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- ctzctz
  ·2021-05-13
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  Inflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle
  美国公布4月份物价指数，CPI和核心CPI同比增速分别飙升4.2%和3%，为2008年以来最高。这不仅远远超过市场此前的乐观预期，也远远超出了美联储的政策目标。同时进一步支持并强化了市场对通胀预期的担
  Inflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle
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- ctzctz
  ·2021-05-13
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  Inflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle
  美国公布4月份物价指数，CPI和核心CPI同比增速分别飙升4.2%和3%，为2008年以来最高。这不仅远远超过市场此前的乐观预期，也远远超出了美联储的政策目标。同时进一步支持并强化了市场对通胀预期的担
  Inflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle
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There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135642275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国公布4月份物价指数，CPI和核心CPI同比增速分别飙升4.2%和3%，为2008年以来最高。这不仅远远超过市场此前的乐观预期，也远远超出了美联储的政策目标。同时进一步支持并强化了市场对通胀预期的担","content":"<p>The United States announced the price index in April. The year-on-year growth rates of CPI and core CPI soared by 4.2% and 3% respectively, the highest since 2008. This is not only<b><u>Far away</u></b>Exceeding the market's previous optimistic expectations, also<b><u>Far away</u></b>Exceeded the Fed's policy goals. At the same time, it further supports and strengthens market concerns about inflation expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c24f1f28-b0ef-4e9a-980c-7b0431870170.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><u>From the reason point of view, fiscal transfer payments have driven residents' income to surge and the economy to restart rapidly, but employment and production still lag behind demand, resulting in a widening gap between supply and demand and pushing up prices to a rapid upward trend.</u></b>In terms of sub-items, year-on-year, energy and transportation rebounded sharply on the basis of last year's low base, rising by more than 10% year-on-year. Residential items continued to rise despite the fact that the base of the same period last year was not low, and their weight was relatively high. It also reflects the continued prosperity of U.S. real estate.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab2fdad5-99bb-4760-881b-400aab1d1557.png\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From a month-on-month perspective, the prices of personal computers, information technology services and transportation rose rapidly, while the upward rate of energy prices slowed down. The prices of service entertainment and education have also improved, and the prices of medical care with higher weights have narrowed. The reasons include supply chain disruptions that have led to reduced new car production, soaring used car prices, and the shortage of related electronic products.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/986e5fb7-76f8-4cf0-a78c-93d24006a6d5.png\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2><b>Employment to the left and inflation to the right, there is not much time left for the Fed to struggle</b></h2>Compared with the hot inflation data, the employment data released a few days ago was unexpectedly cold. In April, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population only increased by 266,000, far lower than the expected 978,000; The unemployment rate was 6.1%, compared with expectations of 5.8%. Although we do not believe that the employment recovery process has been interrupted, the U.S. economy and employment will continue to recover with the popularization of vaccines and the gradual recede of the epidemic, but its upward trend relative to inflation is definitely slow.</p><p>The difference in the Fed's stance may lie in the persistence of inflation. Judging from our previous relatively neutral expectations, the CPI in April is not a high point, and it will be higher in May. In the second half of the year, as the base gradually falls, most months will still be above 2.5%, and the core CPI will be above 2%. Putting aside the base factor, the official recognizes that this round of price increases, including commodity prices, is more due to supply-side problems, including insufficient construction caused by the epidemic, poor transportation, production capacity adjustments in emerging markets, strikes and epidemics. repeated.</p><p>We have no objection to this.<b><u>But will the supply-side problems recover soon this time? Not necessarily!</u></b></p><p>1. The epidemic situation in emerging market countries that are responsible for the supply of raw materials is still recurring and they lack effective prevention and control measures;</p><p>2. The negative effect of excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States on employment is prominent, the downward trend of unemployment rate is hindered, and the recovery of supply chain is slow;</p><p>3. The de-capacity of some industries in China is permanent under the energy strategy;</p><p>4. International relations and trade frictions lead to a decline in supply chain production capacity and efficiency;</p><p><b><u>Therefore, although the momentum for further short-term commodities to rise may slow down (as the growth rate of money supply will peak), these factors on the supply side will continue to a large extent and gradually raise the center of global inflation.</u></b></p><p>As we analyzed in our comments on the Fed's interest rate meeting in April, the Fed<b>It's not that we don't pay attention to inflation, but when the employment gap gradually returns to the 70-80% range, the weight of inflation will be increased. Once new inflationary pressures become strong after May, the Fed will have to consider planning to exit before the employment gap closes.</b>Therefore, there is indeed not much time left for the Fed to struggle. From now until July, the global market will be in the shadow of \"inflation concerns\" until the boots land.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 16:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The United States announced the price index in April. The year-on-year growth rates of CPI and core CPI soared by 4.2% and 3% respectively, the highest since 2008. This is not only<b><u>Far away</u></b>Exceeding the market's previous optimistic expectations, also<b><u>Far away</u></b>Exceeded the Fed's policy goals. At the same time, it further supports and strengthens market concerns about inflation expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c24f1f28-b0ef-4e9a-980c-7b0431870170.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><u>From the reason point of view, fiscal transfer payments have driven residents' income to surge and the economy to restart rapidly, but employment and production still lag behind demand, resulting in a widening gap between supply and demand and pushing up prices to a rapid upward trend.</u></b>In terms of sub-items, year-on-year, energy and transportation rebounded sharply on the basis of last year's low base, rising by more than 10% year-on-year. Residential items continued to rise despite the fact that the base of the same period last year was not low, and their weight was relatively high. It also reflects the continued prosperity of U.S. real estate.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab2fdad5-99bb-4760-881b-400aab1d1557.png\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From a month-on-month perspective, the prices of personal computers, information technology services and transportation rose rapidly, while the upward rate of energy prices slowed down. The prices of service entertainment and education have also improved, and the prices of medical care with higher weights have narrowed. The reasons include supply chain disruptions that have led to reduced new car production, soaring used car prices, and the shortage of related electronic products.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/986e5fb7-76f8-4cf0-a78c-93d24006a6d5.png\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2><b>Employment to the left and inflation to the right, there is not much time left for the Fed to struggle</b></h2>Compared with the hot inflation data, the employment data released a few days ago was unexpectedly cold. In April, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population only increased by 266,000, far lower than the expected 978,000; The unemployment rate was 6.1%, compared with expectations of 5.8%. Although we do not believe that the employment recovery process has been interrupted, the U.S. economy and employment will continue to recover with the popularization of vaccines and the gradual recede of the epidemic, but its upward trend relative to inflation is definitely slow.</p><p>The difference in the Fed's stance may lie in the persistence of inflation. Judging from our previous relatively neutral expectations, the CPI in April is not a high point, and it will be higher in May. In the second half of the year, as the base gradually falls, most months will still be above 2.5%, and the core CPI will be above 2%. Putting aside the base factor, the official recognizes that this round of price increases, including commodity prices, is more due to supply-side problems, including insufficient construction caused by the epidemic, poor transportation, production capacity adjustments in emerging markets, strikes and epidemics. repeated.</p><p>We have no objection to this.<b><u>But will the supply-side problems recover soon this time? Not necessarily!</u></b></p><p>1. The epidemic situation in emerging market countries that are responsible for the supply of raw materials is still recurring and they lack effective prevention and control measures;</p><p>2. The negative effect of excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States on employment is prominent, the downward trend of unemployment rate is hindered, and the recovery of supply chain is slow;</p><p>3. The de-capacity of some industries in China is permanent under the energy strategy;</p><p>4. International relations and trade frictions lead to a decline in supply chain production capacity and efficiency;</p><p><b><u>Therefore, although the momentum for further short-term commodities to rise may slow down (as the growth rate of money supply will peak), these factors on the supply side will continue to a large extent and gradually raise the center of global inflation.</u></b></p><p>As we analyzed in our comments on the Fed's interest rate meeting in April, the Fed<b>It's not that we don't pay attention to inflation, but when the employment gap gradually returns to the 70-80% range, the weight of inflation will be increased. Once new inflationary pressures become strong after May, the Fed will have to consider planning to exit before the employment gap closes.</b>Therefore, there is indeed not much time left for the Fed to struggle. From now until July, the global market will be in the shadow of \"inflation concerns\" until the boots land.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630236\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c8954665756ab7e669863bbe8f57ce0","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630236","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135642275","content_text":"美国公布4月份物价指数，CPI和核心CPI同比增速分别飙升4.2%和3%，为2008年以来最高。这不仅远远超过市场此前的乐观预期，也远远超出了美联储的政策目标。同时进一步支持并强化了市场对通胀预期的担忧。从原因上来看，财政转移支付带动居民收入大涨、经济快速重启，但就业、生产仍滞后于需求，导致供需缺口扩大，推升物价呈快速上行态势。分项来看，同比方面，能源、交通运输在去年低基数的基础上大幅反弹，同比涨在10%以上。住宅项在去年同期基数不低的情况下继续上行，且其权重较高。也反映美国房地产继续景气。环比来看个人计算机、信息技术服务以及交通运输价格上行较快，能源价格上行速率放缓。服务类的娱乐、教育价格也有改善，权重较高的医疗价格有所收窄。原因上包括供应链中断导致新车产量减少，二手车价格飙升，以及相关电子产品供不应求。就业向左、通胀向右，留给美联储纠结的时间不多了相比火爆的通胀数据，前些天公布的就业数据反而意外遇冷。4月季调后的非农就业人口仅新增26.6万人，远低于预期的97.8万人；失业率6.1%，预期5.8%。尽管我们并不认为就业复苏进程被打断，随着疫苗的普及和疫情渐退，美国经济和就业还将继续修复，但是其相对通胀的上行肯定是偏慢的。美联储的立场差异或许就在于通胀的持续性。从我们先前比较中性的预期来看4月的CPI不是高点，5月会更高。下半年随着基数逐步回落，但大部分月份依然将处于2.5%以上的位置、核心CPI处于2%以上。撇开基数因素，官方比较认可本轮物价、包括大宗商品价格上涨更多层面是来自于供给端的问题，包括疫情导致的开工不足、包括运输不畅、包括新兴市场的产能调整和罢工和疫情反复。这点我们并不反对。但这次供给端的问题会很快恢复么？未必！1、承担原材料供给的新兴市场国家疫情还在反复其缺少有效防控措施；2、美国过度财政补贴对就业的反作用凸显、失业率下行遇阻、供应链恢复偏慢；3、中国部分工业去产能在能源战略下是永久性的；4、国际关系和贸易摩擦导致供应链产能和效率下滑；因而，尽管短期大宗商品进一步冲高的动力或有所趋缓（因货币供给增速将见顶），但供给端的这些因素很大程度上还会持续，并且逐步抬升全球通胀水平的中枢。而如同我们在4月美联储议息会议点评中分析的，美联储并非不关注通胀，而是当就业缺口逐渐恢复到70-80%区间的时候，通胀的权重便会被提升。一旦5月之后新增通胀压力偏强，美联储不得不考虑在就业缺口闭合前计划退出。所以，留给美联储纠结的时间确实不多了，当前至7月，全球市场都会处于“通胀担忧”的阴影之下，直到靴子落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191749664,"gmtCreate":1620910629058,"gmtModify":1704350296214,"author":{"id":"3583815236747388","authorId":"3583815236747388","name":"ctz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70203cb0d5bc14c094a700f9c5128176","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583815236747388","idStr":"3583815236747388"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191749664","repostId":"2135642275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135642275","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1620893726,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135642275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 16:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Inflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135642275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国公布4月份物价指数，CPI和核心CPI同比增速分别飙升4.2%和3%，为2008年以来最高。这不仅远远超过市场此前的乐观预期，也远远超出了美联储的政策目标。同时进一步支持并强化了市场对通胀预期的担","content":"<p>The United States announced the price index in April. The year-on-year growth rates of CPI and core CPI soared by 4.2% and 3% respectively, the highest since 2008. This is not only<b><u>Far away</u></b>Exceeding the market's previous optimistic expectations, also<b><u>Far away</u></b>Exceeded the Fed's policy goals. At the same time, it further supports and strengthens market concerns about inflation expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c24f1f28-b0ef-4e9a-980c-7b0431870170.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><u>From the reason point of view, fiscal transfer payments have driven residents' income to surge and the economy to restart rapidly, but employment and production still lag behind demand, resulting in a widening gap between supply and demand and pushing up prices to a rapid upward trend.</u></b>In terms of sub-items, year-on-year, energy and transportation rebounded sharply on the basis of last year's low base, rising by more than 10% year-on-year. Residential items continued to rise despite the fact that the base of the same period last year was not low, and their weight was relatively high. It also reflects the continued prosperity of U.S. real estate.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab2fdad5-99bb-4760-881b-400aab1d1557.png\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From a month-on-month perspective, the prices of personal computers, information technology services and transportation rose rapidly, while the upward rate of energy prices slowed down. The prices of service entertainment and education have also improved, and the prices of medical care with higher weights have narrowed. The reasons include supply chain disruptions that have led to reduced new car production, soaring used car prices, and the shortage of related electronic products.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/986e5fb7-76f8-4cf0-a78c-93d24006a6d5.png\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2><b>Employment to the left and inflation to the right, there is not much time left for the Fed to struggle</b></h2>Compared with the hot inflation data, the employment data released a few days ago was unexpectedly cold. In April, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population only increased by 266,000, far lower than the expected 978,000; The unemployment rate was 6.1%, compared with expectations of 5.8%. Although we do not believe that the employment recovery process has been interrupted, the U.S. economy and employment will continue to recover with the popularization of vaccines and the gradual recede of the epidemic, but its upward trend relative to inflation is definitely slow.</p><p>The difference in the Fed's stance may lie in the persistence of inflation. Judging from our previous relatively neutral expectations, the CPI in April is not a high point, and it will be higher in May. In the second half of the year, as the base gradually falls, most months will still be above 2.5%, and the core CPI will be above 2%. Putting aside the base factor, the official recognizes that this round of price increases, including commodity prices, is more due to supply-side problems, including insufficient construction caused by the epidemic, poor transportation, production capacity adjustments in emerging markets, strikes and epidemics. repeated.</p><p>We have no objection to this.<b><u>But will the supply-side problems recover soon this time? Not necessarily!</u></b></p><p>1. The epidemic situation in emerging market countries that are responsible for the supply of raw materials is still recurring and they lack effective prevention and control measures;</p><p>2. The negative effect of excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States on employment is prominent, the downward trend of unemployment rate is hindered, and the recovery of supply chain is slow;</p><p>3. The de-capacity of some industries in China is permanent under the energy strategy;</p><p>4. International relations and trade frictions lead to a decline in supply chain production capacity and efficiency;</p><p><b><u>Therefore, although the momentum for further short-term commodities to rise may slow down (as the growth rate of money supply will peak), these factors on the supply side will continue to a large extent and gradually raise the center of global inflation.</u></b></p><p>As we analyzed in our comments on the Fed's interest rate meeting in April, the Fed<b>It's not that we don't pay attention to inflation, but when the employment gap gradually returns to the 70-80% range, the weight of inflation will be increased. Once new inflationary pressures become strong after May, the Fed will have to consider planning to exit before the employment gap closes.</b>Therefore, there is indeed not much time left for the Fed to struggle. From now until July, the global market will be in the shadow of \"inflation concerns\" until the boots land.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation soars! There's not much time left for the Fed to struggle\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 16:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The United States announced the price index in April. The year-on-year growth rates of CPI and core CPI soared by 4.2% and 3% respectively, the highest since 2008. This is not only<b><u>Far away</u></b>Exceeding the market's previous optimistic expectations, also<b><u>Far away</u></b>Exceeded the Fed's policy goals. At the same time, it further supports and strengthens market concerns about inflation expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c24f1f28-b0ef-4e9a-980c-7b0431870170.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><u>From the reason point of view, fiscal transfer payments have driven residents' income to surge and the economy to restart rapidly, but employment and production still lag behind demand, resulting in a widening gap between supply and demand and pushing up prices to a rapid upward trend.</u></b>In terms of sub-items, year-on-year, energy and transportation rebounded sharply on the basis of last year's low base, rising by more than 10% year-on-year. Residential items continued to rise despite the fact that the base of the same period last year was not low, and their weight was relatively high. It also reflects the continued prosperity of U.S. real estate.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab2fdad5-99bb-4760-881b-400aab1d1557.png\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From a month-on-month perspective, the prices of personal computers, information technology services and transportation rose rapidly, while the upward rate of energy prices slowed down. The prices of service entertainment and education have also improved, and the prices of medical care with higher weights have narrowed. The reasons include supply chain disruptions that have led to reduced new car production, soaring used car prices, and the shortage of related electronic products.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/986e5fb7-76f8-4cf0-a78c-93d24006a6d5.png\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2><b>Employment to the left and inflation to the right, there is not much time left for the Fed to struggle</b></h2>Compared with the hot inflation data, the employment data released a few days ago was unexpectedly cold. In April, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population only increased by 266,000, far lower than the expected 978,000; The unemployment rate was 6.1%, compared with expectations of 5.8%. Although we do not believe that the employment recovery process has been interrupted, the U.S. economy and employment will continue to recover with the popularization of vaccines and the gradual recede of the epidemic, but its upward trend relative to inflation is definitely slow.</p><p>The difference in the Fed's stance may lie in the persistence of inflation. Judging from our previous relatively neutral expectations, the CPI in April is not a high point, and it will be higher in May. In the second half of the year, as the base gradually falls, most months will still be above 2.5%, and the core CPI will be above 2%. Putting aside the base factor, the official recognizes that this round of price increases, including commodity prices, is more due to supply-side problems, including insufficient construction caused by the epidemic, poor transportation, production capacity adjustments in emerging markets, strikes and epidemics. repeated.</p><p>We have no objection to this.<b><u>But will the supply-side problems recover soon this time? Not necessarily!</u></b></p><p>1. The epidemic situation in emerging market countries that are responsible for the supply of raw materials is still recurring and they lack effective prevention and control measures;</p><p>2. The negative effect of excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States on employment is prominent, the downward trend of unemployment rate is hindered, and the recovery of supply chain is slow;</p><p>3. The de-capacity of some industries in China is permanent under the energy strategy;</p><p>4. International relations and trade frictions lead to a decline in supply chain production capacity and efficiency;</p><p><b><u>Therefore, although the momentum for further short-term commodities to rise may slow down (as the growth rate of money supply will peak), these factors on the supply side will continue to a large extent and gradually raise the center of global inflation.</u></b></p><p>As we analyzed in our comments on the Fed's interest rate meeting in April, the Fed<b>It's not that we don't pay attention to inflation, but when the employment gap gradually returns to the 70-80% range, the weight of inflation will be increased. Once new inflationary pressures become strong after May, the Fed will have to consider planning to exit before the employment gap closes.</b>Therefore, there is indeed not much time left for the Fed to struggle. From now until July, the global market will be in the shadow of \"inflation concerns\" until the boots land.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630236\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c8954665756ab7e669863bbe8f57ce0","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630236","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135642275","content_text":"美国公布4月份物价指数，CPI和核心CPI同比增速分别飙升4.2%和3%，为2008年以来最高。这不仅远远超过市场此前的乐观预期，也远远超出了美联储的政策目标。同时进一步支持并强化了市场对通胀预期的担忧。从原因上来看，财政转移支付带动居民收入大涨、经济快速重启，但就业、生产仍滞后于需求，导致供需缺口扩大，推升物价呈快速上行态势。分项来看，同比方面，能源、交通运输在去年低基数的基础上大幅反弹，同比涨在10%以上。住宅项在去年同期基数不低的情况下继续上行，且其权重较高。也反映美国房地产继续景气。环比来看个人计算机、信息技术服务以及交通运输价格上行较快，能源价格上行速率放缓。服务类的娱乐、教育价格也有改善，权重较高的医疗价格有所收窄。原因上包括供应链中断导致新车产量减少，二手车价格飙升，以及相关电子产品供不应求。就业向左、通胀向右，留给美联储纠结的时间不多了相比火爆的通胀数据，前些天公布的就业数据反而意外遇冷。4月季调后的非农就业人口仅新增26.6万人，远低于预期的97.8万人；失业率6.1%，预期5.8%。尽管我们并不认为就业复苏进程被打断，随着疫苗的普及和疫情渐退，美国经济和就业还将继续修复，但是其相对通胀的上行肯定是偏慢的。美联储的立场差异或许就在于通胀的持续性。从我们先前比较中性的预期来看4月的CPI不是高点，5月会更高。下半年随着基数逐步回落，但大部分月份依然将处于2.5%以上的位置、核心CPI处于2%以上。撇开基数因素，官方比较认可本轮物价、包括大宗商品价格上涨更多层面是来自于供给端的问题，包括疫情导致的开工不足、包括运输不畅、包括新兴市场的产能调整和罢工和疫情反复。这点我们并不反对。但这次供给端的问题会很快恢复么？未必！1、承担原材料供给的新兴市场国家疫情还在反复其缺少有效防控措施；2、美国过度财政补贴对就业的反作用凸显、失业率下行遇阻、供应链恢复偏慢；3、中国部分工业去产能在能源战略下是永久性的；4、国际关系和贸易摩擦导致供应链产能和效率下滑；因而，尽管短期大宗商品进一步冲高的动力或有所趋缓（因货币供给增速将见顶），但供给端的这些因素很大程度上还会持续，并且逐步抬升全球通胀水平的中枢。而如同我们在4月美联储议息会议点评中分析的，美联储并非不关注通胀，而是当就业缺口逐渐恢复到70-80%区间的时候，通胀的权重便会被提升。一旦5月之后新增通胀压力偏强，美联储不得不考虑在就业缺口闭合前计划退出。所以，留给美联储纠结的时间确实不多了，当前至7月，全球市场都会处于“通胀担忧”的阴影之下，直到靴子落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}