Profile - To The Moon

kerukel88

Posts · 417Posts · 417
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2023-03-16
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  2.29K Comment
  8
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-12-20
  Ok
  3 Warren Buffett Stocks That Could Soar 39% to 83% in 2023, According to Wall Street
  If analysts are right, better days could be on the way for these beaten-down stocks.
  3 Warren Buffett Stocks That Could Soar 39% to 83% in 2023, According to Wall Street
  3.67K 1
  5
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-12-08
  Ok
  Why Is NIO Stock Down 5% on Wednesday?
  Nio (NIO) is falling today on a variety of market-related factors.A warning from Wall Street regardi
  Why Is NIO Stock Down 5% on Wednesday?
  2.00K Comment
  1
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-12-07
  Ok
  NIO And BYD Are Converging
  SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pur
  NIO And BYD Are Converging
  3.48K 1
  8
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-12-06
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.11K 1
  4
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-11-30
  Ok
  Is Apple a Must-Own Stock in 2023?
  There's still room for Apple to grow.
  Is Apple a Must-Own Stock in 2023?
  2.28K Comment
  2
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-11-29
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  3.12K 2
  8
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-11-24
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  2.20K Comment
  4
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-11-21
  Ok
  Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook
  SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challe
  Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook
  2.29K Comment
  2
  Share
  Report
- kerukel88kerukel88
  ·2022-11-17
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  2.95K 1
  5
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3580376639553291","uuid":"3580376639553291","gmtCreate":1617282697198,"gmtModify":1617282697198,"name":"kerukel88","pinyin":"kerukel88","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":27,"headSize":314,"tweetSize":417,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9949774892,"gmtCreate":1678938412316,"gmtModify":1678938415822,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949774892","repostId":"2319826065","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926828765,"gmtCreate":1671514140958,"gmtModify":1676538548916,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926828765","repostId":"2292823759","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2292823759","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671508653,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2292823759?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-20 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Warren Buffett Stocks That Could Soar 39% to 83% in 2023, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2292823759","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If analysts are right, better days could be on the way for these beaten-down stocks.","content":"<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett is doing in 2022 what he's frequently done throughout his career -- beating the market. However, Berkshire Hathaway still hasn't been much of a winner, with its shares at nearly the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/19/warren-buffett-stocks-soar-2023-wall-street/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Warren Buffett Stocks That Could Soar 39% to 83% in 2023, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Warren Buffett Stocks That Could Soar 39% to 83% in 2023, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-20 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/19/warren-buffett-stocks-soar-2023-wall-street/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett is doing in 2022 what he's frequently done throughout his career -- beating the market. However, Berkshire Hathaway still hasn't been much of a winner, with its shares at nearly the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/19/warren-buffett-stocks-soar-2023-wall-street/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4176":"多领域控股","NU":"Nu Holdings Ltd.","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","SNOW":"Snowflake","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4538":"云计算","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/19/warren-buffett-stocks-soar-2023-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2292823759","content_text":"Warren Buffett is doing in 2022 what he's frequently done throughout his career -- beating the market. However, Berkshire Hathaway still hasn't been much of a winner, with its shares at nearly the same level they were at the beginning of the year.Though, if analysts are right, the Oracle of Omaha just might be able to continue his market-beating ways in 2023. According to Wall Street, these three Buffett stocks could soar by 39% to 83% next year.1. SnowflakeBuffett himself likely didn't make the call to buy Snowflake for Berkshire's portfolio. One of his two investment managers -- Todd Combs or Ted Weschler -- probably led the charge. However, Buffett clearly went along for the ride. And it's been a wild one so far.Berkshire quickly made close to $800 million after Snowflake's initial public offering (IPO) in 2020. The tech stock, though, has crashed nearly 60% so far this year, making it one of Buffett's biggest losers.However, Wall Street remains bullish about Snowflake. The consensus price target for the stock represents an upside potential of 39%. In November, 28 of the 41 analysts surveyed by Refinitiv rated Snowflake as either a buy or a strong buy, with only one recommending investors sell the stock.Buffett and his team seem to be content to wait on a rebound. So far, Berkshire hasn't sold a single share of Snowflake.2. AmazonThere's no question that Buffett is a brilliant investor. But he has called himself an \"idiot\" for not buying shares of Amazon sooner. Berkshire's younger investment managers helped remedy the mistake, initiating a position in the e-commerce and cloud-hosting giant in 2019.Over time, Berkshire added significantly to its stake in Amazon. Even with this increase, the stock still represents only 0.3% of the conglomerate's total portfolio. That's been a good thing in 2022, with Amazon's shares falling nearly 50%.Wall Street believes a big rebound could be on the way next year. The consensus price target for the stock is close to 60% above the current share price. Of the 47 analysts surveyed by Refinitiv in December, 43 view Amazon as either a buy or a strong buy.Amazon hasn't traveled this much below its previous high in more than a decade. So why isn't Buffett buying the stock hand over fist? Probably the main reason is that he thinks other alternatives offer even more attractive valuations.3. Nu HoldingsBuffett isn't heavily invested outside of the U.S. However, Nu Holdings is one of the seven international stocks in his Berkshire portfolio. Berkshire first invested in the Brazilian fintech company in 2021.Nu Holdings is neck-and-neck with Snowflake as Berkshire's worst-performing stock of 2022. Its shares have plunged nearly 60% year to date.However, Wall Street thinks Nu's troubles should only be temporary. The average price target for the fintech stock is a whopping 83% higher than the current share price.However, there's more dissent among analysts with Nu than for Amazon and Snowflake. Although 10 of the 17 analysts surveyed in November by Refinitiv rated Nu as a buy or strong buy, four recommended holding the stock, and three gave it an \"underperform\" rating.Buffett and his investment managers appear to align more with the Nu Holdings bulls. Berkshire hasn't sold any of its stake in Nu this year as the stock was tanking.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NU":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920696395,"gmtCreate":1670473269917,"gmtModify":1676538376037,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920696395","repostId":"1105450492","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105450492","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670465274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105450492?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-08 10:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Is NIO Stock Down 5% on Wednesday?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105450492","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nio (NIO) is falling today on a variety of market-related factors.A warning from Wall Street regardi","content":"<div>\n<p>Nio (NIO) is falling today on a variety of market-related factors.A warning from Wall Street regarding Tesla (TSLA) is pushing electric vehicle (EV) stocks down in general.Carvana’s (CVNA) bankruptcy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/why-is-nio-stock-down-5-today-ev-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Is NIO Stock Down 5% on Wednesday?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Is NIO Stock Down 5% on Wednesday?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-08 10:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/12/why-is-nio-stock-down-5-today-ev-stocks/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio (NIO) is falling today on a variety of market-related factors.A warning from Wall Street regarding Tesla (TSLA) is pushing electric vehicle (EV) stocks down in general.Carvana’s (CVNA) bankruptcy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/why-is-nio-stock-down-5-today-ev-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/why-is-nio-stock-down-5-today-ev-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105450492","content_text":"Nio (NIO) is falling today on a variety of market-related factors.A warning from Wall Street regarding Tesla (TSLA) is pushing electric vehicle (EV) stocks down in general.Carvana’s (CVNA) bankruptcy concerns are also causing problems for the sector.Chinese automaker Nio (NYSE:NIO) has been falling all day as it struggles against several industry headwinds. Nio isn’t the only EV stock that is down. On the contrary, many of its peers both at home and abroad are suffering. Bad news from multiple fronts has collided to suppress EV makers. Industry leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received a warning that doesn’t bode well for its operations, particularly those in China. This negative market momentum hasn’t been helped by the mounting bankruptcy concerns surrounding Carvana (NYSE: CVNA). Neither story is directly connected to NIO stock, but the negative market momentum they have created is more than enough to drive it down.Let’s take a closer look at the events that are casting a dark shadow over the EV market today.What’s Happening with NIO stock?This week started off well for NIO stock. When China’s government began easing Covid-19 restrictions, stocks across the country started trending upward. AsInvestorPlacewriter William White reported, investors were hopeful that Chinese markets would finally rebound after months of struggling. NIO was amongwinners, along with its EV peerXpeng (NYSE:XPEV).Today’s declines threaten to undo progress made by Chinese EV stocks. NIO stock is down almost 6% for the day and despite a slight rally, it remains firmly in the red. Shares are down almost 50% over the past six months.With this in mind, an in-depth look at the forces pushing NIO down is warranted. This morning, Bernsteinissued a warningthat it foresees Tesla implementing further price cuts in China to raise demand. It also sees Tesla opting for a similar course of action in the U.S. to ensure it qualifies for rebates. Analyst Toni Sacconaghi has highlighted the company’s growing demand issue, reiterating a “sell” rating for TSLA stock.As grim as that sounds, things are looking far worse for Carvana. CVNA stock has plunged 35% today after a news story sparked bankruptcy rumors. According to reports, several of Carvana’s creditors haveagreed to cooperatein restructuring negotiations as per a signed agreement. The company has been struggling for months, but this news could be the last straw for Carvana, pushing it to a point of no return.With things looking dark for the EV sector, it’s hardly any wonder that NIO stock is falling today.The Road AheadThe good news is that while NIO stock is falling today, it isn’t for company-specific reasons but by virtue of broader market forces. As such, it will likely rebound soon as the negative momentum caused by Tesla and Carvana fades away.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920006298,"gmtCreate":1670386128514,"gmtModify":1676538358178,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920006298","repostId":"1122736605","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122736605","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670383031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122736605?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO And BYD Are Converging","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122736605","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pur","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>NIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pureplay upstart, and the other a legacy ICE-turned-electric automaker with dibs across the auto supply chain.</li><li>Yet, their paths may be converging as China&#39;s EV market opportunities grow.</li><li>The following analysis will provide an overview of how NIO and BYD&#39;s longer-term growth strategies are converging, discuss the risks and opportunities facing each, and gauge their respective valuation implications.</li></ul><p>While <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and BYD Company Limited both started off on a different path when it comes to auto manufacturing, with one being an electric vehicle (“EV”) pureplay start-up and the other being a vertically integrated ICE-turned-electric legacy automaker, they now appear to be converging into each other’s turf as competition ramps up. Not long after NIO announced its intentions to break into the tier 3+ market across China to better serve mass market needs, BYD followed suit with two planned sub-brands to penetrate the premium electric passenger vehicle market.</p><p>Admittedly, BYD’s market share is substantially larger than NIO’s today – both at home and overseas – while also boasting better fundamentals, which would be supportive of its foray in the premium vehicle segment. Yet, NIO’s penetration into mass-market opportunities could also benefit by driving the volume of scale needed to support its breakeven timeline, which consensus projects to occur by or around mid-decade, while management expects to occur as soon as the third quarter of 2023.</p><p>The following analysis will go over both Chinese automakers’ respective market share expansion strategies via their planned sub-brands, and gauge the opportunity that exists for both as well as their implications on both stocks’ prospects.</p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO</a></h2><h3>Overview Of Sub-Brand Strategy</h3><p>NIO first announced plans for a mass market sub-brand in August 2021, which aligned with its longer-term strategy of building a greater presence in China’s smaller tier 3+ cities and further expand its share of the country’s fast-expanding EV market.</p><blockquote>As management had discussed during the second quarter, the sub-brand will aim to offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The strategic move is expected to help NIO compete for higher market share, especially in the price segment of Tesla’s (TSLA) Model Y/3, while providing “much better service.” <i>Source: “Can NIO Stock Recover in 2022?”</i></blockquote><p>The sub-brand, currently expected to launch in 2024, is also expected to be more competitively priced, with vehicle MSRPs in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000), taking on a broader cohort of mass market rivals including BYD. The sub-brand’s launch timeline also coincides with the start of production schedule for NIO’s first in-house 800-V battery packs, which would “enable longer ranges and faster charging” compared to general mass market offerings that are currently fitted with 400-V battery packs. NIO also boasts a competitive digital portfolio today that includes in-vehicle AI “NOMI,” “NAD” ADAS, and battery swapping technology that will likely be leveraged by its sub-brands either as an embedded or add-on feature to bolster profit margins. Paired with NIO’s recently launched NT 2.0 vehicle platform, which boasts higher profit margins than its predecessor, the company’s sub-brand products are likely well-positioned for attractive manufacturing economics, while also posing a technological appeal to the burgeoning EV market in China.</p><p>NIO likely has another sub-brand under the wraps as well that is speculated to involve offerings starting at RMB 100,000 ($15,000). This would put it in direct competition against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the current EV market leader in China that has captured the likes of budget-sensitive consumers in the tier 3+ markets with its “Hongguang Mini” priced at an impressive $5,000, and its newest “Baojun KiWi” priced at $11,000.</p><h3>The Opportunity</h3><p>China currently houses the largest share of the global EV market, accounting for more than half of global EV sales. EV sales in the country has already reached a penetration rate of more than 20% (or more than a quarter counting hybrid plug-ins), with adoption being most prominent in more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai and Beijing. The trends have favored NIO in recent years, as its share of premium EV sales across the tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai have steadily grown – as of last year, the company’s portfolio of electric premium SUVs grabbed a 23% share of the passenger vehicle market priced above RMB 350,000 ($50,000+) in China’s financial hub. With an expectation that consistent growth trends would spill into tier 3 and tier 4 cities over the longer-term, NIO management has made mass market penetration a key initiative in its growth plan, hence the planned sub-brands.</p><p>Thanks to favorable policy support from the central government, as well as improving range and increasing availability of public charging infrastructure across China, EV sales in the country are starting to gain momentum &#34;beyond the biggest cities.” Over the past two years, tier 2 and tier 3 cities saw the fastest growth in EV sales, from about 4.5% penetration in 2020 to more than 25% in the current year. Meanwhile, demand from tier 4+ cities with a population ranging from 500,000 to under 1 million have also started to pick-up, with EV sales penetration expanding from under 3.5% in 2020 to nearly 20% in the current year.</p><p>The remaining growth headroom observed pertaining to EV demand in tier 3+ cities are expected to bode favorably for NIO by the time its sub-brand rolls out in 2024. Between now and then, public charging infrastructure availability is expected to become more prominent in “smaller cities and towns” while “city-level policies that restrict the number of new license plates issues” start to ease in accordance to the nationwide mandate to support EV adoption and decarbonization, which would make strong tailwinds for NIO’s planned mass market offerings.</p><h3>Risks To Consider</h3><p>Yet, the Chinese EV landscape is also becoming increasingly competitive. And NIO is not the only EV pureplay looking to better capture global market share by expanding into mass market offerings. In addition to BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling as mentioned in the earlier section, EV pureplay rivals like XPeng (XPEV) have also introduced models in the sub-$30,000 price range, while Tesla’s Model 3 remains a favorite with increasingly attractive pricing.</p><p>As discussed in a previous coverage on NIO, the company risks facing a pricing war in the near-term as competition ramps up, especially as consumer sentiment in the country wanes ahead of mounting macroeconomic uncertainties:</p><blockquote>Despite NIO’s in line 3Q22 sales, the drumbeat is growing louder on concerns over consumer weakness heading into the fourth quarter. COVID-induced mobility restrictions and production disruptions are hampering both supply and demand functions of the company’s profit and growth prospects, souring investors’ confidence in the stock. EV industry leader Tesla’s recent decision to pull the “pricing lever” in the region is also dialing up risks of a pricing war in China’s increasingly competitive EV market. <i>Source: “Is NIO Stock A Buy After Q3’22 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On COVID Zero.”</i></blockquote><p>But the delayed roll-out of NIO’s mass market offering until 2024 could offer a time cushion for the company to better weather through the near-term industry-specific and macroeconomic headwinds. For one, supply chain constraints stemming from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war – particularly on auto semiconductors – are already showing structural signs of easing. Meanwhile, China’s record-setting household savings of $1.8 trillion YTD, or household savings rate of 30%, accumulated as a pre-emptive measure against looming macroeconomic uncertainties today could also imply a better demand environment in 2024 when cyclical challenges ease. As such, the launch of NIO’s sub-brands scheduled for 2024 could come at an opportune time when the global macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve while the transition to electric continues to gain momentum, offsetting some of the demand risks stemming from increasing competition.</p><h2>Fundamental And Valuation Implications</h2><p>The anticipated growth prospects stemming from NIO’s penetration in mass market opportunities with its planned sub-brands are not going to come at a cheap price. Auto manufacturing is one of the most capital-intensive endeavors out there – especially for those that are vertically integrated.</p><p>Yet, NIO’s “semi-vertically integrated” manufacturing strategy, which involves in-house designed platforms (and ultimately, battery packs) and internal productions at its joint venture facility with Jianghuai Automobile Group (“JAC”) and partly municipal-owned facility at NeoPark, is expected to absorb some of the high ramp-up costs. The anticipated increase in demand for its mass market products is also expected to drive improved volumes to enable better economies of scale, especially if the company adopts a cross-brand platform-sharing strategy, which will likely fast-track its margin expansion trajectory towards and beyond breakeven by mid-decade.</p><p>However, given materialization of said anticipated profits bolstered by NIO’s mass market penetration strategy is still further out into the future, related upside potential may take more time to come into fruition, which inadvertently, means a higher investment risk. This is a particularly critical consideration in today’s market climate for Chinese equities, especially those that are not yet profitable like NIO, given uncertainties spanning regulatory, macroeconomic, and geopolitical challenges.</p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD</a></h2><h3>Overview Of Sub-Brand Strategy</h3><p>Differing from NIO, BYD is already an established automaker with a sprawling presence across China’s passenger vehicle market (and to a smaller extent, the global commercial vehicle market). Having just transitioned completely from the sale of ICE models to only new energy vehicles including hybrid plug-ins earlier this year, BYD has already taken China’s EV market by storm, with monthly sales by unit consistently exceeding six figures and setting new records. It is also one of the few legacy automakers that have managed to penetrate the burgeoning EV market at a profitable rate within a short period.</p><p>Known for its prowess in the mass market vehicle segment, the legacy Chinese automaker is now planning its debut in the premium EV segment in early 2023 via its first sub-brand, “Yangwang” – a contrast to NIO’s longer-term growth strategy. The automaker is slated to debut a premium off-road electric SUV, dubbed the “R1,” as its first product under the Yangwang sub-brand, which will be priced in the RMB 800,000 to RMB 1.5 million range ($110,300 to $200,000+). Similar to BYD’s current new energy offerings, the Yangwang R1 will be offered in a battery-electric (“BEV”) powertrain and plug-in hybrid (“PHEV”) power-train capable of up to 650 hp, with a five- and seven-seater option, and be the “most expensive BYD ever.”</p><p>The company has also recently announced intentions of another new brand that “specializes in professional and personalized identifies” as it looks to “build up its brand matrix” and better penetrate overseas opportunities across Asia, Europe, Latin America and other markets. Although details on the second sub-brand remain limited, it will likely complement Yangwang and help usher BYD into China’s “luxury SUV and sports car markets…[which] are the two most profitable vehicle segments [that it] does not have exposure to” yet. Given BYD is already profitable, the higher-priced premium offerings will likely further reinforce its margin expansion trajectory into the longer-term, and bolster its competitive advantage against premium rivals in the market.</p><h3>The Opportunity</h3><p>While EV penetration in the more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities across China is substantially higher than in smaller cities where lower-priced mass market offerings take a precedent appeal, there is still significant growth headroom remaining in the premium EV segment for BYD. As mentioned in the earlier section, EV penetration in Shanghai already exceeds 50%, while in the broader tier 1 and tier 2 cities it averages more than 36%. Plug-in hybrid SUVs are also of greater appeal, accounting for close to a quarter of China’s new passenger vehicle sales today, while remaining the fastest-growing EV segment, which makes strong tailwinds for BYD’s upcoming Yangwang R1 debut (recall that the R1 comes in both the BEV and PHEV powertrain).</p><p>Market participants also anticipate BYD’s upcoming sub-brands to produce “the kind of EVs fit for the U.S., a market BYD has yet to enter.” This fits with BYD’s overseas aspirations for its passenger EV business over the longer-term, and would be a favorable complement to its existing presence in North America via its commercial EV sales. The U.S. EV market is expected to see a meaningful increase in adoption rates over coming years, thanks to favorable policy support like the latest “Inflation Reduction Act” (“IRA”), as well as broader improvements to EV battery technologies and range capabilities. Specifically, U.S. EV demand is expected to expand at a five-year CAGR of 28% through 2026, with further acceleration into the second half of the decade. Paired with a similar growth outlook in Canada (though at a comparatively nominal volume on a unit basis), Yangwang and other sub-brand offerings could potentially become an overseas share gainer for BYD.</p><h3>Risks To Consider</h3><p>While competition comes to mind as a top risk for automakers, BYD’s reputation as a quality mass market vehicle manufacturer could alleviate some of the said challenges. This is further corroborated by BYD’s pricing power with continued market share gains despite a recent decision to increase its vehicle MSRPs, as opposed to price cuts implemented by Tesla in an attempt to shore up demand.</p><p>Instead, a key concern is BYD’s lack of presence in cutting-edge technological competencies, which premium EVs offered by NIO and Tesla tend to use as key selling points:</p><blockquote>What BYD lacks that others have is more of a digital DNA…BYD is still a hardware company. As good as it is assembling an EV profitably at scale, it hasn’t proven itself to be a tech-driven software-defined technology company. Source: Bloomberg</blockquote><p>While BYD intends for Yangwang to “build a high-end brand with disruptive technologies and products,” there has yet to be any details pertaining to the R1 that would differentiate the premium electric SUV from a digital aspect. Aside from potential ADAS features (which are pretty much standard across premium offerings at this point) speculated from BYD-released images that show the vehicle’s integration of LiDAR sensors, the company has yet to release much information about the vehicle’s performance, range capability, nor technological features. While BYD’s robust balance sheet could fund the development of software capabilities required for differentiation against competing premium offerings, relate innovations would take time to materialize, risking a costly catch-up game in the concentrated premium EV market.</p><h2>Fundamental And Valuation Implications</h2><p>In contrast to NIO, BYD is already a profitable company, with margins set for continued expansion as production ramps up on both its existing and upcoming vehicle models. And as mentioned in the earlier section, BYD’s upcoming foray in China’s premium electric SUV market would be beneficial to its bottom-line given said products would be priced higher to offset near-term ramp-up costs, with greater demand in the lucrative vehicle segment expected to support longer-term margin expansion through scale. With related operating cash flow generation realizable in the immediate term, BYD is also less vulnerable to the investment risks facing NIO as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p>The stock is currently trading at a significant discount of 1.4x forward EV/sales compared to an average of about 4.1x among U.S. counterparts and 1.7x among Chinese EV start-ups. Given its profitable growth prospects both within the immediate- and over the longer-term, BYD makes a reasonable investment at current levels. But like all Chinese equities, BYD faces a slew of risks specific to the cohort, including China’s macroeconomic uncertainties (e.g., property slump, COVID Zero impacts, etc.) and regulatory challenges. Although BYD’s robust balance sheet has made its valuation relatively less vulnerable to the years-long selloff in Chinese equities, existing and potential investors in the stock should remain aware and not overlook said risks.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>Based on the foregoing analysis on NIO and BYD’s longer-term market share expansion strategies, both legacy and start-up Chinese EV makers alike show favorable growth prospects as the global transition to electric continues. While converging strategies will likely introduce further competition within the already highly concentrated EV landscape in China, significant opportunities remain across all vehicle and pricing segments, underscoring the still-nascent nature of the EV industry.</p><p>With NIO being an EV upstart that has already established a reputation for making quality and innovative EVs, and BYD being a legacy automaker that has proven a profitable transition to electric is possible, both companies are well-positioned for further market share gains within and beyond the Chinese EV market. This would accordingly support favorable long-term upside potential for both stocks from current levels, especially BYD which boasts better immediate and future fundamental prospects, though macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory risks will remain an overhang on their performance.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO And BYD Are Converging</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO And BYD Are Converging\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-07 11:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pureplay upstart, and the other a legacy ICE-turned-electric automaker with dibs across the auto supply...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","002594":"比亚迪","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122736605","content_text":"SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pureplay upstart, and the other a legacy ICE-turned-electric automaker with dibs across the auto supply chain.Yet, their paths may be converging as China's EV market opportunities grow.The following analysis will provide an overview of how NIO and BYD's longer-term growth strategies are converging, discuss the risks and opportunities facing each, and gauge their respective valuation implications.While NIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited both started off on a different path when it comes to auto manufacturing, with one being an electric vehicle (“EV”) pureplay start-up and the other being a vertically integrated ICE-turned-electric legacy automaker, they now appear to be converging into each other’s turf as competition ramps up. Not long after NIO announced its intentions to break into the tier 3+ market across China to better serve mass market needs, BYD followed suit with two planned sub-brands to penetrate the premium electric passenger vehicle market.Admittedly, BYD’s market share is substantially larger than NIO’s today – both at home and overseas – while also boasting better fundamentals, which would be supportive of its foray in the premium vehicle segment. Yet, NIO’s penetration into mass-market opportunities could also benefit by driving the volume of scale needed to support its breakeven timeline, which consensus projects to occur by or around mid-decade, while management expects to occur as soon as the third quarter of 2023.The following analysis will go over both Chinese automakers’ respective market share expansion strategies via their planned sub-brands, and gauge the opportunity that exists for both as well as their implications on both stocks’ prospects.NIOOverview Of Sub-Brand StrategyNIO first announced plans for a mass market sub-brand in August 2021, which aligned with its longer-term strategy of building a greater presence in China’s smaller tier 3+ cities and further expand its share of the country’s fast-expanding EV market.As management had discussed during the second quarter, the sub-brand will aim to offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The strategic move is expected to help NIO compete for higher market share, especially in the price segment of Tesla’s (TSLA) Model Y/3, while providing “much better service.” Source: “Can NIO Stock Recover in 2022?”The sub-brand, currently expected to launch in 2024, is also expected to be more competitively priced, with vehicle MSRPs in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000), taking on a broader cohort of mass market rivals including BYD. The sub-brand’s launch timeline also coincides with the start of production schedule for NIO’s first in-house 800-V battery packs, which would “enable longer ranges and faster charging” compared to general mass market offerings that are currently fitted with 400-V battery packs. NIO also boasts a competitive digital portfolio today that includes in-vehicle AI “NOMI,” “NAD” ADAS, and battery swapping technology that will likely be leveraged by its sub-brands either as an embedded or add-on feature to bolster profit margins. Paired with NIO’s recently launched NT 2.0 vehicle platform, which boasts higher profit margins than its predecessor, the company’s sub-brand products are likely well-positioned for attractive manufacturing economics, while also posing a technological appeal to the burgeoning EV market in China.NIO likely has another sub-brand under the wraps as well that is speculated to involve offerings starting at RMB 100,000 ($15,000). This would put it in direct competition against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the current EV market leader in China that has captured the likes of budget-sensitive consumers in the tier 3+ markets with its “Hongguang Mini” priced at an impressive $5,000, and its newest “Baojun KiWi” priced at $11,000.The OpportunityChina currently houses the largest share of the global EV market, accounting for more than half of global EV sales. EV sales in the country has already reached a penetration rate of more than 20% (or more than a quarter counting hybrid plug-ins), with adoption being most prominent in more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai and Beijing. The trends have favored NIO in recent years, as its share of premium EV sales across the tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai have steadily grown – as of last year, the company’s portfolio of electric premium SUVs grabbed a 23% share of the passenger vehicle market priced above RMB 350,000 ($50,000+) in China’s financial hub. With an expectation that consistent growth trends would spill into tier 3 and tier 4 cities over the longer-term, NIO management has made mass market penetration a key initiative in its growth plan, hence the planned sub-brands.Thanks to favorable policy support from the central government, as well as improving range and increasing availability of public charging infrastructure across China, EV sales in the country are starting to gain momentum \"beyond the biggest cities.” Over the past two years, tier 2 and tier 3 cities saw the fastest growth in EV sales, from about 4.5% penetration in 2020 to more than 25% in the current year. Meanwhile, demand from tier 4+ cities with a population ranging from 500,000 to under 1 million have also started to pick-up, with EV sales penetration expanding from under 3.5% in 2020 to nearly 20% in the current year.The remaining growth headroom observed pertaining to EV demand in tier 3+ cities are expected to bode favorably for NIO by the time its sub-brand rolls out in 2024. Between now and then, public charging infrastructure availability is expected to become more prominent in “smaller cities and towns” while “city-level policies that restrict the number of new license plates issues” start to ease in accordance to the nationwide mandate to support EV adoption and decarbonization, which would make strong tailwinds for NIO’s planned mass market offerings.Risks To ConsiderYet, the Chinese EV landscape is also becoming increasingly competitive. And NIO is not the only EV pureplay looking to better capture global market share by expanding into mass market offerings. In addition to BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling as mentioned in the earlier section, EV pureplay rivals like XPeng (XPEV) have also introduced models in the sub-$30,000 price range, while Tesla’s Model 3 remains a favorite with increasingly attractive pricing.As discussed in a previous coverage on NIO, the company risks facing a pricing war in the near-term as competition ramps up, especially as consumer sentiment in the country wanes ahead of mounting macroeconomic uncertainties:Despite NIO’s in line 3Q22 sales, the drumbeat is growing louder on concerns over consumer weakness heading into the fourth quarter. COVID-induced mobility restrictions and production disruptions are hampering both supply and demand functions of the company’s profit and growth prospects, souring investors’ confidence in the stock. EV industry leader Tesla’s recent decision to pull the “pricing lever” in the region is also dialing up risks of a pricing war in China’s increasingly competitive EV market. Source: “Is NIO Stock A Buy After Q3’22 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On COVID Zero.”But the delayed roll-out of NIO’s mass market offering until 2024 could offer a time cushion for the company to better weather through the near-term industry-specific and macroeconomic headwinds. For one, supply chain constraints stemming from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war – particularly on auto semiconductors – are already showing structural signs of easing. Meanwhile, China’s record-setting household savings of $1.8 trillion YTD, or household savings rate of 30%, accumulated as a pre-emptive measure against looming macroeconomic uncertainties today could also imply a better demand environment in 2024 when cyclical challenges ease. As such, the launch of NIO’s sub-brands scheduled for 2024 could come at an opportune time when the global macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve while the transition to electric continues to gain momentum, offsetting some of the demand risks stemming from increasing competition.Fundamental And Valuation ImplicationsThe anticipated growth prospects stemming from NIO’s penetration in mass market opportunities with its planned sub-brands are not going to come at a cheap price. Auto manufacturing is one of the most capital-intensive endeavors out there – especially for those that are vertically integrated.Yet, NIO’s “semi-vertically integrated” manufacturing strategy, which involves in-house designed platforms (and ultimately, battery packs) and internal productions at its joint venture facility with Jianghuai Automobile Group (“JAC”) and partly municipal-owned facility at NeoPark, is expected to absorb some of the high ramp-up costs. The anticipated increase in demand for its mass market products is also expected to drive improved volumes to enable better economies of scale, especially if the company adopts a cross-brand platform-sharing strategy, which will likely fast-track its margin expansion trajectory towards and beyond breakeven by mid-decade.However, given materialization of said anticipated profits bolstered by NIO’s mass market penetration strategy is still further out into the future, related upside potential may take more time to come into fruition, which inadvertently, means a higher investment risk. This is a particularly critical consideration in today’s market climate for Chinese equities, especially those that are not yet profitable like NIO, given uncertainties spanning regulatory, macroeconomic, and geopolitical challenges.BYDOverview Of Sub-Brand StrategyDiffering from NIO, BYD is already an established automaker with a sprawling presence across China’s passenger vehicle market (and to a smaller extent, the global commercial vehicle market). Having just transitioned completely from the sale of ICE models to only new energy vehicles including hybrid plug-ins earlier this year, BYD has already taken China’s EV market by storm, with monthly sales by unit consistently exceeding six figures and setting new records. It is also one of the few legacy automakers that have managed to penetrate the burgeoning EV market at a profitable rate within a short period.Known for its prowess in the mass market vehicle segment, the legacy Chinese automaker is now planning its debut in the premium EV segment in early 2023 via its first sub-brand, “Yangwang” – a contrast to NIO’s longer-term growth strategy. The automaker is slated to debut a premium off-road electric SUV, dubbed the “R1,” as its first product under the Yangwang sub-brand, which will be priced in the RMB 800,000 to RMB 1.5 million range ($110,300 to $200,000+). Similar to BYD’s current new energy offerings, the Yangwang R1 will be offered in a battery-electric (“BEV”) powertrain and plug-in hybrid (“PHEV”) power-train capable of up to 650 hp, with a five- and seven-seater option, and be the “most expensive BYD ever.”The company has also recently announced intentions of another new brand that “specializes in professional and personalized identifies” as it looks to “build up its brand matrix” and better penetrate overseas opportunities across Asia, Europe, Latin America and other markets. Although details on the second sub-brand remain limited, it will likely complement Yangwang and help usher BYD into China’s “luxury SUV and sports car markets…[which] are the two most profitable vehicle segments [that it] does not have exposure to” yet. Given BYD is already profitable, the higher-priced premium offerings will likely further reinforce its margin expansion trajectory into the longer-term, and bolster its competitive advantage against premium rivals in the market.The OpportunityWhile EV penetration in the more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities across China is substantially higher than in smaller cities where lower-priced mass market offerings take a precedent appeal, there is still significant growth headroom remaining in the premium EV segment for BYD. As mentioned in the earlier section, EV penetration in Shanghai already exceeds 50%, while in the broader tier 1 and tier 2 cities it averages more than 36%. Plug-in hybrid SUVs are also of greater appeal, accounting for close to a quarter of China’s new passenger vehicle sales today, while remaining the fastest-growing EV segment, which makes strong tailwinds for BYD’s upcoming Yangwang R1 debut (recall that the R1 comes in both the BEV and PHEV powertrain).Market participants also anticipate BYD’s upcoming sub-brands to produce “the kind of EVs fit for the U.S., a market BYD has yet to enter.” This fits with BYD’s overseas aspirations for its passenger EV business over the longer-term, and would be a favorable complement to its existing presence in North America via its commercial EV sales. The U.S. EV market is expected to see a meaningful increase in adoption rates over coming years, thanks to favorable policy support like the latest “Inflation Reduction Act” (“IRA”), as well as broader improvements to EV battery technologies and range capabilities. Specifically, U.S. EV demand is expected to expand at a five-year CAGR of 28% through 2026, with further acceleration into the second half of the decade. Paired with a similar growth outlook in Canada (though at a comparatively nominal volume on a unit basis), Yangwang and other sub-brand offerings could potentially become an overseas share gainer for BYD.Risks To ConsiderWhile competition comes to mind as a top risk for automakers, BYD’s reputation as a quality mass market vehicle manufacturer could alleviate some of the said challenges. This is further corroborated by BYD’s pricing power with continued market share gains despite a recent decision to increase its vehicle MSRPs, as opposed to price cuts implemented by Tesla in an attempt to shore up demand.Instead, a key concern is BYD’s lack of presence in cutting-edge technological competencies, which premium EVs offered by NIO and Tesla tend to use as key selling points:What BYD lacks that others have is more of a digital DNA…BYD is still a hardware company. As good as it is assembling an EV profitably at scale, it hasn’t proven itself to be a tech-driven software-defined technology company. Source: BloombergWhile BYD intends for Yangwang to “build a high-end brand with disruptive technologies and products,” there has yet to be any details pertaining to the R1 that would differentiate the premium electric SUV from a digital aspect. Aside from potential ADAS features (which are pretty much standard across premium offerings at this point) speculated from BYD-released images that show the vehicle’s integration of LiDAR sensors, the company has yet to release much information about the vehicle’s performance, range capability, nor technological features. While BYD’s robust balance sheet could fund the development of software capabilities required for differentiation against competing premium offerings, relate innovations would take time to materialize, risking a costly catch-up game in the concentrated premium EV market.Fundamental And Valuation ImplicationsIn contrast to NIO, BYD is already a profitable company, with margins set for continued expansion as production ramps up on both its existing and upcoming vehicle models. And as mentioned in the earlier section, BYD’s upcoming foray in China’s premium electric SUV market would be beneficial to its bottom-line given said products would be priced higher to offset near-term ramp-up costs, with greater demand in the lucrative vehicle segment expected to support longer-term margin expansion through scale. With related operating cash flow generation realizable in the immediate term, BYD is also less vulnerable to the investment risks facing NIO as discussed in the earlier section.The stock is currently trading at a significant discount of 1.4x forward EV/sales compared to an average of about 4.1x among U.S. counterparts and 1.7x among Chinese EV start-ups. Given its profitable growth prospects both within the immediate- and over the longer-term, BYD makes a reasonable investment at current levels. But like all Chinese equities, BYD faces a slew of risks specific to the cohort, including China’s macroeconomic uncertainties (e.g., property slump, COVID Zero impacts, etc.) and regulatory challenges. Although BYD’s robust balance sheet has made its valuation relatively less vulnerable to the years-long selloff in Chinese equities, existing and potential investors in the stock should remain aware and not overlook said risks.Final ThoughtsBased on the foregoing analysis on NIO and BYD’s longer-term market share expansion strategies, both legacy and start-up Chinese EV makers alike show favorable growth prospects as the global transition to electric continues. While converging strategies will likely introduce further competition within the already highly concentrated EV landscape in China, significant opportunities remain across all vehicle and pricing segments, underscoring the still-nascent nature of the EV industry.With NIO being an EV upstart that has already established a reputation for making quality and innovative EVs, and BYD being a legacy automaker that has proven a profitable transition to electric is possible, both companies are well-positioned for further market share gains within and beyond the Chinese EV market. This would accordingly support favorable long-term upside potential for both stocks from current levels, especially BYD which boasts better immediate and future fundamental prospects, though macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory risks will remain an overhang on their performance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"BYDDY":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967871033,"gmtCreate":1670301966723,"gmtModify":1676538340619,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967871033","repostId":"2289286198","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962282747,"gmtCreate":1669783289789,"gmtModify":1676538242571,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962282747","repostId":"2287504938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287504938","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669779600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287504938?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple a Must-Own Stock in 2023?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287504938","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's still room for Apple to grow.","content":"<div>\n<p>Every so often, a company comes along and has so much success that many investors end up retiring millionaires by simply going along for the ride. Apple is one of those companies. The tech giant has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/29/is-apple-a-must-own-stock-in-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple a Must-Own Stock in 2023?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple a Must-Own Stock in 2023?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-30 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/29/is-apple-a-must-own-stock-in-2023/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Every so often, a company comes along and has so much success that many investors end up retiring millionaires by simply going along for the ride. Apple is one of those companies. The tech giant has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/29/is-apple-a-must-own-stock-in-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/29/is-apple-a-must-own-stock-in-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287504938","content_text":"Every so often, a company comes along and has so much success that many investors end up retiring millionaires by simply going along for the ride. Apple is one of those companies. The tech giant has seen success matched by very few in history, and it has been rightfully earned. After all, it has world-class products, top-tier brand loyalty, and a bank account that other companies can only dream of having.Past results are great, but a company's future outlook should be driving investing decisions. And although it's the largest public company in the world with a market cap of over $2.4 trillion -- more than Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and Tesla combined -- there's still room for noticeable growth for Apple.Here's why it's a must-own for 2023.Apple is just getting started in the finance industryApple first began its journey into the financial services space in 2014 with the announcement of Apple Pay, which allowed people to pay from their iPhones. However, this move was seen as more about convenience than Apple making its way into the space. Then came 2019 and the announcement of the Apple Card -- a sign Apple was clearly taking a step in that direction.With the Apple Card, Apple relied on Goldman Sachs to approve applications and fund the loans, which is why when they announced Apple Pay Later -- their move into the buy now, pay later space -- it was no longer a mystery whether Apple was serious about becoming a player in the financial services industry. Apple Pay Later is the first time Apple is underwriting and funding loans by itself.Apple has an advantage that no other financial institution can duplicate: Its iPhone is in more than 100 million hands in the U.S. Between the iPhone's world-class technology and the convenience it can provide, the company's play into the financial services space is bound to test even the most formidable of financial technology (fintech) competitors.The iPhone still reigns supremeThe iPhone is arguably the greatest consumer product ever made; it has quite literally changed the world. Apple reportedly spent over $150 million developing the original iPhone, and to say they've reaped the returns on their investments would be the understatement of the century. In its 2022 fiscal year, Apple brought in $394.3 billion in revenue -- roughly $28.5 billion more than it did in 2021. The iPhone accounted for more than half of that, bringing in $205.4 billion.The fact that the iPhone managed to increase its sales in a year defined by inflation not seen in decades is very telling of its power. In fact, this year was the first time ever that more people in the U.S. used an iPhone than an Android phone. That's a remarkable milestone when you consider the iPhone's market share growth and much higher price point.As long as the iPhone is padding Apple's bottom line, there's no reason to believe it won't continue to be one of the biggest cash cows you'll see from any business in any industry.Apple is ramping up its research and developmentApple has historically spent a smaller portion of its revenue on research and development (R&D) than its other Big Tech competitors like Alphabet and Amazon. In 2020, here's how much the three companies spent on R&D and the percentage that was of their net sales:Alphabet: $27.6 billion (15%)Amazon: $42.7 billion (11%)Apple: $18.8 billion (7%)In 2021, Apple's R&D budget increased to $21.9 billion, and in 2022, it jumped up to $26.2 billion -- a company record. Although this still represents a relatively low percentage of Apple's revenue, it's a sign the company isn't getting complacent and is putting more emphasis on taking advantage of potential growth opportunities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962983166,"gmtCreate":1669695084756,"gmtModify":1676538224715,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962983166","repostId":"2287251460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968548984,"gmtCreate":1669265046349,"gmtModify":1676538176542,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968548984","repostId":"2285108728","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961546254,"gmtCreate":1669002741479,"gmtModify":1676538137904,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961546254","repostId":"1102151273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102151273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668992478,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102151273?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102151273","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.</li><li>In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’s recent 13F shows that its Alibaba position remains unchanged in the past quarter.</li><li>This article focuses on the implications of 3 things from its Q3 earnings report: profitability, capital allocation, and valuation.</li><li>And I can see why Munger remains unfazed.</li></ul><p><b>Q3 recap and investment thesis</b></p><p>Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) just released its Q3 2022earnings report(“ER”). Note that its fiscal quarter is shifted from the calendar quarter (so it is its FY Q2). And in the remainder of this article, I will refer to the calendar quarter consistently. By this time, many of the aspects of its Q3 ER have been detailed by other SA authors already. As a result, I will only provide a brief recap of its Q3 results. Then I will quickly zoom in on three things that are less discussed so far in other SA articles.</p><p>Overall, I view the results as solid, especially considering the challenging operating environments in the past quarter. Its Non-GAAP EPS (referred to on a per ADS basis hereafter) dialed in at $1.82, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.17. Topline came in at $29.12B, representing a +3.0% YoY growth but missing consensus estimates slightly by $490M (about 1.6% on a relative basis). Notably, its cloud segment grew 4% YOY and now represents 10% of the total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d0114344dd757db5d5d21a884dd2b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: BABA Q3 ER</p><p>The remainder of this article will concentrate on 3 things from its Q3 ER that are less discussed in other articles. Firstly, I will examine its profitability as measured by ROCE (return on capital employed). You will see that its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges, but still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group. Secondly, I will examine its capital allocation. And the picture is similar here. Admittedly, it simply does not enjoy the flexibility it used to even compared to the beginning of the year. But overall, it is still in a strong financial position and can sustainably fund its various growth initiatives. And finally, the valuation is too compressed to ignore in my view.</p><p>Before we dive in, note that the Daily Journal Corp. recently also disclosed its 13F filing. And as shown in the chart below, Alibaba remains as the 3rdlargest position, representing 14.6% of its equity portfolio. And I can see why Munger remains unfazed after we examine the financials more closely next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677845cdad0cdf5462cfd630779c29cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Dataroma.com</p><p><b>Profitability remains competitive</b></p><p>As detailed in my blog article, for a long-term business owner, return on capital employed (“ROCE”) is the most important metric in my mind. And BABA’s ROCE is shown below. The chart plots its ROCE dating back to 2014 and specifically highlights the changes in its ROCE in 2022 (the last two data points on this chart). As you can see, its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges. To wit, even as recent as Q1 2022, its ROCE hovered around 97% based on quarterly TTM financials. But due to the various headwinds (both macroeconomic and regulatory as to be elaborated later), its ROCE has contracted substantially to the current level of 62.4% based on the Q3 TTM financials.</p><p>However, BABA’s current ROCE still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group as you can see from the second following chart below. As a matter of fact, its current ROCE is only behind Apple (AAPL) in this group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6edb9f34d10e490e6795015d49dda18e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d4cd52c813e053fa637f73ee468287\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><b>Capital allocation flexibility remains strong too</b></p><p>BABA has always been in a strong financial position. Its financial position may be a bit weaker than it used to be due to its commitment to the common prosperity funds, high tax rates, and regulatory changes. To wit, BABA made a pledge of about $15.5B to the Chinese common prosperity fund in the next five years (so about $3.1B per year). At the same time, its TTM operating cash was more than $30.5B as of Q1 2022. And its operating cash flow has decreased to about $20.1B as of TTM Q3, a decrease of more than $10B.</p><p>However, under the overall scheme of things, it is still in a quite strong position. It is effectively debt-free (total interest expenses are only about $500M), it does not pay a dividend, and its maintenance CAPEX is really low (total depreciation is only about 10% of its operating income). And it carries a sizeable net cash position (about $10.1 per share) as shown in the table below, by far the highest level relative to a few other stocks (I will explain why I picked this set of stocks next).</p><p>And this is a good point to move onto its valuation, particularly the impact of the net cash position on its valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c851f218d7749d4f4d8d17853526a8b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</p><p><b>Valuation is even cheaper when adjusted for ROCE</b></p><p>The chart above shows that BABA’s PE is about 11.4x at its current price. Also as aforementioned, there is about $10.0 of cash behind each BABA share, translating into ~11.8% of the current share price. The cash position is actually higher than in Q1 (about $9.3 per share at that time). And adjusted for the cash position, its current PE is only about 10.1x, actually lower than the 11.7x multiple in Q1 despite the decrease in earnings.</p><p>Readers familiar with our approach know that valuation shouldn&#39;t be looked at in isolation. It should be always interpreted together with the quality of the business. And that is what the next chart intends to do. These seemingly random stocks picked for this chart represent some of the largest Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) holdings, and hence, the green dotted line is what I call a Buffett value line. As detailed in my earlier article:</p><blockquote><i>The Buffett’s value line is a line linking A) the origin (a business that has 0 ROCE should worth O PE), and B) Buffett’s largest holding AAPL (which happens to have the highest ROCE among this group of stocks).</i></blockquote><p>Since you always have the choice to buy AAPL, it makes little sense to buy stocks above this line (except for the need for diversification). As seen, BABA now lies below this line (right next to AbbVie (ABBV), another stock we also hold) by a good margin, suggesting a valuation that is more compressed when adjusted for ROCE than on the surface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b16375acb6efb2b50a0b5d855eabcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</p><p><b>Risks and final thoughts</b></p><p>BABA faces many risks. Potential investors should be cautious of the extreme uncertainties here. As detailed by many SA authors (ourselves included), some risks could lead to 100% loss (such as VIE) or large losses (such as delisting). Here, I will limit my discussions to the risks that are more relevant to business fundamentals and operations. I am cautiously optimistic about the company’s business operation outlook in the next 1 or 2 years. The impact of the COVID-19 restrictions in China remains the largest risk in my view. With China’s Zero COVID policy still in place, customer growth in its China Commerce division (TaoBao and Tmall, to name a few) faces an uncertain recovery path. And so do the overall economic conditions in the country.</p><p>To conclude, this article focused on 3 things in BABA’s Q3 ER that are less discussed by other SA authors so far. Its profitability, as measured by ROCE, indeed has suffered strong headwinds, shrinking from ~100% in Q1 to the current 62%. But a ROCE of around 62% is still highly competitive even compared to the FAAMG stocks. Such a robust ROCE, when combined with its capital allocation flexibility, offers healthy growth prospects. For example, its International Commerce Retail segment, including Lazada and AliExpress, offers plenty of upsides. And finally, the valuation, especially when adjusted for its ROCE and sizable cash position, is simply too compressed to make sense the way I see it.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 09:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102151273","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’s recent 13F shows that its Alibaba position remains unchanged in the past quarter.This article focuses on the implications of 3 things from its Q3 earnings report: profitability, capital allocation, and valuation.And I can see why Munger remains unfazed.Q3 recap and investment thesisAlibaba (NYSE: BABA) just released its Q3 2022earnings report(“ER”). Note that its fiscal quarter is shifted from the calendar quarter (so it is its FY Q2). And in the remainder of this article, I will refer to the calendar quarter consistently. By this time, many of the aspects of its Q3 ER have been detailed by other SA authors already. As a result, I will only provide a brief recap of its Q3 results. Then I will quickly zoom in on three things that are less discussed so far in other SA articles.Overall, I view the results as solid, especially considering the challenging operating environments in the past quarter. Its Non-GAAP EPS (referred to on a per ADS basis hereafter) dialed in at $1.82, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.17. Topline came in at $29.12B, representing a +3.0% YoY growth but missing consensus estimates slightly by $490M (about 1.6% on a relative basis). Notably, its cloud segment grew 4% YOY and now represents 10% of the total revenue.Source: BABA Q3 ERThe remainder of this article will concentrate on 3 things from its Q3 ER that are less discussed in other articles. Firstly, I will examine its profitability as measured by ROCE (return on capital employed). You will see that its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges, but still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group. Secondly, I will examine its capital allocation. And the picture is similar here. Admittedly, it simply does not enjoy the flexibility it used to even compared to the beginning of the year. But overall, it is still in a strong financial position and can sustainably fund its various growth initiatives. And finally, the valuation is too compressed to ignore in my view.Before we dive in, note that the Daily Journal Corp. recently also disclosed its 13F filing. And as shown in the chart below, Alibaba remains as the 3rdlargest position, representing 14.6% of its equity portfolio. And I can see why Munger remains unfazed after we examine the financials more closely next.Source: Dataroma.comProfitability remains competitiveAs detailed in my blog article, for a long-term business owner, return on capital employed (“ROCE”) is the most important metric in my mind. And BABA’s ROCE is shown below. The chart plots its ROCE dating back to 2014 and specifically highlights the changes in its ROCE in 2022 (the last two data points on this chart). As you can see, its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges. To wit, even as recent as Q1 2022, its ROCE hovered around 97% based on quarterly TTM financials. But due to the various headwinds (both macroeconomic and regulatory as to be elaborated later), its ROCE has contracted substantially to the current level of 62.4% based on the Q3 TTM financials.However, BABA’s current ROCE still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group as you can see from the second following chart below. As a matter of fact, its current ROCE is only behind Apple (AAPL) in this group.Source: author and Seeking Alpha.Source: author and Seeking Alpha.Capital allocation flexibility remains strong tooBABA has always been in a strong financial position. Its financial position may be a bit weaker than it used to be due to its commitment to the common prosperity funds, high tax rates, and regulatory changes. To wit, BABA made a pledge of about $15.5B to the Chinese common prosperity fund in the next five years (so about $3.1B per year). At the same time, its TTM operating cash was more than $30.5B as of Q1 2022. And its operating cash flow has decreased to about $20.1B as of TTM Q3, a decrease of more than $10B.However, under the overall scheme of things, it is still in a quite strong position. It is effectively debt-free (total interest expenses are only about $500M), it does not pay a dividend, and its maintenance CAPEX is really low (total depreciation is only about 10% of its operating income). And it carries a sizeable net cash position (about $10.1 per share) as shown in the table below, by far the highest level relative to a few other stocks (I will explain why I picked this set of stocks next).And this is a good point to move onto its valuation, particularly the impact of the net cash position on its valuation.Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.Valuation is even cheaper when adjusted for ROCEThe chart above shows that BABA’s PE is about 11.4x at its current price. Also as aforementioned, there is about $10.0 of cash behind each BABA share, translating into ~11.8% of the current share price. The cash position is actually higher than in Q1 (about $9.3 per share at that time). And adjusted for the cash position, its current PE is only about 10.1x, actually lower than the 11.7x multiple in Q1 despite the decrease in earnings.Readers familiar with our approach know that valuation shouldn't be looked at in isolation. It should be always interpreted together with the quality of the business. And that is what the next chart intends to do. These seemingly random stocks picked for this chart represent some of the largest Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) holdings, and hence, the green dotted line is what I call a Buffett value line. As detailed in my earlier article:The Buffett’s value line is a line linking A) the origin (a business that has 0 ROCE should worth O PE), and B) Buffett’s largest holding AAPL (which happens to have the highest ROCE among this group of stocks).Since you always have the choice to buy AAPL, it makes little sense to buy stocks above this line (except for the need for diversification). As seen, BABA now lies below this line (right next to AbbVie (ABBV), another stock we also hold) by a good margin, suggesting a valuation that is more compressed when adjusted for ROCE than on the surface.Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.Risks and final thoughtsBABA faces many risks. Potential investors should be cautious of the extreme uncertainties here. As detailed by many SA authors (ourselves included), some risks could lead to 100% loss (such as VIE) or large losses (such as delisting). Here, I will limit my discussions to the risks that are more relevant to business fundamentals and operations. I am cautiously optimistic about the company’s business operation outlook in the next 1 or 2 years. The impact of the COVID-19 restrictions in China remains the largest risk in my view. With China’s Zero COVID policy still in place, customer growth in its China Commerce division (TaoBao and Tmall, to name a few) faces an uncertain recovery path. And so do the overall economic conditions in the country.To conclude, this article focused on 3 things in BABA’s Q3 ER that are less discussed by other SA authors so far. Its profitability, as measured by ROCE, indeed has suffered strong headwinds, shrinking from ~100% in Q1 to the current 62%. But a ROCE of around 62% is still highly competitive even compared to the FAAMG stocks. Such a robust ROCE, when combined with its capital allocation flexibility, offers healthy growth prospects. For example, its International Commerce Retail segment, including Lazada and AliExpress, offers plenty of upsides. And finally, the valuation, especially when adjusted for its ROCE and sizable cash position, is simply too compressed to make sense the way I see it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963637384,"gmtCreate":1668658500348,"gmtModify":1676538092608,"author":{"id":"3580376639553291","authorId":"3580376639553291","name":"kerukel88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580376639553291","idStr":"3580376639553291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963637384","repostId":"2284813867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}