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- bongheebonghee
  ·2021-06-18
  Cool
  Malaysia’s Carsome Weighs U.S. Listing With SPAC as Option
  Startup is seeking a valuation of about $2 billion in the deal Kuala Lumpur-based Carsome set to be
  Malaysia’s Carsome Weighs U.S. Listing With SPAC as Option
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- bongheebonghee
  ·2021-06-18
  Gogo OCBC hstech etc
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- bongheebonghee
  ·2021-06-18
  Nice
  Singapore slows the pace of reopening as Covid cases haven't declined significantly
  SINGAPORE — Singapore's government said Friday it will further ease Covid-related restrictions next
  Singapore slows the pace of reopening as Covid cases haven't declined significantly
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- bongheebonghee
  ·2021-06-17
  Good
  Fed Sees Two Rate Hikes by End of 2023, Inches Towards Taper
  Thirteen of 18 officials see at least one rate hike in 2023 Powell says Fed to begin discussing scal
  Fed Sees Two Rate Hikes by End of 2023, Inches Towards Taper
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- bongheebonghee
  ·2021-06-17
  Gogo top glove
  210 Comment
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- bongheebonghee
  ·2021-06-16
  Gogo amc
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- bongheebonghee
  ·2021-06-16
  Wow
  It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks
  If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear. It takes brains and brawn
  It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks
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A deal to take the company public could take place as soon as the end of the year, they said.</p>\n<p>Kuala Lumpur-based Carsome is conducting a pre-IPO funding round that aims to raise about $150 million, said the people, asking not to be identified because the matter is private.</p>\n<p>Deliberations are ongoing and details of the listing could change, they said. A representative for Carsome didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>\n<p>At a $2 billion valuation, Carsome would become Malaysia’s first unicorn. The car sales platform operator would join other companies in the region such as Indonesia’s&nbsp;Tiket.com&nbsp;as well as Singapore’s&nbsp;PropertyGuru Pte&nbsp;and&nbsp;Grab Holdings Inc.&nbsp;in planning to list in the U.S. via mergers with blank-check firms.</p>\n<p>Carsome was founded in 2015 and has expanded its presence to Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore in recent years. The company’s platform sees sales involving more than 40,000 cars annually, with a transaction value of over $600 million, according to its&nbsp;website. It works with more than 8,000 used car dealers who have collectively made more than 2.3 million bids.</p>\n<p>Its regional rival, Singaporean used car platform Carro,raised$360 million in June to fuel expansion in Thailand and Indonesia before pursuing a U.S. listing.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Malaysia’s Carsome Weighs U.S. Listing With SPAC as Option</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMalaysia’s Carsome Weighs U.S. Listing With SPAC as Option\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 13:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-18/malaysia-s-carsome-said-to-mull-u-s-listing-with-spac-as-option><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Startup is seeking a valuation of about $2 billion in the deal\nKuala Lumpur-based Carsome set to be country’s first unicorn\n\nCarsome Sdn., an online used car platform in Southeast Asia, is weighing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-18/malaysia-s-carsome-said-to-mull-u-s-listing-with-spac-as-option\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-18/malaysia-s-carsome-said-to-mull-u-s-listing-with-spac-as-option","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149669763","content_text":"Startup is seeking a valuation of about $2 billion in the deal\nKuala Lumpur-based Carsome set to be country’s first unicorn\n\nCarsome Sdn., an online used car platform in Southeast Asia, is weighing going public in the U.S. in a deal that would make it Malaysia’s first unicorn, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe startup is working with advisers and is seeking a valuation of about $2 billion in a listing, which could be a merger with a special purpose acquisition company or a conventional initial public offering, said the people. A deal to take the company public could take place as soon as the end of the year, they said.\nKuala Lumpur-based Carsome is conducting a pre-IPO funding round that aims to raise about $150 million, said the people, asking not to be identified because the matter is private.\nDeliberations are ongoing and details of the listing could change, they said. A representative for Carsome didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.\nAt a $2 billion valuation, Carsome would become Malaysia’s first unicorn. The car sales platform operator would join other companies in the region such as Indonesia’s Tiket.com as well as Singapore’s PropertyGuru Pte and Grab Holdings Inc. in planning to list in the U.S. via mergers with blank-check firms.\nCarsome was founded in 2015 and has expanded its presence to Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore in recent years. The company’s platform sees sales involving more than 40,000 cars annually, with a transaction value of over $600 million, according to its website. It works with more than 8,000 used car dealers who have collectively made more than 2.3 million bids.\nIts regional rival, Singaporean used car platform Carro,raised$360 million in June to fuel expansion in Thailand and Indonesia before pursuing a U.S. listing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166875274,"gmtCreate":1624004321098,"gmtModify":1703826305325,"author":{"id":"3583981517167069","authorId":"3583981517167069","name":"bonghee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1985745ea401a33d47301b661a83036c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583981517167069","idStr":"3583981517167069"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogo OCBC hstech etc","listText":"Gogo OCBC hstech etc","text":"Gogo OCBC hstech etc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166875274","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166875322,"gmtCreate":1624004300566,"gmtModify":1703826304834,"author":{"id":"3583981517167069","authorId":"3583981517167069","name":"bonghee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1985745ea401a33d47301b661a83036c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583981517167069","idStr":"3583981517167069"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166875322","repostId":"1113093847","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113093847","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624001134,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113093847?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 15:25","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore slows the pace of reopening as Covid cases haven't declined significantly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113093847","media":"cnbc","summary":"SINGAPORE — Singapore's government said Friday it will further ease Covid-related restrictions next ","content":"<div>\n<p>SINGAPORE — Singapore's government said Friday it will further ease Covid-related restrictions next week, but at a slower pace than previously announced as local infections have not declined ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/covid-singapore-slows-pace-of-reopening-as-local-cases-stabilize.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore slows the pace of reopening as Covid cases haven't declined significantly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore slows the pace of reopening as Covid cases haven't declined significantly\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 15:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/covid-singapore-slows-pace-of-reopening-as-local-cases-stabilize.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SINGAPORE — Singapore's government said Friday it will further ease Covid-related restrictions next week, but at a slower pace than previously announced as local infections have not declined ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/covid-singapore-slows-pace-of-reopening-as-local-cases-stabilize.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/covid-singapore-slows-pace-of-reopening-as-local-cases-stabilize.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1113093847","content_text":"SINGAPORE — Singapore's government said Friday it will further ease Covid-related restrictions next week, but at a slower pace than previously announced as local infections have not declined significantly.\nThe government startedrelaxing some measuresthis week, including increasing the limits on social gatherings and event attendees.\nIt said that starting Monday, \"higher-risk activities\" such as dining in and indoor mask-off sports and exercises will be allowed to resume in groups of two people — instead of five people as previously announced.\nBarring another super-spreader event or a big cluster of infections, the government will allow those activities for groups of up to five around mid-July.\nSingapore has to be cautious in resuming activities deemed to be of higher risks due to the more transmissible delta variant first detected in India, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung told reporters at a briefing.\nOng said that with a phased reopening, \"we buy time to get more people vaccinated, so the imperative now is to boost vaccinations.\"\nSingapore hasone of the fastest vaccination roll-outsin Asia-Pacific. Around 2.7 million people — or roughly 47% of the population — have received at least the first dose of Covid vaccine as of Monday,latest data by the health ministryshowed.\nThe country had largely controlled the spread of Covid until a flare-up in locally transmitted cases in end-April.Many of the recent cases were caused by the delta variant. The rise in cases forced the government totighten social-distancing measurestwice last month.\nDaily reported casesin the local community fell to single-digit levels for most of last week, but have stayed above 10 cases per day since Sunday as a major cluster of infections emerged around a wet market in southern Singapore.\nOverall, the Southeast Asian country has reported 34 deaths and more than 62,300 confirmed cases since the beginning of 2020 as of Thursday, health ministry data showed.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163548858,"gmtCreate":1623889997774,"gmtModify":1703822528469,"author":{"id":"3583981517167069","authorId":"3583981517167069","name":"bonghee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1985745ea401a33d47301b661a83036c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583981517167069","idStr":"3583981517167069"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163548858","repostId":"2144270718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144270718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623879249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144270718?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 05:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Sees Two Rate Hikes by End of 2023, Inches Towards Taper","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144270718","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Thirteen of 18 officials see at least one rate hike in 2023\nPowell says Fed to begin discussing scal","content":"<ul>\n <li>Thirteen of 18 officials see at least one rate hike in 2023</li>\n <li>Powell says Fed to begin discussing scaling back bond buying</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Federal Reserve officials sped up their expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns for inflation.</p>\n<p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a press conference Wednesday that officials would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases used to support financial markets and the economy during the pandemic.</p>\n<p>They also released forecasts that show they anticipate two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- and they upgraded estimates for inflation for the next three years.</p>\n<p>“The economy has clearly made progress,” Powell said after a two-day gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee. “You can think of this meeting as the talking-about-talking-about meeting, if you like,” he added, referring to the discussion about tapering purchases.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2eca74e7277de2e0f189f2489e9069e\" tg-width=\"1367\" tg-height=\"616\"></p>\n<p>The central bank&nbsp;held the target range&nbsp;for its benchmark policy rate unchanged at zero to 0.25%, where it’s been since March 2020, and maintained the $120 billion pace of its monthly bond purchases. The Federal Open Market Committee vote was unanimous.</p>\n<p>The more aggressive signal from the Fed’s forecasts saw the dollar rise, stocks decline and yields on 10-year Treasuries jump.</p>\n<p>“It’s a hawkish surprise,” said Thomas Costerg, senior U.S. economist at Pictet Wealth Management, referring to the rate projections. “We are looking at a Fed that seems positively surprised by the speed of vaccinations and the ongoing withdrawal of social-distancing measures.”</p>\n<p>The quarterly projections showed 13 of 18 officials favored at least one rate increase by the end of 2023, versus seven in March. Eleven officials saw at least two hikes by the end of that year. In addition, seven of them saw a move as early as 2022, up from four.</p>\n<p>“The dots should be taken with a big grain of salt,” Powell said, referring to the interest-rate forecasts. He cautioned that discussions about raising rates would be “highly premature.”</p>\n<p>The Fed marked up its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023. Officials see their preferred measure of price pressures rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. The 2022 forecast rose to 2.1% from 2%, and the 2023 estimate was raised to 2.2% from 2.1%.</p>\n<p>Consumer-price pressures have proven hotter than expected over the last two months. Labor Department figures showed a 0.8% jump in prices in April and a 0.6% rise in May, marking the two biggest monthly increases since 2009.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a86414293205edfd0f505fd64c5ef7\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>“As the reopening continues, shifts in demand can be large and rapid, and bottlenecks, hiring difficulties and other constraints could continue to limit how quickly supply can adjust -- raising the possibility that inflation could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect,” Powell said.</p>\n<p>Labor Department reports on employment published since the last gathering of the FOMC in late April, on the other hand, have disappointed relative to forecasters’ expectations. The U.S. unemployment rate was still elevated at 5.8% in May, with total employment still millions of jobs below pre-pandemic levels.</p>\n<p>Even so, the FOMC median projection for unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2021 was unchanged at 4.5%, and the median estimate for the same quarter a year later was marked down to 3.8% from 3.9%. The 2023 forecast was held at 3.5%.</p>\n<p>“I am confident that we are on a path to a very strong labor market,” Powell told reporters. “We learned during the course of the last very long expansion, the longest in our history, that labor supply during a long expansion can exceed expectations.”</p>\n<p><b>GDP Forecasts</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economic recovery is gathering strength as business restrictions lift and social activity increases across the country. Robust demand from consumers and businesses alike has outstripped capacity, leading to bottlenecks in the supply chain, longer lead times and higher prices.</p>\n<p>Fed officials have said such “fits and starts” are to be expected given the unprecedented nature of the pandemic and expressed optimism about the outlook for the second half of the year as more Americans get vaccinated.</p>\n<p>The FOMC raised its projections for economic growth. Gross domestic product was seen expanding 7% this year, up from a prior projection of 6.5%. It maintained the 2022 expansion forecast at 3.3% and raised the 2023 estimate to 2.4% from March’s 2.2%.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Sees Two Rate Hikes by End of 2023, Inches Towards Taper</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Sees Two Rate Hikes by End of 2023, Inches Towards Taper\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 05:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/fed-holds-rates-at-zero-projects-two-hikes-by-the-end-of-2023?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Thirteen of 18 officials see at least one rate hike in 2023\nPowell says Fed to begin discussing scaling back bond buying\n\nFederal Reserve officials sped up their expected pace of policy tightening ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/fed-holds-rates-at-zero-projects-two-hikes-by-the-end-of-2023?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/fed-holds-rates-at-zero-projects-two-hikes-by-the-end-of-2023?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144270718","content_text":"Thirteen of 18 officials see at least one rate hike in 2023\nPowell says Fed to begin discussing scaling back bond buying\n\nFederal Reserve officials sped up their expected pace of policy tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened concerns for inflation.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell told a press conference Wednesday that officials would begin a discussion about scaling back bond purchases used to support financial markets and the economy during the pandemic.\nThey also released forecasts that show they anticipate two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought -- and they upgraded estimates for inflation for the next three years.\n“The economy has clearly made progress,” Powell said after a two-day gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee. “You can think of this meeting as the talking-about-talking-about meeting, if you like,” he added, referring to the discussion about tapering purchases.\n\nThe central bank held the target range for its benchmark policy rate unchanged at zero to 0.25%, where it’s been since March 2020, and maintained the $120 billion pace of its monthly bond purchases. The Federal Open Market Committee vote was unanimous.\nThe more aggressive signal from the Fed’s forecasts saw the dollar rise, stocks decline and yields on 10-year Treasuries jump.\n“It’s a hawkish surprise,” said Thomas Costerg, senior U.S. economist at Pictet Wealth Management, referring to the rate projections. “We are looking at a Fed that seems positively surprised by the speed of vaccinations and the ongoing withdrawal of social-distancing measures.”\nThe quarterly projections showed 13 of 18 officials favored at least one rate increase by the end of 2023, versus seven in March. Eleven officials saw at least two hikes by the end of that year. In addition, seven of them saw a move as early as 2022, up from four.\n“The dots should be taken with a big grain of salt,” Powell said, referring to the interest-rate forecasts. He cautioned that discussions about raising rates would be “highly premature.”\nThe Fed marked up its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023. Officials see their preferred measure of price pressures rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. The 2022 forecast rose to 2.1% from 2%, and the 2023 estimate was raised to 2.2% from 2.1%.\nConsumer-price pressures have proven hotter than expected over the last two months. Labor Department figures showed a 0.8% jump in prices in April and a 0.6% rise in May, marking the two biggest monthly increases since 2009.\n\n“As the reopening continues, shifts in demand can be large and rapid, and bottlenecks, hiring difficulties and other constraints could continue to limit how quickly supply can adjust -- raising the possibility that inflation could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect,” Powell said.\nLabor Department reports on employment published since the last gathering of the FOMC in late April, on the other hand, have disappointed relative to forecasters’ expectations. The U.S. unemployment rate was still elevated at 5.8% in May, with total employment still millions of jobs below pre-pandemic levels.\nEven so, the FOMC median projection for unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2021 was unchanged at 4.5%, and the median estimate for the same quarter a year later was marked down to 3.8% from 3.9%. The 2023 forecast was held at 3.5%.\n“I am confident that we are on a path to a very strong labor market,” Powell told reporters. “We learned during the course of the last very long expansion, the longest in our history, that labor supply during a long expansion can exceed expectations.”\nGDP Forecasts\nThe U.S. economic recovery is gathering strength as business restrictions lift and social activity increases across the country. Robust demand from consumers and businesses alike has outstripped capacity, leading to bottlenecks in the supply chain, longer lead times and higher prices.\nFed officials have said such “fits and starts” are to be expected given the unprecedented nature of the pandemic and expressed optimism about the outlook for the second half of the year as more Americans get vaccinated.\nThe FOMC raised its projections for economic growth. Gross domestic product was seen expanding 7% this year, up from a prior projection of 6.5%. It maintained the 2022 expansion forecast at 3.3% and raised the 2023 estimate to 2.4% from March’s 2.2%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163549174,"gmtCreate":1623889956998,"gmtModify":1703822523601,"author":{"id":"3583981517167069","authorId":"3583981517167069","name":"bonghee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1985745ea401a33d47301b661a83036c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583981517167069","idStr":"3583981517167069"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogo top glove","listText":"Gogo top glove","text":"Gogo top glove","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163549174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169941721,"gmtCreate":1623814385463,"gmtModify":1703820312344,"author":{"id":"3583981517167069","authorId":"3583981517167069","name":"bonghee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1985745ea401a33d47301b661a83036c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583981517167069","idStr":"3583981517167069"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogo amc","listText":"Gogo amc","text":"Gogo amc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169941721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169943265,"gmtCreate":1623814327657,"gmtModify":1703820310243,"author":{"id":"3583981517167069","authorId":"3583981517167069","name":"bonghee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1985745ea401a33d47301b661a83036c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583981517167069","idStr":"3583981517167069"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169943265","repostId":"1182315358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182315358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623814338,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182315358?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182315358","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn","content":"<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724d1ea0bb18bddb367c79abf08c1af9\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"841\"><span>It takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>I don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.</p>\n<p>After 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.</p>\n<p>Maybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.</p>\n<p>But I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.</p>\n<p>And if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.</p>\n<p>I’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.</p>\n<p>Trading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how&nbsp;good analysis starts with empathy.</p>\n<p><b>If I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?</b></p>\n<p>So let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference&nbsp;in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:</p>\n<p>Amid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”</p>\n<p>Since that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack&nbsp;went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter&nbsp;went from $27 to $61, and Tesla&nbsp;went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.</p>\n<p>And now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by&nbsp;23-year-old TikTok influencers&nbsp;doing bitcoin&nbsp;trading astrology.</p>\n<p>Yes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.”&nbsp;Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.</p>\n<p><b>Mr. Market</b></p>\n<p>The other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.</p>\n<p>Mr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.</p>\n<p>Sometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6516337aacc614d83584ea90e174f2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"870\"></p>\n<p><b>Learning from Soros</b></p>\n<p>But looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,<i>and</i>the economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.</p>\n<p>It was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager&nbsp;George Soros.</p>\n<p>He wrote, and the concept is important to understand:</p>\n<p>“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…</p>\n<p>“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”</p>\n<p>Stay flexible</p>\n<p>Far-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.</p>\n<p>We don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.</p>\n<p>It’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.</p>\n<p>Most traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.</p>\n<p>We are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.</p>\n<p>I spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.</p>\n<p>As a matter of fact,&nbsp;I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182315358","content_text":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.\nAfter 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.\nMaybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.\nBut I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.\nAnd if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.\nI’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.\nTrading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how good analysis starts with empathy.\nIf I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?\nSo let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:\nAmid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”\nSince that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter went from $27 to $61, and Tesla went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.\nAnd now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by 23-year-old TikTok influencers doing bitcoin trading astrology.\nYes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.” Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.\nMr. Market\nThe other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.\nMr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.\nSometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.\n\nLearning from Soros\nBut looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,andthe economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.\nIt was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager George Soros.\nHe wrote, and the concept is important to understand:\n“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…\n“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…\n“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…\n“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”\nStay flexible\nFar-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.\nWe don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.\nIt’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.\nMost traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.\nWe are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.\nI spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.\nAs a matter of fact, I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}