Precious Metals 2-4 week buy the dip opportunity due to Chinese New Year & USA tax refunds.
Given the sell off in precious metals I believe there is a sweet spot now where we will see synchronised buying increase from both Chinese and USA households: 1) Chinese New Year is approaching and this is where buying typically spikes, alongside local premiums. This may occur against already elevated Shanghai vs London/international exchange premiums. In short, Chinese premiums suck more metal into China, driving international prices higher. See attached charts. 2) The One Big Beautiful Bill tax refunds in the USA will begin to hit individual accounts as early as end of this week, so from next week, we should see increased buying in USA, alongside China for 1-2 weeks. SLV US and GLD US both appealing alongaide out of the money calls, up to end of March to capitalize upon this trend.<
$CONICO LTD(CNJ.AU)$ Rare Earths & Greenland play. I am adding Conico to my Greenland basket, wee my longer note for more details on the investment thesis.
$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ Buying volatility for protection of portfolio in case something happens over the weekend. Kindly note these VIX ETFs are not suited to long term holding typically, so this will be used as a short term hedge and I likely close out beginning of next week.
Precious metals have performed very strongly and we may be approaching a good profit take opportunity, with a plurality of potential catalysts this weekend providing for a short term trade over the weekend: 1) USA Government shutdown. 2) Potential USA military actions vs Iran (or elsewhere), assuming Trump's recent preferred timing over weekends for such events. 3) Minneapolis escalation - it has been brutally cold and snowy weather the last few days and is due to moderate, alongside if being a weekend. We could see increased people on the streets. It's not improbable several or all of these occur simultaneously, leading to a classic buy the rumour, sell the fact trade on gold and silver, onmonday, in particular call options on both.$SPDR Gold ETF
$SK Telecom(SKM)$ More buzz around SK Telecom becoming a local AI champion. The trade is working and should continue short term. Also, recently announced new tarrifs on Korea could help this trade, as investors look for secular growth tech stories, domestically focused rather than more cyclical export orientated tech names.