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- waanpingwaanping
  ·2021-06-11
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  What's Scarier Than the Inflation Scare? Markets
  Investors are displaying extreme confidence in the Fed’s ability to keep prices under control. A Tr
  What's Scarier Than the Inflation Scare? Markets
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- waanpingwaanping
  ·2021-06-11
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  Palantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value
  Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.It has a powerful A.I. technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.Founded in 2003, Palantir started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed
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Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116807698","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Investors are displaying extreme confidence in the Fed’s ability to keep prices under control.\n\nA Tr","content":"<blockquote>\n Investors are displaying extreme confidence in the Fed’s ability to keep prices under control.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>A Transitory Day</b></p>\n<p>The bets have been placed. At this point, there is lots of money on the notion that U.S. inflation really is only transitory, that Jerome Powell and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve really mean it when they say that inflation is transitory, and that they care more about spurring a rise in employment. These propositions aren’t so far-fetched. But the confidence with which they are now being backed on the market does look most far-fetched, at least to me. This was a day when core inflation in the U.S. was revealed to be running at its fastest in 29 years, and faster than expectations —&nbsp;and yet it also saw the S&amp;P 500 rally to a new all-time high.</p>\n<p>I will try to illustrate&nbsp;how extreme this is. To be clear, we all knew that inflation would rise during these months, thanks to the comparison with the deflationary conditions amid the worst of the pandemic 12 months ago. Everyone had&nbsp;an inflation scare marked in their diaries for about now. Few can have reckoned on the scare dissipating in markets just as the inflation numbers came through on cue and higher than expected. Headline inflation has reached 5% for only the second time in 30 years. It had only been higher during the oil spike of 2008:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d0a266392ea2ee6155351303b9b413\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This may well be transitory, but it’s certainly rather alarming. The market reaction is arguably even more unnerving, and certainly more extreme. If we define real long-term interest rates as the 10-year Treasury yield minus the headline inflation rate (which is the way many people would), then real yields have tanked&nbsp;to minus 3.7%. In the last 70 years, they have only been lower than this in 10 months, all during the worst inflationary years of 1974 and 1980. In other words, real yields are by far their lowest since the Fed under Paul Volcker convinced the market that it could control inflation in the early 1980s. In a way, we have already left the Volcker era of monetary policy:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc65885f7e3ee5ba0a789c298453f98\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>My thanks to Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank AG for pointing out this version of the real yield. If we define it as the yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or&nbsp;TIPS,&nbsp;we get only a slightly less extreme picture. The low on this basis was a few months ago; but yields remain at negative levels that until recently were unimaginable:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdef8804e65f160ca7e6e6e4a335ee2e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>These are critical measures suggesting that financial conditions are exceptionally easy. There is very little insurance here against the risk that&nbsp; inflation proves more durable than many now expect. The Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Conditions index, a broader measure that includes factors such as valuations on stocks and the availability of liquidity and banking finance, has just hit its lowest level since it was started nearly 40 years ago&nbsp;(Bloomberg has a similar index that is slightly above its low):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c975cf967466e8f0c99b3f1fab94d5e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This is an extremely strange set of conditions to combine with the worst inflation print in decades, even if that inflation is transitory. Both bond and equity investors have pushed out the boat a long way.</p>\n<p>This chart from Dario Perkins of TS Lombard in London illustrates the extremity of the bond market nicely. It maps 10-year yields on the vertical scale, against core inflation. Usually, and unsurprisingly, higher inflation tends to mean higher bond yields. The current yield looks like a historic outlier. Arguably, bond yields have never been this tolerant of high inflation. As Perkins suggests in his title, bond markets are putting an awful lot of trust in central banks not to let inflation get going (which would damage longer-term bond returns):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a7a0b9d87199e3d3a976d66d2e0b5c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As for the stock market, I published last week this similar exercise produced by Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd. in London, which puts inflation on the vertical axis and the Shiller price-earnings ratio on the horizontal axis. This produced a relationship you could call the “Inflation Dart” or perhaps preferably “Inflation Concorde.”&nbsp;The relationship between inflation and share valuations isn’t as tight as with bonds, of course, but at present the Shiller P/E is at the historically extreme level of 37 (slightly to the right of the red ring on the chart). In the past, such valuations have only ever been achieved when inflation is positive and very low. With inflation at 5%, the latest reading is a massive outlier. There is no precedent for the stock market being prepared to look through inflation this high and leave multiples at such an elevated level (or indeed set a new all-time record):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6891c57f68faaf4231c0f7a71ac3644\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So markets are staking a lot on the notion that this inflation number itself will prove to be a freakish outlier, soon to be corrected. What is the case that they are right?</p>\n<p><b>Sic Transit Gloria?</b></p>\n<p>There is a good case that these inflation numbers will reduce before long. I would summarize&nbsp;the three main supports as follows:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Much of it is extreme inflation in reopening sectors</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>This has been much discussed, but it is true. Reopening sectors affected by the return of tourism have seen freakishly high inflation which plainly cannot continue much longer. Indeed air fares and car rentals both saw slightly smaller rises in May than in April —&nbsp;although in both cases the rise in prices is eye-watering. Used cars on their own account for about a third of the increase in core inflation. So yes, there are plainly elements of this inflationary episode that owe everything to the pandemic, and that need not require the central bank to take any action:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ed8938de45950af5a6d2458d732611\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Commodity prices have already begun to turn over</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>The rally in commodity prices has driven much of the belief that inflation will take off. This chart shows Bloomberg’s indexes for industrial metals, agricultural commodities, and energy over the last three years. The recent fall in metals prices has received much attention, and the apparent desire of Chinese authorities to clamp down on high producer price inflation increases the downward pressure. Agricultural prices are also off their top. But energy prices are still rising, as is the overall Bloomberg index —&nbsp;and it isn’t yet clear that metals are in a clearly defined downward trend. If commodity prices do fall much further from here, though, that would likely make sure that this inflation episode doesn’t last too long:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63c469d6a4f04fc3fb4e18ad04e3ab8\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Wages are still well under control</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>What drives inflation is expectations —&nbsp;both of inflation, and also wage increases. People get much happier to pay more for stuff when they are expecting better salaries in future. There has been plenty of anecdotal evidence of skill mismatches, while employers complain in surveys that they find it hard to fill vacancies. But evidence of wage pressure isn’t in the official numbers, as yet. Indeed, due to a weird compositional effect, both weekly and hourly average earnings appear to be in serious deflation, having spiked remarkably higher last year. This is because the lowest-paid workers were most likely to be laid off during the pandemic, pushing up the average pay of those who remained, and are now the most likely to be rehired, pushing down the average. This is another obviously transitory effect, and the picture isn’t at all clear yet. But those who believe that this is a transitory episode are right to argue that there is no evidence of wage inflation yet:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe275dd0335f25cefc6be4c54d3f042f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This adds up to a respectable case that this dose of inflation should soon go away. But I would question whether it is strong enough to justify quite such a confident reaction in stock and bond markets.</p>\n<p><b>The International Angle</b></p>\n<p>The inflation print has rippled throughout the world. Declining yields in the U.S. are great news for emerging markets, still damaged by political uncertainty and the ramifications of the pandemic. Emerging market currencies received a pummeling last year. Now, the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is its strongest since last February, before a pandemic had even been proclaimed. The “taper tantrum” of 2013 put acute pressure on a number of emerging currencies, and the sharp rise in U.S. yields at the beginning of this year was possibly the worst tantrum since then; the reduction in U.S. yields in the last&nbsp;few months has substantially reduced the risk of another old-fashioned emerging markets crisis:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7714d9ec9f9ef81b920101ef29d407\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>And then there is the euro. The other big monetary event of the day was the meeting of the European Central Bank, which ended with Christine Lagarde, its president, promising a “steady hand” and committing to“significantly higher” bond purchasesover the next few months. There had been speculation that the ECB, traditionally more conservative about inflation risks than other major central banks, would try to bring down its stimulus a little; it didn’t.</p>\n<p>The combination of the highest inflation number in decades in the U.S. and a surprisingly dovish ECB might have been expected to deliver a sharply higher dollar against the euro, on the back of higher yields. Instead, remarkably, the euro ended the day almost exactly where it started albeit with a few leaps of excitement along the way:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8891e3a8060c4650ffbdd551f76a2c12\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>If American inflation does stay under control then one of the greater risks on the horizon, of an increasingly unbalanced global economy, reduces. A weaker dollar, more likely if U.S. yields do not rise to support it, makes life easier for a lot of people (although it also tends to pump up U.S. inflation by making imports more expensive).</p>\n<p>The market position may be right. But it has to be right both that the Fed stays as easy as it as at present, and that inflation remains under control. We’ve been through the risks of longer-term inflation often enough in recent weeks. Suffice it to say that both bond and stock markets look very confident, probably too confident, that they are right.</p>\n<p><b>Survival Tips</b></p>\n<p>Reasons to be cheerful this weekend? I can think of two. First, European Championship soccer is about to start. International football sometimes feels like an unwelcome distraction to the mega-clubs these days, but there's still nothing like the big international tournaments. With a little luck, this one might turn out to be a coming-out party for the continent after the pandemic. And it might also produce some fun music, like South Africa in 2010 (<i>Waka Waka</i>by Shakira), Italia 1990 (<i>Nessun Dorma</i>, as sung by Pavarotti), or<i>Three Lions</i>of Euro 96 when, as this year, the final was in London. We can only hope.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Scarier Than the Inflation Scare? Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Scarier Than the Inflation Scare? Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 17:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-11/markets-inflation-calm-shows-extreme-confidence-in-fed?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors are displaying extreme confidence in the Fed’s ability to keep prices under control.\n\nA Transitory Day\nThe bets have been placed. At this point, there is lots of money on the notion that U.S...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-11/markets-inflation-calm-shows-extreme-confidence-in-fed?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-11/markets-inflation-calm-shows-extreme-confidence-in-fed?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116807698","content_text":"Investors are displaying extreme confidence in the Fed’s ability to keep prices under control.\n\nA Transitory Day\nThe bets have been placed. At this point, there is lots of money on the notion that U.S. inflation really is only transitory, that Jerome Powell and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve really mean it when they say that inflation is transitory, and that they care more about spurring a rise in employment. These propositions aren’t so far-fetched. But the confidence with which they are now being backed on the market does look most far-fetched, at least to me. This was a day when core inflation in the U.S. was revealed to be running at its fastest in 29 years, and faster than expectations — and yet it also saw the S&P 500 rally to a new all-time high.\nI will try to illustrate how extreme this is. To be clear, we all knew that inflation would rise during these months, thanks to the comparison with the deflationary conditions amid the worst of the pandemic 12 months ago. Everyone had an inflation scare marked in their diaries for about now. Few can have reckoned on the scare dissipating in markets just as the inflation numbers came through on cue and higher than expected. Headline inflation has reached 5% for only the second time in 30 years. It had only been higher during the oil spike of 2008:\n\nThis may well be transitory, but it’s certainly rather alarming. The market reaction is arguably even more unnerving, and certainly more extreme. If we define real long-term interest rates as the 10-year Treasury yield minus the headline inflation rate (which is the way many people would), then real yields have tanked to minus 3.7%. In the last 70 years, they have only been lower than this in 10 months, all during the worst inflationary years of 1974 and 1980. In other words, real yields are by far their lowest since the Fed under Paul Volcker convinced the market that it could control inflation in the early 1980s. In a way, we have already left the Volcker era of monetary policy:\n\nMy thanks to Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank AG for pointing out this version of the real yield. If we define it as the yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, we get only a slightly less extreme picture. The low on this basis was a few months ago; but yields remain at negative levels that until recently were unimaginable:\n\nThese are critical measures suggesting that financial conditions are exceptionally easy. There is very little insurance here against the risk that  inflation proves more durable than many now expect. The Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Conditions index, a broader measure that includes factors such as valuations on stocks and the availability of liquidity and banking finance, has just hit its lowest level since it was started nearly 40 years ago (Bloomberg has a similar index that is slightly above its low):\n\nThis is an extremely strange set of conditions to combine with the worst inflation print in decades, even if that inflation is transitory. Both bond and equity investors have pushed out the boat a long way.\nThis chart from Dario Perkins of TS Lombard in London illustrates the extremity of the bond market nicely. It maps 10-year yields on the vertical scale, against core inflation. Usually, and unsurprisingly, higher inflation tends to mean higher bond yields. The current yield looks like a historic outlier. Arguably, bond yields have never been this tolerant of high inflation. As Perkins suggests in his title, bond markets are putting an awful lot of trust in central banks not to let inflation get going (which would damage longer-term bond returns):\n\nAs for the stock market, I published last week this similar exercise produced by Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd. in London, which puts inflation on the vertical axis and the Shiller price-earnings ratio on the horizontal axis. This produced a relationship you could call the “Inflation Dart” or perhaps preferably “Inflation Concorde.” The relationship between inflation and share valuations isn’t as tight as with bonds, of course, but at present the Shiller P/E is at the historically extreme level of 37 (slightly to the right of the red ring on the chart). In the past, such valuations have only ever been achieved when inflation is positive and very low. With inflation at 5%, the latest reading is a massive outlier. There is no precedent for the stock market being prepared to look through inflation this high and leave multiples at such an elevated level (or indeed set a new all-time record):\n\nSo markets are staking a lot on the notion that this inflation number itself will prove to be a freakish outlier, soon to be corrected. What is the case that they are right?\nSic Transit Gloria?\nThere is a good case that these inflation numbers will reduce before long. I would summarize the three main supports as follows:\n\nMuch of it is extreme inflation in reopening sectors\n\nThis has been much discussed, but it is true. Reopening sectors affected by the return of tourism have seen freakishly high inflation which plainly cannot continue much longer. Indeed air fares and car rentals both saw slightly smaller rises in May than in April — although in both cases the rise in prices is eye-watering. Used cars on their own account for about a third of the increase in core inflation. So yes, there are plainly elements of this inflationary episode that owe everything to the pandemic, and that need not require the central bank to take any action:\n\n\nCommodity prices have already begun to turn over\n\nThe rally in commodity prices has driven much of the belief that inflation will take off. This chart shows Bloomberg’s indexes for industrial metals, agricultural commodities, and energy over the last three years. The recent fall in metals prices has received much attention, and the apparent desire of Chinese authorities to clamp down on high producer price inflation increases the downward pressure. Agricultural prices are also off their top. But energy prices are still rising, as is the overall Bloomberg index — and it isn’t yet clear that metals are in a clearly defined downward trend. If commodity prices do fall much further from here, though, that would likely make sure that this inflation episode doesn’t last too long:\n\n\nWages are still well under control\n\nWhat drives inflation is expectations — both of inflation, and also wage increases. People get much happier to pay more for stuff when they are expecting better salaries in future. There has been plenty of anecdotal evidence of skill mismatches, while employers complain in surveys that they find it hard to fill vacancies. But evidence of wage pressure isn’t in the official numbers, as yet. Indeed, due to a weird compositional effect, both weekly and hourly average earnings appear to be in serious deflation, having spiked remarkably higher last year. This is because the lowest-paid workers were most likely to be laid off during the pandemic, pushing up the average pay of those who remained, and are now the most likely to be rehired, pushing down the average. This is another obviously transitory effect, and the picture isn’t at all clear yet. But those who believe that this is a transitory episode are right to argue that there is no evidence of wage inflation yet:\n\nThis adds up to a respectable case that this dose of inflation should soon go away. But I would question whether it is strong enough to justify quite such a confident reaction in stock and bond markets.\nThe International Angle\nThe inflation print has rippled throughout the world. Declining yields in the U.S. are great news for emerging markets, still damaged by political uncertainty and the ramifications of the pandemic. Emerging market currencies received a pummeling last year. Now, the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is its strongest since last February, before a pandemic had even been proclaimed. The “taper tantrum” of 2013 put acute pressure on a number of emerging currencies, and the sharp rise in U.S. yields at the beginning of this year was possibly the worst tantrum since then; the reduction in U.S. yields in the last few months has substantially reduced the risk of another old-fashioned emerging markets crisis:\n\nAnd then there is the euro. The other big monetary event of the day was the meeting of the European Central Bank, which ended with Christine Lagarde, its president, promising a “steady hand” and committing to“significantly higher” bond purchasesover the next few months. There had been speculation that the ECB, traditionally more conservative about inflation risks than other major central banks, would try to bring down its stimulus a little; it didn’t.\nThe combination of the highest inflation number in decades in the U.S. and a surprisingly dovish ECB might have been expected to deliver a sharply higher dollar against the euro, on the back of higher yields. Instead, remarkably, the euro ended the day almost exactly where it started albeit with a few leaps of excitement along the way:\n\nIf American inflation does stay under control then one of the greater risks on the horizon, of an increasingly unbalanced global economy, reduces. A weaker dollar, more likely if U.S. yields do not rise to support it, makes life easier for a lot of people (although it also tends to pump up U.S. inflation by making imports more expensive).\nThe market position may be right. But it has to be right both that the Fed stays as easy as it as at present, and that inflation remains under control. We’ve been through the risks of longer-term inflation often enough in recent weeks. Suffice it to say that both bond and stock markets look very confident, probably too confident, that they are right.\nSurvival Tips\nReasons to be cheerful this weekend? I can think of two. First, European Championship soccer is about to start. International football sometimes feels like an unwelcome distraction to the mega-clubs these days, but there's still nothing like the big international tournaments. With a little luck, this one might turn out to be a coming-out party for the continent after the pandemic. And it might also produce some fun music, like South Africa in 2010 (Waka Wakaby Shakira), Italia 1990 (Nessun Dorma, as sung by Pavarotti), orThree Lionsof Euro 96 when, as this year, the final was in London. We can only hope.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181450858,"gmtCreate":1623408323774,"gmtModify":1704202783874,"author":{"id":"3583026044457272","authorId":"3583026044457272","name":"waanping","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181450858","repostId":"1113838701","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113838701","pubTimestamp":1623403425,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113838701?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 17:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113838701","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.It has a powerful A.I.  technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.Founded in 2003, Palantir  started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.</li>\n <li>It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.</li>\n <li>I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Company Overview</b></p>\n<p>Founded in 2003, Palantir (PLTR) started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. Both serve as a central operating system and enable customers to integrate their data and operations.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Gotham is a platform constructedprimarily for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. The Gotham platform can also be used by commercial customers (e.g., by the financial services industry in connection with fraud investigations).</li>\n <li>Foundry is a platform used by organizations (e.g., Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF)) to manage a big amount of data involved in complex projects. It transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. Individual users can integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. The speed with which users can experiment and test new ideas is what makes the software stick.</li>\n <li>Apollo is a delivery software that powers Foundry and Gotham platforms and enables them to run in any environment. Apollo aims to provide the latest features in the hands of customers without disrupting operations.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>The company operates worldwide and in particular in the U.S., U.K., France, and other parts of the world. Below I display its revenue breakdown by segment and by geography.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d03eb66b96b4d77da5936226da87d10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest10-K report</i></p>\n<p>Using the trailing twelve-month numbers, we can see that the government segment accounts for 58% (vs. 42% in 2018A) of Palantir's total revenue, while the commercial segment 48%(vs. 57% in 2018A).</p>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share (vs. current price of $24.38/share). As we all know the discounted cash flow model is a valuable tool to assess a company's fair value, however, to be able to implement it we need to make a lot of assumptions. One of those assumptions we have to make is about the company's future growth. But how can we assess the company's future growth? There are different ways in which we accomplish this, but any of this is \"the one.\"</p>\n<p>Usually, the first step we want to take is to assess whether the company possesses a sustainable economic moat. A sustainable economic moat is what distinguishes a leader from a laggard, and it tells us what kind of margin of safety we should require on the stock. The absence of an economic moat translates into a higher margin of safety. It is not an easy task to assess whether the company has one and different approaches can be used. In this case, I would like to do it by analyzing the company's free cash flow, margins, and return on equity. Below, I display the key indicators we need.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3592c45dd11931534a65c171b42df2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p>\n<p>From the numbers displayed above, you can immediately point out that something is not going in the right way. The gross margin (or production profitability) is fine and it is equal at 69.9% 2021TTM, however, the operating margin is not fine at all, and it is equal to -101.1% (we can observe the same picture looking at the net margin). In fact, if we look at the operating expenses as a % of revenues, we can find that this number is equal to 171%. Below I display the results.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb6af16f471180179056796c4f30820d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p>\n<p>Next, as we can expect from these numbers, ROE is a negative number. A negative ROE tells us that the company is destroying value to its shareholders. What about free cash flow margin? We can observe, more or less, the same pattern as with operating margins. Further, by looking at the cash flow statement deeper we can find out a very clear pattern - the company brings in cash by issuing every year more shares. It is usually seen as a red flag when looking at the company cash flow statement we find out that the primary pump for the company's cash flow is not the cash flow from operating activities. Overall, any of these metrics seem to suggest that a company has a sustainable economic moat.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe7d504567011f28eb91b3e31fe1cd8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p>\n<p>In the discounted cash flow model I used as the base year numbers the trailing twelve months numbers. For the top line (revenues), I assumed a growth rate of 49% for the next year, in line with the current revenue growth pattern and the new unfolding opportunities. For the Y2-Y5, I assumed a CAGR of 30%, this is what I believe is a reasonable growth rate. I allow the company to grow with a sales to capital ratio of 1.02 (90th percentile vs peers) and with a current WACC of 6.9%.</p>\n<p>I assumed an operating margin for the next year equal to -67% and a target operating margin of 31.2% (85th percentile vs peers). If you are wondering who are the peers which I used to make my assumption, well, those are companies like Alteryx (AYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), etc.</p>\n<p>A lot of investors seem to believe that there is a hidden value in Palantir and they put unrealistic assumptions to justify their findings. Even if there may be one, the dilution effect is keeping the stock from going higher. Investors don't seem to understand this and the company rides the wave by issuing more shares at an unjustified price.</p>\n<p>The central value ($7.34/share) that you can see in my sensitivity analysis is what I found as a fair value using my DCF model, while the prices in the green area are prices that may be justified (even if it is hard to assume such a high CAGR, perhaps unrealistic). The sensitivity analysis is intentionally skewed to the right since there are more bulls than bears in the room.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689c747c7d01668b6d6978063ee0ce3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:<i>Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</i></p>\n<p>Using my assumptions, I found that the fair value for the company according to the DCF model is $7.34/share. Now you may say, this is not the same fair value I stated at the beginning. Totally right, you caught me. The fair value that I assign to the company is equal to $14.45/share which is an algorithm-based estimate which accounts for different factors, among others: DCF-based fair value, momentum, etc.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Palantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations. The company seems to understand it and it rides the wave by diluting shareholders' equity. I don't like to see such moves from the company, and even if the company may offer some price appreciation, the risk is not worth the bet (unless you like gambling, do you?).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Dilution Adjusted Value\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 17:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434192-palantir-a-dilution-adjusted-value><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.\nIt has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434192-palantir-a-dilution-adjusted-value\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434192-palantir-a-dilution-adjusted-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113838701","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments.\nIt has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations.\nI initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share.\n\nCompany Overview\nFounded in 2003, Palantir (PLTR) started building a software platform for the intelligence community and later expanded to the commercial space. To this mean, two principal software platforms have been developed, Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. Both serve as a central operating system and enable customers to integrate their data and operations.\n\nGotham is a platform constructedprimarily for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants. The Gotham platform can also be used by commercial customers (e.g., by the financial services industry in connection with fraud investigations).\nFoundry is a platform used by organizations (e.g., Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF)) to manage a big amount of data involved in complex projects. It transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. Individual users can integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. The speed with which users can experiment and test new ideas is what makes the software stick.\nApollo is a delivery software that powers Foundry and Gotham platforms and enables them to run in any environment. Apollo aims to provide the latest features in the hands of customers without disrupting operations.\n\nThe company operates worldwide and in particular in the U.S., U.K., France, and other parts of the world. Below I display its revenue breakdown by segment and by geography.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nUsing the trailing twelve-month numbers, we can see that the government segment accounts for 58% (vs. 42% in 2018A) of Palantir's total revenue, while the commercial segment 48%(vs. 57% in 2018A).\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Palantir with a Bearish rating and a fair price of $14.45/share (vs. current price of $24.38/share). As we all know the discounted cash flow model is a valuable tool to assess a company's fair value, however, to be able to implement it we need to make a lot of assumptions. One of those assumptions we have to make is about the company's future growth. But how can we assess the company's future growth? There are different ways in which we accomplish this, but any of this is \"the one.\"\nUsually, the first step we want to take is to assess whether the company possesses a sustainable economic moat. A sustainable economic moat is what distinguishes a leader from a laggard, and it tells us what kind of margin of safety we should require on the stock. The absence of an economic moat translates into a higher margin of safety. It is not an easy task to assess whether the company has one and different approaches can be used. In this case, I would like to do it by analyzing the company's free cash flow, margins, and return on equity. Below, I display the key indicators we need.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nFrom the numbers displayed above, you can immediately point out that something is not going in the right way. The gross margin (or production profitability) is fine and it is equal at 69.9% 2021TTM, however, the operating margin is not fine at all, and it is equal to -101.1% (we can observe the same picture looking at the net margin). In fact, if we look at the operating expenses as a % of revenues, we can find that this number is equal to 171%. Below I display the results.\n\nSourceAuthor's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNext, as we can expect from these numbers, ROE is a negative number. A negative ROE tells us that the company is destroying value to its shareholders. What about free cash flow margin? We can observe, more or less, the same pattern as with operating margins. Further, by looking at the cash flow statement deeper we can find out a very clear pattern - the company brings in cash by issuing every year more shares. It is usually seen as a red flag when looking at the company cash flow statement we find out that the primary pump for the company's cash flow is not the cash flow from operating activities. Overall, any of these metrics seem to suggest that a company has a sustainable economic moat.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIn the discounted cash flow model I used as the base year numbers the trailing twelve months numbers. For the top line (revenues), I assumed a growth rate of 49% for the next year, in line with the current revenue growth pattern and the new unfolding opportunities. For the Y2-Y5, I assumed a CAGR of 30%, this is what I believe is a reasonable growth rate. I allow the company to grow with a sales to capital ratio of 1.02 (90th percentile vs peers) and with a current WACC of 6.9%.\nI assumed an operating margin for the next year equal to -67% and a target operating margin of 31.2% (85th percentile vs peers). If you are wondering who are the peers which I used to make my assumption, well, those are companies like Alteryx (AYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), etc.\nA lot of investors seem to believe that there is a hidden value in Palantir and they put unrealistic assumptions to justify their findings. Even if there may be one, the dilution effect is keeping the stock from going higher. Investors don't seem to understand this and the company rides the wave by issuing more shares at an unjustified price.\nThe central value ($7.34/share) that you can see in my sensitivity analysis is what I found as a fair value using my DCF model, while the prices in the green area are prices that may be justified (even if it is hard to assume such a high CAGR, perhaps unrealistic). The sensitivity analysis is intentionally skewed to the right since there are more bulls than bears in the room.\n\nSource:Author's Estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nUsing my assumptions, I found that the fair value for the company according to the DCF model is $7.34/share. Now you may say, this is not the same fair value I stated at the beginning. Totally right, you caught me. The fair value that I assign to the company is equal to $14.45/share which is an algorithm-based estimate which accounts for different factors, among others: DCF-based fair value, momentum, etc.\nFinal Thoughts\nPalantir is a high-growth company that operates worldwide in both commercial and government segments. It has a powerful A.I. (Cognitive Computing) technology, however, having an A.I. seems to become a buzzword to justify skyrocket valuations. The company seems to understand it and it rides the wave by diluting shareholders' equity. I don't like to see such moves from the company, and even if the company may offer some price appreciation, the risk is not worth the bet (unless you like gambling, do you?).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}