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MinkyHuat

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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2023-03-29
  $Alibaba(BABA)$
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-08-06
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$yes it depends on the outcome of the meeting
  267 Comment
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-08-02
  Up down up down
  Hot Chinese ADRs Slid in Premarket Trading, With XPeng and Netease Falling Over 3%
  Hot Chinese ADRs slid in premarket trading, with XPeng and Netease falling over 3%.
  Hot Chinese ADRs Slid in Premarket Trading, With XPeng and Netease Falling Over 3%
  476 Comment
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-07-21
  Hopefully up
  Palantir: Prepare For War
  SummaryPalantir's Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a s
  Palantir: Prepare For War
  400 Comment
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-07-13
  $Twitter(TWTR)$26
  247 Comment
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-06-20
  Up up
  CICC Sees 30% Upside for NIO, Bullish on Growth Momentum for NT 2.0 Platform Models
  CICC says NIO is a leader in the premium smart electric vehicle segment, and that its NT 2.0 platfor
  CICC Sees 30% Upside for NIO, Bullish on Growth Momentum for NT 2.0 Platform Models
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-06-18
  Sad
  Alibaba Trimmed Its Gains Within 4% in Morning Trading
  Alibaba trimmed its gains within 4% in morning trading.It is reported that China's central bank has
  Alibaba Trimmed Its Gains Within 4% in Morning Trading
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-06-17
  Huat
  Better Buy: Amazon vs. Shopify
  Neither of these e-commerce giants has gotten any love from the stock market recently.
  Better Buy: Amazon vs. Shopify
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-06-17
  Please like
  Palantir: Much Ado About Nothing
  SummaryIn this article, we'll see how Palantir stands to be affected by rising interest rates from a
  Palantir: Much Ado About Nothing
  270 Comment
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- MinkyHuatMinkyHuat
  ·2022-06-07
  Yessss up
  Alibaba: One Of The Best Buying Opportunity As Worst Is Likely Over
  For a company like Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) with sentiment at all time lows, the co
  Alibaba: One Of The Best Buying Opportunity As Worst Is Likely Over
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down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908476374","repostId":"1173250363","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173250363","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659428395,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173250363?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-02 16:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese ADRs Slid in Premarket Trading, With XPeng and Netease Falling Over 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173250363","media":"Tiger 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16:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hot Chinese ADRs slid in premarket trading, with XPeng and Netease falling over 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a61b00c784457ff85b18e2a47707c3f2\" tg-width=\"259\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NTES":"网易","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173250363","content_text":"Hot Chinese ADRs slid in premarket trading, with XPeng and Netease falling over 3%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074405564,"gmtCreate":1658382929758,"gmtModify":1676536151142,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579773534390380","authorIdStr":"3579773534390380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully up","listText":"Hopefully up","text":"Hopefully up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074405564","repostId":"1165364438","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165364438","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658375442,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165364438?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 11:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Prepare For War","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165364438","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir&#39;s Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a strong positive.</li><li>There are many global risks that could spike demand from governments.</li><li>Palantir will report Q2 earnings in a few weeks, and our expectations have grown a bit more conservative, though the bottom looks in.</li><li>We anticipate a lot of debate on the results and bulls vs. bears prepare to battle.</li><li>Understanding how the current economic climate is impacting the business will be paramount.</li></ul><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a battleground stock. Over the last year returns (rather losses) have been absolutely brutal. Frankly, it has been a total disaster for longs, and shorts have succeeded. About a month ago, we hypothesized that the bottom was in. So far, we think that the bottom was recognized. The coming earnings (scheduled for August 8) will undoubtedly be a catalyst to send the stock moving in either direction on massive volumes.</p><p>To be clear, we are expecting a major move. Investors should prepare for a bull/bear war, and traders should be able to leverage the volatility in the short-term for some easy swing trade gains. That said, we still view Palantir as a long-term investment, and so long as management does not dilute shareholders into oblivion, we believe the stock will provide returns from the single-digit levels. We understand that there are still a lot of retail &#34;bag-holders&#34; out there who piled into the stock in the high teens or 20&#39;s.</p><p>The stock has more than made a round trip from its direct public offering price. We had been very bullish even in the 20s on the prospects for the company and the stock. Of course, the bear market of 2022 has had an iron grip on investors, and frankly just about every no-earnings or low-earnings tech stock has been obliterated from highs. It is not uncommon to see some of these down 60-70, even 80%. But the stock has emerged from the depths, and is quietly up 50% off lows.</p><p>Still, most investors are underwater. Traders have made money long and short. While we are traders week to week, we are also very long-term investors. And we hate to see investors lose money, and we know it can be painful. The question is, what can we expect going forward? The stock will be held back until it can reliably grow and slow down dilution. Further, in this column we look back to performance, and discuss the Q2 view that was provided by management. We also believe that the reported results may come in ahead of expectations on some areas (such as new customers and backlog), but below expectation in other areas, such as earnings per share.</p><p><b>The biggest short-term issues holding back shares</b></p><p>The stock has been beaten and then relatively pinned down due to being a high revenue growth, innovative tech stock. Palantir, and stocks of companies that are similar to it, are indeed often extremely expensive in the early stages of being public. They usually lose money and fight to grow sales, then eventually work toward breakeven, positive cash flow, and eventually, EPS positive. The thing is that you really cannot value these stock on an earnings basis because there are no or very little earnings. So, valuation woes are an issue. Even in the high single-digits the stock is expensive on most valuation measures. Prepare to hear that in the coming war between bulls and bears. It is coming. Overvalued vs. growth at a somewhat reasonable price. That will be one of the debates you see in the comment sections of articles discussing earnings.</p><p>The second issue, which has been discussed before, still remains a huge issue. Palantir has a massive dilution problem, which means consistent positive EPS gets kicked further down the road. We continue to think Palantir has a lot of potential, but this market is beyond unforgiving to those companies that do not make money or have sky high valuations. So by issuing stock based compensation, EPS gets lower and lower even if net income is positive or grows. For years, Palantir may lose money or breakeven. Of course, the theory goes that companies like this will lose money as they spend to attract customers and build their moat. They invest heavily in their growth while seeing revenues increase dramatically. And as we know, Palantir is seeing revenues grow tremendously. Stock based compensation, many would argue, is an investment to attract, acquire, and retain top talent in the tech field. There is a lot of merit to this argument. But in the first quarter of 2022, stock based compensation was still $149 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09be53dda6f898b0ed8fa77c8b310cfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir Q1 presentation</p><p>So, this makes increasing EPS all the more difficult. This is another area bears have ammunition in the war against bulls. It has merits. The larger subsequent risk could be that Palantir&#39;s growth fades some or new competitors could emerge, and income generation stalls. The added dilution could continue so long that positive EPS becomes out of reach without future buybacks. It is an issue, even though management acknowledged on the Q1 call that this is a problem.</p><p><b>Operational strengths and weaknesses: perceived or actual war is potentially profitable</b></p><p>You have all heard of the military industrial complex. Palantir has a role in it as governments pay a lot of money for defense (or offense). As we move into the 21st century data is becoming its own weapon. Knowledge is power. Decision making through algorithmic calculation is a gamechanger. Many governments (and businesses) believe the investment in data analytics to power decision-making is worth every cent. In Palantir&#39;s10-Q, it indicates it does not do business with those who seek to do harm to the U.S. or go against western democracy, but the many nations that are democratic need the data analysis. We think that government growth is a big future source of growth. For now, commercial growth has been the main driver.</p><p><b>Palantir&#39;s commercial segment strong</b></p><p>In the first quarter,performance was strong on the top line and ahead of consensus estimates. That is great. Again, this is mostly a revenue growth company that is close to breaking even consistently, with some losing and some winning quarters. Total revenue grew 31% year-over-year to $446 million, beating estimates by almost $3 million. However, its profitability was lower than expected by $0.02. Now, that said, Palantir has both government and commercial segments. The commercial revenue stream continues to grow rapidly, while government contracts have grown more moderately.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b540fc9ad93f28b10c2186261e94e45d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir Q1 presentation</p><p>The company added 37 customers on the commercial side. They also have expanded commercial revenue growth significantly, with commercial revenue rising 54% in Q1. We think we see some normalization in Q2, with 30-40% revenue growth. But war is good for business. And not just for government contracts. Businesses want to know how it may impact them too. Global peace is a hidden headwind to the company in our opinion.</p><p><b>Government segment growing, but slower</b></p><p>Palantir has expanded its sales team and they have been working to secure new orders. However, the Government revenues have slowed their growth somewhat, to just 16% from last year, 3 new customers on the government side. Revenue growth is trending in the wrong direction, for now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d116d2e2c0c1c490310366eb99d8c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir Q1 presentation</p><p>While revenue per customer is up, the revenue growth has clearly decelerated. We do believe that the government segment will see increased demand as global risks increase. We are closely watching for progress on this front when Q2 is reported. We do know of a few recent contracts, including the Army&#39;s Titan program,as well as the U.S. Space Systems.</p><p><b>Palantir is slightly profitable, for now</b></p><p>Make no mistake, Palantir is seeing very positive momentum in its margins, which is important in a software company. Adjusted gross margin was 81%. Contribution margin was 57%. First quarter adjusted income from operations, excluding stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes was $117 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 26%, ahead of management&#39;s prior guidance of 23%. This is positive.</p><p>However the Q2 expectations are not as bullish.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654d2b5ca7394c529bb854e40ed3a6b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir Q1 presentation</p><p>The biggest concern right now is not valuation. It is not dilution. It is not the &#34;overall market.&#34; The largest issue is a slowdown in performance and the Q2 guidance suggests a slowdown. Management guided to a base case of $470 million in revenue. This was below consensus of $484 million. Now some new contracts may indeed help this revenue figure. However, in the release management noted that &#34;there is a wide range of potential upside [for this] guidance.&#34; Palantir continues to see 30% annual revenue growth through 2025. But where our concerns are here is a lower guide on margins to just 20%. Labor is becoming more expensive. The company had been hiring in Q1 and likely in Q2. Costs of operations are rising thanks to inflation like utilities. These are things many investors do not consider. But every expense matters.</p><p>The company lost $39 million in the quarter operationally, but adjusted income from operations was $117 million. The company is still free cash flow positive. Adjusted free cash flow was $30 million for the quarter. That said, the company was profitable at a $0.02 adjusted EPS bottom line figure. We are concerned that if margins come in even lighter than expected, the company will lose on EPS. Frankly, we expect $0.02-$0.03 in EPS on 20% margins, with revenue of $475-$480 million. It is difficult to pinpoint however, as revenue recognition from contracts is never straightforward.</p><p>While war is a positive catalyst in many regards, the threat of a recession could be a catalyst in either direction. On one hand, companies will want to save money. If they get a big return on investment in Palantir&#39;s software, they may up their spend here collectively. Alternatively, inflation is putting a lot of pressure on consumers, and while Palantir&#39;s technology should help businesses operate more efficiently, and therefore more profitably, we could see reduced spending on services like this. If tax rolls are impacted, government spending could also go either way.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>We think the Q2 results are going to move Palantir stock heavily. We love that the company operates with no debt and has nice positive free cash flow. Big data, analytics, and algorithmic decision making to improve operations can benefit both businesses and governments alike.</p><p>War seems to be a real catalyst, while recession could be either a negative or positive catalyst. The customer growth is impressive as is the revenue growth on the commercial side, but there remains a strong opportunity to start expanding revenue growth on the government side. We are closely watching margins in Q2, as they could be a driver for stock movement.</p><p>While the stock remains expensive on most valuation approaches, we also want to see a reduction in stock based compensation to limit dilution. Most importantly, understanding how the current economic climate is impact the business will be paramount.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Prepare For War</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Prepare For War\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 11:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524472-palantir-prepare-for-war><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a strong positive.There are many global risks that could spike demand from governments.Palantir will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524472-palantir-prepare-for-war\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524472-palantir-prepare-for-war","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165364438","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's Q1 earnings left something to be desired, though commercial expansion has been a strong positive.There are many global risks that could spike demand from governments.Palantir will report Q2 earnings in a few weeks, and our expectations have grown a bit more conservative, though the bottom looks in.We anticipate a lot of debate on the results and bulls vs. bears prepare to battle.Understanding how the current economic climate is impacting the business will be paramount.Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a battleground stock. Over the last year returns (rather losses) have been absolutely brutal. Frankly, it has been a total disaster for longs, and shorts have succeeded. About a month ago, we hypothesized that the bottom was in. So far, we think that the bottom was recognized. The coming earnings (scheduled for August 8) will undoubtedly be a catalyst to send the stock moving in either direction on massive volumes.To be clear, we are expecting a major move. Investors should prepare for a bull/bear war, and traders should be able to leverage the volatility in the short-term for some easy swing trade gains. That said, we still view Palantir as a long-term investment, and so long as management does not dilute shareholders into oblivion, we believe the stock will provide returns from the single-digit levels. We understand that there are still a lot of retail \"bag-holders\" out there who piled into the stock in the high teens or 20's.The stock has more than made a round trip from its direct public offering price. We had been very bullish even in the 20s on the prospects for the company and the stock. Of course, the bear market of 2022 has had an iron grip on investors, and frankly just about every no-earnings or low-earnings tech stock has been obliterated from highs. It is not uncommon to see some of these down 60-70, even 80%. But the stock has emerged from the depths, and is quietly up 50% off lows.Still, most investors are underwater. Traders have made money long and short. While we are traders week to week, we are also very long-term investors. And we hate to see investors lose money, and we know it can be painful. The question is, what can we expect going forward? The stock will be held back until it can reliably grow and slow down dilution. Further, in this column we look back to performance, and discuss the Q2 view that was provided by management. We also believe that the reported results may come in ahead of expectations on some areas (such as new customers and backlog), but below expectation in other areas, such as earnings per share.The biggest short-term issues holding back sharesThe stock has been beaten and then relatively pinned down due to being a high revenue growth, innovative tech stock. Palantir, and stocks of companies that are similar to it, are indeed often extremely expensive in the early stages of being public. They usually lose money and fight to grow sales, then eventually work toward breakeven, positive cash flow, and eventually, EPS positive. The thing is that you really cannot value these stock on an earnings basis because there are no or very little earnings. So, valuation woes are an issue. Even in the high single-digits the stock is expensive on most valuation measures. Prepare to hear that in the coming war between bulls and bears. It is coming. Overvalued vs. growth at a somewhat reasonable price. That will be one of the debates you see in the comment sections of articles discussing earnings.The second issue, which has been discussed before, still remains a huge issue. Palantir has a massive dilution problem, which means consistent positive EPS gets kicked further down the road. We continue to think Palantir has a lot of potential, but this market is beyond unforgiving to those companies that do not make money or have sky high valuations. So by issuing stock based compensation, EPS gets lower and lower even if net income is positive or grows. For years, Palantir may lose money or breakeven. Of course, the theory goes that companies like this will lose money as they spend to attract customers and build their moat. They invest heavily in their growth while seeing revenues increase dramatically. And as we know, Palantir is seeing revenues grow tremendously. Stock based compensation, many would argue, is an investment to attract, acquire, and retain top talent in the tech field. There is a lot of merit to this argument. But in the first quarter of 2022, stock based compensation was still $149 million.Palantir Q1 presentationSo, this makes increasing EPS all the more difficult. This is another area bears have ammunition in the war against bulls. It has merits. The larger subsequent risk could be that Palantir's growth fades some or new competitors could emerge, and income generation stalls. The added dilution could continue so long that positive EPS becomes out of reach without future buybacks. It is an issue, even though management acknowledged on the Q1 call that this is a problem.Operational strengths and weaknesses: perceived or actual war is potentially profitableYou have all heard of the military industrial complex. Palantir has a role in it as governments pay a lot of money for defense (or offense). As we move into the 21st century data is becoming its own weapon. Knowledge is power. Decision making through algorithmic calculation is a gamechanger. Many governments (and businesses) believe the investment in data analytics to power decision-making is worth every cent. In Palantir's10-Q, it indicates it does not do business with those who seek to do harm to the U.S. or go against western democracy, but the many nations that are democratic need the data analysis. We think that government growth is a big future source of growth. For now, commercial growth has been the main driver.Palantir's commercial segment strongIn the first quarter,performance was strong on the top line and ahead of consensus estimates. That is great. Again, this is mostly a revenue growth company that is close to breaking even consistently, with some losing and some winning quarters. Total revenue grew 31% year-over-year to $446 million, beating estimates by almost $3 million. However, its profitability was lower than expected by $0.02. Now, that said, Palantir has both government and commercial segments. The commercial revenue stream continues to grow rapidly, while government contracts have grown more moderately.Palantir Q1 presentationThe company added 37 customers on the commercial side. They also have expanded commercial revenue growth significantly, with commercial revenue rising 54% in Q1. We think we see some normalization in Q2, with 30-40% revenue growth. But war is good for business. And not just for government contracts. Businesses want to know how it may impact them too. Global peace is a hidden headwind to the company in our opinion.Government segment growing, but slowerPalantir has expanded its sales team and they have been working to secure new orders. However, the Government revenues have slowed their growth somewhat, to just 16% from last year, 3 new customers on the government side. Revenue growth is trending in the wrong direction, for now.Palantir Q1 presentationWhile revenue per customer is up, the revenue growth has clearly decelerated. We do believe that the government segment will see increased demand as global risks increase. We are closely watching for progress on this front when Q2 is reported. We do know of a few recent contracts, including the Army's Titan program,as well as the U.S. Space Systems.Palantir is slightly profitable, for nowMake no mistake, Palantir is seeing very positive momentum in its margins, which is important in a software company. Adjusted gross margin was 81%. Contribution margin was 57%. First quarter adjusted income from operations, excluding stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes was $117 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 26%, ahead of management's prior guidance of 23%. This is positive.However the Q2 expectations are not as bullish.Palantir Q1 presentationThe biggest concern right now is not valuation. It is not dilution. It is not the \"overall market.\" The largest issue is a slowdown in performance and the Q2 guidance suggests a slowdown. Management guided to a base case of $470 million in revenue. This was below consensus of $484 million. Now some new contracts may indeed help this revenue figure. However, in the release management noted that \"there is a wide range of potential upside [for this] guidance.\" Palantir continues to see 30% annual revenue growth through 2025. But where our concerns are here is a lower guide on margins to just 20%. Labor is becoming more expensive. The company had been hiring in Q1 and likely in Q2. Costs of operations are rising thanks to inflation like utilities. These are things many investors do not consider. But every expense matters.The company lost $39 million in the quarter operationally, but adjusted income from operations was $117 million. The company is still free cash flow positive. Adjusted free cash flow was $30 million for the quarter. That said, the company was profitable at a $0.02 adjusted EPS bottom line figure. We are concerned that if margins come in even lighter than expected, the company will lose on EPS. Frankly, we expect $0.02-$0.03 in EPS on 20% margins, with revenue of $475-$480 million. It is difficult to pinpoint however, as revenue recognition from contracts is never straightforward.While war is a positive catalyst in many regards, the threat of a recession could be a catalyst in either direction. On one hand, companies will want to save money. If they get a big return on investment in Palantir's software, they may up their spend here collectively. Alternatively, inflation is putting a lot of pressure on consumers, and while Palantir's technology should help businesses operate more efficiently, and therefore more profitably, we could see reduced spending on services like this. If tax rolls are impacted, government spending could also go either way.Final thoughtsWe think the Q2 results are going to move Palantir stock heavily. We love that the company operates with no debt and has nice positive free cash flow. Big data, analytics, and algorithmic decision making to improve operations can benefit both businesses and governments alike.War seems to be a real catalyst, while recession could be either a negative or positive catalyst. The customer growth is impressive as is the revenue growth on the commercial side, but there remains a strong opportunity to start expanding revenue growth on the government side. We are closely watching margins in Q2, as they could be a driver for stock movement.While the stock remains expensive on most valuation approaches, we also want to see a reduction in stock based compensation to limit dilution. Most importantly, understanding how the current economic climate is impact the business will be paramount.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078103354,"gmtCreate":1657647286078,"gmtModify":1676536038728,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579773534390380","authorIdStr":"3579773534390380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>26","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>26","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$26","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078103354","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049087381,"gmtCreate":1655722602843,"gmtModify":1676535692614,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579773534390380","authorIdStr":"3579773534390380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049087381","repostId":"1114728454","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114728454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655721647,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114728454?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-20 18:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CICC Sees 30% Upside for NIO, Bullish on Growth Momentum for NT 2.0 Platform Models","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114728454","media":"CnEVPost","summary":"CICC says NIO is a leader in the premium smart electric vehicle segment, and that its NT 2.0 platfor","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>CICC says NIO is a leader in the premium smart electric vehicle segment, and that its NT 2.0 platform models will bring new growth momentum.</li></ul><p>CICC covered NIO (NYSE: NIO, HKG: 9866, SGX: NIO) early on in its US-listed shares and at one point had a price target as high as $85, although that has been revised downward over the past year.</p><p>Fast forward to today, NIO has been listed in Hong Kong for more than 3 months, and the top Chinese investment bank has initiated their coverage of the electric vehicle (EV) maker&#39;s H-shares, saying the company is a leader in the premium smart EV space with new growth momentum from its NT 2.0 platform models.</p><p>CICC gave NIO shares traded in Hong Kong a target price of HK$196 in a research note on Friday, implying a 26.2 upside from the company&#39;s closing price of HK$155.3 on Thursday. The price target corresponds to an EV/Revenue multiple of 4.0 times in 2022.</p><p>The investment bank also raised its price target on NIO&#39;s US-traded shares by 8.7 percent to $25, implying an upside of 30.3 percent, according to their research note.</p><p>CICC maintained their Outperform rating on NIO&#39;s US-traded shares and gave their initial Outperform rating on NIO&#39;s H-shares, saying that NIO&#39;s recent ES7 launch and the 2022 model year for its existing SUVs are expected to drive improved fundamentals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ddd7c8794d148190878632ff3289abf\" tg-width=\"1219\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image credit: NIO)</p><p>The team sees NIO as a leader in the premium smart EV segment, having a business model with premium services, which include its battery swap service, user community, and NIO Life, which all help reinforce its premium image.</p><p>&#34;We believe the company&#39;s business model is scarce, with front-loaded service system investments and charging and battery swap networks acting as a moat,&#34; CICC said.</p><p>NIO&#39;s product matrix continues to broaden, with four SUVs -- the ES8, ES6, EC6, and ES7 -- and two sedans - the ET7 and ET5, the team noted.</p><p>The EV maker is competitive in the high-end pure EV market and plans to enter the mass market in 2024 with a new sub-brand, the team said.</p><p>In the short term, CICC believes NIO&#39;s NT 2.0 platform-based models are expected to drive a gradual climb in sales in 2022.</p><p>In the medium to long term, its mass production of models for the mass market is expected to allow NIO to achieve scale effects in the underlying technology development and service systems including charging and battery swap, according to CICC.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Sees 30% Upside for NIO, Bullish on Growth Momentum for NT 2.0 Platform Models</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Sees 30% Upside for NIO, Bullish on Growth Momentum for NT 2.0 Platform Models\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-20 18:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cnevpost.com/2022/06/20/cicc-sees-30-upside-for-nio-bullish-on-growth-momentum-for-nt-2-0-platform-models/><strong>CnEVPost</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CICC says NIO is a leader in the premium smart electric vehicle segment, and that its NT 2.0 platform models will bring new growth momentum.CICC covered NIO (NYSE: NIO, HKG: 9866, SGX: NIO) early on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cnevpost.com/2022/06/20/cicc-sees-30-upside-for-nio-bullish-on-growth-momentum-for-nt-2-0-platform-models/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://cnevpost.com/2022/06/20/cicc-sees-30-upside-for-nio-bullish-on-growth-momentum-for-nt-2-0-platform-models/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114728454","content_text":"CICC says NIO is a leader in the premium smart electric vehicle segment, and that its NT 2.0 platform models will bring new growth momentum.CICC covered NIO (NYSE: NIO, HKG: 9866, SGX: NIO) early on in its US-listed shares and at one point had a price target as high as $85, although that has been revised downward over the past year.Fast forward to today, NIO has been listed in Hong Kong for more than 3 months, and the top Chinese investment bank has initiated their coverage of the electric vehicle (EV) maker's H-shares, saying the company is a leader in the premium smart EV space with new growth momentum from its NT 2.0 platform models.CICC gave NIO shares traded in Hong Kong a target price of HK$196 in a research note on Friday, implying a 26.2 upside from the company's closing price of HK$155.3 on Thursday. The price target corresponds to an EV/Revenue multiple of 4.0 times in 2022.The investment bank also raised its price target on NIO's US-traded shares by 8.7 percent to $25, implying an upside of 30.3 percent, according to their research note.CICC maintained their Outperform rating on NIO's US-traded shares and gave their initial Outperform rating on NIO's H-shares, saying that NIO's recent ES7 launch and the 2022 model year for its existing SUVs are expected to drive improved fundamentals.(Image credit: NIO)The team sees NIO as a leader in the premium smart EV segment, having a business model with premium services, which include its battery swap service, user community, and NIO Life, which all help reinforce its premium image.\"We believe the company's business model is scarce, with front-loaded service system investments and charging and battery swap networks acting as a moat,\" CICC said.NIO's product matrix continues to broaden, with four SUVs -- the ES8, ES6, EC6, and ES7 -- and two sedans - the ET7 and ET5, the team noted.The EV maker is competitive in the high-end pure EV market and plans to enter the mass market in 2024 with a new sub-brand, the team said.In the short term, CICC believes NIO's NT 2.0 platform-based models are expected to drive a gradual climb in sales in 2022.In the medium to long term, its mass production of models for the mass market is expected to allow NIO to achieve scale effects in the underlying technology development and service systems including charging and battery swap, according to CICC.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057151777,"gmtCreate":1655481637100,"gmtModify":1676535648525,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579773534390380","authorIdStr":"3579773534390380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sad","listText":"Sad","text":"Sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057151777","repostId":"1111859639","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111859639","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655475005,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111859639?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-17 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Trimmed Its Gains Within 4% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111859639","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Alibaba trimmed its gains within 4% in morning trading.It is reported that China's central bank has ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Alibaba trimmed its gains within 4% in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f10a0caa305c4a7c80304b582d2164\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is reported that China&#39;s central bank has accepted Ant Group&#39;s application to set up a financial holding company. However, China&#39;s central bank has not accepted the application of Ant Group to establish a financial holding company.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Trimmed Its Gains Within 4% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Trimmed Its Gains Within 4% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-17 22:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Alibaba trimmed its gains within 4% in morning trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f10a0caa305c4a7c80304b582d2164\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>It is reported that China&#39;s central bank has accepted Ant Group&#39;s application to set up a financial holding company. However, China&#39;s central bank has not accepted the application of Ant Group to establish a financial holding company.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111859639","content_text":"Alibaba trimmed its gains within 4% in morning trading.It is reported that China's central bank has accepted Ant Group's application to set up a financial holding company. However, China's central bank has not accepted the application of Ant Group to establish a financial holding company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057153656,"gmtCreate":1655481466575,"gmtModify":1676535648486,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579773534390380","authorIdStr":"3579773534390380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat&nbsp;","listText":"Huat&nbsp;","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057153656","repostId":"2244115308","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2244115308","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655467903,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2244115308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-17 20:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Amazon vs. Shopify","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2244115308","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Neither of these e-commerce giants has gotten any love from the stock market recently.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>E-commerce stocks were all the rage during the early stages of the pandemic. Now that the pandemic has eased and the rapid growth of online shopping has subsided, some investors are ditching these stocks. What those hesitant investors haven&#39;t accounted for is that the shopping habits people acquired over the past few years have become just that -- habits. Smart investors should expect that the gains made by e-commerce businesses over the past few years will mostly persist.</p><p>That&#39;s good news for e-commerce giants <b>Amazon</b> and <b>Shopify</b>. Amazon needs no introduction as it&#39;s the world&#39;s largest e-commerce retailer. Fewer people may know Shopify, but its software platform powers more than 1 million e-commerce stores around the world. Both stocks have taken a hit this past year based on this investor hesitancy: Amazon is down about 44.5% from its all-time high, while Shopify is down about 82%. If you go back to before the pandemic was declared, the news is just as bad. Amazon stock is up a mere 10% since March 1, 2020, and Shopify stock is down 32%. The market now values these companies at levels comparable to or lower than it did before a colossal growth catalyst massively grew their customer bases.</p><p>Is this logical? Or is the market giving investors a couple of fantastic buying opportunities?</p><h2>Pandemic business gains</h2><p>To see how much business each gained during the pandemic, let&#39;s compare first-quarter numbers from 2020 and 2022. Both companies grew impressively over those two years, with the younger Shopify generating the most growth.</p><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><th>Company</th><th>Q1 2020 Sales or GMV</th><th>Q1 2022 Sales or GMV</th><th>Growth</th></tr><tr><td>Amazon</td><td>$258.7 billion</td><td>$410.6 billion</td><td>59%</td></tr><tr><td>Shopify</td><td>$17.4 billion</td><td>$43.2 billion</td><td>148%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: Amazon and Shopify. Amazon&#39;s key statistic is sales, as it recognizes revenue when it sells a product. Shopify&#39;s key statistic is gross merchandise volume (GMV), as it only processes sales.</p><p>With Amazon, many customers who had used the service for years began using it to purchase items they hadn&#39;t necessarily bought online before the pandemic. Some consumers returned to their old shopping patterns now that social distancing efforts have waned, but Amazon&#39;s massive sales growth suggests many are sticking with their new habits.</p><p>Shopify provides its business clients with the websites, services, and infrastructure necessary to run e-commerce stores. It generates revenue by processing the business&#39;s transactions and charging monthly fees for its various services. Shopify has grown its business by continuing to service all of the new businesses that opened online stores through Shopify during the pandemic.</p><p>I would give Shopify the edge in its recent business gains, as Amazon&#39;s North American sales only rose 8% year over year in Q1 2022, while its international sales fell 6%. While Shopify&#39;s gross merchandise volume rose 16% and its overall revenue grew 22%. Shopify is still seeing decent growth, while Amazon&#39;s has slowed (partly as a reflection of tough year-over-year comparisons).</p><p><i>Winner: Shopify</i></p><h2>Ancillary businesses</h2><p>Both companies&#39; operations are broader than just e-commerce. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the market leader in its cloud computing niche, is growing rapidly, and is highly profitable. In Q1, its sales were up 37% year over year, and it ran at a 35% operating margin. If AWS was a stand-alone business, it might be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the best stocks in the entire market to own.</p><p>Shopify is expanding its operations to meet more needs that customers appear to want, like its growing fulfillment network which will help its (often small-scale) clients offer the same services that big retailers do, like two-day shipping and easy returns. This segment is vital for Shopify as it expands its e-commerce offerings. Still, because its focus is nearly all retail, its dependence on retail could become an issue if the U.S. enters a recession.</p><p><i>Winner: Amazon</i></p><h2>Head-to-head competition</h2><p>Before 2015, the Amazon Webstore unit provided services to small businesses in a similar fashion to Shopify. However, Amazon shut down the division because it could not successfully compete with Shopify.</p><p>Amazon seems to be headed back into direct competition with Shopify with its new Buy with Prime feature. This add-on allows third-party sellers to add a &#34;Buy with Prime&#34; button to their e-commerce sites. Customers who select it can checkout with their Prime accounts, and Amazon will fulfill their orders with the promise of two-day delivery.</p><p>Amazon&#39;s fulfillment network is more built out than Shopify&#39;s, so this should be a considerable concern for Shopify, as some of its customers may choose to launch new websites using Amazon&#39;s new feature. However, Shopify CEO and co-founder Tobi Lütke said during the Q1 conference call that he was thrilled with the introduction of Buy with Prime and would work to integrate it into Shopify&#39;s platform.</p><p>While I don&#39;t know how this will shake out, it seems strange to me that a product that could take business away from Shopify is something its CEO would be excited about. However, Lütke has a long and successful track record, so while I&#39;m skeptical, I&#39;m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.</p><p><i>Winner: Tie</i></p><h2>Which stock is the better buy?</h2><p>In terms of the three categories above, the competition between these two companies ends in a tie. But if I were to choose just one of their stocks to buy now, I&#39;d pick Shopify.</p><p>Amazon has likely saturated the e-commerce market and will have difficulty growing faster than the pace of e-commerce as a whole. Shopify still has a long way to go to fulfill its mission of equipping small- and medium-sized businesses with the tools they need to sell directly to consumers.</p><p>Additionally, because Shopify receives a monthly fee from each client, it makes no sense that its stock trades below its pre-pandemic price. Both stocks represent great values at their current prices, but Shopify gets the nod from me.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Amazon vs. Shopify</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Amazon vs. Shopify\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-17 20:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/better-buy-amazon-vs-shopify/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>E-commerce stocks were all the rage during the early stages of the pandemic. Now that the pandemic has eased and the rapid growth of online shopping has subsided, some investors are ditching these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/better-buy-amazon-vs-shopify/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/better-buy-amazon-vs-shopify/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2244115308","content_text":"E-commerce stocks were all the rage during the early stages of the pandemic. Now that the pandemic has eased and the rapid growth of online shopping has subsided, some investors are ditching these stocks. What those hesitant investors haven't accounted for is that the shopping habits people acquired over the past few years have become just that -- habits. Smart investors should expect that the gains made by e-commerce businesses over the past few years will mostly persist.That's good news for e-commerce giants Amazon and Shopify. Amazon needs no introduction as it's the world's largest e-commerce retailer. Fewer people may know Shopify, but its software platform powers more than 1 million e-commerce stores around the world. Both stocks have taken a hit this past year based on this investor hesitancy: Amazon is down about 44.5% from its all-time high, while Shopify is down about 82%. If you go back to before the pandemic was declared, the news is just as bad. Amazon stock is up a mere 10% since March 1, 2020, and Shopify stock is down 32%. The market now values these companies at levels comparable to or lower than it did before a colossal growth catalyst massively grew their customer bases.Is this logical? Or is the market giving investors a couple of fantastic buying opportunities?Pandemic business gainsTo see how much business each gained during the pandemic, let's compare first-quarter numbers from 2020 and 2022. Both companies grew impressively over those two years, with the younger Shopify generating the most growth.CompanyQ1 2020 Sales or GMVQ1 2022 Sales or GMVGrowthAmazon$258.7 billion$410.6 billion59%Shopify$17.4 billion$43.2 billion148%Source: Amazon and Shopify. Amazon's key statistic is sales, as it recognizes revenue when it sells a product. Shopify's key statistic is gross merchandise volume (GMV), as it only processes sales.With Amazon, many customers who had used the service for years began using it to purchase items they hadn't necessarily bought online before the pandemic. Some consumers returned to their old shopping patterns now that social distancing efforts have waned, but Amazon's massive sales growth suggests many are sticking with their new habits.Shopify provides its business clients with the websites, services, and infrastructure necessary to run e-commerce stores. It generates revenue by processing the business's transactions and charging monthly fees for its various services. Shopify has grown its business by continuing to service all of the new businesses that opened online stores through Shopify during the pandemic.I would give Shopify the edge in its recent business gains, as Amazon's North American sales only rose 8% year over year in Q1 2022, while its international sales fell 6%. While Shopify's gross merchandise volume rose 16% and its overall revenue grew 22%. Shopify is still seeing decent growth, while Amazon's has slowed (partly as a reflection of tough year-over-year comparisons).Winner: ShopifyAncillary businessesBoth companies' operations are broader than just e-commerce. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the market leader in its cloud computing niche, is growing rapidly, and is highly profitable. In Q1, its sales were up 37% year over year, and it ran at a 35% operating margin. If AWS was a stand-alone business, it might be one of the best stocks in the entire market to own.Shopify is expanding its operations to meet more needs that customers appear to want, like its growing fulfillment network which will help its (often small-scale) clients offer the same services that big retailers do, like two-day shipping and easy returns. This segment is vital for Shopify as it expands its e-commerce offerings. Still, because its focus is nearly all retail, its dependence on retail could become an issue if the U.S. enters a recession.Winner: AmazonHead-to-head competitionBefore 2015, the Amazon Webstore unit provided services to small businesses in a similar fashion to Shopify. However, Amazon shut down the division because it could not successfully compete with Shopify.Amazon seems to be headed back into direct competition with Shopify with its new Buy with Prime feature. This add-on allows third-party sellers to add a \"Buy with Prime\" button to their e-commerce sites. Customers who select it can checkout with their Prime accounts, and Amazon will fulfill their orders with the promise of two-day delivery.Amazon's fulfillment network is more built out than Shopify's, so this should be a considerable concern for Shopify, as some of its customers may choose to launch new websites using Amazon's new feature. However, Shopify CEO and co-founder Tobi Lütke said during the Q1 conference call that he was thrilled with the introduction of Buy with Prime and would work to integrate it into Shopify's platform.While I don't know how this will shake out, it seems strange to me that a product that could take business away from Shopify is something its CEO would be excited about. However, Lütke has a long and successful track record, so while I'm skeptical, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.Winner: TieWhich stock is the better buy?In terms of the three categories above, the competition between these two companies ends in a tie. But if I were to choose just one of their stocks to buy now, I'd pick Shopify.Amazon has likely saturated the e-commerce market and will have difficulty growing faster than the pace of e-commerce as a whole. Shopify still has a long way to go to fulfill its mission of equipping small- and medium-sized businesses with the tools they need to sell directly to consumers.Additionally, because Shopify receives a monthly fee from each client, it makes no sense that its stock trades below its pre-pandemic price. Both stocks represent great values at their current prices, but Shopify gets the nod from me.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057159829,"gmtCreate":1655481369462,"gmtModify":1676535648502,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579773534390380","authorIdStr":"3579773534390380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057159829","repostId":"1102691867","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102691867","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655478013,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102691867?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-17 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Much Ado About Nothing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102691867","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn this article, we'll see how Palantir stands to be affected by rising interest rates from a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>In this article, we&#39;ll see how Palantir stands to be affected by rising interest rates from a financial standpoint.</li><li>Although the macroeconomic outlook is gloomy, Palantir&#39;s revenue growth may continue on in the foreseeable future at least.</li><li>The stock is trading at attractive valuations when compared to 90 other software infrastructure stocks.</li></ul><p>A great deal of emphasis is being laid on how rising interest rates and the slowing down economy are going to hurt growth stocks, especially the unprofitable ones, in the quarters ahead. While this is a logical assessment for growth stocks in general, it’s resulted in an aggravated selloff in Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) in recent weeks even though it’s not overly susceptible to these risk factors. In this article, I’ll attempt to explain why this bear case for Palantir is exaggerated and why the stock makes for a good buying opportunity at current levels. Let’s take a closer look to gain a better understanding of it all.</p><p><b>The Interest Rate Risk</b></p><p>There’s no denying that rising interest rates will result in increased interest payments for individuals and companies alike. Firms that are profitable and/or cash flow positive would be positioned well to absorb these added expenses. However, companies that are loss-making and/or haven’t figured out their path to profitability, may have to dilute their shareholders and maybe even raise debt to meet their interest payments.</p><p>A broad swath of technology stocks falls into the latter category, faced with uncertain prospects and some with even the bankruptcy risk, so a sharp selloff in their shares is understandable and justified. However, Palantir doesn’t quite fit the latter criteria and its operating activities should more or less remain unfazed in a rising interest rate environment. Notice I used the term “operating activities” instead of talking about the company overall.</p><p>Fact of the matter is that Palantir is debt-free. Although it has a revolving credit line, it was undrawn at the end of the last quarter. This essentially means that the company won’t be negatively affected by rising interest rates, at least not directly. On the contrary, Palantir’s interest income grew by $171,000 last quarter in lieu of rising interest rates. This is a miniscule figure when compared to its top line, but it corroborates our assessment that rising interest rates won’t weigh down on the company’s operating results.</p><p>From Palantir’slast 10-Q filing:</p><blockquote>As of March 31, 2022, no borrowings were outstanding under our revolving credit facility…Interest income increased by $0.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 primarily due to an increase in U.S. interest rates on interest earned from our cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash.</blockquote><p>From Palantir&#39;s lastearnings call:</p><blockquote>At the end of Q1, we had a very strong war chest, $2.3 billion in cash and no debt.</blockquote><p>Now I’m not trying to portray that Palantir is immune from interest rate hikes. The company has invested in some arguably speculative stocks that have sold off in recent weeks and are likely to sell further with more rate hikes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c3f46ab34d65de2467e56cb23b9509\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir&#39;s 10Q filing</p><p>But the silver lining here is that these losses on marketable securities will be non-recurring in nature and Palantir’s operating results, at least, won’t be impaired by rising interest rates.</p><p><b>Sustainability Concerns</b></p><p>The next point of contention is that Palantir isn’t profitable yet and that it will be forced to raise capital in order to sustain its operations. This, inevitably, will create an interest expense burden on the company. But that’s not necessarily the case.</p><p>It’s worth noting that Palantir is free cash flow positive and that it’s grown at a significant pace over the last one year alone. Let’s look at the table below to put things in perspective. Per our database at Business Quant, Palantir’s free cash flow as a percentage of revenue is higher than 56% of other stocks belonging to the software infrastructure industry. Also, Palantir’s free cash flow growth is higher than 81% of the other companies present in our study group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34145ecaa3bb3c9e801a9e5d3d6f3b4c\" tg-width=\"486\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>This suggests that Palantir has ample cash flow cushioning, and its free cash flow growth is also high enough, to alleviate any sustainability-related concerns in a recessionary environment. This isn’t a one-off event. Palantir has tactfully undertaken several initiatives over the last year – such as adopting flexible payment plans, expanding sales team, focusing on securing commercial clients, and offering free trials – to boost customer growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005b7819ec392c3a38b89e535ebf7338\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>These customer additions have surely boosted Palantir’s revenue growth in recent quarters. However, I contend that the new customers added in the last year would be in the process of integrating Palantir’s platforms in their workflows, training their personnel around them, and preparing to switch from their legacy analytical tools. They’re likely to increase spending on Palantir’s platforms only once they pass this critical stage and are ready for full-fledged deployments. So, I anticipate Palantir’s revenue growth to continue on in subsequent quarters as well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e5751609b54200751d8073d840330d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><b>Attractive Valuations</b></p><p>Next, Palantir is often criticized for its bloated valuation. The stock is trading at over 10 times its trailing twelve-month sales and investors are wondering if the price premium is justified.</p><p>The chart below should put things in perspective. The Y-axis plots the free cash flow growth for 90 US-listed stocks belonging to the software infrastructure industry. Note how Palantir is vertically positioned higher on the plot, indicating that the company’s free cash flow growth is higher than a broad swath of its peers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbff90ad6d0504ca56ea8e33dbee6f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Now let’s shift attention to the X-axis, which plots the price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for the same set of companies. Note how Palantir is horizontally positioned towards the right, confirming that its shares are, in fact, trading at a premium compared to its peers.</p><p>The collective takeaway from both the axes here is that Palantir’s shares are trading at relatively higher trading multiples but that’s because of its higher-than-average pace of growth. This, in essence, justifies Palantir’s price premium. There are just 10 other stocks in the industry that are growing faster than Palantir but trading at lower P/S multiples. So, I find Palantir&#39;s shares to be attractively valued at current levels, when factoring in its growth momentum.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Much Ado About Nothing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Much Ado About Nothing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-17 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518676-palantir-pltr-stock-much-ado-about-nothing><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn this article, we'll see how Palantir stands to be affected by rising interest rates from a financial standpoint.Although the macroeconomic outlook is gloomy, Palantir's revenue growth may ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518676-palantir-pltr-stock-much-ado-about-nothing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518676-palantir-pltr-stock-much-ado-about-nothing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102691867","content_text":"SummaryIn this article, we'll see how Palantir stands to be affected by rising interest rates from a financial standpoint.Although the macroeconomic outlook is gloomy, Palantir's revenue growth may continue on in the foreseeable future at least.The stock is trading at attractive valuations when compared to 90 other software infrastructure stocks.A great deal of emphasis is being laid on how rising interest rates and the slowing down economy are going to hurt growth stocks, especially the unprofitable ones, in the quarters ahead. While this is a logical assessment for growth stocks in general, it’s resulted in an aggravated selloff in Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) in recent weeks even though it’s not overly susceptible to these risk factors. In this article, I’ll attempt to explain why this bear case for Palantir is exaggerated and why the stock makes for a good buying opportunity at current levels. Let’s take a closer look to gain a better understanding of it all.The Interest Rate RiskThere’s no denying that rising interest rates will result in increased interest payments for individuals and companies alike. Firms that are profitable and/or cash flow positive would be positioned well to absorb these added expenses. However, companies that are loss-making and/or haven’t figured out their path to profitability, may have to dilute their shareholders and maybe even raise debt to meet their interest payments.A broad swath of technology stocks falls into the latter category, faced with uncertain prospects and some with even the bankruptcy risk, so a sharp selloff in their shares is understandable and justified. However, Palantir doesn’t quite fit the latter criteria and its operating activities should more or less remain unfazed in a rising interest rate environment. Notice I used the term “operating activities” instead of talking about the company overall.Fact of the matter is that Palantir is debt-free. Although it has a revolving credit line, it was undrawn at the end of the last quarter. This essentially means that the company won’t be negatively affected by rising interest rates, at least not directly. On the contrary, Palantir’s interest income grew by $171,000 last quarter in lieu of rising interest rates. This is a miniscule figure when compared to its top line, but it corroborates our assessment that rising interest rates won’t weigh down on the company’s operating results.From Palantir’slast 10-Q filing:As of March 31, 2022, no borrowings were outstanding under our revolving credit facility…Interest income increased by $0.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 primarily due to an increase in U.S. interest rates on interest earned from our cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash.From Palantir's lastearnings call:At the end of Q1, we had a very strong war chest, $2.3 billion in cash and no debt.Now I’m not trying to portray that Palantir is immune from interest rate hikes. The company has invested in some arguably speculative stocks that have sold off in recent weeks and are likely to sell further with more rate hikes.Palantir's 10Q filingBut the silver lining here is that these losses on marketable securities will be non-recurring in nature and Palantir’s operating results, at least, won’t be impaired by rising interest rates.Sustainability ConcernsThe next point of contention is that Palantir isn’t profitable yet and that it will be forced to raise capital in order to sustain its operations. This, inevitably, will create an interest expense burden on the company. But that’s not necessarily the case.It’s worth noting that Palantir is free cash flow positive and that it’s grown at a significant pace over the last one year alone. Let’s look at the table below to put things in perspective. Per our database at Business Quant, Palantir’s free cash flow as a percentage of revenue is higher than 56% of other stocks belonging to the software infrastructure industry. Also, Palantir’s free cash flow growth is higher than 81% of the other companies present in our study group.BusinessQuant.comThis suggests that Palantir has ample cash flow cushioning, and its free cash flow growth is also high enough, to alleviate any sustainability-related concerns in a recessionary environment. This isn’t a one-off event. Palantir has tactfully undertaken several initiatives over the last year – such as adopting flexible payment plans, expanding sales team, focusing on securing commercial clients, and offering free trials – to boost customer growth.BusinessQuant.comThese customer additions have surely boosted Palantir’s revenue growth in recent quarters. However, I contend that the new customers added in the last year would be in the process of integrating Palantir’s platforms in their workflows, training their personnel around them, and preparing to switch from their legacy analytical tools. They’re likely to increase spending on Palantir’s platforms only once they pass this critical stage and are ready for full-fledged deployments. So, I anticipate Palantir’s revenue growth to continue on in subsequent quarters as well.BusinessQuant.comAttractive ValuationsNext, Palantir is often criticized for its bloated valuation. The stock is trading at over 10 times its trailing twelve-month sales and investors are wondering if the price premium is justified.The chart below should put things in perspective. The Y-axis plots the free cash flow growth for 90 US-listed stocks belonging to the software infrastructure industry. Note how Palantir is vertically positioned higher on the plot, indicating that the company’s free cash flow growth is higher than a broad swath of its peers.BusinessQuant.comNow let’s shift attention to the X-axis, which plots the price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for the same set of companies. Note how Palantir is horizontally positioned towards the right, confirming that its shares are, in fact, trading at a premium compared to its peers.The collective takeaway from both the axes here is that Palantir’s shares are trading at relatively higher trading multiples but that’s because of its higher-than-average pace of growth. This, in essence, justifies Palantir’s price premium. There are just 10 other stocks in the industry that are growing faster than Palantir but trading at lower P/S multiples. So, I find Palantir's shares to be attractively valued at current levels, when factoring in its growth momentum.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053437764,"gmtCreate":1654569047958,"gmtModify":1676535471038,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579773534390380","authorIdStr":"3579773534390380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yessss up","listText":"Yessss up","text":"Yessss up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053437764","repostId":"2241923094","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2241923094","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654568322,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2241923094?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-07 10:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: One Of The Best Buying Opportunity As Worst Is Likely Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2241923094","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"For a company like Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) with sentiment at all time lows, the co","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>For a company like Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) with sentiment at all time lows, the company&#39;s recent release 4Q22 results was a positive surprise for investors. I looked into the recent quarter and was pleasantly surprised that there were signs of improvement and that the worst is likely over for Alibaba.</p><h2>Investment thesis</h2><p>I have written two deep dive articles into Alibaba that you can read further to learn more about the business as well as the regulatory risks of the company. My investment thesis remains as I continue to see Alibaba as currently <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the better risk/reward opportunities out there due to the following factors:</p><p>1. China commerce: One of the most valuable assets Alibaba has is its huge consumer base of 1 billion users and spends $1,300 annually, which can bring about further monetization or help scale its other newer platforms.</p><p>2. International commerce: This business is a low hanging fruit for Alibaba as it has a replicable strategy and strong moat, as well as logistics capabilities to compete with international e-commerce brands in international markets.</p><p>3. Cloud: Alibaba will likely remain the leader in a fast growing cloud market in China and continue to look out for international markets to grow in. Furthermore, its in-house production of chips and development of OS could bring about further cost efficiencies and better products while reducing reliance on third party suppliers.</p><p>4. Investing for growth in the future: Alibaba is reinvesting its incremental profits into its strategic businesses which, in my view, is necessary to ensure Alibaba is able to compete and win competitors. Also, Alibaba is continuing its mergers and acquisitions strategy to acquire new businesses to capture future opportunities or bring value to existing businesses.</p><h2>Cloud computing achieves scale and positive adjusted EBITDA margins</h2><p>For the cloud computing segment, it reported revenues of Rmb19 billion in 4Q22, which representing 12% growth year on year. This was compared to the prior quarter&#39;s growth of 20% year-on-year and prior year&#39;s growth of 38% year-on-year. The slowdown is due to weakness in certain sectors, slowing economic activities, and the company&#39;s strategic focus on higher quality revenues.</p><p>In particular, the weakness came from the internet industries like online education and entertainment. According to management, the cloud computing revenue growth would have been 15% year-on-year if the revenues from its top customer in the internet industry, Bytedance were excluded. According to management, Bytedance apparently stopped using Alibaba&#39;s overseas cloud services for its international business due to requirements that are non-product related.</p><p>As a result of weakness in the internet sector, the revenue contribution from non-internet industries increased to 52% as several sectors like telecommunications, retailing and financials reported strong growth to offset the weakness in the internet industry.</p><p>On the margins front, the cloud computing segment posted positive 1% adjusted EBITDA margins in 4Q22, compared to -2% adjusted EBITDA margins one year ago. This was attributable to the gradual improvement in economies of scale for the business, as well as better loss control for Dingtalk. Management also expects that margins for the cloud computing business to continue to improve in FY2023 as top line growth continues. In my view, the margins profile of Alibaba&#39;s cloud computing segment is at a pivotal moment for the business as it transitions towards positive adjusted EBITDA margins with improving economies of scale.</p><p>I think that is is also encouraging to see that management continues to see the long term potential in the cloud industry and Alibaba&#39;s cloud segment despite the near term blip. Management believes that the cloud industry can grow 2 to 3 times in the long run to reach Rmb1 trillion in the next few years. This comes as the cloud plays a key role for the development of the economy and for digital transformation. With that, the focus for Alibaba on the cloud computing sector is crucial, and management believe that Alibaba needs to cater to the differing needs of different sectors to be able to leverage on this huge opportunity in the long run. In my view, the other positive is that this will continue to drive top line growth and with the cloud revenues of the entire company already exceeding Rmb100 billion in the last fiscal year, this translates to huge economies of scale and potential for cost reduction and efficiency improvement that will further drive upside to cloud computing margins in the near term.</p><h2>China Commerce</h2><p>Revenues from the China Commerce segment grew 7% year on year to RMB 136 billion. There was a low teens year-on-year decline in GMV in April and management sees that there are signs of improvement in May. The total FY2022 GMV in China Commerce grew by 2% year on year.</p><p>Alibaba continued to grow on the user front. China commerce Annual Active Consumers (AAC) reached 903million, up 21 million users from the previous quarter and up 89 million users from a year ago. Notably, of these increases, 70% are from less-developed areas. This is in line with Alibaba&#39;s push toward rural and less developed customers to grow its customer base.</p><p>Specifically, we are seeing growth in Taobao Deals and Taocaicai. Taobao Deals AACs grew to more than 300 million, adding 20 million users in the quarter while paid orders on Taobao Deals grew 35% year on year in the current quarter. In addition, Taocaicai, Alibaba&#39;s community market place catered to lower tier cities and rural areas continued to grow AACs to more than 90 million and more than 50% of these were first time fresh produce buyers on Alibaba. Also, Taocaicai GMV continued to expand in the last quarter due to improving average order values.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5116cae604fa82f39a0a9a4cc54255\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Alibaba recorded robust user growth compared to peers (QuestMobile; Goldman)</p><p>While there were low single-digit declines in Taobao and Small online physical goods GMV, the customer management revenues (CMR) remained stable year on year. This was due to some offset by positive growth in advertising revenues.</p><p>EBITDA declined RMB 7 billion to Rmb 32 billion, representing an EBITDA margin of 23%. This decline in EBITDA margins was due to the drag from Taocaicai and Taobao Deals as management invests in these relatively higher growths and newer businesses. In addition, Sun Art reported an RMB 1.4 billion loss, most of it due to an asset impairment provision.</p><p>Management remains committed to improving efficiency and narrowing losses for Taobao Deals. Furthermore, management has been more disciplined in investment pace for Taocaicai to reduce its impact on margins to the group. It has done so by choosing certain target cities where it aims to improve order density and thus focus on establishing regional warehouses and infrastructure in these cities. Thus, the focus will be more on high-quality growth for the Taocaicai business.</p><p>In addition, in my view, the combined losses from both Taobao Deals and Taocaicai has likely peaked in December 2021 and saw sequential declines in losses in the current quarter. I think we will continue to expect the combined losses to decline as management continued to focus on higher-quality growth for China&#39;s commerce segment.</p><h2>International Commerce</h2><p>Revenues from international commerce grew by 7% year on year as AACs grew by 4 million compared to the prior quarter, and 64 million when compared to the prior year. There was a growth of 32% and 48% year on year respectively for Lazada and Trendyol while AliExpress saw a decline in order volume. This was due to the changes in EU&#39;s VAT rules and supply chain/logistics disruptions due to Russia-Ukraine conflict, as highlighted by management. International commerce segment&#39;s adjusted EBITDA margin remained stable at -18% as the company continues to spend on marketing and promotions to increase user engagement and acquisition.</p><p>International commerce remains to be one of Alibaba&#39;s key growth drivers to tap on less mature e-commerce markets outside of China. While there could be near term competition from other e-commerce companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Shopee, which is owned by Sea Limited (SE), Alibaba&#39;s international commerce can still ride the wave of increasing e-commerce penetration in these markets and post higher long term average growth rates than in the mature China Commerce segment.</p><h3>Local Consumer Services</h3><p>As for the local consumer services segment, revenues grew to Rmb 10 billion, up 29% year on year. Ele.me, Alibaba&#39;s online food delivery platform, continued to show improvement in unit economics and is reaching near break-even due to improvements in the delivery cost per order as well as the company reducing spend on user acquisitions.</p><p>As Ele.me continues to scale, its unit economics improvement, as well as the cost reductions made by management will continue to contribute to bottom-line growth for the Group.</p><h2>Stringent cost control and improving regulatory environment</h2><p>Management continues to be committed to add value by assessing the areas of its business where there can be further improvement in efficiencies and to reduce costs to make the entire cost structure of the business more nimble and lean. Some of these control in costs includes stringent control over sales and marketing expenses. This, in my view, is positive for Alibaba as the near term may prove challenging with top-line slowing, and management&#39;s efforts to provide long term shareholder value through cost efficiencies will be appreciated by the market.</p><p>The regulatory landscape also seems to be improving, adding to the signs that the worst could be over for Alibaba. In the recent State Council meeting, the government is rolling out supportive measures, some of which are beneficial to Alibaba&#39;s business, including stimulating consumption and the commitment to the recovery of supply chains. Also, management commented that the government shared a clear message to the market to encourage the healthy development of platform economies and that management is fully compliant with all the regulatory requirements and continues to watch for any new development in policies on the anti-trust front. I think this shows that the government is sending a message that it will not clamp down too much on platform companies, but rather continues to see the benefits of the healthy development of platform companies for the economy.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>I have previously shared my financial model for Alibaba and derived a target price based on its sum of the parts valuation. I forecasted the financials and used a DCF model for most of its businesses except Cainiao, local services and its associates/investments since these businesses are mostly either private or have limited public information. I used rather conservative forecasts, in my view and also applied a holding company discount of 25%, with other assumptions listed in the table below. Based on the SOTP valuation, I have derived a target price of $164 for Alibaba, representing an upside potential of 76% from current levels.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dd22bdbd3f84c78b77c121135b860d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Alibaba target price based on SOTP (Author generated)</p><p>Based on relative valuation, Alibaba now trades at 12x and 9x 2023F and 2024F P/E respectively, while average earnings growth over the 2-year period is expected to be 15%, implying a PEG of 0.8x.</p><h2>Risks</h2><h3>Competition</h3><p>While Alibaba might be the largest player in China, there are risks that competition could threaten Alibaba&#39;s market share in both China and in overseas markets. In China, it has to compete against prominent rivals like JD.com (JD) and Pinduoduo (PDD) in a rather mature e-commerce market. As for its international commerce segment, they face competition from international players like Amazon and Shopee, as highlighted earlier. Competitive pressure from both local and international players could slow GMV and user growth for Alibaba compared to expectations.</p><h3>Regulatory and political risks</h3><p>Alibaba is one of the worst-hit companies hit by the regulatory crackdown. However, I am of the view that we have seen the worst of the regulatory crackdown and the government is signalling easing of regulatory pressures, which I think are necessary for the government to improve its economy amidst its zero-covid policy. As such, the worst is likely over for Alibaba as most of the regulatory pressures have eased and we could start seeing better times for the company.</p><h3>Execution in investments</h3><p>Alibaba management has renewed focus on investing in key strategic areas in its business as mentioned earlier. However, this will come down to execution as Alibaba seeks to gain share in these areas. If execution were to be weak, ideal results of the heavy investments may not materialize.</p><h3>Cloud risks</h3><p>There is risk that Alibaba&#39;s cloud revenue growth could slow down given that there is competition from Huawei, Tencent and China Telecom. If Alibaba is unable to maintain market leadership in cloud, this could affect economies of scale effects that it currently enjoys.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>I think this presents one of the best buying opportunities for Alibaba as the worst is likely over for the company. Looking beyond 2023F earnings, the business is expected to continue to grow in the 20% to 30% range and the current valuation simply just does not price in this long term potential. I think we could continue to see positive surprises for Alibaba in the next few quarters as it surpasses the very low expectations set by the market. My target price for Alibaba based on a SOTP valuation model is $164, implying 76% upside potential from current levels.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: One Of The Best Buying Opportunity As Worst Is Likely Over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: One Of The Best Buying Opportunity As Worst Is Likely Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-07 10:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516754-alibaba-one-of-the-best-buying-opportunity-as-worst-is-likely-over><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For a company like Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) with sentiment at all time lows, the company's recent release 4Q22 results was a positive surprise for investors. I looked into the recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516754-alibaba-one-of-the-best-buying-opportunity-as-worst-is-likely-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516754-alibaba-one-of-the-best-buying-opportunity-as-worst-is-likely-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2241923094","content_text":"For a company like Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) with sentiment at all time lows, the company's recent release 4Q22 results was a positive surprise for investors. I looked into the recent quarter and was pleasantly surprised that there were signs of improvement and that the worst is likely over for Alibaba.Investment thesisI have written two deep dive articles into Alibaba that you can read further to learn more about the business as well as the regulatory risks of the company. My investment thesis remains as I continue to see Alibaba as currently one of the better risk/reward opportunities out there due to the following factors:1. China commerce: One of the most valuable assets Alibaba has is its huge consumer base of 1 billion users and spends $1,300 annually, which can bring about further monetization or help scale its other newer platforms.2. International commerce: This business is a low hanging fruit for Alibaba as it has a replicable strategy and strong moat, as well as logistics capabilities to compete with international e-commerce brands in international markets.3. Cloud: Alibaba will likely remain the leader in a fast growing cloud market in China and continue to look out for international markets to grow in. Furthermore, its in-house production of chips and development of OS could bring about further cost efficiencies and better products while reducing reliance on third party suppliers.4. Investing for growth in the future: Alibaba is reinvesting its incremental profits into its strategic businesses which, in my view, is necessary to ensure Alibaba is able to compete and win competitors. Also, Alibaba is continuing its mergers and acquisitions strategy to acquire new businesses to capture future opportunities or bring value to existing businesses.Cloud computing achieves scale and positive adjusted EBITDA marginsFor the cloud computing segment, it reported revenues of Rmb19 billion in 4Q22, which representing 12% growth year on year. This was compared to the prior quarter's growth of 20% year-on-year and prior year's growth of 38% year-on-year. The slowdown is due to weakness in certain sectors, slowing economic activities, and the company's strategic focus on higher quality revenues.In particular, the weakness came from the internet industries like online education and entertainment. According to management, the cloud computing revenue growth would have been 15% year-on-year if the revenues from its top customer in the internet industry, Bytedance were excluded. According to management, Bytedance apparently stopped using Alibaba's overseas cloud services for its international business due to requirements that are non-product related.As a result of weakness in the internet sector, the revenue contribution from non-internet industries increased to 52% as several sectors like telecommunications, retailing and financials reported strong growth to offset the weakness in the internet industry.On the margins front, the cloud computing segment posted positive 1% adjusted EBITDA margins in 4Q22, compared to -2% adjusted EBITDA margins one year ago. This was attributable to the gradual improvement in economies of scale for the business, as well as better loss control for Dingtalk. Management also expects that margins for the cloud computing business to continue to improve in FY2023 as top line growth continues. In my view, the margins profile of Alibaba's cloud computing segment is at a pivotal moment for the business as it transitions towards positive adjusted EBITDA margins with improving economies of scale.I think that is is also encouraging to see that management continues to see the long term potential in the cloud industry and Alibaba's cloud segment despite the near term blip. Management believes that the cloud industry can grow 2 to 3 times in the long run to reach Rmb1 trillion in the next few years. This comes as the cloud plays a key role for the development of the economy and for digital transformation. With that, the focus for Alibaba on the cloud computing sector is crucial, and management believe that Alibaba needs to cater to the differing needs of different sectors to be able to leverage on this huge opportunity in the long run. In my view, the other positive is that this will continue to drive top line growth and with the cloud revenues of the entire company already exceeding Rmb100 billion in the last fiscal year, this translates to huge economies of scale and potential for cost reduction and efficiency improvement that will further drive upside to cloud computing margins in the near term.China CommerceRevenues from the China Commerce segment grew 7% year on year to RMB 136 billion. There was a low teens year-on-year decline in GMV in April and management sees that there are signs of improvement in May. The total FY2022 GMV in China Commerce grew by 2% year on year.Alibaba continued to grow on the user front. China commerce Annual Active Consumers (AAC) reached 903million, up 21 million users from the previous quarter and up 89 million users from a year ago. Notably, of these increases, 70% are from less-developed areas. This is in line with Alibaba's push toward rural and less developed customers to grow its customer base.Specifically, we are seeing growth in Taobao Deals and Taocaicai. Taobao Deals AACs grew to more than 300 million, adding 20 million users in the quarter while paid orders on Taobao Deals grew 35% year on year in the current quarter. In addition, Taocaicai, Alibaba's community market place catered to lower tier cities and rural areas continued to grow AACs to more than 90 million and more than 50% of these were first time fresh produce buyers on Alibaba. Also, Taocaicai GMV continued to expand in the last quarter due to improving average order values.Alibaba recorded robust user growth compared to peers (QuestMobile; Goldman)While there were low single-digit declines in Taobao and Small online physical goods GMV, the customer management revenues (CMR) remained stable year on year. This was due to some offset by positive growth in advertising revenues.EBITDA declined RMB 7 billion to Rmb 32 billion, representing an EBITDA margin of 23%. This decline in EBITDA margins was due to the drag from Taocaicai and Taobao Deals as management invests in these relatively higher growths and newer businesses. In addition, Sun Art reported an RMB 1.4 billion loss, most of it due to an asset impairment provision.Management remains committed to improving efficiency and narrowing losses for Taobao Deals. Furthermore, management has been more disciplined in investment pace for Taocaicai to reduce its impact on margins to the group. It has done so by choosing certain target cities where it aims to improve order density and thus focus on establishing regional warehouses and infrastructure in these cities. Thus, the focus will be more on high-quality growth for the Taocaicai business.In addition, in my view, the combined losses from both Taobao Deals and Taocaicai has likely peaked in December 2021 and saw sequential declines in losses in the current quarter. I think we will continue to expect the combined losses to decline as management continued to focus on higher-quality growth for China's commerce segment.International CommerceRevenues from international commerce grew by 7% year on year as AACs grew by 4 million compared to the prior quarter, and 64 million when compared to the prior year. There was a growth of 32% and 48% year on year respectively for Lazada and Trendyol while AliExpress saw a decline in order volume. This was due to the changes in EU's VAT rules and supply chain/logistics disruptions due to Russia-Ukraine conflict, as highlighted by management. International commerce segment's adjusted EBITDA margin remained stable at -18% as the company continues to spend on marketing and promotions to increase user engagement and acquisition.International commerce remains to be one of Alibaba's key growth drivers to tap on less mature e-commerce markets outside of China. While there could be near term competition from other e-commerce companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Shopee, which is owned by Sea Limited (SE), Alibaba's international commerce can still ride the wave of increasing e-commerce penetration in these markets and post higher long term average growth rates than in the mature China Commerce segment.Local Consumer ServicesAs for the local consumer services segment, revenues grew to Rmb 10 billion, up 29% year on year. Ele.me, Alibaba's online food delivery platform, continued to show improvement in unit economics and is reaching near break-even due to improvements in the delivery cost per order as well as the company reducing spend on user acquisitions.As Ele.me continues to scale, its unit economics improvement, as well as the cost reductions made by management will continue to contribute to bottom-line growth for the Group.Stringent cost control and improving regulatory environmentManagement continues to be committed to add value by assessing the areas of its business where there can be further improvement in efficiencies and to reduce costs to make the entire cost structure of the business more nimble and lean. Some of these control in costs includes stringent control over sales and marketing expenses. This, in my view, is positive for Alibaba as the near term may prove challenging with top-line slowing, and management's efforts to provide long term shareholder value through cost efficiencies will be appreciated by the market.The regulatory landscape also seems to be improving, adding to the signs that the worst could be over for Alibaba. In the recent State Council meeting, the government is rolling out supportive measures, some of which are beneficial to Alibaba's business, including stimulating consumption and the commitment to the recovery of supply chains. Also, management commented that the government shared a clear message to the market to encourage the healthy development of platform economies and that management is fully compliant with all the regulatory requirements and continues to watch for any new development in policies on the anti-trust front. I think this shows that the government is sending a message that it will not clamp down too much on platform companies, but rather continues to see the benefits of the healthy development of platform companies for the economy.ValuationI have previously shared my financial model for Alibaba and derived a target price based on its sum of the parts valuation. I forecasted the financials and used a DCF model for most of its businesses except Cainiao, local services and its associates/investments since these businesses are mostly either private or have limited public information. I used rather conservative forecasts, in my view and also applied a holding company discount of 25%, with other assumptions listed in the table below. Based on the SOTP valuation, I have derived a target price of $164 for Alibaba, representing an upside potential of 76% from current levels.Alibaba target price based on SOTP (Author generated)Based on relative valuation, Alibaba now trades at 12x and 9x 2023F and 2024F P/E respectively, while average earnings growth over the 2-year period is expected to be 15%, implying a PEG of 0.8x.RisksCompetitionWhile Alibaba might be the largest player in China, there are risks that competition could threaten Alibaba's market share in both China and in overseas markets. In China, it has to compete against prominent rivals like JD.com (JD) and Pinduoduo (PDD) in a rather mature e-commerce market. As for its international commerce segment, they face competition from international players like Amazon and Shopee, as highlighted earlier. Competitive pressure from both local and international players could slow GMV and user growth for Alibaba compared to expectations.Regulatory and political risksAlibaba is one of the worst-hit companies hit by the regulatory crackdown. However, I am of the view that we have seen the worst of the regulatory crackdown and the government is signalling easing of regulatory pressures, which I think are necessary for the government to improve its economy amidst its zero-covid policy. As such, the worst is likely over for Alibaba as most of the regulatory pressures have eased and we could start seeing better times for the company.Execution in investmentsAlibaba management has renewed focus on investing in key strategic areas in its business as mentioned earlier. However, this will come down to execution as Alibaba seeks to gain share in these areas. If execution were to be weak, ideal results of the heavy investments may not materialize.Cloud risksThere is risk that Alibaba's cloud revenue growth could slow down given that there is competition from Huawei, Tencent and China Telecom. If Alibaba is unable to maintain market leadership in cloud, this could affect economies of scale effects that it currently enjoys.ConclusionI think this presents one of the best buying opportunities for Alibaba as the worst is likely over for the company. Looking beyond 2023F earnings, the business is expected to continue to grow in the 20% to 30% range and the current valuation simply just does not price in this long term potential. I think we could continue to see positive surprises for Alibaba in the next few quarters as it surpasses the very low expectations set by the market. My target price for Alibaba based on a SOTP valuation model is $164, implying 76% upside potential from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}