and then closed out without exercising the contract).</span></p>\n<p>So in the downside scenario outlined earlier, where Tesla trades down to $50 by the January 2022 expiration date, the option value grows from $1,650 to $25,000 - for a gain of about 1,400%. However, even if this downside target proves too aggressive, there's still scope to make a reasonable return. If shares only fall to, say $200, the option still returns roughly 500%.</p>\n<p>As you can see, it only take a small allocation within an overall portfolio to gain substantial hedging exposure with a trade like this. Of course, recency bias might make $50 or even $200 per share seem outlandish for a stock trading near $850 today. But let's not forget that Tesla was within“single digit weeks” of bankruptcyas recently as 2018. And in May of 2019, topTesla analyst Adam Jonasdescribed the company as “a distressed credit and restructuring story”, with a $10 downside price target (or $2 pre-split).</p>\n<p>The core business remains virtually unchanged from 2018 and 2019 - when terms like \"bankruptcy\" and \"restructuring\" were on the table. The only key difference is that Tesla now enjoys a positive net cash balance, which takes an immediate bankruptcy scenario off the table. But with less than $10 per share in net cash, this should provide little consolation for the bulls as a valuation floor.</p>\n<p>All that really needs to happen is for Tesla to continue on its current path of losing money in its core business, and catastrophic downside is in store for the stock. And that's not just my opinion - Elon Musk himself fully recognizes this risk, as he noted in a recentemail to employees:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer!\n</blockquote>\n<p>Going forward, my money's on the sledgehammer, not the soufflé.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Tesla Options Can Hedge Against A Market Meltdown\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.\nThe bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404670-how-tesla-options-can-hedge-against-market-meltdown","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1113849351","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla's trillion dollar valuation reflects the irrational exuberance sweeping through financial markets.\nThe bulls argue Tesla is a \"tech company\", but objective reality says Tesla is a structurally unprofitable car company.\nEven assuming flawless execution from here, Tesla shares face over 90% downside.\nThis extreme downside risk makes Tesla an excellent candidate for hedging against today's mania.\nI detail an options trade on Tesla designed to hedge against a broader bear market.\n\nIf you had any doubts before, thememe stock frenzyof the last few weeks should make one thing abundantly clear...\nYes, it's a mania.\nIn late December, I wrote about thespeculative excessesbubbling up in the financial markets. Things have only accelerated so far this year, with coordinated short squeezes sending the stocks of distressed businesses like GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) into the stratosphere,new record highs in margin debt,or my personal favorite - the relentless buying spree in speculative options among retail traders:\n\nOf course, no one knows when this ends... but we all know how it ends. The recent U-turn in meme stocks thatwiped out $167 billion in a matter of daysis a preview for what awaits the broader financial markets. That's why it's never been more important to have a plan in place for hedging the downside. Some investors prefer cash or government bonds - both fine options. But for those willing to get a little more exotic, buying put options on overvalued stocks provides another alternative.\nFirst, we must identify a company with enough downside to make the bet worthwhile. And for my money, no better stock meets that criteria than electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA). From 2014 through mid-2019, Tesla shares traded in a range between $30 - $80 (split-adjusted). Then, starting in the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla shares entered ludicrous mode - rallying 1,700% from $50 to a recent price of around $850.\n\nIn today's article, I'll show that virtually nothing changed in Tesla's core business to justify this 17-fold increase in value since Q4 2019. I'll then make the case for why Tesla shares risk revisiting $50, even assuming an aggressive bull case in its future earnings trajectory.\nGiven this 95% downside risk in Tesla's share price today, it makes for an excellent candidate to hedge a portfolio against the inevitable unwinding of today's mania. I'll detail a basic put option trade with more than 1,000% upside should this risk materialize going forward.\nLet's begin by first addressing the core thesis bulls use to justify Tesla's stratospheric valuation...\nTesla, More than a Car Company?\nThere's one simple reason why Tesla bulls need the stock narrative to reflect more just a car company: your average car company trades for less than 0.5x sales. Even Toyota, the world's most profitable mass market automaker, trades at just 0.7x sales. And then, there's Tesla...\nBased on a fully diluted 1.2 billion share count, Tesla currently commands a $1 trillion valuation at $850 per share. This valuation reflects a more than 30x sales multiple, or more expensive that many of the most dominant, and most profitable tech companies on the planet. The bulls argue that this valuation is justified, because Tesla is, in fact, a tech company. Why? Here's one explanation fromCleanTechnica:\n\n What Makes Tesla a Tech Company?Tesla is creating software, a lot of software. Software is at the essence of Tesla’s unique infotainment system, user experience, and autonomous-driving features. Tesla has implemented over-the-air updates for years, while other automakers are just about to try this.\n\nOf course, no one will deny that Tesla vehicles contain a lot of cool software and other technology (just like every other modern-day automobile). There's just one problem: each piece of software Tesla sells has a car attached to it. Examining Tesla's financials reveals no standalone software segment. In fact, 94% of Tesla’s revenue last year came from automotive sales, leasing and service. That, dear readers, makes it a car company:\n\nI'll save the analysis of Tesla's energy business for future articles, except to note that this battery/solar segment suffers even lower margins than Tesla's unprofitable car business. Back to the original point...\nThe narrative of Tesla as a \"tech company\" is exactly that - an empty narrative, divorced from financial reality. Tesla is only a tech company in the same way that Toyota or Volkswagen are - they all produce vehicles that contain software and other advanced \"technology\". But this alone doesn’t magically transform the economics of manufacturing automobiles.\nAnd the truth is, the car business suffers from pretty dismal economics, especially compared with the software business. Perhaps more than any other single factor, it's this basic financial reality that explains why Tesla shares face 95% downside risk, even assuming perfect execution going forward. So let's explore this point in greater detail, by comparing the economics of making cars versus making software...\nSoftware vs Autos: A Tale of Two Industries\nThe reason why dominant software companies trade at rich valuation multiples of 10-20x sales has nothing to do with so-called \"disruption\" or even innovation. Instead, it's all about the basic business fundamentals of margins, capital requirements and competitive dynamics. Let's consider the case of Microsoft, focusing on the simplified example of its Office software product (ignoring the growing cloud business and other segments for simplicity).\nFor starters, a software product like Microsoft Office enjoys tremendous margins. After the upfront investment of developing the software code, the incremental costs of selling each additional unit are miniscule - especially in today's world of downloadable software. Compare this with producing an automobile, which comes with massive variable costs - including both input materials and labor. This critical difference in unit economics explains why software companies like Microsoft earn 30 - 40% net margins versus carmakers like Tesla that suffer from razor thin, single-digit profitability:\n\nNext, let's talk competition. Given the fat margins in a product like Microsoft Office, why has no competitor emerged to steal away any meaningful market share in the last 25 years? After all, we're not exactly talking rocket science to replicate the basic Office software code. The answer is all about network effects and switching costs. The world already runs on Office products, like Excel. So if you want to share your spreadsheets with the outside world, for example, you have no choice but to use Excel. Meanwhile, who wants the hassle of learning a new spreadsheet interface, and for what upside? To save maybe $20 per year?\nIn short, Microsoft's profitability has nothing to do with narratives like innovation or disruption. It's all about excellent unit economics combined with a virtually impenetrable moat insulating the business against competitors. This moat means Microsoft doesn't need to constantly invest money reinventing the wheel - it merely needs to maintain the status quo functionality of the Office product. So instead of diverting a big chunk of profits back into new product development, those profits instead flow back to shareholders.\nThe mass market car business operates on the exact opposite dynamics, where consumers constantly shop around for the latest vehicle features and designs, delivered at the lowest cost. There are no meaningful competitive moats that prevent consumers from switching brands, or from competitors replicating the latest vehicle designs and technology. That's why, instead of the monopoly-like powers enjoyed by the big tech companies, the car business trends towards commoditization over time. We see evidence of this in the brutally low margins, and in the fact that no single car company owns more than 15% of global market share.\nMany of the bulls mistakenly view Tesla's \"first mover\" status in the EV market as some kind of fundamental competitive advantage, but that ignores the basic competitive dynamics of the car business. First mover advantage doesn't really exist in the commoditized world of auto manufacturing, and Tesla is already providing a perfect case study for those who car to look. In the world's largest EV market - Europe - Tesla's market share has collapsed from undisputed leader as recently as 2019 to third place today, thanks to a flood of new EV competition from legacy auto makers:\n\nAs the world's largest and most competitive EV market, Europe is a bellwether for the future competitive pressures Tesla will face in the U.S. and China. The success of the recently launchedFord Mustang Mach-Eshows that legacy automakers can and will produce compelling EVs on par with, or perhaps even better than Tesla's current offerings. The growing competition is showing up in another key metric:Tesla's relentless price cutsacross all vehicle models, including a$3,000 cut in the Model Y priceonly a few months after initial production.\nClearly, Tesla does not enjoy any meaningful competitive moat, or else it wouldn't be surrendering market share and slashing prices across the board. That means Tesla will need to constantly invest huge sums of money just to keep its head above water earning razor thin margins, as it fights for market share in what is already becoming a highly commoditized EV industry.\nSo to summarize...\nTesla: It's a Car Company\nDespite the bullish narrative about the tremendous \"technology\" Tesla produces, the objective reality in the financial statements shows that Tesla is a car company which happens to produce software. It doesn't enjoy any of the economic benefits that a pure play software producer, like Microsoft enjoys - things like excellent unit economics and a monopoly-like competitive position.\nThe reason companies like Microsoft command valuation premiums of 10x sales or more, is simply because of the high returns on invested capital the business generates. Conversely, even the most profitable car company on the planet - Toyota - trades at less than 1x sales. That's simply a reflection of the brutal economics of high operating costs and intense competitive pressures, which translate into fundamentally low returns on capital. Tesla is not immune from this basic economic reality. If you strip away the hype and just examine the numbers, Tesla looks exactly like your average car company:\n\nBut here's the thing - Tesla actually suffers far worse unit economics than your average car company. The chart above reflects the financials of a one-time outlier year of profitability. Before 2020, Tesla lost money in every year of its existence:\nTesla's 2020 financial results led many bulls to believe the company had finally turned the corner towards sustained profitability. But here again, the objective reality in the financials tell a different story.\nTesla Still Loses Money Making Cars\nThe truth is, Tesla lost money making cars in 2020 - just like every other year in its existence. Tesla only managed to manufacture a one-time profit thanks to a bonanza in government-mandated wealth transfers from the very legacy automakers Tesla seeks to \"disrupt\". Let me explain...\nGovernments around the globe have established regulations designed to move the auto industry away from the internal combustion engine (ICE) towards zero emission vehicles. These regulations establish a maximum emissions threshold associated with ICE vehicle sales. So companies that sell too many ICE vehicles incur fines if they exceed the emission threshold. Conversely, companies that produce zero emission vehicles - like Tesla - earn regulatory credits, which they can then sell to other manufacturers to offset the emission tallies from ICE vehicle sales.\nThe key point here is that Tesla incurs virtually zero costs when selling these regulatory credits. This 100% pure profit margin revenue provides a major boost to Tesla's otherwise dismal financials. Last year, Tesla earned a whopping $1.6 billion in regulatory credits, up more than 150% from the $600 million earned in 2019. Now here's the thing - Tesla only grew its vehicle sales by less than 40% last year. So how do we explain the pace of emission credits massively outpacing its vehicle sales growth?\nOne potential answer lies in Tesla's mushrooming accounts receivables balance, which grew by about half a billion dollars last year. In Tesla's10Q filing from Q3 2020, the company describes a large transaction involving regulatory credit sales that contributed to its account receivables balance:\n\n As of September 30, 2020, one entity represented 10% or more of our total accounts receivable balance, which was related to sales of regulatory credits. As of December 31, 2019, no entity represented 10% of our total accounts receivable balance.\n\nUnfortunately, Tesla provides few additional details explaining what's going on with the accounts receivable balance - a subjectDavid Einhorn has publicly questioned Elon Musk about. But if I were to speculate, it looks like Tesla pulled forward a substantial sum of regulatory credit sales associated with future vehicle sales into the 2020 fiscal year, allowing it to print a one-time profit of $721 million. But if we take away these credit sales (including backing out the estimated taxes paid), Tesla's \"profit\" in 2020 transforms into a $568 million loss:\n(Source: Author, using Tesla filings)\nIn other words, Tesla's core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable. 2020 was not a turning point, but merely an outlier driven by a $1.6 billion bonanza in regulatory emission credits. And the language in its SEC filings indicate that at least some portion of these regulatory credit sales were pulled forward from future years and booked into the accounts receivable balance.\nIn any event, the bottom line is clear: instead of disrupting the legacy automakers, in my view Tesla essentially relies on wealth transfers from its profitable competitors to offset the endless red ink flowing from its own manufacturing operations. Of course, the bulls might argue that it doesn't where the money comes from - profit is profit, right? But here's the problem - Tesla's corporate welfare gravy train will soon hit a brick wall, with nearly every major automaker introducingdozens of new EV modelsthis year and next. And that's just the start. By 2025, hundreds of billions of dollars will have been deployed into new EV models by legacy automakers:\n\nThe coming tsunami of new EVs offerings means regulatory emission credit supply will soar and demand will plunge, and thus killing their value. Within a few short years, Tesla will no longer be able to paper over the losses from its core business with regulatory credit sales. That's not just my opinion - Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn confirmed the temporary nature of Tesla's credit sales during the company'sQ2 2020 earnings call:\n\n ...we don't manage the business with the assumption that regulatory credits will contribute in a significant way to the future... eventually, the stream of regulatory credits will reduce.\n\nThat means no, not all profit is created equal. An ongoing profit stream from a viable business deserves a valuation multiple. Conversely, a temporary profit stream should be looked through when assessing the long-term value of a business. Since Tesla investors can not count on regulatory credits continuing beyond the next few years, it only makes sense to strip out their impact from the income statement. When you do that, you see that virtually nothing to justify Tesla's manic share price rally in 2020 - the core manufacturing business remains structurally unprofitable:\n\nMeanwhile, it's not just the rearview financials in the core business that remain unchanged.Jim Chanos recently notedhow the forward analyst estimates for Tesla's 2022 - 2023 earnings are the same as in mid-2019, back when shares traded for $50:\n\n That kind of tells you a little bit about what's happened in the marketplace in that valuations have just gone parabolic for basically a company that's still, in the eyes of analysts, earning at or below where they thought it would be earning two years ago. That's kind of incredible.\n\nSo if neither the trailing business fundamentals nor the forward earnings outlook changed, that leaves only one variable left to explain what sent Tesla shares from $50 to $850: investor psychology. More specifically, manic psychology, fueling a mad scramble for unprofitable companies across the board:\n\nThus, Tesla's parabolic price appreciation is merely one of the countless cases of speculative excess playing out across the financial markets. Make no mistake, the coming unwind of this excess is a question of when, not if. When that day comes, the fallout will likely spread throughout financial markets, taking down the innocent bystanders as collateral damage. That's why I'm betting against Tesla as a hedge against this coming unwind. And the reason Tesla makes such a compelling candidate for a price re-rating is, well... how many other trillion dollar companies do you know of that don't make money in their core business?\nTake away the regulatory profit stream - which will start happening this year - and there's no reason why Tesla should trade for anything above the net cash on the balance sheet - which currently sits at around $7 billion, or about $6 per share on a fully diluted basis. Meanwhile, what's the upside case in the scenario where Tesla transforms itself into a profitable car company? Let's briefly consider that scenario...\nTesla Shares Face 90% Downside, Even with Perfect Execution\nLet's suspend disbelief for a moment and give Tesla full credit for flawless execution on both top line growth and bottom line profitability going forward. For the top line growth assumption, let's simply use the forecast fromTesla's most recent earnings release, where the company guided for 50% annual growth rate in vehicle deliveries going forward. Before moving on, I'll simply note that this projection seems wildly optimistic given Tesla's depleted product pipeline. Both the Tesla Semi and Roadster have missed their original production deadlines by over a year, with no clear timeline yet on when production will begin. Meanwhile, the CyberTruck - Tesla's only mass market vehicle in the pipeline -also appears delayeduntil sometime between 2022 - 2023.\nBut even if we give Tesla full credit for this growth, one thing is clear - it will require massive capital investment. That means significant future equity issuance. Meanwhile, Tesla pays a significant portion of its employee salary expense via stock compensation, including Elon Musk's record shattering$56 billion stock bonus plan(saving the planet ain't cheap, apparently). The bottom line: equity dilution is a real issue for Tesla shareholders. Over the last five years, Tesla shareholders have suffered more than 50% dilution. Given the healthy cash pile currently on the balance sheet, let's conservatively assume the dilution rate slows to 5% annually going forward, starting from today's 1.2 billion fully diluted share count.\nNext, let's talk earnings. Remember, this is our aggressive bull case... so let's hold nothing back. We'll assume that Tesla transforms from a structurally unprofitable automaker into one of the most profitable car companies on the planet - matching the 6% net margins earned by Toyota, the mass market industry leader in profitability.\nFinally, let's give Tesla a best-in-class 25x earnings multiple. That's a more than 300% valuation premium over the industry average of roughly 8x earnings, and more than twice the earnings multiple on Toyota. Putting it all together, the table below shows the key assumptions and annual price targets out to 2025:\n\nIn other words...\nTesla shares face more than 90% downside risk through 2022, even in the aggressive bull case scenario.\nIn future articles, I'll dive deeper into the weeds to show why there's very little chance of Tesla achieving anything close to the targets outlined above. For now, the key takeaway is that even these fantasy fundamentals barely justify a $50 price target.\nBefore wrapping up this analysis and moving on to the trade idea, let me address the final key talking point bulls use to justify Tesla's trillion dollar valuation...\nWhat About the Robotaxis?\nStarting in late 2016,Elon Musk has promisedthe imminent release of Level 5 full self driving capability in all Tesla vehicles. The promise all along has been that, every Tesla rolling off the assembly line contained the necessary hardware for full self driving, and it was only a matter of developing the software to achieve Level 5 autonomy.\nAs a brief bit of background, Level 5 is the highest of6 SAE-defined levels of vehicle autonomy(ranging from 0 to 5). A level 5 vehicle can fully navigate through all environments with zero human supervision. Over the last several years, Musk has made a series of autonomy promises to both consumers and investors which have so far failed to materialize. This includes a2019 capital raise, during which Musk promised a future \"robotaxi\" network that would include a million autonomous Tesla's on the road by 2020. Musk has even claimed that Tesla owners could lend their vehicles out to this future robotaxi network andearn as much as $30,000 per year.\nThose were the promises, but here's the reality... more than four years after making the original promise, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 autonomy. As described in the graphic below, Level 2 autonomy is nothing more than a basic driver assistance feature, which many other automakers currently offer:\nSource (notations by author)\nDespite the endless string of autonomy promises that have gone unfulfilled for more than four years, Musk remains undeterred in continuing to make aggressive projections to investors. On the company's latest earnings, Musk talked up a forecast of $50 billion in future earnings from the non-existent robotaxi network,as CNBC reports:\n\n On the company’s earnings call on Wednesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the valuation makes sense if you assume that billions of dollars worth of cars become robotaxis.He said $50 billion in car sales could produce another $50 billion in “incremental profit” with software margins.\n\nIn other words - ignore the broken autonomy promises over the last four years, and just assume this non-existent robotaxi network will become one of the world's most profitable businesses in the future. I'll save the full autonomy analysis for the future, except to say - if you buy into this projection, then sure, a trillion dollar valuation for Tesla stock can make sense. I'll happily take the other side of that bet.\nAnd without a miracle windfall from robotaxis, there's nothing to stop Mr. Market from repricing Tesla as the unprofitable automaker that it is when today's mania unravels. Which brings us to the final point of this article - the Tesla options trade I'm using to hedge against the unraveling of speculative excess in today's market.\nA Tesla Hedging Trade with Over 10x Upside\nThe full discussion of put option mechanics goes beyond the scope of today's article, but for a high level overview, think of put options as the stock market's version of an insurance policy. Just like your monthly car insurance premiums, most put options expire worthless... but during a crash, they can pay off in a big way.\nPut options achieve this pay off structure by providing short exposure to 100 shares of an underlying stock at the option strike price, up until the expiration date. You pay a premium for the privilege of gaining this short exposure, in the form of the upfront price of the option contract. The reason most options expire worthless is because the stock price must move far enough below the strike price to offset the cost of the option, within a limited time frame (i.e. before the expiration date).\nAnd that brings us to the two key elements of selecting a put option: a target price and a time frame. I just explained the fundamental case for a downside target of $50 in Tesla shares. And from a technical perspective, Tesla based at around $50 in the fourth quarter of 2019 before launching into a parabolic melt-up. The history of parabolic advances says that, when they end, the stock price often revisits the launch pad - which would bring Tesla back to around $50. Meanwhile, in order to give this trade plenty of time, I'm looking out to January 2022 as a rough time frame.\n\nSo this time frame gives a straight forward decision on the option expiration date of January 21, 2022. Meanwhile, in order to give the position plenty of room to be wrong and still pay off, I'll select a strike price of $300. There's a delicate balance when selecting strike prices - a lower strike would provide a higher return, but also come with a lower probability of pay off. As I'll show below, selecting a $300 strike price still provides the chance of earning a decent return even if my $50 downside target proves too aggressive.\nBut before considering the return potential, we have to know the price of the option. At the close of trading on Monday, the $300 strike Tesla put option expiring on January 21, 2022 traded for around $15.75, as shown below:\n\nGiven the 100-share multiplier, the $15.75 quoted price translates into a total cost of $1,575 (plus fees/commissions). With this information, we can determine the return potential of the option for a range of scenarios. In the case where Tesla closes at or above $300 by the expiration date, the option expires worthless, resulting in a 100% loss. Alternatively, if Tesla closes below $300, then the option gains $100 in value for every $1 below the $300 strike price. The table below summarizes this range of scenarios:\n(Note: for simplicity, I assume the option is held until just before the expiration date, and then closed out without exercising the contract).\nSo in the downside scenario outlined earlier, where Tesla trades down to $50 by the January 2022 expiration date, the option value grows from $1,650 to $25,000 - for a gain of about 1,400%. However, even if this downside target proves too aggressive, there's still scope to make a reasonable return. If shares only fall to, say $200, the option still returns roughly 500%.\nAs you can see, it only take a small allocation within an overall portfolio to gain substantial hedging exposure with a trade like this. Of course, recency bias might make $50 or even $200 per share seem outlandish for a stock trading near $850 today. But let's not forget that Tesla was within“single digit weeks” of bankruptcyas recently as 2018. And in May of 2019, topTesla analyst Adam Jonasdescribed the company as “a distressed credit and restructuring story”, with a $10 downside price target (or $2 pre-split).\nThe core business remains virtually unchanged from 2018 and 2019 - when terms like \"bankruptcy\" and \"restructuring\" were on the table. The only key difference is that Tesla now enjoys a positive net cash balance, which takes an immediate bankruptcy scenario off the table. But with less than $10 per share in net cash, this should provide little consolation for the bulls as a valuation floor.\nAll that really needs to happen is for Tesla to continue on its current path of losing money in its core business, and catastrophic downside is in store for the stock. And that's not just my opinion - Elon Musk himself fully recognizes this risk, as he noted in a recentemail to employees:\n\n Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a souffle under a sledgehammer!\n\nGoing forward, my money's on the sledgehammer, not the soufflé.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383141476,"gmtCreate":1612858627895,"gmtModify":1704875014970,"author":{"id":"3575929632521499","authorId":"3575929632521499","name":"Kencer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575929632521499","authorIdStr":"3575929632521499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nothing, its worth nothing","listText":"Nothing, its worth nothing","text":"Nothing, its worth nothing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383141476","repostId":"1179951171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179951171","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1612852766,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179951171?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-09 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lost in the 'Gamestonks' mania - What is GameStop actually worth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179951171","media":"Reuters","summary":"Shares of video game retailer GameStop Corp have been on a wild ride. Analysts who cover the company","content":"<p>Shares of video game retailer GameStop Corp have been on a wild ride. Analysts who cover the company, however, remain unmoved from their conviction that the stock still has much further to fall before it meets reality.</p>\n<p>The company’s shares soared more than 1,600% in January as retail investors, urged on by popular Reddit forum WallStreetBets, bought the stock as a way to punish hedge funds that had taken an outsized short bet against it.</p>\n<p>While few on the forums have posted their breakdown of what they think is the fair value of a share of GameStock, a popular YouTube streamer named Keith Patrick Gill, who posted under the name the Roaring Kitty, suggested in videos prior to the short squeeze that it was worth at least $50 per share.</p>\n<p>The company’s stock fell 5.9% to $60 in Monday trading.</p>\n<p>Analysts who cover GameStock see it worth on average $13.44 per share, a 78% drop from its current trading price, highlighting the wide gulf between how Wall Street and amateur investors view a stock that has become a symbol of the growing power of retail investors.</p>\n<p>“I’ve worked on Wall Street for over 20 years and what is happening with GameStop is the most nonsensical, insane thing I’ve ever seen in my entire career,” said Anthony Chukumba, a managing director at Loop Capital who covered the company for more than 10 years but recently dropped his coverage due to a lack of interest by institutional investors.</p>\n<p>“GameStop at most is worth $10 a share,” Chukumba said, given its declining market share. “We’ve seen short squeezes happen all the time but we’ve never seen a stock become so disconnected from the fundamentals.”</p>\n<p><b>FOCUS TO DIGITAL</b></p>\n<p>At heart is whether the company will be able to transition to a focus on digital sales without losing its profitable used games business, which at gross margins of approxamitely 50% is by far its most lucrative business segment.</p>\n<p>GameStop did not respond to a request for comment.</p>\n<p>In an unlikely “bright blue sky” scenario, GameStop shares would be worth $125 each, assuming a 20 times multiple of earnings per share of $6.29 in 2024, said Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Robert W. Baird &amp; Co. That would only be possible if GameStop boosts margins by saving $500 million annually by closing its 2,500 physical locations while retaining its market share against competitors such as Best Buy Co Inc and Target Corp, he said.</p>\n<p>That scenario has at most a 5% probability of happening, Sebastian noted. Far more likely is that GameStop will benefit from faster e-commerce growth while closing stores at a delayed pace with a slower rollout of new services, leaving its shares worth $13 each, he said.</p>\n<p>A “storm cloud” scenario, meanwhile, in which customers abandon the store and push the company’s share price to zero, is three times more likely to happen than a successful transition to a digital marketplace, Sebastian said.</p>\n<p>The company's current average target price among analysts is nearly double that of November, shortly before Ryan Cohen, one of the company's largest shareholders, urged it in a Nov. 16 letterhereto focus on digital sales.</p>\n<p>Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, currently has a $16 per share price target for the company but said that “you could convince me that it’s worth $24” per share depending on its ability to transition to a digital-first business.</p>\n<p>Yet the stock’s price has become disconnected from its intrinsic value, leaving it inevitable that it will collapse, he said.</p>\n<p>“They are a real company with real profits and the management team is good,” Pachter said. “I was telling the shorts when it was at $8 that it’s not going to zero.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lost in the 'Gamestonks' mania - What is GameStop actually worth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLost in the 'Gamestonks' mania - What is GameStop actually worth?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-09 14:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of video game retailer GameStop Corp have been on a wild ride. Analysts who cover the company, however, remain unmoved from their conviction that the stock still has much further to fall before it meets reality.</p>\n<p>The company’s shares soared more than 1,600% in January as retail investors, urged on by popular Reddit forum WallStreetBets, bought the stock as a way to punish hedge funds that had taken an outsized short bet against it.</p>\n<p>While few on the forums have posted their breakdown of what they think is the fair value of a share of GameStock, a popular YouTube streamer named Keith Patrick Gill, who posted under the name the Roaring Kitty, suggested in videos prior to the short squeeze that it was worth at least $50 per share.</p>\n<p>The company’s stock fell 5.9% to $60 in Monday trading.</p>\n<p>Analysts who cover GameStock see it worth on average $13.44 per share, a 78% drop from its current trading price, highlighting the wide gulf between how Wall Street and amateur investors view a stock that has become a symbol of the growing power of retail investors.</p>\n<p>“I’ve worked on Wall Street for over 20 years and what is happening with GameStop is the most nonsensical, insane thing I’ve ever seen in my entire career,” said Anthony Chukumba, a managing director at Loop Capital who covered the company for more than 10 years but recently dropped his coverage due to a lack of interest by institutional investors.</p>\n<p>“GameStop at most is worth $10 a share,” Chukumba said, given its declining market share. “We’ve seen short squeezes happen all the time but we’ve never seen a stock become so disconnected from the fundamentals.”</p>\n<p><b>FOCUS TO DIGITAL</b></p>\n<p>At heart is whether the company will be able to transition to a focus on digital sales without losing its profitable used games business, which at gross margins of approxamitely 50% is by far its most lucrative business segment.</p>\n<p>GameStop did not respond to a request for comment.</p>\n<p>In an unlikely “bright blue sky” scenario, GameStop shares would be worth $125 each, assuming a 20 times multiple of earnings per share of $6.29 in 2024, said Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Robert W. Baird &amp; Co. That would only be possible if GameStop boosts margins by saving $500 million annually by closing its 2,500 physical locations while retaining its market share against competitors such as Best Buy Co Inc and Target Corp, he said.</p>\n<p>That scenario has at most a 5% probability of happening, Sebastian noted. Far more likely is that GameStop will benefit from faster e-commerce growth while closing stores at a delayed pace with a slower rollout of new services, leaving its shares worth $13 each, he said.</p>\n<p>A “storm cloud” scenario, meanwhile, in which customers abandon the store and push the company’s share price to zero, is three times more likely to happen than a successful transition to a digital marketplace, Sebastian said.</p>\n<p>The company's current average target price among analysts is nearly double that of November, shortly before Ryan Cohen, one of the company's largest shareholders, urged it in a Nov. 16 letterhereto focus on digital sales.</p>\n<p>Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, currently has a $16 per share price target for the company but said that “you could convince me that it’s worth $24” per share depending on its ability to transition to a digital-first business.</p>\n<p>Yet the stock’s price has become disconnected from its intrinsic value, leaving it inevitable that it will collapse, he said.</p>\n<p>“They are a real company with real profits and the management team is good,” Pachter said. “I was telling the shorts when it was at $8 that it’s not going to zero.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179951171","content_text":"Shares of video game retailer GameStop Corp have been on a wild ride. Analysts who cover the company, however, remain unmoved from their conviction that the stock still has much further to fall before it meets reality.\nThe company’s shares soared more than 1,600% in January as retail investors, urged on by popular Reddit forum WallStreetBets, bought the stock as a way to punish hedge funds that had taken an outsized short bet against it.\nWhile few on the forums have posted their breakdown of what they think is the fair value of a share of GameStock, a popular YouTube streamer named Keith Patrick Gill, who posted under the name the Roaring Kitty, suggested in videos prior to the short squeeze that it was worth at least $50 per share.\nThe company’s stock fell 5.9% to $60 in Monday trading.\nAnalysts who cover GameStock see it worth on average $13.44 per share, a 78% drop from its current trading price, highlighting the wide gulf between how Wall Street and amateur investors view a stock that has become a symbol of the growing power of retail investors.\n“I’ve worked on Wall Street for over 20 years and what is happening with GameStop is the most nonsensical, insane thing I’ve ever seen in my entire career,” said Anthony Chukumba, a managing director at Loop Capital who covered the company for more than 10 years but recently dropped his coverage due to a lack of interest by institutional investors.\n“GameStop at most is worth $10 a share,” Chukumba said, given its declining market share. “We’ve seen short squeezes happen all the time but we’ve never seen a stock become so disconnected from the fundamentals.”\nFOCUS TO DIGITAL\nAt heart is whether the company will be able to transition to a focus on digital sales without losing its profitable used games business, which at gross margins of approxamitely 50% is by far its most lucrative business segment.\nGameStop did not respond to a request for comment.\nIn an unlikely “bright blue sky” scenario, GameStop shares would be worth $125 each, assuming a 20 times multiple of earnings per share of $6.29 in 2024, said Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co. That would only be possible if GameStop boosts margins by saving $500 million annually by closing its 2,500 physical locations while retaining its market share against competitors such as Best Buy Co Inc and Target Corp, he said.\nThat scenario has at most a 5% probability of happening, Sebastian noted. Far more likely is that GameStop will benefit from faster e-commerce growth while closing stores at a delayed pace with a slower rollout of new services, leaving its shares worth $13 each, he said.\nA “storm cloud” scenario, meanwhile, in which customers abandon the store and push the company’s share price to zero, is three times more likely to happen than a successful transition to a digital marketplace, Sebastian said.\nThe company's current average target price among analysts is nearly double that of November, shortly before Ryan Cohen, one of the company's largest shareholders, urged it in a Nov. 16 letterhereto focus on digital sales.\nMichael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, currently has a $16 per share price target for the company but said that “you could convince me that it’s worth $24” per share depending on its ability to transition to a digital-first business.\nYet the stock’s price has become disconnected from its intrinsic value, leaving it inevitable that it will collapse, he said.\n“They are a real company with real profits and the management team is good,” Pachter said. “I was telling the shorts when it was at $8 that it’s not going to zero.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383149822,"gmtCreate":1612858336366,"gmtModify":1704875011815,"author":{"id":"3575929632521499","authorId":"3575929632521499","name":"Kencer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575929632521499","authorIdStr":"3575929632521499"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hype","listText":"Hype","text":"Hype","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383149822","repostId":"2110059821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2110059821","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612856757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2110059821?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-09 15:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Boots the Bitcoin Bandwagon Closer to Corporate America","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110059821","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Other corporate treasurers will invest in Bitcoin: FundstratBitcoin surged to a record Tuesday after","content":"<ul><li>Other corporate treasurers will invest in Bitcoin: Fundstrat</li><li>Bitcoin surged to a record Tuesday after Tesla investment</li></ul><p>Tesla Inc.’s purchase of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin may have forced cryptocurrencies onto the agenda of corporate treasurers worldwide.</p><p>While crypto acolytes have been saying for some time that corporate adoption is imminent, in reality it had been limited to firms such as MicroStrategy Inc. and Square Inc. Tesla getting involved -- the fourth biggest company in the S&amp;P 500 and helmed by the world’s&nbsp;richest&nbsp;man -- brings the discussion to the big leagues.</p><p>“We see fundamental reasons for corporate crypto treasury exposure and expect others to follow suit,” wrote strategists at Fundstrat GlobalAdvisorsincluding David Grider on Monday, citing increased payment acceptance and the threat of disruption from blockchain. “We don’t think this happens overnight, but we do think there’s much more room for corporate treasury penetration and expect the trend to continue.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/711d0b6d8a3fa75eb5a76824ac3d17e7\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin hit a fresh record above $47,000 on Tuesday after Tesla signaled its intent to begin accepting the cryptocurrency as a form of payment. It quadrupled last year and is up another 60% so far this year amid endorsements from high-profile investors like Paul Tudor Jones and companies like&nbsp;PayPal Holdings Inc.</p><p>Still, though Tesla’s investment of $1.5 billion makes up about 8% of its most recent cash reserves, it’s a drop in the ocean compared to the holdings of America’s blue-chip corporates. The purchase is worth just 0.05% of the $2.79 trillion of cash and cash-equivalents held on the balance sheets of S&amp;P 500 members, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p><b>Too Risky</b></p><p>For the likes of treasurers, the asset class is just too risky, according to James Angel, an associate professor at Georgetown University. There is no compelling business case for Tesla, or any other corporation, to speculate in Bitcoin, he said in e-mailed comments.</p><p>“Corporate cash managers are generally quite conservative and invest corporate cash balances in safe liquid assets,” Angel said. “Bitcoin is highly volatile and can easily go up or down 10% in a day or 50% in a year -- certainly not a good short-term store of value.”</p><p>And while Tesla announced plans to accept Bitcoin for purchases, hardly anyone uses the cryptocurrency for anything beyond speculation. Data from New York-based blockchain researcher Chainalysis Inc. showed that only 1.3% of economic transactions came from merchants in the first four months of 2019.</p><p><b>Corporate Interest</b></p><p>Others disagree and insist there is growing interest from the corporate world. MicroStrategy’s CEO Michael Saylor last week hosted a seminar on corporate adoption and said beforehand that professionals from more than 1,400 firms&nbsp;were expected to join.</p><p>“Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset is not yet a mainstream business strategy, but firms like MicroStrategy and now Tesla are highly visible advocates,” said Seamus Donoghue, vice president of sales and business development at digital infrastructure provider Metaco. “With such vocal sponsors leading corporate adoption, further adoption will follow much faster than currently expected.”</p><p>Some sectors may warm to Bitcoin more quickly than others, with tech firms and financial companies likely to be more disposed to the idea of digital currencies, according to Fundstrat.</p><p>“I wouldn’t be surprised to have an announcement from some of the tech giants Facebook or Google within the year,” said Amber Ghaddar, founder of fintech firm AllianceBlock. “But I think the road is still long for the more traditional treasurers.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Boots the Bitcoin Bandwagon Closer to Corporate America\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-09 15:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/tesla-boots-the-bitcoin-bandwagon-closer-to-corporate-america?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Other corporate treasurers will invest in Bitcoin: FundstratBitcoin surged to a record Tuesday after Tesla investmentTesla Inc.’s purchase of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin may have forced cryptocurrencies ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/tesla-boots-the-bitcoin-bandwagon-closer-to-corporate-america?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/5A53Wli54zP6QjdUieYHGA--~B/aD02NzU7dz0xMjAwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/W8IFMtFAnKekFX2UrITS9Q--~B/aD02NzU7dz0xMjAwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_markets_842/7818721c02b25e6b2e0efd4304e7a56b","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","TSLA":"特斯拉","MSTR":"MicroStrategy"},"source_url":"http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/tesla-boots-the-bitcoin-bandwagon-closer-to-corporate-america?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110059821","content_text":"Other corporate treasurers will invest in Bitcoin: FundstratBitcoin surged to a record Tuesday after Tesla investmentTesla Inc.’s purchase of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin may have forced cryptocurrencies onto the agenda of corporate treasurers worldwide.While crypto acolytes have been saying for some time that corporate adoption is imminent, in reality it had been limited to firms such as MicroStrategy Inc. and Square Inc. Tesla getting involved -- the fourth biggest company in the S&P 500 and helmed by the world’s richest man -- brings the discussion to the big leagues.“We see fundamental reasons for corporate crypto treasury exposure and expect others to follow suit,” wrote strategists at Fundstrat GlobalAdvisorsincluding David Grider on Monday, citing increased payment acceptance and the threat of disruption from blockchain. “We don’t think this happens overnight, but we do think there’s much more room for corporate treasury penetration and expect the trend to continue.”Bitcoin hit a fresh record above $47,000 on Tuesday after Tesla signaled its intent to begin accepting the cryptocurrency as a form of payment. It quadrupled last year and is up another 60% so far this year amid endorsements from high-profile investors like Paul Tudor Jones and companies like PayPal Holdings Inc.Still, though Tesla’s investment of $1.5 billion makes up about 8% of its most recent cash reserves, it’s a drop in the ocean compared to the holdings of America’s blue-chip corporates. The purchase is worth just 0.05% of the $2.79 trillion of cash and cash-equivalents held on the balance sheets of S&P 500 members, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Too RiskyFor the likes of treasurers, the asset class is just too risky, according to James Angel, an associate professor at Georgetown University. There is no compelling business case for Tesla, or any other corporation, to speculate in Bitcoin, he said in e-mailed comments.“Corporate cash managers are generally quite conservative and invest corporate cash balances in safe liquid assets,” Angel said. “Bitcoin is highly volatile and can easily go up or down 10% in a day or 50% in a year -- certainly not a good short-term store of value.”And while Tesla announced plans to accept Bitcoin for purchases, hardly anyone uses the cryptocurrency for anything beyond speculation. Data from New York-based blockchain researcher Chainalysis Inc. showed that only 1.3% of economic transactions came from merchants in the first four months of 2019.Corporate InterestOthers disagree and insist there is growing interest from the corporate world. MicroStrategy’s CEO Michael Saylor last week hosted a seminar on corporate adoption and said beforehand that professionals from more than 1,400 firms were expected to join.“Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset is not yet a mainstream business strategy, but firms like MicroStrategy and now Tesla are highly visible advocates,” said Seamus Donoghue, vice president of sales and business development at digital infrastructure provider Metaco. “With such vocal sponsors leading corporate adoption, further adoption will follow much faster than currently expected.”Some sectors may warm to Bitcoin more quickly than others, with tech firms and financial companies likely to be more disposed to the idea of digital currencies, according to Fundstrat.“I wouldn’t be surprised to have an announcement from some of the tech giants Facebook or Google within the year,” said Amber Ghaddar, founder of fintech firm AllianceBlock. “But I think the road is still long for the more traditional treasurers.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}