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Liewsky

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- LiewskyLiewsky
  ·04-10
  $Alibaba(09988)$ up
  110 Comment
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- LiewskyLiewsky
  ·2023-07-31
  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ up up
  150 Comment
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- LiewskyLiewsky
  ·2023-07-31
  $Gaotu Techedu Inc.(GOTU)$
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- LiewskyLiewsky
  ·2022-06-06
  Don't chase in, market sentiment still not as stable.
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- LiewskyLiewsky
  ·2022-06-04
  Good
  Fear of a June Swoon Rattles Investors, Is a Rebound Lurking?
  "And what is so rare as a day in June? Then, if ever, come perfect days." James Russell Lowell's poe
  Fear of a June Swoon Rattles Investors, Is a Rebound Lurking?
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- LiewskyLiewsky
  ·2022-06-04
  Ok
  Why a Top Wall Street Quant Sees S&P 500 Taking Back All Its Losses By Year's End
  JP Morgan's Marko Kolanovic, one of the most closely followed quantitative analysts on Wall Street,
  Why a Top Wall Street Quant Sees S&P 500 Taking Back All Its Losses By Year's End
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- LiewskyLiewsky
  ·2022-06-04
  Ok
  Fed to Steam Ahead on Rate Hikes Even As Job Gains Slow
  (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is on track for half point interest rate increases in June, July, an
  Fed to Steam Ahead on Rate Hikes Even As Job Gains Slow
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chase in, market sentiment still not as stable.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053890644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059600001,"gmtCreate":1654345596203,"gmtModify":1676535434251,"author":{"id":"3585265724803106","authorId":"3585265724803106","name":"Liewsky","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/629fabaf396815c37dc67b57ac2dc131","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585265724803106","authorIdStr":"3585265724803106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059600001","repostId":"2240788706","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2240788706","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1654309673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240788706?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fear of a June Swoon Rattles Investors, Is a Rebound Lurking?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240788706","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"\"And what is so rare as a day in June? Then, if ever, come perfect days.\" James Russell Lowell's poe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>&#34;And what is so rare as a day in June? Then, if ever, come perfect days.&#34; James Russell Lowell&#39;s poetic words aptly describe some years&#39; sixth month, but not this one, when, seemingly everywhere, the mood appears as dark as the grayest weeks in February.</p><p>The foreboding seems worst in corporate suites. Brace for a hurricane, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned this past week. Then Tesla&#39;s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> mercurial chief, Elon Musk, in an email seen by Reuters, confessed to a &#34;super bad feeling&#34; about the economy, which may have prompted him to call for a 10% staff cut at the electric-auto maker.</p><p>That&#39;s after 16,800 pink slips were handed out last month by 66 technology companies, the most since May 2020 at the depth of the pandemic, our colleagues at the New York Post report, based on data from sackings tracker Layoffs.fyi. Many of those cuts came from outfits with much promise, but no profits, that burned through copious amounts of cash bestowed by a once-ebullient equity market.</p><p>But even companies not dependent on the markets for funding, such as JPMorgan and Tesla, might feel the effect of their stocks&#39; slump. That notion was posited by Alan Greenspan decades ago, according to The Man Who Knew, Sebastian Mallaby&#39;s biography of the former Federal Reserve chairman. With their shares off 25% and 43% from their respective highs, the JPMorgan and Tesla honchos (who have big personal stakes in their stocks) understandably might feel less than chipper.</p><p>Similarly, the Bull &amp; Bear Indicator tracked by Bank of America&#39;s strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, moved to &#34;extreme bearish,&#34; its lowest reading since June 2020, during the worst of the pandemic when a Covid-19 vaccine was still months away. And Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William and Mary, details in his latest Financial Insyghts missive an array of downbeat developments, including the latest cover of the Economist, featuring the unpleasant prospects of nuclear war and a U.S. recession.</p><p>Contrarians naturally infer that, when things look this bad, they only can get better. The BofA indicator, which has flashed &#34;buy&#34; since late March, points to a bounce in the S&amp;P 500 index to 4400, from Friday&#39;s close of 4108.54. Atwater also observes that small-cap stocks&#39; price/earnings ratios match their nadirs touched in the 2020 pandemic lows and the 2009 bottom following the financial crisis, while &#34;many of the previously exalted have been humiliated,&#34; notably Cathie Wood, whose ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$(ARKK)$</a> has completed a round trip back to March 2020. A reversal of the current despair could be accompanied by an outbreak of peace, prosperity, and the end of Covid-19 and political polarization in America, he says.</p><p>The bounce envisaged by BofA&#39;s strategists should fade once the S&amp;P hits 4200, however, and should be sold short if it gets to 4400. That&#39;s because global central banks are just starting to tighten monetary policies. &#34;No fun &#39;til the Fed is done,&#34; which won&#39;t be until payroll employment posts a monthly drop, they write.</p><p>The latest jobs numbers, released on Friday, indicate just the opposite, a stronger-than-expected 390,000 payroll increase for May, tempered only slightly by a 22,000 net negative revision for the two preceding months. The separate survey of households showed the headline unemployment rate at 3.6% for the third consecutive month, a mere tenth above the prepandemic low.</p><p>Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% for May and up 5.2% from a year earlier. But pay for rank-and-file workers is rising faster, with nonsupervisory employees&#39; hourly wages up 0.6% in the latest month, while smaller gains for supervisors and white-collar workers held down the overall rise, Thomas Simons, a money-market economist at Jefferies, points out in a research note.</p><p>Indeed, the overall Index of Aggregate Weekly Payrolls (which covers employment, wages, and hours worked) was up 0.6% in May and 9.9% from its year-earlier reading, adds Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. The bigger pay packets should support consumer spending, he adds. But a lot of that will be absorbed by higher prices.</p><p>To think that Fed rate hikes to the 2%-3% range -- still far below zero in real terms -- will curb inflation is wishful thinking, Blitz adds. After tempering expectations of future increases ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, markets this past week reverted to looking for three half-point rises in each of the central bank&#39;s next three policy meetings in June, July, and September, with fed funds topping out at 3.25%-3.50% in mid-2023, according to the CME FedWatch site.</p><p>As a result, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to nearly 3%, and the major stock indexes shed about 1%, the eighth weekly loss for the S&amp;P and Nasdaq Composite in the past nine. Contemporary poets may be more inclined to couplets rhyming June and swoon.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fear of a June Swoon Rattles Investors, Is a Rebound Lurking?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFear of a June Swoon Rattles Investors, Is a Rebound Lurking?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-04 10:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>&#34;And what is so rare as a day in June? Then, if ever, come perfect days.&#34; James Russell Lowell&#39;s poetic words aptly describe some years&#39; sixth month, but not this one, when, seemingly everywhere, the mood appears as dark as the grayest weeks in February.</p><p>The foreboding seems worst in corporate suites. Brace for a hurricane, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned this past week. Then Tesla&#39;s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> mercurial chief, Elon Musk, in an email seen by Reuters, confessed to a &#34;super bad feeling&#34; about the economy, which may have prompted him to call for a 10% staff cut at the electric-auto maker.</p><p>That&#39;s after 16,800 pink slips were handed out last month by 66 technology companies, the most since May 2020 at the depth of the pandemic, our colleagues at the New York Post report, based on data from sackings tracker Layoffs.fyi. Many of those cuts came from outfits with much promise, but no profits, that burned through copious amounts of cash bestowed by a once-ebullient equity market.</p><p>But even companies not dependent on the markets for funding, such as JPMorgan and Tesla, might feel the effect of their stocks&#39; slump. That notion was posited by Alan Greenspan decades ago, according to The Man Who Knew, Sebastian Mallaby&#39;s biography of the former Federal Reserve chairman. With their shares off 25% and 43% from their respective highs, the JPMorgan and Tesla honchos (who have big personal stakes in their stocks) understandably might feel less than chipper.</p><p>Similarly, the Bull &amp; Bear Indicator tracked by Bank of America&#39;s strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, moved to &#34;extreme bearish,&#34; its lowest reading since June 2020, during the worst of the pandemic when a Covid-19 vaccine was still months away. And Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William and Mary, details in his latest Financial Insyghts missive an array of downbeat developments, including the latest cover of the Economist, featuring the unpleasant prospects of nuclear war and a U.S. recession.</p><p>Contrarians naturally infer that, when things look this bad, they only can get better. The BofA indicator, which has flashed &#34;buy&#34; since late March, points to a bounce in the S&amp;P 500 index to 4400, from Friday&#39;s close of 4108.54. Atwater also observes that small-cap stocks&#39; price/earnings ratios match their nadirs touched in the 2020 pandemic lows and the 2009 bottom following the financial crisis, while &#34;many of the previously exalted have been humiliated,&#34; notably Cathie Wood, whose ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$(ARKK)$</a> has completed a round trip back to March 2020. A reversal of the current despair could be accompanied by an outbreak of peace, prosperity, and the end of Covid-19 and political polarization in America, he says.</p><p>The bounce envisaged by BofA&#39;s strategists should fade once the S&amp;P hits 4200, however, and should be sold short if it gets to 4400. That&#39;s because global central banks are just starting to tighten monetary policies. &#34;No fun &#39;til the Fed is done,&#34; which won&#39;t be until payroll employment posts a monthly drop, they write.</p><p>The latest jobs numbers, released on Friday, indicate just the opposite, a stronger-than-expected 390,000 payroll increase for May, tempered only slightly by a 22,000 net negative revision for the two preceding months. The separate survey of households showed the headline unemployment rate at 3.6% for the third consecutive month, a mere tenth above the prepandemic low.</p><p>Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% for May and up 5.2% from a year earlier. But pay for rank-and-file workers is rising faster, with nonsupervisory employees&#39; hourly wages up 0.6% in the latest month, while smaller gains for supervisors and white-collar workers held down the overall rise, Thomas Simons, a money-market economist at Jefferies, points out in a research note.</p><p>Indeed, the overall Index of Aggregate Weekly Payrolls (which covers employment, wages, and hours worked) was up 0.6% in May and 9.9% from its year-earlier reading, adds Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. The bigger pay packets should support consumer spending, he adds. But a lot of that will be absorbed by higher prices.</p><p>To think that Fed rate hikes to the 2%-3% range -- still far below zero in real terms -- will curb inflation is wishful thinking, Blitz adds. After tempering expectations of future increases ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, markets this past week reverted to looking for three half-point rises in each of the central bank&#39;s next three policy meetings in June, July, and September, with fed funds topping out at 3.25%-3.50% in mid-2023, according to the CME FedWatch site.</p><p>As a result, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to nearly 3%, and the major stock indexes shed about 1%, the eighth weekly loss for the S&amp;P and Nasdaq Composite in the past nine. Contemporary poets may be more inclined to couplets rhyming June and swoon.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240788706","content_text":"\"And what is so rare as a day in June? Then, if ever, come perfect days.\" James Russell Lowell's poetic words aptly describe some years' sixth month, but not this one, when, seemingly everywhere, the mood appears as dark as the grayest weeks in February.The foreboding seems worst in corporate suites. Brace for a hurricane, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned this past week. Then Tesla's $(TSLA)$ mercurial chief, Elon Musk, in an email seen by Reuters, confessed to a \"super bad feeling\" about the economy, which may have prompted him to call for a 10% staff cut at the electric-auto maker.That's after 16,800 pink slips were handed out last month by 66 technology companies, the most since May 2020 at the depth of the pandemic, our colleagues at the New York Post report, based on data from sackings tracker Layoffs.fyi. Many of those cuts came from outfits with much promise, but no profits, that burned through copious amounts of cash bestowed by a once-ebullient equity market.But even companies not dependent on the markets for funding, such as JPMorgan and Tesla, might feel the effect of their stocks' slump. That notion was posited by Alan Greenspan decades ago, according to The Man Who Knew, Sebastian Mallaby's biography of the former Federal Reserve chairman. With their shares off 25% and 43% from their respective highs, the JPMorgan and Tesla honchos (who have big personal stakes in their stocks) understandably might feel less than chipper.Similarly, the Bull & Bear Indicator tracked by Bank of America's strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, moved to \"extreme bearish,\" its lowest reading since June 2020, during the worst of the pandemic when a Covid-19 vaccine was still months away. And Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William and Mary, details in his latest Financial Insyghts missive an array of downbeat developments, including the latest cover of the Economist, featuring the unpleasant prospects of nuclear war and a U.S. recession.Contrarians naturally infer that, when things look this bad, they only can get better. The BofA indicator, which has flashed \"buy\" since late March, points to a bounce in the S&P 500 index to 4400, from Friday's close of 4108.54. Atwater also observes that small-cap stocks' price/earnings ratios match their nadirs touched in the 2020 pandemic lows and the 2009 bottom following the financial crisis, while \"many of the previously exalted have been humiliated,\" notably Cathie Wood, whose ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund $(ARKK)$ has completed a round trip back to March 2020. A reversal of the current despair could be accompanied by an outbreak of peace, prosperity, and the end of Covid-19 and political polarization in America, he says.The bounce envisaged by BofA's strategists should fade once the S&P hits 4200, however, and should be sold short if it gets to 4400. That's because global central banks are just starting to tighten monetary policies. \"No fun 'til the Fed is done,\" which won't be until payroll employment posts a monthly drop, they write.The latest jobs numbers, released on Friday, indicate just the opposite, a stronger-than-expected 390,000 payroll increase for May, tempered only slightly by a 22,000 net negative revision for the two preceding months. The separate survey of households showed the headline unemployment rate at 3.6% for the third consecutive month, a mere tenth above the prepandemic low.Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% for May and up 5.2% from a year earlier. But pay for rank-and-file workers is rising faster, with nonsupervisory employees' hourly wages up 0.6% in the latest month, while smaller gains for supervisors and white-collar workers held down the overall rise, Thomas Simons, a money-market economist at Jefferies, points out in a research note.Indeed, the overall Index of Aggregate Weekly Payrolls (which covers employment, wages, and hours worked) was up 0.6% in May and 9.9% from its year-earlier reading, adds Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. The bigger pay packets should support consumer spending, he adds. But a lot of that will be absorbed by higher prices.To think that Fed rate hikes to the 2%-3% range -- still far below zero in real terms -- will curb inflation is wishful thinking, Blitz adds. After tempering expectations of future increases ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, markets this past week reverted to looking for three half-point rises in each of the central bank's next three policy meetings in June, July, and September, with fed funds topping out at 3.25%-3.50% in mid-2023, according to the CME FedWatch site.As a result, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to nearly 3%, and the major stock indexes shed about 1%, the eighth weekly loss for the S&P and Nasdaq Composite in the past nine. Contemporary poets may be more inclined to couplets rhyming June and swoon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059877519,"gmtCreate":1654345549431,"gmtModify":1676535434268,"author":{"id":"3585265724803106","authorId":"3585265724803106","name":"Liewsky","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/629fabaf396815c37dc67b57ac2dc131","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585265724803106","authorIdStr":"3585265724803106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059877519","repostId":"2240766534","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2240766534","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1654163080,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240766534?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-02 17:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why a Top Wall Street Quant Sees S&P 500 Taking Back All Its Losses By Year's End","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240766534","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"JP Morgan's Marko Kolanovic, one of the most closely followed quantitative analysts on Wall Street, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>JP Morgan&#39;s Marko Kolanovic, one of the most closely followed quantitative analysts on Wall Street, augured in a note to clients on Wednesday that U.S. stocks could see a torrid rebound during the latter half of 2022.</p><p>While Kolanovic&#39;s boss (JPM CEO Jamie Dimon) helped spook markets on Wednesday with his talk of an economic &#34;hurricane&#34;, the JPM quant recounted the reasons why the latest rebound in stocks could continue, even as U.S. equities finished Wednesday&#39;s session slightly lower. According to him, May could serve as a &#34;template&#34; for stocks during the balance of the year.</p><p>As a reminder, bearish comments from Dimon and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard contributed to the selloff in stocks (among other factors), driving the S&amp;P 500  down 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average  lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 0.7%. That left the S&amp;P 500 down 14% for the year to date.</p><p>He also noted that his bullish call is &#34;out-of-consensus&#34; on Wall Street, although strategists across Wall Street have raised their year-end targets for stocks in recent weeks. According to FactSet data, the present median year-end forecast for the S&amp;P 500 is north of 5,000, which is well above where the equity benchmark is presently trading.</p><p>&#34;Despite the steep selloff, we believe that markets will recover YTD losses and result in a broadly unchanged year,&#34; Kolanovic wrote.</p><p>Kolanovic cited a few factors that helped drive the raucous equity bounce that helped spur the S&amp;P 500 and Dow to finish May with tiny gains (while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged behind the broader market and finished roughly 2% lower).</p><p>All of this was undergirded by a vicious short squeeze that helped spur the strongest comeback in U.S. stocks in more than a year.</p><p>Considering that position, according to Kolanovic, is already stretched to the down side, there simply isn&#39;t room for stocks to move substantially lower.</p><p>&#34;Bears are saying, &#39;only the Fed making a U-turn can change the course of markets here.&#39; We think this is not true as what is needed is incremental change relative to the significant amount of tightening already priced into the market. In fact, when positions get to minimum thresholds (and we are close to that point), even bad news cannot push the market substantially lower.&#34;</p><p>And as cross-asset volatility continues to normalize, the foundation for re-risking to drive stocks higher is well established, with JPM seeing $1.2 trillion of equity buying from corporations buying back their own shares, and another $500 billion pouring into the market on behalf of &#34;volatility-sensitive&#34; investors.</p><p>To be sure, the present outlook doesn&#39;t warrant indiscriminate buying. Rather, investors should be discerning. Currently, there is a tremendous dispersion of performance and valuations, which creates space for investors to outperform the benchmark.</p><p>With &#34;defensive&#34; stocks already trading near record relative valuations to the rest of the market, Kolanovic sees the most opportunity in the comparatively unloved market segments, including small-caps (the Russell 2000  is down more than 17% year to date), energy and biotech. All these segments are trading near all-time-low relative valuations.</p><p>Kolanovic illustrated this dispersion in a pair of charts. The first showed the spread between the forward price-to-earnings ratios for stocks that are &#34;expensive&#34; vs. the market and those that are &#34;cheap&#34;.</p><p>His second chart illustrated how small-cap stocks are trading at rock-bottom valuations compared with the rest of the market.</p><p>Kolanovic concluded by pointing out that there&#39;s scope for stocks to move lower if the U.S. economy does slip into recession. But that&#39;s not JP Morgan&#39;s base case.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a Top Wall Street Quant Sees S&P 500 Taking Back All Its Losses By Year's End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a Top Wall Street Quant Sees S&P 500 Taking Back All Its Losses By Year's End\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-02 17:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>JP Morgan&#39;s Marko Kolanovic, one of the most closely followed quantitative analysts on Wall Street, augured in a note to clients on Wednesday that U.S. stocks could see a torrid rebound during the latter half of 2022.</p><p>While Kolanovic&#39;s boss (JPM CEO Jamie Dimon) helped spook markets on Wednesday with his talk of an economic &#34;hurricane&#34;, the JPM quant recounted the reasons why the latest rebound in stocks could continue, even as U.S. equities finished Wednesday&#39;s session slightly lower. According to him, May could serve as a &#34;template&#34; for stocks during the balance of the year.</p><p>As a reminder, bearish comments from Dimon and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard contributed to the selloff in stocks (among other factors), driving the S&amp;P 500  down 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average  lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 0.7%. That left the S&amp;P 500 down 14% for the year to date.</p><p>He also noted that his bullish call is &#34;out-of-consensus&#34; on Wall Street, although strategists across Wall Street have raised their year-end targets for stocks in recent weeks. According to FactSet data, the present median year-end forecast for the S&amp;P 500 is north of 5,000, which is well above where the equity benchmark is presently trading.</p><p>&#34;Despite the steep selloff, we believe that markets will recover YTD losses and result in a broadly unchanged year,&#34; Kolanovic wrote.</p><p>Kolanovic cited a few factors that helped drive the raucous equity bounce that helped spur the S&amp;P 500 and Dow to finish May with tiny gains (while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged behind the broader market and finished roughly 2% lower).</p><p>All of this was undergirded by a vicious short squeeze that helped spur the strongest comeback in U.S. stocks in more than a year.</p><p>Considering that position, according to Kolanovic, is already stretched to the down side, there simply isn&#39;t room for stocks to move substantially lower.</p><p>&#34;Bears are saying, &#39;only the Fed making a U-turn can change the course of markets here.&#39; We think this is not true as what is needed is incremental change relative to the significant amount of tightening already priced into the market. In fact, when positions get to minimum thresholds (and we are close to that point), even bad news cannot push the market substantially lower.&#34;</p><p>And as cross-asset volatility continues to normalize, the foundation for re-risking to drive stocks higher is well established, with JPM seeing $1.2 trillion of equity buying from corporations buying back their own shares, and another $500 billion pouring into the market on behalf of &#34;volatility-sensitive&#34; investors.</p><p>To be sure, the present outlook doesn&#39;t warrant indiscriminate buying. Rather, investors should be discerning. Currently, there is a tremendous dispersion of performance and valuations, which creates space for investors to outperform the benchmark.</p><p>With &#34;defensive&#34; stocks already trading near record relative valuations to the rest of the market, Kolanovic sees the most opportunity in the comparatively unloved market segments, including small-caps (the Russell 2000  is down more than 17% year to date), energy and biotech. All these segments are trading near all-time-low relative valuations.</p><p>Kolanovic illustrated this dispersion in a pair of charts. The first showed the spread between the forward price-to-earnings ratios for stocks that are &#34;expensive&#34; vs. the market and those that are &#34;cheap&#34;.</p><p>His second chart illustrated how small-cap stocks are trading at rock-bottom valuations compared with the rest of the market.</p><p>Kolanovic concluded by pointing out that there&#39;s scope for stocks to move lower if the U.S. economy does slip into recession. But that&#39;s not JP Morgan&#39;s base case.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240766534","content_text":"JP Morgan's Marko Kolanovic, one of the most closely followed quantitative analysts on Wall Street, augured in a note to clients on Wednesday that U.S. stocks could see a torrid rebound during the latter half of 2022.While Kolanovic's boss (JPM CEO Jamie Dimon) helped spook markets on Wednesday with his talk of an economic \"hurricane\", the JPM quant recounted the reasons why the latest rebound in stocks could continue, even as U.S. equities finished Wednesday's session slightly lower. According to him, May could serve as a \"template\" for stocks during the balance of the year.As a reminder, bearish comments from Dimon and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard contributed to the selloff in stocks (among other factors), driving the S&P 500  down 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average  lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 0.7%. That left the S&P 500 down 14% for the year to date.He also noted that his bullish call is \"out-of-consensus\" on Wall Street, although strategists across Wall Street have raised their year-end targets for stocks in recent weeks. According to FactSet data, the present median year-end forecast for the S&P 500 is north of 5,000, which is well above where the equity benchmark is presently trading.\"Despite the steep selloff, we believe that markets will recover YTD losses and result in a broadly unchanged year,\" Kolanovic wrote.Kolanovic cited a few factors that helped drive the raucous equity bounce that helped spur the S&P 500 and Dow to finish May with tiny gains (while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged behind the broader market and finished roughly 2% lower).All of this was undergirded by a vicious short squeeze that helped spur the strongest comeback in U.S. stocks in more than a year.Considering that position, according to Kolanovic, is already stretched to the down side, there simply isn't room for stocks to move substantially lower.\"Bears are saying, 'only the Fed making a U-turn can change the course of markets here.' We think this is not true as what is needed is incremental change relative to the significant amount of tightening already priced into the market. In fact, when positions get to minimum thresholds (and we are close to that point), even bad news cannot push the market substantially lower.\"And as cross-asset volatility continues to normalize, the foundation for re-risking to drive stocks higher is well established, with JPM seeing $1.2 trillion of equity buying from corporations buying back their own shares, and another $500 billion pouring into the market on behalf of \"volatility-sensitive\" investors.To be sure, the present outlook doesn't warrant indiscriminate buying. Rather, investors should be discerning. Currently, there is a tremendous dispersion of performance and valuations, which creates space for investors to outperform the benchmark.With \"defensive\" stocks already trading near record relative valuations to the rest of the market, Kolanovic sees the most opportunity in the comparatively unloved market segments, including small-caps (the Russell 2000  is down more than 17% year to date), energy and biotech. All these segments are trading near all-time-low relative valuations.Kolanovic illustrated this dispersion in a pair of charts. The first showed the spread between the forward price-to-earnings ratios for stocks that are \"expensive\" vs. the market and those that are \"cheap\".His second chart illustrated how small-cap stocks are trading at rock-bottom valuations compared with the rest of the market.Kolanovic concluded by pointing out that there's scope for stocks to move lower if the U.S. economy does slip into recession. But that's not JP Morgan's base case.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059877229,"gmtCreate":1654345487261,"gmtModify":1676535434243,"author":{"id":"3585265724803106","authorId":"3585265724803106","name":"Liewsky","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/629fabaf396815c37dc67b57ac2dc131","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585265724803106","authorIdStr":"3585265724803106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059877229","repostId":"1111490044","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111490044","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1654321244,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111490044?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 13:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed to Steam Ahead on Rate Hikes Even As Job Gains Slow","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111490044","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is on track for half point interest rate increases in June, July, an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is on track for half point interest rate increases in June, July, and perhaps even beyond as fresh job market data Friday showed no sign the U.S. economy is buckling under the pressure of high inflation and rising borrowing costs.</p><p>A Labor Department report early Friday showed U.S. employers have added an average of 400,000 jobs each month since March, down from the nearly 600,000-per-month average pace from January 2021 to February of this year.</p><p>It is a downshift the Fed has reason to welcome, as it tries to tighten monetary policy fast enough to bring inflation down, but not so fast it triggers anything super bad.</p><p>Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester called May&#39;s job gains &#34;strong&#34; but said the slowing trend was &#34;a good thing.&#34;</p><p>&#34;We want to see some moderation in both activity in growth and in the labor market to cool things off a little bit,&#34; Mester told CNBC in an interview. &#34;It&#39;s too soon to say that&#39;s going to change our outlook, or my outlook, for policy: The No. 1 problem in the economy remains very very high inflation.&#34;</p><p>Mester said that unless she sees &#34;compelling&#34; evidence of falling inflation - now running at 40-year highs and more than triple the Fed&#39;s 2% target - she will likely support yet another 50-basis point increase in September.</p><p>Stocks fell Friday and traders bet the Fed will end up lifting the policy rate to a range of 2.75%-3% by year&#39;s end.</p><p>President Joe Biden said the data showed the economy was holding up even as the labor market shifted to a more sustainable pace of job growth.</p><p>&#34;We aren’t likely to see the kind of blockbuster job reports month after month like we had over this past year. But that’s a good thing. That’s a sign of a healthy economy,” Biden said.</p><p>Many economists expected an even sharper slowdown, as tech firms announced layoffs or hiring freezes amid diving company stock prices, and on the assumption that consumers would begin scaling back given high inflation and rising food and energy bills.</p><p>&#34;Payroll growth settled into a lower gear this spring but talk of an imminent recession is nothing more than fearmongering,&#34; wrote EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco, noting that the United States is now less than 1 million jobs short of the peak level for non-farm payrolls hit just before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. &#34;Anecdotal evidence of hiring freezes and layoffs at tech companies is misleading with overall job openings still near record-highs and layoffs at record-lows.&#34; read more</p><p>The annual pace of wage growth slowed slightly and the labor force grew by an additional 330,000 workers, both developments that Fed policymakers hope will continue.</p><p>The May jobs report is one of the last high-profile data points Fed officials will carry into the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 14-15, when they are expected to increase the federal funds rate by half a percentage point, to a target range of between 1.25% and 1.5%.</p><p>Absent a major shock policymakers are anticipated to approve another half percentage point increase in July.</p><p>And on Thursday Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said it was “very hard to see” a case for pausing rate hikes in September, though policymakers may opt to slow the pace of hikes to a quarter point per meeting if inflation begins to ease.</p><p>The pace of annual growth in average hourly earnings has fallen now for three months running from 5.6% in March to 5.2% in May, but that is higher than Fed officials feel is consistent with a 2% inflation rate, even accounting for productivity gains.</p><p>&#34;It will take a slowdown...to closer to 4% before the Fed can claim it is making significant progress,&#34; said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.</p><p>The behavior of the U.S. job market is central to the Fed&#39;s hope to steer the economy out of a current bout of high inflation without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.</p><p>Hiring in May continued across industries, with some now pressing well beyond their pre-pandemic employment levels, and even leisure and hospitality firms climbing steadily back as spending shifts towards travel, entertainment, and other in-person services.</p><p>Data from time management firm UKG has shown hourly work activity slowing for 10 of the last 11 weeks, with individual worker data suggesting some of that came as stressed shift workers got relief from the overtime demands of last year, said UKG Vice President Dave Gilbertson.</p><p>It was the sort of developing trend, he said, that could produce what the Fed says it wants - a gradual cooling of the labor market that begins to cut into the massive number of job vacancies without causing large layoffs.</p><p>&#34;We are not seeing a wild drop-off. We are seeing a slight drop-off each of the last three months...If companies are having hourly workers work just a few fewer shifts each of the past three months, that adds up to be something like the early stage of a soft landing in the labor markets,” he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed to Steam Ahead on Rate Hikes Even As Job Gains Slow</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed to Steam Ahead on Rate Hikes Even As Job Gains Slow\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-04 13:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is on track for half point interest rate increases in June, July, and perhaps even beyond as fresh job market data Friday showed no sign the U.S. economy is buckling under the pressure of high inflation and rising borrowing costs.</p><p>A Labor Department report early Friday showed U.S. employers have added an average of 400,000 jobs each month since March, down from the nearly 600,000-per-month average pace from January 2021 to February of this year.</p><p>It is a downshift the Fed has reason to welcome, as it tries to tighten monetary policy fast enough to bring inflation down, but not so fast it triggers anything super bad.</p><p>Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester called May&#39;s job gains &#34;strong&#34; but said the slowing trend was &#34;a good thing.&#34;</p><p>&#34;We want to see some moderation in both activity in growth and in the labor market to cool things off a little bit,&#34; Mester told CNBC in an interview. &#34;It&#39;s too soon to say that&#39;s going to change our outlook, or my outlook, for policy: The No. 1 problem in the economy remains very very high inflation.&#34;</p><p>Mester said that unless she sees &#34;compelling&#34; evidence of falling inflation - now running at 40-year highs and more than triple the Fed&#39;s 2% target - she will likely support yet another 50-basis point increase in September.</p><p>Stocks fell Friday and traders bet the Fed will end up lifting the policy rate to a range of 2.75%-3% by year&#39;s end.</p><p>President Joe Biden said the data showed the economy was holding up even as the labor market shifted to a more sustainable pace of job growth.</p><p>&#34;We aren’t likely to see the kind of blockbuster job reports month after month like we had over this past year. But that’s a good thing. That’s a sign of a healthy economy,” Biden said.</p><p>Many economists expected an even sharper slowdown, as tech firms announced layoffs or hiring freezes amid diving company stock prices, and on the assumption that consumers would begin scaling back given high inflation and rising food and energy bills.</p><p>&#34;Payroll growth settled into a lower gear this spring but talk of an imminent recession is nothing more than fearmongering,&#34; wrote EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco, noting that the United States is now less than 1 million jobs short of the peak level for non-farm payrolls hit just before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. &#34;Anecdotal evidence of hiring freezes and layoffs at tech companies is misleading with overall job openings still near record-highs and layoffs at record-lows.&#34; read more</p><p>The annual pace of wage growth slowed slightly and the labor force grew by an additional 330,000 workers, both developments that Fed policymakers hope will continue.</p><p>The May jobs report is one of the last high-profile data points Fed officials will carry into the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 14-15, when they are expected to increase the federal funds rate by half a percentage point, to a target range of between 1.25% and 1.5%.</p><p>Absent a major shock policymakers are anticipated to approve another half percentage point increase in July.</p><p>And on Thursday Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said it was “very hard to see” a case for pausing rate hikes in September, though policymakers may opt to slow the pace of hikes to a quarter point per meeting if inflation begins to ease.</p><p>The pace of annual growth in average hourly earnings has fallen now for three months running from 5.6% in March to 5.2% in May, but that is higher than Fed officials feel is consistent with a 2% inflation rate, even accounting for productivity gains.</p><p>&#34;It will take a slowdown...to closer to 4% before the Fed can claim it is making significant progress,&#34; said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.</p><p>The behavior of the U.S. job market is central to the Fed&#39;s hope to steer the economy out of a current bout of high inflation without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.</p><p>Hiring in May continued across industries, with some now pressing well beyond their pre-pandemic employment levels, and even leisure and hospitality firms climbing steadily back as spending shifts towards travel, entertainment, and other in-person services.</p><p>Data from time management firm UKG has shown hourly work activity slowing for 10 of the last 11 weeks, with individual worker data suggesting some of that came as stressed shift workers got relief from the overtime demands of last year, said UKG Vice President Dave Gilbertson.</p><p>It was the sort of developing trend, he said, that could produce what the Fed says it wants - a gradual cooling of the labor market that begins to cut into the massive number of job vacancies without causing large layoffs.</p><p>&#34;We are not seeing a wild drop-off. We are seeing a slight drop-off each of the last three months...If companies are having hourly workers work just a few fewer shifts each of the past three months, that adds up to be something like the early stage of a soft landing in the labor markets,” he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111490044","content_text":"(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is on track for half point interest rate increases in June, July, and perhaps even beyond as fresh job market data Friday showed no sign the U.S. economy is buckling under the pressure of high inflation and rising borrowing costs.A Labor Department report early Friday showed U.S. employers have added an average of 400,000 jobs each month since March, down from the nearly 600,000-per-month average pace from January 2021 to February of this year.It is a downshift the Fed has reason to welcome, as it tries to tighten monetary policy fast enough to bring inflation down, but not so fast it triggers anything super bad.Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester called May's job gains \"strong\" but said the slowing trend was \"a good thing.\"\"We want to see some moderation in both activity in growth and in the labor market to cool things off a little bit,\" Mester told CNBC in an interview. \"It's too soon to say that's going to change our outlook, or my outlook, for policy: The No. 1 problem in the economy remains very very high inflation.\"Mester said that unless she sees \"compelling\" evidence of falling inflation - now running at 40-year highs and more than triple the Fed's 2% target - she will likely support yet another 50-basis point increase in September.Stocks fell Friday and traders bet the Fed will end up lifting the policy rate to a range of 2.75%-3% by year's end.President Joe Biden said the data showed the economy was holding up even as the labor market shifted to a more sustainable pace of job growth.\"We aren’t likely to see the kind of blockbuster job reports month after month like we had over this past year. But that’s a good thing. That’s a sign of a healthy economy,” Biden said.Many economists expected an even sharper slowdown, as tech firms announced layoffs or hiring freezes amid diving company stock prices, and on the assumption that consumers would begin scaling back given high inflation and rising food and energy bills.\"Payroll growth settled into a lower gear this spring but talk of an imminent recession is nothing more than fearmongering,\" wrote EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco, noting that the United States is now less than 1 million jobs short of the peak level for non-farm payrolls hit just before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. \"Anecdotal evidence of hiring freezes and layoffs at tech companies is misleading with overall job openings still near record-highs and layoffs at record-lows.\" read moreThe annual pace of wage growth slowed slightly and the labor force grew by an additional 330,000 workers, both developments that Fed policymakers hope will continue.The May jobs report is one of the last high-profile data points Fed officials will carry into the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 14-15, when they are expected to increase the federal funds rate by half a percentage point, to a target range of between 1.25% and 1.5%.Absent a major shock policymakers are anticipated to approve another half percentage point increase in July.And on Thursday Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said it was “very hard to see” a case for pausing rate hikes in September, though policymakers may opt to slow the pace of hikes to a quarter point per meeting if inflation begins to ease.The pace of annual growth in average hourly earnings has fallen now for three months running from 5.6% in March to 5.2% in May, but that is higher than Fed officials feel is consistent with a 2% inflation rate, even accounting for productivity gains.\"It will take a slowdown...to closer to 4% before the Fed can claim it is making significant progress,\" said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.The behavior of the U.S. job market is central to the Fed's hope to steer the economy out of a current bout of high inflation without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.Hiring in May continued across industries, with some now pressing well beyond their pre-pandemic employment levels, and even leisure and hospitality firms climbing steadily back as spending shifts towards travel, entertainment, and other in-person services.Data from time management firm UKG has shown hourly work activity slowing for 10 of the last 11 weeks, with individual worker data suggesting some of that came as stressed shift workers got relief from the overtime demands of last year, said UKG Vice President Dave Gilbertson.It was the sort of developing trend, he said, that could produce what the Fed says it wants - a gradual cooling of the labor market that begins to cut into the massive number of job vacancies without causing large layoffs.\"We are not seeing a wild drop-off. We are seeing a slight drop-off each of the last three months...If companies are having hourly workers work just a few fewer shifts each of the past three months, that adds up to be something like the early stage of a soft landing in the labor markets,” he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}