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Iannn

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- IannnIannn
  ·2023-03-12
  Ok
  68% of Warren Buffett's $334 Billion Portfolio Is Invested in Only 4 Stocks
  Portfolio concentration has played a sizable role in Buffett's vast outperformance of the S&P 500.
  68% of Warren Buffett's $334 Billion Portfolio Is Invested in Only 4 Stocks
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- IannnIannn
  ·2023-03-04
  Bearish. Beware
  Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%
  SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc
  Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%
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- IannnIannn
  ·2023-02-25
  K
  Further Fed Hikes Expected After Data Dashes "Disinflation" Hopes
  Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them ele
  Further Fed Hikes Expected After Data Dashes "Disinflation" Hopes
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- IannnIannn
  ·2022-12-16
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ bull trap
  257 Comment
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- IannnIannn
  ·2022-09-30
  Be careful
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  384 Comment
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- IannnIannn
  ·2022-09-25
  $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$More drop to come
  429 Comment
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- IannnIannn
  ·2022-09-25
  Ok
  Mozilla challenges anti-market practices of Google, Apple, Microsoft
  Mozilla challenges anti-market practices of Google, Apple, Microsoft
  Mozilla challenges anti-market practices of Google, Apple, Microsoft
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- IannnIannn
  ·2022-09-25
  $Apple(AAPL)$
  431 Comment
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- IannnIannn
  ·2022-09-18
  $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$Buying more before it rises next week
  346 Comment
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- IannnIannn
  ·2022-09-18
  $PING AN(02318)$Ok
  189 Comment
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07:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"68% of Warren Buffett's $334 Billion Portfolio Is Invested in Only 4 Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2318205468","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Portfolio concentration has played a sizable role in Buffett's vast outperformance of the S&P 500.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>If you&#39;ve ever wondered why investors pay so much attention to what <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (BRK.A -2.33%) (BRK.B -2.10%) CEO Warren Buffett is buying and selling, I can offer nearly 3.8 million reasons.</p><p>Since the Oracle of Omaha took over the role of CEO in 1965, he&#39;s created more than $680 billion in value for his company&#39;s shareholders (himself included) and delivered an aggregate return on Berkshire&#39;s Class A shares (BRK.A) of 3,787,464%. That&#39;s 153 times better than the 24,708% total return, including dividends paid, for the widely followed <b>S&amp;P 500</b> over the same stretch.</p><p>Investors are constantly dissecting Buffett&#39;s strategy with the hope of replicating even a fraction of his outperformance. While many of Buffett&#39;s investing traits are well known and credited for his success, such as buying for the long haul and gravitating to dividend stocks, it&#39;s his penchant for portfolio concentration that&#39;s really paid off.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ef8d42f84408103d94010e8475e83c5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</p><p>With the belief that diversification is only necessary if you don&#39;t know what you&#39;re doing, Warren Buffett has put a whopping 68% of Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s $334 billion investment portfolio to work in only four stocks.</p><h2>Apple: $138.3 billion (41.4% of invested assets)</h2><p>In the Oracle of Omaha&#39;s letter to shareholders published last year, he referred to tech stock <b>Apple</b> (AAPL -1.49%) as one of Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s &#34;four giants.&#34; Given that this position comprises more than 41% of Berkshire&#39;s invested assets, calling it a &#34;giant&#34; is a fair assessment.</p><p>Although Apple&#39;s supercharged growth days are now in the past, it continues to be a cash-flow juggernaut driven by innovation. For more than a decade, Apple&#39;s physical products have endeared consumers to its brand. Since launching a 5G-capable iPhone during the fourth quarter of 2020, it&#39;s been able to command around half of U.S. smartphone market share.</p><p>Sales of Mac personal computers (PCs) have been climbing, too. After consistently accounting for between 11% and 13% of global PC shipment share for the past nine years, Mac PC shipments jumped to a greater than 17% worldwide share in late 2022.</p><p>Warren Buffett and his investment team also appreciate Apple&#39;s management team. CEO Tim Cook is spearheading an ongoing transformation that&#39;s emphasizing subscription services. Subscriptions tend to have high margins and can play a key role in minimizing revenue fluctuations when Apple is upgrading one or more of its physical products.</p><p>But it&#39;s Apple&#39;s capital-return program that really gains praise from Buffett. Apple has repurchased in excess of $550 billion of its shares over the past decade and is doling out of the largest nominal-dollar dividends in the world.</p><h2>Bank of America: $35.3 billion (10.6% of invested assets)</h2><p>There&#39;s no sector Buffett enjoys putting Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s money to work in more than financials. At the moment, no bank stock is more beloved than <b>Bank of America</b> (BAC -6.20%). Aside from Apple, it&#39;s the only other stock to account for a double-digit percentage of Berkshire&#39;s invested assets.</p><p>The attraction to bank stocks is that they&#39;re natural moneymakers -- as long as you&#39;re patient. Even though banks are cyclical and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, banks are able to grow their loans and deposits over time and take advantage of the natural expansion of the U.S. economy.</p><p>Bank of America&#39;s secret sauce is its interest rate sensitivity. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the fastest pace in four decades, no large bank is seeing a larger benefit than BofA. These rate hikes are adding billions of dollars in net interest income each quarter -- and the nation&#39;s central bank isn&#39;t done hiking rates.</p><p>Despite its seemingly stodgy disposition, Bank of America is also improving its operating efficiency through investments in digitization. Nearly half of its total sales were completed online or via mobile app during the fourth quarter. As more people shift to online/mobile banking, BofA will have the option of consolidating some of its physical branches and reducing its operating expenses.</p><p>What&#39;s more, bank stocks tend to handsomely reward their shareholders during economic expansions. It&#39;s not abnormal for BofA to return $20 billion per year (or perhaps far more) via dividends and share buybacks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4cdf7ade0b7381b1bec1c8b6e796b27\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>Chevron: $27.6 billion (8.3% of invested assets)</h2><p>Though energy stock <b>Chevron</b> (CVX -1.52%) is one of the newer additions to Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s portfolio (held since the fourth quarter of 2020), it wasted no time becoming one of Buffett&#39;s largest holdings.</p><p>The likeliest reason Buffett and his investing lieutenants, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, piled into Chevron is the belief that oil prices would remain elevated for years to come. While a lot of attention has been paid to Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine and the supply issues this invasion creates for Europe, COVID-19 is a far bigger catalyst.</p><p>Three years of demand uncertainty tied to COVID-19 caused oil and gas companies to pare back their capital expenditures. As a result, crude oil supply is expected to be constrained for years to come. Supply and-demand economics suggests this will provide a lift to the spot price of oil.</p><p>Though Chevron brings in its juiciest margins from drilling, the Oracle of Omaha can appreciate that it&#39;s an integrated operator. Chevron owns transmission pipelines, refineries, and chemical plants, which help it generate predictable cash flow, as well as partially hedge against lower crude oil prices.</p><p>Among global energy majors, Chevron is also arguably the top dog when it comes to balance sheet health. Substantially higher energy commodity prices allowed Chevron to reduce its net debt in 2022 from $25.7 billion to $5.4 billion.</p><p>And big oil is known for its sizable capital-return programs. Chevron has increased its base annual dividend for 36 consecutive years, and its board recently authorized an up to $75 billion share repurchase program.</p><h2>American Express: $27.2 billion (8.1% of invested assets)</h2><p>The fourth stock that, with Apple, BofA, and Chevron, collectively accounts for 68% of Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s $334 billion of invested assets is credit-services provider <b>American Express</b> (AXP -1.55%). AmEx is Buffett&#39;s second longest-held stock -- 30 years, and counting.</p><p>The macro thesis that guides Buffett&#39;s love of bank stocks pertains to American Express as well. Even though AmEx is susceptible to weakness during recessions, long-winded periods of expansion allow it to grow in lockstep with the U.S. and global economy.</p><p>But it&#39;s American Express&#39;s ability to double-dip that can really supercharge its growth prospects during bull markets. In addition to being one of the largest payment processors in the U.S., AmEx is also a lender. This allows it to collect fees from merchants, as well as annual fees/interest income from its cardholders.</p><p>The downside to playing both sides of the fence is that, as noted, AmEx is exposed to weakness during recessions. However, American Express&#39;s target client tends to play a key role in helping it navigate turbulent waters. Specifically, AmEx does a fantastic job of courting high earners and high-net-worth individuals.</p><p>High earners are less likely than the typical consumer to adjust their spending habits or fail to pay their bill when the U.S. or global economy falters. In other words, American Express can bounce back quicker than a lot of lenders from a bumpy economic outlook.</p><p>Lastly, AmEx has a rock-solid capital-return program. Given Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s exceptionally low cost basis of $8.49 per share of AmEx, the $0.60 quarterly dividend American Express will soon be paying out equates to a better than 28% yield on cost.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>68% of Warren Buffett's $334 Billion Portfolio Is Invested in Only 4 Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n68% of Warren Buffett's $334 Billion Portfolio Is Invested in Only 4 Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-12 07:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/10/68-warren-buffett-portfolio-invested-only-4-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you've ever wondered why investors pay so much attention to what Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -2.33%) (BRK.B -2.10%) CEO Warren Buffett is buying and selling, I can offer nearly 3.8 million reasons....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/10/68-warren-buffett-portfolio-invested-only-4-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - 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Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4097":"系统软件","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/10/68-warren-buffett-portfolio-invested-only-4-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2318205468","content_text":"If you've ever wondered why investors pay so much attention to what Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -2.33%) (BRK.B -2.10%) CEO Warren Buffett is buying and selling, I can offer nearly 3.8 million reasons.Since the Oracle of Omaha took over the role of CEO in 1965, he's created more than $680 billion in value for his company's shareholders (himself included) and delivered an aggregate return on Berkshire's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 3,787,464%. That's 153 times better than the 24,708% total return, including dividends paid, for the widely followed S&P 500 over the same stretch.Investors are constantly dissecting Buffett's strategy with the hope of replicating even a fraction of his outperformance. While many of Buffett's investing traits are well known and credited for his success, such as buying for the long haul and gravitating to dividend stocks, it's his penchant for portfolio concentration that's really paid off.Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.With the belief that diversification is only necessary if you don't know what you're doing, Warren Buffett has put a whopping 68% of Berkshire Hathaway's $334 billion investment portfolio to work in only four stocks.Apple: $138.3 billion (41.4% of invested assets)In the Oracle of Omaha's letter to shareholders published last year, he referred to tech stock Apple (AAPL -1.49%) as one of Berkshire Hathaway's \"four giants.\" Given that this position comprises more than 41% of Berkshire's invested assets, calling it a \"giant\" is a fair assessment.Although Apple's supercharged growth days are now in the past, it continues to be a cash-flow juggernaut driven by innovation. For more than a decade, Apple's physical products have endeared consumers to its brand. Since launching a 5G-capable iPhone during the fourth quarter of 2020, it's been able to command around half of U.S. smartphone market share.Sales of Mac personal computers (PCs) have been climbing, too. After consistently accounting for between 11% and 13% of global PC shipment share for the past nine years, Mac PC shipments jumped to a greater than 17% worldwide share in late 2022.Warren Buffett and his investment team also appreciate Apple's management team. CEO Tim Cook is spearheading an ongoing transformation that's emphasizing subscription services. Subscriptions tend to have high margins and can play a key role in minimizing revenue fluctuations when Apple is upgrading one or more of its physical products.But it's Apple's capital-return program that really gains praise from Buffett. Apple has repurchased in excess of $550 billion of its shares over the past decade and is doling out of the largest nominal-dollar dividends in the world.Bank of America: $35.3 billion (10.6% of invested assets)There's no sector Buffett enjoys putting Berkshire Hathaway's money to work in more than financials. At the moment, no bank stock is more beloved than Bank of America (BAC -6.20%). Aside from Apple, it's the only other stock to account for a double-digit percentage of Berkshire's invested assets.The attraction to bank stocks is that they're natural moneymakers -- as long as you're patient. Even though banks are cyclical and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, banks are able to grow their loans and deposits over time and take advantage of the natural expansion of the U.S. economy.Bank of America's secret sauce is its interest rate sensitivity. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the fastest pace in four decades, no large bank is seeing a larger benefit than BofA. These rate hikes are adding billions of dollars in net interest income each quarter -- and the nation's central bank isn't done hiking rates.Despite its seemingly stodgy disposition, Bank of America is also improving its operating efficiency through investments in digitization. Nearly half of its total sales were completed online or via mobile app during the fourth quarter. As more people shift to online/mobile banking, BofA will have the option of consolidating some of its physical branches and reducing its operating expenses.What's more, bank stocks tend to handsomely reward their shareholders during economic expansions. It's not abnormal for BofA to return $20 billion per year (or perhaps far more) via dividends and share buybacks.Image source: Getty Images.Chevron: $27.6 billion (8.3% of invested assets)Though energy stock Chevron (CVX -1.52%) is one of the newer additions to Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio (held since the fourth quarter of 2020), it wasted no time becoming one of Buffett's largest holdings.The likeliest reason Buffett and his investing lieutenants, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, piled into Chevron is the belief that oil prices would remain elevated for years to come. While a lot of attention has been paid to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the supply issues this invasion creates for Europe, COVID-19 is a far bigger catalyst.Three years of demand uncertainty tied to COVID-19 caused oil and gas companies to pare back their capital expenditures. As a result, crude oil supply is expected to be constrained for years to come. Supply and-demand economics suggests this will provide a lift to the spot price of oil.Though Chevron brings in its juiciest margins from drilling, the Oracle of Omaha can appreciate that it's an integrated operator. Chevron owns transmission pipelines, refineries, and chemical plants, which help it generate predictable cash flow, as well as partially hedge against lower crude oil prices.Among global energy majors, Chevron is also arguably the top dog when it comes to balance sheet health. Substantially higher energy commodity prices allowed Chevron to reduce its net debt in 2022 from $25.7 billion to $5.4 billion.And big oil is known for its sizable capital-return programs. Chevron has increased its base annual dividend for 36 consecutive years, and its board recently authorized an up to $75 billion share repurchase program.American Express: $27.2 billion (8.1% of invested assets)The fourth stock that, with Apple, BofA, and Chevron, collectively accounts for 68% of Berkshire Hathaway's $334 billion of invested assets is credit-services provider American Express (AXP -1.55%). AmEx is Buffett's second longest-held stock -- 30 years, and counting.The macro thesis that guides Buffett's love of bank stocks pertains to American Express as well. Even though AmEx is susceptible to weakness during recessions, long-winded periods of expansion allow it to grow in lockstep with the U.S. and global economy.But it's American Express's ability to double-dip that can really supercharge its growth prospects during bull markets. In addition to being one of the largest payment processors in the U.S., AmEx is also a lender. This allows it to collect fees from merchants, as well as annual fees/interest income from its cardholders.The downside to playing both sides of the fence is that, as noted, AmEx is exposed to weakness during recessions. However, American Express's target client tends to play a key role in helping it navigate turbulent waters. Specifically, AmEx does a fantastic job of courting high earners and high-net-worth individuals.High earners are less likely than the typical consumer to adjust their spending habits or fail to pay their bill when the U.S. or global economy falters. In other words, American Express can bounce back quicker than a lot of lenders from a bumpy economic outlook.Lastly, AmEx has a rock-solid capital-return program. Given Berkshire Hathaway's exceptionally low cost basis of $8.49 per share of AmEx, the $0.60 quarterly dividend American Express will soon be paying out equates to a better than 28% yield on cost.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940290038,"gmtCreate":1677913796125,"gmtModify":1677913799600,"author":{"id":"3582079632440924","authorId":"3582079632440924","name":"Iannn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cafaa5e809ec83a52654c87982f675","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582079632440924","authorIdStr":"3582079632440924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bearish. Beware","listText":"Bearish. Beware","text":"Bearish. Beware","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940290038","repostId":"1188147335","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188147335","pubTimestamp":1677896169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188147335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188147335","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We&#39;ve seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.</li><li>Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&amp;P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.</li><li>However, I&#39;m highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.</li><li>Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.</li><li>Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my &#34;all-in&#34; bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my &#34;Stocks Are Heading Higher&#34; article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.</p><p>Moreover, we&#39;re seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.</p><p>SPX - At Another Inflection Point<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e4c150b976cb211ccb6f5f67170f37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SPX(StockCharts.com)</p><p>The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there&#39;s a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.</p><p><b>There&#39;s a Chance</b></p><p>Although the probability is relatively low, SPX&#39;s support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it&#39;s premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.</p><p>Why Inflation Remains a Big Problem</p><p><b>CPI Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10057ace35cbf6a1921aa9cae02f6d0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI(TradingEconomics.com )</p><p>Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There&#39;s been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed&#39;s target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January&#39;s CPI came in hotter than expected.</p><p><b>The Recent CPI Report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7c22ef79685f6f2789bc39233660b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CPI (January)(Investing.com )</p><p>The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month&#39;s reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it&#39;s not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.</p><p><b>PCE Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100421b03f101dd14bf7039f266d679c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>PCE inflation(Investing.com )</p><p>The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month&#39;s 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it&#39;s the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.</p><p><b>Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?</b></p><p>Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as &#34;transitory&#34; as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.</p><p><b>The Worsening Economy</b></p><p>Have you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they&#39;re not likely to go away anytime soon. Let&#39;s put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that&#39;s come out recently.</p><p>Just from the start of February, we&#39;ve seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.</p><p><b>Is the Labor Market an Exception?</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada4e0ca1e2a60decab85dee6c4f940a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Jobs data(Investing.com)</p><p>The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We&#39;ve recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.</p><p><b>Valuations Are Not Cheap Anymore</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen many companies&#39; earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we&#39;ve seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.</p><p><b>Shiller P/E Ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5c0cae380760ab0af564889c1e421d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Shiller P/E(multpl.com)</p><p>We&#39;ve seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted &#34;CAPE&#34;) ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.</p><p>Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom &#34;all-in&#34; buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188147335","content_text":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.However, I'm highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my \"all-in\" bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my \"Stocks Are Heading Higher\" article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.Moreover, we're seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.SPX - At Another Inflection PointSPX(StockCharts.com)The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there's a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.There's a ChanceAlthough the probability is relatively low, SPX's support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it's premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.Why Inflation Remains a Big ProblemCPI InflationCPI(TradingEconomics.com )Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There's been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed's target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January's CPI came in hotter than expected.The Recent CPI ReportCPI (January)(Investing.com )The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month's reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it's not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.PCE InflationPCE inflation(Investing.com )The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month's 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as \"transitory\" as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.The Worsening EconomyHave you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they're not likely to go away anytime soon. Let's put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that's come out recently.Just from the start of February, we've seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.Is the Labor Market an Exception?Jobs data(Investing.com)The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We've recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.Valuations Are Not Cheap AnymoreWe've seen many companies' earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we've seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E(multpl.com)We've seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted \"CAPE\") ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.The Bottom LineWe've seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom \"all-in\" buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957254856,"gmtCreate":1677319614576,"gmtModify":1677319618135,"author":{"id":"3582079632440924","authorId":"3582079632440924","name":"Iannn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cafaa5e809ec83a52654c87982f675","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582079632440924","authorIdStr":"3582079632440924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957254856","repostId":"2314343613","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2314343613","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1677280410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2314343613?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-25 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Further Fed Hikes Expected After Data Dashes \"Disinflation\" Hopes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2314343613","media":"Reuters","summary":"Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them ele","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them elevated longer than previously projected rose on Friday after data showed a key inflation gauge accelerated last month.</p><p>Even so, Fed policymakers speaking on Friday did not push for a return to the kind of aggressive action that marked last year&#39;s interest-rate hikes, suggesting that for now central bankers are content to stick to a gradual tightening path despite signs that inflation is not cooling as they had hoped.</p><p>The Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the metric by which the Fed measures its 2% inflation target, rose 5.4% last month from a year earlier, a pickup from an upwardly revised 5.3% annual pace in December.</p><p>Underlying &#34;core&#34; inflation climbed a faster-than-expected 4.7% from a year earlier, compared to December&#39;s upwardly revised 4.6% pace.</p><p>The report &#34;is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us,&#34; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in New York. &#34;It&#39;s going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%.&#34;</p><p>Even so, Mester -- who had wanted a half-point hike at the Fed&#39;s last meeting -- said she could not yet say if she would support such a large hike at the Fed&#39;s upcoming meeting.</p><p>She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Earlier on Friday she said she had not revised her view.</p><p>Similarly, none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke on Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said more rate hikes will be needed, but did not specify a particular stopping point.</p><p>Implied yields on federal funds futures contracts rose on Friday as traders firmed up expectations for at least three more rate hikes through June, a path that would push the U.S. central bank&#39;s benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range.</p><p>Pricing also now puts about a 40% chance of an even higher stopping point for that rate, up from about 30% prior to the release of the PCE data.</p><p>And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts toward the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%.</p><p>&#34;There are inflationary pressures in the economy, the level of inflation is still too high, and it&#39;s going to take more on the monetary policy side to get inflation down, Mester said.</p><p>Economic data in recent weeks has generally come in stronger than expected, with job growth still robust and wage gains exceeding what Fed Governor Phillip Jefferson said on Friday was consistent with a timely return to 2% inflation.</p><p>Revisions to data from prior months in Friday&#39;s Commerce Department report showed inflation did not cool in November and December as much as had been thought, and spending in January rose more than expected even as the savings rate increased.</p><p>All told, the economic readings may throw doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s assessment this month that the &#34;disinflationary process&#34; had begun, a view that seemed to justify the central bank&#39;s decision at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting to deliver a quarter-percentage-point rate increase after a string of bigger hikes in 2022.</p><p>&#34;If the Fed had this data at the last meeting, they probably would&#39;ve raised by 50 (basis points) and the tone from the press conference would&#39;ve been a lot different,&#34; said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.</p><p>Goldman said he expects the next round of Fed projections, to be published in March, to signal rates will rise father and stay there longer than previously thought.</p><p>&#34;It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive,&#34; said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>. &#34;They will probably overdo it, in our view, and that will eventually lead to a recession; the question is more like when, not whether, it will be a recession.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Further Fed Hikes Expected After Data Dashes \"Disinflation\" Hopes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFurther Fed Hikes Expected After Data Dashes \"Disinflation\" Hopes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-25 07:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them elevated longer than previously projected rose on Friday after data showed a key inflation gauge accelerated last month.</p><p>Even so, Fed policymakers speaking on Friday did not push for a return to the kind of aggressive action that marked last year&#39;s interest-rate hikes, suggesting that for now central bankers are content to stick to a gradual tightening path despite signs that inflation is not cooling as they had hoped.</p><p>The Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the metric by which the Fed measures its 2% inflation target, rose 5.4% last month from a year earlier, a pickup from an upwardly revised 5.3% annual pace in December.</p><p>Underlying &#34;core&#34; inflation climbed a faster-than-expected 4.7% from a year earlier, compared to December&#39;s upwardly revised 4.6% pace.</p><p>The report &#34;is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us,&#34; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in New York. &#34;It&#39;s going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%.&#34;</p><p>Even so, Mester -- who had wanted a half-point hike at the Fed&#39;s last meeting -- said she could not yet say if she would support such a large hike at the Fed&#39;s upcoming meeting.</p><p>She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Earlier on Friday she said she had not revised her view.</p><p>Similarly, none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke on Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said more rate hikes will be needed, but did not specify a particular stopping point.</p><p>Implied yields on federal funds futures contracts rose on Friday as traders firmed up expectations for at least three more rate hikes through June, a path that would push the U.S. central bank&#39;s benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range.</p><p>Pricing also now puts about a 40% chance of an even higher stopping point for that rate, up from about 30% prior to the release of the PCE data.</p><p>And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts toward the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%.</p><p>&#34;There are inflationary pressures in the economy, the level of inflation is still too high, and it&#39;s going to take more on the monetary policy side to get inflation down, Mester said.</p><p>Economic data in recent weeks has generally come in stronger than expected, with job growth still robust and wage gains exceeding what Fed Governor Phillip Jefferson said on Friday was consistent with a timely return to 2% inflation.</p><p>Revisions to data from prior months in Friday&#39;s Commerce Department report showed inflation did not cool in November and December as much as had been thought, and spending in January rose more than expected even as the savings rate increased.</p><p>All told, the economic readings may throw doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s assessment this month that the &#34;disinflationary process&#34; had begun, a view that seemed to justify the central bank&#39;s decision at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting to deliver a quarter-percentage-point rate increase after a string of bigger hikes in 2022.</p><p>&#34;If the Fed had this data at the last meeting, they probably would&#39;ve raised by 50 (basis points) and the tone from the press conference would&#39;ve been a lot different,&#34; said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.</p><p>Goldman said he expects the next round of Fed projections, to be published in March, to signal rates will rise father and stay there longer than previously thought.</p><p>&#34;It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive,&#34; said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>. &#34;They will probably overdo it, in our view, and that will eventually lead to a recession; the question is more like when, not whether, it will be a recession.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4588":"碎股","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2314343613","content_text":"Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them elevated longer than previously projected rose on Friday after data showed a key inflation gauge accelerated last month.Even so, Fed policymakers speaking on Friday did not push for a return to the kind of aggressive action that marked last year's interest-rate hikes, suggesting that for now central bankers are content to stick to a gradual tightening path despite signs that inflation is not cooling as they had hoped.The Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the metric by which the Fed measures its 2% inflation target, rose 5.4% last month from a year earlier, a pickup from an upwardly revised 5.3% annual pace in December.Underlying \"core\" inflation climbed a faster-than-expected 4.7% from a year earlier, compared to December's upwardly revised 4.6% pace.The report \"is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us,\" Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in New York. \"It's going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%.\"Even so, Mester -- who had wanted a half-point hike at the Fed's last meeting -- said she could not yet say if she would support such a large hike at the Fed's upcoming meeting.She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Earlier on Friday she said she had not revised her view.Similarly, none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke on Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said more rate hikes will be needed, but did not specify a particular stopping point.Implied yields on federal funds futures contracts rose on Friday as traders firmed up expectations for at least three more rate hikes through June, a path that would push the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range.Pricing also now puts about a 40% chance of an even higher stopping point for that rate, up from about 30% prior to the release of the PCE data.And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts toward the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%.\"There are inflationary pressures in the economy, the level of inflation is still too high, and it's going to take more on the monetary policy side to get inflation down, Mester said.Economic data in recent weeks has generally come in stronger than expected, with job growth still robust and wage gains exceeding what Fed Governor Phillip Jefferson said on Friday was consistent with a timely return to 2% inflation.Revisions to data from prior months in Friday's Commerce Department report showed inflation did not cool in November and December as much as had been thought, and spending in January rose more than expected even as the savings rate increased.All told, the economic readings may throw doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assessment this month that the \"disinflationary process\" had begun, a view that seemed to justify the central bank's decision at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting to deliver a quarter-percentage-point rate increase after a string of bigger hikes in 2022.\"If the Fed had this data at the last meeting, they probably would've raised by 50 (basis points) and the tone from the press conference would've been a lot different,\" said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.Goldman said he expects the next round of Fed projections, to be published in March, to signal rates will rise father and stay there longer than previously thought.\"It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive,\" said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas. \"They will probably overdo it, in our view, and that will eventually lead to a recession; the question is more like when, not whether, it will be a recession.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928027076,"gmtCreate":1671153698596,"gmtModify":1676538499858,"author":{"id":"3582079632440924","authorId":"3582079632440924","name":"Iannn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cafaa5e809ec83a52654c87982f675","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582079632440924","authorIdStr":"3582079632440924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>bull trap","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>bull trap","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ bull trap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928027076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916173507,"gmtCreate":1664545914010,"gmtModify":1676537475116,"author":{"id":"3582079632440924","authorId":"3582079632440924","name":"Iannn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cafaa5e809ec83a52654c87982f675","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582079632440924","authorIdStr":"3582079632440924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be careful&nbsp;","listText":"Be careful&nbsp;","text":"Be careful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916173507","repostId":"2271744574","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911015261,"gmtCreate":1664085750853,"gmtModify":1676537388939,"author":{"id":"3582079632440924","authorId":"3582079632440924","name":"Iannn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cafaa5e809ec83a52654c87982f675","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582079632440924","authorIdStr":"3582079632440924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a>More drop to come","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a>More drop to come","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$More drop to 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href=\"https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/mozilla-challenges-anti-market-practices-of-google-apple-microsoft/94429720\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","MSFT":"微软","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4538":"云计算","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实"},"source_url":"https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/mozilla-challenges-anti-market-practices-of-google-apple-microsoft/94429720","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270440415","content_text":"Mozilla 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