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Benedict Tay

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- Benedict TayBenedict Tay
  ·10-24
  Will re-enter at $85~$90. Happy to let go @ $117. Think result will be improve in Q2...🙏🙏🙏
  Alibaba: Buy This Little Dip
  I initiated my Alibaba stock position at its lowest point in January 2024, and it has since grown by 51.5%, outperforming the S&P 500.Despite recent declines, I maintain a "Buy" rating for BABA, expec
  Alibaba: Buy This Little Dip
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- Benedict TayBenedict Tay
  ·2023-12-25
  Share your opinion about this news…
  Apple Explores AI Deals With News Publishers
  Apple has opened negotiations in recent weeks with major news and publishing organizations, seeking permission to use their material in the company's development of generative artificial intelligence systems, the New York Times reported on Friday.The iPhone maker has floated multiyear deals worth at least $50 million to license the archives of news articles, according to the report, which cited people familiar with the discussions.The news organizations contacted by Apple include Condé Nast, pub
  Apple Explores AI Deals With News Publishers
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Tay","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579988641562271","authorIdStr":"3579988641562271"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will re-enter at $85~$90. Happy to let go @ $117. Think result will be improve in Q2...🙏🙏🙏","listText":"Will re-enter at $85~$90. Happy to let go @ $117. Think result will be improve in Q2...🙏🙏🙏","text":"Will re-enter at $85~$90. Happy to let go @ $117. Think result will be improve in Q2...🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363474537132096","repostId":"2477549069","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477549069","pubTimestamp":1729741600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477549069?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-24 11:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Buy This Little Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477549069","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I initiated my Alibaba stock position at its lowest point in January 2024, and it has since grown by 51.5%, outperforming the S&P 500.Despite recent declines, I maintain a \"Buy\" rating for BABA, expec","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I initiated my Alibaba stock position at its lowest point in January 2024, and it has since grown by 51.5%, outperforming the S&amp;P 500.</p></li><li><p>Despite recent declines, I maintain a &#34;Buy&#34; rating for BABA, expecting continued growth as China&#39;s economy recovers and Alibaba&#39;s diverse business segments show promise.</p></li><li><p>Alibaba&#39;s Q1 2025 report showed mixed results, but strong international commerce and cloud growth, alongside a robust balance sheet, support long-term potential.</p></li><li><p>The forward PEG ratio, which accounts for P/E weighted on future EPS growth rate, indicates an undervaluation of nearly 28%. The cash-to-market cap ratio is still above 35%.</p></li><li><p>I think Alibaba&#39;s strategic investments and undervaluation present a compelling buy opportunity ahead of its fiscal Q2 report.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462cd3697f83bcec3578c700effe99fc\" alt=\"maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\" title=\"maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2544159979\">My Thesis Update</h2><p>I was fortunate to initiate my coverage of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba Group</a> stock at the end of January 2024, during its lowest local price point. So in a way, I luckily managed to catch the local bottom for BABA stock at the time, and since then, it has grown by 51.5%, whereas the S&amp;P 500 index (SPX) has increased by almost 22.4%. In my last bullish update on BABA, when the stock had only risen 8.8% since I began my coverage, I called for buying the dip as I believed Alibaba remained one of the most undervalued yet highly attractive opportunities available at that time. I saw a promising catalyst on the horizon that could &#34;represent a turning point for Alibaba and the entire Chinese stock market.&#34; And so it happened - China&#39;s party leadership announced massive measures to stimulate the economy, enabling Chinese equities to make a huge comeback. Against all this backdrop, BABA stock couldn&#39;t help but react with a sharp price rise:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/57567472fd5f2bf4675d48f7b04e5251\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, Oakoff&#39;s coverage of BABA stock\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, Oakoff&#39;s coverage of BABA stock\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, Oakoff&#39;s coverage of BABA stock</span></p><p>Recently, however, we have seen the stock&#39;s sharp rise followed by a slight decline - the relief of the rally began in early October and continues to this day, with BABA stock down about 14.5% off its 2024 high:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f26ce78bbe83be34473bc8ff75522b22\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>However, I don&#39;t believe that this relief will last long: In my opinion, BABA should continue to rise as investors return to China and the economy and the company&#39;s diverse business advantages show signs of a sustained recovery. The upcoming Q2 numbers shall provide an additional catalyst to convince investors that BABA deserves buying. Hence, my &#34;Buy&#34; rating today, with a call to buy this little dip.</p><h2 id=\"id_315550362\">My Reasoning</h2><p>Alibaba Group&#39;s Q1 FY2025 report (calendar Q2 2024) revealed mixed signals, with modest growth and resurgent challenges. The firm generated RMB 243.2 billion in revenue, a 4% growth over last year, but below the RMB 246 billion consensus forecast. In US dollars, revenue came in at $33.94 billion, which is also up 4% YoY but falls short of the $34.6 billion expected. Non-GAAP earnings per share of RMB 2.05 was down 9% YoY, but normalized $2.29 per ADS beat the consensus of $2.09, according to Seeking Alpha Premium. So we could see that the economic problems of China - such as high unemployment and declining consumer demand - continued to hit Alibaba&#39;s main e-commerce business. On the other hand, Wall Street analysts started to revise their forecasts for Q2 FY2025 more actively, which is generally a good sign:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1d29d00f086fe8ba9ee390d63b81cbd\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, BABA\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, BABA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"116\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, BABA</span></p><p>Breaking down the segments&#39; performance, we see that the Alibaba Chinese retail business (including Taobao and Tmall Group) went down by ~1% to RMB 107.4 billion, now accounting for ~47% of total revenue. This was mainly due to a 9% decline in direct sales despite a 1% increase in customer management. Adjusted EBITDA for this business declined 1% to RMB 48.8 billion, and EBITDA margin slightly rose to 43.1%. The strategic shift from a user-centric perspective and pricing wars have put pressure on margins, which typically fell between 40-60%. However, Alibaba&#39;s management now expects that higher GMV will eventually increase revenue and margins. Prospective estimates are what we should care about the most, as the stock prices usually reflect the forwarding projections, not the past results.</p><p>The international commerce segment remained Alibaba&#39;s star, with revenues up 32% to RMB 29.3 billion year-on-year, fueled by a 38% increase in international retail sales. Yet, this area recorded a negative margin of -12.7% which is a drastic decline from -1.9% at the same time last year, but I believe as the GMV expands, the margins should follow eventually.</p><p>Alibaba Cloud, another major area of interest for us, experienced a 6% growth in revenue at RMB 26.6 billion. Alibaba Cloud is focusing on increasing revenue quality by eliminating lower-margin contracts and taking advantage of the strong demand for public cloud and AI solutions. We already see some initial successes: Cloud&#39;s EBITA jumped 155% YoY, and margins increased from 3.6% to 8.8%. I believe more to come, as the Western peers tend to earn times more in terms of margins (Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS makes 38% in EBIT margin, for example).</p><p>In spite of these growth opportunities, in the last few years, Alibaba has struggled a lot, especially in the e-commerce sector. It&#39;s been falling short in market share to its peers such as PDD Holdings (PDD) and Douyin, who have penetrated into Alibaba&#39;s longtime areas of dominance: beauty and fashion. Between March 2022 and March 2023, Alibaba&#39;s market share in China&#39;s online retail sales of merchandise declined from 72% to 62%, according to Morningstar Premium data (proprietary source, August 2024). This is due to increased competition and the move to Taobao, which has a lower take rate than Tmall. In the long term, these competition pressures will likely drive down the company&#39;s monetization rates. But I think the GMV growth should smooth out the negative effect over time. In addition to that, the cloud opportunity, as well as the international commerce&#39;s marginality expansion should make BABA&#39;s financials stable enough for its management to keep rewarding the shareholders through buybacks and dividends.</p><p>Alibaba&#39;s balance sheet looks quite healthy, in my opinion, with high cash resources and a strong cash flow mix from its e-commerce stores. The company is announcing a large share buyback program that it expects to expand by $25 billion to $35.3 billion over the next 3 financial years. This move is in line with the wider strategy to drive ROIC and remit more capital to shareholders. So this way, based on my calculations, Alibaba may repurchase nearly 15% of its market capitalization from the market over the next 3 years. Coupled with a small yet stable dividend of over 1%, this strategy should provide a comfortably attractive total shareholder return.</p><p>I believe Alibaba&#39;s economic moat, the combination of a strong network effect and operational expertise, hasn&#39;t been demolished in this competitive environment. The company is still monetizing its platform well and still has higher adjusted EBIT margins than other players such as JD.com (JD) and Pinduoduo.</p><p>For fiscal Q2 FY2025, BABA forecasts a gradual alignment of its core China commerce revenue with GMV growth. Alibaba also predicts strong revenue growth in the cloud, which will be driven by AI-related and core public cloud demand. The company is also geared towards streamlining its services and improving cross-selling between public cloud and AI solutions. So despite the difficult macroeconomic conditions in China, which are now expected to improve over the next few years, Alibaba remains determined to improve and capitalize on growth in the cloud and outside China.</p><p>Despite its strong growth over the past several weeks, the BABA stock remains quite undervalued, in my view. Although its free cash flow to market cap ratio (i.e., FCF yield) has declined from ~16% at the beginning of the year to ~9.4% today, the total cash on the company&#39;s balance sheet still exceeds 35% of its market cap. This suggests that the market continues to underestimate the company and remains skeptical of its recovery potential.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e52ea87016e0e7fd3a329f2d49065437\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Meanwhile, if you examine Seeking Alpha Quant rating concerning Alibaba&#39;s Valuation, you&#39;ll notice it has shifted over the past 3 months indeed (while it&#39;s not overly negative, BABA has become slightly more expensive). However, according to the key valuation metrics I focus on (I highlighted them below), it remains quite undervalued. For instance, the forward PEG ratio, which accounts for P/E weighted on future EPS growth rate, indicates an undervaluation of nearly 28%. Additionally, the company&#39;s forwarding EV/EBITDA is 34% below the sector median. So I believe Alibaba would need to grow by about this amount to eliminate its margin of safety.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6431222a8aded41859cd91465935453\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, BABA, Oakoff&#39;s notes added\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, BABA, Oakoff&#39;s notes added\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, BABA, Oakoff&#39;s notes added</span></p><p>I think we might see an additional catalyst in the form of the company&#39;s fiscal Q2 report (scheduled for release on November 15, 2024) to see the recovery&#39;s continuation. Analysts are expecting BABA&#39;s EPS to decline by almost 5% YoY, according to Seeking Alpha data. Furthermore, recent changes in EPS estimates suggest that Wall Street has become increasingly cautious about the company&#39;s EPS growth prospects through the end of fiscal 2025:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6618838021708e1842d700fb7dad5485\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, BABA\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, BABA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, BABA</span></p><p>I believe that, given the positive internal factors I&#39;ve outlined above, the current environment is favorable for Alibaba to exceed analysts&#39; forecasts in Q2 at least. In my opinion, this could serve as a positive catalyst, potentially leading to a continued recovery in the medium term.</p><h2 id=\"id_667581765\">Risks To My Thesis</h2><p>One risk lies at the macroeconomic level. The incentives recently announced by the Chinese Communist Party are a strong catalyst for market growth, as they&#39;re expected to boost retail investor activity in the mainland&#39;s stock market and stimulate the real estate sector. However, it&#39;s important to remember that the debt burden in the Chinese real estate sector remains a major problem. So those incentives may only address the symptoms and not the causes of the economic challenges. If this is the case, I don&#39;t believe that the negative effects plaguing the Chinese economy will disappear anytime soon.</p><p>The second risk relates to strong competition and Alibaba&#39;s role in its niche markets. While the company&#39;s broad diversification and growth in certain segments paint an overall positive picture, it can&#39;t be ignored that Alibaba continues to lose market share to faster-growing Chinese companies in its key areas. If this trend continues, its stock price could stagnate or even fall further.</p><p>I also come to the conclusion that the company is undervalued. In my opinion, however, undervaluation alone is not a sufficient reason to buy the stock. Alibaba has remained cheap over the last two years, but this has not prevented the stock price from falling further and becoming increasingly undervalued. So there is a risk that this trend may continue.</p><h2 id=\"id_1830185135\">Your Takeaway</h2><p>Despite the numerous risks mentioned above, I believe that investors should consider adding to their positions in Alibaba stock after it has fallen slightly since the beginning of October. Although the company is indeed facing difficult times, I believe it has a clear plan for developing its key segments, increasing GMV, and improving profitability in areas that are currently unprofitable or marginally profitable. Given the scale and moat of the company and the significant investment it is putting into its further growth, I believe it&#39;s inevitable that management will succeed in these efforts. This should result in the fundamentals eventually becoming a driving force for the stock&#39;s growth in the medium term. The undervaluation that I identified about 3 months ago has decreased slightly but is still significant enough to warrant investors&#39; attention. Buying the stock today could still provide a margin of safety, in my view.</p><p>With all of this in mind, I believe the stock will continue to rally over the medium term, and the company&#39;s fiscal second-quarter report could serve as a catalyst for that rally, especially if it beats forecasts as I expect it.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Buy This Little Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Buy This Little Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-24 11:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728829-alibaba-stock-buy-this-little-dip><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I initiated my Alibaba stock position at its lowest point in January 2024, and it has since grown by 51.5%, outperforming the S&P 500.Despite recent declines, I maintain a \"Buy\" rating for BABA, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728829-alibaba-stock-buy-this-little-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU0431992006.USD":"摩根大通新兴市场机会A（acc）","LU0132412106.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1688375341.USD":"贝莱德中国灵活股票基金","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1152091168.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","BK4220":"综合零售","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4588":"碎股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728829-alibaba-stock-buy-this-little-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2477549069","content_text":"I initiated my Alibaba stock position at its lowest point in January 2024, and it has since grown by 51.5%, outperforming the S&P 500.Despite recent declines, I maintain a \"Buy\" rating for BABA, expecting continued growth as China's economy recovers and Alibaba's diverse business segments show promise.Alibaba's Q1 2025 report showed mixed results, but strong international commerce and cloud growth, alongside a robust balance sheet, support long-term potential.The forward PEG ratio, which accounts for P/E weighted on future EPS growth rate, indicates an undervaluation of nearly 28%. The cash-to-market cap ratio is still above 35%.I think Alibaba's strategic investments and undervaluation present a compelling buy opportunity ahead of its fiscal Q2 report.maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesMy Thesis UpdateI was fortunate to initiate my coverage of Alibaba Group stock at the end of January 2024, during its lowest local price point. So in a way, I luckily managed to catch the local bottom for BABA stock at the time, and since then, it has grown by 51.5%, whereas the S&P 500 index (SPX) has increased by almost 22.4%. In my last bullish update on BABA, when the stock had only risen 8.8% since I began my coverage, I called for buying the dip as I believed Alibaba remained one of the most undervalued yet highly attractive opportunities available at that time. I saw a promising catalyst on the horizon that could \"represent a turning point for Alibaba and the entire Chinese stock market.\" And so it happened - China's party leadership announced massive measures to stimulate the economy, enabling Chinese equities to make a huge comeback. Against all this backdrop, BABA stock couldn't help but react with a sharp price rise:Seeking Alpha, Oakoff's coverage of BABA stockRecently, however, we have seen the stock's sharp rise followed by a slight decline - the relief of the rally began in early October and continues to this day, with BABA stock down about 14.5% off its 2024 high:Data by YChartsHowever, I don't believe that this relief will last long: In my opinion, BABA should continue to rise as investors return to China and the economy and the company's diverse business advantages show signs of a sustained recovery. The upcoming Q2 numbers shall provide an additional catalyst to convince investors that BABA deserves buying. Hence, my \"Buy\" rating today, with a call to buy this little dip.My ReasoningAlibaba Group's Q1 FY2025 report (calendar Q2 2024) revealed mixed signals, with modest growth and resurgent challenges. The firm generated RMB 243.2 billion in revenue, a 4% growth over last year, but below the RMB 246 billion consensus forecast. In US dollars, revenue came in at $33.94 billion, which is also up 4% YoY but falls short of the $34.6 billion expected. Non-GAAP earnings per share of RMB 2.05 was down 9% YoY, but normalized $2.29 per ADS beat the consensus of $2.09, according to Seeking Alpha Premium. So we could see that the economic problems of China - such as high unemployment and declining consumer demand - continued to hit Alibaba's main e-commerce business. On the other hand, Wall Street analysts started to revise their forecasts for Q2 FY2025 more actively, which is generally a good sign:Seeking Alpha, BABABreaking down the segments' performance, we see that the Alibaba Chinese retail business (including Taobao and Tmall Group) went down by ~1% to RMB 107.4 billion, now accounting for ~47% of total revenue. This was mainly due to a 9% decline in direct sales despite a 1% increase in customer management. Adjusted EBITDA for this business declined 1% to RMB 48.8 billion, and EBITDA margin slightly rose to 43.1%. The strategic shift from a user-centric perspective and pricing wars have put pressure on margins, which typically fell between 40-60%. However, Alibaba's management now expects that higher GMV will eventually increase revenue and margins. Prospective estimates are what we should care about the most, as the stock prices usually reflect the forwarding projections, not the past results.The international commerce segment remained Alibaba's star, with revenues up 32% to RMB 29.3 billion year-on-year, fueled by a 38% increase in international retail sales. Yet, this area recorded a negative margin of -12.7% which is a drastic decline from -1.9% at the same time last year, but I believe as the GMV expands, the margins should follow eventually.Alibaba Cloud, another major area of interest for us, experienced a 6% growth in revenue at RMB 26.6 billion. Alibaba Cloud is focusing on increasing revenue quality by eliminating lower-margin contracts and taking advantage of the strong demand for public cloud and AI solutions. We already see some initial successes: Cloud's EBITA jumped 155% YoY, and margins increased from 3.6% to 8.8%. I believe more to come, as the Western peers tend to earn times more in terms of margins (Amazon's (AMZN) AWS makes 38% in EBIT margin, for example).In spite of these growth opportunities, in the last few years, Alibaba has struggled a lot, especially in the e-commerce sector. It's been falling short in market share to its peers such as PDD Holdings (PDD) and Douyin, who have penetrated into Alibaba's longtime areas of dominance: beauty and fashion. Between March 2022 and March 2023, Alibaba's market share in China's online retail sales of merchandise declined from 72% to 62%, according to Morningstar Premium data (proprietary source, August 2024). This is due to increased competition and the move to Taobao, which has a lower take rate than Tmall. In the long term, these competition pressures will likely drive down the company's monetization rates. But I think the GMV growth should smooth out the negative effect over time. In addition to that, the cloud opportunity, as well as the international commerce's marginality expansion should make BABA's financials stable enough for its management to keep rewarding the shareholders through buybacks and dividends.Alibaba's balance sheet looks quite healthy, in my opinion, with high cash resources and a strong cash flow mix from its e-commerce stores. The company is announcing a large share buyback program that it expects to expand by $25 billion to $35.3 billion over the next 3 financial years. This move is in line with the wider strategy to drive ROIC and remit more capital to shareholders. So this way, based on my calculations, Alibaba may repurchase nearly 15% of its market capitalization from the market over the next 3 years. Coupled with a small yet stable dividend of over 1%, this strategy should provide a comfortably attractive total shareholder return.I believe Alibaba's economic moat, the combination of a strong network effect and operational expertise, hasn't been demolished in this competitive environment. The company is still monetizing its platform well and still has higher adjusted EBIT margins than other players such as JD.com (JD) and Pinduoduo.For fiscal Q2 FY2025, BABA forecasts a gradual alignment of its core China commerce revenue with GMV growth. Alibaba also predicts strong revenue growth in the cloud, which will be driven by AI-related and core public cloud demand. The company is also geared towards streamlining its services and improving cross-selling between public cloud and AI solutions. So despite the difficult macroeconomic conditions in China, which are now expected to improve over the next few years, Alibaba remains determined to improve and capitalize on growth in the cloud and outside China.Despite its strong growth over the past several weeks, the BABA stock remains quite undervalued, in my view. Although its free cash flow to market cap ratio (i.e., FCF yield) has declined from ~16% at the beginning of the year to ~9.4% today, the total cash on the company's balance sheet still exceeds 35% of its market cap. This suggests that the market continues to underestimate the company and remains skeptical of its recovery potential.Data by YChartsMeanwhile, if you examine Seeking Alpha Quant rating concerning Alibaba's Valuation, you'll notice it has shifted over the past 3 months indeed (while it's not overly negative, BABA has become slightly more expensive). However, according to the key valuation metrics I focus on (I highlighted them below), it remains quite undervalued. For instance, the forward PEG ratio, which accounts for P/E weighted on future EPS growth rate, indicates an undervaluation of nearly 28%. Additionally, the company's forwarding EV/EBITDA is 34% below the sector median. So I believe Alibaba would need to grow by about this amount to eliminate its margin of safety.Seeking Alpha, BABA, Oakoff's notes addedI think we might see an additional catalyst in the form of the company's fiscal Q2 report (scheduled for release on November 15, 2024) to see the recovery's continuation. Analysts are expecting BABA's EPS to decline by almost 5% YoY, according to Seeking Alpha data. Furthermore, recent changes in EPS estimates suggest that Wall Street has become increasingly cautious about the company's EPS growth prospects through the end of fiscal 2025:Seeking Alpha, BABAI believe that, given the positive internal factors I've outlined above, the current environment is favorable for Alibaba to exceed analysts' forecasts in Q2 at least. In my opinion, this could serve as a positive catalyst, potentially leading to a continued recovery in the medium term.Risks To My ThesisOne risk lies at the macroeconomic level. The incentives recently announced by the Chinese Communist Party are a strong catalyst for market growth, as they're expected to boost retail investor activity in the mainland's stock market and stimulate the real estate sector. However, it's important to remember that the debt burden in the Chinese real estate sector remains a major problem. So those incentives may only address the symptoms and not the causes of the economic challenges. If this is the case, I don't believe that the negative effects plaguing the Chinese economy will disappear anytime soon.The second risk relates to strong competition and Alibaba's role in its niche markets. While the company's broad diversification and growth in certain segments paint an overall positive picture, it can't be ignored that Alibaba continues to lose market share to faster-growing Chinese companies in its key areas. If this trend continues, its stock price could stagnate or even fall further.I also come to the conclusion that the company is undervalued. In my opinion, however, undervaluation alone is not a sufficient reason to buy the stock. Alibaba has remained cheap over the last two years, but this has not prevented the stock price from falling further and becoming increasingly undervalued. So there is a risk that this trend may continue.Your TakeawayDespite the numerous risks mentioned above, I believe that investors should consider adding to their positions in Alibaba stock after it has fallen slightly since the beginning of October. Although the company is indeed facing difficult times, I believe it has a clear plan for developing its key segments, increasing GMV, and improving profitability in areas that are currently unprofitable or marginally profitable. Given the scale and moat of the company and the significant investment it is putting into its further growth, I believe it's inevitable that management will succeed in these efforts. This should result in the fundamentals eventually becoming a driving force for the stock's growth in the medium term. The undervaluation that I identified about 3 months ago has decreased slightly but is still significant enough to warrant investors' attention. Buying the stock today could still provide a margin of safety, in my view.With all of this in mind, I believe the stock will continue to rally over the medium term, and the company's fiscal second-quarter report could serve as a catalyst for that rally, especially if it beats forecasts as I expect it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255876310921344,"gmtCreate":1703496922222,"gmtModify":1703497922561,"author":{"id":"3579988641562271","authorId":"3579988641562271","name":"Benedict Tay","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579988641562271","authorIdStr":"3579988641562271"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255876310921344","repostId":"2393379448","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2393379448","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1703471410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2393379448?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-25 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Explores AI Deals With News Publishers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2393379448","media":"Reuters","summary":"Apple has opened negotiations in recent weeks with major news and publishing organizations, seeking permission to use their material in the company's development of generative artificial intelligence systems, the New York Times reported on Friday.The iPhone maker has floated multiyear deals worth at least $50 million to license the archives of news articles, according to the report, which cited people familiar with the discussions.The news organizations contacted by Apple include Condé Nast, pub","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Apple has opened negotiations in recent weeks with major news and publishing organizations, seeking permission to use their material in the company&#39;s development of generative artificial intelligence systems, the New York Times reported on Friday.</p><p>The iPhone maker has floated multiyear deals worth at least $50 million to license the archives of news articles, according to the report, which cited people familiar with the discussions.</p><p>The news organizations contacted by Apple include Condé Nast, publisher of Vogue and the New Yorker; NBC News; and IAC, which owns People, the Daily Beast and Better Homes and Gardens, the New York Times said.</p><p>Some of the publishers contacted by Apple were lukewarm on the overture, according to the report.</p><p>Apple did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.</p><p>Big tech has been investing aggressively to integrate generative AI. On the other hand, Apple has used the technology to improve basic functions in its new gadgets.</p><p>Apple also introduced new MacBook Pro and iMac computers and three new chips to power them in October, highlighting that these can be used by artificial intelligence researchers, whose chatbots and other creations are often constrained by how much data can be held in the computer&#39;s memory.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Explores AI Deals With News Publishers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Explores AI Deals With News Publishers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-12-25 10:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Apple has opened negotiations in recent weeks with major news and publishing organizations, seeking permission to use their material in the company&#39;s development of generative artificial intelligence systems, the New York Times reported on Friday.</p><p>The iPhone maker has floated multiyear deals worth at least $50 million to license the archives of news articles, according to the report, which cited people familiar with the discussions.</p><p>The news organizations contacted by Apple include Condé Nast, publisher of Vogue and the New Yorker; NBC News; and IAC, which owns People, the Daily Beast and Better Homes and Gardens, the New York Times said.</p><p>Some of the publishers contacted by Apple were lukewarm on the overture, according to the report.</p><p>Apple did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.</p><p>Big tech has been investing aggressively to integrate generative AI. On the other hand, Apple has used the technology to improve basic functions in its new gadgets.</p><p>Apple also introduced new MacBook Pro and iMac computers and three new chips to power them in October, highlighting that these can be used by artificial intelligence researchers, whose chatbots and other creations are often constrained by how much data can be held in the computer&#39;s memory.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2393379448","content_text":"Apple has opened negotiations in recent weeks with major news and publishing organizations, seeking permission to use their material in the company's development of generative artificial intelligence systems, the New York Times reported on Friday.The iPhone maker has floated multiyear deals worth at least $50 million to license the archives of news articles, according to the report, which cited people familiar with the discussions.The news organizations contacted by Apple include Condé Nast, publisher of Vogue and the New Yorker; NBC News; and IAC, which owns People, the Daily Beast and Better Homes and Gardens, the New York Times said.Some of the publishers contacted by Apple were lukewarm on the overture, according to the report.Apple did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.Big tech has been investing aggressively to integrate generative AI. On the other hand, Apple has used the technology to improve basic functions in its new gadgets.Apple also introduced new MacBook Pro and iMac computers and three new chips to power them in October, highlighting that these can be used by artificial intelligence researchers, whose chatbots and other creations are often constrained by how much data can be held in the computer's memory.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}