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- Fancy_1248Fancy_1248
  ·2021-06-24
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  After "scraping bones to cure poison", the long-term value of these star stocks gradually emerged
  摘要自今年2月中旬以来，港股市场的大型科网股走势显著承压，主要受平台经济监管措施逐步收紧、全球范围内“宅经济”红利减退和美债收益率走高等三大因素所制约。不过，站在2021年年中的时间点上来看，上述的
  After "scraping bones to cure poison", the long-term value of these star stocks gradually emerged
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However, from the perspective of mid-2021, the negative impact brought by the above three major unfavorable factors is marginally decreasing.<b>The long-term layout value of Hong Kong's large technology and Internet stocks is gradually emerging</b>：</p><p><b>1. The anti-monopoly policy \"scrapes bones and cures poison\", the short-term negative impact is controllable, and it will help enhance the vitality of the industry in the long run. With the implementation of Ali's penalties, policy uncertainty has also declined.</b></p><p>Stricter supervision will certainly bring pain, but anti-monopoly does not essentially mean anti-platform economy. In the long run, it will help enhance the innovation vitality of the science and technology network industry, further enhance the competitiveness and competitiveness of large enterprises, especially platform enterprises, and promote the transformation of China's science and technology network industry from the old model driven by traffic and business model to the technology-driven and product-driven model. In addition, the implementation of Ali's rectification \"boots\" has objectively alleviated the previous concerns in the market that platform companies may be split, and also provided a basis for estimating the penalties and methods that other large technology and network companies may face in the future. A referential basis.</p><p><b>2. Despite the gradual ebb of the global stay-at-home economy, the performance of large technology and Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks is still highly resilient, and their growth potential is still in the process of continuous release.</b></p><p>China's Internet giants have established excellent business models, huge user bases and good user experience, and their competitive advantages are difficult to subvert. In the first quarter of this year, the performance of Hong Kong stock technology and Internet giants was basically within market expectations, and some even exceeded expectations, showing that industry growth is still resilient despite multiple adverse effects. Looking forward to the future, although the dividends of the epidemic are gradually fading, the dividends of economic transformation are still in the process of continuous release. The development prospects of the science and technology industry are still very broad. Leading companies rely on stable and efficient business models and good corporate governance. will benefit significantly.</p><p><b>3. Large technology and Internet stocks have fully responded to the rise in U.S. bond yields, and subsequent pressure has declined.</b></p><p>Since mid-February, with the rise in U.S. bond yields, the trend of the Hang Seng Technology Index has been falling all the way, basically giving up all the gains since global risk appetite improved in November last year. The turnover concentration of the new economic sector has also declined significantly. The weekly turnover of the top 2% stocks has decreased by more than 100 billion compared with the peak, among which the largest decline is large science and technology stocks.</p><p>From a vertical perspective, the current valuation level of Hong Kong stock technology and network giants has basically fallen below the historical average, and they have regained a good investment cost performance and a relatively sufficient margin of safety. From a horizontal perspective, the Hang Seng Technology Index has the largest adjustment among the \"Three Masters of the New Economy\" (technology, biomedicine, and new consumption) in Hong Kong stocks, and its performance is far less than that of US stocks and A-share technology companies.</p><p>As global inflation expectations stabilize after entering the top area and reflation trading ebbs, the pressure faced by technology and Internet giants in the second half of the year will be less than that in the first half of the year. Even if U.S. bond yields once again enter a moderate upward trend, the market has fully expected this, and the reaction slope of large technology and Internet stocks may blunt the margins.</p><p><b>Risk warning: U.S. bond yields rise more than expected, inflation rises more than expected, and global markets fluctuate violently</b></p><p><b>Since mid-February this year, the trend of large-scale technology and Internet stocks in the Hong Kong stock market has been under significant pressure, mainly due to three major factors: the gradual tightening of regulatory measures on the platform economy, the decline in dividends from the \"stay-at-home economy\" worldwide, and the rise in U.S. bond yields. restricted</b>：</p><p><b>1. The mainland has gradually tightened regulatory measures for the platform economy.</b>For a long time before, the development of China's Internet followed the model of \"crossing the river by feeling the stones\", and the supervision adopted a prudent and inclusive attitude, giving science and technology enterprises sufficient space to innovate and explore their business models. After several years of \"barbaric growth\", at present, large science and technology enterprises have basically established mature business models, and the influence of their behaviors on the market is increasing day by day. Therefore, it has become the proper meaning to bring science and technology enterprises, especially platform-based Internet enterprises with a wide audience, into a stricter and standardized supervision system, and \"strengthen anti-monopoly and prevent the disorderly expansion of capital\".</p><p>At present, this round of anti-monopoly supervision is still in the process of continuous advancement: on February 7, the \"Anti-monopoly Guidelines of the Anti-monopoly Committee of the State Council on the Platform Economy Field\" was officially implemented, which clarified the standards for identifying monopoly and punishment methods, and improved the rules and regulations of anti-monopoly supervision; On April 10, the State Administration for Market Regulation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>A fine of 18.2 billion yuan was imposed, and guidance on comprehensive rectification was put forward, forming the first case of this round of anti-monopoly supervision; On April 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation launched an investigation into Meituan's suspected monopolistic behaviors such as \"choosing one of the two\" in accordance with the law. We expect that all platform Internet companies will be involved in anti-monopoly regulatory investigations. Objectively speaking, the tightening of regulatory measures in the short term will increase the operating costs of large science and technology enterprises, relatively reduce their liquidity, and restrict the release of performance to some extent.</p><p>On the other hand, anti-monopoly will also prompt science and technology giants to increase the development of new tracks where competition is not too fierce and the degree of \"involution\" is relatively low, in order to seek new business growth points-in recent performance At the meeting, Ali and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>It has successively announced that the incremental part of profits will be used for reinvestment, and in the future, the emphasis on performance growth will be higher than profit growth. Generally speaking, under the background that China's science and technology industry has generally entered a new round of large-scale investment, the profit side of Bottom Line of large enterprises will be suppressed in the short term, and the imagination space will be limited, which will also affect the overall valuation level.</p><p><b>2. The dividend of the \"stay-at-home economy\" worldwide is declining.</b>The outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 has profoundly changed people's lifestyle. Home life/office/entertainment has become the mainstream demand, driving the penetration rate of the Internet to continue to increase, and bringing \"epidemic dividends\" to science and technology companies. With the increase of vaccination rate, the relaxation of social restrictions, and the normalization of life, offline consumption and service scenarios have been reopened, and online dividends have shown signs of gradual decline. The high base effect brought about by the increase in income in the same period last year has become a \"burden\" to some extent. Therefore, after February this year, investors were worried that the high growth of global technology and Internet companies in the post-epidemic era would be unsustainable, which dragged down the growth stocks in all major markets to adjust significantly, and also had a negative driving effect on the trend of large technology and Internet stocks in Hong Kong.</p><p><b>3. Higher U.S. bond yields put pressure on it.</b>As the prospects for economic recovery become clearer, the progress of universal vaccination is good, and the United States has successively implemented new stimulus bills, the market has begun to bet on a substantial economic recovery, driving real interest rates to rise significantly. In addition, the contradiction between supply and demand of commodities represented by copper, iron, and aluminum has become increasingly prominent, and inflation expectations have also begun to heat up. Together, these two push up the nominal yield of U.S. bonds (which can be split into real interest rate + inflation expectations). Since large technology and Internet stocks as a whole are still biased towards a growth style, the increase in U.S. bond yields has constrained the trend of stock prices from two aspects:</p><p>(1) As a representative of global risk-free interest rates, U.S. bond yields are an important component of the denominator-side discount rate in the DDM model. Therefore, the increase in U.S. bond yields will have a negative impact on asset valuations, which is particularly evident in growth stocks that rely on forward cash flows and have a large number of discounted periods. Previously, at the peak of the epidemic, all developed economies implemented zero-interest policies, which compressed the discount rate to a small level. The adverse result of this excessive easing was the prices of various assets (especially growth categories) It is highly sensitive to U.S. bond yields-even a small increase or even a slight change in expectations will put greater downward pressure on stock prices.</p><p>(2) In addition, the borrowing cost of society is usually linked to the benchmark interest rate. In 2020, in the face of an unprecedented low-interest environment, the willingness of various entities to borrow has increased significantly, and the scale of global bond issuance has also set a historical record. The rise in U.S. bond yields implies expectations for future tightening of funds (the Federal Reserve cuts QE) and an increase in benchmark interest rates (the Federal Reserve gradually rate hike), which also means that corporate financing costs will rise accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b362145824b4c74b7ed5ab7d8d61769\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400358a12c5377f45dc98af64b37abb0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/154a7abf831ee3cbcd3c460718068699\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe72b2c87df57f3b5ab148d36fcc476d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a8568be7e1425d738e6bb01d02ca589\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the time point in mid-2021,<b>The negative impact of the above three unfavorable factors on large science and technology enterprises is declining marginally</b>：</p><p><b>1. The anti-monopoly policy \"scrapes bones and cures poison\", the short-term negative impact is controllable, and it will help enhance the vitality of the industry in the long run. With the implementation of Ali's penalties, policy uncertainty has also declined.</b></p><p>Stricter regulatory policies will certainly bring short-term pain, but in fact, anti-monopoly does not essentially mean anti-platform economy, let alone anti-Internet. In the long run, it will help enhance the innovation vitality of the science and technology industry, further enhance the competitiveness and growth of large enterprises, especially platform-based enterprises, and also promote the transformation of China's science and technology industry from the old model driven by traffic and business model to technology-driven and product-driven.</p><p>In fact, with the increasing progress of the technology and network industry, strengthening the supervision of giant companies is a general trend on a global scale. Developed countries in Europe and the United States have<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Anti-monopoly investigations and penalties carried out by large science and technology companies such as Facebook and Facebook have long existed. After review's punishment, the fundamentals of several major science and technology companies continue to improve, and the trend of \"bullish\" stock prices has not changed.</p><p>In addition, the implementation of Alibaba's rectification \"boots\" in April objectively alleviated the previous concerns in the market that platform companies might be split, and also provided a reference basis for estimating the penalties and methods that other large technology and network companies may face in the future.</p><p>In terms of the development of new businesses, although science and technology giants have put forward measures to increase investment by sacrificing profit growth, in fact, the book funds of major enterprises are relatively sufficient at present. In the \"Cash and Cash Equivalents\" column that reflects the available funds, Ali has more than 320 billion Hong Kong dollars in funds, and Tencent also has 150 billion Hong Kong dollars. The game and electric vehicle companies with a large amount of upfront investment have reached the time when they can be realized, which is enough to support future \"Burning money\" war. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the financial pressure brought by expansionary investment to enterprises for the time being, and the value of new business is the focus of more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec2c33e0354e618c27a307f44c3c717\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc508da6f1457d275bce2e8776ea7a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Despite the gradual ebb of the global stay-at-home economy, the performance of large technology and Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks is still highly resilient, and their growth potential is still in the process of continuous release.</b></p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the performance of Hong Kong stock technology and Internet giants was basically within the range expected by the market (Tencent, Ali), and some even exceeded expectations (Meituan, Xiaomi). This shows that even if it is affected and hit by multiple unfavorable factors, the growth of China's science and technology industry still has full resilience and huge potential.</p><p>In fact, each leading enterprise has established a stable and efficient business model in the early stage, attracting a large number of user groups in their respective segments, creating a wide enough \"moat\", and its competitive advantage is difficult to subvert. Even if offline activities recover after the epidemic, the trend of online transformation of quite a few industries and activities has been difficult to reverse. When the usage habits of 2B-end enterprises and 2C-end consumers are finalized, higher user stickiness will continue to provide support for the growth of science and technology enterprises.</p><p>From a global perspective, the \"time machine theory\" describing the development of the Internet has developed from China's past learning from the Western \"Copyto China\" to China's reverse export of \"Copy from China\", such as the \"American version of Meituan\" DoorDash, the first American food delivery stock, \"US version<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>\"Wish and\" Southeast Asia Little Tencent \"Sea, etc. From the imitation of foreign enterprises, it can be seen that at present, China's science and technology enterprises are in the forefront of the world in the innovation of specific technologies and business models. In addition, China's science and technology giants generally have corporate governance capabilities that are in line with the international advanced level.</p><p>Looking forward to the future, although the dividends of the epidemic are gradually fading, the dividends of economic transformation are still in the process of continuous release. The development prospects of the science and technology industry are still very broad-business models such as community group buying and live broadcast e-commerce are in the ascendant, and the Internet of Things/The vigorous development of enterprise Internet and overseas markets provides more room for imagination, and the continuous iteration in the old economy and the development of various \"new gameplay\" and subdivided/sinking markets can also bring new sources of incremental profits.<b>Generally speaking, the journey of Hong Kong stock technology giants is still a \"sea of stars\"</b>。</p><p><b>3. Large technology and Internet stocks have fully responded to the rise in U.S. bond yields, and subsequent pressure has declined.</b></p><p>Since mid-February, with the rise in U.S. bond yields, the trend of Hong Kong stocks has been under significant pressure. Among them, the Hang Seng Technology Index has \"borne the brunt\" and the trend has been declining all the way, basically giving up all the gains since the improvement of global risk appetite in November last year. In addition, we also pointed out in \"The Current Microstructure of Hong Kong Stocks has Returned to the Normal Range\" that the transaction concentration of the new economic sector has also declined significantly, and the weekly turnover of the top 2% stocks has decreased by more than 100 billion compared with the peak, among which the largest decline is large science and technology stocks.</p><p>From a vertical perspective, pullback/retracement, which has been nearly 30% since its high point, has squeezed out a considerable part of the bubbles existing in the science and technology sector, and the decline in position concentration has also alleviated the \"excessive grouping\" phenomenon of large science and technology stocks in the early stage. At present<b>The valuation levels of various Internet giants have basically fallen below the historical average, and they have regained good investment cost performance and a relatively sufficient margin of safety</b>。</p><p>From a horizontal perspective, among the \"three masters of the new economy\" (i.e. technology, biomedicine, and new consumption) that were most favored by investors in the Hong Kong stock market in the early stage, technology and Internet stocks had the largest adjustment: the liberalization of the child policy, the rise of the medical beauty boom, and the successive driven by sub-sectors such as unprofitable biotechnology Class B stocks and medical devices have recovered the lost ground after February and returned to historical highs. There has been significant differentiation within the new consumer sector, and some industries have encountered a fierce wave of \"killing valuations\", such as sub-sectors facing greater policy uncertainty (such as e-cigarettes and education), and changes in growth logic. Industries that are unfavorably changed/difficult to be self-consistent (such as catering industry), etc.; However, some high-quality and scarce sub-sectors (such as sportswear) have benefited from multiple benefits and continue to strengthen. Therefore,<b>At present, among the three major new economic sectors of Hong Kong stocks, the valuation attractiveness of technology and Internet stocks, which have undergone large adjustments in the early stage and have not yet seen a significant rebound, is more prominent</b>。</p><p>In addition to underperforming within the Hong Kong stock market, the performance of Hong Kong technology and Internet stocks this year has also been far lower than that of U.S. stocks and A-share technology companies. Due to the typical offshore characteristics of Hong Kong stocks, they reacted most violently to liquidity withdrawal during the rise in U.S. bond yields, which seriously dragged down the performance of large technology and Internet stocks that were most favored by early funds. According to Bloomberg, adjusting the impact of last year's low base, the PEG of the Hang Seng Technology Index calculated based on the profit growth rate in the next two years is about 0.98 times, while the PEG of the Nasdaq Composite Index is as high as 1.86 times, and the PEG of the ChiNext Index is as high as 1.86 times. The index is also 1.64 times. Therefore,<b>In the future, the convergence of cross-market \"valuation differences\" is also expected to become the supporting momentum for the strength of Hong Kong stock technology and Internet giants</b>。</p><p>Since May, global inflation expectations have stabilized after entering the top area, reflation trading has ebbed, and U.S. bond yields have fluctuated and weakened. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the combination of \"rising real interest rates + weakening inflation expectations\" may continue, so the pressure faced by science and technology giants will be less than that in the first half of the year. In fact, even if U.S. bond yields enter a moderate upward trend, the market has fully expected that the reaction slope of large technology and Internet stocks may passivate the margins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93d7a2323813768d4cd1a04eaefa758\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d480c3185111dd34bc79c232e491f472\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eccc203861b2d65579a847a0d2b1643b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1d5928306ee646ae4db64f6441c0dc0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning: U.S. bond yields rise more than expected, inflation rises more than expected, and global markets fluctuate violently</b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After \"scraping bones to cure poison\", the long-term value of these star stocks gradually emerged</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter \"scraping bones to cure poison\", the long-term value of these star stocks gradually emerged\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Since mid-February this year, the trend of large-scale technology and Internet stocks in the Hong Kong stock market has been under significant pressure, mainly restricted by three major factors: the gradual tightening of regulatory measures on the platform economy, the decline of dividends from the \"stay-at-home economy\" worldwide, and the rise in U.S. bond yields. However, from the perspective of mid-2021, the negative impact brought by the above three major unfavorable factors is marginally decreasing.<b>The long-term layout value of Hong Kong's large technology and Internet stocks is gradually emerging</b>：</p><p><b>1. The anti-monopoly policy \"scrapes bones and cures poison\", the short-term negative impact is controllable, and it will help enhance the vitality of the industry in the long run. With the implementation of Ali's penalties, policy uncertainty has also declined.</b></p><p>Stricter supervision will certainly bring pain, but anti-monopoly does not essentially mean anti-platform economy. In the long run, it will help enhance the innovation vitality of the science and technology network industry, further enhance the competitiveness and competitiveness of large enterprises, especially platform enterprises, and promote the transformation of China's science and technology network industry from the old model driven by traffic and business model to the technology-driven and product-driven model. In addition, the implementation of Ali's rectification \"boots\" has objectively alleviated the previous concerns in the market that platform companies may be split, and also provided a basis for estimating the penalties and methods that other large technology and network companies may face in the future. A referential basis.</p><p><b>2. Despite the gradual ebb of the global stay-at-home economy, the performance of large technology and Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks is still highly resilient, and their growth potential is still in the process of continuous release.</b></p><p>China's Internet giants have established excellent business models, huge user bases and good user experience, and their competitive advantages are difficult to subvert. In the first quarter of this year, the performance of Hong Kong stock technology and Internet giants was basically within market expectations, and some even exceeded expectations, showing that industry growth is still resilient despite multiple adverse effects. Looking forward to the future, although the dividends of the epidemic are gradually fading, the dividends of economic transformation are still in the process of continuous release. The development prospects of the science and technology industry are still very broad. Leading companies rely on stable and efficient business models and good corporate governance. will benefit significantly.</p><p><b>3. Large technology and Internet stocks have fully responded to the rise in U.S. bond yields, and subsequent pressure has declined.</b></p><p>Since mid-February, with the rise in U.S. bond yields, the trend of the Hang Seng Technology Index has been falling all the way, basically giving up all the gains since global risk appetite improved in November last year. The turnover concentration of the new economic sector has also declined significantly. The weekly turnover of the top 2% stocks has decreased by more than 100 billion compared with the peak, among which the largest decline is large science and technology stocks.</p><p>From a vertical perspective, the current valuation level of Hong Kong stock technology and network giants has basically fallen below the historical average, and they have regained a good investment cost performance and a relatively sufficient margin of safety. From a horizontal perspective, the Hang Seng Technology Index has the largest adjustment among the \"Three Masters of the New Economy\" (technology, biomedicine, and new consumption) in Hong Kong stocks, and its performance is far less than that of US stocks and A-share technology companies.</p><p>As global inflation expectations stabilize after entering the top area and reflation trading ebbs, the pressure faced by technology and Internet giants in the second half of the year will be less than that in the first half of the year. Even if U.S. bond yields once again enter a moderate upward trend, the market has fully expected this, and the reaction slope of large technology and Internet stocks may blunt the margins.</p><p><b>Risk warning: U.S. bond yields rise more than expected, inflation rises more than expected, and global markets fluctuate violently</b></p><p><b>Since mid-February this year, the trend of large-scale technology and Internet stocks in the Hong Kong stock market has been under significant pressure, mainly due to three major factors: the gradual tightening of regulatory measures on the platform economy, the decline in dividends from the \"stay-at-home economy\" worldwide, and the rise in U.S. bond yields. restricted</b>：</p><p><b>1. The mainland has gradually tightened regulatory measures for the platform economy.</b>For a long time before, the development of China's Internet followed the model of \"crossing the river by feeling the stones\", and the supervision adopted a prudent and inclusive attitude, giving science and technology enterprises sufficient space to innovate and explore their business models. After several years of \"barbaric growth\", at present, large science and technology enterprises have basically established mature business models, and the influence of their behaviors on the market is increasing day by day. Therefore, it has become the proper meaning to bring science and technology enterprises, especially platform-based Internet enterprises with a wide audience, into a stricter and standardized supervision system, and \"strengthen anti-monopoly and prevent the disorderly expansion of capital\".</p><p>At present, this round of anti-monopoly supervision is still in the process of continuous advancement: on February 7, the \"Anti-monopoly Guidelines of the Anti-monopoly Committee of the State Council on the Platform Economy Field\" was officially implemented, which clarified the standards for identifying monopoly and punishment methods, and improved the rules and regulations of anti-monopoly supervision; On April 10, the State Administration for Market Regulation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>A fine of 18.2 billion yuan was imposed, and guidance on comprehensive rectification was put forward, forming the first case of this round of anti-monopoly supervision; On April 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation launched an investigation into Meituan's suspected monopolistic behaviors such as \"choosing one of the two\" in accordance with the law. We expect that all platform Internet companies will be involved in anti-monopoly regulatory investigations. Objectively speaking, the tightening of regulatory measures in the short term will increase the operating costs of large science and technology enterprises, relatively reduce their liquidity, and restrict the release of performance to some extent.</p><p>On the other hand, anti-monopoly will also prompt science and technology giants to increase the development of new tracks where competition is not too fierce and the degree of \"involution\" is relatively low, in order to seek new business growth points-in recent performance At the meeting, Ali and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>It has successively announced that the incremental part of profits will be used for reinvestment, and in the future, the emphasis on performance growth will be higher than profit growth. Generally speaking, under the background that China's science and technology industry has generally entered a new round of large-scale investment, the profit side of Bottom Line of large enterprises will be suppressed in the short term, and the imagination space will be limited, which will also affect the overall valuation level.</p><p><b>2. The dividend of the \"stay-at-home economy\" worldwide is declining.</b>The outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 has profoundly changed people's lifestyle. Home life/office/entertainment has become the mainstream demand, driving the penetration rate of the Internet to continue to increase, and bringing \"epidemic dividends\" to science and technology companies. With the increase of vaccination rate, the relaxation of social restrictions, and the normalization of life, offline consumption and service scenarios have been reopened, and online dividends have shown signs of gradual decline. The high base effect brought about by the increase in income in the same period last year has become a \"burden\" to some extent. Therefore, after February this year, investors were worried that the high growth of global technology and Internet companies in the post-epidemic era would be unsustainable, which dragged down the growth stocks in all major markets to adjust significantly, and also had a negative driving effect on the trend of large technology and Internet stocks in Hong Kong.</p><p><b>3. Higher U.S. bond yields put pressure on it.</b>As the prospects for economic recovery become clearer, the progress of universal vaccination is good, and the United States has successively implemented new stimulus bills, the market has begun to bet on a substantial economic recovery, driving real interest rates to rise significantly. In addition, the contradiction between supply and demand of commodities represented by copper, iron, and aluminum has become increasingly prominent, and inflation expectations have also begun to heat up. Together, these two push up the nominal yield of U.S. bonds (which can be split into real interest rate + inflation expectations). Since large technology and Internet stocks as a whole are still biased towards a growth style, the increase in U.S. bond yields has constrained the trend of stock prices from two aspects:</p><p>(1) As a representative of global risk-free interest rates, U.S. bond yields are an important component of the denominator-side discount rate in the DDM model. Therefore, the increase in U.S. bond yields will have a negative impact on asset valuations, which is particularly evident in growth stocks that rely on forward cash flows and have a large number of discounted periods. Previously, at the peak of the epidemic, all developed economies implemented zero-interest policies, which compressed the discount rate to a small level. The adverse result of this excessive easing was the prices of various assets (especially growth categories) It is highly sensitive to U.S. bond yields-even a small increase or even a slight change in expectations will put greater downward pressure on stock prices.</p><p>(2) In addition, the borrowing cost of society is usually linked to the benchmark interest rate. In 2020, in the face of an unprecedented low-interest environment, the willingness of various entities to borrow has increased significantly, and the scale of global bond issuance has also set a historical record. The rise in U.S. bond yields implies expectations for future tightening of funds (the Federal Reserve cuts QE) and an increase in benchmark interest rates (the Federal Reserve gradually rate hike), which also means that corporate financing costs will rise accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b362145824b4c74b7ed5ab7d8d61769\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400358a12c5377f45dc98af64b37abb0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/154a7abf831ee3cbcd3c460718068699\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe72b2c87df57f3b5ab148d36fcc476d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a8568be7e1425d738e6bb01d02ca589\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the time point in mid-2021,<b>The negative impact of the above three unfavorable factors on large science and technology enterprises is declining marginally</b>：</p><p><b>1. The anti-monopoly policy \"scrapes bones and cures poison\", the short-term negative impact is controllable, and it will help enhance the vitality of the industry in the long run. With the implementation of Ali's penalties, policy uncertainty has also declined.</b></p><p>Stricter regulatory policies will certainly bring short-term pain, but in fact, anti-monopoly does not essentially mean anti-platform economy, let alone anti-Internet. In the long run, it will help enhance the innovation vitality of the science and technology industry, further enhance the competitiveness and growth of large enterprises, especially platform-based enterprises, and also promote the transformation of China's science and technology industry from the old model driven by traffic and business model to technology-driven and product-driven.</p><p>In fact, with the increasing progress of the technology and network industry, strengthening the supervision of giant companies is a general trend on a global scale. Developed countries in Europe and the United States have<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Anti-monopoly investigations and penalties carried out by large science and technology companies such as Facebook and Facebook have long existed. After review's punishment, the fundamentals of several major science and technology companies continue to improve, and the trend of \"bullish\" stock prices has not changed.</p><p>In addition, the implementation of Alibaba's rectification \"boots\" in April objectively alleviated the previous concerns in the market that platform companies might be split, and also provided a reference basis for estimating the penalties and methods that other large technology and network companies may face in the future.</p><p>In terms of the development of new businesses, although science and technology giants have put forward measures to increase investment by sacrificing profit growth, in fact, the book funds of major enterprises are relatively sufficient at present. In the \"Cash and Cash Equivalents\" column that reflects the available funds, Ali has more than 320 billion Hong Kong dollars in funds, and Tencent also has 150 billion Hong Kong dollars. The game and electric vehicle companies with a large amount of upfront investment have reached the time when they can be realized, which is enough to support future \"Burning money\" war. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the financial pressure brought by expansionary investment to enterprises for the time being, and the value of new business is the focus of more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec2c33e0354e618c27a307f44c3c717\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc508da6f1457d275bce2e8776ea7a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Despite the gradual ebb of the global stay-at-home economy, the performance of large technology and Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks is still highly resilient, and their growth potential is still in the process of continuous release.</b></p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the performance of Hong Kong stock technology and Internet giants was basically within the range expected by the market (Tencent, Ali), and some even exceeded expectations (Meituan, Xiaomi). This shows that even if it is affected and hit by multiple unfavorable factors, the growth of China's science and technology industry still has full resilience and huge potential.</p><p>In fact, each leading enterprise has established a stable and efficient business model in the early stage, attracting a large number of user groups in their respective segments, creating a wide enough \"moat\", and its competitive advantage is difficult to subvert. Even if offline activities recover after the epidemic, the trend of online transformation of quite a few industries and activities has been difficult to reverse. When the usage habits of 2B-end enterprises and 2C-end consumers are finalized, higher user stickiness will continue to provide support for the growth of science and technology enterprises.</p><p>From a global perspective, the \"time machine theory\" describing the development of the Internet has developed from China's past learning from the Western \"Copyto China\" to China's reverse export of \"Copy from China\", such as the \"American version of Meituan\" DoorDash, the first American food delivery stock, \"US version<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>\"Wish and\" Southeast Asia Little Tencent \"Sea, etc. From the imitation of foreign enterprises, it can be seen that at present, China's science and technology enterprises are in the forefront of the world in the innovation of specific technologies and business models. In addition, China's science and technology giants generally have corporate governance capabilities that are in line with the international advanced level.</p><p>Looking forward to the future, although the dividends of the epidemic are gradually fading, the dividends of economic transformation are still in the process of continuous release. The development prospects of the science and technology industry are still very broad-business models such as community group buying and live broadcast e-commerce are in the ascendant, and the Internet of Things/The vigorous development of enterprise Internet and overseas markets provides more room for imagination, and the continuous iteration in the old economy and the development of various \"new gameplay\" and subdivided/sinking markets can also bring new sources of incremental profits.<b>Generally speaking, the journey of Hong Kong stock technology giants is still a \"sea of stars\"</b>。</p><p><b>3. Large technology and Internet stocks have fully responded to the rise in U.S. bond yields, and subsequent pressure has declined.</b></p><p>Since mid-February, with the rise in U.S. bond yields, the trend of Hong Kong stocks has been under significant pressure. Among them, the Hang Seng Technology Index has \"borne the brunt\" and the trend has been declining all the way, basically giving up all the gains since the improvement of global risk appetite in November last year. In addition, we also pointed out in \"The Current Microstructure of Hong Kong Stocks has Returned to the Normal Range\" that the transaction concentration of the new economic sector has also declined significantly, and the weekly turnover of the top 2% stocks has decreased by more than 100 billion compared with the peak, among which the largest decline is large science and technology stocks.</p><p>From a vertical perspective, pullback/retracement, which has been nearly 30% since its high point, has squeezed out a considerable part of the bubbles existing in the science and technology sector, and the decline in position concentration has also alleviated the \"excessive grouping\" phenomenon of large science and technology stocks in the early stage. At present<b>The valuation levels of various Internet giants have basically fallen below the historical average, and they have regained good investment cost performance and a relatively sufficient margin of safety</b>。</p><p>From a horizontal perspective, among the \"three masters of the new economy\" (i.e. technology, biomedicine, and new consumption) that were most favored by investors in the Hong Kong stock market in the early stage, technology and Internet stocks had the largest adjustment: the liberalization of the child policy, the rise of the medical beauty boom, and the successive driven by sub-sectors such as unprofitable biotechnology Class B stocks and medical devices have recovered the lost ground after February and returned to historical highs. There has been significant differentiation within the new consumer sector, and some industries have encountered a fierce wave of \"killing valuations\", such as sub-sectors facing greater policy uncertainty (such as e-cigarettes and education), and changes in growth logic. Industries that are unfavorably changed/difficult to be self-consistent (such as catering industry), etc.; However, some high-quality and scarce sub-sectors (such as sportswear) have benefited from multiple benefits and continue to strengthen. Therefore,<b>At present, among the three major new economic sectors of Hong Kong stocks, the valuation attractiveness of technology and Internet stocks, which have undergone large adjustments in the early stage and have not yet seen a significant rebound, is more prominent</b>。</p><p>In addition to underperforming within the Hong Kong stock market, the performance of Hong Kong technology and Internet stocks this year has also been far lower than that of U.S. stocks and A-share technology companies. Due to the typical offshore characteristics of Hong Kong stocks, they reacted most violently to liquidity withdrawal during the rise in U.S. bond yields, which seriously dragged down the performance of large technology and Internet stocks that were most favored by early funds. According to Bloomberg, adjusting the impact of last year's low base, the PEG of the Hang Seng Technology Index calculated based on the profit growth rate in the next two years is about 0.98 times, while the PEG of the Nasdaq Composite Index is as high as 1.86 times, and the PEG of the ChiNext Index is as high as 1.86 times. The index is also 1.64 times. Therefore,<b>In the future, the convergence of cross-market \"valuation differences\" is also expected to become the supporting momentum for the strength of Hong Kong stock technology and Internet giants</b>。</p><p>Since May, global inflation expectations have stabilized after entering the top area, reflation trading has ebbed, and U.S. bond yields have fluctuated and weakened. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the combination of \"rising real interest rates + weakening inflation expectations\" may continue, so the pressure faced by science and technology giants will be less than that in the first half of the year. In fact, even if U.S. bond yields enter a moderate upward trend, the market has fully expected that the reaction slope of large technology and Internet stocks may passivate the margins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93d7a2323813768d4cd1a04eaefa758\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d480c3185111dd34bc79c232e491f472\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eccc203861b2d65579a847a0d2b1643b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1d5928306ee646ae4db64f6441c0dc0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning: U.S. bond yields rise more than expected, inflation rises more than expected, and global markets fluctuate violently</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/471597\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/471597","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2145014690","content_text":"摘要\n自今年2月中旬以来，港股市场的大型科网股走势显著承压，主要受平台经济监管措施逐步收紧、全球范围内“宅经济”红利减退和美债收益率走高等三大因素所制约。不过，站在2021年年中的时间点上来看，上述的三大不利因素所带来的负面影响正在边际减退，香港大型科网股的长线布局价值逐渐浮现：\n1. 反垄断政策“刮骨疗毒”，短期负面影响可控，长期有助于增强行业活力。随着阿里处罚的落地，政策面的不确定性也有所下降。\n趋严的监管固然会带来阵痛，但反垄断本质上并不意味着反平台经济，长期反而有助于提升科网行业的创新活力，进一步增强大型企业、尤其是平台型企业的竞争力和成长性，也推动中国科网行业从流量驱动和商业模式驱动的旧有模式转型为技术驱动和产品驱动。此外，阿里整改“靴子”的落地，客观上缓解了此前市场上存在着的对平台企业可能会被拆分的担忧，也为估算其他大型科网企业未来可能面临的处罚力度和方式方法提供了可参照的依据。\n2. 尽管全球宅经济逐步退潮，港股大型科网公司的业绩仍具备较强韧性，成长潜能仍在持续释放的过程中。\n中国的互联网巨头已经建立起了优秀的商业模式、庞大的用户基数和良好的用户体验，竞争优势难以颠覆。今年一季度，港股科网巨头的业绩基本都处于市场预期内，部分甚至超出预期，显示出在多重不利影响下，行业增长依然具有韧性。展望未来，虽然疫情的红利逐步消退，但经济转型的红利却仍在持续释放的过程之中，科网行业的发展前景仍然十分广阔，各龙头企业凭借着稳健高效的商业模式和良好的公司治理将显著受益。\n3. 大型科网股对美债收益率的上升反应已较为充分，后续压力下降。\n2月中旬以来，伴随着美债收益率的上行，恒生科技指数走势一路下探，基本回吐了自去年11月全球风险偏好改善以来的所有涨幅。新经济板块的成交集中度也出现了显著的下滑，前2%个股的每周成交额已较峰值时减少了逾千亿，其中下滑幅度最大的即为大型科网股。\n纵向来看，目前港股科网巨头的估值水平基本都已回落至历史均值以下，重新具备了良好的投资性价比和较为充足的安全边际。横向来看，恒生科技指数在港股“新经济三杰”（科技、生物医药、新型消费）中调整幅度最大，表现也远不及美股与A股的科技企业。\n由于全球通胀预期进入顶部区域后企稳，再通胀交易退潮，下半年科网巨企所面临的压力将小于上半年。即便美债收益率再度进入温和上行状态，市场对此也已有较为充分的预期，大型科网股的反应斜率或将边际钝化。\n风险提示：美债收益率上行超预期、通胀上行超预期、全球市场剧烈波动\n自今年2月中旬以来，港股市场的大型科网股走势显著承压，主要受平台经济监管措施逐步收紧、全球范围内“宅经济”红利减退和美债收益率走高等三大因素所制约：\n1.大陆对于平台经济监管措施的逐步收紧。在此前相当长一段时间里，中国互联网的发展沿袭了“摸着石头过河”的模式，监管采取审慎包容的态度，给予科网企业充分的空间以进行商业模式的创新和探究。在经历了若干年的“野蛮生长”之后，目前大型科网企业基本上都已经建立了成熟的商业模式，其行为对于市场的影响力也日渐增强。因此，将科网企业、尤其是受众较广的平台型互联网企业纳入更加严格和规范的监管体系之中，“强化反垄断和防止资本无序扩张”，成为了应有之义。\n目前本轮反垄断监管仍在持续推进的过程之中：2月7日，《国务院反垄断委员会关于平台经济领域的反垄断指南》正式实施，明确了垄断的认定标准和处罚手段，完善了反垄断监管的规章制度；4月10日，市场监管总局对阿里巴巴处以182亿元的罚款，并对其提出了全面整改的指导意见，形成了本轮反垄断监管的首个案例；4月26日，市场监管总局依法对美团实施“二选一”等涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。我们预计，所有的平台型互联网公司都将涉及到反垄断监管调查之中。客观来讲，短期内监管举措的收紧会使大型科网企业的运营成本上升，变现能力相对下降，业绩的释放受到一定制约。\n另一方面，反垄断也会促使科网巨企加大对竞争还不太激烈、“内卷程度”相对较低的新赛道的开拓，以寻求新的业务增长点——在近期的业绩会上，阿里和腾讯先后宣布会将利润的增量部分用于再投资，未来对业绩增长的重视程度将高于利润增长。总的来看，在中国科网行业普遍进入新一轮大规模投资期的背景下，短期内大型企业的Bottom Line利润端会受到压制，想象空间有限，也将影响整体的估值水平。\n2.全球范围内“宅经济”红利减退。2020年疫情的暴发深刻改变了人们的生活方式，居家生活/办公/娱乐成为主流的需求，带动互联网渗透率不断提升，给科网企业带来了“疫情红利”。随着疫苗接种率的提升、社交限制的放宽、生活的正常化，线下的消费和服务场景被重新打开，线上化的红利出现了逐步减退的迹象。去年同期收入上升所带来的高基数效应，在某种程度上反而成了“负担”。因此，今年2月后，投资者忧虑后疫情时代全球科网企业的高增长难以为继，拖累各主要市场的成长股均大幅调整，也对香港大型科网股的走势产生了负面带动作用。\n3.美债收益率走高施加压力。随着经济复苏前景趋于明朗、疫苗普及接种的进度良好、美国陆续落地新刺激法案，市场开始下注经济的实质性复苏，带动实际利率显著抬头。此外，以铜、铁、铝为代表的大宗商品供需矛盾日益突出，通胀预期也开始升温。这两者共同推高了美债的名义收益率（可以被拆分为实际利率+通胀预期）。由于大型科网股整体仍偏向于成长风格，因此美债收益率的提升从两个方面对股价的走势产生了掣肘：\n（1）美债收益率作为全球无风险利率的代表，是DDM模型中分母端折现率的重要构成部分。因此，美债收益率的提升会对资产的估值产生负面影响，这在依赖远期现金流、折现期数多的成长股上体现得尤为明显。此前在疫情高峰时，各发达经济体均推行零息政策，使折现率被压缩在了一个较小的水平，而这种过度宽松的不良结果是各类资产（尤其是成长类）的价格对美债收益率高度敏感——即便是微小的上升、甚至只是预期的轻微改变，都会给股价带来较大的下行压力。\n（2）此外，社会的借贷成本通常与基准利率相挂钩。2020年时，面对史无前例的低息环境，各主体借债的意愿显著增强，全球债券发行规模也创下历史记录。美债收益率的上升隐含着的预期是未来资金面的收紧（美联储削QE）与基准利率的抬升（美联储逐步加息），这也同时意味着企业的融资成本会相应抬升。\n\n\n\n\n\n站在2021年年中的时间点上来看，上述的三大不利因素给大型科网企业所带来的负面影响正在边际减退：\n1.反垄断政策“刮骨疗毒”，短期负面影响可控，长期有助于增强行业活力。随着阿里处罚的落地，政策面的不确定性也有所下降。\n趋严的监管政策固然会带来短期阵痛，但其实反垄断本质上并不意味着反平台经济，更不意味着反互联网，长期来看反而有助于提升科网行业的创新活力，进一步增强大型企业、尤其是平台型企业的竞争力和成长性，也推动中国科网行业从流量驱动和商业模式驱动的旧有模式转型为技术驱动和产品驱动。\n事实上，随着科网行业的日益进步，加强对巨头公司的监管在全球范围内都是大势所趋，欧美发达国家对微软、谷歌和脸书等大型科网公司所开展的反垄断调查和处罚早已有之。复盘处罚过后的表现，几大科网企业的基本面仍然持续向好，股价“长牛”的趋势也并未被改变。\n此外，4月份阿里巴巴整改“靴子”的落地，客观上缓解了此前市场上存在着的对平台企业可能会被拆分的担忧，也为估算其他大型科网企业未来可能面临的处罚力度和方式方法提供了可参照的依据。\n在新业务的开辟方面，尽管科网巨头都提出了通过牺牲利润增长以加大投资额的举措，但事实上目前各大企业的账面资金均较为充足。在反映可动用资金的“现金及现金等价物”栏目中，阿里拥有超过3200亿港元资金，腾讯也有1500亿、且大量前期投资的游戏和电动车公司已到可变现之时，足以支撑未来的“烧钱”大战。因此，扩张性投资给企业带来的资金压力暂时并不需要过度担忧，新业务价值才是更应关注的重点。\n\n\n2.尽管全球宅经济逐步退潮，港股大型科网公司的业绩仍具备较强韧性，成长潜能仍在持续释放的过程中。\n今年一季度，港股科网巨企的业绩基本都处于市场一致预期的区间范围之内（腾讯、阿里），部分甚至大超预期（美团、小米）。这显示出，即便遭遇多重不利因素的影响和打击，中国科网行业的增长仍具备十足的韧性和巨大的潜能。\n事实上，各龙头企业前期均已建立起稳健高效的商业模式，在各自的细分领域吸引了数量庞大的用户群体，打造出足够宽广的“护城河”，竞争优势难以被颠覆。即便疫后线下活动复苏，相当一部分产业和活动进行线上化转型的趋势却已难以逆转。当2B端的企业与2C端的消费者使用习惯定型之后，较高的用户粘性将持续为科网企业的成长提供支撑。\n从全球范围来看，描述互联网发展的“时间机器理论”已经从过去中国学习西方的“Copyto China”，发展到了中国反向输出的“Copy from China”，如有“美版美团”之称的美国外卖第一股DoorDash、“美版拼多多”Wish和“东南亚小腾讯”Sea等。从外国企业的模仿之中，可以看出目前中国的科网企业在特定技术与商业模式的创新方面均已居于世界前列。除此之外，中国的科网巨企也普遍都拥有与国际先进水平接轨的企业治理能力。\n展望未来，虽然疫情的红利逐步消退，但经济转型的红利却仍在持续释放的过程之中，科网行业的发展前景仍然十分广阔——社区团购、直播电商等商业模式方兴未艾，物联网/企业互联网和海外市场的蓬勃发展提供了更大的想象空间，而在旧经济中的不断迭代和衍生出的各式各样“新玩法”和细分/下沉市场的开拓也能带来新的增量利润来源。总的来看，港股科网巨企的征途仍是“星辰大海”。\n3.大型科网股对美债收益率的上升反应已较为充分，后续压力下降。\n2月中旬以来，伴随着美债收益率的上行，港股走势显著承压，其中恒生科技指数“首当其冲”、走势一路下探，基本回吐了自去年11月全球风险偏好改善以来的所有涨幅。此外，我们在《当前港股的微观结构已回归正常区间》中还指出，新经济板块的成交集中度也出现了显著的下滑，前2%个股的每周成交额已较峰值时减少了逾千亿，其中下滑幅度最大的即为大型科网股。\n纵向来看，自高点近30%的回撤已经挤出了相当一部分科网板块存在的泡沫，而持仓集中度的下降也使得前期大型科网股存在的“过度抱团”现象得到了缓解。目前各互联网巨头的估值水平基本都已回落至历史均值以下，重新具备了良好的投资性价比和较为充足的安全边际。\n横向来看，在前期港股市场最受投资者青睐的“新经济三杰”（即科技、生物医药、新型消费）之中，科网股的调整幅度最大：恒生医疗保健指数受疫苗使用、三胎政策放开、医美热潮兴起、未盈利生物科技B类股和医疗器械等子板块的轮番带动，目前已经收复2月后的失地，重回历史高位。新型消费板块内部则出现了显著的分化，部分行业遭遇了凶猛的“杀估值”浪潮，如面临着较大的政策不确定性的子板块（如电子烟和教育），以及增长逻辑发生了不利改变/难以自洽的行业（如餐饮业）等；而部分优质稀缺的细分子板块（如运动服饰）则受益于多重利好而持续走强。因此，目前在港股的三大新经济板块之中，前期调整幅度大、尚未见明显反弹的科网股估值吸引力比较突出。\n除了在港股市场内部跑输之外，今年以来香港科网股表现也远不及美股与A股的科技企业。由于港股具备典型的离岸特征，在美债收益率上行的过程中对流动性抽离的反应最为剧烈，严重拖累了前期资金最为青睐的大型科网股表现。据彭博口径，调整去年的低基数影响，以未来两年的盈利增速作为基准所测算出的恒生科技指数的PEG约为0.98倍，而纳斯达克综合指数的PEG高达1.86倍、创业板指也有1.64倍。因此，未来跨市场间“估值差”的收敛也有望成为港股科网巨企走强的支撑动能。\n5月以来，全球通胀预期进入顶部区域后企稳，再通胀交易退潮，美债收益率震荡走软。展望下半年，“实际利率上行+通胀预期走软”的组合可能将会延续，因而科网巨企所面临的压力也将小于上半年。事实上，即便美债收益率进入温和上行状态，市场也已有较为充分的预期，大型科网股的反应斜率或将边际钝化。\n\n\n\n\n风险提示：美债收益率上行超预期、通胀上行超预期、全球市场剧烈波动","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"09988":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}