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DIckson

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- DIcksonDIckson
  ·2022-06-30
  Why does tiger trade have so much nonsense article?
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- DIcksonDIckson
  ·2022-05-24
  Constructive article
  Tesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger
  SummaryTesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai s
  Tesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger
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- DIcksonDIckson
  ·2022-05-19
  Bullshit article
  Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will
  Tesla stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan ofTesla or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand forelectric vehicles , like China and Europe, Te
  Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will
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- DIcksonDIckson
  ·2022-05-10
  There is an lockdown in Shanghai...
  Tesla April China Sales Hit Rock Bottom, Underperform Industry
  Tesla, Inc.'s TSLA China sales plummeted in April, and the magnitude of underperformance would have disappointed even the most pessimistic of forecasts. Expectations were muted, going into the data re
  Tesla April China Sales Hit Rock Bottom, Underperform Industry
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- DIcksonDIckson
  ·2022-05-08
  So if Tesla is an automotive company, while They still do FSD, solar and Tesla bot. So Apple is a computer company or a phone company? Same as Samsung. I don't think you just choose product and narrow it down
  Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company
  SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu
  Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company
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- DIcksonDIckson
  ·2022-01-20
  Nonsense.
  Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022
  The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.
  Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022
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Motley Fool is still highly held whether or not you believe their articles.","text":"Articles are taken from popular distributions. Motley Fool is still highly held whether or not you believe their articles.","html":"Articles are taken from popular distributions. Motley Fool is still highly held whether or not you believe their articles."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026257496,"gmtCreate":1653392791515,"gmtModify":1676535273040,"author":{"id":"3583718116203251","authorId":"3583718116203251","name":"DIckson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583718116203251","authorIdStr":"3583718116203251"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Constructive article&nbsp;","listText":"Constructive article&nbsp;","text":"Constructive article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026257496","repostId":"2237691633","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2237691633","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653376916,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237691633?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 15:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237691633","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryTesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai still operated with a single shift and at 45% capacity.</li><li>Therefore, the consensus estimates have been revised downwards to reflect the weaker outlook in its production and deliveries. Investors need to pay attention to its double shift resumption.</li><li>Our price action analysis suggests that a potential bottom could occur. However, a reversal signal is still pending. Otherwise, a fall to $550 is possible.</li><li>We revise our rating from Hold to Buy. We believe the risk/reward profile has improved markedly from April.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c27a0eac9a28bef79be0b62ea6e94f9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images News</span></p><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has seen its stock battered after forming a top in early April. The market makers drew in unsuspecting investors who were optimistic going into its FQ1 earnings card.</p><p>We presented in our previous article that TSLA stock looked overvalued post-earnings. However, we also emphasized to investors not to underestimate the headwinds from its Q2 snarls, given Tesla&#39;s significant manufacturing exposure in China. Also, we highlighted that higher raw materials costs might not have been factored in adequately. Furthermore, Giga Berlin and Texas are still early in their ramp. Therefore, replacing those lost units from Shanghai would be highly challenging, even with Fremont going overtime.</p><p>Consequently, the weaker recovery in ramp from Giga Shanghai has impacted its Q2 forecasts. As a result, the consensus estimates have been revised markedly to reflect Tesla&#39;s weaker than expected deliveries and production.</p><p>Our price action analysis suggests that TSLA stock is at a near-term bottom. While it has no bear-trap reversal signal yet, we are confident that the current bottom would hold. Notably, TSLA stock last traded at an NTM normalized P/E of 51.28x. Moreover, at its deep retracements in 2019 and 2020, TSLA stock held its bottom at around the 50x P/E mark. Therefore, we think the risk/reward seems to be on the upside, as long as Shanghai&#39;s ramp recovery remains on track.</p><p>Accordingly, we revise our rating on TSLA stock from Hold to Buy, as we believe the risk/reward profile has improved significantly.</p><p><b>Revised Estimates Reflect Q2&#39;s Uncertainties</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c389c151bdc6da19cea022d761f1e0b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Tesla revenue change % and EBIT margins % consensus estimates (TIKR)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccf58d3ea7239371fbcef2ea53c31fb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Tesla GAAP EPS comps (TIKR)</span></p><p>Tesla&#39;s FQ2 estimates have been revised further downwards from April. We think it&#39;s justified because Tesla&#39;s Shanghai manufacturing capacity has been significantly impacted. Based on the latest updates, Giga Shanghai could be in a closed-loop system until mid-June. However, it has been unable to shift to a higher gear with a double shift system, as the plant operated at 45% capacity. Bloomberg reported that the second shift could resume this week. Therefore, we urge investors to pay attention to updates regarding the resumption of the second shift. It&#39;s critical to recover its manufacturing cadence while Berlin and Texas continue their early ramp.</p><p>As a result, the consensus estimates over its Q2 deliveries outlook have shrunk by more than 20%, from 350K (pre-lockdowns) to 277K. Consequently, Tesla&#39;s revenue growth estimates for FQ2 have also been revised to 50.8%, down from 58.5% in April. It also represents a significant downtick from Q1&#39;s 80.5% growth. Furthermore, its EBIT margins have also been impacted, down slightly from April estimates of 14.8% to 14.6%.</p><p>Notably, its GAAP EPS estimates have also been revised downwards from April&#39;s $1.94 (up 90.1% YoY) to $1.85 (up 81.1% YoY). Hence, we believe the reaction in the market is justified, as the market needs to price in the uncertainties in Q2.</p><p>Notwithstanding, the Street expects Tesla to pick up the pace rapidly in H2&#39;22. Tesla is expected to compensate for its Q2&#39;s snarls in H2, with its revenue and EPS estimates upgraded. Therefore, the Street expects the impact to be isolated to Q2 and not structural.</p><p>Nevertheless, we remain cautiously optimistic over its prospects in H2. Shanghai has started to reopen for business, with the city planning to restore more normal life and operations by the end of June. Therefore, we believe that the prognosis is favorable, but we urge investors to continue monitoring the lockdowns situation in China.</p><p><b>Price Action Is Constructive</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd63437c568674bb7c92bf35e2b5b260\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TSLA stock price chart (TradingView)</span></p><p>TSLA stock has a series of astute bull traps designed by the market makers to draw in buyers at the top, as seen above. We believe the market is still digesting the steep gains from Q4&#39;21, leading to the bull trap seen in October 2021.</p><p>The market also set a series of intermediate traps in January and April. Therefore, investors are urged to pay close attention to TSLA stock price action and avoid adding near those traps shown above.</p><p>However, the stock is currently testing a significant support zone and could form a double-bottom bear trap. Notwithstanding, it remains tentative, with no price action reversal signal yet. Investors should note that the potential for a fall to $550 is possible if the current level fails to hold.</p><p><b>Tesla&#39;s Valuation Is More Attractive Than April</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75120c602cb10783f325ae6268619166\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TSLA stock NTM normalized P/E and NTM normalized EPS (TIKR)</span></p><p>TSLA stock last traded at an NTM normalized P/E of 51.28x. Notably, the 50 P/E metric has marked a bottom in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Therefore, the market could support TSLA stock at the current levels. Furthermore, Tesla&#39;s adjusted EPS consensus estimates have continued to rise robustly, undergirding its valuation.</p><p>Therefore, we think the valuation of TSLA stock makes more sense now.</p><p><b>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><i>We revise our rating on TSLA stock from Hold to Buy</i>. Our fundamental thesis is based on Shanghai lockdowns not worsening from here, helping Giga Shanghai to resume its two shifts cadence soon. Our price action analysis suggests a potential double bottom bear trap but has not been validated yet. So, more conservative investors may want to wait before pulling the buy trigger. Otherwise, a fall to the $550 level is possible before a reversal occurs.</p><p>We also think that TSLA stock at around 50x NTM normalized P/E is a more attractive valuation as it had held the level in its previous deep retracements.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-24 15:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513916-tesla-time-to-pull-buy-trigger><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai still operated with a single shift and at 45% capacity.Therefore, the consensus estimates have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513916-tesla-time-to-pull-buy-trigger\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513916-tesla-time-to-pull-buy-trigger","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237691633","content_text":"SummaryTesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai still operated with a single shift and at 45% capacity.Therefore, the consensus estimates have been revised downwards to reflect the weaker outlook in its production and deliveries. Investors need to pay attention to its double shift resumption.Our price action analysis suggests that a potential bottom could occur. However, a reversal signal is still pending. Otherwise, a fall to $550 is possible.We revise our rating from Hold to Buy. We believe the risk/reward profile has improved markedly from April.Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has seen its stock battered after forming a top in early April. The market makers drew in unsuspecting investors who were optimistic going into its FQ1 earnings card.We presented in our previous article that TSLA stock looked overvalued post-earnings. However, we also emphasized to investors not to underestimate the headwinds from its Q2 snarls, given Tesla's significant manufacturing exposure in China. Also, we highlighted that higher raw materials costs might not have been factored in adequately. Furthermore, Giga Berlin and Texas are still early in their ramp. Therefore, replacing those lost units from Shanghai would be highly challenging, even with Fremont going overtime.Consequently, the weaker recovery in ramp from Giga Shanghai has impacted its Q2 forecasts. As a result, the consensus estimates have been revised markedly to reflect Tesla's weaker than expected deliveries and production.Our price action analysis suggests that TSLA stock is at a near-term bottom. While it has no bear-trap reversal signal yet, we are confident that the current bottom would hold. Notably, TSLA stock last traded at an NTM normalized P/E of 51.28x. Moreover, at its deep retracements in 2019 and 2020, TSLA stock held its bottom at around the 50x P/E mark. Therefore, we think the risk/reward seems to be on the upside, as long as Shanghai's ramp recovery remains on track.Accordingly, we revise our rating on TSLA stock from Hold to Buy, as we believe the risk/reward profile has improved significantly.Revised Estimates Reflect Q2's UncertaintiesTesla revenue change % and EBIT margins % consensus estimates (TIKR)Tesla GAAP EPS comps (TIKR)Tesla's FQ2 estimates have been revised further downwards from April. We think it's justified because Tesla's Shanghai manufacturing capacity has been significantly impacted. Based on the latest updates, Giga Shanghai could be in a closed-loop system until mid-June. However, it has been unable to shift to a higher gear with a double shift system, as the plant operated at 45% capacity. Bloomberg reported that the second shift could resume this week. Therefore, we urge investors to pay attention to updates regarding the resumption of the second shift. It's critical to recover its manufacturing cadence while Berlin and Texas continue their early ramp.As a result, the consensus estimates over its Q2 deliveries outlook have shrunk by more than 20%, from 350K (pre-lockdowns) to 277K. Consequently, Tesla's revenue growth estimates for FQ2 have also been revised to 50.8%, down from 58.5% in April. It also represents a significant downtick from Q1's 80.5% growth. Furthermore, its EBIT margins have also been impacted, down slightly from April estimates of 14.8% to 14.6%.Notably, its GAAP EPS estimates have also been revised downwards from April's $1.94 (up 90.1% YoY) to $1.85 (up 81.1% YoY). Hence, we believe the reaction in the market is justified, as the market needs to price in the uncertainties in Q2.Notwithstanding, the Street expects Tesla to pick up the pace rapidly in H2'22. Tesla is expected to compensate for its Q2's snarls in H2, with its revenue and EPS estimates upgraded. Therefore, the Street expects the impact to be isolated to Q2 and not structural.Nevertheless, we remain cautiously optimistic over its prospects in H2. Shanghai has started to reopen for business, with the city planning to restore more normal life and operations by the end of June. Therefore, we believe that the prognosis is favorable, but we urge investors to continue monitoring the lockdowns situation in China.Price Action Is ConstructiveTSLA stock price chart (TradingView)TSLA stock has a series of astute bull traps designed by the market makers to draw in buyers at the top, as seen above. We believe the market is still digesting the steep gains from Q4'21, leading to the bull trap seen in October 2021.The market also set a series of intermediate traps in January and April. Therefore, investors are urged to pay close attention to TSLA stock price action and avoid adding near those traps shown above.However, the stock is currently testing a significant support zone and could form a double-bottom bear trap. Notwithstanding, it remains tentative, with no price action reversal signal yet. Investors should note that the potential for a fall to $550 is possible if the current level fails to hold.Tesla's Valuation Is More Attractive Than AprilTSLA stock NTM normalized P/E and NTM normalized EPS (TIKR)TSLA stock last traded at an NTM normalized P/E of 51.28x. Notably, the 50 P/E metric has marked a bottom in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Therefore, the market could support TSLA stock at the current levels. Furthermore, Tesla's adjusted EPS consensus estimates have continued to rise robustly, undergirding its valuation.Therefore, we think the valuation of TSLA stock makes more sense now.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We revise our rating on TSLA stock from Hold to Buy. Our fundamental thesis is based on Shanghai lockdowns not worsening from here, helping Giga Shanghai to resume its two shifts cadence soon. Our price action analysis suggests a potential double bottom bear trap but has not been validated yet. So, more conservative investors may want to wait before pulling the buy trigger. Otherwise, a fall to the $550 level is possible before a reversal occurs.We also think that TSLA stock at around 50x NTM normalized P/E is a more attractive valuation as it had held the level in its previous deep retracements.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023442988,"gmtCreate":1652954522044,"gmtModify":1676535195658,"author":{"id":"3583718116203251","authorId":"3583718116203251","name":"DIckson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583718116203251","authorIdStr":"3583718116203251"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullshit article&nbsp;","listText":"Bullshit article&nbsp;","text":"Bullshit article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023442988","repostId":"1152395035","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152395035","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652974277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152395035?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152395035","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Tesla stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer  Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan ofTesla or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand forelectric vehicles , like China and Europe, Te","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Tesla</b>(<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.</li><li>The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.</li><li>Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.</li></ul><p>I am not a fan of <b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) or TSLA stock.</p><p>I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.</p><p>But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when <b>Chevrolet</b> is what the people want?</p><p>Dances With Bulls</p><p>If I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.</p><p>Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.</p><p>Bulls think Tesla is <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.</p><p>Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a <b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TM</u></b>) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even <b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GM</u></b>) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.</p><p>Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.</p><p>The Great Replacement</p><p>A walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.</p><p>Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.</p><p>Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.</p><p>Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, <b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCMKTS:<b><u>VWAGY</u></b>) and <b>Stellantis</b>(NYSE:<b><u>STLA</u></b>) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.</p><p>The Bottom Line on TSLA Stock</p><p>Bulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy <b>Twitter</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TWTR</u></b>) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.</p><p>The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.</p><p>Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.</p><p>My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Never Bought it and Never Will</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Never Bought it and Never Will\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/tsla-stock-never-bought-it-and-never-will/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152395035","content_text":"Tesla(TSLA) stock is overvalued and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Elon Musk is bored.The company has yet to begin planning on a true mass market car.Tesla loses share wherever the middle class gets into the electric revolution.I am not a fan of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) or TSLA stock.I question the basic bull thesis. Having taken the luxury end of the market, the theory goes that Tesla can take the mass market by simply scaling up.But in markets where there is mass market demand for electric vehicles (EVs), like China and Europe, Tesla’s market share is dropping. The mass market doesn’t need huge batteries, fancy fittings, or a $50,000 price tag. Why pay 18 times revenue to own Cadillac when Chevrolet is what the people want?Dances With BullsIf I am right, Tesla is overvalued. Tesla is getting fat on the cream of the market when any dairyman knows the big sales are in low fat milk.Tesla is indeed getting fat. Tesla bears turned into bulls after first quarter numbers came out. Tesla earned $3.3 billion, $2.86/share under GAAP, on first quarter revenue of $18.7 billion. Auto revenues were 87% ahead of a year earlier. But they were just 5% ahead of the previous quarter.Bulls think Tesla is Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), that it has the market sewn up. They say there will be haves and have-nots in the new tech market and Tesla will be one of the haves. They see continuing supply chain worries and assume Tesla will surmount them while rivals won’t.Tesla has taught its industry many lessons, but the lessons are being learned. Buy a Toyota(NYSE:TM) today and you’ll be faced with a host of services aimed at tying you to the brand. For car dealers, service and support are where the money is. Even General Motors(NYSE:GM) has learned that you build your full line off one platform to keep costs down and focus on battery supply.Despite Tesla’s pretensions, in other words, it’s a car company. No car company is worth 18 times its revenue.The Great ReplacementA walk around my middle-class neighborhood tells the story. The “Great Replacement” today isn’t people quitting their jobs. It’s replacing America’s gas-guzzling fleet with EVs.Tesla made the big jump look cool. We have two Teslas on my block. But for most people it’s still a question of small steps. That’s why I recently became the fifth homeowner on my street to buy a Toyota hybrid. It cuts my gas use in half, but I don’t have to worry about finding a plug in the middle of West Virginia. It also cost half what a Tesla costs.Cars with plugs, like Tesla, still represent just 5% of the U.S. car market. Hybrids are where the growth is in today’s mass market, which is dominated by Japanese, Korean and Chinese names.Tesla’s market share in China is falling. In Europe, Volkswagen(OTCMKTS:VWAGY) and Stellantis(NYSE:STLA) now have bigger shares of the plug-in market.The Bottom Line on TSLA StockBulls look at CEO Elon Musk’s effort to buy Twitter(NASDAQ:TWTR) and worry that might distract him. They even bought Tesla when it seemed he might back off the Twitter purchase.The Twitter saga tells me Musk is bored. Tesla is being run by car guys. The great strategic cut-and-thrust is mostly over. He wants to do something else. So don’t buy or sell Tesla stock based on Musk.Look at the fundamentals. In the near term, they’re great, but you’re overpaying. In the longer run, they’re troubled, which is why even tech whisperer Cathie Woods has been loading up on GM stock.My bottom line: Don’t go near Tesla until it can make a Chevy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065873491,"gmtCreate":1652179163713,"gmtModify":1676535046428,"author":{"id":"3583718116203251","authorId":"3583718116203251","name":"DIckson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583718116203251","authorIdStr":"3583718116203251"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There is an lockdown in Shanghai...","listText":"There is an lockdown in Shanghai...","text":"There is an lockdown in Shanghai...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065873491","repostId":"1198722454","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198722454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652177135,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198722454?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 18:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla April China Sales Hit Rock Bottom, Underperform Industry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198722454","media":"benzinga","summary":"Tesla, Inc.'s TSLA China sales plummeted in April, and the magnitude of underperformance would have disappointed even the most pessimistic of forecasts. Expectations were muted, going into the data re","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s TSLA China sales plummeted in April, and the magnitude of underperformance would have disappointed even the most pessimistic of forecasts. Expectations were muted, going into the data release, given the extended shutdown of the Giga Shangai during the month to fall in line with the COVID-19 restrictions in place.</p><p>What Happened: Tesla&#39;s Giga Shanghai produced 10,757 vehicles in April and sold 1,512 vehicles domestically, Reuters reported, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association.</p><p>The company did not export any vehicles during the month, going against the norms of focusing on exports in the first half of the quarter.</p><p>In March, Tesla delivered 65,814 Giga-Shanghai-made cars, out of which 60 units were exported and the remaining 65,754 vehicles were sold in China. The strong numbers came despite a 2-day disruption in the middle of the month and another toward the end of the month.</p><p>The year-over-year comparison also shows a decline from the 40,019 units sold in April 2021, comprising domestic sales of 25,845 units and exports of 14,174 units.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s dismal showing in April is in contrast to the fairly strong performance of the industry. CPCA data showed that retail sales of new energy vehicles, a term used for denoting both battery EVs and plug-in hybrids, increased 78.4% year-over-year in China in April. EV sales climbed 63.3%.</p><p>Why It&#39;s Important: Tesla&#39;s production was disrupted for about three weeks in April due to the COVID-19 lockdowns that forced shuttering of its Giga Shanghai plant. EV makers also faced component shortages amid the intensification of geopolitical tensions.</p><p>But this did not deter Warren Buffett-backed BYD Company Limited BYDDF from reporting a strong April performance. The company produced and sold 57,593 and 57,403 EVs, respectively in April.</p><p>Other EV startups such as Nio, Inc. NIO, XPeng, Inc. XPEV and Li Auto, Inc. LI did see a pullback, but delivered 5,074, 9,002, and 4,167 units, respectively, for the month.</p><p>In premarket trading, Tuesday, Tesla stock was seen rising 2.58% to $807.42.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2fa1b6a9070ed2f82b29fa6b6bc518\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"651\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla April China Sales Hit Rock Bottom, Underperform Industry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla April China Sales Hit Rock Bottom, Underperform Industry\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-10 18:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/05/27099926/tesla-april-china-sales-hit-rock-bottom-amid-lockdowns-and-supply-challenges-underperforms-industry><strong>benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.'s TSLA China sales plummeted in April, and the magnitude of underperformance would have disappointed even the most pessimistic of forecasts. Expectations were muted, going into the data ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/05/27099926/tesla-april-china-sales-hit-rock-bottom-amid-lockdowns-and-supply-challenges-underperforms-industry\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/05/27099926/tesla-april-china-sales-hit-rock-bottom-amid-lockdowns-and-supply-challenges-underperforms-industry","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198722454","content_text":"Tesla, Inc.'s TSLA China sales plummeted in April, and the magnitude of underperformance would have disappointed even the most pessimistic of forecasts. Expectations were muted, going into the data release, given the extended shutdown of the Giga Shangai during the month to fall in line with the COVID-19 restrictions in place.What Happened: Tesla's Giga Shanghai produced 10,757 vehicles in April and sold 1,512 vehicles domestically, Reuters reported, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association.The company did not export any vehicles during the month, going against the norms of focusing on exports in the first half of the quarter.In March, Tesla delivered 65,814 Giga-Shanghai-made cars, out of which 60 units were exported and the remaining 65,754 vehicles were sold in China. The strong numbers came despite a 2-day disruption in the middle of the month and another toward the end of the month.The year-over-year comparison also shows a decline from the 40,019 units sold in April 2021, comprising domestic sales of 25,845 units and exports of 14,174 units.Tesla's dismal showing in April is in contrast to the fairly strong performance of the industry. CPCA data showed that retail sales of new energy vehicles, a term used for denoting both battery EVs and plug-in hybrids, increased 78.4% year-over-year in China in April. EV sales climbed 63.3%.Why It's Important: Tesla's production was disrupted for about three weeks in April due to the COVID-19 lockdowns that forced shuttering of its Giga Shanghai plant. EV makers also faced component shortages amid the intensification of geopolitical tensions.But this did not deter Warren Buffett-backed BYD Company Limited BYDDF from reporting a strong April performance. The company produced and sold 57,593 and 57,403 EVs, respectively in April.Other EV startups such as Nio, Inc. NIO, XPeng, Inc. XPEV and Li Auto, Inc. LI did see a pullback, but delivered 5,074, 9,002, and 4,167 units, respectively, for the month.In premarket trading, Tuesday, Tesla stock was seen rising 2.58% to $807.42.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062906843,"gmtCreate":1651982819182,"gmtModify":1676535008705,"author":{"id":"3583718116203251","authorId":"3583718116203251","name":"DIckson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583718116203251","authorIdStr":"3583718116203251"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So if Tesla is an automotive company, while They&nbsp;still do&nbsp;FSD, solar and Tesla bot.&nbsp;So Apple is a computer company or a phone company? Same as Samsung.&nbsp;I don't think you just choose product and narrow it down&nbsp;","listText":"So if Tesla is an automotive company, while They&nbsp;still do&nbsp;FSD, solar and Tesla bot.&nbsp;So Apple is a computer company or a phone company? Same as Samsung.&nbsp;I don't think you just choose product and narrow it down&nbsp;","text":"So if Tesla is an automotive company, while They still do FSD, solar and Tesla bot. So Apple is a computer company or a phone company? Same as Samsung. I don't think you just choose product and narrow it down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062906843","repostId":"1131831539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131831539?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul><p>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.</p><p>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.</p><p>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.</p><p><b>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector</b></p><p>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.</p><p>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo</p><p>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.</p><p>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>www.goodcarbadcar.net</p><p><b>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One</b></p><p>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.</p><p>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.</p><p>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:</p><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul><p>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.</p><p>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.</p><p>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha</p><p>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.</p><p>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.</p><p>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.</p><p>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.</p><p>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.</p><p>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).</p><p>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.</p><p><b>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line</b></p><p>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.</p><p>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.</p><p>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.</p><p>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.</p><p>Which Features Come With My Subscription?</p><blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.</i></blockquote><p>The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.</p><p>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.</p><p>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.</p><p>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?</p><p><b>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care</b></p><p>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.</p><p>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.</p><p>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.</p><p><b>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates</b></p><p>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.</p><p>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).</p><p>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.</p><p>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.</p><p>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.</p><p>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.</p><p>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.</p><p>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.</p><p>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-08 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004433092,"gmtCreate":1642653961818,"gmtModify":1676533732593,"author":{"id":"3583718116203251","authorId":"3583718116203251","name":"DIckson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583718116203251","authorIdStr":"3583718116203251"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense.","listText":"Nonsense.","text":"Nonsense.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004433092","repostId":"2204056629","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2204056629","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642637895,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2204056629?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2204056629","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Tesla</b>&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the top-performing stocks in the market during that timespan. The company has scaled out its electric vehicle business, sports a market cap north of $1 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world. Everything has come up in favor of Tesla recently. But for owners of the stock, the future does not look nearly as bright.</p><p>Here&#39;s why Tesla is the one stock I&#39;d avoid in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7755ea2b8be302b03c4454fb738f44\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>Growth has been solid</h2><p>Let&#39;s start with what Tesla has done with its business over the last five years. It recently posted record car deliveries of 936,000 in 2021, up from a measly 30,000 in 2017. Revenue has followed suit. Trailing 12-month sales are up 448% in the last five years, as Tesla has scaled its manufacturing business around the globe. What&#39;s more, it has recently started to generate steady profits, putting up $4.45 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.</p><p>The company should do over $50 billion in sales in 2021, and analysts expect revenue to get close to $100 billion in 2023. So why is Tesla stock one to avoid in 2022? <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> reasons: the difficulty of manufacturing and the expectations embedded in the stock.</p><h2>Manufacturing is a difficult business</h2><p>Bending steel is difficult. Building and selling cars is difficult, and it costs a lot of money. Tesla (a car manufacturer) is not immune to these costs, and they will make it difficult for the company to return cash to shareholders over the long term -- which is how you accrue value as an owner of the stock. For example, over the last 12 months, Tesla has spent $7.3 billion on capital expenditures, which is only slightly lower than the $9.9 billion it generated in cash flow from operations.</p><p>These numbers come out to a free cash flow of only $2.6 billion over the past 12 months. At a market cap of $1.05 trillion, that is a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) over 400. Even worse, Tesla has only generated this &#34;free cash flow&#34; because it has grown its accounts payable and accrued liabilities by $2.7 billion this year. This is money Tesla will have to pay to suppliers and employees eventually, making the $2.6 billion in cash it generated unavailable to return to shareholders.</p><p>You might ask: Won&#39;t capex decrease once Tesla is done expanding its business? This is not likely. <b>Toyota</b> (NYSE:TM), the largest car manufacturer in the world, spent almost $35 billion on capital expenditures over the last 12 months, and it is growing capacity at a much slower rate than Tesla. If Tesla starts delivering more than 10 million vehicles a year (as Toyota did in 2019), it will have a perpetual need for capital investment, which will limit the amount of true free cash flow available to pay out to shareholders.</p><h2>Expectations are much too high</h2><p>Given the difficult nature of an automotive manufacturing business, most of the sector&#39;s stocks trade at dirt-cheap earnings multiples. This will likely be true of Tesla at some point. Let&#39;s look at Toyota again as an example. The company, which did $281 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, generated $28.2 billion in net income. It has a market cap of $289 billion, or right around a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. It is so low because investors in the company understand that it will be difficult for excess cash to be paid out to them relative to its earning power.</p><p>On the other hand, Tesla sports a market cap of $1.056 trillion and has a trailing net income of $3.47 billion. Could Tesla get to $28.2 billion in annual net income someday? Maybe. But as investors, you should understand that with a market cap more than three times the size of Toyota&#39;s, this is <i>already priced into the stock</i>.</p><p>If you own Tesla right now, you should have a thesis on why it will be worth more than $1 trillion in the future, and likely $2 trillion a decade from now if you desire a decent compounded annual return. You might argue that Tesla is setting itself up to do that with autonomous driving, battery technology, and solar panels. However, these are all either small and capital-intensive businesses (solar and batteries) or speculative business plans with no line of sight to becoming commercially viable (autonomous driving). Will these segments help Tesla achieve positive returns over the next decade when it already has a market cap pricing in the dominance of the majority of the automotive sector?</p><p>Tesla&#39;s market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile. For that reason, it is the one stock I&#39;d avoid buying in 2022.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2204056629","content_text":"Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks in the market during that timespan. The company has scaled out its electric vehicle business, sports a market cap north of $1 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world. Everything has come up in favor of Tesla recently. But for owners of the stock, the future does not look nearly as bright.Here's why Tesla is the one stock I'd avoid in 2022.Image source: Getty Images.Growth has been solidLet's start with what Tesla has done with its business over the last five years. It recently posted record car deliveries of 936,000 in 2021, up from a measly 30,000 in 2017. Revenue has followed suit. Trailing 12-month sales are up 448% in the last five years, as Tesla has scaled its manufacturing business around the globe. What's more, it has recently started to generate steady profits, putting up $4.45 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.The company should do over $50 billion in sales in 2021, and analysts expect revenue to get close to $100 billion in 2023. So why is Tesla stock one to avoid in 2022? Two reasons: the difficulty of manufacturing and the expectations embedded in the stock.Manufacturing is a difficult businessBending steel is difficult. Building and selling cars is difficult, and it costs a lot of money. Tesla (a car manufacturer) is not immune to these costs, and they will make it difficult for the company to return cash to shareholders over the long term -- which is how you accrue value as an owner of the stock. For example, over the last 12 months, Tesla has spent $7.3 billion on capital expenditures, which is only slightly lower than the $9.9 billion it generated in cash flow from operations.These numbers come out to a free cash flow of only $2.6 billion over the past 12 months. At a market cap of $1.05 trillion, that is a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) over 400. Even worse, Tesla has only generated this \"free cash flow\" because it has grown its accounts payable and accrued liabilities by $2.7 billion this year. This is money Tesla will have to pay to suppliers and employees eventually, making the $2.6 billion in cash it generated unavailable to return to shareholders.You might ask: Won't capex decrease once Tesla is done expanding its business? This is not likely. Toyota (NYSE:TM), the largest car manufacturer in the world, spent almost $35 billion on capital expenditures over the last 12 months, and it is growing capacity at a much slower rate than Tesla. If Tesla starts delivering more than 10 million vehicles a year (as Toyota did in 2019), it will have a perpetual need for capital investment, which will limit the amount of true free cash flow available to pay out to shareholders.Expectations are much too highGiven the difficult nature of an automotive manufacturing business, most of the sector's stocks trade at dirt-cheap earnings multiples. This will likely be true of Tesla at some point. Let's look at Toyota again as an example. The company, which did $281 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, generated $28.2 billion in net income. It has a market cap of $289 billion, or right around a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. It is so low because investors in the company understand that it will be difficult for excess cash to be paid out to them relative to its earning power.On the other hand, Tesla sports a market cap of $1.056 trillion and has a trailing net income of $3.47 billion. Could Tesla get to $28.2 billion in annual net income someday? Maybe. But as investors, you should understand that with a market cap more than three times the size of Toyota's, this is already priced into the stock.If you own Tesla right now, you should have a thesis on why it will be worth more than $1 trillion in the future, and likely $2 trillion a decade from now if you desire a decent compounded annual return. You might argue that Tesla is setting itself up to do that with autonomous driving, battery technology, and solar panels. However, these are all either small and capital-intensive businesses (solar and batteries) or speculative business plans with no line of sight to becoming commercially viable (autonomous driving). Will these segments help Tesla achieve positive returns over the next decade when it already has a market cap pricing in the dominance of the majority of the automotive sector?Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile. For that reason, it is the one stock I'd avoid buying in 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}