Profile - To The Moon

Hui Soh

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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2023-05-17
  $SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ wah great news for SQ !! [Smile] [Happy]
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2022-05-19
  Haha 😂 thanks
  Why Pfizer Looks Better Than Moderna as a Long-Term Buy
  In a post-COVID world, there are fewer question marks about Pfizer than there are about Moderna.
  Why Pfizer Looks Better Than Moderna as a Long-Term Buy
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2022-05-13
  ☺️☺️☺️
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2022-05-11
  Haha[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]
  Palantir: Bears Have Been Right, But This Is Another Buying Opportunity
  SummaryShares of Palantir continue to sell off as many considered Q1 2022 a mixed bag after earnings
  Palantir: Bears Have Been Right, But This Is Another Buying Opportunity
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2022-05-05
  [Smile]
  Tesla's Risk Calculus
  ThesisTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors have been on a roller coaster recently. On the positive side, it
  Tesla's Risk Calculus
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2022-04-29
  $OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$👍👍
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2022-04-28
  $Bank of America(BAC)$😭😭
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2021-07-13
  $JD.com(JD)$ComeOn
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2021-07-12
  ? woah
  Cryptocurrency trading shrinks 40% in June as volatility weakens
  With China cracks down on cryptocurrency activities and lower volatility constraining the sector,tra
  Cryptocurrency trading shrinks 40% in June as volatility weakens
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- Hui SohHui Soh
  ·2021-07-12
  $Apple(AAPL)$??
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[Smile] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970857761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023417428,"gmtCreate":1652946948764,"gmtModify":1676535194314,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha 😂 thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Haha 😂 thanks&nbsp;","text":"Haha 😂 thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023417428","repostId":"2236814760","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236814760","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652931315,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236814760?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Pfizer Looks Better Than Moderna as a Long-Term Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236814760","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"In a post-COVID world, there are fewer question marks about Pfizer than there are about Moderna.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>For a stock to be a strong long-term buy, investors need to have confidence that its business will be able to grow indefinitely. COVID-19 stocks that did well during the early stages of the pandemic may have questionable futures heading into next year as concerns around the pandemic subside.</p><p>Both <b>Moderna</b> and <b>Pfizer</b> are examples of companies that continue to thrive today due to the pandemic with their highly successful COVID-19 vaccines generating billions in sales for their respective companies. And while both businesses are doing well of late, Pfizer is the one that stands out to me as the better stock for long-term investors. Here&#39;s why.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F680280%2Fpeople-working-in-a-lab.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Pfizer&#39;s business is much more diverse</h2><p>COVID-19 revenue has resulted in surging revenue for Pfizer. In the first three months of 2022, the company generated money from its COVID-19 products (vaccine and pill) of nearly $15 billion, which is more than its entire revenue totaled a year ago during the same period. The company has arguably become too dependent on COVID-19 vaccine revenue.</p><p>However, Pfizer does have other segments (outside of vaccines and hospital drugs) that generate billions in quarterly revenue, including oncology and internal medicine. By comparison, all of Moderna&#39;s product revenue of $5.9 billion for the period ended March 31 comes from its only commercial product that is authorized for use -- its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax.</p><p>The obvious counterpoint here is that Moderna is a relatively new kid on the block. Prior to COVID-19, it was a relatively unknown company. But even with planning for the future in a post-COVID world, Pfizer has been much more aggressive in its efforts to diversify.</p><h2>Pfizer is expanding its business while Moderna stands still</h2><p>Not only is Pfizer more diverse than Moderna today, that gap is going to widen in the future. That&#39;s because while Moderna has been stockpiling cash, Pfizer has been putting some of its excess money to use. This month, the pharmaceutical giant announced it will acquire <b>Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding</b> for $11.6 billion -- all in cash. Biohaven&#39;s focus is on developing products that target neurological diseases. It already has multiple approved products, and the company generated $318.9 million in sales in the three-month period ended March 31.</p><p>Pfizer has also been involved in other billion-dollar deals. Last year, it acquired Arena Pharmaceuticals, a clinical stage company that is developing therapies for immuno-inflammatory diseases, for $6.7 billion in another all-cash deal. Prior to that, it also paid $2.3 billion for immuno-oncology company Trillium Therapeutics. Pfizer has been making moves to bolster its portfolio and using cash to do so, meaning that investors aren&#39;t getting diluted with these acquisitions. In the meantime, Pfizer&#39;s pipeline and portfolio of drugs expands, making it a more resilient investment for the future.</p><h2>Pfizer is generating a ton more free cash</h2><p>A key factor in being able to fund more deals is having more money coming in. And over the trailing 12 months, Pfizer has been generating much more free cash than Moderna:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2774b1a206ce9ceabd99e0e4e40ec2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PFE Free Cash Flow data by YCharts</span></p><p>This can go a long way in funding more acquisitions. It also enables Pfizer to pay a dividend -- something that Moderna doesn&#39;t currently do. And at 3.2%, Pfizer&#39;s dividend yield is more than double the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> average of less than 1.4%.</p><h2>The no-brainer buy is Pfizer</h2><p>Overall, Pfizer has a more diverse business than Moderna and it generates more free cash, making it a more stable buy over the long haul. Plus, with a high-yielding dividend to add on top of that, there&#39;s also plenty of incentive for investors to just buy and hold this top healthcare stock for years.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Pfizer Looks Better Than Moderna as a Long-Term Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Pfizer Looks Better Than Moderna as a Long-Term Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/18/why-pfizer-looks-better-than-moderna-as-a-long-ter/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For a stock to be a strong long-term buy, investors need to have confidence that its business will be able to grow indefinitely. COVID-19 stocks that did well during the early stages of the pandemic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/18/why-pfizer-looks-better-than-moderna-as-a-long-ter/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/18/why-pfizer-looks-better-than-moderna-as-a-long-ter/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236814760","content_text":"For a stock to be a strong long-term buy, investors need to have confidence that its business will be able to grow indefinitely. COVID-19 stocks that did well during the early stages of the pandemic may have questionable futures heading into next year as concerns around the pandemic subside.Both Moderna and Pfizer are examples of companies that continue to thrive today due to the pandemic with their highly successful COVID-19 vaccines generating billions in sales for their respective companies. And while both businesses are doing well of late, Pfizer is the one that stands out to me as the better stock for long-term investors. Here's why.Image source: Getty Images.Pfizer's business is much more diverseCOVID-19 revenue has resulted in surging revenue for Pfizer. In the first three months of 2022, the company generated money from its COVID-19 products (vaccine and pill) of nearly $15 billion, which is more than its entire revenue totaled a year ago during the same period. The company has arguably become too dependent on COVID-19 vaccine revenue.However, Pfizer does have other segments (outside of vaccines and hospital drugs) that generate billions in quarterly revenue, including oncology and internal medicine. By comparison, all of Moderna's product revenue of $5.9 billion for the period ended March 31 comes from its only commercial product that is authorized for use -- its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax.The obvious counterpoint here is that Moderna is a relatively new kid on the block. Prior to COVID-19, it was a relatively unknown company. But even with planning for the future in a post-COVID world, Pfizer has been much more aggressive in its efforts to diversify.Pfizer is expanding its business while Moderna stands stillNot only is Pfizer more diverse than Moderna today, that gap is going to widen in the future. That's because while Moderna has been stockpiling cash, Pfizer has been putting some of its excess money to use. This month, the pharmaceutical giant announced it will acquire Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding for $11.6 billion -- all in cash. Biohaven's focus is on developing products that target neurological diseases. It already has multiple approved products, and the company generated $318.9 million in sales in the three-month period ended March 31.Pfizer has also been involved in other billion-dollar deals. Last year, it acquired Arena Pharmaceuticals, a clinical stage company that is developing therapies for immuno-inflammatory diseases, for $6.7 billion in another all-cash deal. Prior to that, it also paid $2.3 billion for immuno-oncology company Trillium Therapeutics. Pfizer has been making moves to bolster its portfolio and using cash to do so, meaning that investors aren't getting diluted with these acquisitions. In the meantime, Pfizer's pipeline and portfolio of drugs expands, making it a more resilient investment for the future.Pfizer is generating a ton more free cashA key factor in being able to fund more deals is having more money coming in. And over the trailing 12 months, Pfizer has been generating much more free cash than Moderna:PFE Free Cash Flow data by YChartsThis can go a long way in funding more acquisitions. It also enables Pfizer to pay a dividend -- something that Moderna doesn't currently do. And at 3.2%, Pfizer's dividend yield is more than double the S&P 500 average of less than 1.4%.The no-brainer buy is PfizerOverall, Pfizer has a more diverse business than Moderna and it generates more free cash, making it a more stable buy over the long haul. Plus, with a high-yielding dividend to add on top of that, there's also plenty of incentive for investors to just buy and hold this top healthcare stock for years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067150660,"gmtCreate":1652428265151,"gmtModify":1676535099089,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"☺️☺️☺️","listText":"☺️☺️☺️","text":"☺️☺️☺️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067150660","repostId":"1113532572","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064073012,"gmtCreate":1652257023636,"gmtModify":1676535063104,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Haha[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Haha[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064073012","repostId":"2234695278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2234695278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652248744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2234695278?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-11 13:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Bears Have Been Right, But This Is Another Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234695278","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryShares of Palantir continue to sell off as many considered Q1 2022 a mixed bag after earnings","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Shares of Palantir continue to sell off as many considered Q1 2022 a mixed bag after earnings were released.</li><li>Palantir is well positioned with more than $2 billion in cash and $0 of debt on the books and can sustain its current net losses for more than 5 years.</li><li>Palantir continues to add more clients, deals, and billings which should keep them on track for their 30% revenue increase annual targets.</li><li>Palantir has a fortress balance sheet in addition to seeing their financials improve as there is a clear path to GAAP profitability in the future.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23d0f121f38325521c0b8ebbb42b26b3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>Shares of Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) have been decimated as multiples from growth companies contracted during the massive correction we&#39;re living through. PLTR reported Q1 2022 earnings into a market that continues to sell off and a Nasdaq that&#39;s officially in a bear market. Prior to the conference call ending or investors reading/digesting the quarterly report, shares of PLTR plunged by over 15%, breaching the $8 mark. Shares have lost 73.68% from their 52-week highs and are now trading below their direct listing price from the fall of 2020. It could be a while before the pain ends, but PLTR is a long-term investment for me, and I am continuing to dollar cost average into my position. I invested in PLTR right after it went public and continued to buy shares on the way up and also on the way down.</p><p>The analyst community was looking for PLTR to earn an adjusted $0.04 per share on $443.51 million, and PLTR delivered $0.02 on $446 million of revenue. The market&#39;s reaction is certainly reflected in PLTR&#39;s steep sell-off as it&#39;s nothing but a sea of red. When you go under the surface of the headlines, PLTR is firing on all cylinders as overall revenue grew 31% YoY, their customer base increased by 86% YoY as PLTR added new customers in Q1 2022, and commercial revenue grew 54% YoY. The funny thing is that the market used to be worried about commercial clients and revenue. The blemish on PLTR&#39;s track record was that its revenue mix was primarily dominated by government revenue. In Q1 2022, commercial revenue grew to $205 million, accounting for 45.96% of their quarterly revenue.</p><p><b>Palantir&#39;s Government And Commercial Sectors Continue To Grow During This Volatile Environment</b></p><p>PLTR has demonstrated a 30% CAGR over the past 8 years in its U.S government revenue growth. Over the previous 3 years, PLTR has grown its Q1 revenue from the government side by $112 million (48.91%) in 2021 and another $105 million (30.79%) in 2022. Over the past two years, PLTR&#39;s Q1 government revenue has more than doubled as it has grown by $123 million or 104.24%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edeff65806fe98dfc4be733eed7a04b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Steven Fiorillo, Palantir</span></p><p>On the commercial side, PLTR has certainly answered everyone&#39;s questions about growing its customer base and revenue, regardless of whether the government side still represents more than 50% of quarterly revenue. Over the previous 2 years, PLTR&#39;s commercial business has grown by $94 million (84.69%) in Q1 from $111 million to $205 million in revenue. In 2021, PLTR grew its Q1 revenue by $22 million (19.82%) YoY but in Q1 of 2022 saw its commercial business ramp up by $72 billion (54.14%) YoY. The critical aspect to keep in mind is that PLTR wasn&#39;t widely known outside of the government sector, and even fewer companies knew that their product offerings were applicable to commercial entities. Q1 of 2022 represents validation that businesses on the commercial side are implementing PLTR&#39;s products as their commercial customer count grew YoY by 207% to 184 clients from 60 clients.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b41ad985afd3bbf6c3cc754c4d3363\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Steven Fiorillo, Palantir</span></p><p>It looks like PLTR will be reporting its total customer count as a combined figure which includes both the government and commercial segments. These numbers are critical to PLTR&#39;s future growth and indicate a bright future. Over the previous year, PLTR has added 128 new customers, growing its client base by 86% YoY. Going back an additional quarter, PLTR has added 138 clients, increasing its customers by 99.28% over the previous 5 quarters. While these figures are important, the critical aspect is that PLTR has consistently added more customers QoQ in this period. In Q1 2021, PLTR added 10 customers, then 20 in Q2 2021, 34 in both Q3 and Q4 of 2021, and 40 new customers in this recent quarter.</p><p>More customers correlate to more revenue, and PLTR is thriving in a market full of uncertainty. PLTR&#39;s average revenue per top 20 customers increased by 24% YoY to $45 million from $36 million on the commercial side. In Q1 2022, PLTR closed 208 deals compared to 81 in Q1 of 2021, which is an increase of 157%, while their billings jumped by 35% to $490 million from $362 million. Last year, PLTR had $2.8 billion in remaining deal value, which has increased by 26% to $3.5 billion in Q1 2022, while remaining performance obligations increased 86% YoY to $1.2 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76987fc553759654847bf815748a9ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p><b>The Investment Community Should Take A Closer Look At Q1 2022&#39;s Financials As There Is A Clear Path To Operational Profitability</b></p><p>The current market dynamics are unfavorable toward growth companies that are not GAAP profitable, creating a sea of red in many portfolios. Just because a company doesn&#39;t show a profit doesn&#39;t mean their headed toward bankruptcy, and analyzing the financials becomes increasingly important to determine if there is a path to profitability or if you&#39;re invested in a losing hand.</p><p>PLTR&#39;s income statement continues to strengthen and tells an interesting story. In Q1 YoY PLTR added $105.12 million of revenue while their cost of revenue only increased by $20.3 million. Gross profit in Q1 2022 increased by $84.83 million, and PLTR&#39;s gross profit margin slightly increased by just over ½ of a percentage point. From a cost of revenue perspective, PLTR isn&#39;t foolishly spending capital on growing its top line and has slightly increased its gross profit margin, which indicates a strong demand for its services. PLTR&#39;s operating expenses increased by $10.26 million (2.7%) YoY, while they experienced $105.12 million in revenue growth. Operationally PLTR has found its sweet spot as R&amp;D, and general and administrative expenses declined YoY, allowing PLTR to allocate more capital to its sales and marketing segments. Overall, YoY PLTR&#39;s loss from operations declined by -$74.58 million (-65.41%) as they finished Q1 2022, losing -$39.44 million.</p><p>Based on the current figures, if PLTR grows its revenue YoY in Q1 of 2023 by 30% to $580.26 million and its cost of revenue increases at the same rate, it would come in at $120.25 million for a gross profit of $460 million. If total operating expenses also increased at the same rate YoY, it would come in at $401.93 million. This would generate operational profitability in Q1 2023 to the tune of $40.19 million. There is certainly a path to operational profitability over the next year and a road to profitability on a GAAP basis in the back half of 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cefc1f546b70685a59fb48402dab5f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>Not all growth companies are built the same, and PLTR has a fortress of a balance sheet. PLTR has $2.27 billion of cash on hand. This allows PLTR to grow without tapping the debt markets, and based on their -$101.38 million net loss in Q1, their cash stockpile could absorb these losses for more than 5 years. PLTR&#39;s net loss has also been declining and could turn to a net profit sometime in 2023. Based on PLTR&#39;s rate of growth, margins, and cash on hand, they are on the correct course. PLTR doesn&#39;t need to focus solely on generating net positive earnings and can continue to build the best products, grow its customer base, and grow its top line while maintaining consistent margins. PLTR is already profitable on an adjusted and normalized FCF methodology and should become profitable on a GAAP net income basis well before its cash stockpile is jeopardized.</p><p>When you look at PLTR&#39;s liabilities, there is a significant line item that is non-existent. PLTR is debt-free, and its total liabilities are just under $1 billion. 100% of PLTR&#39;s current FCF and future net income can be allocated freely without having to budget for interest payments or the repayment of debt. I can&#39;t stress how important this is to me, as PLTR is building its company without a major liability that has crippled many other companies in the past.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd95427d40322feb0065fa7670be087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p><b>Why I believe Palantir&#39;s Future Looks Bright Even Though The Chart Is Downright Frightening</b></p><p>Yes, PLTR&#39;s share price can continue to fall, but the likelihood of going to $0 in the short term is not worth discussing. As I outlined in the previous section, PLTR has $0 in debt and enough cash on hand to sustain operations at their current rate for more than 5 years. The bears have been correct the entire way down, and even though my conviction hasn&#39;t changed, I have been wrong. Maybe shares go to $5, I don&#39;t have a crystal ball, but what I can say is I am treating this as an opportunity. At this point, you either believe PLTR has a bright future ahead of them, or they are in serious financial distress. Reading through PLTR&#39;s financials, they are not in financial distress, and based on their growth, we could see GAAP profitability next year. My investment time horizon has always been out to 2030 as I believe PLTR will become the most important software company behind Microsoft (MSFT). I can withstand the short-term pain because I am more concerned with what PLTR&#39;s share price is in 2025 and 2027, not in 2022.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8914186e3fd367f444c8f42eab2cb9ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"193\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>I don&#39;t believe the market realizes or understands the potential of Foundry. PLTR partners with their clients to build industry-specific platforms that can be sold to their clients and partners, replicating what PLTR did with Airbus through Skywise. Shyam Sankar touched on this during the conference call when he outlined that Airbus had rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower which was a suite built on top of Foundry&#39;s application development infrastructure. What he didn&#39;t mention is that PLTR has been replicating this within different industries.</p><p>PLTR partnered with Jacobs Engineering Group (J) to leverage its existing O&amp;M portfolio and proprietary machine learning modules and wastewater process optimization tools to develop a dynamic management solution suite on PLTR&#39;s Foundry system. J and PLTR are planning other joint technical and programmatic initiatives to serve U.S. federal government customers. J is the ideal partner for PLTR as they provide consulting, technical, scientific, and project delivery services for the government and private sectors in the United States, Europe, Canada, India, rest of Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Mexico, the Middle East, and Africa. PLTR also partnered with Hyundai Heavy Industries to form a data joint venture. This will allow the two entities to build a new big data platform for Hyundai Heavy Industries. Hyundai Heavy Industries is a $5 billion South Korean company that has grown into the world&#39;s leading heavy industries organization which has diversified from shipbuilding to offshore &amp; engineering, Naval &amp; Special Ships, and engine &amp; machinery. Hyundai Heavy is a global entity with partnerships throughout the globe. Based on the agreement, Hyundai Heavy Industries and PLTR will jointly build a big data platform for the Group&#39;s key affiliates related to shipbuilding &amp; offshore engineering, energy, and industrial machinery.</p><p>We learned that PLTR closed a renewal deal with a Fortune 100 company for over $150 million in April. We also learned that PLTR&#39;s hospital operations Suite as a module is now covering over 37,000 beds throughout U.S hospitals which is up from 1,000 beds on 1/1/22. On the government side, PLTR has expanded its partnership with the CDC, and was awarded a framework agreement in Germany for Gotham and Foundry with an initial order placed from the Bavarian Police. The U.K Royal Navy closed a $10 million expansion with PLTR to cover strategic workforce planning and supply chain management.</p><p>PLTR has launched 8 new products since going public, which include Edge AI, HyperAuto, Cosmos, Apollo for customers SaaS, MetaConstellation, Pipeline builder, OPIs, and Titan. The most important aspect is PLTR is building software to solve the world&#39;s most critical problems, and in doing so, their total addressable market is expanding. PLTR continues to deepen its government relationships while building its commercial business because of the success its solutions create.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7b7f6d7bd9cedfdf4c21006ca0fbf61\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>The proof is in the numbers. On the government side, PLTR has a long-term trend from 2013-to 2021 of driving growth at a 30% rate from the U.S government. PLTR&#39;s total customers wouldn&#39;t have grown by 86% YoY to 277 if their products weren&#39;t impactful to government entities and individual organizations. The big contention in Q4 2021 was that the government customer count didn&#39;t increase throughout the year. In Q1 2022, PLTR&#39;s government customer count grew by 3 clients to 93 total government customers. We&#39;re seeing more deals closed, elevated levels of billings, and larger average revenue from PLTR&#39;s top customers. These critical aspects tell a promising story for PLTR&#39;s future.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>The herd mentality is perplexing; everyone wants to buy on the way up because they are afraid of missing out, but on the way down, many just classify PLTR as a bad stock. If you&#39;re not doing your own due diligence or understanding why you&#39;re making an investment in a company, maybe index funds are a better investment for you. Investing is a two-way street and allocating capital to individual equities comes with additional risks.</p><p>PLTR has always been a long-term buy-and-hold for me. Since PLTR went public, I bought my initial shares for under $10, I have purchased shares on the way up and on the way down. I added shares this morning and will be adding shares in the future. I am not worried about the share price in 2022 or 2023; while I would rather see this position in the black when I look at my account, I look at the current price weakness as an opportunity. Every metric I care about points to future growth while their losses narrow. PLTR has over $2 billion in cash on hand and can sustain its current quarterly losses for more than 5 years. This is a company with $0 in debt, and it&#39;s trading as if bankruptcy is in its future. I couldn&#39;t tell you when the markets will turn, but PLTR won&#39;t be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the companies left in the cold. I believe these prices will look like a missed opportunity for many several years into the future. While PLTR may not get back to $20 in 2022, I have no doubt that this is a multi-bagger investment from its current level, and eventually, the market sentiment on PLTR will change.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Bears Have Been Right, But This Is Another Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Bears Have Been Right, But This Is Another Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-11 13:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509441-palantir-bears-have-been-right-but-this-is-another-buying-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShares of Palantir continue to sell off as many considered Q1 2022 a mixed bag after earnings were released.Palantir is well positioned with more than $2 billion in cash and $0 of debt on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509441-palantir-bears-have-been-right-but-this-is-another-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4509441-palantir-bears-have-been-right-but-this-is-another-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2234695278","content_text":"SummaryShares of Palantir continue to sell off as many considered Q1 2022 a mixed bag after earnings were released.Palantir is well positioned with more than $2 billion in cash and $0 of debt on the books and can sustain its current net losses for more than 5 years.Palantir continues to add more clients, deals, and billings which should keep them on track for their 30% revenue increase annual targets.Palantir has a fortress balance sheet in addition to seeing their financials improve as there is a clear path to GAAP profitability in the future.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesShares of Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) have been decimated as multiples from growth companies contracted during the massive correction we're living through. PLTR reported Q1 2022 earnings into a market that continues to sell off and a Nasdaq that's officially in a bear market. Prior to the conference call ending or investors reading/digesting the quarterly report, shares of PLTR plunged by over 15%, breaching the $8 mark. Shares have lost 73.68% from their 52-week highs and are now trading below their direct listing price from the fall of 2020. It could be a while before the pain ends, but PLTR is a long-term investment for me, and I am continuing to dollar cost average into my position. I invested in PLTR right after it went public and continued to buy shares on the way up and also on the way down.The analyst community was looking for PLTR to earn an adjusted $0.04 per share on $443.51 million, and PLTR delivered $0.02 on $446 million of revenue. The market's reaction is certainly reflected in PLTR's steep sell-off as it's nothing but a sea of red. When you go under the surface of the headlines, PLTR is firing on all cylinders as overall revenue grew 31% YoY, their customer base increased by 86% YoY as PLTR added new customers in Q1 2022, and commercial revenue grew 54% YoY. The funny thing is that the market used to be worried about commercial clients and revenue. The blemish on PLTR's track record was that its revenue mix was primarily dominated by government revenue. In Q1 2022, commercial revenue grew to $205 million, accounting for 45.96% of their quarterly revenue.Palantir's Government And Commercial Sectors Continue To Grow During This Volatile EnvironmentPLTR has demonstrated a 30% CAGR over the past 8 years in its U.S government revenue growth. Over the previous 3 years, PLTR has grown its Q1 revenue from the government side by $112 million (48.91%) in 2021 and another $105 million (30.79%) in 2022. Over the past two years, PLTR's Q1 government revenue has more than doubled as it has grown by $123 million or 104.24%.Steven Fiorillo, PalantirOn the commercial side, PLTR has certainly answered everyone's questions about growing its customer base and revenue, regardless of whether the government side still represents more than 50% of quarterly revenue. Over the previous 2 years, PLTR's commercial business has grown by $94 million (84.69%) in Q1 from $111 million to $205 million in revenue. In 2021, PLTR grew its Q1 revenue by $22 million (19.82%) YoY but in Q1 of 2022 saw its commercial business ramp up by $72 billion (54.14%) YoY. The critical aspect to keep in mind is that PLTR wasn't widely known outside of the government sector, and even fewer companies knew that their product offerings were applicable to commercial entities. Q1 of 2022 represents validation that businesses on the commercial side are implementing PLTR's products as their commercial customer count grew YoY by 207% to 184 clients from 60 clients.Steven Fiorillo, PalantirIt looks like PLTR will be reporting its total customer count as a combined figure which includes both the government and commercial segments. These numbers are critical to PLTR's future growth and indicate a bright future. Over the previous year, PLTR has added 128 new customers, growing its client base by 86% YoY. Going back an additional quarter, PLTR has added 138 clients, increasing its customers by 99.28% over the previous 5 quarters. While these figures are important, the critical aspect is that PLTR has consistently added more customers QoQ in this period. In Q1 2021, PLTR added 10 customers, then 20 in Q2 2021, 34 in both Q3 and Q4 of 2021, and 40 new customers in this recent quarter.More customers correlate to more revenue, and PLTR is thriving in a market full of uncertainty. PLTR's average revenue per top 20 customers increased by 24% YoY to $45 million from $36 million on the commercial side. In Q1 2022, PLTR closed 208 deals compared to 81 in Q1 of 2021, which is an increase of 157%, while their billings jumped by 35% to $490 million from $362 million. Last year, PLTR had $2.8 billion in remaining deal value, which has increased by 26% to $3.5 billion in Q1 2022, while remaining performance obligations increased 86% YoY to $1.2 billion.PalantirThe Investment Community Should Take A Closer Look At Q1 2022's Financials As There Is A Clear Path To Operational ProfitabilityThe current market dynamics are unfavorable toward growth companies that are not GAAP profitable, creating a sea of red in many portfolios. Just because a company doesn't show a profit doesn't mean their headed toward bankruptcy, and analyzing the financials becomes increasingly important to determine if there is a path to profitability or if you're invested in a losing hand.PLTR's income statement continues to strengthen and tells an interesting story. In Q1 YoY PLTR added $105.12 million of revenue while their cost of revenue only increased by $20.3 million. Gross profit in Q1 2022 increased by $84.83 million, and PLTR's gross profit margin slightly increased by just over ½ of a percentage point. From a cost of revenue perspective, PLTR isn't foolishly spending capital on growing its top line and has slightly increased its gross profit margin, which indicates a strong demand for its services. PLTR's operating expenses increased by $10.26 million (2.7%) YoY, while they experienced $105.12 million in revenue growth. Operationally PLTR has found its sweet spot as R&D, and general and administrative expenses declined YoY, allowing PLTR to allocate more capital to its sales and marketing segments. Overall, YoY PLTR's loss from operations declined by -$74.58 million (-65.41%) as they finished Q1 2022, losing -$39.44 million.Based on the current figures, if PLTR grows its revenue YoY in Q1 of 2023 by 30% to $580.26 million and its cost of revenue increases at the same rate, it would come in at $120.25 million for a gross profit of $460 million. If total operating expenses also increased at the same rate YoY, it would come in at $401.93 million. This would generate operational profitability in Q1 2023 to the tune of $40.19 million. There is certainly a path to operational profitability over the next year and a road to profitability on a GAAP basis in the back half of 2023.PalantirNot all growth companies are built the same, and PLTR has a fortress of a balance sheet. PLTR has $2.27 billion of cash on hand. This allows PLTR to grow without tapping the debt markets, and based on their -$101.38 million net loss in Q1, their cash stockpile could absorb these losses for more than 5 years. PLTR's net loss has also been declining and could turn to a net profit sometime in 2023. Based on PLTR's rate of growth, margins, and cash on hand, they are on the correct course. PLTR doesn't need to focus solely on generating net positive earnings and can continue to build the best products, grow its customer base, and grow its top line while maintaining consistent margins. PLTR is already profitable on an adjusted and normalized FCF methodology and should become profitable on a GAAP net income basis well before its cash stockpile is jeopardized.When you look at PLTR's liabilities, there is a significant line item that is non-existent. PLTR is debt-free, and its total liabilities are just under $1 billion. 100% of PLTR's current FCF and future net income can be allocated freely without having to budget for interest payments or the repayment of debt. I can't stress how important this is to me, as PLTR is building its company without a major liability that has crippled many other companies in the past.PalantirWhy I believe Palantir's Future Looks Bright Even Though The Chart Is Downright FrighteningYes, PLTR's share price can continue to fall, but the likelihood of going to $0 in the short term is not worth discussing. As I outlined in the previous section, PLTR has $0 in debt and enough cash on hand to sustain operations at their current rate for more than 5 years. The bears have been correct the entire way down, and even though my conviction hasn't changed, I have been wrong. Maybe shares go to $5, I don't have a crystal ball, but what I can say is I am treating this as an opportunity. At this point, you either believe PLTR has a bright future ahead of them, or they are in serious financial distress. Reading through PLTR's financials, they are not in financial distress, and based on their growth, we could see GAAP profitability next year. My investment time horizon has always been out to 2030 as I believe PLTR will become the most important software company behind Microsoft (MSFT). I can withstand the short-term pain because I am more concerned with what PLTR's share price is in 2025 and 2027, not in 2022.Seeking AlphaI don't believe the market realizes or understands the potential of Foundry. PLTR partners with their clients to build industry-specific platforms that can be sold to their clients and partners, replicating what PLTR did with Airbus through Skywise. Shyam Sankar touched on this during the conference call when he outlined that Airbus had rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower which was a suite built on top of Foundry's application development infrastructure. What he didn't mention is that PLTR has been replicating this within different industries.PLTR partnered with Jacobs Engineering Group (J) to leverage its existing O&M portfolio and proprietary machine learning modules and wastewater process optimization tools to develop a dynamic management solution suite on PLTR's Foundry system. J and PLTR are planning other joint technical and programmatic initiatives to serve U.S. federal government customers. J is the ideal partner for PLTR as they provide consulting, technical, scientific, and project delivery services for the government and private sectors in the United States, Europe, Canada, India, rest of Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Mexico, the Middle East, and Africa. PLTR also partnered with Hyundai Heavy Industries to form a data joint venture. This will allow the two entities to build a new big data platform for Hyundai Heavy Industries. Hyundai Heavy Industries is a $5 billion South Korean company that has grown into the world's leading heavy industries organization which has diversified from shipbuilding to offshore & engineering, Naval & Special Ships, and engine & machinery. Hyundai Heavy is a global entity with partnerships throughout the globe. Based on the agreement, Hyundai Heavy Industries and PLTR will jointly build a big data platform for the Group's key affiliates related to shipbuilding & offshore engineering, energy, and industrial machinery.We learned that PLTR closed a renewal deal with a Fortune 100 company for over $150 million in April. We also learned that PLTR's hospital operations Suite as a module is now covering over 37,000 beds throughout U.S hospitals which is up from 1,000 beds on 1/1/22. On the government side, PLTR has expanded its partnership with the CDC, and was awarded a framework agreement in Germany for Gotham and Foundry with an initial order placed from the Bavarian Police. The U.K Royal Navy closed a $10 million expansion with PLTR to cover strategic workforce planning and supply chain management.PLTR has launched 8 new products since going public, which include Edge AI, HyperAuto, Cosmos, Apollo for customers SaaS, MetaConstellation, Pipeline builder, OPIs, and Titan. The most important aspect is PLTR is building software to solve the world's most critical problems, and in doing so, their total addressable market is expanding. PLTR continues to deepen its government relationships while building its commercial business because of the success its solutions create.PalantirThe proof is in the numbers. On the government side, PLTR has a long-term trend from 2013-to 2021 of driving growth at a 30% rate from the U.S government. PLTR's total customers wouldn't have grown by 86% YoY to 277 if their products weren't impactful to government entities and individual organizations. The big contention in Q4 2021 was that the government customer count didn't increase throughout the year. In Q1 2022, PLTR's government customer count grew by 3 clients to 93 total government customers. We're seeing more deals closed, elevated levels of billings, and larger average revenue from PLTR's top customers. These critical aspects tell a promising story for PLTR's future.ConclusionThe herd mentality is perplexing; everyone wants to buy on the way up because they are afraid of missing out, but on the way down, many just classify PLTR as a bad stock. If you're not doing your own due diligence or understanding why you're making an investment in a company, maybe index funds are a better investment for you. Investing is a two-way street and allocating capital to individual equities comes with additional risks.PLTR has always been a long-term buy-and-hold for me. Since PLTR went public, I bought my initial shares for under $10, I have purchased shares on the way up and on the way down. I added shares this morning and will be adding shares in the future. I am not worried about the share price in 2022 or 2023; while I would rather see this position in the black when I look at my account, I look at the current price weakness as an opportunity. Every metric I care about points to future growth while their losses narrow. PLTR has over $2 billion in cash on hand and can sustain its current quarterly losses for more than 5 years. This is a company with $0 in debt, and it's trading as if bankruptcy is in its future. I couldn't tell you when the markets will turn, but PLTR won't be one of the companies left in the cold. I believe these prices will look like a missed opportunity for many several years into the future. While PLTR may not get back to $20 in 2022, I have no doubt that this is a multi-bagger investment from its current level, and eventually, the market sentiment on PLTR will change.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068341528,"gmtCreate":1651724106252,"gmtModify":1676534957392,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068341528","repostId":"2233004021","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2233004021","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651719928,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2233004021?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-05 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Risk Calculus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2233004021","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"ThesisTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors have been on a roller coaster recently. On the positive side, it","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors have been on a roller coaster recently. On the positive side, its 2022 Q1 was another record-setting quarter. It delivered better-than-expected results pretty much across the board.</p><p>It delivered 310,000 vehicles despite market concerns over supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns in Shanghai. Both topline and bottom line also showed healthy growth and the operating margin expanded to a record 19%. After reporting such up beating numbers, the stock price rallied by more than 10% the next trading day on April 21 to almost $1,100.</p><p>However, on the other side, a few negative developments sent the stock price back to the $850 level. Note that the price information was taken during the trading session on Monday, May 2. With the large market volatilities these days, the prices may have changed a bit when you read this article. First, the overall market sentiment had been dominated by fear last week after TSLA’s earnings release. With major institutions like Bank of America trimming S&amp;P 500 targets and forecasting an increased possibility of a recession ahead, all major indices suffered a large correction, and the S&amp;P 500 lost a whopping 3.6% in a single day last Friday. Second, Elon Musk unloaded about $8B worth of his shares in lots priced between $870 to $1,000 according to filings released on April 29, adding more fuel to the fire. Unfortunately, such events have happened before and very likely will happen again. Another recent example involved polling his 62.5 million <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> followers whether he should reduce his holdings or not. And we all know what transpired next – the stock price fell by more than 17% to the $1,000 level during that week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971cf85239ad980dea02fd27c1849c44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yahoo Finance</p><p>Looking forward, we see both some additional uncertainties ahead and also some catalysts to support its production ramping up and profitability growth. Overall, we see the investment feature a positive return profile despite large variance. Specifically,</p><ul><li>Looking past the above short-term price dramas, there are a few additional key uncertainties ahead for TSLA investors. Both the Texas and Berlin factories are in earlier ramp up phase, and their production goals may be delayed due to variable uncertainties (supply chain issues, labor shortage, material shortage, et al). Its Shanghai factory is operating on partial capacity and its status hinges on the COVID situation in the city. Also, as a key port city, Shanghai can also interrupt TSLA’s overall supply chain in China.</li><li>But at the same time, we also see positive catalysts that support a favorable risk/return profile. The investment would feature breakeven odds return even assuming a relatively small probability (about 16%) for management to deliver their growth expectations of about 50% CAGR.</li><li>More importantly, TSLA achieved an important milestone for future capacity growth in the last quarter: the inhouse production of 4680 battery cells. In April 2022, TSLA delivered the first Model Y with 4680 in-house made cells, single-piece front body castings and structural battery packs. Ultimately, Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg will be able to produce Model Ys using both structural packs with 4680 cells as well as non-structural packs with 2170 cells. Inhouse battery production is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the bottleneck issues for TSLA’s production growth. It is a key piece in TSLA’s overall strategy of vertical integration. Going forward, the successful 4680 inhouse production and structural battery packs give the company better control of its supply chain and a leg up over other automakers.</li></ul><h2>TSLA Q1 Highlights</h2><p>The most important highlights to me in the earnings were the production and delivery updates. As seen below, TSLA delivered more than 310k vehicles in Q1 2022 and produced more than 305k. Despite market concerns over supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns in Shanghai, TSLA was able to grow both its production and its delivery above the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, its deliveries and predictions grow spectacularly by almost 70%.</p><p>Looking forward, production and deliveries started from the Berlin Gigafactory in March 2022, and from the Texas Gigafactory in April 2022. And I have no doubt that these new Gigafactories will further boost growth in vehicle production and deliveries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faa33a317a5314d897f0593060a9e26e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA earnings report</p><p>Given the healthy growth in deliveries and production, its profits also improved. It raked in a record $18.8B of total revenues and a total of $3.6B in GAAP operating income. Both were at record levels and represented spectacular growth both compared to the previous quarter and also YoY. In terms of margins, it managed to reduce costs (COGS costs) per vehicle despite inflationary pressures. The operating margin expanded to a record 19.2% in Q1, and GAAP Automotive&#39;s gross margin also expanded to a record 32.9%.</p><p>However, there are a few not-so-rosy numbers too. Operating cash decreased by about $500M to about $4B compared to the previous quarter. As a result, the operating cash flow less CAPEX (i.e., free cash flow) dropped to $2.2B in Q1, lower than the previous quarter’s 2.7 billion by about $500M. More than fundamentals, there are also some uncertainties in future production and growth, as detailed next.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/471d7369904b53af4bc3a3ec7ee96306\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA earnings report</p><h2>Production Uncertainties And Modeling</h2><p>Now on to the production risks and uncertainty. In Q1 2022, management reported a continuation of the global supply chain, transportation, labor, and other manufacturing challenges. These issues have limited the ability of the factories at full capacity.</p><p>Looking forward, some of these issues are going to persist. Both Berlin and Texas factories are in their earlier ramp-up phase. One of the key pieces for TSLA capacity growth involves Gigafactory Texas to be able to produce Model Ys using both structural packs with 4680 cells as well as non-structural packs with 2170 cells. This goal may be delayed due to supply chain issues and throttle production. In China, a spike in COVID-19 cases in Shanghai has led to the lockdown of the city and the shutdown of the factory. As a key port city, Shanghai can also interrupt TSLA’s supply chain. Although limited production has recently restarted, the situation is very fluid and could reverse.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f4d674a58f20c4fbacab08a736c8fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA earnings report</p><p>The margin of uncertainties widens as we look further out. TSLA’s management&#39;s target is at 20 million by 2030, translating to about 25x of 2021 volume and a growth rate of about 50% CAGR per year. Management’s optimism is certainly shared among the investment community. For example, some analysts believe TSLA can comfortably grow production by 50% every year through 2025 and possibly 2030. While ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is even more optimistic, predicting Tesla to sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. On the other hand, there is no lack of skepticism either. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target.</p><p>Given such uncertainties, it makes sense to explore a couple of scenarios to form a more comprehensive and objective view. This next table summarizes three scenarios of 20%, 30%, and 50% annual growth rates for TSLA considering its fixed cost and variable cost of production. The analyses of its production cost have been detailed in my earlier article and here I will just summarize the key points for the ease of reference:</p><blockquote><ul><li><i>It has passed the pivot point of critical scale (with a break-even point that occurred somewhere around 100k vehicles), recouped the fixed cost, and now began to harvest the benefit of the scale of production and expanding margin. Its variable cost is estimated to be about $40k per vehicle.</i></li><li><i>I also assumed that the operating expenses to be 13% of total sales and the average vehicle price tag to be $58,000, which is consistent with its current levels. Note these assumptions also make my analysis more on the conservative side, because operation costs would also be diluted on a per-vehicle basis as Tesla sells more units.</i></li></ul></blockquote><p>As seen, depending on the growth rates, the return scenarios can be drastically different. Right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued even after the recent corrections. At about 16x of sales and 83x EV/EBITDA, it is expensively valued both in relative terms and absolute terms (the overall market is valued at about 3x sales and 16x EV/EBITDA). However, if it indeed grows its production at a 50% annual rate, it could outgrow its current valuation quickly. By 2025, the price to sales ratio would be 3.2x and EV/EBITDA multiple by about 17.6x - not too different from the market at its current price. However, if growth slows to 20%, then it would be still trading at an expensive premium for years to come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce6946c15364a8fafd81c7e38c9efd8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><h2>Kelly Bet Analysis</h2><p>So it is indeed a high uncertainty investment. Both large gains and losses are possible as summarized in the following table. In this table, I considered the above three growth scenarios and assumed that:</p><ul><li>The base scenario with 30% production growth would enjoy an EV/EBITDA multiple of 25.7x, a 50% premium over the overall market.</li><li>The bearish scenario with 20% production growth would be valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.5x, a 20% premium over the overall market (because a 20% growth rate still deserves a valuation premium).</li><li>The bullish scenario with 50% as expressed by management would be valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 24.2x, a 100% premium over the overall market.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9277760bdef1b7376d8001c78304a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>Usually, the discussion from here would turn into a subjective debate between the bulls and bears as aforementioned. This article will take a different approach and gauge the risk/reward profile in a more objective way using the Kelly bet size analysis. More details of the analysis can be found in my earlier article on Altria (another high uncertain stock), and only a brief summary is provided below to facilitate the remainder of the discussion.</p><blockquote><i>The Kelly method helps to turn such subjective debate into more action-oriented decision-making. The Kelly bet analysis</i> <i>is a way to determine bet sizing as a percentage of bankroll that leads to optimal growth in the long run (i.e., if you place a large number of the same bet over and again). Another reason I use it is that it not only considers the expected return, but also the variance among the outcomes, which is equally important, or more important in my view. </i></blockquote><p>With the above background, a Kelly bet analysis is shown below for the TSLA investment for the scenarios analyzed above. As seen, the Kelly analysis allows you to assign different odds – based on your judgment of the situation - and shows what your bet size should be.</p><p>For me, my assessment of the most likely odds is 50% for the base case (30% production growth), 25% for the bearish case, and 25% for the bullish case. Under these odds, the expected return is a positive 3.9% - note here the 3.9% means the expected return is 3.9% each time I place such a bet with these odds. And the bet size is 66% of the bankroll.</p><p>As another example, let’s imagine someone who holds a more doomed view for TSLA with the following odds (the so-called break-even odds) – i.e., the odds that make the expected return zero so it is not worth betting on anymore. As seen, the breakeven odds are the following: 50% odds for the base case, 34% for the bearish case, and 16% for the bullish case. In this case, the expected return is almost zero and the Kelly bet size is also almost zero too (3% of bankroll only). In other words, if your view of the odds for things to unfold is close to (or worse than) these breakeven odds, then you should not invest in TSLA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807bd565fb2332f6bc5a7dae82a82c65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><h2>Conclusions And Other Risks</h2><p>The recent developments of TSLA represent a textbook example of an investment opportunity with high uncertainties. TSLA stock prices are dominated by market sentiment and also the fundamental uncertainties of its production ramping up. And you should really consider your risk appetite before engaging.</p><p>A Kelly assessment shows an overall positive return profile based on quite conservative assumptions. Even assuming a 16% probability for the bullish case and a 34x EV/EBITDA multiple, the investment would have breakeven odds. And also note the 34x EV/EBITDA multiple is conservative in the bullish case. To put things under perspective, the fair valuation implied in the analyses from several leading institutions (such as Bank of America) under ~50% growth rate is in the range from 60x to 100x EV/EBITDA.</p><p>At the same time, TSLA achieved a key milestone last quarter, the inhouse production of 4680 battery cells, which will serve as a key catalyst for future capacity growth. It is a key piece in TSLA’s overall strategy of vertical integration. Going forward, the successful 4680 cell inhouse production and structural battery packs give the company better control of its supply chain and a leg up over other automakers.</p><p>And finally, a few words about some other risks and the limitation of the Kelly analysis itself:</p><ul><li>Specific to TSLA, in the near term, its production continues to be hobbled by the global shortage of semiconductor chips, congestion at shipping ports, and the rising cost and/or shortage of raw materials (especially nickel and lithium which are crucial for EV production).</li><li>In the longer term, the competition in the EV space is also heating up. TSLA’s market share in some of the major markets is under a lot of pressure not only from established car manufacturers but also from EV companies in the US and abroad. Especially in China, its key EV market, it faces competition from NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, et al. The future of EVs also depends sensitively on government policies and incentives, which may not always be in TSLA’s favor.</li><li>Finally, the Kelly analysis itself cannot – nothing can – turn investment decisions into a completely scientific and objective process. If uncertainties/risks can be quantified, then they are not uncertainties/risks to start with. In the end, some degree of subjective judgment is always required based on each person&#39;s risk tolerance. For me, the Kelly analysis maps out the bounds and limits of the risks, so I can judge if I am comfortable with those limits.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Risk Calculus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Risk Calculus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-05 11:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506801-teslas-risk-calculus><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ThesisTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors have been on a roller coaster recently. On the positive side, its 2022 Q1 was another record-setting quarter. It delivered better-than-expected results pretty much ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506801-teslas-risk-calculus\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4506801-teslas-risk-calculus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2233004021","content_text":"ThesisTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors have been on a roller coaster recently. On the positive side, its 2022 Q1 was another record-setting quarter. It delivered better-than-expected results pretty much across the board.It delivered 310,000 vehicles despite market concerns over supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns in Shanghai. Both topline and bottom line also showed healthy growth and the operating margin expanded to a record 19%. After reporting such up beating numbers, the stock price rallied by more than 10% the next trading day on April 21 to almost $1,100.However, on the other side, a few negative developments sent the stock price back to the $850 level. Note that the price information was taken during the trading session on Monday, May 2. With the large market volatilities these days, the prices may have changed a bit when you read this article. First, the overall market sentiment had been dominated by fear last week after TSLA’s earnings release. With major institutions like Bank of America trimming S&P 500 targets and forecasting an increased possibility of a recession ahead, all major indices suffered a large correction, and the S&P 500 lost a whopping 3.6% in a single day last Friday. Second, Elon Musk unloaded about $8B worth of his shares in lots priced between $870 to $1,000 according to filings released on April 29, adding more fuel to the fire. Unfortunately, such events have happened before and very likely will happen again. Another recent example involved polling his 62.5 million Twitter followers whether he should reduce his holdings or not. And we all know what transpired next – the stock price fell by more than 17% to the $1,000 level during that week.Yahoo FinanceLooking forward, we see both some additional uncertainties ahead and also some catalysts to support its production ramping up and profitability growth. Overall, we see the investment feature a positive return profile despite large variance. Specifically,Looking past the above short-term price dramas, there are a few additional key uncertainties ahead for TSLA investors. Both the Texas and Berlin factories are in earlier ramp up phase, and their production goals may be delayed due to variable uncertainties (supply chain issues, labor shortage, material shortage, et al). Its Shanghai factory is operating on partial capacity and its status hinges on the COVID situation in the city. Also, as a key port city, Shanghai can also interrupt TSLA’s overall supply chain in China.But at the same time, we also see positive catalysts that support a favorable risk/return profile. The investment would feature breakeven odds return even assuming a relatively small probability (about 16%) for management to deliver their growth expectations of about 50% CAGR.More importantly, TSLA achieved an important milestone for future capacity growth in the last quarter: the inhouse production of 4680 battery cells. In April 2022, TSLA delivered the first Model Y with 4680 in-house made cells, single-piece front body castings and structural battery packs. Ultimately, Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg will be able to produce Model Ys using both structural packs with 4680 cells as well as non-structural packs with 2170 cells. Inhouse battery production is one of the bottleneck issues for TSLA’s production growth. It is a key piece in TSLA’s overall strategy of vertical integration. Going forward, the successful 4680 inhouse production and structural battery packs give the company better control of its supply chain and a leg up over other automakers.TSLA Q1 HighlightsThe most important highlights to me in the earnings were the production and delivery updates. As seen below, TSLA delivered more than 310k vehicles in Q1 2022 and produced more than 305k. Despite market concerns over supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns in Shanghai, TSLA was able to grow both its production and its delivery above the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, its deliveries and predictions grow spectacularly by almost 70%.Looking forward, production and deliveries started from the Berlin Gigafactory in March 2022, and from the Texas Gigafactory in April 2022. And I have no doubt that these new Gigafactories will further boost growth in vehicle production and deliveries.TSLA earnings reportGiven the healthy growth in deliveries and production, its profits also improved. It raked in a record $18.8B of total revenues and a total of $3.6B in GAAP operating income. Both were at record levels and represented spectacular growth both compared to the previous quarter and also YoY. In terms of margins, it managed to reduce costs (COGS costs) per vehicle despite inflationary pressures. The operating margin expanded to a record 19.2% in Q1, and GAAP Automotive's gross margin also expanded to a record 32.9%.However, there are a few not-so-rosy numbers too. Operating cash decreased by about $500M to about $4B compared to the previous quarter. As a result, the operating cash flow less CAPEX (i.e., free cash flow) dropped to $2.2B in Q1, lower than the previous quarter’s 2.7 billion by about $500M. More than fundamentals, there are also some uncertainties in future production and growth, as detailed next.TSLA earnings reportProduction Uncertainties And ModelingNow on to the production risks and uncertainty. In Q1 2022, management reported a continuation of the global supply chain, transportation, labor, and other manufacturing challenges. These issues have limited the ability of the factories at full capacity.Looking forward, some of these issues are going to persist. Both Berlin and Texas factories are in their earlier ramp-up phase. One of the key pieces for TSLA capacity growth involves Gigafactory Texas to be able to produce Model Ys using both structural packs with 4680 cells as well as non-structural packs with 2170 cells. This goal may be delayed due to supply chain issues and throttle production. In China, a spike in COVID-19 cases in Shanghai has led to the lockdown of the city and the shutdown of the factory. As a key port city, Shanghai can also interrupt TSLA’s supply chain. Although limited production has recently restarted, the situation is very fluid and could reverse.TSLA earnings reportThe margin of uncertainties widens as we look further out. TSLA’s management's target is at 20 million by 2030, translating to about 25x of 2021 volume and a growth rate of about 50% CAGR per year. Management’s optimism is certainly shared among the investment community. For example, some analysts believe TSLA can comfortably grow production by 50% every year through 2025 and possibly 2030. While ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood is even more optimistic, predicting Tesla to sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. On the other hand, there is no lack of skepticism either. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target.Given such uncertainties, it makes sense to explore a couple of scenarios to form a more comprehensive and objective view. This next table summarizes three scenarios of 20%, 30%, and 50% annual growth rates for TSLA considering its fixed cost and variable cost of production. The analyses of its production cost have been detailed in my earlier article and here I will just summarize the key points for the ease of reference:It has passed the pivot point of critical scale (with a break-even point that occurred somewhere around 100k vehicles), recouped the fixed cost, and now began to harvest the benefit of the scale of production and expanding margin. Its variable cost is estimated to be about $40k per vehicle.I also assumed that the operating expenses to be 13% of total sales and the average vehicle price tag to be $58,000, which is consistent with its current levels. Note these assumptions also make my analysis more on the conservative side, because operation costs would also be diluted on a per-vehicle basis as Tesla sells more units.As seen, depending on the growth rates, the return scenarios can be drastically different. Right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued even after the recent corrections. At about 16x of sales and 83x EV/EBITDA, it is expensively valued both in relative terms and absolute terms (the overall market is valued at about 3x sales and 16x EV/EBITDA). However, if it indeed grows its production at a 50% annual rate, it could outgrow its current valuation quickly. By 2025, the price to sales ratio would be 3.2x and EV/EBITDA multiple by about 17.6x - not too different from the market at its current price. However, if growth slows to 20%, then it would be still trading at an expensive premium for years to come.AuthorKelly Bet AnalysisSo it is indeed a high uncertainty investment. Both large gains and losses are possible as summarized in the following table. In this table, I considered the above three growth scenarios and assumed that:The base scenario with 30% production growth would enjoy an EV/EBITDA multiple of 25.7x, a 50% premium over the overall market.The bearish scenario with 20% production growth would be valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.5x, a 20% premium over the overall market (because a 20% growth rate still deserves a valuation premium).The bullish scenario with 50% as expressed by management would be valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 24.2x, a 100% premium over the overall market.AuthorUsually, the discussion from here would turn into a subjective debate between the bulls and bears as aforementioned. This article will take a different approach and gauge the risk/reward profile in a more objective way using the Kelly bet size analysis. More details of the analysis can be found in my earlier article on Altria (another high uncertain stock), and only a brief summary is provided below to facilitate the remainder of the discussion.The Kelly method helps to turn such subjective debate into more action-oriented decision-making. The Kelly bet analysis is a way to determine bet sizing as a percentage of bankroll that leads to optimal growth in the long run (i.e., if you place a large number of the same bet over and again). Another reason I use it is that it not only considers the expected return, but also the variance among the outcomes, which is equally important, or more important in my view. With the above background, a Kelly bet analysis is shown below for the TSLA investment for the scenarios analyzed above. As seen, the Kelly analysis allows you to assign different odds – based on your judgment of the situation - and shows what your bet size should be.For me, my assessment of the most likely odds is 50% for the base case (30% production growth), 25% for the bearish case, and 25% for the bullish case. Under these odds, the expected return is a positive 3.9% - note here the 3.9% means the expected return is 3.9% each time I place such a bet with these odds. And the bet size is 66% of the bankroll.As another example, let’s imagine someone who holds a more doomed view for TSLA with the following odds (the so-called break-even odds) – i.e., the odds that make the expected return zero so it is not worth betting on anymore. As seen, the breakeven odds are the following: 50% odds for the base case, 34% for the bearish case, and 16% for the bullish case. In this case, the expected return is almost zero and the Kelly bet size is also almost zero too (3% of bankroll only). In other words, if your view of the odds for things to unfold is close to (or worse than) these breakeven odds, then you should not invest in TSLA.AuthorConclusions And Other RisksThe recent developments of TSLA represent a textbook example of an investment opportunity with high uncertainties. TSLA stock prices are dominated by market sentiment and also the fundamental uncertainties of its production ramping up. And you should really consider your risk appetite before engaging.A Kelly assessment shows an overall positive return profile based on quite conservative assumptions. Even assuming a 16% probability for the bullish case and a 34x EV/EBITDA multiple, the investment would have breakeven odds. And also note the 34x EV/EBITDA multiple is conservative in the bullish case. To put things under perspective, the fair valuation implied in the analyses from several leading institutions (such as Bank of America) under ~50% growth rate is in the range from 60x to 100x EV/EBITDA.At the same time, TSLA achieved a key milestone last quarter, the inhouse production of 4680 battery cells, which will serve as a key catalyst for future capacity growth. It is a key piece in TSLA’s overall strategy of vertical integration. Going forward, the successful 4680 cell inhouse production and structural battery packs give the company better control of its supply chain and a leg up over other automakers.And finally, a few words about some other risks and the limitation of the Kelly analysis itself:Specific to TSLA, in the near term, its production continues to be hobbled by the global shortage of semiconductor chips, congestion at shipping ports, and the rising cost and/or shortage of raw materials (especially nickel and lithium which are crucial for EV production).In the longer term, the competition in the EV space is also heating up. TSLA’s market share in some of the major markets is under a lot of pressure not only from established car manufacturers but also from EV companies in the US and abroad. Especially in China, its key EV market, it faces competition from NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, et al. The future of EVs also depends sensitively on government policies and incentives, which may not always be in TSLA’s favor.Finally, the Kelly analysis itself cannot – nothing can – turn investment decisions into a completely scientific and objective process. If uncertainties/risks can be quantified, then they are not uncertainties/risks to start with. In the end, some degree of subjective judgment is always required based on each person's risk tolerance. For me, the Kelly analysis maps out the bounds and limits of the risks, so I can judge if I am comfortable with those limits.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069099140,"gmtCreate":1651199273152,"gmtModify":1676534869514,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>👍👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>👍👍","text":"$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$👍👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30d803813e463d90c4eef833332465ad","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069099140","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060660225,"gmtCreate":1651139490009,"gmtModify":1676534857505,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>😭😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>😭😭","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$😭😭","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/650b073b57b31b81683fa68940532945","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060660225","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142654344,"gmtCreate":1626148352488,"gmtModify":1703754320330,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$JD.com(JD)$</a>ComeOn","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$JD.com(JD)$</a>ComeOn","text":"$JD.com(JD)$ComeOn","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485faf0bf63cf0d7f154084ed964d529","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142654344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146577388,"gmtCreate":1626094381944,"gmtModify":1703753203114,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"? woah","listText":"? woah","text":"? woah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146577388","repostId":"1163404938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163404938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626094138,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163404938?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cryptocurrency trading shrinks 40% in June as volatility weakens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163404938","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"With China cracks down on cryptocurrency activities and lower volatility constraining the sector,tra","content":"<ul>\n <li>With China cracks down on cryptocurrency activities and lower volatility constraining the sector,trading volumesat major crypto exchanges declined by more than 40% in June, Reuters reports, citing data from London-based CryptoCompare.</li>\n <li>\"Headwinds continued as China persisted with its crackdown on bitcoin mining,\" the firm said. \"As a result of both lower prices and volatility, spot volumes decreased.\"</li>\n <li>Binance, which has faced increased scrutiny from regulators in the past month, keeps its rank as the biggest platform by spot trading volume, according to CryptoCompare, even as its volume fell 56% to $668B.</li>\n <li>Bitcoin (BTC-USD), which touched as high as $64.8K in April, fell to as low as $28.9K in June. In the past three months, the largest crypto by market cap fell 44%.</li>\n <li>Still, Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;rises 0.4%&nbsp;in premarket trading.</li>\n <li>BTC&nbsp;falls 0.5%&nbsp;over the last 24 hours to $33.6K; ethereum (ETH-USD)&nbsp;falls 0.9%&nbsp;to $2,106; Binance Coin (BNB-USD) rises 0.3% to $323; dogecoin (DOGE-USD)falls 0.3%&nbsp;to 21 cents.</li>\n <li>SA contributor Euphoric Investment sees COIN as one of theprimary beneficiaries from near-term magnitude of scale in the crypto and blockchain economies.</li>\n</ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cryptocurrency trading shrinks 40% in June as volatility weakens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCryptocurrency trading shrinks 40% in June as volatility weakens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 20:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714234-cryptocurrency-trading-shrinks-40-in-june-as-volatility-weakens><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With China cracks down on cryptocurrency activities and lower volatility constraining the sector,trading volumesat major crypto exchanges declined by more than 40% in June, Reuters reports, citing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714234-cryptocurrency-trading-shrinks-40-in-june-as-volatility-weakens\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3714234-cryptocurrency-trading-shrinks-40-in-june-as-volatility-weakens","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163404938","content_text":"With China cracks down on cryptocurrency activities and lower volatility constraining the sector,trading volumesat major crypto exchanges declined by more than 40% in June, Reuters reports, citing data from London-based CryptoCompare.\n\"Headwinds continued as China persisted with its crackdown on bitcoin mining,\" the firm said. \"As a result of both lower prices and volatility, spot volumes decreased.\"\nBinance, which has faced increased scrutiny from regulators in the past month, keeps its rank as the biggest platform by spot trading volume, according to CryptoCompare, even as its volume fell 56% to $668B.\nBitcoin (BTC-USD), which touched as high as $64.8K in April, fell to as low as $28.9K in June. In the past three months, the largest crypto by market cap fell 44%.\nStill, Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN) rises 0.4% in premarket trading.\nBTC falls 0.5% over the last 24 hours to $33.6K; ethereum (ETH-USD) falls 0.9% to $2,106; Binance Coin (BNB-USD) rises 0.3% to $323; dogecoin (DOGE-USD)falls 0.3% to 21 cents.\nSA contributor Euphoric Investment sees COIN as one of theprimary beneficiaries from near-term magnitude of scale in the crypto and blockchain economies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146574487,"gmtCreate":1626094346449,"gmtModify":1703753202455,"author":{"id":"3581636665948590","authorId":"3581636665948590","name":"Hui Soh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635f70843f822851180aeb884ee030e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636665948590","authorIdStr":"3581636665948590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>??","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611b86c4f5c0502245797c5ef606d662","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146574487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}