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- PatrickLPPatrickLP
  ·2021-06-26
  Like please comment :)
  NIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential
  Tesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.Still, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla .Tes
  NIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential
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- PatrickLPPatrickLP
  ·2021-06-13
  Nice pls like and comment thanks :)
  Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays
  GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the
  Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays
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- PatrickLPPatrickLP
  ·2021-06-12
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  How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy
  If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns. Oi
  How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy
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NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.Still, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla .Tes","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is already well over a 10-bagger.</li>\n <li>Tesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.</li>\n <li>There are many EV competitors, but NIO has a proven track record of growth and innovation with international expansion, ADAS, autonomous driving and ADaaS, and battery swapping and BaaS.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO(NYSE:NIO)was far from the largest holding in my portfolio, but has grown well over 10x since the midst of its funding issues in late 2019. This was driven by a strong post-COVID-19 rebound and further growth of its EV sales. Further optionality was introduced with capacity expansion, the new, innovative BaaS business model, and potential international expansion to Europe.</p>\n<p>Still, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>Tesla stock had a similar success in 2020, which was capped off by its introduction in the S&amp;P 500. This arguably supports the view that EVs are, in fact, not a bubble. NIO, in that regard, should be regarded as the Chinese Tesla, and hence poised for further growth. China is also poised to become the silicon valley of EVs and also has supportive regulation towards autonomous driving.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, there are many competitors in EVs, not the least in China as well (also from Tesla). However, NIO is still one of the leading start-ups positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, with its proven track record of innovation and growth.</p>\n<p><b>Automotive disruption</b></p>\n<p>The automotive industry is undergoing major changes. The first major trend is towards energy sustainability. This has fueled the growth of EVs. Secondly, there is a strong economic incentive towards autonomous driving (called the \"passenger economy\"), which will further revolutionize transportation.</p>\n<p>This means this industry is open for disruption. This is indeed already unfolding, as can be seen in the trajectory of Tesla through the last decade, as one of the hallmarks of this.</p>\n<p>Even though it is an old, capital intensive business, Tesla proves that investors are willing to pay up to be part of this revolution. As noted, Tesla capped this off by its S&amp;P 500 inclusion and 500k deliveries in 2020, with continued strong growth at scale into 2021.</p>\n<p>In short, even though it could be seen as an old business, there is a large, greenfield opportunity in the drive towards electric, autonomous transportation. Hence, to be leading this disruption requires innovation.</p>\n<p><b>NIO: Chinese Tesla</b></p>\n<p>This opportunity is arguably so large that there does not necessarily have to be a winner-takes-all. Automotive is such a large market that it could be likened to e-commerce, for example. Amazon (AMZN) has been one of the largest beneficiaries of this secular growth trend. However, there are many others who have achieved a large scale and valuation growth, including Alibaba (BABA) and MercadoLibre (MELI).</p>\n<p>To that end, NIO is positioned to become in EVs and AVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce: the Chinese Tesla.</p>\n<p>NIO is a relatively young start-up, founded on the same premise of being a pure play EV automotive company, while also investing to be at forefront of ADAS and autonomous driving. It had a strong partnership with Mobileye. It was the first adopter of the former's EyeQ4 chip in 2018. NIO was also announced to be the first adopter of Mobileye's self-driving system, in 2022. This would likely be several years ahead of others, as Mobileye is targeting a 2025 introduction of (a broader introduction of) consumer AVs.</p>\n<p>It is, however, not entirely sure if (and perhaps even unlikely that) this Mobileye-powered autonomous vehicle will still launch, as going forward NIO is continuing with Nvidia (NVDA) hardware and developing its own software. In any case, NIO's timeline is unchanged, although it is not sure if NIO's own software will be as capable as Mobileye's. I previously covered this aspect of NIO here:NIO Stock: Autonomous Driving Too Good To Be True.</p>\n<p>In any case, NIO will bring another first to market with its Autonomous Driving-as-a-Service model or ADaaS. This will provide customer access to its autonomous driving capabilities through a monthly subscription.</p>\n<p>While there had been some funding issues and a slowdown in the midst of COVID-19, the image below shows that growth returned quickly. More recently, there have been issues due to the chip shortage, but those are obviously quite similar for the whole industry.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1373049969409b7fa8a90c380b6204e0\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NIO's track record of growth and innovation is further completed by its introduction of the BaaS business model and plans for international expansion to Europe in 2021.</p>\n<p>BaaS or Battery-as-a-Service means that the EV is bought without the battery, which reduces the upfront price. The battery is then acquired separately through a subscription. BaaS was introduced in the second half of 2020 and quickly achieved a significant uptake of ~40%. BaaS also further complements NIO's previous innovation of battery swapping.</p>\n<p>Hence, this shows NIO is a leading innovator in the Chinese EV market, while investing to also lead the second, autonomous inflection. This is also a major market, as China is targeting a 25% EV market share by 2025. It could quickly become the silicon valley of EVs and even AVs. NIO's international ambition further underlines its leading position.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Some have called EVs a bubble. Both Tesla and NIO stock were on the order of a 10-bagger in 2020. In the comments below many articles, Tesla's valuation and deliveries are compared to the traditional OEMs. Supposedly this should show the large discrepancy in valuation.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, arguably this is not a bubble as the transition to EVs and subsequently AVs marks a major inflection. This means it is a large, largely greenfield growth opportunity. Hence, investors are willing to pay for this growth by investing in the companies who are leading. Moreover, EVs and AVs are also much closer aligned to tech investing, where higher valuations are more common.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, in spite of automotive being notorious for its capital intensity. NIO for its part (partly) solves this by not producing its vehicles itself, but partnering for manufacturing.</p>\n<p>There are other examples in tech where those who are seen as growth companies are rewarded with incredible valuations. For example, Nvidia has achieved almost 2x the valuation of Intel (INTC), despite over 3x lower revenue. TSMC (TSM) has over 2x the valuation of Intel despite almost 2x lower revenue. Of course, Nvidia and TSMC are growing faster than Intel, but that proves the point that high growth is often rewarded with perhaps unrealistic valuations.</p>\n<p>With regards to NIO's valuation, it (still) has ~10x lower market cap than Tesla (to be precise, about 8x at the time of writing), but also ~10x lower deliveries. Hence, NIO's valuation is in line with its bigger peer.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, as a smaller company, it is arguably NIO who that the largest relative growth prospects ahead. For example, Tesla investors who want to see substantial shareholder returns going forward have to bank on Tesla's goal to achieve 20M deliveries by 2030, which would be over a fifth of the total global vehicle market.</p>\n<p>If NIO for its part would be able to translate its innovation into continued, sustained growth, similar to Tesla, then there should be no reason for NIO to not continue to track the valuation of Tesla. This means NIO, indeed, may have another 10x upside or so if it closes the gap to Tesla in scale.</p>\n<p>From that view, NIO is lagging behind Tesla by multiple years, in both deliveries and market cap. The last comment could be as analogous to for examplePinterest(PINS), which is a company Iarguedwas lagging by several years to Facebook (FB).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Of course, there are major risks. Mainly, this thesis is based on two assumptions:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla and other EV/AV stocks will continue to grow and receive elevated valuations as these trends continue to unfold;</li>\n <li>NIO is best positioned to most closely track Tesla's business and stock performance.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Any decrease in (relative) valuation could result in downside. For example, Tesla's ambition as laid out at its fall 2020 Battery Day event called for Tesla to achieve a scale of 20 million units by 2030. Hence, it is likely at least some part of that ambition for further growth is already priced into the stock.</p>\n<p>Needless to say, not every automotive or EV company will be able to achieve a scale of 20M units, as the global automotive market is below 100M units. There is both competition from traditional OEMs such as GM (GM) and Volkswagen, as well as other Chinese companiessuch as XPeng(XPEV).</p>\n<p>Additionally, although China seems to be one the largest markets for EVs in the near future, Tesla itself has already built its own Gigafactory in China, further increasing competition. Although the reverse is also partly true given NIO's own international expansion.</p>\n<p>The last risk for NIO growth it that is has expressed that it wants to remain a premium brand with relatively high ASPs (average selling prices). While this implies NIO could have above-average gross margins, it may nevertheless lower NIO's addressable market and hence potential future growth.</p>\n<p>Further, while NIO is heavily investing in autonomous driving and seems to be at the forefront of this next major inflection, it is ultimately reliant on third-party silicon vendors like Nvidia. This insight means pretty much by definition that AV technology may not remain a differentiated capability, as others will be able to buy the same off-the-shelf systems. Although as noted NIO is developing its own software, that itselfis also a riskgiven the difficulty in creating a scalable and reliable AV system.</p>\n<p>As described, though, NIO is a clear, leading innovator, and has achieved a strong brand value. This arguably makes it the strongest candidate to become the closest to a 'Chinese Tesla'.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>In the last 18 months or so, there has been a major shift in investment sentiment around EV companies. Tesla has seen 10-bagger returns. So when evaluating NIO, after its own 10-bagger returns (or more), to a valuation closer to $100B than $10B, on the surface this may change the investment narrative.</p>\n<p>However, at least a portion of NIO's large shareholder returns was because of its financial issues, which it has overcome; NIO's valuation is not significantly different from Tesla, for one. Meanwhile, its still much lower scale arguably leaves much room for upside.</p>\n<p>NIO's stock is based on NIO's growth to capitalize on the two-fold disruption of EVs and AVs in the automotive industry. NIO already has a proven track record of growth and innovation with battery swap, ADAS, autonomous driving (although with some increased risks given its change of supplier), ADaaS, BaaS, and even international expansion.</p>\n<p>While far from every company will be able to achieve a similar scale as Tesla, NIO clearly remains positioned to be successful in this space, which represents a large, greenfield opportunity in both the Chinese and international push towards electric and autonomous driving.</p>\n<p>This means NIO's valuation is both the risk and the reward. The reward is that NIO could realistically still expand by another 10x if it continues to trade at a similar valuation as Tesla, while closing the gap in scale. I likened NIO to the Alibaba of EVs: the Chinese counterpart of Amazon in EVs. The risk is NIO's ability to execute and deliver on its growth opportunity, as well as (just as importantly) as Tesla's and other EV stocks' valuation not collapsing on changes in investor sentiment.</p>\n<p>The bottom line (since NIO's peak in February) is that the potential opportunity that still lies ahead slightly outweighs the risk.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-25 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is already well over a 10-bagger.\nTesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1198714523","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is already well over a 10-bagger.\nTesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.\nThere are many EV competitors, but NIO has a proven track record of growth and innovation with international expansion, ADAS, autonomous driving and ADaaS, and battery swapping and BaaS.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nNIO(NYSE:NIO)was far from the largest holding in my portfolio, but has grown well over 10x since the midst of its funding issues in late 2019. This was driven by a strong post-COVID-19 rebound and further growth of its EV sales. Further optionality was introduced with capacity expansion, the new, innovative BaaS business model, and potential international expansion to Europe.\nStill, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla (TSLA).\nTesla stock had a similar success in 2020, which was capped off by its introduction in the S&P 500. This arguably supports the view that EVs are, in fact, not a bubble. NIO, in that regard, should be regarded as the Chinese Tesla, and hence poised for further growth. China is also poised to become the silicon valley of EVs and also has supportive regulation towards autonomous driving.\nNevertheless, there are many competitors in EVs, not the least in China as well (also from Tesla). However, NIO is still one of the leading start-ups positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, with its proven track record of innovation and growth.\nAutomotive disruption\nThe automotive industry is undergoing major changes. The first major trend is towards energy sustainability. This has fueled the growth of EVs. Secondly, there is a strong economic incentive towards autonomous driving (called the \"passenger economy\"), which will further revolutionize transportation.\nThis means this industry is open for disruption. This is indeed already unfolding, as can be seen in the trajectory of Tesla through the last decade, as one of the hallmarks of this.\nEven though it is an old, capital intensive business, Tesla proves that investors are willing to pay up to be part of this revolution. As noted, Tesla capped this off by its S&P 500 inclusion and 500k deliveries in 2020, with continued strong growth at scale into 2021.\nIn short, even though it could be seen as an old business, there is a large, greenfield opportunity in the drive towards electric, autonomous transportation. Hence, to be leading this disruption requires innovation.\nNIO: Chinese Tesla\nThis opportunity is arguably so large that there does not necessarily have to be a winner-takes-all. Automotive is such a large market that it could be likened to e-commerce, for example. Amazon (AMZN) has been one of the largest beneficiaries of this secular growth trend. However, there are many others who have achieved a large scale and valuation growth, including Alibaba (BABA) and MercadoLibre (MELI).\nTo that end, NIO is positioned to become in EVs and AVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce: the Chinese Tesla.\nNIO is a relatively young start-up, founded on the same premise of being a pure play EV automotive company, while also investing to be at forefront of ADAS and autonomous driving. It had a strong partnership with Mobileye. It was the first adopter of the former's EyeQ4 chip in 2018. NIO was also announced to be the first adopter of Mobileye's self-driving system, in 2022. This would likely be several years ahead of others, as Mobileye is targeting a 2025 introduction of (a broader introduction of) consumer AVs.\nIt is, however, not entirely sure if (and perhaps even unlikely that) this Mobileye-powered autonomous vehicle will still launch, as going forward NIO is continuing with Nvidia (NVDA) hardware and developing its own software. In any case, NIO's timeline is unchanged, although it is not sure if NIO's own software will be as capable as Mobileye's. I previously covered this aspect of NIO here:NIO Stock: Autonomous Driving Too Good To Be True.\nIn any case, NIO will bring another first to market with its Autonomous Driving-as-a-Service model or ADaaS. This will provide customer access to its autonomous driving capabilities through a monthly subscription.\nWhile there had been some funding issues and a slowdown in the midst of COVID-19, the image below shows that growth returned quickly. More recently, there have been issues due to the chip shortage, but those are obviously quite similar for the whole industry.\n\nNIO's track record of growth and innovation is further completed by its introduction of the BaaS business model and plans for international expansion to Europe in 2021.\nBaaS or Battery-as-a-Service means that the EV is bought without the battery, which reduces the upfront price. The battery is then acquired separately through a subscription. BaaS was introduced in the second half of 2020 and quickly achieved a significant uptake of ~40%. BaaS also further complements NIO's previous innovation of battery swapping.\nHence, this shows NIO is a leading innovator in the Chinese EV market, while investing to also lead the second, autonomous inflection. This is also a major market, as China is targeting a 25% EV market share by 2025. It could quickly become the silicon valley of EVs and even AVs. NIO's international ambition further underlines its leading position.\nValuation\nSome have called EVs a bubble. Both Tesla and NIO stock were on the order of a 10-bagger in 2020. In the comments below many articles, Tesla's valuation and deliveries are compared to the traditional OEMs. Supposedly this should show the large discrepancy in valuation.\nNevertheless, arguably this is not a bubble as the transition to EVs and subsequently AVs marks a major inflection. This means it is a large, largely greenfield growth opportunity. Hence, investors are willing to pay for this growth by investing in the companies who are leading. Moreover, EVs and AVs are also much closer aligned to tech investing, where higher valuations are more common.\nThis is, of course, in spite of automotive being notorious for its capital intensity. NIO for its part (partly) solves this by not producing its vehicles itself, but partnering for manufacturing.\nThere are other examples in tech where those who are seen as growth companies are rewarded with incredible valuations. For example, Nvidia has achieved almost 2x the valuation of Intel (INTC), despite over 3x lower revenue. TSMC (TSM) has over 2x the valuation of Intel despite almost 2x lower revenue. Of course, Nvidia and TSMC are growing faster than Intel, but that proves the point that high growth is often rewarded with perhaps unrealistic valuations.\nWith regards to NIO's valuation, it (still) has ~10x lower market cap than Tesla (to be precise, about 8x at the time of writing), but also ~10x lower deliveries. Hence, NIO's valuation is in line with its bigger peer.\nNevertheless, as a smaller company, it is arguably NIO who that the largest relative growth prospects ahead. For example, Tesla investors who want to see substantial shareholder returns going forward have to bank on Tesla's goal to achieve 20M deliveries by 2030, which would be over a fifth of the total global vehicle market.\nIf NIO for its part would be able to translate its innovation into continued, sustained growth, similar to Tesla, then there should be no reason for NIO to not continue to track the valuation of Tesla. This means NIO, indeed, may have another 10x upside or so if it closes the gap to Tesla in scale.\nFrom that view, NIO is lagging behind Tesla by multiple years, in both deliveries and market cap. The last comment could be as analogous to for examplePinterest(PINS), which is a company Iarguedwas lagging by several years to Facebook (FB).\nRisks\nOf course, there are major risks. Mainly, this thesis is based on two assumptions:\n\nTesla and other EV/AV stocks will continue to grow and receive elevated valuations as these trends continue to unfold;\nNIO is best positioned to most closely track Tesla's business and stock performance.\n\nAny decrease in (relative) valuation could result in downside. For example, Tesla's ambition as laid out at its fall 2020 Battery Day event called for Tesla to achieve a scale of 20 million units by 2030. Hence, it is likely at least some part of that ambition for further growth is already priced into the stock.\nNeedless to say, not every automotive or EV company will be able to achieve a scale of 20M units, as the global automotive market is below 100M units. There is both competition from traditional OEMs such as GM (GM) and Volkswagen, as well as other Chinese companiessuch as XPeng(XPEV).\nAdditionally, although China seems to be one the largest markets for EVs in the near future, Tesla itself has already built its own Gigafactory in China, further increasing competition. Although the reverse is also partly true given NIO's own international expansion.\nThe last risk for NIO growth it that is has expressed that it wants to remain a premium brand with relatively high ASPs (average selling prices). While this implies NIO could have above-average gross margins, it may nevertheless lower NIO's addressable market and hence potential future growth.\nFurther, while NIO is heavily investing in autonomous driving and seems to be at the forefront of this next major inflection, it is ultimately reliant on third-party silicon vendors like Nvidia. This insight means pretty much by definition that AV technology may not remain a differentiated capability, as others will be able to buy the same off-the-shelf systems. Although as noted NIO is developing its own software, that itselfis also a riskgiven the difficulty in creating a scalable and reliable AV system.\nAs described, though, NIO is a clear, leading innovator, and has achieved a strong brand value. This arguably makes it the strongest candidate to become the closest to a 'Chinese Tesla'.\nTakeaway\nIn the last 18 months or so, there has been a major shift in investment sentiment around EV companies. Tesla has seen 10-bagger returns. So when evaluating NIO, after its own 10-bagger returns (or more), to a valuation closer to $100B than $10B, on the surface this may change the investment narrative.\nHowever, at least a portion of NIO's large shareholder returns was because of its financial issues, which it has overcome; NIO's valuation is not significantly different from Tesla, for one. Meanwhile, its still much lower scale arguably leaves much room for upside.\nNIO's stock is based on NIO's growth to capitalize on the two-fold disruption of EVs and AVs in the automotive industry. NIO already has a proven track record of growth and innovation with battery swap, ADAS, autonomous driving (although with some increased risks given its change of supplier), ADaaS, BaaS, and even international expansion.\nWhile far from every company will be able to achieve a similar scale as Tesla, NIO clearly remains positioned to be successful in this space, which represents a large, greenfield opportunity in both the Chinese and international push towards electric and autonomous driving.\nThis means NIO's valuation is both the risk and the reward. The reward is that NIO could realistically still expand by another 10x if it continues to trade at a similar valuation as Tesla, while closing the gap in scale. I likened NIO to the Alibaba of EVs: the Chinese counterpart of Amazon in EVs. The risk is NIO's ability to execute and deliver on its growth opportunity, as well as (just as importantly) as Tesla's and other EV stocks' valuation not collapsing on changes in investor sentiment.\nThe bottom line (since NIO's peak in February) is that the potential opportunity that still lies ahead slightly outweighs the risk.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182030711,"gmtCreate":1623546220433,"gmtModify":1704205699875,"author":{"id":"3581984439547034","authorId":"3581984439547034","name":"PatrickLP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581984439547034","authorIdStr":"3581984439547034"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice pls like and comment thanks :)","listText":"Nice pls like and comment thanks :)","text":"Nice pls like and comment thanks :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182030711","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185020128?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p>\n<p>The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p>\n<p>Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p>\n<p>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p>\n<p><b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p>\n<p><b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p>\n<p><b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p>\n<p>GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p>\n<p>Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p>\n<p><b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p>\n<p>PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p>\n<p>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p>\n<p>But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p>\n<p>The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 06:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220><strong>investors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居","PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188775261,"gmtCreate":1623463893453,"gmtModify":1704204314520,"author":{"id":"3581984439547034","authorId":"3581984439547034","name":"PatrickLP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581984439547034","authorIdStr":"3581984439547034"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188775261","repostId":"2142744202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142744202","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623452760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142744202?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142744202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOi","content":"<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142744202","content_text":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.\nBut with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.\n\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.\n\"No one can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"\nCompany executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.\nBut there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.\nAs Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"\nPrices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.\nThis chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.\nKeeping up?\nPrices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.\nIEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.\nThe changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.\nRead:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell\nBut that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.\n\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.\n\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.\n\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.\n\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.\n$100 oil is a mixed blessing\nIt took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.\nRecently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.\nAs a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.\nWhile energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.\n\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.\nStarting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.\nThen, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.\nAmundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}