To The Moon

At the June FOMC meeting, Fed unsurprisingly paused the rate hikes. However, Fed Chairman Powell stated during the subsequent press conference, “This pause does not imply that the benchmark interest rate has reached its peak.” The dot plot released at the same time indicated that FOMC members anticipate two additional rate hikes totaling 50 bps by the end of this year.Strangely, the market seemed unfazed by such hawkish remarks, and US stocks only experienced a slight decline on that day. Looking at the Fed Fund Futures traded in the market, the expected benchmark interest rate for December not only failed to surpass previous highs but also remained significantly lower than the median of 5.625% indicated in the Fed's dot plot.Source: BloombergSo, is the benchmark interest rate indicated by