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- liying富婆liying富婆
  ·2023-02-07
  Yes
  Watch out for bear market traps! Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley Both Warn: The Fed Will Not Turn Easily
  摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。
  Watch out for bear market traps! Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley Both Warn: The Fed Will Not Turn Easily
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- liying富婆liying富婆
  ·2021-09-13
  Xiaomi good
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- liying富婆liying富婆
  ·2021-09-13
  good apple
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Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley Both Warn: The Fed Will Not Turn Easily","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2309327008","media":"金十数据","summary":"摩根士丹利指出，盈利衰退即将重创股市的一个重要预兆已经浮现！摩根大通著名多头表示，美联储将缓慢改变政策路线，建议继续减持美股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley pointed out that an important omen that an earnings recession is about to hit the stock market hard has emerged! A well-known bull at JPMorgan Chase said that the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course and suggested continuing to reduce its holdings of US stocks.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></b>Investors should not believe they are witnessing the beginning of a new bull market, and an earnings recession will remain the main obstacle to any gains in U.S. stocks this year, it said in a note on Monday.</p><p>\"While last week's events didn't lead to an immediate reversal of the recent bear market rally, we also don't think it indicates that a new bull market had already opened in October last year.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfd4b720ededab49269ef080e396189\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P 500 has risen 15% from its lows in October last year</p><p>Strategists warn that headwinds are not subsiding,<b>The rate cut may be later than expected.</b>Citing a strong labor market and a strong dollar, they said these are signs that the economy can still withstand tighter conditions and that the Federal Reserve may still keep interest rates high. The report said:</p><p>\"There's really no reason for equity investors to get excited about a rate cut.\" In addition, the strategists said,<b>A forward-looking gauge of S&P 500 earnings per share growth turned negative on Friday, underscoring an important omen that an earnings recession is about to hit stocks hard</b>。 Negative EPS growth has only occurred four times in the past 23 years, and every year it has been accompanied by a \"significant\" market decline. The strategist added:</p><p>\"What makes this analysis even more convincing is that historically, most of the stock's price decline has occurred after forward EPS growth has turned negative. In other words, this earnings recession has not been priced in in our view,\" Morgan Stanley has warned for months that investors' earnings expectations are still too high and the market has not fully priced in the pain of an earnings recession, which could lead to a repeat of the 2008 downturn. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief equity strategist, said,<b>Stocks could fall as much as 20% in the first half of this year</b>, he warned investors to prepare for more near-term volatility.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b>Strategist Marko Kolanovic also reiterated on Monday that investors should ignore the stock market rally triggered by last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, because the disinflation process in the U.S. economy may only be \"temporary.\"</p><p><i>Note: The rate of inflation is declining, and the economy is still in a state of inflation at this time.</i></p><p>Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients that he believes the first three months of the year could mark an \"inflection point for the market,\" with the second and third quarters likely to enter a bumpy period, followed by another deterioration in fundamentals by the end of the year as the Fed will likely keep interest rates high for some time.</p><p>\"We recommend taking advantage of the current market rally to reduce exposure,\" the team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote. He noted that risk sentiment had previously led investors to re-flood into speculative assets such as crypto-related stocks and Meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market may have poured cold water on a \"soft landing\" scenario, in which the Fed may struggle to curb inflation while the economy continues to grow. According to Kolanovic, if a \"soft landing\" is not achieved, it will lead to<b>This Year's Stock Market Winners See Mean Reversion</b>。</p><p>After a larger-than-expected surge in non-farm payrolls last Friday hit market expectations for a rate cut, Kolanovic now<b>The Fed is expected to rate hike 25 basis points each in March and May, and then keep interest rates high for an extended period of time.</b>Even if headline inflation is expected to decline, Kolanovic expects<b>Rising wages will put pressure on corporate profit margins, which may trigger more layoffs.</b>He added:</p><p>\"So in this scenario, there's nothing to celebrate about the inflation slide, as interest rates are in a more restrictive state and the Fed will slowly change policy course unless a risk event forces a rate reset.\" One of Wall Street's biggest optimists, Kolanovic fell through most of his projections in 2022. He has since changed his views and cut his stock allocation in mid-December due to the weak economic outlook this year. Last month, he said the economy was heading for a downturn. Amid concerns about a recession and excessive Fed tightening, the bank recommended reducing its stocks again.</p><p>However, Kolanovic urged investors to buy Chinese stocks on dips during the downturn in October last year. This call proved correct, and the MSCI China index has risen more than 26% since early October last year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Watch out for bear market traps! Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley Both Warn: The Fed Will Not Turn Easily</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWatch out for bear market traps! Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley Both Warn: The Fed Will Not Turn Easily\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-07 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley pointed out that an important omen that an earnings recession is about to hit the stock market hard has emerged! A well-known bull at JPMorgan Chase said that the Federal Reserve will slowly change its policy course and suggested continuing to reduce its holdings of US stocks.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a></b>Investors should not believe they are witnessing the beginning of a new bull market, and an earnings recession will remain the main obstacle to any gains in U.S. stocks this year, it said in a note on Monday.</p><p>\"While last week's events didn't lead to an immediate reversal of the recent bear market rally, we also don't think it indicates that a new bull market had already opened in October last year.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfd4b720ededab49269ef080e396189\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P 500 has risen 15% from its lows in October last year</p><p>Strategists warn that headwinds are not subsiding,<b>The rate cut may be later than expected.</b>Citing a strong labor market and a strong dollar, they said these are signs that the economy can still withstand tighter conditions and that the Federal Reserve may still keep interest rates high. The report said:</p><p>\"There's really no reason for equity investors to get excited about a rate cut.\" In addition, the strategists said,<b>A forward-looking gauge of S&P 500 earnings per share growth turned negative on Friday, underscoring an important omen that an earnings recession is about to hit stocks hard</b>。 Negative EPS growth has only occurred four times in the past 23 years, and every year it has been accompanied by a \"significant\" market decline. The strategist added:</p><p>\"What makes this analysis even more convincing is that historically, most of the stock's price decline has occurred after forward EPS growth has turned negative. In other words, this earnings recession has not been priced in in our view,\" Morgan Stanley has warned for months that investors' earnings expectations are still too high and the market has not fully priced in the pain of an earnings recession, which could lead to a repeat of the 2008 downturn. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief equity strategist, said,<b>Stocks could fall as much as 20% in the first half of this year</b>, he warned investors to prepare for more near-term volatility.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b>Strategist Marko Kolanovic also reiterated on Monday that investors should ignore the stock market rally triggered by last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, because the disinflation process in the U.S. economy may only be \"temporary.\"</p><p><i>Note: The rate of inflation is declining, and the economy is still in a state of inflation at this time.</i></p><p>Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients that he believes the first three months of the year could mark an \"inflection point for the market,\" with the second and third quarters likely to enter a bumpy period, followed by another deterioration in fundamentals by the end of the year as the Fed will likely keep interest rates high for some time.</p><p>\"We recommend taking advantage of the current market rally to reduce exposure,\" the team of strategists led by Kolanovic wrote. He noted that risk sentiment had previously led investors to re-flood into speculative assets such as crypto-related stocks and Meme stocks.</p><p>A strong labor market may have poured cold water on a \"soft landing\" scenario, in which the Fed may struggle to curb inflation while the economy continues to grow. According to Kolanovic, if a \"soft landing\" is not achieved, it will lead to<b>This Year's Stock Market Winners See Mean Reversion</b>。</p><p>After a larger-than-expected surge in non-farm payrolls last Friday hit market expectations for a rate cut, Kolanovic now<b>The Fed is expected to rate hike 25 basis points each in March and May, and then keep interest rates high for an extended period of time.</b>Even if headline inflation is expected to decline, Kolanovic expects<b>Rising wages will put pressure on corporate profit margins, which may trigger more layoffs.</b>He added:</p><p>\"So in this scenario, there's nothing to celebrate about the inflation slide, as interest rates are in a more restrictive state and the Fed will slowly change policy course unless a risk event forces a rate reset.\" One of Wall Street's biggest optimists, Kolanovic fell through most of his projections in 2022. He has since changed his views and cut his stock allocation in mid-December due to the weak economic outlook this year. Last month, he said the economy was heading for a downturn. Amid concerns about a recession and excessive Fed tightening, the bank recommended reducing its stocks again.</p><p>However, Kolanovic urged investors to buy Chinese stocks on dips during the downturn in October last year. This call proved correct, and the MSCI China index has risen more than 26% since early October last year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=106281&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c732cf736e36e00309314a57f283d159","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - 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