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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
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2021-07-09
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
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2021-07-09
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What's the next step for the Fed?
是先缩减购债规模还是先加息？
What's the next step for the Fed?
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
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2021-07-06
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Douyu and Huya fell before the market after rumors that the merger plan was blocked
周二，斗鱼盘前跌超10%，虎牙盘前现跌1.64%，此前消息称中国反垄断监管机构正式阻止腾讯合并国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的计划。
Douyu and Huya fell before the market after rumors that the merger plan was blocked
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
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2021-07-06
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Pre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a "roller coaster"
7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。 【中概股】 要闻 周二
Pre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a "roller coaster"
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
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2021-07-03
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
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2021-07-03
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Swan Daojia submits U.S. stock IPO application, sprinting towards the first stock in China's home service platform
周五，据美国证券交易委员会文件，天鹅到家(原58到家)递交美股IPO申请，冲刺中国家庭服务平台第一股。该公司寻求在纽交所上市，交易代码为“JIA”。摩根大通、瑞银集团、中金公司为主承销商。 据艾瑞咨询
Swan Daojia submits U.S. stock IPO application, sprinting towards the first stock in China's home service platform
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
·
2021-07-01
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Last night and this morning: S&P hit a new high! Didi's debut surged and fell back
摘要：美股周三收盘涨跌不一，标普指数再创收盘历史新高；美国原油库存6连降推动美油收涨0.7％！上半年累计飙升逾51％；滴滴赴美上市，筹资44亿美元，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上
Last night and this morning: S&P hit a new high! Didi's debut surged and fell back
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
·
2021-07-01
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Hong Kong stock investment strategy in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs
从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。 摘要 全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中 尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期
Hong Kong stock investment strategy in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
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2021-07-01
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Brokerage gold stocks in July are released! Which stocks have received the most roll calls?
机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。 6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14
Brokerage gold stocks in July are released! Which stocks have received the most roll calls?
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ongbengtee
ongbengtee
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2021-07-01
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Market Overview: Traditional Chinese medicine welcomes the fiercest stimulation! The stock price of "Moutai in Medicine" doubled in 12 days
A股 A股三大指数今日震荡整理，最终沪指微幅收跌0.07%，收报3588.78点；深证成指下跌0.81%，收报15038.88点；创业板指下跌0.63%，收报3455.36点。两市成交额超过一万亿元，
Market Overview: Traditional Chinese medicine welcomes the fiercest stimulation! The stock price of "Moutai in Medicine" doubled in 12 days
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17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What's the next step for the Fed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175143290","media":" FT中文网","summary":"是先缩减购债规模还是先加息？","content":"<p>Relatively strong economic data and high inflation have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may accelerate monetary policy tightening. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? Should we reduce the scale of bond purchases first or rate hike first? The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. From deflation in May last year (down 0.1% year-on-year) to year-on-year inflation in May this year, it hit a new high in 2008 (up 5% year-on-year). Relatively strong U.S. economic data and high inflation have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may accelerate monetary policy tightening.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained a zero-interest rate monetary policy and kept the scale of monthly bond purchases unchanged. As high inflation and economic data continue to improve, many Federal Reserve chairmen have recently conducted pre-communication on future monetary policy in the open market. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? If it is tightened, should it be tapered first (Taper) or rate hike first?<b>Economic data is improving, why is the Fed hesitating?</b></p><p>The manufacturing industry expanded steadily in June, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) recording 60.6 in June. The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. Recent U.S. economic data has continued to improve. In May, the United States announced that inflation increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and core inflation (Core CPI) increased by 3.8% year-on-year. Amid continued positive economic data and high inflation, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained zero interest rates, and the scale of monthly bond purchases remained unchanged. So why is the Fed still hesitant?</p><p>I think there are actually several aspects to analyze. The first one may be the political level, and the second one may be the economic level. However, the political level is complicated, involving the partisanship between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party and the * issue, so I won't explain too much here.</p><p>From an economic perspective, the Fed's monetary policy goals are twofold: employment and inflation. The Fed's peg to monetary policy goals is roughly the same at different times, but it also takes into account other economic factors besides employment and inflation.</p><p>First, the Fed's inflation target is set at 2%, and the core CPE increased by 3.9% year-on-year in May. Even if the base period effect in 2020 is considered (if you look at the month-on-month inflation from March to May 2020, the base period effect of high inflation in May contributes about 1.1% to high inflation), and inflation in May may reach 3.9% (5.0%-1.1%) year-on-year. Therefore, the current year-on-year inflation data can be fully consistent with the Fed's tightening actions. So will inflation peak and fall in the future, and will the United States still face high inflation in the second half of 2021?</p><p>Compared with the year-on-year inflation data, the month-on-month inflation data is also very important, and the month-on-month inflation data can be used to predict the inflation in the next six months. The author uses two scenario assumptions to predict:</p><p>Even assuming that from June to the end of this year, the current price index of end consumer goods remains unchanged (that is, assuming that the month-on-month inflation growth is 0), it is predicted that the inflation in December this year will be about 2.9% ~ 3.0% year-on-year, which is relative to the inflation target. From the 2% level, it is actually a relatively high level. Therefore, based on the above assumptions, inflation will still be relatively high in the second half of 2021.</p><p>Scenario 2: Assuming that the month-on-month inflation growth in the second half of this year is predicted at an average of 0.3%, the year-on-year inflation growth rate at the end of this year is still as high as 5.0%. Judging from this forecast, it should be difficult to say that inflation will fall back quickly in the second half of this year. It should be said that there will still be relatively large inflationary pressure in the United States in the second half of the year.</p><p>Of course, it is not ruled out that in the second half of this year, due to various reasons, such as poor vaccination situation and the recurrence of the epidemic leading to a global economic recession, inflation data may also fall rapidly in this case. Otherwise, inflationary pressures will still exist in the second half of 2021. Based on the inflation forecast of the above assumptions, inflation has actually met the Fed's rate hike conditions.</p><p>Second, the author believes that the key reason for the Fed's hesitation is that the recovery of employment data is not up to expectations. Affected by the epidemic in March 2020, the highest unemployment rate in the United States was close to 15%. The unemployment rate in June was still 5.9%, slightly higher than the 5.8% in May, and the market expected 5.6%. Since the beginning of this year, the unemployment rate has steadily declined. The current unemployment rate of 5.9% is actually higher than the natural unemployment rate of the Federal Reserve. The still high unemployment rate is an important factor preventing the current rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In the week of July 1, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time was 364,000, compared with the previous value of 375,000 and the expected value of 411,000, which is still a certain distance from the pre-epidemic average of 200,000.</p><p>Therefore, despite high economic data and inflation, the Fed is still hesitant to tighten monetary policy mainly because there is still a gap in employment recovery.<b>What's the next step for the Fed?</b></p><p><b>First, inflation is not a key factor for the Fed's next step.</b>May PCE and core PCE were 3.9% and 3.4%. Judging from the author's forecast above, the overall average inflation in the second half of 2021 will not be lower than 3.0%, and the inflation CPI in 2022 is still expected to be higher than 2.0%. It is expected that the core PCE average for 2021 and 2022 may still be above 2%. Therefore, from the perspective of inflation expectations, although the second quarter of 2021 is a periodic high of U.S. inflation, as the economy recovers and commodity prices rise, it should be difficult for U.S. inflation to quickly fall below 2% in a short period of time in the future. Therefore, inflation is not the key factor to prevent the Fed from tightening monetary policy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's next key step is to examine the degree of recovery of the job market.</b>The non-farm employment data for June released on July 2 increased by 850,000, a sharp increase from 559,000 in the previous period. But the unemployment rate remained at 5.9% in June, up slightly from 5.8% in May. The current unemployment rate is still far behind the Fed's target rate. Whether the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy quickly in the next step depends on whether the U.S. economy can fill the unemployment gap caused by the epidemic as it continues to recover.</p><p><b>Third, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy marginally, and it should Taper first and then rate hike.</b>Although the Fomc Meeting in June kept the monetary policy rate and the scale of monthly bond purchases unchanged. But in fact, it has obviously guided the market to tighten monetary policy marginally in advance. According to the dot plot of the Federal Reserve, the rate hike time point has moved forward from the last interest rate meeting, and the Federal Reserve raised the overnight reverse repurchase rate at the meeting. So, whether the next step for the Federal Reserve is rate hike first or Taper first? The author believes that based on past experience, the Federal Reserve should Taper first and then rate hike. There are several main considerations:</p><p>(1) Judging from historical experience, the Federal Reserve tapes first and then rate hike. Looking back at the experience of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the past hundred years, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has experienced the non-independent monetary policy of World War II in history, and it has gradually shifted from the previous quantitative control to price control. During the \"Great Moderation\" period, the Federal Reserve developed into a more price-dependent control means (using Taylor's rule to adjust short-term interest rates), and quantitative control itself was an earlier historical tool. After the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve adopted an unconventional quantitative easing because the monetary policy interest rate could not be lower than zero, and at the same time hoped to increase rescue measures during the financial crisis. Under the influence of this round of epidemic, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet as a whole. It is also partially restricted by zero interest rates. Therefore, under the circumstances, the Federal Reserve should withdraw from quantitative easing tools and rely more on price control. Judging from recent experience, the Federal Reserve chose to Taper first in 2013, and then made its first rate hike in December 2015.</p><p>(2) The Federal Reserve's recent overnight reverse repurchase approaching the trillion scale shows that the US dollar monetary environment is extremely loose, and the extremely loose US dollar environment breeds asset price bubbles. That is, funds may not be effectively transmitted to real enterprises, but more flow into financial markets or areas with financial attributes, causing asset prices to skyrocket. For example, recent crude oil prices, commodities and U.S. real estate prices. Data released on June 29 showed that the U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller Real Estate Value Index rose 14.6% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since 1988. Therefore, on the premise of ensuring economic growth, it is logical for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases and withdraw excess dollar funds in the market.</p><p>(3) The next monetary policy of the Federal Reserve may also need to be combined with the actual situation of US fiscal policy. Affected by the epidemic, the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to increase in 2021-2022. In June, the U.S. Treasury Department stated that in the first eight months of the fiscal year, federal fiscal revenue increased by 29% to a record $2.6 trillion. Spending increased by 20% to a record $4.7 trillion, mainly for unemployment benefits, nutrition assistance and novel coronavirus pneumonia relief programs, and the U.S. fiscal deficit increased to a record $2.1 trillion in the first eight months of this fiscal year. Second, Biden has pushed for trillions of dollars in new spending on infrastructure, clean energy, education and other projects. It is expected that the deficit in fiscal year 2022 will reach $1.84 trillion, and the debt level held by the public will exceed the post-World War II level. Monetary policy interest rates remain low until the epidemic is completely restored, which is more conducive to the implementation of proactive fiscal policies.</p><p>To sum up, the author still believes that if the U.S. economy gradually gets out of the quagmire and maintains rapid recovery, the next step for the Federal Reserve may be to tighten monetary policy marginally from the end of 2021 to 2022, and reduce the scale of bond purchases (Taper) faster than rate hike.</p>","source":"FTZWW","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's the next step for the Fed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's the next step for the Fed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> FT中文网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Relatively strong economic data and high inflation have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may accelerate monetary policy tightening. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? Should we reduce the scale of bond purchases first or rate hike first? The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. From deflation in May last year (down 0.1% year-on-year) to year-on-year inflation in May this year, it hit a new high in 2008 (up 5% year-on-year). Relatively strong U.S. economic data and high inflation have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may accelerate monetary policy tightening.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained a zero-interest rate monetary policy and kept the scale of monthly bond purchases unchanged. As high inflation and economic data continue to improve, many Federal Reserve chairmen have recently conducted pre-communication on future monetary policy in the open market. Will the Fed tighten monetary policy next? If it is tightened, should it be tapered first (Taper) or rate hike first?<b>Economic data is improving, why is the Fed hesitating?</b></p><p>The manufacturing industry expanded steadily in June, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) recording 60.6 in June. The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI hit a record high in June, recording 62.6, exceeding the expected value of 61.5 and the previous value of 62.1. Recent U.S. economic data has continued to improve. In May, the United States announced that inflation increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and core inflation (Core CPI) increased by 3.8% year-on-year. Amid continued positive economic data and high inflation, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June still maintained zero interest rates, and the scale of monthly bond purchases remained unchanged. So why is the Fed still hesitant?</p><p>I think there are actually several aspects to analyze. The first one may be the political level, and the second one may be the economic level. However, the political level is complicated, involving the partisanship between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party and the * issue, so I won't explain too much here.</p><p>From an economic perspective, the Fed's monetary policy goals are twofold: employment and inflation. The Fed's peg to monetary policy goals is roughly the same at different times, but it also takes into account other economic factors besides employment and inflation.</p><p>First, the Fed's inflation target is set at 2%, and the core CPE increased by 3.9% year-on-year in May. Even if the base period effect in 2020 is considered (if you look at the month-on-month inflation from March to May 2020, the base period effect of high inflation in May contributes about 1.1% to high inflation), and inflation in May may reach 3.9% (5.0%-1.1%) year-on-year. Therefore, the current year-on-year inflation data can be fully consistent with the Fed's tightening actions. So will inflation peak and fall in the future, and will the United States still face high inflation in the second half of 2021?</p><p>Compared with the year-on-year inflation data, the month-on-month inflation data is also very important, and the month-on-month inflation data can be used to predict the inflation in the next six months. The author uses two scenario assumptions to predict:</p><p>Even assuming that from June to the end of this year, the current price index of end consumer goods remains unchanged (that is, assuming that the month-on-month inflation growth is 0), it is predicted that the inflation in December this year will be about 2.9% ~ 3.0% year-on-year, which is relative to the inflation target. From the 2% level, it is actually a relatively high level. Therefore, based on the above assumptions, inflation will still be relatively high in the second half of 2021.</p><p>Scenario 2: Assuming that the month-on-month inflation growth in the second half of this year is predicted at an average of 0.3%, the year-on-year inflation growth rate at the end of this year is still as high as 5.0%. Judging from this forecast, it should be difficult to say that inflation will fall back quickly in the second half of this year. It should be said that there will still be relatively large inflationary pressure in the United States in the second half of the year.</p><p>Of course, it is not ruled out that in the second half of this year, due to various reasons, such as poor vaccination situation and the recurrence of the epidemic leading to a global economic recession, inflation data may also fall rapidly in this case. Otherwise, inflationary pressures will still exist in the second half of 2021. Based on the inflation forecast of the above assumptions, inflation has actually met the Fed's rate hike conditions.</p><p>Second, the author believes that the key reason for the Fed's hesitation is that the recovery of employment data is not up to expectations. Affected by the epidemic in March 2020, the highest unemployment rate in the United States was close to 15%. The unemployment rate in June was still 5.9%, slightly higher than the 5.8% in May, and the market expected 5.6%. Since the beginning of this year, the unemployment rate has steadily declined. The current unemployment rate of 5.9% is actually higher than the natural unemployment rate of the Federal Reserve. The still high unemployment rate is an important factor preventing the current rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In the week of July 1, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time was 364,000, compared with the previous value of 375,000 and the expected value of 411,000, which is still a certain distance from the pre-epidemic average of 200,000.</p><p>Therefore, despite high economic data and inflation, the Fed is still hesitant to tighten monetary policy mainly because there is still a gap in employment recovery.<b>What's the next step for the Fed?</b></p><p><b>First, inflation is not a key factor for the Fed's next step.</b>May PCE and core PCE were 3.9% and 3.4%. Judging from the author's forecast above, the overall average inflation in the second half of 2021 will not be lower than 3.0%, and the inflation CPI in 2022 is still expected to be higher than 2.0%. It is expected that the core PCE average for 2021 and 2022 may still be above 2%. Therefore, from the perspective of inflation expectations, although the second quarter of 2021 is a periodic high of U.S. inflation, as the economy recovers and commodity prices rise, it should be difficult for U.S. inflation to quickly fall below 2% in a short period of time in the future. Therefore, inflation is not the key factor to prevent the Fed from tightening monetary policy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's next key step is to examine the degree of recovery of the job market.</b>The non-farm employment data for June released on July 2 increased by 850,000, a sharp increase from 559,000 in the previous period. But the unemployment rate remained at 5.9% in June, up slightly from 5.8% in May. The current unemployment rate is still far behind the Fed's target rate. Whether the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy quickly in the next step depends on whether the U.S. economy can fill the unemployment gap caused by the epidemic as it continues to recover.</p><p><b>Third, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy marginally, and it should Taper first and then rate hike.</b>Although the Fomc Meeting in June kept the monetary policy rate and the scale of monthly bond purchases unchanged. But in fact, it has obviously guided the market to tighten monetary policy marginally in advance. According to the dot plot of the Federal Reserve, the rate hike time point has moved forward from the last interest rate meeting, and the Federal Reserve raised the overnight reverse repurchase rate at the meeting. So, whether the next step for the Federal Reserve is rate hike first or Taper first? The author believes that based on past experience, the Federal Reserve should Taper first and then rate hike. There are several main considerations:</p><p>(1) Judging from historical experience, the Federal Reserve tapes first and then rate hike. Looking back at the experience of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the past hundred years, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has experienced the non-independent monetary policy of World War II in history, and it has gradually shifted from the previous quantitative control to price control. During the \"Great Moderation\" period, the Federal Reserve developed into a more price-dependent control means (using Taylor's rule to adjust short-term interest rates), and quantitative control itself was an earlier historical tool. After the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve adopted an unconventional quantitative easing because the monetary policy interest rate could not be lower than zero, and at the same time hoped to increase rescue measures during the financial crisis. Under the influence of this round of epidemic, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet as a whole. It is also partially restricted by zero interest rates. Therefore, under the circumstances, the Federal Reserve should withdraw from quantitative easing tools and rely more on price control. Judging from recent experience, the Federal Reserve chose to Taper first in 2013, and then made its first rate hike in December 2015.</p><p>(2) The Federal Reserve's recent overnight reverse repurchase approaching the trillion scale shows that the US dollar monetary environment is extremely loose, and the extremely loose US dollar environment breeds asset price bubbles. That is, funds may not be effectively transmitted to real enterprises, but more flow into financial markets or areas with financial attributes, causing asset prices to skyrocket. For example, recent crude oil prices, commodities and U.S. real estate prices. Data released on June 29 showed that the U.S. S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller Real Estate Value Index rose 14.6% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since 1988. Therefore, on the premise of ensuring economic growth, it is logical for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases and withdraw excess dollar funds in the market.</p><p>(3) The next monetary policy of the Federal Reserve may also need to be combined with the actual situation of US fiscal policy. Affected by the epidemic, the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to increase in 2021-2022. In June, the U.S. Treasury Department stated that in the first eight months of the fiscal year, federal fiscal revenue increased by 29% to a record $2.6 trillion. Spending increased by 20% to a record $4.7 trillion, mainly for unemployment benefits, nutrition assistance and novel coronavirus pneumonia relief programs, and the U.S. fiscal deficit increased to a record $2.1 trillion in the first eight months of this fiscal year. Second, Biden has pushed for trillions of dollars in new spending on infrastructure, clean energy, education and other projects. It is expected that the deficit in fiscal year 2022 will reach $1.84 trillion, and the debt level held by the public will exceed the post-World War II level. Monetary policy interest rates remain low until the epidemic is completely restored, which is more conducive to the implementation of proactive fiscal policies.</p><p>To sum up, the author still believes that if the U.S. economy gradually gets out of the quagmire and maintains rapid recovery, the next step for the Federal Reserve may be to tighten monetary policy marginally from the end of 2021 to 2022, and reduce the scale of bond purchases (Taper) faster than rate hike.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g4NMm6zTSYivw_uM5P9O9g\"> FT中文网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g4NMm6zTSYivw_uM5P9O9g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175143290","content_text":"较为强劲的经济数据和高通胀，让市场猜测美联储可能加快收紧货币政策。美联储下一步是否会收紧货币政策？是先缩减购债规模还是先加息？\n\n美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录新高，录得62.6，超过预期值61.5及前值62.1。美国从去年5月通缩（同比跌0.1%）到今年5月同比通胀创2008年新高（同比增长5%）。较为强劲的美国经济数据和高通胀，让市场猜测美联储可能加快收紧货币政策。\n但6月份美联储货币政策会议仍然保持零利率货币政策，维持每月购债规模维持不变。伴随高通胀和经济数据持续转好，近期多位美联储主席也在公开市场对未来货币政策进行预沟通。美联储下一步是否会收紧货币政策？如果收紧是先缩减购债规模（Taper）还是先加息？经济数据向好，美联储为何犹豫不绝？\n6月制造业稳步扩张，美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)6月录得60.6。美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录新高，录得62.6，超过预期值61.5及前值62.1。近期美国经济数据持续向好。5月美国公布通胀同比增长5.0%，核心通胀（Core CPI）同比增长3.8%。持续向好的经济数据和高通胀下，6月份美联储货币政策会议仍然维持零利率，每月购债规模维持不变。那么美联储为什么还犹豫不决？\n笔者觉得其实有几个方面去分析，第一个可能是政治层面，第二个可能是经济层面。但是政治层面比较复杂，涉及民主党和共和党的党派之争、连任问题，这里不做过多说明。\n从经济角度来看，美联储的货币政策目标有两个：就业和通胀。在不同时期美联储盯住的货币政策目标大致相同，但同时也会考虑就业和通胀之外的其他经济因素。\n第一，美联储的通胀目标设定为2%，5月份核心CPE同比增长3.9%，即便考虑2020年的基期效应（如果观察2020年3-5月的通胀环比来看，5月高通胀的基期效应导致高通胀的贡献大约1.1%），5月通胀同比可能达到3.9%（5.0%-1.1%）。因此，从当前的通胀同比数据完全可以符合美联储做出收紧的动作。那么未来的通胀是否会见顶回落，以及2021年下半年美国是否还面临高通胀？\n相对于通胀同比数据而言，通胀环比数据也十分重要，且可以通过通胀环比数据对未来半年的通胀进行预测，作者通过两种情景假设进行预测：\n即使，假设从6月份到今年年底，当前终端消费品的价格指数保持不变（也即是假设通胀环比增长为0），预测今年12月的通胀同比大约2.9%~3.0%，这相对于通胀目标2%的水平来看，其实也是相对蛮高水平。所以，基于上述的假设，2021年下半年仍然会是较高的通胀水平。\n情景2：假设今年下半年的通胀环比增长按照平均0.3%来预测，今年年底通胀同比增长速度仍然高达5.0%。从这个预测来看，今年下半年通胀应该很难说快速回落。应该来说，下半年美国还是有比较大的通胀压力。\n当然也不排除今年下半年因为种种原因，例如疫苗接种情况不良好，疫情再次爆发导致全球经济衰退，这种情况下通胀数据也可能快速回落。否则，2021年下半年通胀压力还是存在的。基于上述假设的通胀预测，其实通胀已经符合美联储的加息条件。\n第二，笔者来看美联储犹豫的关键原因还是就业数据恢复不达预期。2020年3月份受到疫情影响，美国失业率最高接近15%，6月失业率仍然是5.9%，小幅高于5月的5.8%，市场预期5.6%。从今年年初以来，失业率稳步下降。当前的失业率5.9%其实还是高于美联储的自然失业率水平。失业率仍然较高是阻止当前美联储快速收紧货币政策的一个重要因素。7月1日当周，首次申请失业金人数为36.4万人，前值37.5万人，预期值41.1万人，这距离疫情前的平均水平20万人次还有一定距离。\n因此，虽然经济数据和通胀高企，但美联储仍然对收紧货币政策犹豫不决主要还是因为就业恢复还有差距。美联储的下一步如何走？\n第一，通胀并非美联储下一步的关键因素。5月PCE和核心PCE为3.9%和3.4%。从笔者上述的预测来看，2021年下半年整体平均通胀不会低于3.0%，2022年通胀CPI预计可能还是高于2.0%。预计2021年和2022年的核心PCE平均值仍然可能高于2%。因此，从通胀预期来看，虽然2021年2季度是美国通胀的阶段性高点，但随着经济修复和大宗商品价格上涨，未来美国通胀应该较难在短时间快速下行到2%以下。因此通胀并非是阻止美联储收紧货币政策的关键因素。\n第二，美联储下一步关键考察就业市场的恢复程度。7月2日公布的6月份非农就业数据新增为85万人次，较上期55.9万人次大幅上升。但6月份的失业率仍然为5.9%，较5月份的5.8%小幅上升。当前失业率仍然较美联储的目标率有较大差距。下一步美联储是否快速收紧货币政策，关键着力点还是看美国经济持续修复下是否能补齐因为疫情导致的失业缺口人数。\n第三，美联储大概率会边际收紧货币政策，且应该先Taper后加息。6月份的议息会议（Fomc Meeting）虽然维持货币政策利率和每月购债规模不变。但其实已经较为明显提前引导市场可能边际收紧货币政策，根据美联储的点阵图来看，加息时间点比上次议息会议前移，且美联储在会议上提高了隔夜逆回购利率。那么，美联储下一步是先加息还是先Taper，笔者认为根据以往经验来看，美联储应该是先Taper后加息，主要有几个考虑因素：\n（1）从历史经验来看，美联储是先Taper再加息。回顾美联储过去百年的货币政策的施政经验来看，美联储的货币政策历史上经历过二战的非独立货币政策，也从之前的数量调控为主逐步转向了价格调控。“大缓和”时期，美联储发展为更多依赖于价格的调控手段（以泰勒规则来调节短期利率），数量调控本身是较早的历史工具。2008年美国次贷危机之后，美联储因为受到货币政策利率不能低于零，同时又希望加大对金融危机期间的拯救措施，采取了非常规的量化宽松，本轮疫情影响下的美联储扩表整体也是部分受到了零利率的限制。因此符合情况下，美联储理应退出量化宽松工具，更多依赖价格调控。最近一次经验来看，美联储在2013年选择先Taper，然后2015年12月才首次加息。\n（2）美联储近期隔夜逆回购逼近万亿规模说明美元货币环境极度宽松，极度宽松美元环境滋生资产价格泡沫。即资金可能并非能够有效地传导到实体企业，而更多流入金融市场或者具有金融属性的领域，造成资产价格暴涨行情。例如近期的原油价格行情、大宗商品和美国房地产价格行情。6月29日发布的数据显示，美国4月标普CoreLogic凯斯-席勒房地产价值指数同比上涨14.6%，创下1988年以来的最大涨幅。因此，在保证经济增长的前提下，美联储减少资产购规模回笼市场上多余美元资金则顺理成章。\n（3）美联储的下一步货币政策可能还需要结合美国财政政策的实况。受到疫情影响，美国2021-2022年财政赤字不断增加，6月份美国财政部表示，财政年度的前8个月里，联邦财政收入增长了29%，达到创纪录的2.6万亿美元。支出增长了20%，达到创纪录的4.7万亿美元，其中主要为失业救济、营养援助和新冠肺炎救援项目，美国财政赤字在本财年的前8个月增长至创纪录的2.1万亿美元。其次，拜登推动在基础设施、清洁能源、教育和其他项目上拟增加数万亿美元新支出，预计2022财年赤字将达到1.84万亿美元，公众持有的债务水平将超过二战后的水平。货币政策利率在疫情完全修复前保持较低利率，更有利于积极财政政策实施。\n综上，笔者仍然认为如果美国经济逐步走出泥潭并保持快速修复，美联储下一步可能在2021年底-2022年边际收紧货币政策，且缩减购债规模（Taper）快于加息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157897342,"gmtCreate":1625576824586,"gmtModify":1703744108770,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157897342","repostId":"1157219821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157219821","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625560252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157219821?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 16:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Douyu and Huya fell before the market after rumors that the merger plan was blocked","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157219821","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二，斗鱼盘前跌超10%，虎牙盘前现跌1.64%，此前消息称中国反垄断监管机构正式阻止腾讯合并国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的计划。","content":"<p>On Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 10% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>It is now down 1.64% premarket after news that China's antitrust regulator officially blocked<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Plans to merge Huya and Douyu, the two major domestic live broadcast platforms.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Douyu and Huya fell before the market after rumors that the merger plan was blocked</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ 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.h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDouyu and Huya fell before the market after rumors that the merger plan was blocked\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 10% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>It is now down 1.64% premarket after news that China's antitrust regulator officially blocked<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Plans to merge Huya and Douyu, the two major domestic live broadcast platforms.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af724efafb5788a889a167ca9c1dc5c","relate_stocks":{"HUYA":"虎牙","DOYU":"斗鱼"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157219821","content_text":"周二，斗鱼盘前跌超10%，虎牙盘前现跌1.64%，此前消息称中国反垄断监管机构正式阻止腾讯合并国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HUYA":0.9,"DOYU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157894182,"gmtCreate":1625576792546,"gmtModify":1703744107630,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157894182","repostId":"1188552219","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552219","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625573371,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188552219?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 20:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552219","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。\n\n【中概股】\n要闻\n周二","content":"<p>On July 6 (Tuesday), the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed, and the Nasdaq futures rose alone. Today is the first trading day after the Independence Day holiday in the United States, and the market is waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to be released later this week and the US services PMI to be released later today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642410d9a3704d939469b26b3cd3115a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>【<b>Chinese concept stocks]</b></p><p><b>Highlights</b></p><p>On Tuesday,<b>The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Strictly Cracking Down on Illegal Securities Activities in accordance with the Law. The opinion proposes to strengthen the supervision of Chinese concept stocks. Take practical measures to respond to risks and emergencies of Chinese concept stock companies, and promote the construction of relevant regulatory systems. Amend the State Council's special regulations on overseas share offering and listing of joint stock limited companies, clarify the responsibilities of domestic industry supervisors and regulatory authorities, and strengthen cross-departmental supervision and coordination.</b></p><p>It is necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations such as data security, cross-border data flow, and confidential information management. We will promptly revise the regulations on strengthening the confidentiality and file management related to the issuance and listing of securities overseas, and consolidate the main responsibilities of overseas listed companies for information security.</p><p><b>Stock price trend</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Before the market, it once soared by nearly 50%, and then the increase narrowed in a \"diving\" way! According to market news: Cao Guowei, chairman of Weibo, is negotiating with Chinese state-owned investors to privatize the Weibo platform. The hoped privatization price is US $90-100 per share, a premium of 70.13%-89.03% over the previous day's closing price of US $52.9. However,<b>The person in charge of relevant departments in Weibo said that privatization \"rumors are untrue\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6106699a492d43d0297d4369293ff0b2\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell about 20% before the market. Last weekend, relevant authorities announced the implementation of a cyber security review in Didi Chuxing. In order to cooperate with the network security review and prevent the expansion of risks, Didi Chuxing stopped the registration of new users during the review period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The group fell 19% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>Fell nearly 10%. Both of them have been reviewed by relevant departments for network security.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 6% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>It fell more than 2% before the market. According to the source,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The merger plan of Huya and Douyu, the two dominant domestic live broadcast platforms, has been blocked.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell more than 4% before the market. XPeng Automobile will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Today, the black market of Hong Kong stocks fell below the issue price of HK $165 per share, a drop of more than 1%. If XPeng Motor is successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, it will become the first Chinese car company to be listed in new york and Hong Kong for two days in the past three years.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Buying groceries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 3%.</p><p>【<b>Important US stocks]</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>It rose 1.4% before the market. Market news: GameStop plans to build a new factory in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to be put into operation in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It rose more than 3% before the market. Market news: AMC Cinemas will not seek shareholder approval to increase its share capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTM\">Tata Motors</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, as Jaguar Land Rover expected the chip shortage in the second quarter to be worse than in the first quarter.</p><p>The blockchain sector of the U.S. stock market generally rose before the market, but the gains fell back. Bit Digital rose 1.88%, MicroStrategy rose 1.12%, Riot Blockchain rose 2.15%, and Marathon Patent rose 2.01%.</p><p>【<b>Commodities]</b></p><p>International oil prices fell from their highs. Talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) failed on Monday, and the alliance abandoned the meeting after failing to reach an agreement on output policy for the third time due to opposition from the United Arab Emirates, amid expectations that oil supply will tighten, but concerns that members may start increasing production limited gains.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $75.83/barrel, an increase of 0.89%; Brent crude oil futures prices were at $76.92 per barrel, a decrease of 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c6e775cc542e59324e8f2fd3ecb0dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>International gold prices rose. Concerns about global mutated viruses have heated up, and market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates earlier have eased. The market is currently paying close attention to the guidance of the minutes of the Fed meeting.</p><p>As of press time, the price of gold futures in the New York market was at $1,811.90 per ounce, an increase of 1.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a44e298a8125c7cc8c2ffe486bf34b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Big changes in the supervision of Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 20:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 6 (Tuesday), the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed, and the Nasdaq futures rose alone. Today is the first trading day after the Independence Day holiday in the United States, and the market is waiting for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to be released later this week and the US services PMI to be released later today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642410d9a3704d939469b26b3cd3115a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>【<b>Chinese concept stocks]</b></p><p><b>Highlights</b></p><p>On Tuesday,<b>The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Strictly Cracking Down on Illegal Securities Activities in accordance with the Law. The opinion proposes to strengthen the supervision of Chinese concept stocks. Take practical measures to respond to risks and emergencies of Chinese concept stock companies, and promote the construction of relevant regulatory systems. Amend the State Council's special regulations on overseas share offering and listing of joint stock limited companies, clarify the responsibilities of domestic industry supervisors and regulatory authorities, and strengthen cross-departmental supervision and coordination.</b></p><p>It is necessary to improve relevant laws and regulations such as data security, cross-border data flow, and confidential information management. We will promptly revise the regulations on strengthening the confidentiality and file management related to the issuance and listing of securities overseas, and consolidate the main responsibilities of overseas listed companies for information security.</p><p><b>Stock price trend</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Before the market, it once soared by nearly 50%, and then the increase narrowed in a \"diving\" way! According to market news: Cao Guowei, chairman of Weibo, is negotiating with Chinese state-owned investors to privatize the Weibo platform. The hoped privatization price is US $90-100 per share, a premium of 70.13%-89.03% over the previous day's closing price of US $52.9. However,<b>The person in charge of relevant departments in Weibo said that privatization \"rumors are untrue\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6106699a492d43d0297d4369293ff0b2\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell about 20% before the market. Last weekend, relevant authorities announced the implementation of a cyber security review in Didi Chuxing. In order to cooperate with the network security review and prevent the expansion of risks, Didi Chuxing stopped the registration of new users during the review period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The group fell 19% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>Fell nearly 10%. Both of them have been reviewed by relevant departments for network security.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 6% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>It fell more than 2% before the market. According to the source,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The merger plan of Huya and Douyu, the two dominant domestic live broadcast platforms, has been blocked.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell more than 4% before the market. XPeng Automobile will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Today, the black market of Hong Kong stocks fell below the issue price of HK $165 per share, a drop of more than 1%. If XPeng Motor is successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, it will become the first Chinese car company to be listed in new york and Hong Kong for two days in the past three years.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Buying groceries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 3%.</p><p>【<b>Important US stocks]</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>It rose 1.4% before the market. Market news: GameStop plans to build a new factory in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to be put into operation in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It rose more than 3% before the market. Market news: AMC Cinemas will not seek shareholder approval to increase its share capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTM\">Tata Motors</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, as Jaguar Land Rover expected the chip shortage in the second quarter to be worse than in the first quarter.</p><p>The blockchain sector of the U.S. stock market generally rose before the market, but the gains fell back. Bit Digital rose 1.88%, MicroStrategy rose 1.12%, Riot Blockchain rose 2.15%, and Marathon Patent rose 2.01%.</p><p>【<b>Commodities]</b></p><p>International oil prices fell from their highs. Talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) failed on Monday, and the alliance abandoned the meeting after failing to reach an agreement on output policy for the third time due to opposition from the United Arab Emirates, amid expectations that oil supply will tighten, but concerns that members may start increasing production limited gains.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $75.83/barrel, an increase of 0.89%; Brent crude oil futures prices were at $76.92 per barrel, a decrease of 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c6e775cc542e59324e8f2fd3ecb0dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>International gold prices rose. Concerns about global mutated viruses have heated up, and market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates earlier have eased. The market is currently paying close attention to the guidance of the minutes of the Fed meeting.</p><p>As of press time, the price of gold futures in the New York market was at $1,811.90 per ounce, an increase of 1.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a44e298a8125c7cc8c2ffe486bf34b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552219","content_text":"7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。\n\n【中概股】\n要闻\n周二，中办、国办印发《关于依法从严打击证券违法活动的意见》。意见提出，要加强中概股监管。切实采取措施做好中概股公司风险及突发情况应对，推进相关监管制度体系建设。修改国务院关于股份有限公司境外募集股份及上市的特别规定，明确境内行业主管和监管部门职责，加强跨部门监管协同。\n要完善数据安全、跨境数据流动、涉密信息管理等相关法律法规。抓紧修订关于加强在境外发行证券与上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定，压实境外上市公司信息安全主体责任。\n股价走势\n微博盘前一度暴涨近50%，后涨幅呈“跳水”式收窄！市场消息称：微博董事长曹国伟和中国国有投资者洽谈将微博平台私有化，希望的私有化价格为每股90-100美元，较前日收盘价52.9美元溢价70.13%-89.03%。不过，微博相关部门负责人表示，私有化“传言不实”。\n\n滴滴盘前跌约20%。上周末，有关部门宣布对滴滴出行实施网络安全审查。为配合网络安全审查工作，防范风险扩大，审查期间滴滴出行停止新用户注册。\n满帮集团盘前大跌19%，BOSS直聘跌近10%。二者均被有关部门进行网络安全审查。\n斗鱼盘前跌超6%，虎牙盘前跌超2%。消息称，腾讯主导的国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的合并计划已经被阻止。\n小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%。小鹏汽车将于本周三在港交所挂牌上市，今日港股暗盘跌破发行价165港元/股，跌幅超过1%。如果小鹏汽车明天成功在港交所挂牌上市，将成为近三年以来首个在纽约香港两天上市的中国车企。\n同时，理想汽车、蔚来跌超2%。\n热门中概股普遍下跌。其中，知乎跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%，叮咚买菜、每日优鲜跌超5%，好未来、高途跌超3%。\n【重要美股】\n游戏驿站盘前涨1.4%。市场消息：游戏驿站计划在内华达州里诺市建立新工厂，预计于2022年投入运营。\nAMC院线盘前涨超3%。市场消息：AMC院线不会寻求股东批准增加股本。\n塔塔汽车盘前跌超8%，因捷豹路虎预计第二季度芯片短缺的情况将比第一季度更严重。\n美股区块链板块盘前普涨，但涨幅有所回落。Bit Digital涨1.88%，MicroStrategy涨1.12%，Riot Blockchain涨2.15%，Marathon Patent涨2.01%。\n【大宗商品】\n国际油价从高点回落。石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)在周一举行的谈判失败，由于阿联酋的反对，该联盟在第三次未能就产出政策达成协议后放弃了这次会议，市场预期油市供应将趋紧，但对成员国可能开始增产的担忧限制了涨幅。\n截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.83美元/桶，涨幅0.89%；布伦特原油期货价格报76.92美元/桶，跌幅0.31%。\n\n国际金价上涨。全球变异病毒造成的担忧情绪升温，且市场对美联储更早升息的担忧缓和，目前市场密切关注美联储会议纪要的指引。\n截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1811.90美元/盎司，涨幅1.60%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152889552,"gmtCreate":1625280704376,"gmtModify":1703739895465,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152889552","repostId":"1125914096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152889006,"gmtCreate":1625280686605,"gmtModify":1703739893510,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152889006","repostId":"2148780149","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148780149","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625271343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148780149?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 08:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Swan Daojia submits U.S. stock IPO application, sprinting towards the first stock in China's home service platform","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148780149","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，据美国证券交易委员会文件，天鹅到家(原58到家)递交美股IPO申请，冲刺中国家庭服务平台第一股。该公司寻求在纽交所上市，交易代码为“JIA”。摩根大通、瑞银集团、中金公司为主承销商。\n据艾瑞咨询","content":"<p>On Friday, according to documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Swan Daojia (formerly 58 Daojia) submitted an IPO application for the U.S. stock market, sprinting for the first share of China's home service platform. The company seeks to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"JIA.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>As the lead underwriter.</p><p>According to data from iResearch, the market size of Chinese home services is very large. In 2020, the market size will be about 909 billion yuan (the same below), and it is expected to increase to about 2.12 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.5%. In terms of market share, as of 2020, the penetration rate of Swan Daojia in the national target market is 8%, and the penetration rate in 29 self-operated cities is 22.3%. The market potential and development space are huge.</p><p>Swan Daojia was established in 2014 and belongs to Daojia Group. On September 7, 2020, it was officially renamed from \"58 Daojia\" to \"Swan Daojia\". According to the prospectus, the GTV (total transaction volume) of the Swan Daojia platform is as high as 8.828 billion yuan (US $1.353 billion), more than twice the sum of the second to fifth places in the same industry.</p><p>In terms of main business income, Swan Daojia's main business income in 2019 was 611 million yuan, an increase of 53.3% over 2018. The main business income in 2020 was 711 million yuan (US $109 million), an increase of 16.4% from 2019. The company's main business income in the first quarter of 2021 was 197 million yuan, an increase of 38.4% from 142 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The company's gross profits in 2018 and 2019 were 51.74 million yuan and 159 million yuan respectively, a substantial increase of 208.2%. In 2020, the gross profit was 278 million yuan (US $42.45 million), a year-on-year increase of 74.5%. At the same time, the gross profit margin has increased from 13% in 2018 to 46% in the first quarter of 2021, and both gross profit and gross profit margin have achieved double-digit three-year consecutive increases.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Swan Daojia submits U.S. stock IPO application, sprinting towards the first stock in China's home service platform</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSwan Daojia submits U.S. stock IPO application, sprinting towards the first stock in China's home service platform\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-03 08:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Friday, according to documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Swan Daojia (formerly 58 Daojia) submitted an IPO application for the U.S. stock market, sprinting for the first share of China's home service platform. The company seeks to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"JIA.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>As the lead underwriter.</p><p>According to data from iResearch, the market size of Chinese home services is very large. In 2020, the market size will be about 909 billion yuan (the same below), and it is expected to increase to about 2.12 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.5%. In terms of market share, as of 2020, the penetration rate of Swan Daojia in the national target market is 8%, and the penetration rate in 29 self-operated cities is 22.3%. The market potential and development space are huge.</p><p>Swan Daojia was established in 2014 and belongs to Daojia Group. On September 7, 2020, it was officially renamed from \"58 Daojia\" to \"Swan Daojia\". According to the prospectus, the GTV (total transaction volume) of the Swan Daojia platform is as high as 8.828 billion yuan (US $1.353 billion), more than twice the sum of the second to fifth places in the same industry.</p><p>In terms of main business income, Swan Daojia's main business income in 2019 was 611 million yuan, an increase of 53.3% over 2018. The main business income in 2020 was 711 million yuan (US $109 million), an increase of 16.4% from 2019. The company's main business income in the first quarter of 2021 was 197 million yuan, an increase of 38.4% from 142 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>The company's gross profits in 2018 and 2019 were 51.74 million yuan and 159 million yuan respectively, a substantial increase of 208.2%. In 2020, the gross profit was 278 million yuan (US $42.45 million), a year-on-year increase of 74.5%. At the same time, the gross profit margin has increased from 13% in 2018 to 46% in the first quarter of 2021, and both gross profit and gross profit margin have achieved double-digit three-year consecutive increases.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7123c00c718afd2209048e9d94f04a1","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148780149","content_text":"周五，据美国证券交易委员会文件，天鹅到家(原58到家)递交美股IPO申请，冲刺中国家庭服务平台第一股。该公司寻求在纽交所上市，交易代码为“JIA”。摩根大通、瑞银集团、中金公司为主承销商。\n据艾瑞咨询的数据，中国家庭服务领域的市场规模非常庞大，2020年市场规模约9090亿元人民币(下同)，预计到2025年增加到约2.12万亿元，年复合增长18.5%。市场份额方面，截至2020年，天鹅到家在全国目标市场渗透率为8%，在自营29个城市目标市场渗透率为22.3%，市场潜力和发展空间巨大。\n天鹅到家成立于2014年，隶属于到家集团，2020年9月7日正式由“58到家”改名为“天鹅到家”。招股书显示，天鹅到家平台GTV (总交易额)高达88.28亿元(合13.53亿美元)，比同行业第2名至第5名总和的两倍还多。\n主营业务收入方面，天鹅到家2019年的主营业务收入6.11亿元，较2018年增长53.3%。2020年的主营业务收入7.11亿元(合1.09亿美元)，较2019年增长16.4%。2021年公司第一季度主营业务收入为1.97亿元，较2020年一季度的1.42亿元增长38.4%。\n公司2018年与2019年的毛利润分别为5174万元与1.59亿元，大幅增长208.2%。2020年实现毛利润2.78亿元(合4245万美元)，同比增长74.5%。与此同时，毛利率从2018年的13%，增长到2021年一季度的46%，毛利润和毛利率双双实现高达两位数的三年连涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158951709,"gmtCreate":1625125457801,"gmtModify":1703736621737,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158951709","repostId":"1133219370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133219370","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625096461,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133219370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: S&P hit a new high! Didi's debut surged and fell back","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133219370","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股周三收盘涨跌不一，标普指数再创收盘历史新高；美国原油库存6连降推动美油收涨0.7％！上半年累计飙升逾51％；滴滴赴美上市，筹资44亿美元，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上","content":"<p>Summary: U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P index hitting a record closing high; U.S. crude oil inventories fell for 6 consecutive days, pushing U.S. oil up 0.7%! In the first half of the year, it soared by more than 51%; Didi went public in the United States, raising US $4.4 billion, with an opening price of US $18, an increase of nearly 29% compared with the IPO price of US $14 per share. Overseas Market</p><p>1. Closing: The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 12% in the first half of the year</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P hitting another record closing high. The three major stock indexes all rose by more than 12% in the first half of the year. The market is evaluating the June ADP employment data and the May second-hand home sales contract report, and waiting for more economic data on the labor market such as non-farm payrolls. The Dow closed up 210.22 points, or 0.61%, at 34,502.51 points; The Nasdaq fell 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95 points; The S&P 500 rose 5.70 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.50 points.</p><p>Didi closed 1.4% higher. The company has determined to set the U.S. stock IPO price at the top of the guidance range of $14/ADS, which is at the upper price limit of the issuance range of $13-14, which means that the company's valuation exceeds $67 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery buying closed sharply higher. Yesterday, the first listing rose slightly by 0.09%, and once broke during the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>The IPO price of Hong Kong stocks is determined to be HK $165 per share, and trading will begin on July 7.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, and Didi once rose more than 20% during the session.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Didi, the first stock of Chinese concept network car, was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The intraday increase once exceeded 20%, and finally closed up 1%; China's first hip-hop stock, Pupu Culture, officially landed on Nasdaq, triggered the circuit breaker several times during the session, and finally closed soared 405%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Maicai rose nearly 63% the next day after its listing, and once rose nearly 100% during the session.</p><p>Manbang rose by more than 26%, Ruixing powder orders rose by more than 22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTC\">Haichuan Securities</a>Rose more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro-loan network</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent theory</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EZGO\">Yidianxing</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNET\">China grid carrier line</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>, Renren Company rose more than 2%, Weibo rose more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>It closed flat.</p><p>3. European stocks closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose more than 13% in the first half of this year.</p><p>European stocks rose strongly in the first half of 2021 but fell slightly on the last session of the second quarter, on Wednesday (June 30), as investors came to ongoing concerns about COVID-19 pandemic and rising inflation.</p><p>The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 3.53 points, or 0.77%, at 452.84 points. However, the stock index has still risen by more than 13% so far this year; Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane said he was \"uneasy\" about the Bank's nearly £ 1 trillion balance sheet. The data shows that the economy is changing rapidly. It is expected that the UK inflation rate may close to 4% (rather than 3%) at the end of the year, presenting policymakers with the biggest challenge since the pound crash in 1992.</p><p>4. U.S. crude oil inventories fell for 6 consecutive days, pushing U.S. oil up 0.7%! The cumulative surge in the first half of the year exceeded</p><p>U.S. WIT futures prices rose 0.7% to close at US $73.47 per barrel, up 24.2% in the second quarter and more than 51% in the first half of the year; International Brent oil prices rose 0.5% to close at US $74.62 per barrel, up 18.2% in the second quarter and 45% in the first half of the year.</p><p>5. The price of gold closed up 0.5%, but fell by more than 7% in June! Biggest monthly drop in 8 years</p><p>Gold futures prices rose 0.5% to close at $1,771.60 an ounce, but fell more than 7% in June, the largest monthly drop in eight years, as the U.S. dollar exchange rate rose more than 2% this month.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Fed Kaplan says the market knows that tapering is coming, it's just a matter of when</p><p>Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said that reducing the scale of central bank asset purchases should be \"gradual\", and he also reiterated the view that it would be prudent to start this process sooner rather than later.</p><p>2. Faced with high valuations and underweight prospects, Wall Street warns that the best days for corporate bonds may be over</p><p>High valuations and the prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering stimulus measures have led a growing number of analysts and investors to warn that the best days for the corporate bond market may be behind us.</p><p>The reopening of the economy, strong corporate earnings and unprecedented Federal Reserve support helped push risk premiums on high-grade and high-yield bonds to their lowest levels in more than a decade in the first half. With tapering discussions on the horizon and the prospect of a gradual recovery in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, many on Wall Street are warning that it's time for credit investors to take defensive measures.</p><p>3. Atlanta Fed President: It will take some time for the United States to reach employment goals</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that while the United States has \"actually fully recovered\" from the epidemic in terms of gross domestic product, employment \"will take some time to go back\" and is now about 9 million to 10 million jobs lower than the pre-epidemic trend.</p><p>4. Bubble bursting: U.S. lumber prices plummeted more than 40% in June, the largest monthly drop on record</p><p>The huge wood bubble of 2021 has burst.</p><p>With the increase of supply, the cooling of speculative trading activity and the slowing demand for residential construction, lumber prices have fallen sharply from the spring. Lumber futures fell 42% in June alone, their worst month since 1978. The construction commodity is down more than 13% year-to-date, the first decline since the first half of 2015.</p><p>Lumber prices peaked on May 7, hitting an all-time high of $1,670.50 per thousand board feet, more than six times higher than the low in April 2020.</p><p>5. The Fed's reverse repurchase demand rose to a record high of nearly $1 trillion at the end of the quarter</p><p>Demand for a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to help control short-term interest rates soared to nearly $1 trillion, a record high.</p><p>New York Fed data showed that 90 participants deposited a total of $992 billion with the Fed through the overnight reverse repurchase facility on Wednesday, setting a new record high of $841.2 billion set on Tuesday. The number of counterparties was the highest since 2016, and the increase in volume was the largest since June 17.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Raised euro zone economic growth forecast for 2021 from 4.3% to 5.1%</p><p>Economists such as Reinhard Cluse wrote in a report to clients that relaxing epidemic prevention restrictions would lead to a \"stronger\" rebound in the euro zone economy in the second and third quarters than previously expected; The economic contraction in the first quarter was less severe than expected, and fiscal support was stronger than expected; The growth forecast for 2022 remains at 5.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The economy is expected to reach pre-pandemic size in the fourth quarter of 2021, a quarter earlier than previously expected.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148843618\" target=\"_blank\">An important OPEC + meeting is imminent and may have a key impact on oil prices</a></p><p>OPEC and its allies are preparing for a meeting that may be crucial to oil prices, while discussions continue on whether to continue increasing production.</p><p>A familiar dynamic emerged from the group's initial discussions ahead of Thursday's decision on output policy for August and beyond. On the one hand, Russia and Kazakhstan offered to increase supplies. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies in the Gulf discussed a more cautious approach.</p><p>8. Federal Reserve Governor Waller joins the ranks of policymakers who support the priority reduction of MBS purchases</p><p>Fed officials who prefer to prioritize tapering mortgage-backed securities (MBS) when they begin to scale back asset purchases have received a response from Governor Christopher Waller.</p><p>Federal Reserve officials have begun discussing when and how to slow down plans to buy $80 billion a month in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS, which are designed to help the economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Waller said that due to the strong recovery of the U.S. economy, the tapering may be timed earlier than officials expected at the end of 2020, perhaps before the end of the year.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1145558758\" target=\"_blank\">Didi went public in the United States and raised US $4.4 billion! Wall Street: Looking forward to the next growth chapter</a></p><p>Didi's IPO was since 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The largest IPO transaction of a Chinese company in the United States since the group went public in the United States to raise $25 billion in funds.</p><p>Didi sold 316.8 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an IPO price of $14 per share, up from the previously planned 288 million shares, which will value Didi at about $73 billion on a fully diluted basis and $67.5 billion on a non-diluted basis.</p><p>DIDI's shares have been listed on the new york Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", with an opening price of $18, up nearly 29% compared with the IPO price of $14 per share.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1112995170\" target=\"_blank\">Ruixing's stock price soared nearly 30% in the pink sheet market, with revenue of 3 billion yuan and loss of 3.16 billion yuan in 2019</a></p><p>Wednesday midday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>The stock price soared by nearly 30% in the pink sheet market. The previously announced financial report showed that the revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 1.0499 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.6%; The net loss was 1.1285 billion yuan, compared with a net loss of 669 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2018.</p><p>June 30th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">Luckin Coffee</a>(China) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the \"Company\") reissued the audited 2019 annual financial report. According to the statement, according to the disclosure requirements of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the company will continue to actively fulfill its disclosure obligations, release the 2020 annual financial report as soon as possible, and gradually return to the normal financial report disclosure progress. The statement also shows that as of the end of June this year, the number of Ruixing stores nationwide has exceeded 5,200, the cumulative number of consumer users has exceeded 75 million, and the monthly sales volume of raw coconut series has exceeded 10 million cups.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148848730\" target=\"_blank\">China's first hip-hop stock, Pupu Culture, listed on Nasdaq and closed sharply by 405% on the first day</a></p><p>Xiamen Pupu Culture, the first Chinese hip-hop stock, opened at US $12.26 on the first day of its US IPO. The previously given IPO price was US $6.00 per ADS. Subsequently, the gains expanded further, rising 405% at $30.3 as of the close. Pupu Culture announced the pricing of its initial public offering earlier on Wednesday, offering 6,200,000 Class A common shares at a price of $6 per share. The Company's Class A common stock has been admitted for trading on the Nasdaq Global Market and is expected to commence public trading on the Nasdaq on June 30, 2021, Eastern Time under the ticker symbol \"CPOP.\"</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148177168\" target=\"_blank\">Dingdong Maicai once skyrocketed by nearly 100% Netizens: American retail investors regard Dingdong code as Didi?</a></p><p>Unexpectedly, the vegetable stocks listed in the United States ushered in a big reversal. In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>After the listing broke, Dingdong Maicai greatly reduced the amount of financing, and once broke on the day of listing. Fortunately, it rose slightly at the close, but unexpectedly, on the evening of 30th, there was a shocking reversal, which once soared by nearly 100%, during which it experienced two circuit breakers!</p><p>On June 30th, the day after Dingdong Maicai's listing, its increase expanded to 43%, triggering the fuse to suspend trading. Subsequently, Dingdong Maicai resumed trading and continued to expand its gains, with an increase of 77.72% to US $41.8. It triggered the circuit breaker for the second time, and then continued trading. The stock price once soared 94%, and the market value once stood at 10 billion US dollars!</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148810005\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon's hard counterattack: The new FTC chairman should not participate in the antitrust investigation against us!</a></p><p>Lina Khan, the new top leader of the US Federal Trade Commission, can be called an antitrust fighter and has repeatedly issued documents saying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Violated antitrust laws and should be spun off. Amazon said this would make the antitrust investigation against the company face an unfair trial, and hoped Khan would not participate in the investigation. The analysis pointed out that it is a critical moment for Amazon and FTC.</p><p>E-commerce giant Amazon submitted a 25-page motion to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Wednesday, June 30, applying for the FTC's new Democratic chairman Lina Khan to recuse himself from the regulator's antitrust investigation into Amazon.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: S&P hit a new high! Didi's debut surged and fell back</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: S&P hit a new high! Didi's debut surged and fell back\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 07:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary: U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P index hitting a record closing high; U.S. crude oil inventories fell for 6 consecutive days, pushing U.S. oil up 0.7%! In the first half of the year, it soared by more than 51%; Didi went public in the United States, raising US $4.4 billion, with an opening price of US $18, an increase of nearly 29% compared with the IPO price of US $14 per share. Overseas Market</p><p>1. Closing: The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 12% in the first half of the year</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P hitting another record closing high. The three major stock indexes all rose by more than 12% in the first half of the year. The market is evaluating the June ADP employment data and the May second-hand home sales contract report, and waiting for more economic data on the labor market such as non-farm payrolls. The Dow closed up 210.22 points, or 0.61%, at 34,502.51 points; The Nasdaq fell 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95 points; The S&P 500 rose 5.70 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.50 points.</p><p>Didi closed 1.4% higher. The company has determined to set the U.S. stock IPO price at the top of the guidance range of $14/ADS, which is at the upper price limit of the issuance range of $13-14, which means that the company's valuation exceeds $67 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Grocery buying closed sharply higher. Yesterday, the first listing rose slightly by 0.09%, and once broke during the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>The IPO price of Hong Kong stocks is determined to be HK $165 per share, and trading will begin on July 7.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, and Didi once rose more than 20% during the session.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Wednesday. Didi, the first stock of Chinese concept network car, was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The intraday increase once exceeded 20%, and finally closed up 1%; China's first hip-hop stock, Pupu Culture, officially landed on Nasdaq, triggered the circuit breaker several times during the session, and finally closed soared 405%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Maicai rose nearly 63% the next day after its listing, and once rose nearly 100% during the session.</p><p>Manbang rose by more than 26%, Ruixing powder orders rose by more than 22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTC\">Haichuan Securities</a>Rose more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro-loan network</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent theory</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EZGO\">Yidianxing</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNET\">China grid carrier line</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>, Renren Company rose more than 2%, Weibo rose more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>It closed flat.</p><p>3. European stocks closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose more than 13% in the first half of this year.</p><p>European stocks rose strongly in the first half of 2021 but fell slightly on the last session of the second quarter, on Wednesday (June 30), as investors came to ongoing concerns about COVID-19 pandemic and rising inflation.</p><p>The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 3.53 points, or 0.77%, at 452.84 points. However, the stock index has still risen by more than 13% so far this year; Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane said he was \"uneasy\" about the Bank's nearly £ 1 trillion balance sheet. The data shows that the economy is changing rapidly. It is expected that the UK inflation rate may close to 4% (rather than 3%) at the end of the year, presenting policymakers with the biggest challenge since the pound crash in 1992.</p><p>4. U.S. crude oil inventories fell for 6 consecutive days, pushing U.S. oil up 0.7%! The cumulative surge in the first half of the year exceeded</p><p>U.S. WIT futures prices rose 0.7% to close at US $73.47 per barrel, up 24.2% in the second quarter and more than 51% in the first half of the year; International Brent oil prices rose 0.5% to close at US $74.62 per barrel, up 18.2% in the second quarter and 45% in the first half of the year.</p><p>5. The price of gold closed up 0.5%, but fell by more than 7% in June! Biggest monthly drop in 8 years</p><p>Gold futures prices rose 0.5% to close at $1,771.60 an ounce, but fell more than 7% in June, the largest monthly drop in eight years, as the U.S. dollar exchange rate rose more than 2% this month.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Fed Kaplan says the market knows that tapering is coming, it's just a matter of when</p><p>Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said that reducing the scale of central bank asset purchases should be \"gradual\", and he also reiterated the view that it would be prudent to start this process sooner rather than later.</p><p>2. Faced with high valuations and underweight prospects, Wall Street warns that the best days for corporate bonds may be over</p><p>High valuations and the prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering stimulus measures have led a growing number of analysts and investors to warn that the best days for the corporate bond market may be behind us.</p><p>The reopening of the economy, strong corporate earnings and unprecedented Federal Reserve support helped push risk premiums on high-grade and high-yield bonds to their lowest levels in more than a decade in the first half. With tapering discussions on the horizon and the prospect of a gradual recovery in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, many on Wall Street are warning that it's time for credit investors to take defensive measures.</p><p>3. Atlanta Fed President: It will take some time for the United States to reach employment goals</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that while the United States has \"actually fully recovered\" from the epidemic in terms of gross domestic product, employment \"will take some time to go back\" and is now about 9 million to 10 million jobs lower than the pre-epidemic trend.</p><p>4. Bubble bursting: U.S. lumber prices plummeted more than 40% in June, the largest monthly drop on record</p><p>The huge wood bubble of 2021 has burst.</p><p>With the increase of supply, the cooling of speculative trading activity and the slowing demand for residential construction, lumber prices have fallen sharply from the spring. Lumber futures fell 42% in June alone, their worst month since 1978. The construction commodity is down more than 13% year-to-date, the first decline since the first half of 2015.</p><p>Lumber prices peaked on May 7, hitting an all-time high of $1,670.50 per thousand board feet, more than six times higher than the low in April 2020.</p><p>5. The Fed's reverse repurchase demand rose to a record high of nearly $1 trillion at the end of the quarter</p><p>Demand for a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to help control short-term interest rates soared to nearly $1 trillion, a record high.</p><p>New York Fed data showed that 90 participants deposited a total of $992 billion with the Fed through the overnight reverse repurchase facility on Wednesday, setting a new record high of $841.2 billion set on Tuesday. The number of counterparties was the highest since 2016, and the increase in volume was the largest since June 17.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Raised euro zone economic growth forecast for 2021 from 4.3% to 5.1%</p><p>Economists such as Reinhard Cluse wrote in a report to clients that relaxing epidemic prevention restrictions would lead to a \"stronger\" rebound in the euro zone economy in the second and third quarters than previously expected; The economic contraction in the first quarter was less severe than expected, and fiscal support was stronger than expected; The growth forecast for 2022 remains at 5.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The economy is expected to reach pre-pandemic size in the fourth quarter of 2021, a quarter earlier than previously expected.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148843618\" target=\"_blank\">An important OPEC + meeting is imminent and may have a key impact on oil prices</a></p><p>OPEC and its allies are preparing for a meeting that may be crucial to oil prices, while discussions continue on whether to continue increasing production.</p><p>A familiar dynamic emerged from the group's initial discussions ahead of Thursday's decision on output policy for August and beyond. On the one hand, Russia and Kazakhstan offered to increase supplies. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies in the Gulf discussed a more cautious approach.</p><p>8. Federal Reserve Governor Waller joins the ranks of policymakers who support the priority reduction of MBS purchases</p><p>Fed officials who prefer to prioritize tapering mortgage-backed securities (MBS) when they begin to scale back asset purchases have received a response from Governor Christopher Waller.</p><p>Federal Reserve officials have begun discussing when and how to slow down plans to buy $80 billion a month in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS, which are designed to help the economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Waller said that due to the strong recovery of the U.S. economy, the tapering may be timed earlier than officials expected at the end of 2020, perhaps before the end of the year.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1145558758\" target=\"_blank\">Didi went public in the United States and raised US $4.4 billion! Wall Street: Looking forward to the next growth chapter</a></p><p>Didi's IPO was since 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The largest IPO transaction of a Chinese company in the United States since the group went public in the United States to raise $25 billion in funds.</p><p>Didi sold 316.8 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an IPO price of $14 per share, up from the previously planned 288 million shares, which will value Didi at about $73 billion on a fully diluted basis and $67.5 billion on a non-diluted basis.</p><p>DIDI's shares have been listed on the new york Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", with an opening price of $18, up nearly 29% compared with the IPO price of $14 per share.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1112995170\" target=\"_blank\">Ruixing's stock price soared nearly 30% in the pink sheet market, with revenue of 3 billion yuan and loss of 3.16 billion yuan in 2019</a></p><p>Wednesday midday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>The stock price soared by nearly 30% in the pink sheet market. The previously announced financial report showed that the revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 1.0499 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.6%; The net loss was 1.1285 billion yuan, compared with a net loss of 669 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2018.</p><p>June 30th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">Luckin Coffee</a>(China) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the \"Company\") reissued the audited 2019 annual financial report. According to the statement, according to the disclosure requirements of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the company will continue to actively fulfill its disclosure obligations, release the 2020 annual financial report as soon as possible, and gradually return to the normal financial report disclosure progress. The statement also shows that as of the end of June this year, the number of Ruixing stores nationwide has exceeded 5,200, the cumulative number of consumer users has exceeded 75 million, and the monthly sales volume of raw coconut series has exceeded 10 million cups.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148848730\" target=\"_blank\">China's first hip-hop stock, Pupu Culture, listed on Nasdaq and closed sharply by 405% on the first day</a></p><p>Xiamen Pupu Culture, the first Chinese hip-hop stock, opened at US $12.26 on the first day of its US IPO. The previously given IPO price was US $6.00 per ADS. Subsequently, the gains expanded further, rising 405% at $30.3 as of the close. Pupu Culture announced the pricing of its initial public offering earlier on Wednesday, offering 6,200,000 Class A common shares at a price of $6 per share. The Company's Class A common stock has been admitted for trading on the Nasdaq Global Market and is expected to commence public trading on the Nasdaq on June 30, 2021, Eastern Time under the ticker symbol \"CPOP.\"</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148177168\" target=\"_blank\">Dingdong Maicai once skyrocketed by nearly 100% Netizens: American retail investors regard Dingdong code as Didi?</a></p><p>Unexpectedly, the vegetable stocks listed in the United States ushered in a big reversal. In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>After the listing broke, Dingdong Maicai greatly reduced the amount of financing, and once broke on the day of listing. Fortunately, it rose slightly at the close, but unexpectedly, on the evening of 30th, there was a shocking reversal, which once soared by nearly 100%, during which it experienced two circuit breakers!</p><p>On June 30th, the day after Dingdong Maicai's listing, its increase expanded to 43%, triggering the fuse to suspend trading. Subsequently, Dingdong Maicai resumed trading and continued to expand its gains, with an increase of 77.72% to US $41.8. It triggered the circuit breaker for the second time, and then continued trading. The stock price once soared 94%, and the market value once stood at 10 billion US dollars!</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2148810005\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon's hard counterattack: The new FTC chairman should not participate in the antitrust investigation against us!</a></p><p>Lina Khan, the new top leader of the US Federal Trade Commission, can be called an antitrust fighter and has repeatedly issued documents saying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Violated antitrust laws and should be spun off. Amazon said this would make the antitrust investigation against the company face an unfair trial, and hoped Khan would not participate in the investigation. The analysis pointed out that it is a critical moment for Amazon and FTC.</p><p>E-commerce giant Amazon submitted a 25-page motion to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Wednesday, June 30, applying for the FTC's new Democratic chairman Lina Khan to recuse himself from the regulator's antitrust investigation into Amazon.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133219370","content_text":"摘要：美股周三收盘涨跌不一，标普指数再创收盘历史新高；美国原油库存6连降推动美油收涨0.7％！上半年累计飙升逾51％；滴滴赴美上市，筹资44亿美元，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上涨近29%。\n\n海外市场\n1、收盘：上半年美股三大股指涨幅均超12%\n美股周三收盘涨跌不一，标普指数再创收盘历史新高。三大股指上半年涨幅均超过12%。市场正在评估6月ADP就业数据与5月二手房销售签约报告，并等待非农就业等更多有关劳动力市场的经济数据。道指收盘上涨210.22点，或0.61%，报34502.51点；纳指跌24.38点，或0.17%，报14503.95点；标普500指数涨5.70点，或0.13%，报4297.50点。\n滴滴收高1.4%。该公司确定将美股IPO价格定在指导区间顶部14美元/ADS，位于13-14美元的发行区间价格上限，这意味着公司估值超过670亿美元。叮咚买菜大幅收高。昨日首挂微涨0.09%，盘中一度破发。小鹏汽车港股IPO发售价确定为每股165港元，7月7日开始交易。\n2、热门中概股周三收盘涨跌不一 滴滴盘中一度涨超20%\n热门中概股周三收盘涨跌不一，中概网约车第一股滴滴正式在纽交所上市，盘中涨幅一度超过20%，最终收涨1%；中国嘻哈第一股普普文化正式登陆纳斯达克，盘中多次触发熔断，最终收盘飙升405%；叮咚买菜上市次日涨近63%，盘中一度大涨近100%。\n满帮涨超26%，瑞兴粉单涨超22%，海川证券涨超11%，微贷网涨超10%，流利说涨超9%，易电行涨超7%，中网载线涨超4%，知乎、云米科技涨超3%，猎豹移动、人人公司涨超2%，微博涨超1%，每日优鲜收盘持平。\n3、欧股周三收盘小幅下跌 泛欧斯托克600指数今年上半年涨超13%\n欧洲股市在2021年上半年强劲上涨，但在第二季度最后一个交易日，即周三（6月30日）小幅下跌，原因投资者是对新冠疫情和通胀上升的持续担忧。\n泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌3.53点，跌幅0.77%，报452.84点。不过，该股指今年迄今仍累计涨超13%；英国央行首席经济学家Andy Haldane表示，对英国央行近1万亿英镑的资产负债表感到“不安”。数据表明（英国）经济正在迅速变化。预计年末英国通胀率可能接近4%（而非3%），给决策者带来1992年英镑崩盘以来的最大挑战。\n4、美国原油库存6连降推动美油收涨0.7％！上半年累计飙升逾51％\n美国WIT期货价格上涨0.7%，报收于每桶73.47美元，第二季度累涨24.2%，上半年累涨逾51%；国际布伦特油价上涨0.5%，报收于每桶74.62美元，第二季度累涨18.2%，上半年累涨45%。\n5、金价收涨0.5％，但6月累计大跌逾7％！创8年以来最大单月跌幅\n黄金期货价格上涨0.5%，报收于每盎司1771.60美元，但6月累跌逾7%，创8年以来最大单月跌幅，因美元汇率本月累涨2%以上。\n国际宏观\n1、美联储卡普兰称市场知道减码即将到来，只是何时的问题\n达拉斯联邦储备银行行长卡普兰（Robert Kaplan）表示，缩减央行资产购买规模应该是“逐步进行的”，他还重申了启动这个进程宜早不宜迟将是审慎之举的观点。\n2、面对高昂估值和减码前景 华尔街警告企业债最好日子或已过去\n高昂估值和美联储逐步缩减刺激措施的前景让越来越多分析师和投资者发出警告：企业债市场最好的日子可能已经过去。\n经济重开、强劲的公司盈利和前所未有的美联储支持，帮助将高等级和高收益债券的风险溢价在上半年推至十多年来最低水平。随着减码讨论的即将到来，以及美国国债收益率逐步回升的前景，华尔街许多人士警告称，信贷投资者是时候采取防御措施了。\n3、亚特兰大联储行长：美国需要一些时间才能达到就业目标\n亚特兰大联储银行行长博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)说，虽然从国内生产总值意义上美国已从疫情中“实际上完全恢复过来”，但就业“需要一些时间才能回去”，现在比疫情前趋势低约900万到1000万个就业岗位。\n4、泡沫破裂：美木材价格6月份暴跌逾40% 创有记录以来最大单月跌幅\n2021年巨大的木材泡沫已经破灭。\n随着供应增加、投机交易活动降温和住宅建筑需求的放缓，木材价格已较春季时大幅回落。木材期货仅在6月份就下跌了42%，创下1978年以来最糟糕的一个月。该建筑商品今年迄今下跌超过13%，为2015年上半年以来首次下跌。\n木材价格在5月7日达到顶峰，创下每千板英尺1670.50美元的历史新高，比2020年4月时的低点高出六倍多。\n5、美联储逆回购需求量在季末升至近1万亿美元 创纪录新高\n市场对美联储用来帮助控制短期利率的一项关键工具的需求规模飙升至近1万亿美元，创纪录新高。\n纽约联储数据显示，90家参与者周三通过隔夜逆回购工具向美联储存放了总计9920亿美元资金，刷新周二创下的8412亿美元前纪录高位。交易对手数量为2016年以来最多，成交量增幅为6月17日以来最大。\n6、瑞银将欧元区2021年经济增长预期从4.3%上调至5.1%\nReinhard Cluse等经济学家在给客户的报告中写道，放宽防疫限制会导致第二季度和第三季度欧元区经济反弹比先前预期的“强一些”；第一季度的经济萎缩没有预期严重，财政支持强于预期；2022年增长预测保持在5.3%。\n瑞银预计经济将在2021年第四季度达到疫情前规模，比此前预期早一个季度。\n7、OPEC+重要会议在即 或将对油价产生关键影响\nOPEC及其盟国正准备召开一场可能对油价至关重要的会议，而关于是否继续增产的讨论仍在继续。\n在周四对8月及以后的产出政策做出决定之前，该组织在初步讨论中出现了一种熟悉的动态。一方面，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦提出增加供应。另一方面，沙特阿拉伯及其海湾的阿拉伯盟友讨论了更谨慎的做法。\n8、美联储理事Waller加入支持优先缩减MBS购买的决策官员行列\n倾向于在开始缩减资产购买时优先减码抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的美联储官员们获得了理事Christopher Waller的响应。\n美联储官员已经开始讨论何时以及如何放缓每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元MBS的计划，这些计划旨在帮助经济从新冠疫情中恢复。Waller表示，由于美国经济强劲复苏，减码时机可能比官员们在2020年底的预期要早，或许会在年底之前开始。\n公司新闻\n1、滴滴赴美上市，筹资44亿美元！华尔街：期待下一个增长篇章\n滴滴IPO是自2014年阿里巴巴集团赴美上市筹集250亿美元资金以来，中国公司在美国规模最大的一次IPO交易。\n滴滴以每股14美元的IPO价格出售了3.168亿股美国存托股票（ADS），高于此前计划的2.88亿股，这将使滴滴在完全稀释的基础上估值约为730亿美元，在非稀释的基础上估值为675亿美元。\n滴滴的股票已经以“DIDI”为代码在纽约证券交易所挂牌交易，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上涨近29%。\n2、瑞幸股价在粉单市场暴涨近30％，2019年营收30亿元、亏损31.6亿\n周三午盘，瑞幸咖啡股价在粉单市场暴涨近30%，此前公布的财报显示，2019年四季度营收10.499亿元，同比增长125.6%；净亏损11.285亿元，相比之下2018年四季度净亏损6.69亿元。\n6月30日，瑞幸咖啡 (中国) 有限公司（以下简称“公司”）补发了经审计的2019年年度财务报告。声明称，根据美国证监会的披露要求，公司将持续积极履行披露义务，尽快发布2020年年度财务报告，并逐渐恢复至正常财报披露进度。声明还显示，截至今年6月底，瑞幸全国门店数已超过5200家，累计消费用户已突破7500万，生椰系列单月销量超1000万杯。\n3、中国嘻哈第一股普普文化登录纳斯达克 首日收盘大幅飙405％\n中国嘻哈第一股厦门普普文化美国IPO首日开盘报12.26美元，此前给出的IPO发行价为每份ADS 6.00美元。随后涨幅进一步扩大，截至收盘上涨405%，报30.3美元。普普文化周三稍早宣布其首次公开发行定价，以每股6美元价格发行6,200,000股A类普通股。公司的A类普通股已获准在纳斯达克全球市场交易，并预计于美国东部时间2021年6月30日在纳斯达克开始公开交易，股票代码为“CPOP”。\n4、叮咚买菜一度暴涨近100% 网友：美国散户把叮咚代码当成了滴滴？\n万万没想到，在美国上市的卖菜股迎来大逆转。在每日优鲜上市破发后，叮咚买菜大幅缩小融资额，上市当天一度破发，所幸收盘的时候微涨，但没想到30日晚间，来了一个惊天逆转，一度暴涨近100%，期间经历了两次熔断！\n6月30日，叮咚买菜上市次日，其涨幅扩大至43%，触发熔断暂停交易。随后，叮咚买菜恢复交易继续扩大涨幅，涨幅达到77.72%，报41.8美元，二度触发熔断，随后继续交易。股价一度暴涨94%，市值一度站上100亿美元！\n5、亚马逊硬气反击：FTC新任主席不应参与对我们的反垄断调查！\n美国联邦贸易委员会新任一把手Lina Khan堪称反垄断斗士，屡次发文称亚马逊违反了反垄断法且应被分拆。亚马逊称这会令针对公司的反垄断调查面临不公审判，希望Khan不要参与调查。分析指出，目前正值亚马逊和FTC的关键时刻。\n电商巨头亚马逊在6月30日周三向美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）提交了一份长达25页的动议，申请让FTC新任民主党主席Lina Khan回避该监管机构对亚马逊的反垄断调查。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QMmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158951402,"gmtCreate":1625125441906,"gmtModify":1703736621412,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158951402","repostId":"1154941861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154941861","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625103381,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154941861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 09:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stock investment strategy in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154941861","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期","content":"<p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; Judging from the performance of the interim report, the cycle is better; From the perspective of valuation, big finance has new attraction.<b>SUMMARY</b></p><p><b>Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER, and US stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p>Although Taper's voice is endless, it is not easy to land the boots: on the one hand, the short-term GDP, CPI, consumption, housing prices and other data in the United States are constantly rising; on the other hand, the actual hourly wage has dropped, the job recovery has been slow, and residents' wealth The proportion of stocks is too high, and the Biden administration's tax increase may have a negative impact on corporate investment and recruitment, all of which need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we do not think that Taper can be achieved overnight, and it is preliminarily judged that there will be a clearer signal in Q1 of 2021 and 2022; U.S. bond yields rose too fast at the beginning of the year, fully absorbing the impact of inflation. Although we judge that yields are still fluctuating upward, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for U.S. stocks to turn. Based on the profit in 2022, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of U.S. stock bull market), S&P is still running within the valuation framework of the past ten years and has not been significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p>The upward trend of medium-and long-term corporate loans proves that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily judge that output (industrial added value year-on-year) and M1 year-on-year will both start to rebound in June and July.</p><p>Starting from June, CPI and PPI will converge, which means that the profitability of the manufacturing industry will improve. With the gradual upward trend of CPI, market confidence will continue to be improved.</p><p>Taking the past ten years as a reference, the current valuation of A-shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indexes (2022) is only the average level. Therefore, we believe that during the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through this round of new highs, with a target of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; Judging from the performance of the interim report, the cycle is better; From the perspective of valuation, big finance has new attraction.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock investment advice: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p>We adjust the target range of 31,000-32,000 points for the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs;</p><p>We believe that while the market rises in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by a rotation situation. The sectors with better semi-annual reports or other fundamentals driven are mainly textiles and clothing, medicine, metals, and energy. Secondly, the interim reports of Hang Seng Technology and Big Finance are expected to meet expectations and their stock prices are oversold, and there will also be obvious valuation repairs.</p><p>After the second quarterly report or Q4, the valuation of some sectors is too high, coupled with the uncertainty of taper and funds before the end of the year, which makes it impossible for risk appetite to continue to increase. At this time, we should pay attention to resource stocks whose prices may continue to rise, banks with low valuations Stocks, gambling stocks with lagging recovery expectations, telecom operators and Hong Kong local stocks with less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of recurrent epidemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technological war.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Global: It is too early to discuss TAPER, and US stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p><b>1. The vaccination rate in some countries will exceed 70% by the end of the year</b></p><p>The global new epidemic situation has recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 cases per day, a significant decrease from the beginning of the year. Among them, the number of new cases in major developed countries has dropped significantly from the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Entering May and June, according to data from our world in data, the vaccination rate (one dose) in some countries has accelerated significantly. According to the current rate, before winter, the vaccination rate in most countries with conditions can exceed 70%., that is, recognized by WHO<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Level of vaccination rate of immune effects. The speed of vaccination in China is even more alarming. At present, it has exceeded 1 billion doses, with 20 million vaccinations per day. It is expected that the vaccination rate will reach more than 70% before the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised up global GDP growth to 5.6%</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank expected global GDP growth to be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised up global GDP growth to 5.6%, the strongest recovery from recession in 80 years, mainly driven by economic growth of 6.8% and 8.5% in the United States and China, respectively. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its forecast at the beginning of the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two have equal expectations for China's economic growth. The World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate to be 8.5% in 2021, and the IMF expects 8.4%; The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, and the IMF expects 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States narrows</b></p><p>During the epidemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the U.S. GDP declined, which narrowed the GDP gap between China and the United States. If the gap is expressed in terms of (U.S.-China)/U.S., in 2020, the GDP gap between China and the United States will be 30%. The IMF estimates that regardless of the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, the GDP gap between China and the United States will shrink to 16% by 2026, compared with 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the background of narrowing the GDP gap between the two countries, since Biden took office as President of the United States, the U.S. government has frequently released various pressures on China. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021. CNN stated that the bill is intended to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science, and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the \"2021 White Paper on American Companies in China\" released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in June shows that the Chinese market is still highly attractive to American companies. More than half (52%) of American enterprises in China mentioned that the biggest business opportunity in China is \"the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of the increasingly affluent middle class\". More than two-thirds of American enterprises regard China as a priority market, and 85% of American enterprises do not intend to move their manufacturing or purchasing processes outside China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61% of American companies believe that China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. American companies' sense of gain in China has been further enhanced. For example, in the financial field, American companies have obtained the license to conduct all-round business in China; In the fields of food and agriculture, China has amended its regulations to allow more American products to enter China, etc.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion stage</b></p><p><b>1) Enlightenment from the U.S. economic framework: the balance between inflation and stagflation</b></p><p>In the economic framework of the United States, interest rate policy or personal income is transmitted to consumer expenditure, which takes 2 or 3 quarters. Then the increase in consumption will bring about an increase in the prosperity of industrial production and services, as well as an increase in corporate profits. During this period, it takes 1 or 2 quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then companies expect the future prosperity to rise, begin to increase capital expenditures, and at the same time actively recruit workers (this is 2-4 quarters later), thereby pushing up inflation. At this time, the Federal Reserve intervened in inflation to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, if the intervention is too late, inflation may grow; But if you intervene too early, you will douse the newly recovered economy in the cradle. How to judge this rhythm has always been a \"big problem\". On the left is inflation and on the right is deflation. The government and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>You must walk carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in current U.S. economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the prosperity of U.S. consumption and production is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditures are on the rise (also attributable to last year's low base), while the consumer confidence index has returned to its best level since the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The manufacturing PMI fluctuated upward, and the PMI of the service industry in May exceeded the highest level before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Existing home sales have reached a ten-year high year-on-year, and house prices have accelerated. Many media reports in the United States have seen the phenomenon of \"hard to find a house\" and \"increasing the price of buying a house\" everywhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the market's expectations for U.S. macroeconomic data have been continuously revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, behind the glamorous data, there are also many hidden worries:</p><p><b>One is the decline in actual hourly wages.</b>As the actual hourly wage determines the real purchasing power of consumers, in this economic recovery, the CPI took the lead in strengthening due to the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the upward trend of commodity prices caused by the excessive issuance of US dollars, which made the nominal hourly wage rise and the actual hourly wage fall. Historically, the actual hourly wage has been a relatively reliable leading indicator of American residents' consumption (of course, this is mainly on the premise that the employment situation is relatively stable), and the current trend is not clear.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, employment recovery still needs to be observed.</b>According to the U.S. Department of Labor, COVID-19 pandemic has cost 22 million people in the United States their jobs. So far, it has only recovered to 67% of the pre-pandemic level, and there is still an 8 million job gap. Just in April, the new non-farm employment in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations, and in May it only met the low expectations. Some analysts believe that because of the money-throwing subsidies, the income of low-income groups who go to work is equal to that of not going to work, which makes some enterprises unable to find employees and eventually closes down again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional benefit plans during the epidemic before they officially expire on September 6. Some states will stop the payment of additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They said that the additional unemployment benefits are causing unemployed workers to prefer to stay at home rather than look for jobs. This subsidy makes it difficult for enterprises to recruit workers to fill urgently needed vacancies. Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said: \"The disappointing employment report clearly shows that paying wages to people who don't work is dampening what should be a stronger job market.\" The impact of stopping additional federal unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is generally positive, but the effect needs to be tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is about the expectation of tax increases by the Biden administration.</b>Although we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and in order to ensure the mid-term elections, the Democratic Party is unlikely to make too many achievements on this issue before the 2022 mid-term elections. However, the expectation of tax increase will affect the human resource planning of enterprises to a certain extent. Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said there is a disagreement with the government on the need to raise business taxes: \"The proposed tax increase plan will greatly harm the interests of American businesses and American workers. Now is certainly not the time to set up new obstacles to economic recovery. The government is right to advocate infrastructure, and we want to do it with the government, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure projects.\" The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it supports infrastructure investment, but prefers to provide funding mainly through infrastructure usage fees. McGinty, a spokesman for the American Retail Federation, said that in a report submitted to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure projects by increasing corporate taxes. In addition, McGinty, spokesman of the American Association of Retail Leaders, also stated that the association's position against increasing taxes on enterprises has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourth, the U.S. stock market accounts for too high a proportion of residents' assets, and the decline of the stock market will seriously hit residents' consumption enthusiasm.</b>There are two types of wealth related to stock assets in the United States, one is direct investment, and the other is through pension plans (eventually entering the stock market and bond market), which account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (at the highest level in history). Compared with the largest category of Chinese residents' wealth, real estate accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market are mutually causal: the stock market falls → residents' wealth shrinks → consumption becomes more conservative → corporate profits fall → the stock market falls. At present, the total market value of U.S. stocks is about 45 trillion U.S. dollars, which is about 202% of the expected U.S. GDP in 2021 (22.2 trillion U.S. dollars). According to Rastved's estimate in \"The Unescapable Economic Cycle\", the decline of the stock market will have an impact coefficient of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the U.S. stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle-level adjustment), the negative effect of a single stock market decline on GDP can reach 202% * 20% * 4% =-1.6%. The above is not considered. Extensive effects such as shrinking capital expenditure, inventory impairment, and real estate decline. Generally speaking, in a range of stock market decline (such as 1/3 to half), and the real estate market is also affected (such as 1/5 to 1/3), the comprehensive impact on GDP of that year is about-15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the FOMC press conference in April that the Fed \"<b>Will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the economy until the recovery is completed</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Federal Reserve to announce the reduction of QE at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole in August. The latest Reuters survey also shows that the Federal Reserve may announce a strategy to cut its large-scale bond purchase program in August or September, but it is not expected to start cutting monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>And we still repeat this view: as far as the current American economy is concerned, once TAPER is implemented, the moderate recovery will probably end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3) and employment data (June, July, and August), especially the impact on employment in July and August after some state governments cancelled bailouts.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of U.S. bonds shows that market expectations for inflation have been digested</b></p><p>Although the U.S. CPI and core CPI both hit new highs in May, inflation expectations (10-year U.S. bond yield-10-year TIPS yield) fell, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield oscillated and flattened, all of which show that inflation expectations have been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue to track the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively calculated the key positions where this round of rise in U.S. bond yields will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in the historical interest rate hike cycle (the target rate of federal funds remains unchanged in this round, which is slightly different from history, but the upward trend of market interest rates is the same) on the peak of the stock market. We calculated the result: when the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose to the 1.9-2.0% level, the U.S. bull market came to an end.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend of commodities will continue</b></p><p>We are pleased to review that in the annual strategy report released in 2019 before the launch of this round of commodities, we mentioned: \"The global mid-cycle-real estate cycle and commodity cycle are both in the expansion stage, and the short-cycle-Kitchen The cycle has also hit a low point and turned to expansion. The combined resonance of the mid-cycle and the short-cycle will push up the price of cyclical assets.\" So far, our judgment that the global economy is in the expansion stage remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the average expansion time of the commodity cycle is 24-26 months, this round of commodity upward trend will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between the commodity index and the S&P 500. Similar to A-shares, the S&P 500 is about 0-3 months ahead of the CRB index (just like the Shanghai Composite Index leads the PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily calculate that U.S. stocks will rise to around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>U.S. stocks are still operating in the valuation framework of the past decade</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net income has also been revised upward. At present, the market expects the growth rate of S&P 500 EPS in 2021-2022 to be 40% and 9% respectively; The ROE was 19.7% and 19.4% respectively; The EPS was 194,211 respectively (while when we wrote the strategy report at the end of last year, the EPS was only 170,197, with an increase of 14% and 7% respectively).</p><p>We have introduced that the United States currently maintains a lower U.S. bond yield than before the epidemic. According to the PE upper limit of the S&P 500 from 2008 to 2019, it is 21.4-21.5 times PE (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 20-year epidemic), If you give the S&P 500 a target price, you can get:</p><p>SPX target price 2021 = 194 * 21.4 = 4151 points;</p><p>If you take into account the valuation switch to 2022, you can get:</p><p>SPX target price 2022 = 211 * 21.4 = 4515 points;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that this year and next, before the S&P 500 fluctuates upward to 4,500 points, U.S. stocks are still running in the valuation channel of the past ten years without being significantly overvalued. Of course, when talking about overvaluation, we must discuss U.S. bond yields, TAPER and QE, and the position of the economic cycle. We have explained these issues earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. A shares: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p><b>1. The rise in medium and long-term corporate loans proves that the economy is still expanding</b></p><p>M2 in May stopped declining year-on-year, and began to show the characteristics of stabilizing at the bottom. Medium and long-term loans still maintain a very steady growth, indicating the strong demand for manufacturing credit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Dismantling social financing subjects, local government special bonds, corporate bonds, and trust loans have declined more obviously recently. The downward background of corporate bonds is that this year, the central government requested to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, and multiple departments jointly took action to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debts; Local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan this year compared with last year. Referring to the recent new local government debt limit issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2021 of 4,267.6 billion yuan (including a general debt limit of 800 billion yuan and a special debt limit of 3,467.6 billion yuan), it is lower than the previous The budget of 4,470 billion yuan approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (including 3,750 billion yuan in special debt); The decline of trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still looking for transformation and innovation. From this point of view, the characteristics of this year's social financing are: the financing demand of the government and local financing platforms has slowed down, the financing of real estate/trust has also been suppressed, and the demand for loans in the manufacturing industry is strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that M1 year-on-year and industrial added value year-on-year have either touched or approached the low point of the whole year and will rise with the upward economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fiscal deposits are not counted in M2 (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so the decline in social financing is more than that in M2. We think it is temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic funds are relatively loose, MLF has not risen since the epidemic last year, wealth management yields continue to decline, and credit spreads have declined (AA +, AAA is more obvious than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting from June, the gap between CPI and PPI will converge</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, the upward pressure on PPI was relatively high. During the tracking process in the past few months, we also felt that the upward trend of PPI repeatedly exceeded market expectations. May last year was the lowest point of PPI throughout the year, so morphologically, since June, PPI has undoubtedly started to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the CPI has been dragged down to some extent by the downward trend of pig prices this year. However, observing by subjects, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment, housing, food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to improve significantly month-on-month. We estimate that CPI will remain resilient and rise steadily in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, the downward trend of PPI represents the easing of inflationary pressure, which is conducive to the restoration of profits in the manufacturing industry. But this does not mean the disappearance of inflationary pressures. Because in a commodity cycle, with the improvement of demand, the production capacity on the supply side cannot be significantly expanded in a short cycle. Moreover, the current inventory of cyclical products is generally not high. With the depletion of inventory, there is still room for further upward movement in commodity prices..</p><p><b>3. The valuation of A-shares is not high, locking in the sector where the mid-term report is expected to be revised upward</b></p><p><b>1) On the whole, the current valuation of A shares is not high</b></p><p>Let's take the valuation level of the past ten years as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A shares.</p><p>The current valuation of Wind Quan A is 20.3 times. If valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will fall back to the average with the growth of performance. The current valuation of the CSI 300 is 14.5 times. If valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will also fall back to the average level along with the growth of performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE in 2022 will be lower than the average; The current valuation level of the GEM is slightly higher by 59.0 times, but it is also below +1 standard deviation. Since the growth rate of the GEM is higher, its corresponding PE in 2022 is lower than the average when considering the valuation switching scenario.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indexes, and the valuation is only-1 standard deviation from the average. If the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account, it is lower than-1 standard deviation; The valuation level of the SSE 50 is at a relatively high level. Considering the growth in 2022, the valuation level is slightly higher than the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, looking at A-shares in a ten-year cycle, the current valuation level is not high. Once the valuation switch is taken into account in the second half of the year, the current valuation is only the historical average level. If we measure the upside of A-shares, we calculate it based on the customary Shanghai Composite Index's highest level of 16-16.2 times PE at the beginning of the year. Taking into account factors including the valuation switch in 2022, the upside target range is estimated to be about 4200-4300 points. The above consideration is based on the scenario that the expansion of the economic cycle has not yet ended, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from performance improvement rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based indexes, the valuation of CSI 500 is more attractive than that of CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) From the perspective of growth, the performance growth rate of science and technology innovation and cycle this year is more obvious</b></p><p>From the observation of performance growth rate, the growth rate of science and technology innovation this year ranks first in the broad-based index, with a growth rate of 70% in 21 years compared with 20 years, followed by small-cap companies, Guozheng 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, and GEM 50. Combined with the current valuation level and rebound situation, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and CSI 500 are more cost-effective. In terms of style, what cannot be ignored this year is the profit growth rate of cyclical industries, with a year-on-year growth of 82%, which is better than growth (74%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From an industry perspective, in addition to transportation, media, consumer services, and retail, which had a low base last year, the industries with faster growth this year are among the top non-ferrous metals and black metals. In addition, computers, basic chemicals, electronics, and automobiles also rank among the top.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustment, cyclical industries are more dominant</b></p><p>After the annual report (April 30th), Kechuang 50 and CSI 500 are expected to have the largest upward revision among all broad-based indexes, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also revised up by 1%, ranking third. GEM, CSI 1000, and National Securities 2000 ranked the bottom three respectively. Compared with styles, the performance of cyclical industries has the largest upward trend, while the growth has the largest downward revision. This is slightly contradictory to our observation in the previous table, that is, although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, since the annual report, the performance has been revised downward, indicating that the current upward trend in growth stocks is also differentiated rather than universal, while the decline in cyclical industries is temporary, and the second quarterly report is approaching. We believe that the opportunities in cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual reports, the performance adjustment rankings are compared by industries as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals are at the top, machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal, and light industry manufacturing are also raised to a certain extent, while the bottom rankings are Commerce and retail, media, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communications, and computers.</p><p>In this sorting, we believe that it is still necessary to discuss the prices of commodities. For example, if the prices of basic metals, coal, and crude oil go up, it will bring profit pressure to industries sensitive to raw materials such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals, and home appliances in the midstream. If the prices in the upstream of the cycle are stable or downward, the profit growth rate of the above industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is: this round of economic cycle expansion is not over yet, and the inducement for upward commodity prices: the core variable of relatively limited capacity expansion for 7-10 consecutive years has not changed. Assuming that downstream output continues to rise, the upward pressure of upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>In terms of the profit forecast of the sector, we tend to think that the mid-term performance of non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal in the upstream of the cycle is more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From a valuation perspective, the valuation repair potential of Big Finance should not be ignored</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI rises and the market yield rises, it is expected that the financial industry will be affected by the increase in interest rate spreads and its profits will improve. Therefore, the undervalued big finance is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. We put the primary industry in the PE/PB quantile matrix to observe. The current PB valuation of bank stocks is at the lowest level in history, and we expect that the ROE of the banking industry in Q2 this year will have a relatively obvious year-on-year increase (compared with the expected increase since Q2 last year). The insurance industry's premium income is poor this year, but since the sector has not performed in the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully digested in the stock price, and there is room for valuation repair in the second half of the year. Brokerages have experienced a year of weak shocks since July last year, and their current valuations are also very low (together with insurance, which is below 10% of the historical quantile). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration system and the fact that the asset quality of securities firms is better than that of insurance and banks, we believe that this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth, expectation adjustment, and valuation three aspects,<b>We are optimistic about science and technology innovation board, upstream cycle, and big finance as the preferred recommendations in the second half of the year. At the same time, according to the previous calculation, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to rise to a height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>3. Hong Kong stocks: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p><b>1. The Hang Seng Index is expected to break through new highs in this round in the second half of 2021</b></p><p>The market expects that the EPS growth rate of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be 11% in 2021 and-2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as A-shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% and 12%.. The goal of some large Internet companies this year is still to pursue revenue growth rather than profit. This is part of the reason. In addition, the real estate and financial parts of the Hang Seng Index account for a relatively high proportion, which has also dragged down profit growth to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below shows the PB fluctuation range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation historically. We use this to calculate the target level of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In previous reports, we have explained that since the stability of net assets is better from the historical volatility observation (compared with EPS and Dividend), we usually consider PB valuation when predicting the low or high point of the Hang Seng Index or Dividend ratio. We continue to use the increase in PB during each round of Kitchen cycle expansion, and take the median to calculate the upper limit of PB of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the PB expansion rates of the Hang Seng Index in each Kitchen cycle have been 49%, 85%, 74%, 29%, and 63% respectively, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We get that the upper PB limit of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year is 1.39 times.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit = 0.87 * (1 +60%) = 1.39</p><p>According to analysts' expectations for net assets in 2021-2022 of 21,784 points and 23,387 points, the target level of the Hang Seng Index is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021) * 1.39 = 30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (given valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) * 1.39 = 32,610 pips.</p><p><b>Therefore, we judge that the target price of the Hang Seng Index will run to around 31,000-32,000 points in the second half of the year, which has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>2. Review of trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>We summarized five major directions in the \"Summary of Hong Kong Stocks in 2020\" at the beginning of the year: \"Looking forward to 2021, the direction of finding excess returns may be: 1. The new economy is still the main battlefield, especially the investment targets under the interference of anti-monopoly policies and US policies. There will be opportunities for\" panic-wrong killing-new highs \"; 2. Sub-new shares will bring more investment clues; 3. The upward trend of risk appetite will help the valuation of large and small market values converge; 4. With the recovery of the epidemic, the pro-cyclical sector will narrow the performance difference between the sectors; 5. The implementation of the boots of the U.S. investment ban will bring opportunities to repair the valuation of listed companies. \"</p><p><b>Review In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks experienced three stages: rising, falling and rebounding.</b></p><p>In the first stage, before the Spring Festival, technology stocks and biotechnology stocks took the lead. In the highest period, the Hang Seng Technology Index reached an increase of 29%;</p><p>The second stage is from after the Spring Festival to the beginning of May. Under the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and the influence of Internet anti-monopoly, the Hang Seng Technology Index has a sharp pullback/retracement, with the yield falling from 29% to-11%, and the Hang Seng Index falling below 28,000 points;</p><p>The third stage is from late May to June. With the stabilization of U.S. bond yields and the market continuing to absorb many influences of antitrust, major indexes began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by Hong Kong local stocks (9%), followed by Hong Kong Stock Connect (7%), and the State Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Technology underperformed the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks are a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology are the two major tracks that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technology saw a large increase, coupled with the impact of anti-monopoly, which brought some investors to take profits, while Hang Seng Biotechnology took over the baton and performed well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will still be the main battlefield, and Hang Seng Technology and Biotechnology will perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">Huaxia Hang Seng Technology</a>ETFs, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Bosera Hang Seng Technology ETF, and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been released. Mainland investors can purchase the Hang Seng Technology Index through these ETFs, which solves the problem of Hong Kong stocks. Similar ones not covered<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Baidu, JD.com, Bilibili and other investment restrictions on a large number of stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) From the perspective of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if it outperforms the Hang Seng Index, in terms of style, positions are required to be concentrated on Hang Seng small-cap stocks, small-and medium-cap stocks, and mid-cap stocks, rather than large-cap stocks and medium-and large-cap stocks. At present, the valuations of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks are still converging. We have calculated according to historical laws that when the PB difference between the two turns positive, it is the end point of valuation revision (and often the end point of a bull market). It also shows that in the current market, opportunities far outweigh risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From an industry perspective, in addition to the medical sector, the upstream of this year's cycle is shining brilliantly. Among them, the performance of the energy industry ranked first, the raw material industry ranked third, and the comprehensive industry and Hang Seng Industry also performed well. The lower-ranked industries are consumer staples, information technology, and finance. We are still very optimistic about resource products. Since the prices of bulk commodities have risen significantly compared with last year, for example, crude oil prices have risen to a new high since the epidemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, copper prices have risen by 93% year-on-year, and aluminum prices have risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the second quarterly reports of these sectors will have good quarterly performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to the industry performance statistics of 524 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal has increased astonishingly, followed by steel, basic chemicals, medicine, textiles and clothing, media, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals. The lowest-ranked sectors are mainly power equipment, building materials, and catering. Tourism, national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, comprehensive, food and beverage and other industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the banned investment list, the income in the first half of the year is gratifying. At the beginning of the year, we judged that the investment ban company would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average increase of companies on the banned investment list is 35%, with a median of 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecom operators and oil companies, still have low valuations, and there is still considerable room for upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: cycle dominance, catering/computer downward adjustment</b></p><p>Profit expectations: Compared before and after the annual report, the 2021 net profit expectations of several industries such as steel, military industry, petroleum and petrochemicals, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, and non-bank finance have been revised upward, while catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, The performance of non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communications, and media sectors has been revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue expectations: Compared with before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue expectations of several industries such as national defense and military industry, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components, and transportation are revised upward; The revenue expectations of catering, tourism, computer, media and other industries have been revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation comparison: textile and clothing hit a new high, and the real estate industry chain hit a new low</b></p><p>Compared with the data of the last five years, the current valuation quantile of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median value). Among them, textile and clothing, steel, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors are higher, while real estate, construction, building materials, light industries such as industrial manufacturing, non-bank finance, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, and transportation are significantly lower than the average level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Capital inflows/outflows in recent months: some midstreams are still flowing in, indicating that the market is still in a bull market</p><p>Judging from the recent capital inflow, many sectors in the middle reaches have further increased their positions, while the big finance and upstream of the cycle are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure shows that the economic recovery is still on the way rather than coming to an end. At the end of the bull market, the situation should be the opposite: that is, the midstream outflow, while the big finance and upstream funds of the cycle accelerate the inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Investment advice</b></p><p>1. Overall, when the CPI goes up, the low valuation will have a certain degree of valuation repair. Such as big finance, real estate, public utilities, and telecom operators. Compared with these industries, we think big finance is better. The reason is that a) banks and securities firms have made relatively large provisions in 2020, and the year-on-year improvement in performance this year is even more obvious; b) they are undervalued; c) Widening interest rate spreads have a boost to their earnings expectations; The cost of land acquisition in the real estate industry this year is relatively high, which is manifested in a high degree of land premium, and the cost of construction and installation is also relatively high when commodities are at a high level. Therefore, we believe that although the valuation of real estate companies is low at present, their attractiveness is slightly less than that of companies in the industrial chain. The development of the construction industry is subject to the scale of government investment. At present, their future growth rate will further slow down;</p><p>2. As far as the second quarterly report is concerned, cyclical industries, especially companies upstream of the cycle, are more likely to exceed expectations. Petroleum and petrochemical, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors will perform better with high commodity prices (or even further upward). During this period, the midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, household appliances, etc. may show a situation of rising first and then falling. The reason is that the rising commodity prices in the late stage of economic expansion leads to the narrowing of their profits, and the downstream transmission of prices is not as easy as in the early and middle stages of economic expansion;</p><p>3. In this round of economic cycle, due to the comprehensive impact of the epidemic and economic transformation (dual cycle), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology, and brand clothing, especially those companies that uniquely exist in Hong Kong stocks, will show good investment value in the past and in the future. At present, Hang Seng Technology needs to rebound. We believe that the pressure of anti-monopoly has been fully digested. In the stock price in the first half of the year, the current valuation of biotechnology/medical devices/textiles and clothing is not low, but there are short-term catalytic factors, policy or performance. In terms of performance, we think their trend is similar to the middle reaches. Q3 will still perform well, while Q4 will become less attractive due to high valuation.</p><p>To sum up, we believe that big finance, upstream cycle, and Hang Seng Technology are the three major directions that we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, textiles and clothing will also report trend opportunities before and after the semi-annual report. Due to the recurrence of the epidemic, it will take time for the gaming sector to recover, and it is expected that there will be more obvious opportunities in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of recurrent epidemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technological war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observation\", author: Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock investment strategy in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock investment strategy in the second half of the year! Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 09:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; Judging from the performance of the interim report, the cycle is better; From the perspective of valuation, big finance has new attraction.<b>SUMMARY</b></p><p><b>Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER, and US stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p>Although Taper's voice is endless, it is not easy to land the boots: on the one hand, the short-term GDP, CPI, consumption, housing prices and other data in the United States are constantly rising; on the other hand, the actual hourly wage has dropped, the job recovery has been slow, and residents' wealth The proportion of stocks is too high, and the Biden administration's tax increase may have a negative impact on corporate investment and recruitment, all of which need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we do not think that Taper can be achieved overnight, and it is preliminarily judged that there will be a clearer signal in Q1 of 2021 and 2022; U.S. bond yields rose too fast at the beginning of the year, fully absorbing the impact of inflation. Although we judge that yields are still fluctuating upward, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for U.S. stocks to turn. Based on the profit in 2022, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of U.S. stock bull market), S&P is still running within the valuation framework of the past ten years and has not been significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p>The upward trend of medium-and long-term corporate loans proves that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily judge that output (industrial added value year-on-year) and M1 year-on-year will both start to rebound in June and July.</p><p>Starting from June, CPI and PPI will converge, which means that the profitability of the manufacturing industry will improve. With the gradual upward trend of CPI, market confidence will continue to be improved.</p><p>Taking the past ten years as a reference, the current valuation of A-shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indexes (2022) is only the average level. Therefore, we believe that during the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through this round of new highs, with a target of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>From the perspective of growth, science and technology innovation and cycle dominate; Judging from the performance of the interim report, the cycle is better; From the perspective of valuation, big finance has new attraction.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock investment advice: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p>We adjust the target range of 31,000-32,000 points for the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge this round of new highs;</p><p>We believe that while the market rises in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by a rotation situation. The sectors with better semi-annual reports or other fundamentals driven are mainly textiles and clothing, medicine, metals, and energy. Secondly, the interim reports of Hang Seng Technology and Big Finance are expected to meet expectations and their stock prices are oversold, and there will also be obvious valuation repairs.</p><p>After the second quarterly report or Q4, the valuation of some sectors is too high, coupled with the uncertainty of taper and funds before the end of the year, which makes it impossible for risk appetite to continue to increase. At this time, we should pay attention to resource stocks whose prices may continue to rise, banks with low valuations Stocks, gambling stocks with lagging recovery expectations, telecom operators and Hong Kong local stocks with less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of recurrent epidemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technological war.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Global: It is too early to discuss TAPER, and US stocks are still in a slow bull</b></p><p><b>1. The vaccination rate in some countries will exceed 70% by the end of the year</b></p><p>The global new epidemic situation has recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 cases per day, a significant decrease from the beginning of the year. Among them, the number of new cases in major developed countries has dropped significantly from the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Entering May and June, according to data from our world in data, the vaccination rate (one dose) in some countries has accelerated significantly. According to the current rate, before winter, the vaccination rate in most countries with conditions can exceed 70%., that is, recognized by WHO<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Level of vaccination rate of immune effects. The speed of vaccination in China is even more alarming. At present, it has exceeded 1 billion doses, with 20 million vaccinations per day. It is expected that the vaccination rate will reach more than 70% before the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised up global GDP growth to 5.6%</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank expected global GDP growth to be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised up global GDP growth to 5.6%, the strongest recovery from recession in 80 years, mainly driven by economic growth of 6.8% and 8.5% in the United States and China, respectively. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its forecast at the beginning of the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two have equal expectations for China's economic growth. The World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate to be 8.5% in 2021, and the IMF expects 8.4%; The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, and the IMF expects 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States narrows</b></p><p>During the epidemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the U.S. GDP declined, which narrowed the GDP gap between China and the United States. If the gap is expressed in terms of (U.S.-China)/U.S., in 2020, the GDP gap between China and the United States will be 30%. The IMF estimates that regardless of the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, the GDP gap between China and the United States will shrink to 16% by 2026, compared with 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the background of narrowing the GDP gap between the two countries, since Biden took office as President of the United States, the U.S. government has frequently released various pressures on China. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021. CNN stated that the bill is intended to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science, and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the \"2021 White Paper on American Companies in China\" released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in June shows that the Chinese market is still highly attractive to American companies. More than half (52%) of American enterprises in China mentioned that the biggest business opportunity in China is \"the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of the increasingly affluent middle class\". More than two-thirds of American enterprises regard China as a priority market, and 85% of American enterprises do not intend to move their manufacturing or purchasing processes outside China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61% of American companies believe that China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. American companies' sense of gain in China has been further enhanced. For example, in the financial field, American companies have obtained the license to conduct all-round business in China; In the fields of food and agriculture, China has amended its regulations to allow more American products to enter China, etc.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion stage</b></p><p><b>1) Enlightenment from the U.S. economic framework: the balance between inflation and stagflation</b></p><p>In the economic framework of the United States, interest rate policy or personal income is transmitted to consumer expenditure, which takes 2 or 3 quarters. Then the increase in consumption will bring about an increase in the prosperity of industrial production and services, as well as an increase in corporate profits. During this period, it takes 1 or 2 quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then companies expect the future prosperity to rise, begin to increase capital expenditures, and at the same time actively recruit workers (this is 2-4 quarters later), thereby pushing up inflation. At this time, the Federal Reserve intervened in inflation to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, if the intervention is too late, inflation may grow; But if you intervene too early, you will douse the newly recovered economy in the cradle. How to judge this rhythm has always been a \"big problem\". On the left is inflation and on the right is deflation. The government and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>You must walk carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in current U.S. economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the prosperity of U.S. consumption and production is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditures are on the rise (also attributable to last year's low base), while the consumer confidence index has returned to its best level since the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The manufacturing PMI fluctuated upward, and the PMI of the service industry in May exceeded the highest level before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Existing home sales have reached a ten-year high year-on-year, and house prices have accelerated. Many media reports in the United States have seen the phenomenon of \"hard to find a house\" and \"increasing the price of buying a house\" everywhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the market's expectations for U.S. macroeconomic data have been continuously revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, behind the glamorous data, there are also many hidden worries:</p><p><b>One is the decline in actual hourly wages.</b>As the actual hourly wage determines the real purchasing power of consumers, in this economic recovery, the CPI took the lead in strengthening due to the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the upward trend of commodity prices caused by the excessive issuance of US dollars, which made the nominal hourly wage rise and the actual hourly wage fall. Historically, the actual hourly wage has been a relatively reliable leading indicator of American residents' consumption (of course, this is mainly on the premise that the employment situation is relatively stable), and the current trend is not clear.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, employment recovery still needs to be observed.</b>According to the U.S. Department of Labor, COVID-19 pandemic has cost 22 million people in the United States their jobs. So far, it has only recovered to 67% of the pre-pandemic level, and there is still an 8 million job gap. Just in April, the new non-farm employment in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations, and in May it only met the low expectations. Some analysts believe that because of the money-throwing subsidies, the income of low-income groups who go to work is equal to that of not going to work, which makes some enterprises unable to find employees and eventually closes down again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional benefit plans during the epidemic before they officially expire on September 6. Some states will stop the payment of additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They said that the additional unemployment benefits are causing unemployed workers to prefer to stay at home rather than look for jobs. This subsidy makes it difficult for enterprises to recruit workers to fill urgently needed vacancies. Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said: \"The disappointing employment report clearly shows that paying wages to people who don't work is dampening what should be a stronger job market.\" The impact of stopping additional federal unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is generally positive, but the effect needs to be tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is about the expectation of tax increases by the Biden administration.</b>Although we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and in order to ensure the mid-term elections, the Democratic Party is unlikely to make too many achievements on this issue before the 2022 mid-term elections. However, the expectation of tax increase will affect the human resource planning of enterprises to a certain extent. Clark, president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said there is a disagreement with the government on the need to raise business taxes: \"The proposed tax increase plan will greatly harm the interests of American businesses and American workers. Now is certainly not the time to set up new obstacles to economic recovery. The government is right to advocate infrastructure, and we want to do it with the government, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure projects.\" The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it supports infrastructure investment, but prefers to provide funding mainly through infrastructure usage fees. McGinty, a spokesman for the American Retail Federation, said that in a report submitted to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure projects by increasing corporate taxes. In addition, McGinty, spokesman of the American Association of Retail Leaders, also stated that the association's position against increasing taxes on enterprises has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourth, the U.S. stock market accounts for too high a proportion of residents' assets, and the decline of the stock market will seriously hit residents' consumption enthusiasm.</b>There are two types of wealth related to stock assets in the United States, one is direct investment, and the other is through pension plans (eventually entering the stock market and bond market), which account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (at the highest level in history). Compared with the largest category of Chinese residents' wealth, real estate accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market are mutually causal: the stock market falls → residents' wealth shrinks → consumption becomes more conservative → corporate profits fall → the stock market falls. At present, the total market value of U.S. stocks is about 45 trillion U.S. dollars, which is about 202% of the expected U.S. GDP in 2021 (22.2 trillion U.S. dollars). According to Rastved's estimate in \"The Unescapable Economic Cycle\", the decline of the stock market will have an impact coefficient of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the U.S. stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle-level adjustment), the negative effect of a single stock market decline on GDP can reach 202% * 20% * 4% =-1.6%. The above is not considered. Extensive effects such as shrinking capital expenditure, inventory impairment, and real estate decline. Generally speaking, in a range of stock market decline (such as 1/3 to half), and the real estate market is also affected (such as 1/5 to 1/3), the comprehensive impact on GDP of that year is about-15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the FOMC press conference in April that the Fed \"<b>Will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the economy until the recovery is completed</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Federal Reserve to announce the reduction of QE at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole in August. The latest Reuters survey also shows that the Federal Reserve may announce a strategy to cut its large-scale bond purchase program in August or September, but it is not expected to start cutting monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>And we still repeat this view: as far as the current American economy is concerned, once TAPER is implemented, the moderate recovery will probably end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3) and employment data (June, July, and August), especially the impact on employment in July and August after some state governments cancelled bailouts.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of U.S. bonds shows that market expectations for inflation have been digested</b></p><p>Although the U.S. CPI and core CPI both hit new highs in May, inflation expectations (10-year U.S. bond yield-10-year TIPS yield) fell, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield oscillated and flattened, all of which show that inflation expectations have been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue to track the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively calculated the key positions where this round of rise in U.S. bond yields will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in the historical interest rate hike cycle (the target rate of federal funds remains unchanged in this round, which is slightly different from history, but the upward trend of market interest rates is the same) on the peak of the stock market. We calculated the result: when the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose to the 1.9-2.0% level, the U.S. bull market came to an end.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend of commodities will continue</b></p><p>We are pleased to review that in the annual strategy report released in 2019 before the launch of this round of commodities, we mentioned: \"The global mid-cycle-real estate cycle and commodity cycle are both in the expansion stage, and the short-cycle-Kitchen The cycle has also hit a low point and turned to expansion. The combined resonance of the mid-cycle and the short-cycle will push up the price of cyclical assets.\" So far, our judgment that the global economy is in the expansion stage remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the average expansion time of the commodity cycle is 24-26 months, this round of commodity upward trend will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between the commodity index and the S&P 500. Similar to A-shares, the S&P 500 is about 0-3 months ahead of the CRB index (just like the Shanghai Composite Index leads the PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily calculate that U.S. stocks will rise to around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>U.S. stocks are still operating in the valuation framework of the past decade</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net income has also been revised upward. At present, the market expects the growth rate of S&P 500 EPS in 2021-2022 to be 40% and 9% respectively; The ROE was 19.7% and 19.4% respectively; The EPS was 194,211 respectively (while when we wrote the strategy report at the end of last year, the EPS was only 170,197, with an increase of 14% and 7% respectively).</p><p>We have introduced that the United States currently maintains a lower U.S. bond yield than before the epidemic. According to the PE upper limit of the S&P 500 from 2008 to 2019, it is 21.4-21.5 times PE (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 20-year epidemic), If you give the S&P 500 a target price, you can get:</p><p>SPX target price 2021 = 194 * 21.4 = 4151 points;</p><p>If you take into account the valuation switch to 2022, you can get:</p><p>SPX target price 2022 = 211 * 21.4 = 4515 points;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that this year and next, before the S&P 500 fluctuates upward to 4,500 points, U.S. stocks are still running in the valuation channel of the past ten years without being significantly overvalued. Of course, when talking about overvaluation, we must discuss U.S. bond yields, TAPER and QE, and the position of the economic cycle. We have explained these issues earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. A shares: The market around the second quarterly report has begun</b></p><p><b>1. The rise in medium and long-term corporate loans proves that the economy is still expanding</b></p><p>M2 in May stopped declining year-on-year, and began to show the characteristics of stabilizing at the bottom. Medium and long-term loans still maintain a very steady growth, indicating the strong demand for manufacturing credit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Dismantling social financing subjects, local government special bonds, corporate bonds, and trust loans have declined more obviously recently. The downward background of corporate bonds is that this year, the central government requested to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments, and multiple departments jointly took action to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debts; Local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan this year compared with last year. Referring to the recent new local government debt limit issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2021 of 4,267.6 billion yuan (including a general debt limit of 800 billion yuan and a special debt limit of 3,467.6 billion yuan), it is lower than the previous The budget of 4,470 billion yuan approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (including 3,750 billion yuan in special debt); The decline of trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still looking for transformation and innovation. From this point of view, the characteristics of this year's social financing are: the financing demand of the government and local financing platforms has slowed down, the financing of real estate/trust has also been suppressed, and the demand for loans in the manufacturing industry is strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that M1 year-on-year and industrial added value year-on-year have either touched or approached the low point of the whole year and will rise with the upward economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fiscal deposits are not counted in M2 (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so the decline in social financing is more than that in M2. We think it is temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic funds are relatively loose, MLF has not risen since the epidemic last year, wealth management yields continue to decline, and credit spreads have declined (AA +, AAA is more obvious than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting from June, the gap between CPI and PPI will converge</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, the upward pressure on PPI was relatively high. During the tracking process in the past few months, we also felt that the upward trend of PPI repeatedly exceeded market expectations. May last year was the lowest point of PPI throughout the year, so morphologically, since June, PPI has undoubtedly started to decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the CPI has been dragged down to some extent by the downward trend of pig prices this year. However, observing by subjects, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment, housing, food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to improve significantly month-on-month. We estimate that CPI will remain resilient and rise steadily in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the other hand, the downward trend of PPI represents the easing of inflationary pressure, which is conducive to the restoration of profits in the manufacturing industry. But this does not mean the disappearance of inflationary pressures. Because in a commodity cycle, with the improvement of demand, the production capacity on the supply side cannot be significantly expanded in a short cycle. Moreover, the current inventory of cyclical products is generally not high. With the depletion of inventory, there is still room for further upward movement in commodity prices..</p><p><b>3. The valuation of A-shares is not high, locking in the sector where the mid-term report is expected to be revised upward</b></p><p><b>1) On the whole, the current valuation of A shares is not high</b></p><p>Let's take the valuation level of the past ten years as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A shares.</p><p>The current valuation of Wind Quan A is 20.3 times. If valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will fall back to the average with the growth of performance. The current valuation of the CSI 300 is 14.5 times. If valuation switching is considered, the PE level in 2022 will also fall back to the average level along with the growth of performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE in 2022 will be lower than the average; The current valuation level of the GEM is slightly higher by 59.0 times, but it is also below +1 standard deviation. Since the growth rate of the GEM is higher, its corresponding PE in 2022 is lower than the average when considering the valuation switching scenario.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indexes, and the valuation is only-1 standard deviation from the average. If the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account, it is lower than-1 standard deviation; The valuation level of the SSE 50 is at a relatively high level. Considering the growth in 2022, the valuation level is slightly higher than the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, looking at A-shares in a ten-year cycle, the current valuation level is not high. Once the valuation switch is taken into account in the second half of the year, the current valuation is only the historical average level. If we measure the upside of A-shares, we calculate it based on the customary Shanghai Composite Index's highest level of 16-16.2 times PE at the beginning of the year. Taking into account factors including the valuation switch in 2022, the upside target range is estimated to be about 4200-4300 points. The above consideration is based on the scenario that the expansion of the economic cycle has not yet ended, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from performance improvement rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based indexes, the valuation of CSI 500 is more attractive than that of CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) From the perspective of growth, the performance growth rate of science and technology innovation and cycle this year is more obvious</b></p><p>From the observation of performance growth rate, the growth rate of science and technology innovation this year ranks first in the broad-based index, with a growth rate of 70% in 21 years compared with 20 years, followed by small-cap companies, Guozheng 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, and GEM 50. Combined with the current valuation level and rebound situation, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and CSI 500 are more cost-effective. In terms of style, what cannot be ignored this year is the profit growth rate of cyclical industries, with a year-on-year growth of 82%, which is better than growth (74%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From an industry perspective, in addition to transportation, media, consumer services, and retail, which had a low base last year, the industries with faster growth this year are among the top non-ferrous metals and black metals. In addition, computers, basic chemicals, electronics, and automobiles also rank among the top.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustment, cyclical industries are more dominant</b></p><p>After the annual report (April 30th), Kechuang 50 and CSI 500 are expected to have the largest upward revision among all broad-based indexes, and the Shanghai Composite Index is also revised up by 1%, ranking third. GEM, CSI 1000, and National Securities 2000 ranked the bottom three respectively. Compared with styles, the performance of cyclical industries has the largest upward trend, while the growth has the largest downward revision. This is slightly contradictory to our observation in the previous table, that is, although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, since the annual report, the performance has been revised downward, indicating that the current upward trend in growth stocks is also differentiated rather than universal, while the decline in cyclical industries is temporary, and the second quarterly report is approaching. We believe that the opportunities in cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual reports, the performance adjustment rankings are compared by industries as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals are at the top, machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal, and light industry manufacturing are also raised to a certain extent, while the bottom rankings are Commerce and retail, media, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communications, and computers.</p><p>In this sorting, we believe that it is still necessary to discuss the prices of commodities. For example, if the prices of basic metals, coal, and crude oil go up, it will bring profit pressure to industries sensitive to raw materials such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals, and home appliances in the midstream. If the prices in the upstream of the cycle are stable or downward, the profit growth rate of the above industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is: this round of economic cycle expansion is not over yet, and the inducement for upward commodity prices: the core variable of relatively limited capacity expansion for 7-10 consecutive years has not changed. Assuming that downstream output continues to rise, the upward pressure of upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>In terms of the profit forecast of the sector, we tend to think that the mid-term performance of non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal in the upstream of the cycle is more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From a valuation perspective, the valuation repair potential of Big Finance should not be ignored</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI rises and the market yield rises, it is expected that the financial industry will be affected by the increase in interest rate spreads and its profits will improve. Therefore, the undervalued big finance is expected to be repaired in the second half of the year. We put the primary industry in the PE/PB quantile matrix to observe. The current PB valuation of bank stocks is at the lowest level in history, and we expect that the ROE of the banking industry in Q2 this year will have a relatively obvious year-on-year increase (compared with the expected increase since Q2 last year). The insurance industry's premium income is poor this year, but since the sector has not performed in the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully digested in the stock price, and there is room for valuation repair in the second half of the year. Brokerages have experienced a year of weak shocks since July last year, and their current valuations are also very low (together with insurance, which is below 10% of the historical quantile). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration system and the fact that the asset quality of securities firms is better than that of insurance and banks, we believe that this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth, expectation adjustment, and valuation three aspects,<b>We are optimistic about science and technology innovation board, upstream cycle, and big finance as the preferred recommendations in the second half of the year. At the same time, according to the previous calculation, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to rise to a height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>3. Hong Kong stocks: gaining momentum for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p><b>1. The Hang Seng Index is expected to break through new highs in this round in the second half of 2021</b></p><p>The market expects that the EPS growth rate of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be 11% in 2021 and-2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as A-shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% and 12%.. The goal of some large Internet companies this year is still to pursue revenue growth rather than profit. This is part of the reason. In addition, the real estate and financial parts of the Hang Seng Index account for a relatively high proportion, which has also dragged down profit growth to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below shows the PB fluctuation range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation historically. We use this to calculate the target level of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In previous reports, we have explained that since the stability of net assets is better from the historical volatility observation (compared with EPS and Dividend), we usually consider PB valuation when predicting the low or high point of the Hang Seng Index or Dividend ratio. We continue to use the increase in PB during each round of Kitchen cycle expansion, and take the median to calculate the upper limit of PB of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the PB expansion rates of the Hang Seng Index in each Kitchen cycle have been 49%, 85%, 74%, 29%, and 63% respectively, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We get that the upper PB limit of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year is 1.39 times.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit = 0.87 * (1 +60%) = 1.39</p><p>According to analysts' expectations for net assets in 2021-2022 of 21,784 points and 23,387 points, the target level of the Hang Seng Index is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021) * 1.39 = 30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (given valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) * 1.39 = 32,610 pips.</p><p><b>Therefore, we judge that the target price of the Hang Seng Index will run to around 31,000-32,000 points in the second half of the year, which has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>2. Review of trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>We summarized five major directions in the \"Summary of Hong Kong Stocks in 2020\" at the beginning of the year: \"Looking forward to 2021, the direction of finding excess returns may be: 1. The new economy is still the main battlefield, especially the investment targets under the interference of anti-monopoly policies and US policies. There will be opportunities for\" panic-wrong killing-new highs \"; 2. Sub-new shares will bring more investment clues; 3. The upward trend of risk appetite will help the valuation of large and small market values converge; 4. With the recovery of the epidemic, the pro-cyclical sector will narrow the performance difference between the sectors; 5. The implementation of the boots of the U.S. investment ban will bring opportunities to repair the valuation of listed companies. \"</p><p><b>Review In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks experienced three stages: rising, falling and rebounding.</b></p><p>In the first stage, before the Spring Festival, technology stocks and biotechnology stocks took the lead. In the highest period, the Hang Seng Technology Index reached an increase of 29%;</p><p>The second stage is from after the Spring Festival to the beginning of May. Under the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and the influence of Internet anti-monopoly, the Hang Seng Technology Index has a sharp pullback/retracement, with the yield falling from 29% to-11%, and the Hang Seng Index falling below 28,000 points;</p><p>The third stage is from late May to June. With the stabilization of U.S. bond yields and the market continuing to absorb many influences of antitrust, major indexes began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by Hong Kong local stocks (9%), followed by Hong Kong Stock Connect (7%), and the State Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Technology underperformed the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks are a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology are the two major tracks that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technology saw a large increase, coupled with the impact of anti-monopoly, which brought some investors to take profits, while Hang Seng Biotechnology took over the baton and performed well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will still be the main battlefield, and Hang Seng Technology and Biotechnology will perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">Huaxia Hang Seng Technology</a>ETFs, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Bosera Hang Seng Technology ETF, and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been released. Mainland investors can purchase the Hang Seng Technology Index through these ETFs, which solves the problem of Hong Kong stocks. Similar ones not covered<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Baidu, JD.com, Bilibili and other investment restrictions on a large number of stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) From the perspective of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if it outperforms the Hang Seng Index, in terms of style, positions are required to be concentrated on Hang Seng small-cap stocks, small-and medium-cap stocks, and mid-cap stocks, rather than large-cap stocks and medium-and large-cap stocks. At present, the valuations of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks are still converging. We have calculated according to historical laws that when the PB difference between the two turns positive, it is the end point of valuation revision (and often the end point of a bull market). It also shows that in the current market, opportunities far outweigh risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From an industry perspective, in addition to the medical sector, the upstream of this year's cycle is shining brilliantly. Among them, the performance of the energy industry ranked first, the raw material industry ranked third, and the comprehensive industry and Hang Seng Industry also performed well. The lower-ranked industries are consumer staples, information technology, and finance. We are still very optimistic about resource products. Since the prices of bulk commodities have risen significantly compared with last year, for example, crude oil prices have risen to a new high since the epidemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, copper prices have risen by 93% year-on-year, and aluminum prices have risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, there is a high probability that the second quarterly reports of these sectors will have good quarterly performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to the industry performance statistics of 524 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal has increased astonishingly, followed by steel, basic chemicals, medicine, textiles and clothing, media, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals. The lowest-ranked sectors are mainly power equipment, building materials, and catering. Tourism, national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, comprehensive, food and beverage and other industries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the banned investment list, the income in the first half of the year is gratifying. At the beginning of the year, we judged that the investment ban company would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average increase of companies on the banned investment list is 35%, with a median of 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecom operators and oil companies, still have low valuations, and there is still considerable room for upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: cycle dominance, catering/computer downward adjustment</b></p><p>Profit expectations: Compared before and after the annual report, the 2021 net profit expectations of several industries such as steel, military industry, petroleum and petrochemicals, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, and non-bank finance have been revised upward, while catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, The performance of non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communications, and media sectors has been revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue expectations: Compared with before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue expectations of several industries such as national defense and military industry, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components, and transportation are revised upward; The revenue expectations of catering, tourism, computer, media and other industries have been revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation comparison: textile and clothing hit a new high, and the real estate industry chain hit a new low</b></p><p>Compared with the data of the last five years, the current valuation quantile of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median value). Among them, textile and clothing, steel, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors are higher, while real estate, construction, building materials, light industries such as industrial manufacturing, non-bank finance, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, and transportation are significantly lower than the average level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Capital inflows/outflows in recent months: some midstreams are still flowing in, indicating that the market is still in a bull market</p><p>Judging from the recent capital inflow, many sectors in the middle reaches have further increased their positions, while the big finance and upstream of the cycle are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure shows that the economic recovery is still on the way rather than coming to an end. At the end of the bull market, the situation should be the opposite: that is, the midstream outflow, while the big finance and upstream funds of the cycle accelerate the inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Investment advice</b></p><p>1. Overall, when the CPI goes up, the low valuation will have a certain degree of valuation repair. Such as big finance, real estate, public utilities, and telecom operators. Compared with these industries, we think big finance is better. The reason is that a) banks and securities firms have made relatively large provisions in 2020, and the year-on-year improvement in performance this year is even more obvious; b) they are undervalued; c) Widening interest rate spreads have a boost to their earnings expectations; The cost of land acquisition in the real estate industry this year is relatively high, which is manifested in a high degree of land premium, and the cost of construction and installation is also relatively high when commodities are at a high level. Therefore, we believe that although the valuation of real estate companies is low at present, their attractiveness is slightly less than that of companies in the industrial chain. The development of the construction industry is subject to the scale of government investment. At present, their future growth rate will further slow down;</p><p>2. As far as the second quarterly report is concerned, cyclical industries, especially companies upstream of the cycle, are more likely to exceed expectations. Petroleum and petrochemical, coal, non-ferrous metals and other sectors will perform better with high commodity prices (or even further upward). During this period, the midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, household appliances, etc. may show a situation of rising first and then falling. The reason is that the rising commodity prices in the late stage of economic expansion leads to the narrowing of their profits, and the downstream transmission of prices is not as easy as in the early and middle stages of economic expansion;</p><p>3. In this round of economic cycle, due to the comprehensive impact of the epidemic and economic transformation (dual cycle), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology, and brand clothing, especially those companies that uniquely exist in Hong Kong stocks, will show good investment value in the past and in the future. At present, Hang Seng Technology needs to rebound. We believe that the pressure of anti-monopoly has been fully digested. In the stock price in the first half of the year, the current valuation of biotechnology/medical devices/textiles and clothing is not low, but there are short-term catalytic factors, policy or performance. In terms of performance, we think their trend is similar to the middle reaches. Q3 will still perform well, while Q4 will become less attractive due to high valuation.</p><p>To sum up, we believe that big finance, upstream cycle, and Hang Seng Technology are the three major directions that we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, textiles and clothing will also report trend opportunities before and after the semi-annual report. Due to the recurrence of the epidemic, it will take time for the gaming sector to recover, and it is expected that there will be more obvious opportunities in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Risk warning</b></p><p>The risk of lower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, the risk of recurrent epidemics, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, and the risk of technological war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observation\", author: Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","02833":"恒指ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154941861","content_text":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期的GDP，CPI，消费，房价等数据在不断的上行，另一方面，实际时薪的下降，就业岗位恢复较慢，居民财富中股票占比过高，拜登政府加税可能带来对企业投资与招聘的负面影响，都需要被美联储充分考虑。因此，我们不认为Taper是一蹴而就的，初步判断在2021年Q4/2022年Q1才会有更加明晰的信号;美债收益率在年初的上行过快，充分消化了通胀的影响，尽管我们判断收益率依然震荡上行，但我们认为1.9-2.0%才是美股转向的阈值。以2022年的盈利作为依据，在4500点以下(本轮美股牛市我们的目标位)，标普依然运行在过去十年的估值框架里而并未大幅高估。\n国内：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济周期尚在扩张中，我们初步判断产量(工业增加值同比)、M1同比，都将在6、7月份开始反弹。\n从6月开始，CPI与PPI将收敛，意味着制造业的盈利将有所改善。伴随着CPI的逐渐上行，市场的信心也将不断被提升。\n以过去十年为参照，当下A股的估值并不高，大多宽基指数的估值(2022年)仅为平均值水平。因此，我们认为在经济周期扩张的时期，大盘有望突破本轮新高，下半年目标位4200-4300点。\n从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n港股投资建议：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n我们调整恒生指数2021年31000-32000点的目标区间，意味着恒指有机会挑战本轮新高;\n我们认为下半年大盘上行的同时，也会伴随轮动的局面。半年报较优或者其他基本面驱动的板块主要为纺织服装、医药、金属、能源，其次，恒生科技、大金融中报预计符合预期而股价超跌，也将会有明显的估值修复。\n二季报之后或者Q4，部分板块的估值过高，加之距离年底taper以及资金面的不确定性，使得风险偏好无法持续提升，此时当关注价格可能持续上行的资源股、低估值的银行股、复苏预期滞后博彩股，以及经济周期影响较小的电信运营商和香港本地股。\n风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n正文\n一、全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n1、到年底部分国家接种率将超过七成\n全球新增疫情最近稳定在每天30-40万例，较年初有明显下降，其中主要发达国家新增病例较年初下降明显。\n\n进入到5、6月份，根据our world in data的数据，部分国家的接种率(一剂)明显加速提升，按照当下的速度，在入冬之前，大部分有条件的国家，接种率能超过70%，即世卫组织认可的全民免疫效果的接种率水平。中国接种疫苗的速度更加惊人，目前已经超过了10亿剂次，每天以2000万的接种，预计也将在年底之前达到70%以上的接种率。\n\n2、世界银行上修全球GDP增速至5.6%\n1）2021年全球经济的上修\n世界银行1月份时预计全球GDP增速只有4.1%。6月，世界银行将全球GDP增速上修至5.6%，这是80 年来从衰退中取得的最强复苏，主要是受到美国和中国经济分别增长 6.8% 和 8.5% 的推动。IMF则更加乐观一些，认为全球GDP增速将达到6%(其年初的预期是5.15%)。\n\n两者对中国经济的增速的预期相当，世界银行预期中国2021年GDP增速为8.5%，IMF预期为8.4%;世界银行预期美国2021年GDP增速为6.8%，IMF预期为6.4%。\n2）中美的GDP差距缩小\n疫情期间，中国的GDP继续增长，美国GDP下滑，这缩小了中美GDP的差距，以(美国-中国)/美国表示差距的话，2020年，中美GDP差距为30%，IMF估计，不考虑人民币兑美元汇率的影响，到2026年，中美GDP差距将缩减至16%，该数字在2010年为60%，在2016年时缩小到了40%。\n\n在两国GDP缩小差距的背景下，自拜登就任美国总统之后，美国政府对中国频频释放各类压力。6月8日，美国国会参议院通过《2021年美国创新与竞争法》，美国有线电视新闻网称该法案意在向美国技术、科学、研究领域投资逾2000亿美元，用来对抗中国日益增长的影响力。\n另一方面，中国美国商会6月发布的《2021年度美国企业在中国白皮书》显示，中国市场对美国企业仍具有强大吸引力。超过一半(52%)的在华美国企业提到，中国第一大商机是“国内消费的增长和日益庞大的富裕中产阶层的崛起”，超过三分之二的美国企业将中国视为优先市场，85%的美国企业并未打算将制造或采购工序迁往中国以外的地方。白皮书还显示，近61%的美国企业相信中国将继续向外资开放市场。美国企业在中国的获得感进一步增强，如在金融领域，美国公司已经获得了在中国开展全方位业务的许可;在食品和农业领域，中国修改了法规，允许更多的美国产品进入中国等。\n3、美国经济周期尚在扩张阶段\n1）美国经济框架的启示：通胀与滞胀中的平衡\n在美国的经济框架中，利率政策或者个人收入传导给消费支出，这需要2、3个季度，然后消费的上升将带来工业生产、服务的景气度提升，以及企业盈利的提升，此间又需要1、2个季度。\n\n然后企业预期未来景气度的向上，开始增加资本开支，同时积极招工(这又是在2-4个季度之后了)，进而推动通货膨胀的上行。此时，美联储出手对通胀进行干预，以保证经济的健康发展。\n在这套系统中，如果干预的过晚，可能会使得通货膨胀滋长;但如果干预过早，就会将刚刚复苏的经济浇灭在摇篮中。如何来判断这个节奏，向来是个“天大的问题”，左边是通胀，右边是通缩，政府与中央银行必须在平衡木上小心翼翼的前行。\n2）当下美国经济数据中的一些矛盾之处\n一方面，美国消费、产量景气度无疑是上行的：个人消费支出上行(也归因去年低基数)，同时消费者信心指数恢复到疫情以来的最好水平。\n\n制造业PMI震荡上行，5月份服务业的PMI已经超过了疫情前的最高水平。\n\n成屋销售同比十年新高，房价加速上行，美国诸多媒体报道随处可见的“一房难求”、“买房加价”的现象。\n\n此外，市场对于美国宏观经济数据的预期，几个月以来也在不断上修。\n\n但是另一方面，在光鲜的数据背后，也有着不少隐忧：\n其一是实际时薪的下降。由于实际时薪决定了消费者的真实购买力，而本次经济复苏中，由于供给侧产能无法及时跟上、以及美元超发导致的商品价格的上行，推动了CPI率先走强，这使得名义时薪的上行而实际时薪的下降。历史上，实际时薪作为美国居民消费比较可靠的前导指标(当然，这主要在就业状况相对稳定的前提下)，当下给出的趋势并不明朗。\n\n其二是就业恢复仍需观察。根据美国劳工部的数据，新冠疫情让美国2200万人失去了工作。到目前为止，只恢复到了疫情前的67%的水平，还有800万就业差距。尚就在4月，美国新增非农就业大幅低于市场预期，5月仅仅符合本不高的预期。部分分析认为，因为撒钱式的补贴导致了低收入群体上班与不上班收入相当，这使得部分企业找不到员工，最终再次关门倒闭。据美国CNBC报导，在过去的一个月里，已经有25个州宣布将在其于9月6日正式到期之前，终止疫情期间的额外福利计划。一些州最早将于6月12日就停止联邦额外失业金的发放。这些州都是由共和党州长领导的。他们表示，额外增加的失业救济金，正在导致失业工人更愿意待在家里，而不是去找工作，这种补助使得企业很难招到工人，以填补急需的空缺职位。美国商会首席政策官布拉德利认为：“令人失望的就业报告清楚地表明，向不工作的人支付工资，正在抑制本应更加强劲的就业市场。”停止联邦额外失业金对后续用工的影响总体是积极的，但效果尚需跟踪。\n\n其三是关于拜登政府加税的预期。虽然我们预计此计划实施起来相当困难，而且为了确保中期选举，民主党不大可能在2022年中期选举之前在此问题上有过多的建树。然而，加税的预期在一定程度上将影响企业的人力资源规划。美国商会会长Clark表示，在提高商业税的必要性问题上与政府存在分歧：“拟议的增税计划将极大地损害美国企业和美国劳动者的利益。现在肯定不是为经济复苏设置新障碍的时候。政府倡导基础设施是正确的，我们希望与政府一起做这件事，但还有其他方法来资助基建计划。”美国商会表示支持基建设投资，但倾向于主要通过基础设施使用费来提供资金。美国零售联合会发言人McGinty表示，该组织在提交给美国参议院财政委员会的一封报告中反对为通过增加企业税为基建计划筹集资金。此外，美国零售业领导者协会发言人McGinty也表态，该协会反对给企业增税的立场没有改变。\n其四是关于美国股市在居民资产中的占比过高，股市的下跌将严重打击居民的消费热情。美国居民的财富和股票资产相关的有两类，一类是直接投资，另一类是通过养老计划(最终进入股市、债市)，两者在居民财富占比达到了惊人的57%(处在历史最高水平)，相比中国居民财富最大类的为房地产，在美国居民资产中的占比仅为24%。历史上，消费与股市互为因果：股票市场下跌→居民财富缩水→消费更加保守→企业盈利下降→股票市场下跌。当下，美股的总市值大约为45万亿美元，约为美国预期2021年GDP(22.2万亿美元)的202%。按照拉斯特维德在《逃不开的经济周期》中的估计，股市下跌将对GDP产生约4%的冲击系数。即，倘若美股下跌20%(这仅是一个基钦周期级别的调整)，单股市下跌对GDP的负向作用可达202%*20%*4%=-1.6%，以上，尚不考虑企业的资本开支萎缩，存货减值，房地产下跌等延伸性影响。一般来说，在一个有幅度的股票市场下跌行情中(如下跌1/3至一半)，且房地产市场也受到影响时(比如下跌1/5至1/3)，对当年GDP的综合影响约为-15%左右。\n\n美联储主席鲍威尔在4月的FOMC记者会上表示，美联储“将确保货币政策继续为经济提供强有力的支持，直到完成复苏”。目前，投资者预期美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上宣布缩减QE。路透最新调查也显示，美联储可能在8月或9月宣布削减其大规模购债计划的策略，但预计要到明年初才会开始削减每月购买规模。\n而我们依然重复这一观点：就当下的美国经济，一旦TAPER实施，温和复苏的局面将可能终结。所以，持续审慎关注通胀(Q2/Q3)，就业数据(6、7、8月)，尤其是7、8月在部分州政府取消救助后对就业的影响，对于美联储是必要的。\n3）美债的走平说明市场对通胀的预期已经消化\n尽管5月份美国的CPI、核心CPI都创了新高，但是通胀预期(10年期美债收益率-10年TIPS收益率)下跌，美国10年期国债收益率振荡走平，这都说明对于通胀的预期已被市场所消化，下一步需要继续跟踪三季度的通胀水平。\n\n我们曾定量测算了本轮美债收益率的上行对于股票市场产生影响的关键位置。方法是观察在历史上的升息周期中加息次数、幅度(本轮联邦基金目标利率不动，这和历史略有区别，但市场利率上行是相同的)对于股票市场见顶的影响。我们测算了该结果：10年期美债收益率上行至1.9-2.0%水平时，美国牛市告一段落。\n4、大宗商品的上行仍将持续\n我们欣慰的回顾，在本轮大宗商品启动前的2019年发布的年度策略报告中，我们提及：“全球中周期——房地产周期、大宗商品周期均处在扩张阶段，短周期——基钦周期也已触及低点，转向扩张。中周期与短周期的合力共振向上，将推动周期资产价格的上涨”。到目前为止，我们对全球经济处在扩张阶段的判断依然没有改变。\n\n由于商品周期平均扩张时间为24-26个月，本轮大宗商品的上行将会在2022年二季度终结。此外，我们对比了商品指数与标普500的关系，与A股类似，标普500领先于CRB指数约0-3个月(就像上证指数领先PPI一样)，因此，我们初步匡算，美股将上涨到2022年一季度左右。\n美股依然运行在过去十年的估值框架中\n\n随着经济预期的向上修正，标普500的净利润也被上修。目前市场预期2021-2022年标普500EPS增速分别为40%，9%;ROE分别为19.7%，19.4%;EPS分别为194，211(而在我们去年年底撰写策略报告时期，EPS仅为170，197，上调幅度分别为14%，7%)。\n我们曾经介绍过，当下美国维持比疫情前更低的美债收益率，按照2008-2019年标普500的PE上限，21.4-21.5倍PE(剔除08年金融危机与20年疫情的极端影响)，给予标普500目标价，则可得：\nSPX目标价2021=194*21.4=4151点;\n如果考虑到估值切换到2022年，则可以得到：\nSPX目标价2022=211*21.4=4515点;\n因此，我们认为，今明两年，在标普500震荡上行达到4500点之前，美股则依然运行在最近十年的估值通道中而并未大幅高估。当然，谈论高估必然要讨论美债收益率、TAPER与QE，以及经济周期的位置，这些问题我们已经在前文解释过。\n\n二、A股：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n1、企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济尚在扩张中\n5月份的M2同比已经不再下滑，开始出现了底部稳住的特征。中长期贷款依旧保持非常稳健的增长，预示着制造业信贷需求的旺盛。\n\n拆解社融科目，最近下降较为明显的是地方政府专项债券、企业债券、信托贷款。企业债券的下行背景是今年中央要求抓实化解地方政府隐性债务风险工作，多部门联合出手强化监管，遏制隐性债务增长;地方政府专项债券今年较去年略减少2800亿元，参考近期财政部下达2021年新增地方政府债务限额42676亿元(其中一般债务限额8000亿元，专项债务限额34676亿元)，低于此前经十三届人大四次会议批准的44700亿元预算(其中专项债务额度37500亿元);信托贷款的下滑是必然的，今年是资管新规过渡期的最后一年，信托业依旧在寻找转型与创新中。如此来看，今年的社融的特征是：政府与地方融资平台的融资需求放缓，房地产/信托的融资也被抑制住，而制造业的贷款需求旺盛。\n\n我们预估M1同比、工业增加值同比或者已经触及或者接近全年的低点并伴随经济周期的向上而抬升。\n\nM2中不统计财政存款(去年5月恰值财政存款高峰期)，因此社融较M2下滑更多我们认为是暂时性的。\n\n此外，国内资金面相对宽松，MLF从去年疫情至今尚未上行，理财收益率继续下行，信用利差下行(AA+，AAA较AA更加明显)。\n\n2、从6月开始，CPI与PPI差距将收敛\n今年上半年，PPI上行压力较大，在前几个月的跟踪过程中我们也感受到PPI的上行屡屡超过市场预期。去年5月为PPI全年的低点，因此从形态上，自6月份开始，PPI开启下行无疑。\n\n今年以来，CPI今年受制于猪价的下行有一定的拖累，但分科目观察，交通和通信、教育文化和娱乐、居住，以及食品烟酒环比都开始有了比较明显的改善。我们估计，CPI下半年还将保持韧性，稳步向上。\n\n但另一方面，PPI的下行代表了通胀压力的减缓，有利于制造业的盈利修复。但这并非意味着通胀压力的消失。因为在一个商品周期中，随着需求的好转，供给侧的产能尚无法在短周期内明显扩大，况且当下的周期品库存总体不高，随着库存的去化，商品价格还有进一步上行的空间。\n3、A股估值并不高，锁定中报预期上修的板块\n1）综合来看，当下A股估值并不高\n我们以过去十年的估值水平作为一个参考，观察一下当下A股的估值水平。\n万得全A当下估值20.3倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长回落至平均值。沪深300目前估值为14.5倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长也将回落至平均水平。\n\n上证指数当下的估值为14.2倍，处在平均值水平，若考虑估值切换，则2022年对应PE低于平均值;创业板当下估值水平略高59.0倍，但也处于+1个标准差以下，由于创业板增速更高，因此在考虑到估值切换的情境下，其2022年对应PE则低于平均值。\n\n中证500目前估值在所有主要的宽基指数中处于较低水平，估值仅为平均值-1标准差，若考虑到2022年的增速，则低于-1标准差;上证50估值水平处于相对较高水平，考虑到2022年的增长，则估值水平略高于历史平均值。\n\n综上，以十年周期来看A股，当下的估值水平并不高，下半年一旦考虑到估值切换，当下估值也仅为历史平均水平。如果测算A股的上行空间，我们以习惯的上证指数在年初16-16.2倍PE的年内最高水平测算，考虑到包含2022年估值切换的因素，测算上行目标区间约为4200-4300点。以上考虑是建立在经济周期扩张尚未结束，上行的主要动力是来自业绩提升而非估值扩张的情景。从宽基指数看，中证500较沪深300、上证50等估值更具吸引力。\n2）从成长性来看，科创与周期今年的业绩增速更明显\n从业绩增速观察，今年科创增速在宽基指数中居前，21年对比20年增长率高达70%，其次是小市值公司，国证2000，中证1000，中证500，创业板50，结合当下的估值水平和反弹情况，科创板、中证500性价比较高。在风格中，今年依旧不容忽视的是周期性行业的盈利增速，同比82%的增长，好过成长(74%)。\n\n从行业角度，今年增速较快的行业除了去年低基数的交运、传媒、消费者服务、零售外，有色、黑色居前，此外计算机、基础化工、电子、汽车也排名居前。\n\n3）从预期调整角度来看，周期性行业更占优势\n年报之后(4月30日)，科创50、中证500在所有宽基指数中预期上修幅度最大，上证指数也上修1%，排名第三。创业板、中证1000、国证2000则排名分别为后三位。风格中比较，周期性行业业绩上行幅度最大，成长则下修幅度最大。这和我们在前表中的观察略有矛盾，即成长股虽然增速最快，但从年报之后，业绩下修，说明目前成长股中的上行也是分化的而不是普遍的，而周期性行业的下跌是暂时的，二季报将至，我们认为周期性行业的机会将更加确定。\n\n对比年报后，业绩调整排名分行业比较如下：钢铁、消费者服务、汽车、交运石油石化居前，机械、有色金属、煤炭、轻工制造也有一定幅度的上调，而排名居后的分别是商贸零售、传媒、综合、农林牧渔、通信、计算机。\n在这样的排序中，我们认为依然需要讨论商品的价格，例如，如果基本金属、煤炭、原油的价格上行，将对中游的钢铁、汽车、机械、轻工、化工、家电等原材料敏感性的行业带来盈利压力，如果周期上游的价格稳定或者下行，则如上行业的盈利增速可能反倒继续上修。\n\n我们的态度是：本轮经济周期扩张尚未结束，而商品价格上行的诱因：连续7-10年的产能扩张相对有限的核心变量并没有改变，假定下游产量继续上行，则上游原材料上行的压力始终存在。因此，在板块的盈利预测方面，我们倾向于认为偏周期上游的有色金属、石油石化、煤炭的中报业绩确定性更强。\n4）从估值角度来看，不应忽略大金融的估值修复潜力\n按照对经济周期的理解，当CPI向上，市场收益率上行，预期金融行业受到息差加大的影响而盈利改善。因此，低估值的大金融有望在下半年修复。我们将一级行业放在PE/PB分位矩阵中观察，目前银行股的PB估值在历史最低水平，而且我们预计今年Q2银行业的ROE将有相对明显的同比抬升(对比去年Q2开始的预计提)。保险行业今年保费收入较差，但由于两年以来该板块没有表现，基本面不佳已经充分消化在股价上，下半年也有估值修复的空间。券商从去年7月份经历了一年的弱势震荡，当下估值也很低(连同保险处在历史分位10%以下)。考虑到国内注册制大潮的推进，以及券商资产质量优于保险、银行，我们认为下半年该板块也将有不错的表现。\n\n综合成长性，预期调整，估值三个方面，我们看好科创板、周期上游、大金融作为下半年的首选推荐。同时，我们按照前文的测算，上证将在年内有望上行至4200-4300点的高度。\n三、港股：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n1、2021年下半年恒指有望突破本轮新高\n市场预期，恒生指数(HSI)在2021年EPS增速为11%，2022年增速为-2%，这个表现不如A股，但是其收入端并不差，同比为19%与12%的增速。一些大型的互联网公司今年的目标依然是追求收入的增速而非利润端，这是一部分原因，另外恒生指数中地产、金融部分占比较高，也一定程度上拖累了利润的增长。\n\n下图是恒生指数(HSI)在历史上估值的PB波动区间。我们以此来测算恒指的下半年目标位。\n\n在此前的报告中，我们曾解释过，由于从历史波动率观察，净资产的稳定性更好(较EPS和股息)，因此，我们在预测恒指的低点或者高点通常考虑PB估值或者股息率。我们沿用每轮基钦周期扩张时PB的提升幅度，取中位数来匡算2021年下半年恒生指数的PB上限。\n\n从2002年以来，恒指在每轮基钦周期中的PB扩张幅度分别为49%、85%、74%、29%、63%，中位数为63%，平均数为60%。我们得到下半年恒生指数的PB上限是1.39倍。\nPB2021上限=0.87*(1+60%)=1.39\n根据分析师对2021-2022年净资产的预期为21,784点、23,387点，则恒指的目标位为：\n中性：21784(BPS2021)*1.39=30,374点;\n乐观(考虑到估值切换到2022年)：23,387(BPS2022)*1.39=32,610点。\n因此，我们判断下半年恒指的目标价将运行到31,000-32,000点附近，即有创本轮新高的潜力。\n2、上半年走势回顾\n我们在年初《2020年港股小结》中总结了五大方向：“展望2021年，寻找超额收益的方向可能是：1、新经济依然是主战场，尤其是反垄断政策与美国政策干扰下的投资标的将会“恐慌-错杀-再新高”的机会;2、次新股将带来更多的投资线索;3、风险偏好的上行将有助于大小市值的估值收敛;4、顺周期板块伴随疫情的恢复，将缩小板块间的表现差异;5、美国禁投令的靴子落地，将带来名单公司的估值修复机会。”\n复盘今年上半年，港股经历了三个阶段：上涨、下跌、反弹。\n第一阶段是春节之前，科技股、生物科技股一马当先，最高时期，恒生科技指数达到了29%的上涨幅度;\n第二个阶段是春节后至5月初，在美债收益率快速上行，以及互联网反垄断的影响下，恒生科技指数大幅回撤，收益率从29%跌至-11%，恒指跌破28000点;\n第三阶段是5月下旬到6月，随着美债收益率的稳定，以及市场不断的吸收了反垄断的诸多影响，各大指数开始反弹。表现最好的是生物科技板块(25%)，其次是香港本地股(9%)，再其次是港股通(7%)，国企指数和恒生科技跑输恒生指数。\n1）从内地投资者的角度，港股作为A股市场的补充，恒生科技与恒生生物科技是投资者最关注的两大赛道。去年恒生科技涨幅较大，加之反垄断的影响，带来了部分投资者止盈，而恒生生物科技则接过了接力棒，表现抢眼。我们相信，长期来看，新经济依然是主战场，恒生科技、生物科技都会有不错的表现。5月，易方达恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生科技ETF、大成恒生科技ETF、华安恒生科技ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生科技ETF、嘉实恒生科技ETF都已经发布，内地投资者可以透过这些ETF购买恒生科技指数，这样解决了港股没有覆盖的类似阿里巴巴、百度、京东、B站等一大批股票的投资限制问题。\n\n2）从风格上来看，可以看出，从年初以来，如果跑赢恒生指数，在风格上，要求仓位集中在恒生小型股、中小型股、中型股，而非大型股与中大型股。目前，恒生大型股与恒生小型股的估值依然在收敛中，我们按照历史规律统计过，当两者的PB差值转正，才是估值修正的终点(也往往是牛市的终点)，这也说明了目前的市场，机会远大于风险。\n\n3）从行业来看，除了医疗板块，今年周期上游大放异彩。其中能源业的表现排名第一，原材料业排名第三，综合业、恒生工业也有不错的表现。排名靠后的行业的必需性消费、资讯科技、金融。我们依然非常看好资源品，由于大宗品的价格较去年上行幅度很大，例如原油价格上行到了疫情以来的新高，CRB指数同比上行50%，铜价同比上行93%，铝价同比上行65%，因此大概率上这些板块二季报有不错的季报表现。\n\n4）从港股通524家公司的行业表现统计，煤炭涨幅惊人，其次是钢铁、基础化工、医药、纺织服装、传媒、有色金属、石油石化，排名居后的板块主要是电力设备、建材、餐饮旅游、国防军工、非银行金融、家电、汽车、综合、食品饮料等几个行业。\n\n5）从禁投名单的角度看，上半年收益可喜。我们在年初判断，禁投令公司今年会有不错的表现。截至2021年6月，禁投名单公司涨幅平均数为35%，中位数19%，大幅跑赢恒指。尽管如此，我们认为其中的诸多公司如电信运营商、石油公司，估值依然较低，还有相当程度的上行空间。\n\n3、市场预期变化：周期占优，餐饮/计算机下调\n利润预期：对比年报前后，钢铁、军工、石油石化、银行、家电、电子元器件、建筑、非银金融等几个行业的2021年净利润预期上修，而餐饮旅游、计算机、农林牧渔、有色金属、电力设备、机械、建材、食品饮料、商贸零售、通信、传媒几个板块的业绩下修。\n\n收入预期：对比年报前后，国防军工、钢铁、建材、家电、煤炭、汽车、电力设备、农林牧渔、电子元器件、交运等几个行业的2021年收入预期上修;而餐饮旅游、计算机、传媒等行业的收入预期下修。\n\n4、估值比较：纺织服装创新高，地产产业链新低\n以最近5年的数据比较，当下港股通的估值分位为24%(中位值)，其中，纺织服装、钢铁、基础化工、石油石化几个板块较高，而房地产、建筑、建材、轻工制造、非银金融、传媒、餐饮旅游、家电、交运等行业大幅低于平均水平。\n\n近月资金流入/流出：部分中游还在流入，说明市场还在牛市中\n从近期的资金流入情况来看，中游的诸多板块有进一步的加仓，而大金融、周期上游暂时偏弱。实际上这样的结构更加说明经济复苏依然在路上而非尾声。在牛市的尾声，呈现的局面应该相反：即中游流出，而大金融、周期上游资金加速流入。\n\n四、投资建议\n1、整体而言，在CPI上行时，低估值会有一定幅度的估值修复。如大金融、房地产、公用事业、电信运营商，这些行业相比较而言，我们认为大金融更优。理由是a)银行、券商在2020年都进行了较大幅度的计提，今年业绩同比改善更加明显;b)它们估值较低;c)息差扩大对它们的盈利预期有推动作用;房地产业今年拿地的成本较高，表现为较高程度的土地溢价，而承受的建安成本在大宗商品处在高位处也较高，因此我们认为地产公司目前尽管估值较低，但其吸引力略小于产业链上的公司。建筑业的发展受制于政府投资规模，目前来看，它们未来的增长速度将进一步放缓;\n2、就二季报来看，周期性行业，尤其是周期上游的公司更容易超预期。石油石化、煤炭、有色金属等板块，伴随着商品价格的高位(甚至进一步上行)，业绩会更佳。此间，汽车、机械、电子、家电等中游板块，或呈现先上涨后下跌的局面，理由是经济扩张后期商品价格上行导致其利润收窄，而价格的向下游传导也不如经济扩张早中期容易;\n3、本轮经济周期，由于疫情、经济转型(双循环)等综合影响，以恒生科技、生物科技、品牌服饰为代表的消费股，尤其是那些在港股中独特存在的公司，过去以及未来都会呈现良好的投资价值。当下，恒生科技有反弹需要，我们认为反垄断的压力已经充分消化在上半年的股价中，生物科技/医疗器械/纺织服装目前估值不低，但都有短期的催化因素，政策上的或业绩上的，我们认为它们的走势类似中游，Q3依然会有不错的表现，而Q4则会因为估值高而变得吸引力下降。\n综上，我们认为大金融、周期上游、恒生科技是我们下半年看好的三大方向。此外，新能源、半导体、生物制药、纺织服装也将半年报前后的趋势性机会。受制于疫情的反复，博彩板块的复苏尚需时日，预计Q4才有较为明显的机会。\n\n五、风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n\n本文选编自“学恒的海外观察”，作者：王学恒；智通财经编辑：庄礼佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"02833":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158951130,"gmtCreate":1625125419820,"gmtModify":1703736620924,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158951130","repostId":"1144302321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144302321","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625109902,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144302321?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 11:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Brokerage gold stocks in July are released! Which stocks have received the most roll calls?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144302321","media":"第一财经","summary":"机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n\n6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14","content":"<p><div>The agency pointed out that the index will continue to fluctuate in July. As the mid-term report market unfolds, performance is king, and high prosperity growth is the direction of least resistance. Theme opportunities focus on peak season clues. In June, the A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hot spots of technology stocks ran through the whole month. How to look for opportunities in July? As of June 30th, 14 securities firms announced their monthly investment portfolios for July, involving non-banking, electrical, light industry, machinery, chemical industry, home appliances and other fields. Which stocks have received the most roll calls? According to incomplete statistics, among the \"golden stocks\" lists of various securities firms, the one that has received the most recommendations from institutions is still the \"securities firm Mao\" Oriental Fortune, with a total...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokerage gold stocks in July are released! Which stocks have received the most roll calls?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokerage gold stocks in July are released! Which stocks have received the most roll calls?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The agency pointed out that the index will continue to fluctuate in July. As the mid-term report market unfolds, performance is king, and high prosperity growth is the direction of least resistance. Theme opportunities focus on peak season clues. In June, the A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hot spots of technology stocks ran through the whole month. How to look for opportunities in July? As of June 30th, 14 securities firms announced their monthly investment portfolios for July, involving non-banking, electrical, light industry, machinery, chemical industry, home appliances and other fields. Which stocks have received the most roll calls? According to incomplete statistics, among the \"golden stocks\" lists of various securities firms, the one that has received the most recommendations from institutions is still the \"securities firm Mao\" Oriental Fortune, with a total...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101097403.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144302321","content_text":"机构指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n\n6月A股市场呈现窄幅震荡走势，科技股热点贯穿全月，7月如何寻找机会？截至6月30日，有14家券商公布了7月月度投资组合，涉及非银、电气、轻工、机械、化工、家电等多个领域。\n\n哪些个股收获点名最多？\n据不完全统计，在各家券商的“金股”名单中，获机构推荐次数最多的依旧是“券商茅”东方财富，共获得5家券商的推荐，该股6月月内累计涨3.11%，最新收盘价为32.79元。\n此外，药明康德获得国泰君安、兴业证券、浙商证券3家券商的推荐。该股6月内涨幅明显，达12.62%，最新收盘价为156.59元。\n从涨跌幅来看，获两家及以上券商推荐的个股中，港股爱帝宫涨幅最大，该股6月内大涨65.75%，最新收盘价为1.21港元；跌幅最大的是泸州老窖，6月内跌超14%，报235.94元。\n\n后市怎么走？\n展望后市，券商普遍表示，7月股市将持续震荡，而中报行情将成为市场亮点。\n华金证券指出，7月份扰动增加，震荡恐将加剧，但在海内外流动性预期暂时好转背景下，结构性行情有望延续。\n浙商证券也指出，7月指数将持续震荡，随着中报行情展开，业绩为王，高景气成长是最小阻力方向，主题机会关注旺季线索。\n银河证券认为，7月是中报及中报预告披露期，业绩高增长主导结构性机会。经济金融环境暂维持相对利好权益资产，但是A股市场已反弹至高位，增量资金进场缓慢，后续需谨慎追涨，适当降低预期。\n西南证券也认为，经过前期的快速上涨，同时随着中报陆陆续续公布，中报行情有望迎来业绩兑现期，需要适当转向防御，以巩固前期的上涨成果。\n哪些行业最受青睐？\n配置方向上，券商依旧看好顺周期板块未来行情，计算机、医药、新能源等成长板块也受到券商关注，此外，关注中报业绩高增长主线。\n开源证券研报指出，周期股的重定价时刻正在来临，当投资者认识到供给约束的持续性与通胀并非短期，那么在业绩持续验证下，周期股的长期盈利能力将在全市场内显得极具性价比。同时，环境的变化也正在扭转高杠杆经营公司长期的不利地位。开始重新把前期回调较多，受到市场约束较多的成长型周期股纳入到推荐中。\n兴业证券研报称，成长仍是主旋律但是要立足性价比，中报行情可布局绩优股。成长板块围绕4条主线，找长期性价比合适的机会：\n\n 1、AIoT（计算机、通信、电子）；\n\n\n 2、医药（医疗器械、医疗服务）；\n\n\n 3、新能源链条（新能源材料、锂电设备、汽车、智能驾驶）；\n\n\n 4、高端制造设备（半导体设备、军工）。\n\n同时，兴业证券强调，中报行情不容忽视，如机械、军工、化工、交运等行业的绩优股。\n银河证券也认为，景气度向上、中报业绩高增长是主线：关注需求强劲的上游周期品；医疗美容、化妆品、智能家电等消费升级主题；产业数字化、碳中和等国家战略方向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158951946,"gmtCreate":1625125400685,"gmtModify":1703736620758,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9b8f75db4c14f22597f42cb3752e117","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584066196704033","idStr":"3584066196704033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158951946","repostId":"1169437088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169437088","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625123508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169437088?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 15:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview: Traditional Chinese medicine welcomes the fiercest stimulation! The stock price of \"Moutai in Medicine\" doubled in 12 days","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169437088","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"A股\nA股三大指数今日震荡整理，最终沪指微幅收跌0.07%，收报3588.78点；深证成指下跌0.81%，收报15038.88点；创业板指下跌0.63%，收报3455.36点。两市成交额超过一万亿元，","content":"<p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The three major A-share indexes fluctuated and consolidated today, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly down 0.07% to close at 3588.78 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.81% to close at 15038.88 points; The ChiNext Index fell 0.63% to close at 3455.36 points. The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan, and the industry sector rose less and fell more. Chinese medicine concept stocks set off a wave of daily limit, with aerospace military industry, Hongmeng concept, and brokerage sectors leading the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7391c66e88ae128ca2e5ca63451b16\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Today, the traditional Chinese medicine sector took off collectively, with more than 10 stocks rising by more than 10%. On the news, on June 30, the National Health and Medical Commission issued the \"Opinions on Further Strengthening the Work of Traditional Chinese Medicine in General Hospitals to Promote the Coordinated Development of Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine.\" Judging from the content of the notice, the stimulus to traditional Chinese medicine and traditional Chinese medicine may exceed the strength of many previous policies.</b></p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the same daily limit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600771\">Guangyuyuan</a>, the stock has continued to rise recently. In the last 12 trading days, the stock has risen by 106%. Some analysts believe that Guangyuyuan's recent surge is mainly related to its holding state secret formula and its involvement in the alcohol business. Some investors call it \"Moutai in Medicine\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673b761f750752a91da7ff36533412e0\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>Due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland, Hong Kong stocks are closed today.</p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The three major U.S. stock index futures rose. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.25%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.01%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8742c33b64a185476056e71d5ee3d2c\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Most major European indexes rose. As of press time, the German DAX index rose 0.73%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.84%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.90%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.89%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa65062916054527ea68944119e63f8\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>International oil prices fluctuated and rose. As of press time, WTI crude oil was trading at US $73.85 per barrel, up 0.52%; Brent oil is now trading at $74.93 a barrel, up 0.42%.</p><p>International oil prices traded sideways, as investors waited for major oil-producing countries to make a decision on whether to maintain or relax supply in the second half of the year. The market predicts that the gap between supply and demand is expected to widen in the second half of the year. The target level of NYMEX crude oil is looking at $75.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/496dae289a2fe780fd1e0bba5f9b62f5\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23e8677d6b7739357c74ffabf3943be\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>International gold rose slightly, rising 0.33% on the day to $1,777.5 per ounce.</p><p>The international gold price rose and may rebound to $1,789 in the short term. However, the US Dollar Index set a new high since April 7 to 92.483, limiting the rebound momentum of gold prices. Investors are waiting for tomorrow's upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report to understand its impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e7b514480769d9ec3b5cea50e6ad02\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview: Traditional Chinese medicine welcomes the fiercest stimulation! The stock price of \"Moutai in Medicine\" doubled in 12 days</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview: Traditional Chinese medicine welcomes the fiercest stimulation! The stock price of \"Moutai in Medicine\" doubled in 12 days\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 15:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>The three major A-share indexes fluctuated and consolidated today, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly down 0.07% to close at 3588.78 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.81% to close at 15038.88 points; The ChiNext Index fell 0.63% to close at 3455.36 points. The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan, and the industry sector rose less and fell more. Chinese medicine concept stocks set off a wave of daily limit, with aerospace military industry, Hongmeng concept, and brokerage sectors leading the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7391c66e88ae128ca2e5ca63451b16\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Today, the traditional Chinese medicine sector took off collectively, with more than 10 stocks rising by more than 10%. On the news, on June 30, the National Health and Medical Commission issued the \"Opinions on Further Strengthening the Work of Traditional Chinese Medicine in General Hospitals to Promote the Coordinated Development of Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine.\" Judging from the content of the notice, the stimulus to traditional Chinese medicine and traditional Chinese medicine may exceed the strength of many previous policies.</b></p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the same daily limit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600771\">Guangyuyuan</a>, the stock has continued to rise recently. In the last 12 trading days, the stock has risen by 106%. Some analysts believe that Guangyuyuan's recent surge is mainly related to its holding state secret formula and its involvement in the alcohol business. Some investors call it \"Moutai in Medicine\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673b761f750752a91da7ff36533412e0\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>Due to the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland, Hong Kong stocks are closed today.</p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The three major U.S. stock index futures rose. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.25%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.01%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8742c33b64a185476056e71d5ee3d2c\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>European stocks</b></p><p>Most major European indexes rose. As of press time, the German DAX index rose 0.73%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.84%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.90%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.89%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa65062916054527ea68944119e63f8\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>International oil prices fluctuated and rose. As of press time, WTI crude oil was trading at US $73.85 per barrel, up 0.52%; Brent oil is now trading at $74.93 a barrel, up 0.42%.</p><p>International oil prices traded sideways, as investors waited for major oil-producing countries to make a decision on whether to maintain or relax supply in the second half of the year. The market predicts that the gap between supply and demand is expected to widen in the second half of the year. The target level of NYMEX crude oil is looking at $75.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/496dae289a2fe780fd1e0bba5f9b62f5\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23e8677d6b7739357c74ffabf3943be\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>International gold rose slightly, rising 0.33% on the day to $1,777.5 per ounce.</p><p>The international gold price rose and may rebound to $1,789 in the short term. However, the US Dollar Index set a new high since April 7 to 92.483, limiting the rebound momentum of gold prices. Investors are waiting for tomorrow's upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report to understand its impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e7b514480769d9ec3b5cea50e6ad02\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","600519":"贵州茅台","HSCEI":"国企指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169437088","content_text":"A股\nA股三大指数今日震荡整理，最终沪指微幅收跌0.07%，收报3588.78点；深证成指下跌0.81%，收报15038.88点；创业板指下跌0.63%，收报3455.36点。两市成交额超过一万亿元，行业板块涨少跌多，中药概念股掀起涨停潮，航天军工、鸿蒙概念、券商板块领跌。\n\n今日中药板块集体起飞，10余只个股涨超10%。消息面上，6月30日，国家卫健委发布《关于进一步加强综合医院中医药工作推动中西医协同发展的意见》。从通知内容来看，对于中医和中药的刺激程度可能超过以往许多政策的力度。\n值得一提的是同样涨停的广誉远，该股近期持续拉升，最近12个交易日，该股累计上涨106%，有分析认为，广誉远近期大涨主要与其手握国家保密配方，同时涉足酒类业务有关。有投资者称其为“药中茅台”。\n\n港股\n因香港回归纪念日，港股今日休市。\n美股\n美国三大股指期货走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.25%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.01%；标普500指数期货涨0.20%。\n\n欧股\n欧洲主要指数多数上涨，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.73%，英国富时100指数涨0.84%，法国CAC40指数涨0.90%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.89%。\n\n原油\n国际油价震荡上扬，截止发稿，WTI原油报73.85美元/桶，涨0.52%；布油现报74.93美元/桶，涨0.42%。\n国际油价横盘整理，投资者等待主要产油国就下半年是维持还是放宽供应作出决定。市场预测，下半年供需缺口料将扩大。NYMEX原油上放目标位看向75.57美元。\n\n黄金\n国际黄金小幅上涨，日内涨0.33%，报1777.5美元/盎司。\n国际金价上涨，短线或反弹至1789美元。但美元指数刷新4月7日以来高位至92.483，限制了金价反弹势头。投资者等待明天即将公布的美国非农就业报告，以期了解其对美联储货币政策的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"600519":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}