To The Moon
Home
News
TigerAI
Log In
Sign Up
Phoenix5104
Life's like a box of chocolate
+Follow
Posts · 580
Posts · 580
Following · 0
Following · 0
Followers · 0
Followers · 0
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-09-01
Lol
"Prepare for an Epic Finale": Jeremy Grantham Warns "Tragedy" Looms as "Superbubble" May Burst
Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and fin
"Prepare for an Epic Finale": Jeremy Grantham Warns "Tragedy" Looms as "Superbubble" May Burst
看
3.43K
回复
1
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-31
Beyond hope
3 Terrible Stocks to Avoid
Big problems plague these beaten-down stocks.
3 Terrible Stocks to Avoid
看
2.78K
回复
Comment
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-30
Tgit
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
2.32K
回复
Comment
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-30
Tgit
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
2.66K
回复
Comment
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-29
Zzzzz
Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer
SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guida
Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer
看
2.16K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-29
Hihi
Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer
SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guida
Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer
看
2.00K
回复
Comment
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-28
Me
Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer
SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guida
Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer
看
2.15K
回复
Comment
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-28
Hihi
Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer
SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guida
Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer
看
4.09K
回复
Comment
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-27
Like me
Powell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty
When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in J
Powell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty
看
2.85K
回复
Comment
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Phoenix5104
Phoenix5104
·
2022-08-27
Hello
Powell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty
When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in J
Powell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty
看
2.56K
回复
Comment
点赞
5
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Load more
Most Discussed
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3585694968236372","uuid":"3585694968236372","gmtCreate":1622600969627,"gmtModify":1623161954770,"name":"Phoenix5104","pinyin":"phoenix5104","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"Life's like a box of chocolate","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":41,"headSize":477,"tweetSize":580,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.09.19","exceedPercentage":"60.82%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.07.12","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.02.20","exceedPercentage":"60.39%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9930430057,"gmtCreate":1661991853082,"gmtModify":1676536618844,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930430057","repostId":"2264232068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2264232068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1661990277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2264232068?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"Prepare for an Epic Finale\": Jeremy Grantham Warns \"Tragedy\" Looms as \"Superbubble\" May Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2264232068","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and fin","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30283c0fa974f75392c6e017fc03beb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and final act.</span></p><p>A "superbubble" appears dangerously near its "final act" after the recent rally in U.S. stocks lured some investors back into the market just ahead of potential "tragedy," according to Jeremy Grantham, the legendary co-founder of Boston-based investment firm GMO.</p><p>Grantham, who has repeatedly warned investors of a bubble in markets, said in a paper Wednesday that "superbubbles are events unlike any others" and share some common features.</p><p>"One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst," said Grantham. "This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern."</p><p>The U.S. stock market tumbled during the first half of 2022 as investors anticipated soaring inflation would lead to a hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 closed at a low this year of 3,666.77 on June 16, before surging over the summer along with other stock benchmarks amid investor optimism over signs that the highest inflation in decades was easing.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently ended that rally with his Aug. 26 speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic symposium, wiping out this month's gains as he reiterated that the central bank would keep tightening its monetary policy to tame soaring inflation. He warned that the Fed would battle inflation until the job was done, even as it may bring pain to households and businesses.</p><p>"The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time," Grantham said. "But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January."</p><p>Grantham had warned in a January paper that the U.S. was approaching the end of a "superbubble" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>In his paper Wednesday, Grantham said "the current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation (with bonds, housing, and stocks all critically overpriced and now rapidly losing momentum), commodity shock, and Fed hawkishness."</p><p>The bursting of superbubbles has multiple stages, according to Grantham.</p><p>First the bubble forms and then a "setback" in valuations -- such as the one seen in the first half of 2022 -- occurs as investors come to realize "perfection" won't last, he said. "Then there is what we have just seen -- the bear-market rally," before finally "fundamentals deteriorate" and the market drops to a low.</p><p>"Bear-market rallies in superbubbles are easier and faster than any other rallies," he said. "Investors surmise, this stock sold for $100 6 months ago, so now at $50, or $60, or $70, it must be cheap."</p><p>At the intraday peak on Aug. 16, the S&P 500 had made back 58% of its losses since its June low, according to Grantham. That was "eerily similar to these other historic superbubbles."</p><p>For example, "from the November low in 1929 to the April 1930 high, the market rallied 46% -- a 55% recovery of the loss from the peak," he said.</p><p>He also highlighted the "speed and scale" of other bear-market rallies.</p><p>"In 1973, the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59% of the S&P 500's total loss from the high," he wrote. More recently, in 2000, Grantham wrote that "the Nasdaq (which had been the main event of the tech bubble) recovered 60% of its initial losses in just 2 months."</p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday, with all three major benchmarks booking a fourth straight day of declines on the final day of August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6%.</p><p>"Economic data inevitably lags major turning points in the economy," said Grantham. "To make matters worse, at the turn of events like 2000 and 2007, data series like corporate profits and employment can subsequently be massively revised downwards."</p><p>"It is during this lag that the bear-market rally typically occurs," he said. And now the current superbubble appears to have "paused between the third and final act," according to Grantham.</p><p>"Prepare for an epic finale," he said. "If history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy. We must hope this time for a minor one."</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Prepare for an Epic Finale\": Jeremy Grantham Warns \"Tragedy\" Looms as \"Superbubble\" May Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Prepare for an Epic Finale\": Jeremy Grantham Warns \"Tragedy\" Looms as \"Superbubble\" May Burst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-01 07:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30283c0fa974f75392c6e017fc03beb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and final act.</span></p><p>A "superbubble" appears dangerously near its "final act" after the recent rally in U.S. stocks lured some investors back into the market just ahead of potential "tragedy," according to Jeremy Grantham, the legendary co-founder of Boston-based investment firm GMO.</p><p>Grantham, who has repeatedly warned investors of a bubble in markets, said in a paper Wednesday that "superbubbles are events unlike any others" and share some common features.</p><p>"One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst," said Grantham. "This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern."</p><p>The U.S. stock market tumbled during the first half of 2022 as investors anticipated soaring inflation would lead to a hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 closed at a low this year of 3,666.77 on June 16, before surging over the summer along with other stock benchmarks amid investor optimism over signs that the highest inflation in decades was easing.</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently ended that rally with his Aug. 26 speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic symposium, wiping out this month's gains as he reiterated that the central bank would keep tightening its monetary policy to tame soaring inflation. He warned that the Fed would battle inflation until the job was done, even as it may bring pain to households and businesses.</p><p>"The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time," Grantham said. "But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January."</p><p>Grantham had warned in a January paper that the U.S. was approaching the end of a "superbubble" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>In his paper Wednesday, Grantham said "the current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation (with bonds, housing, and stocks all critically overpriced and now rapidly losing momentum), commodity shock, and Fed hawkishness."</p><p>The bursting of superbubbles has multiple stages, according to Grantham.</p><p>First the bubble forms and then a "setback" in valuations -- such as the one seen in the first half of 2022 -- occurs as investors come to realize "perfection" won't last, he said. "Then there is what we have just seen -- the bear-market rally," before finally "fundamentals deteriorate" and the market drops to a low.</p><p>"Bear-market rallies in superbubbles are easier and faster than any other rallies," he said. "Investors surmise, this stock sold for $100 6 months ago, so now at $50, or $60, or $70, it must be cheap."</p><p>At the intraday peak on Aug. 16, the S&P 500 had made back 58% of its losses since its June low, according to Grantham. That was "eerily similar to these other historic superbubbles."</p><p>For example, "from the November low in 1929 to the April 1930 high, the market rallied 46% -- a 55% recovery of the loss from the peak," he said.</p><p>He also highlighted the "speed and scale" of other bear-market rallies.</p><p>"In 1973, the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59% of the S&P 500's total loss from the high," he wrote. More recently, in 2000, Grantham wrote that "the Nasdaq (which had been the main event of the tech bubble) recovered 60% of its initial losses in just 2 months."</p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday, with all three major benchmarks booking a fourth straight day of declines on the final day of August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6%.</p><p>"Economic data inevitably lags major turning points in the economy," said Grantham. "To make matters worse, at the turn of events like 2000 and 2007, data series like corporate profits and employment can subsequently be massively revised downwards."</p><p>"It is during this lag that the bear-market rally typically occurs," he said. And now the current superbubble appears to have "paused between the third and final act," according to Grantham.</p><p>"Prepare for an epic finale," he said. "If history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy. We must hope this time for a minor one."</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2264232068","content_text":"Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, warns that a “superbubble” now appears between its third and final act.A \"superbubble\" appears dangerously near its \"final act\" after the recent rally in U.S. stocks lured some investors back into the market just ahead of potential \"tragedy,\" according to Jeremy Grantham, the legendary co-founder of Boston-based investment firm GMO.Grantham, who has repeatedly warned investors of a bubble in markets, said in a paper Wednesday that \"superbubbles are events unlike any others\" and share some common features.\"One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst,\" said Grantham. \"This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market's initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer's rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern.\"The U.S. stock market tumbled during the first half of 2022 as investors anticipated soaring inflation would lead to a hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 closed at a low this year of 3,666.77 on June 16, before surging over the summer along with other stock benchmarks amid investor optimism over signs that the highest inflation in decades was easing.Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently ended that rally with his Aug. 26 speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic symposium, wiping out this month's gains as he reiterated that the central bank would keep tightening its monetary policy to tame soaring inflation. He warned that the Fed would battle inflation until the job was done, even as it may bring pain to households and businesses.\"The U.S. stock market remains very expensive and an increase in inflation like the one this year has always hurt multiples, although more slowly than normal this time,\" Grantham said. \"But now the fundamentals have also started to deteriorate enormously and surprisingly: Between COVID in China, war in Europe, food and energy crises, record fiscal tightening, and more, the outlook is far grimmer than could have been foreseen in January.\"Grantham had warned in a January paper that the U.S. was approaching the end of a \"superbubble\" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.In his paper Wednesday, Grantham said \"the current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation (with bonds, housing, and stocks all critically overpriced and now rapidly losing momentum), commodity shock, and Fed hawkishness.\"The bursting of superbubbles has multiple stages, according to Grantham.First the bubble forms and then a \"setback\" in valuations -- such as the one seen in the first half of 2022 -- occurs as investors come to realize \"perfection\" won't last, he said. \"Then there is what we have just seen -- the bear-market rally,\" before finally \"fundamentals deteriorate\" and the market drops to a low.\"Bear-market rallies in superbubbles are easier and faster than any other rallies,\" he said. \"Investors surmise, this stock sold for $100 6 months ago, so now at $50, or $60, or $70, it must be cheap.\"At the intraday peak on Aug. 16, the S&P 500 had made back 58% of its losses since its June low, according to Grantham. That was \"eerily similar to these other historic superbubbles.\"For example, \"from the November low in 1929 to the April 1930 high, the market rallied 46% -- a 55% recovery of the loss from the peak,\" he said.He also highlighted the \"speed and scale\" of other bear-market rallies.\"In 1973, the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59% of the S&P 500's total loss from the high,\" he wrote. More recently, in 2000, Grantham wrote that \"the Nasdaq (which had been the main event of the tech bubble) recovered 60% of its initial losses in just 2 months.\"U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday, with all three major benchmarks booking a fourth straight day of declines on the final day of August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6%.\"Economic data inevitably lags major turning points in the economy,\" said Grantham. \"To make matters worse, at the turn of events like 2000 and 2007, data series like corporate profits and employment can subsequently be massively revised downwards.\"\"It is during this lag that the bear-market rally typically occurs,\" he said. And now the current superbubble appears to have \"paused between the third and final act,\" according to Grantham.\"Prepare for an epic finale,\" he said. \"If history repeats, the play will once again be a Tragedy. We must hope this time for a minor one.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"END":1,"SPY":0.79,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930074786,"gmtCreate":1661895409147,"gmtModify":1676536595856,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beyond hope","listText":"Beyond hope","text":"Beyond hope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930074786","repostId":"2263460679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2263460679","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1661872861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2263460679?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-30 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Terrible Stocks to Avoid","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2263460679","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Big problems plague these beaten-down stocks.","content":"<div>\n<p>Investing is as much about avoiding costly mistakes as it is about finding winning stocks. In a market like this one, pummeled by sky-high inflation, interest rate concerns, and recession fears, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/30/3-terrible-stocks-to-avoid/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Terrible Stocks to Avoid</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Terrible Stocks to Avoid\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-30 23:21 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/30/3-terrible-stocks-to-avoid/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investing is as much about avoiding costly mistakes as it is about finding winning stocks. In a market like this one, pummeled by sky-high inflation, interest rate concerns, and recession fears, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/30/3-terrible-stocks-to-avoid/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/30/3-terrible-stocks-to-avoid/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2263460679","content_text":"Investing is as much about avoiding costly mistakes as it is about finding winning stocks. In a market like this one, pummeled by sky-high inflation, interest rate concerns, and recession fears, staying away from stocks that are unlikely to produce decent returns in the long run is particularly important.There are bad stocks, and then there are Beyond Meat, Peloton, and Coinbase. All three companies are struggling with plunging demand, losing heaps of money, and dependent on fads or frenzies. It's best to keep your distance.Beyond MeatAs inflation puts pressure on consumers, fake meat products have been tossed out of the grocery cart. Overall sales of refrigerated plant-based meat products in the U.S. are contracting at a double-digit rate as people become unwilling to pay a hefty premium.Beyond Meat is gaining market share against a deluge of competition, but that doesn't matter much in a shrinking market. The company reported a 1.6% revenue decline in the second quarter, and that was the good news.Demand has tumbled by so much that Beyond Meat was forced to unload a bunch of its inventory through liquidation channels. Gross margin was negative in the second quarter thanks to this fake meat fire sale and the effect of the Beyond Meat Jerky launch, which has underperformed the company's expectations.Beyond Meat posted a net loss of $97.1 million on $147 million of revenue in the second quarter, and it slashed its revenue outlook for the full year. Layoffs will help bring down costs, but the company is likely to need to raise additional capital at some point. The balance sheet has $455 million in cash and $1.1 billion in debt -- that cash won't last long if business doesn't improve. Beyond Meat posted a free cash flow loss of $476 million through the first six months of the year.If fake meat turns out to be a fad, Beyond Meat is in major trouble. And even if the category has staying power, intense competition will make it difficult for Beyond Meat to earn enough in profit to justify its $1.6 billion market cap. Just as customers are staying away from Beyond Meat's products in the grocery store, investors should stay away from the stock.PelotonConnected fitness company Peloton is the quintessential example of what happens when a company mistakenly believes a temporary tailwind will become permanent. Demand for the company's expensive exercise bikes was intense during the worst of the pandemic, and Peloton scaled up under the assumption that it was the new normal. It was not.As people head back to gyms and workout classes, demand for Peloton's equipment has imploded. Sales of equipment plunged 55% year over year in the company's fiscal fourth quarter. Peloton has outsourced manufacturing, turned to selling on Amazon, laid off employees, and given customers a self-assembly option as it aims to cut costs and boost sales.Even more concerning is the subscription business. Peloton's bikes and treadmills require a pricey $44 monthly subscription to access video content and enable real-time performance tracking features. The company faced little churn during most of the pandemic, but that's starting to change. Churn nearly doubled in the fourth quarter, and members cut down on usage by more than 20% on average. All this points to a sizable chunk of the install base that may be considering cancellation.Under new CEO Barry McCarthy, Peloton has set an ambitious goal of someday reaching 100 million members. After a disastrous quarter that makes a strong argument that Peloton's popularity is fading, that target looks downright impossible. Fitness fads come and go, and it will take a herculean effort to save Peloton from suffering the same fate as so many other once-popular fitness brands. This is a turnaround story that likely doesn't have a happy ending.CoinbaseIt turns out it's easy to make money as a cryptocurrency exchange when cryptocurrency is in a bubble and FOMO has taken hold of millions. Once the bubble pops, it's a very different story.Coinbase has over 100 million verified users, and over $200 billion in transactions are processed on its platform each quarter. The problem is that trading volume is way down from its peak last year. Coinbase processed over $500 billion worth of trades in the fourth quarter of 2021.As trading volume has come down, so has revenue, since Coinbase makes most of its money from transaction fees on retail trades. Revenue plunged 61% year over year in the second quarter to $803 million, and net income swung to a $1.1 billion loss. Even adjusted EBITDA, which is a nonsense metric, turned negative.Coinbase is still valued at around $15 billion. The company is turning to subscription products as competition intensifies, and subscriptions and services now account for 18% of revenue. Unfortunately, that's mostly a reflection of plunging transaction revenue. Subscription and services revenue was down 30% in the second quarter from its peak in the fourth quarter of 2021.Is Coinbase a business that's still going to exist 20 years from now? I honestly have no idea. That's a good enough reason for me to avoid the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTON":0.9,"BYND":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997683506,"gmtCreate":1661808963542,"gmtModify":1676536579900,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tgit","listText":"Tgit","text":"Tgit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997683506","repostId":"2262162956","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997683857,"gmtCreate":1661808946282,"gmtModify":1676536579893,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tgit","listText":"Tgit","text":"Tgit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997683857","repostId":"2262162956","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994772047,"gmtCreate":1661722573692,"gmtModify":1676536563938,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zzzzz","listText":"Zzzzz","text":"Zzzzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994772047","repostId":"1161837457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161837457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661645647,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161837457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161837457","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guida","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Massive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.</li><li>Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.</li><li>Nvidia’s FY 2023 revenue estimates are set for a major downward revision.</li></ul><p>Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) finally released highly anticipated earnings for its second fiscal quarter of FY 2023. Part of the earnings report card was the outlook for Nvidia's third fiscal quarter, which was significantly worse than expected. Nvidia is seeing a massiveslowdown in its Gaming business due to weakening demand and pricing for graphics processing units which have supported the chip maker's results last year. Because of the size of the expected revenue drop-off in FQ3'23, Nvidia's shares are likely set to correct further to the downside!</p><p><b>Nvidia's FQ2'23 earnings card was as expected</b></p><p>Nvidia's second quarter results largely conformed with the release of preliminary results from the beginning of August. Nvidia guided for $6.7B in FQ2 revenues due to a 33% year-over-year top line decrease in the Gaming segment. Actual revenues for Nvidia's FQ2'23 were indeed $6.7B, showing 3% growth year-over-year, but also a 19% drop-off compared to FQ1. Unfortunately, Nvidia's gross margins collapsed in the second fiscal quarter to 45.9%, showing a decrease of 21.1 PP quarter-over-quarter. The drop in revenues and gross margins was overwhelmingly caused by the Gaming segment which reported, as expected, a 44% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues due toweakening demand for GPUs and declining pricing strengthfor Nvidia's graphic cards. Weakening pricing for GPUsalso affected AMDin the last quarter, but Nvidia is more reliant on GPU sales than AMD and therefore more affected than its rival by the slowdown in the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9690c900cda9585b16d72361723e11ca\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nvidia: Final FQ2'23 Results</p><p>Nvidia's Data Center revenues soared 61% year-over-year to $3.8B in FQ2 due to growing customer uptake of Nvidia's computing platforms that support data analysis and allow for the managing and scaling of artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's Data Center business, because of the slowdown in the GPU segment, pulled ahead of Nvidia's Gaming segment regarding revenue generation in FQ2.</p><p>While Nvidia's Gaming business saw the biggest slowdown, the firm's 'OEM and Other' business -- which includes the sale of dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors/CMPs -- also slumped. Nvidia's CMPs are used by cryptocurrency miners to validate transactions for proof of work cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD).</p><p>Nvidia doesn't break out how much of its OEM revenues are related to CMP sales, but crashing cryptocurrency prices in 2022 have not been good for business, obviously. Nvidia generated just $140M of OEM and Other revenues in FQ2, showing a decline of 66% year-over-year, due chiefly to decelerating demand for dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors. For those reasons, I don't see Nvidia developing its CMP business into a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity, aspredicted previously, in the near term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021fa94ce8462c4eecb6cdfc173dd154\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nvidia: Segment Revenue Trends</p><p><b>Nightmarish guidance</b></p><p>The most important piece of new information in Nvidia's release was the outlook for FQ3. Nvidia expects revenues of $5.90B plus or minus $118M, which would mark another 12% quarter-over-quarter decrease in consolidated revenues, which comes on top of the 19% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues in FQ2. On an annualized basis, FQ3 revenues are down 29% compared to the beginning of the year, which marks a massive slowdown in Nvidia's business. The revenue downgrade for FQ3 occurred as Nvidia expects the Gaming industry to adjust to lower GPU demand and work throughhigh inventory levels. Nvidia's revenue guidance of $5.9B for FQ3 compares to aconsensus FQ3 estimate of $6.9B, meaning actual guidance was a massive $1.0B below the most recent revenue prediction.</p><p>I expected a sequential down-turn in revenues, led by Gaming, and projected FQ3 revenues to be between $6.0B to $6.2B, which reflected a sequential decline of up to 10%. Apparently, the situation in the Gaming industry is even more serious for Nvidia than expected, and it will affect how the market generates revenue estimates and values the stock going forward.</p><h3>My expectations for Nvidia going forward</h3><p>I expect Nvidia to continue to expand its Data Center business as demand for cloud computing, AI applications and hyper-scale platforms is only going to grow. However, I expect growth in this segment to be overshadowed by continual declines and pricing weakness in the Gaming segment. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% (according toGartner) in 2022, but I believe the drop could be even larger if a deeper US recession were to bite.</p><p>Since there is no short-term solution to getting rid of high inventories in the PC industry, I expect pricing weakness in the GPU market to weigh on Nvidia's revenue potential. I also expect the pricing trend for both NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 30 and AMD's Radeon RX 6000 to remain negative, with larger discounts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price possible. Nvidia's RTX 30 GPU was available at a 9% discount to MSRP in July. Given the high inventory levels in the PC market paired with a drop-off in GPU demand, I expect Nvidia's flagship graphics card to trade at even higher discount to the MSRP going forward.</p><p>Because of the headwinds in the Gaming business, I expect Nvidia to generate about $27B in full-year revenues in FY 2023 (down from $28B), which means the chip maker could see no year-over-year growth whatsoever this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297c23d10b4798c94de6cfa3ff793b91\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p><p><b>Estimate and valuation risk</b></p><p>Nvidia's revenue estimates are now going to reset after the chip maker submitted a seriously bad guidance for its third fiscal quarter. As analysts incorporate Nvidia's FQ3'23 revenue guidance into their projections, Nvidia is likely going to see a massive, broad-based reduction for its FY 2023 revenue predictions. Since lofty revenue expectations have been used to justify Nvidia's generous valuation, a reset of expectations has the potential to drive a downward revaluation of Nvidia's shares.</p><p>Nvidia's shares dropped 4.6% after regular trading yesterday and, I believe, the drop does not accurately reflect the seriousness of the sequential revenue downgrade. Nvidia currently has a P-S ratio of 12.2x, and if revenue estimates continue to fall, the valuation factor may even increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92263effbea15a27a9d0154ceff211d1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Yeardata by YCharts</p><p><b>Other risks/considerations with Nvidia</b></p><p>I see two big risks for Nvidia at this point in time. The first one is that the slowdown in the GPU market may last for quite some time, meaning Nvidia may have to deal with slowing Gaming segment revenues for more than just one more quarter. This is because thePC market is in a declinewhich affects the shipment of Nvidia's GPUs. Secondly, revenue and earnings estimates, especially after the nightmarish guidance for FQ3'23, will reflect a reset of growth expectations which in itself could lead Nvidia's shares into a new down-leg.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>Shares of Nvidia dropped 4.6% after the market closed, but I believe the sharpness of the expected revenue decline in FQ3 is not accurately reflected in this drop. The guidance truly is a game-changer because Nvidia's period of hyper-growth is ending.</p><p>Nvidia's outlook for FQ3'23 revenues was $1.0B below expectations and the company is going through a major post-pandemic reset in the GPU market… which could affect Nvidia's valuation much more severely going forward. As estimates correct to the downside, Nvidia's valuation is set to experience more pressure!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 08:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.Nvidia’s FY 2023 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161837457","content_text":"SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.Nvidia’s FY 2023 revenue estimates are set for a major downward revision.Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) finally released highly anticipated earnings for its second fiscal quarter of FY 2023. Part of the earnings report card was the outlook for Nvidia's third fiscal quarter, which was significantly worse than expected. Nvidia is seeing a massiveslowdown in its Gaming business due to weakening demand and pricing for graphics processing units which have supported the chip maker's results last year. Because of the size of the expected revenue drop-off in FQ3'23, Nvidia's shares are likely set to correct further to the downside!Nvidia's FQ2'23 earnings card was as expectedNvidia's second quarter results largely conformed with the release of preliminary results from the beginning of August. Nvidia guided for $6.7B in FQ2 revenues due to a 33% year-over-year top line decrease in the Gaming segment. Actual revenues for Nvidia's FQ2'23 were indeed $6.7B, showing 3% growth year-over-year, but also a 19% drop-off compared to FQ1. Unfortunately, Nvidia's gross margins collapsed in the second fiscal quarter to 45.9%, showing a decrease of 21.1 PP quarter-over-quarter. The drop in revenues and gross margins was overwhelmingly caused by the Gaming segment which reported, as expected, a 44% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues due toweakening demand for GPUs and declining pricing strengthfor Nvidia's graphic cards. Weakening pricing for GPUsalso affected AMDin the last quarter, but Nvidia is more reliant on GPU sales than AMD and therefore more affected than its rival by the slowdown in the industry.Nvidia: Final FQ2'23 ResultsNvidia's Data Center revenues soared 61% year-over-year to $3.8B in FQ2 due to growing customer uptake of Nvidia's computing platforms that support data analysis and allow for the managing and scaling of artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's Data Center business, because of the slowdown in the GPU segment, pulled ahead of Nvidia's Gaming segment regarding revenue generation in FQ2.While Nvidia's Gaming business saw the biggest slowdown, the firm's 'OEM and Other' business -- which includes the sale of dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors/CMPs -- also slumped. Nvidia's CMPs are used by cryptocurrency miners to validate transactions for proof of work cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD).Nvidia doesn't break out how much of its OEM revenues are related to CMP sales, but crashing cryptocurrency prices in 2022 have not been good for business, obviously. Nvidia generated just $140M of OEM and Other revenues in FQ2, showing a decline of 66% year-over-year, due chiefly to decelerating demand for dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors. For those reasons, I don't see Nvidia developing its CMP business into a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity, aspredicted previously, in the near term.Nvidia: Segment Revenue TrendsNightmarish guidanceThe most important piece of new information in Nvidia's release was the outlook for FQ3. Nvidia expects revenues of $5.90B plus or minus $118M, which would mark another 12% quarter-over-quarter decrease in consolidated revenues, which comes on top of the 19% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues in FQ2. On an annualized basis, FQ3 revenues are down 29% compared to the beginning of the year, which marks a massive slowdown in Nvidia's business. The revenue downgrade for FQ3 occurred as Nvidia expects the Gaming industry to adjust to lower GPU demand and work throughhigh inventory levels. Nvidia's revenue guidance of $5.9B for FQ3 compares to aconsensus FQ3 estimate of $6.9B, meaning actual guidance was a massive $1.0B below the most recent revenue prediction.I expected a sequential down-turn in revenues, led by Gaming, and projected FQ3 revenues to be between $6.0B to $6.2B, which reflected a sequential decline of up to 10%. Apparently, the situation in the Gaming industry is even more serious for Nvidia than expected, and it will affect how the market generates revenue estimates and values the stock going forward.My expectations for Nvidia going forwardI expect Nvidia to continue to expand its Data Center business as demand for cloud computing, AI applications and hyper-scale platforms is only going to grow. However, I expect growth in this segment to be overshadowed by continual declines and pricing weakness in the Gaming segment. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% (according toGartner) in 2022, but I believe the drop could be even larger if a deeper US recession were to bite.Since there is no short-term solution to getting rid of high inventories in the PC industry, I expect pricing weakness in the GPU market to weigh on Nvidia's revenue potential. I also expect the pricing trend for both NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 30 and AMD's Radeon RX 6000 to remain negative, with larger discounts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price possible. Nvidia's RTX 30 GPU was available at a 9% discount to MSRP in July. Given the high inventory levels in the PC market paired with a drop-off in GPU demand, I expect Nvidia's flagship graphics card to trade at even higher discount to the MSRP going forward.Because of the headwinds in the Gaming business, I expect Nvidia to generate about $27B in full-year revenues in FY 2023 (down from $28B), which means the chip maker could see no year-over-year growth whatsoever this year.NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YChartsEstimate and valuation riskNvidia's revenue estimates are now going to reset after the chip maker submitted a seriously bad guidance for its third fiscal quarter. As analysts incorporate Nvidia's FQ3'23 revenue guidance into their projections, Nvidia is likely going to see a massive, broad-based reduction for its FY 2023 revenue predictions. Since lofty revenue expectations have been used to justify Nvidia's generous valuation, a reset of expectations has the potential to drive a downward revaluation of Nvidia's shares.Nvidia's shares dropped 4.6% after regular trading yesterday and, I believe, the drop does not accurately reflect the seriousness of the sequential revenue downgrade. Nvidia currently has a P-S ratio of 12.2x, and if revenue estimates continue to fall, the valuation factor may even increase.NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Yeardata by YChartsOther risks/considerations with NvidiaI see two big risks for Nvidia at this point in time. The first one is that the slowdown in the GPU market may last for quite some time, meaning Nvidia may have to deal with slowing Gaming segment revenues for more than just one more quarter. This is because thePC market is in a declinewhich affects the shipment of Nvidia's GPUs. Secondly, revenue and earnings estimates, especially after the nightmarish guidance for FQ3'23, will reflect a reset of growth expectations which in itself could lead Nvidia's shares into a new down-leg.Final thoughtsShares of Nvidia dropped 4.6% after the market closed, but I believe the sharpness of the expected revenue decline in FQ3 is not accurately reflected in this drop. The guidance truly is a game-changer because Nvidia's period of hyper-growth is ending.Nvidia's outlook for FQ3'23 revenues was $1.0B below expectations and the company is going through a major post-pandemic reset in the GPU market… which could affect Nvidia's valuation much more severely going forward. As estimates correct to the downside, Nvidia's valuation is set to experience more pressure!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994776764,"gmtCreate":1661722558860,"gmtModify":1676536563934,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hihi","listText":"Hihi","text":"Hihi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994776764","repostId":"1161837457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161837457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661645647,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161837457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161837457","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guida","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Massive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.</li><li>Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.</li><li>Nvidia’s FY 2023 revenue estimates are set for a major downward revision.</li></ul><p>Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) finally released highly anticipated earnings for its second fiscal quarter of FY 2023. Part of the earnings report card was the outlook for Nvidia's third fiscal quarter, which was significantly worse than expected. Nvidia is seeing a massiveslowdown in its Gaming business due to weakening demand and pricing for graphics processing units which have supported the chip maker's results last year. Because of the size of the expected revenue drop-off in FQ3'23, Nvidia's shares are likely set to correct further to the downside!</p><p><b>Nvidia's FQ2'23 earnings card was as expected</b></p><p>Nvidia's second quarter results largely conformed with the release of preliminary results from the beginning of August. Nvidia guided for $6.7B in FQ2 revenues due to a 33% year-over-year top line decrease in the Gaming segment. Actual revenues for Nvidia's FQ2'23 were indeed $6.7B, showing 3% growth year-over-year, but also a 19% drop-off compared to FQ1. Unfortunately, Nvidia's gross margins collapsed in the second fiscal quarter to 45.9%, showing a decrease of 21.1 PP quarter-over-quarter. The drop in revenues and gross margins was overwhelmingly caused by the Gaming segment which reported, as expected, a 44% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues due toweakening demand for GPUs and declining pricing strengthfor Nvidia's graphic cards. Weakening pricing for GPUsalso affected AMDin the last quarter, but Nvidia is more reliant on GPU sales than AMD and therefore more affected than its rival by the slowdown in the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9690c900cda9585b16d72361723e11ca\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nvidia: Final FQ2'23 Results</p><p>Nvidia's Data Center revenues soared 61% year-over-year to $3.8B in FQ2 due to growing customer uptake of Nvidia's computing platforms that support data analysis and allow for the managing and scaling of artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's Data Center business, because of the slowdown in the GPU segment, pulled ahead of Nvidia's Gaming segment regarding revenue generation in FQ2.</p><p>While Nvidia's Gaming business saw the biggest slowdown, the firm's 'OEM and Other' business -- which includes the sale of dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors/CMPs -- also slumped. Nvidia's CMPs are used by cryptocurrency miners to validate transactions for proof of work cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD).</p><p>Nvidia doesn't break out how much of its OEM revenues are related to CMP sales, but crashing cryptocurrency prices in 2022 have not been good for business, obviously. Nvidia generated just $140M of OEM and Other revenues in FQ2, showing a decline of 66% year-over-year, due chiefly to decelerating demand for dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors. For those reasons, I don't see Nvidia developing its CMP business into a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity, aspredicted previously, in the near term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021fa94ce8462c4eecb6cdfc173dd154\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nvidia: Segment Revenue Trends</p><p><b>Nightmarish guidance</b></p><p>The most important piece of new information in Nvidia's release was the outlook for FQ3. Nvidia expects revenues of $5.90B plus or minus $118M, which would mark another 12% quarter-over-quarter decrease in consolidated revenues, which comes on top of the 19% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues in FQ2. On an annualized basis, FQ3 revenues are down 29% compared to the beginning of the year, which marks a massive slowdown in Nvidia's business. The revenue downgrade for FQ3 occurred as Nvidia expects the Gaming industry to adjust to lower GPU demand and work throughhigh inventory levels. Nvidia's revenue guidance of $5.9B for FQ3 compares to aconsensus FQ3 estimate of $6.9B, meaning actual guidance was a massive $1.0B below the most recent revenue prediction.</p><p>I expected a sequential down-turn in revenues, led by Gaming, and projected FQ3 revenues to be between $6.0B to $6.2B, which reflected a sequential decline of up to 10%. Apparently, the situation in the Gaming industry is even more serious for Nvidia than expected, and it will affect how the market generates revenue estimates and values the stock going forward.</p><h3>My expectations for Nvidia going forward</h3><p>I expect Nvidia to continue to expand its Data Center business as demand for cloud computing, AI applications and hyper-scale platforms is only going to grow. However, I expect growth in this segment to be overshadowed by continual declines and pricing weakness in the Gaming segment. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% (according toGartner) in 2022, but I believe the drop could be even larger if a deeper US recession were to bite.</p><p>Since there is no short-term solution to getting rid of high inventories in the PC industry, I expect pricing weakness in the GPU market to weigh on Nvidia's revenue potential. I also expect the pricing trend for both NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 30 and AMD's Radeon RX 6000 to remain negative, with larger discounts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price possible. Nvidia's RTX 30 GPU was available at a 9% discount to MSRP in July. Given the high inventory levels in the PC market paired with a drop-off in GPU demand, I expect Nvidia's flagship graphics card to trade at even higher discount to the MSRP going forward.</p><p>Because of the headwinds in the Gaming business, I expect Nvidia to generate about $27B in full-year revenues in FY 2023 (down from $28B), which means the chip maker could see no year-over-year growth whatsoever this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297c23d10b4798c94de6cfa3ff793b91\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p><p><b>Estimate and valuation risk</b></p><p>Nvidia's revenue estimates are now going to reset after the chip maker submitted a seriously bad guidance for its third fiscal quarter. As analysts incorporate Nvidia's FQ3'23 revenue guidance into their projections, Nvidia is likely going to see a massive, broad-based reduction for its FY 2023 revenue predictions. Since lofty revenue expectations have been used to justify Nvidia's generous valuation, a reset of expectations has the potential to drive a downward revaluation of Nvidia's shares.</p><p>Nvidia's shares dropped 4.6% after regular trading yesterday and, I believe, the drop does not accurately reflect the seriousness of the sequential revenue downgrade. Nvidia currently has a P-S ratio of 12.2x, and if revenue estimates continue to fall, the valuation factor may even increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92263effbea15a27a9d0154ceff211d1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Yeardata by YCharts</p><p><b>Other risks/considerations with Nvidia</b></p><p>I see two big risks for Nvidia at this point in time. The first one is that the slowdown in the GPU market may last for quite some time, meaning Nvidia may have to deal with slowing Gaming segment revenues for more than just one more quarter. This is because thePC market is in a declinewhich affects the shipment of Nvidia's GPUs. Secondly, revenue and earnings estimates, especially after the nightmarish guidance for FQ3'23, will reflect a reset of growth expectations which in itself could lead Nvidia's shares into a new down-leg.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>Shares of Nvidia dropped 4.6% after the market closed, but I believe the sharpness of the expected revenue decline in FQ3 is not accurately reflected in this drop. The guidance truly is a game-changer because Nvidia's period of hyper-growth is ending.</p><p>Nvidia's outlook for FQ3'23 revenues was $1.0B below expectations and the company is going through a major post-pandemic reset in the GPU market… which could affect Nvidia's valuation much more severely going forward. As estimates correct to the downside, Nvidia's valuation is set to experience more pressure!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 08:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.Nvidia’s FY 2023 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161837457","content_text":"SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.Nvidia’s FY 2023 revenue estimates are set for a major downward revision.Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) finally released highly anticipated earnings for its second fiscal quarter of FY 2023. Part of the earnings report card was the outlook for Nvidia's third fiscal quarter, which was significantly worse than expected. Nvidia is seeing a massiveslowdown in its Gaming business due to weakening demand and pricing for graphics processing units which have supported the chip maker's results last year. Because of the size of the expected revenue drop-off in FQ3'23, Nvidia's shares are likely set to correct further to the downside!Nvidia's FQ2'23 earnings card was as expectedNvidia's second quarter results largely conformed with the release of preliminary results from the beginning of August. Nvidia guided for $6.7B in FQ2 revenues due to a 33% year-over-year top line decrease in the Gaming segment. Actual revenues for Nvidia's FQ2'23 were indeed $6.7B, showing 3% growth year-over-year, but also a 19% drop-off compared to FQ1. Unfortunately, Nvidia's gross margins collapsed in the second fiscal quarter to 45.9%, showing a decrease of 21.1 PP quarter-over-quarter. The drop in revenues and gross margins was overwhelmingly caused by the Gaming segment which reported, as expected, a 44% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues due toweakening demand for GPUs and declining pricing strengthfor Nvidia's graphic cards. Weakening pricing for GPUsalso affected AMDin the last quarter, but Nvidia is more reliant on GPU sales than AMD and therefore more affected than its rival by the slowdown in the industry.Nvidia: Final FQ2'23 ResultsNvidia's Data Center revenues soared 61% year-over-year to $3.8B in FQ2 due to growing customer uptake of Nvidia's computing platforms that support data analysis and allow for the managing and scaling of artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's Data Center business, because of the slowdown in the GPU segment, pulled ahead of Nvidia's Gaming segment regarding revenue generation in FQ2.While Nvidia's Gaming business saw the biggest slowdown, the firm's 'OEM and Other' business -- which includes the sale of dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors/CMPs -- also slumped. Nvidia's CMPs are used by cryptocurrency miners to validate transactions for proof of work cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD).Nvidia doesn't break out how much of its OEM revenues are related to CMP sales, but crashing cryptocurrency prices in 2022 have not been good for business, obviously. Nvidia generated just $140M of OEM and Other revenues in FQ2, showing a decline of 66% year-over-year, due chiefly to decelerating demand for dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors. For those reasons, I don't see Nvidia developing its CMP business into a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity, aspredicted previously, in the near term.Nvidia: Segment Revenue TrendsNightmarish guidanceThe most important piece of new information in Nvidia's release was the outlook for FQ3. Nvidia expects revenues of $5.90B plus or minus $118M, which would mark another 12% quarter-over-quarter decrease in consolidated revenues, which comes on top of the 19% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues in FQ2. On an annualized basis, FQ3 revenues are down 29% compared to the beginning of the year, which marks a massive slowdown in Nvidia's business. The revenue downgrade for FQ3 occurred as Nvidia expects the Gaming industry to adjust to lower GPU demand and work throughhigh inventory levels. Nvidia's revenue guidance of $5.9B for FQ3 compares to aconsensus FQ3 estimate of $6.9B, meaning actual guidance was a massive $1.0B below the most recent revenue prediction.I expected a sequential down-turn in revenues, led by Gaming, and projected FQ3 revenues to be between $6.0B to $6.2B, which reflected a sequential decline of up to 10%. Apparently, the situation in the Gaming industry is even more serious for Nvidia than expected, and it will affect how the market generates revenue estimates and values the stock going forward.My expectations for Nvidia going forwardI expect Nvidia to continue to expand its Data Center business as demand for cloud computing, AI applications and hyper-scale platforms is only going to grow. However, I expect growth in this segment to be overshadowed by continual declines and pricing weakness in the Gaming segment. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% (according toGartner) in 2022, but I believe the drop could be even larger if a deeper US recession were to bite.Since there is no short-term solution to getting rid of high inventories in the PC industry, I expect pricing weakness in the GPU market to weigh on Nvidia's revenue potential. I also expect the pricing trend for both NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 30 and AMD's Radeon RX 6000 to remain negative, with larger discounts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price possible. Nvidia's RTX 30 GPU was available at a 9% discount to MSRP in July. Given the high inventory levels in the PC market paired with a drop-off in GPU demand, I expect Nvidia's flagship graphics card to trade at even higher discount to the MSRP going forward.Because of the headwinds in the Gaming business, I expect Nvidia to generate about $27B in full-year revenues in FY 2023 (down from $28B), which means the chip maker could see no year-over-year growth whatsoever this year.NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YChartsEstimate and valuation riskNvidia's revenue estimates are now going to reset after the chip maker submitted a seriously bad guidance for its third fiscal quarter. As analysts incorporate Nvidia's FQ3'23 revenue guidance into their projections, Nvidia is likely going to see a massive, broad-based reduction for its FY 2023 revenue predictions. Since lofty revenue expectations have been used to justify Nvidia's generous valuation, a reset of expectations has the potential to drive a downward revaluation of Nvidia's shares.Nvidia's shares dropped 4.6% after regular trading yesterday and, I believe, the drop does not accurately reflect the seriousness of the sequential revenue downgrade. Nvidia currently has a P-S ratio of 12.2x, and if revenue estimates continue to fall, the valuation factor may even increase.NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Yeardata by YChartsOther risks/considerations with NvidiaI see two big risks for Nvidia at this point in time. The first one is that the slowdown in the GPU market may last for quite some time, meaning Nvidia may have to deal with slowing Gaming segment revenues for more than just one more quarter. This is because thePC market is in a declinewhich affects the shipment of Nvidia's GPUs. Secondly, revenue and earnings estimates, especially after the nightmarish guidance for FQ3'23, will reflect a reset of growth expectations which in itself could lead Nvidia's shares into a new down-leg.Final thoughtsShares of Nvidia dropped 4.6% after the market closed, but I believe the sharpness of the expected revenue decline in FQ3 is not accurately reflected in this drop. The guidance truly is a game-changer because Nvidia's period of hyper-growth is ending.Nvidia's outlook for FQ3'23 revenues was $1.0B below expectations and the company is going through a major post-pandemic reset in the GPU market… which could affect Nvidia's valuation much more severely going forward. As estimates correct to the downside, Nvidia's valuation is set to experience more pressure!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994268824,"gmtCreate":1661649668069,"gmtModify":1676536553942,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Me","listText":"Me","text":"Me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994268824","repostId":"1161837457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161837457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661645647,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161837457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161837457","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guida","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Massive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.</li><li>Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.</li><li>Nvidia’s FY 2023 revenue estimates are set for a major downward revision.</li></ul><p>Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) finally released highly anticipated earnings for its second fiscal quarter of FY 2023. Part of the earnings report card was the outlook for Nvidia's third fiscal quarter, which was significantly worse than expected. Nvidia is seeing a massiveslowdown in its Gaming business due to weakening demand and pricing for graphics processing units which have supported the chip maker's results last year. Because of the size of the expected revenue drop-off in FQ3'23, Nvidia's shares are likely set to correct further to the downside!</p><p><b>Nvidia's FQ2'23 earnings card was as expected</b></p><p>Nvidia's second quarter results largely conformed with the release of preliminary results from the beginning of August. Nvidia guided for $6.7B in FQ2 revenues due to a 33% year-over-year top line decrease in the Gaming segment. Actual revenues for Nvidia's FQ2'23 were indeed $6.7B, showing 3% growth year-over-year, but also a 19% drop-off compared to FQ1. Unfortunately, Nvidia's gross margins collapsed in the second fiscal quarter to 45.9%, showing a decrease of 21.1 PP quarter-over-quarter. The drop in revenues and gross margins was overwhelmingly caused by the Gaming segment which reported, as expected, a 44% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues due toweakening demand for GPUs and declining pricing strengthfor Nvidia's graphic cards. Weakening pricing for GPUsalso affected AMDin the last quarter, but Nvidia is more reliant on GPU sales than AMD and therefore more affected than its rival by the slowdown in the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9690c900cda9585b16d72361723e11ca\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nvidia: Final FQ2'23 Results</p><p>Nvidia's Data Center revenues soared 61% year-over-year to $3.8B in FQ2 due to growing customer uptake of Nvidia's computing platforms that support data analysis and allow for the managing and scaling of artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's Data Center business, because of the slowdown in the GPU segment, pulled ahead of Nvidia's Gaming segment regarding revenue generation in FQ2.</p><p>While Nvidia's Gaming business saw the biggest slowdown, the firm's 'OEM and Other' business -- which includes the sale of dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors/CMPs -- also slumped. Nvidia's CMPs are used by cryptocurrency miners to validate transactions for proof of work cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD).</p><p>Nvidia doesn't break out how much of its OEM revenues are related to CMP sales, but crashing cryptocurrency prices in 2022 have not been good for business, obviously. Nvidia generated just $140M of OEM and Other revenues in FQ2, showing a decline of 66% year-over-year, due chiefly to decelerating demand for dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors. For those reasons, I don't see Nvidia developing its CMP business into a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity, aspredicted previously, in the near term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021fa94ce8462c4eecb6cdfc173dd154\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nvidia: Segment Revenue Trends</p><p><b>Nightmarish guidance</b></p><p>The most important piece of new information in Nvidia's release was the outlook for FQ3. Nvidia expects revenues of $5.90B plus or minus $118M, which would mark another 12% quarter-over-quarter decrease in consolidated revenues, which comes on top of the 19% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues in FQ2. On an annualized basis, FQ3 revenues are down 29% compared to the beginning of the year, which marks a massive slowdown in Nvidia's business. The revenue downgrade for FQ3 occurred as Nvidia expects the Gaming industry to adjust to lower GPU demand and work throughhigh inventory levels. Nvidia's revenue guidance of $5.9B for FQ3 compares to aconsensus FQ3 estimate of $6.9B, meaning actual guidance was a massive $1.0B below the most recent revenue prediction.</p><p>I expected a sequential down-turn in revenues, led by Gaming, and projected FQ3 revenues to be between $6.0B to $6.2B, which reflected a sequential decline of up to 10%. Apparently, the situation in the Gaming industry is even more serious for Nvidia than expected, and it will affect how the market generates revenue estimates and values the stock going forward.</p><h3>My expectations for Nvidia going forward</h3><p>I expect Nvidia to continue to expand its Data Center business as demand for cloud computing, AI applications and hyper-scale platforms is only going to grow. However, I expect growth in this segment to be overshadowed by continual declines and pricing weakness in the Gaming segment. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% (according toGartner) in 2022, but I believe the drop could be even larger if a deeper US recession were to bite.</p><p>Since there is no short-term solution to getting rid of high inventories in the PC industry, I expect pricing weakness in the GPU market to weigh on Nvidia's revenue potential. I also expect the pricing trend for both NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 30 and AMD's Radeon RX 6000 to remain negative, with larger discounts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price possible. Nvidia's RTX 30 GPU was available at a 9% discount to MSRP in July. Given the high inventory levels in the PC market paired with a drop-off in GPU demand, I expect Nvidia's flagship graphics card to trade at even higher discount to the MSRP going forward.</p><p>Because of the headwinds in the Gaming business, I expect Nvidia to generate about $27B in full-year revenues in FY 2023 (down from $28B), which means the chip maker could see no year-over-year growth whatsoever this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297c23d10b4798c94de6cfa3ff793b91\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p><p><b>Estimate and valuation risk</b></p><p>Nvidia's revenue estimates are now going to reset after the chip maker submitted a seriously bad guidance for its third fiscal quarter. As analysts incorporate Nvidia's FQ3'23 revenue guidance into their projections, Nvidia is likely going to see a massive, broad-based reduction for its FY 2023 revenue predictions. Since lofty revenue expectations have been used to justify Nvidia's generous valuation, a reset of expectations has the potential to drive a downward revaluation of Nvidia's shares.</p><p>Nvidia's shares dropped 4.6% after regular trading yesterday and, I believe, the drop does not accurately reflect the seriousness of the sequential revenue downgrade. Nvidia currently has a P-S ratio of 12.2x, and if revenue estimates continue to fall, the valuation factor may even increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92263effbea15a27a9d0154ceff211d1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Yeardata by YCharts</p><p><b>Other risks/considerations with Nvidia</b></p><p>I see two big risks for Nvidia at this point in time. The first one is that the slowdown in the GPU market may last for quite some time, meaning Nvidia may have to deal with slowing Gaming segment revenues for more than just one more quarter. This is because thePC market is in a declinewhich affects the shipment of Nvidia's GPUs. Secondly, revenue and earnings estimates, especially after the nightmarish guidance for FQ3'23, will reflect a reset of growth expectations which in itself could lead Nvidia's shares into a new down-leg.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>Shares of Nvidia dropped 4.6% after the market closed, but I believe the sharpness of the expected revenue decline in FQ3 is not accurately reflected in this drop. The guidance truly is a game-changer because Nvidia's period of hyper-growth is ending.</p><p>Nvidia's outlook for FQ3'23 revenues was $1.0B below expectations and the company is going through a major post-pandemic reset in the GPU market… which could affect Nvidia's valuation much more severely going forward. As estimates correct to the downside, Nvidia's valuation is set to experience more pressure!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 08:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.Nvidia’s FY 2023 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161837457","content_text":"SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.Nvidia’s FY 2023 revenue estimates are set for a major downward revision.Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) finally released highly anticipated earnings for its second fiscal quarter of FY 2023. Part of the earnings report card was the outlook for Nvidia's third fiscal quarter, which was significantly worse than expected. Nvidia is seeing a massiveslowdown in its Gaming business due to weakening demand and pricing for graphics processing units which have supported the chip maker's results last year. Because of the size of the expected revenue drop-off in FQ3'23, Nvidia's shares are likely set to correct further to the downside!Nvidia's FQ2'23 earnings card was as expectedNvidia's second quarter results largely conformed with the release of preliminary results from the beginning of August. Nvidia guided for $6.7B in FQ2 revenues due to a 33% year-over-year top line decrease in the Gaming segment. Actual revenues for Nvidia's FQ2'23 were indeed $6.7B, showing 3% growth year-over-year, but also a 19% drop-off compared to FQ1. Unfortunately, Nvidia's gross margins collapsed in the second fiscal quarter to 45.9%, showing a decrease of 21.1 PP quarter-over-quarter. The drop in revenues and gross margins was overwhelmingly caused by the Gaming segment which reported, as expected, a 44% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues due toweakening demand for GPUs and declining pricing strengthfor Nvidia's graphic cards. Weakening pricing for GPUsalso affected AMDin the last quarter, but Nvidia is more reliant on GPU sales than AMD and therefore more affected than its rival by the slowdown in the industry.Nvidia: Final FQ2'23 ResultsNvidia's Data Center revenues soared 61% year-over-year to $3.8B in FQ2 due to growing customer uptake of Nvidia's computing platforms that support data analysis and allow for the managing and scaling of artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's Data Center business, because of the slowdown in the GPU segment, pulled ahead of Nvidia's Gaming segment regarding revenue generation in FQ2.While Nvidia's Gaming business saw the biggest slowdown, the firm's 'OEM and Other' business -- which includes the sale of dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors/CMPs -- also slumped. Nvidia's CMPs are used by cryptocurrency miners to validate transactions for proof of work cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD).Nvidia doesn't break out how much of its OEM revenues are related to CMP sales, but crashing cryptocurrency prices in 2022 have not been good for business, obviously. Nvidia generated just $140M of OEM and Other revenues in FQ2, showing a decline of 66% year-over-year, due chiefly to decelerating demand for dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors. For those reasons, I don't see Nvidia developing its CMP business into a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity, aspredicted previously, in the near term.Nvidia: Segment Revenue TrendsNightmarish guidanceThe most important piece of new information in Nvidia's release was the outlook for FQ3. Nvidia expects revenues of $5.90B plus or minus $118M, which would mark another 12% quarter-over-quarter decrease in consolidated revenues, which comes on top of the 19% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues in FQ2. On an annualized basis, FQ3 revenues are down 29% compared to the beginning of the year, which marks a massive slowdown in Nvidia's business. The revenue downgrade for FQ3 occurred as Nvidia expects the Gaming industry to adjust to lower GPU demand and work throughhigh inventory levels. Nvidia's revenue guidance of $5.9B for FQ3 compares to aconsensus FQ3 estimate of $6.9B, meaning actual guidance was a massive $1.0B below the most recent revenue prediction.I expected a sequential down-turn in revenues, led by Gaming, and projected FQ3 revenues to be between $6.0B to $6.2B, which reflected a sequential decline of up to 10%. Apparently, the situation in the Gaming industry is even more serious for Nvidia than expected, and it will affect how the market generates revenue estimates and values the stock going forward.My expectations for Nvidia going forwardI expect Nvidia to continue to expand its Data Center business as demand for cloud computing, AI applications and hyper-scale platforms is only going to grow. However, I expect growth in this segment to be overshadowed by continual declines and pricing weakness in the Gaming segment. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% (according toGartner) in 2022, but I believe the drop could be even larger if a deeper US recession were to bite.Since there is no short-term solution to getting rid of high inventories in the PC industry, I expect pricing weakness in the GPU market to weigh on Nvidia's revenue potential. I also expect the pricing trend for both NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 30 and AMD's Radeon RX 6000 to remain negative, with larger discounts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price possible. Nvidia's RTX 30 GPU was available at a 9% discount to MSRP in July. Given the high inventory levels in the PC market paired with a drop-off in GPU demand, I expect Nvidia's flagship graphics card to trade at even higher discount to the MSRP going forward.Because of the headwinds in the Gaming business, I expect Nvidia to generate about $27B in full-year revenues in FY 2023 (down from $28B), which means the chip maker could see no year-over-year growth whatsoever this year.NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YChartsEstimate and valuation riskNvidia's revenue estimates are now going to reset after the chip maker submitted a seriously bad guidance for its third fiscal quarter. As analysts incorporate Nvidia's FQ3'23 revenue guidance into their projections, Nvidia is likely going to see a massive, broad-based reduction for its FY 2023 revenue predictions. Since lofty revenue expectations have been used to justify Nvidia's generous valuation, a reset of expectations has the potential to drive a downward revaluation of Nvidia's shares.Nvidia's shares dropped 4.6% after regular trading yesterday and, I believe, the drop does not accurately reflect the seriousness of the sequential revenue downgrade. Nvidia currently has a P-S ratio of 12.2x, and if revenue estimates continue to fall, the valuation factor may even increase.NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Yeardata by YChartsOther risks/considerations with NvidiaI see two big risks for Nvidia at this point in time. The first one is that the slowdown in the GPU market may last for quite some time, meaning Nvidia may have to deal with slowing Gaming segment revenues for more than just one more quarter. This is because thePC market is in a declinewhich affects the shipment of Nvidia's GPUs. Secondly, revenue and earnings estimates, especially after the nightmarish guidance for FQ3'23, will reflect a reset of growth expectations which in itself could lead Nvidia's shares into a new down-leg.Final thoughtsShares of Nvidia dropped 4.6% after the market closed, but I believe the sharpness of the expected revenue decline in FQ3 is not accurately reflected in this drop. The guidance truly is a game-changer because Nvidia's period of hyper-growth is ending.Nvidia's outlook for FQ3'23 revenues was $1.0B below expectations and the company is going through a major post-pandemic reset in the GPU market… which could affect Nvidia's valuation much more severely going forward. As estimates correct to the downside, Nvidia's valuation is set to experience more pressure!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994268921,"gmtCreate":1661649650865,"gmtModify":1676536553934,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hihi","listText":"Hihi","text":"Hihi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994268921","repostId":"1161837457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161837457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661645647,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161837457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161837457","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guida","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Massive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.</li><li>Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.</li><li>Nvidia’s FY 2023 revenue estimates are set for a major downward revision.</li></ul><p>Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) finally released highly anticipated earnings for its second fiscal quarter of FY 2023. Part of the earnings report card was the outlook for Nvidia's third fiscal quarter, which was significantly worse than expected. Nvidia is seeing a massiveslowdown in its Gaming business due to weakening demand and pricing for graphics processing units which have supported the chip maker's results last year. Because of the size of the expected revenue drop-off in FQ3'23, Nvidia's shares are likely set to correct further to the downside!</p><p><b>Nvidia's FQ2'23 earnings card was as expected</b></p><p>Nvidia's second quarter results largely conformed with the release of preliminary results from the beginning of August. Nvidia guided for $6.7B in FQ2 revenues due to a 33% year-over-year top line decrease in the Gaming segment. Actual revenues for Nvidia's FQ2'23 were indeed $6.7B, showing 3% growth year-over-year, but also a 19% drop-off compared to FQ1. Unfortunately, Nvidia's gross margins collapsed in the second fiscal quarter to 45.9%, showing a decrease of 21.1 PP quarter-over-quarter. The drop in revenues and gross margins was overwhelmingly caused by the Gaming segment which reported, as expected, a 44% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues due toweakening demand for GPUs and declining pricing strengthfor Nvidia's graphic cards. Weakening pricing for GPUsalso affected AMDin the last quarter, but Nvidia is more reliant on GPU sales than AMD and therefore more affected than its rival by the slowdown in the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9690c900cda9585b16d72361723e11ca\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nvidia: Final FQ2'23 Results</p><p>Nvidia's Data Center revenues soared 61% year-over-year to $3.8B in FQ2 due to growing customer uptake of Nvidia's computing platforms that support data analysis and allow for the managing and scaling of artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's Data Center business, because of the slowdown in the GPU segment, pulled ahead of Nvidia's Gaming segment regarding revenue generation in FQ2.</p><p>While Nvidia's Gaming business saw the biggest slowdown, the firm's 'OEM and Other' business -- which includes the sale of dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors/CMPs -- also slumped. Nvidia's CMPs are used by cryptocurrency miners to validate transactions for proof of work cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD).</p><p>Nvidia doesn't break out how much of its OEM revenues are related to CMP sales, but crashing cryptocurrency prices in 2022 have not been good for business, obviously. Nvidia generated just $140M of OEM and Other revenues in FQ2, showing a decline of 66% year-over-year, due chiefly to decelerating demand for dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors. For those reasons, I don't see Nvidia developing its CMP business into a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity, aspredicted previously, in the near term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021fa94ce8462c4eecb6cdfc173dd154\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nvidia: Segment Revenue Trends</p><p><b>Nightmarish guidance</b></p><p>The most important piece of new information in Nvidia's release was the outlook for FQ3. Nvidia expects revenues of $5.90B plus or minus $118M, which would mark another 12% quarter-over-quarter decrease in consolidated revenues, which comes on top of the 19% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues in FQ2. On an annualized basis, FQ3 revenues are down 29% compared to the beginning of the year, which marks a massive slowdown in Nvidia's business. The revenue downgrade for FQ3 occurred as Nvidia expects the Gaming industry to adjust to lower GPU demand and work throughhigh inventory levels. Nvidia's revenue guidance of $5.9B for FQ3 compares to aconsensus FQ3 estimate of $6.9B, meaning actual guidance was a massive $1.0B below the most recent revenue prediction.</p><p>I expected a sequential down-turn in revenues, led by Gaming, and projected FQ3 revenues to be between $6.0B to $6.2B, which reflected a sequential decline of up to 10%. Apparently, the situation in the Gaming industry is even more serious for Nvidia than expected, and it will affect how the market generates revenue estimates and values the stock going forward.</p><h3>My expectations for Nvidia going forward</h3><p>I expect Nvidia to continue to expand its Data Center business as demand for cloud computing, AI applications and hyper-scale platforms is only going to grow. However, I expect growth in this segment to be overshadowed by continual declines and pricing weakness in the Gaming segment. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% (according toGartner) in 2022, but I believe the drop could be even larger if a deeper US recession were to bite.</p><p>Since there is no short-term solution to getting rid of high inventories in the PC industry, I expect pricing weakness in the GPU market to weigh on Nvidia's revenue potential. I also expect the pricing trend for both NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 30 and AMD's Radeon RX 6000 to remain negative, with larger discounts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price possible. Nvidia's RTX 30 GPU was available at a 9% discount to MSRP in July. Given the high inventory levels in the PC market paired with a drop-off in GPU demand, I expect Nvidia's flagship graphics card to trade at even higher discount to the MSRP going forward.</p><p>Because of the headwinds in the Gaming business, I expect Nvidia to generate about $27B in full-year revenues in FY 2023 (down from $28B), which means the chip maker could see no year-over-year growth whatsoever this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297c23d10b4798c94de6cfa3ff793b91\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p><p><b>Estimate and valuation risk</b></p><p>Nvidia's revenue estimates are now going to reset after the chip maker submitted a seriously bad guidance for its third fiscal quarter. As analysts incorporate Nvidia's FQ3'23 revenue guidance into their projections, Nvidia is likely going to see a massive, broad-based reduction for its FY 2023 revenue predictions. Since lofty revenue expectations have been used to justify Nvidia's generous valuation, a reset of expectations has the potential to drive a downward revaluation of Nvidia's shares.</p><p>Nvidia's shares dropped 4.6% after regular trading yesterday and, I believe, the drop does not accurately reflect the seriousness of the sequential revenue downgrade. Nvidia currently has a P-S ratio of 12.2x, and if revenue estimates continue to fall, the valuation factor may even increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92263effbea15a27a9d0154ceff211d1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Yeardata by YCharts</p><p><b>Other risks/considerations with Nvidia</b></p><p>I see two big risks for Nvidia at this point in time. The first one is that the slowdown in the GPU market may last for quite some time, meaning Nvidia may have to deal with slowing Gaming segment revenues for more than just one more quarter. This is because thePC market is in a declinewhich affects the shipment of Nvidia's GPUs. Secondly, revenue and earnings estimates, especially after the nightmarish guidance for FQ3'23, will reflect a reset of growth expectations which in itself could lead Nvidia's shares into a new down-leg.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>Shares of Nvidia dropped 4.6% after the market closed, but I believe the sharpness of the expected revenue decline in FQ3 is not accurately reflected in this drop. The guidance truly is a game-changer because Nvidia's period of hyper-growth is ending.</p><p>Nvidia's outlook for FQ3'23 revenues was $1.0B below expectations and the company is going through a major post-pandemic reset in the GPU market… which could affect Nvidia's valuation much more severely going forward. As estimates correct to the downside, Nvidia's valuation is set to experience more pressure!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Guidance Is A Game-Changer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 08:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.Nvidia’s FY 2023 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537353-nvidia-nvda-guidance-game-changer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161837457","content_text":"SummaryMassive slowdown in the Gaming business is affecting Nvidia’s revenue prospects.Revenue guidance for FQ3 was a real shocker as the outlook underperformed estimates by $1.0B.Nvidia’s FY 2023 revenue estimates are set for a major downward revision.Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) finally released highly anticipated earnings for its second fiscal quarter of FY 2023. Part of the earnings report card was the outlook for Nvidia's third fiscal quarter, which was significantly worse than expected. Nvidia is seeing a massiveslowdown in its Gaming business due to weakening demand and pricing for graphics processing units which have supported the chip maker's results last year. Because of the size of the expected revenue drop-off in FQ3'23, Nvidia's shares are likely set to correct further to the downside!Nvidia's FQ2'23 earnings card was as expectedNvidia's second quarter results largely conformed with the release of preliminary results from the beginning of August. Nvidia guided for $6.7B in FQ2 revenues due to a 33% year-over-year top line decrease in the Gaming segment. Actual revenues for Nvidia's FQ2'23 were indeed $6.7B, showing 3% growth year-over-year, but also a 19% drop-off compared to FQ1. Unfortunately, Nvidia's gross margins collapsed in the second fiscal quarter to 45.9%, showing a decrease of 21.1 PP quarter-over-quarter. The drop in revenues and gross margins was overwhelmingly caused by the Gaming segment which reported, as expected, a 44% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues due toweakening demand for GPUs and declining pricing strengthfor Nvidia's graphic cards. Weakening pricing for GPUsalso affected AMDin the last quarter, but Nvidia is more reliant on GPU sales than AMD and therefore more affected than its rival by the slowdown in the industry.Nvidia: Final FQ2'23 ResultsNvidia's Data Center revenues soared 61% year-over-year to $3.8B in FQ2 due to growing customer uptake of Nvidia's computing platforms that support data analysis and allow for the managing and scaling of artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's Data Center business, because of the slowdown in the GPU segment, pulled ahead of Nvidia's Gaming segment regarding revenue generation in FQ2.While Nvidia's Gaming business saw the biggest slowdown, the firm's 'OEM and Other' business -- which includes the sale of dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors/CMPs -- also slumped. Nvidia's CMPs are used by cryptocurrency miners to validate transactions for proof of work cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD).Nvidia doesn't break out how much of its OEM revenues are related to CMP sales, but crashing cryptocurrency prices in 2022 have not been good for business, obviously. Nvidia generated just $140M of OEM and Other revenues in FQ2, showing a decline of 66% year-over-year, due chiefly to decelerating demand for dedicated cryptocurrency mining processors. For those reasons, I don't see Nvidia developing its CMP business into a multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity, aspredicted previously, in the near term.Nvidia: Segment Revenue TrendsNightmarish guidanceThe most important piece of new information in Nvidia's release was the outlook for FQ3. Nvidia expects revenues of $5.90B plus or minus $118M, which would mark another 12% quarter-over-quarter decrease in consolidated revenues, which comes on top of the 19% quarter-over-quarter drop in revenues in FQ2. On an annualized basis, FQ3 revenues are down 29% compared to the beginning of the year, which marks a massive slowdown in Nvidia's business. The revenue downgrade for FQ3 occurred as Nvidia expects the Gaming industry to adjust to lower GPU demand and work throughhigh inventory levels. Nvidia's revenue guidance of $5.9B for FQ3 compares to aconsensus FQ3 estimate of $6.9B, meaning actual guidance was a massive $1.0B below the most recent revenue prediction.I expected a sequential down-turn in revenues, led by Gaming, and projected FQ3 revenues to be between $6.0B to $6.2B, which reflected a sequential decline of up to 10%. Apparently, the situation in the Gaming industry is even more serious for Nvidia than expected, and it will affect how the market generates revenue estimates and values the stock going forward.My expectations for Nvidia going forwardI expect Nvidia to continue to expand its Data Center business as demand for cloud computing, AI applications and hyper-scale platforms is only going to grow. However, I expect growth in this segment to be overshadowed by continual declines and pricing weakness in the Gaming segment. Worldwide PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% (according toGartner) in 2022, but I believe the drop could be even larger if a deeper US recession were to bite.Since there is no short-term solution to getting rid of high inventories in the PC industry, I expect pricing weakness in the GPU market to weigh on Nvidia's revenue potential. I also expect the pricing trend for both NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 30 and AMD's Radeon RX 6000 to remain negative, with larger discounts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price possible. Nvidia's RTX 30 GPU was available at a 9% discount to MSRP in July. Given the high inventory levels in the PC market paired with a drop-off in GPU demand, I expect Nvidia's flagship graphics card to trade at even higher discount to the MSRP going forward.Because of the headwinds in the Gaming business, I expect Nvidia to generate about $27B in full-year revenues in FY 2023 (down from $28B), which means the chip maker could see no year-over-year growth whatsoever this year.NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YChartsEstimate and valuation riskNvidia's revenue estimates are now going to reset after the chip maker submitted a seriously bad guidance for its third fiscal quarter. As analysts incorporate Nvidia's FQ3'23 revenue guidance into their projections, Nvidia is likely going to see a massive, broad-based reduction for its FY 2023 revenue predictions. Since lofty revenue expectations have been used to justify Nvidia's generous valuation, a reset of expectations has the potential to drive a downward revaluation of Nvidia's shares.Nvidia's shares dropped 4.6% after regular trading yesterday and, I believe, the drop does not accurately reflect the seriousness of the sequential revenue downgrade. Nvidia currently has a P-S ratio of 12.2x, and if revenue estimates continue to fall, the valuation factor may even increase.NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Yeardata by YChartsOther risks/considerations with NvidiaI see two big risks for Nvidia at this point in time. The first one is that the slowdown in the GPU market may last for quite some time, meaning Nvidia may have to deal with slowing Gaming segment revenues for more than just one more quarter. This is because thePC market is in a declinewhich affects the shipment of Nvidia's GPUs. Secondly, revenue and earnings estimates, especially after the nightmarish guidance for FQ3'23, will reflect a reset of growth expectations which in itself could lead Nvidia's shares into a new down-leg.Final thoughtsShares of Nvidia dropped 4.6% after the market closed, but I believe the sharpness of the expected revenue decline in FQ3 is not accurately reflected in this drop. The guidance truly is a game-changer because Nvidia's period of hyper-growth is ending.Nvidia's outlook for FQ3'23 revenues was $1.0B below expectations and the company is going through a major post-pandemic reset in the GPU market… which could affect Nvidia's valuation much more severely going forward. As estimates correct to the downside, Nvidia's valuation is set to experience more pressure!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994133547,"gmtCreate":1661572089491,"gmtModify":1676536544756,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like me","listText":"Like me","text":"Like me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994133547","repostId":"2262838921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2262838921","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1661566425,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2262838921?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-27 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2262838921","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in J","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., he didn't say anything exactly new. But in reinforcing his commitment to restoring price stability, the chairman sounded more resolute than he had in other recent public appearances. "Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct," he said, opening a speech that would last only minutes, mostly stick to the importance of the inflation fight, and highlight how his job is only getting harder.</p><p>"Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone," Powell said, noting that higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor markets are the "unfortunate costs of reducing inflation" and will "bring some pain to households and businesses."</p><p>Strategists agreed that Powell was forceful. In weighing the two legs of the dual mandate -- inflation and economic growth -- the Fed will decidedly come down in favor of reducing inflation, says Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth. "Powell can't come right out and say that the Fed is fine walking us right into recession in order to crush inflation, but that is what this messaging unequivocally implies."</p><p>Yet Powell is only starting to convince markets that he will do whatever it takes to beat inflation. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, says a market fully expecting the Fed to follow through on its pledge would be down at least 20% this year. After Friday's fall of 2.5% in the S&P 500, the index is off 14% in 2022. At the same time, traders on Friday shifted bets toward a half-point hike in September and away from a third consecutive three-quarter-point increase.</p><p>Aside from having to fight markets that have been fighting the Fed -- with summer stock market rallies helping to ease the very financial conditions the central bank is trying to tighten -- Powell has two particular forces working against him.</p><p>First, there is the job market.</p><p>In a report this past week, Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina highlighted growing concerns over labor-force growth. He says that many positive postcrisis labor-force participation trends have sputtered and, in some cases, reversed. Prime-age participation has stalled at a level about 600,000 workers short of the pre-Covid tally. And the number of Americans not in the labor force who don't want a job rose to 19.9 million from 19.5 million over June and July; that's above the pre-Covid trend of about 19.1 million. In addition, the improvement in the labor-force participation rate among lower-skilled workers recently rolled over, Oubina observes.</p><p>Long Covid, or lingering negative effects of the virus, might explain some of the labor-supply problem. Oubina notes that the number of people out of the labor force because of disability is about one million above pre-Covid levels. A new report by Katie Bach at the Brookings Institution finds that around 16 million working-age Americans now have long Covid. Of those, Bach says, two million to four million are out of work, due to the condition. If the labor market is a main transmission mechanism of Fed policy, an acutely short labor supply complicates the picture and may mean labor demand must cool more than appreciated to take pressure off wages and prices.</p><p>The second force working against the Fed is fiscal policy.</p><p>President Joe Biden's student-debt forgiveness plan has ignited an economic debate, alongside a political one. Analysts at the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model say the plan will cost roughly $500 billion over a 10-year budget window. Relative to current law, (assuming that the interest moratorium that has been extended until the end of the year does end), the program will add about 0.2 to 0.3 of a percentage point to inflation, says Jason Furman, economics professor at Harvard University and head of former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.</p><p>Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, says the debt-forgiveness policy will, by design, result in millions of households having more discretionary income. "That is a boost to demand and thus pushes in the direction of rising prices," she says, adding that this will drive up the cost of higher education and loans going forward. She notes that Biden's announcement mentioned that the immediate forgiveness will be paired with more generous forgiveness terms on future loans, which "essentially subsidizes the very sector whose ballooning pricing got so many people into this predicament." And it means that even more people will take out loans in the future, she says, further pushing up the costs of higher education.</p><p>In normal times, Furman's estimate wouldn't seem very significant and Kearney's points would be cause for longer-term concern, but not necessarily for losing sleep. Given how high inflation is now, however, it's a step in the wrong direction that undermines the central bank's efforts to cool demand and cure inflation.</p><p>The Fed does have something working in its favor, and it is the data. The latest indications of cooling prices came Friday, when the personal consumption expenditure index declined from its level a month earlier, slipping to a 6.3% year-over-year pace from 6.8% in June. The core versions, which back out food and energy and represent the Fed's favorite inflation measures, also moved in the right direction. From a year earlier, the core PCE fell to 4.6% from 4.8%, still well above the 2% target, but not nearly as elevated as the consumer price index. Separately on Friday, the University of Michigan revised its latest gauges of inflation expectations slightly lower, to 4.8% for the next year and 2.9% over the next five to 10 years. Powell says that the recent inflation cool-down is welcome, but not enough.</p><p>At this point, the forces working against the Fed outweigh those moving in the right direction. They are all the more reasons to believe Powell when he says that failing to fix inflation isn't an option, and they are reasons to believe policy might be even more painful than it would otherwise have to be.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-27 10:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., he didn't say anything exactly new. But in reinforcing his commitment to restoring price stability, the chairman sounded more resolute than he had in other recent public appearances. "Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct," he said, opening a speech that would last only minutes, mostly stick to the importance of the inflation fight, and highlight how his job is only getting harder.</p><p>"Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone," Powell said, noting that higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor markets are the "unfortunate costs of reducing inflation" and will "bring some pain to households and businesses."</p><p>Strategists agreed that Powell was forceful. In weighing the two legs of the dual mandate -- inflation and economic growth -- the Fed will decidedly come down in favor of reducing inflation, says Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth. "Powell can't come right out and say that the Fed is fine walking us right into recession in order to crush inflation, but that is what this messaging unequivocally implies."</p><p>Yet Powell is only starting to convince markets that he will do whatever it takes to beat inflation. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, says a market fully expecting the Fed to follow through on its pledge would be down at least 20% this year. After Friday's fall of 2.5% in the S&P 500, the index is off 14% in 2022. At the same time, traders on Friday shifted bets toward a half-point hike in September and away from a third consecutive three-quarter-point increase.</p><p>Aside from having to fight markets that have been fighting the Fed -- with summer stock market rallies helping to ease the very financial conditions the central bank is trying to tighten -- Powell has two particular forces working against him.</p><p>First, there is the job market.</p><p>In a report this past week, Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina highlighted growing concerns over labor-force growth. He says that many positive postcrisis labor-force participation trends have sputtered and, in some cases, reversed. Prime-age participation has stalled at a level about 600,000 workers short of the pre-Covid tally. And the number of Americans not in the labor force who don't want a job rose to 19.9 million from 19.5 million over June and July; that's above the pre-Covid trend of about 19.1 million. In addition, the improvement in the labor-force participation rate among lower-skilled workers recently rolled over, Oubina observes.</p><p>Long Covid, or lingering negative effects of the virus, might explain some of the labor-supply problem. Oubina notes that the number of people out of the labor force because of disability is about one million above pre-Covid levels. A new report by Katie Bach at the Brookings Institution finds that around 16 million working-age Americans now have long Covid. Of those, Bach says, two million to four million are out of work, due to the condition. If the labor market is a main transmission mechanism of Fed policy, an acutely short labor supply complicates the picture and may mean labor demand must cool more than appreciated to take pressure off wages and prices.</p><p>The second force working against the Fed is fiscal policy.</p><p>President Joe Biden's student-debt forgiveness plan has ignited an economic debate, alongside a political one. Analysts at the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model say the plan will cost roughly $500 billion over a 10-year budget window. Relative to current law, (assuming that the interest moratorium that has been extended until the end of the year does end), the program will add about 0.2 to 0.3 of a percentage point to inflation, says Jason Furman, economics professor at Harvard University and head of former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.</p><p>Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, says the debt-forgiveness policy will, by design, result in millions of households having more discretionary income. "That is a boost to demand and thus pushes in the direction of rising prices," she says, adding that this will drive up the cost of higher education and loans going forward. She notes that Biden's announcement mentioned that the immediate forgiveness will be paired with more generous forgiveness terms on future loans, which "essentially subsidizes the very sector whose ballooning pricing got so many people into this predicament." And it means that even more people will take out loans in the future, she says, further pushing up the costs of higher education.</p><p>In normal times, Furman's estimate wouldn't seem very significant and Kearney's points would be cause for longer-term concern, but not necessarily for losing sleep. Given how high inflation is now, however, it's a step in the wrong direction that undermines the central bank's efforts to cool demand and cure inflation.</p><p>The Fed does have something working in its favor, and it is the data. The latest indications of cooling prices came Friday, when the personal consumption expenditure index declined from its level a month earlier, slipping to a 6.3% year-over-year pace from 6.8% in June. The core versions, which back out food and energy and represent the Fed's favorite inflation measures, also moved in the right direction. From a year earlier, the core PCE fell to 4.6% from 4.8%, still well above the 2% target, but not nearly as elevated as the consumer price index. Separately on Friday, the University of Michigan revised its latest gauges of inflation expectations slightly lower, to 4.8% for the next year and 2.9% over the next five to 10 years. Powell says that the recent inflation cool-down is welcome, but not enough.</p><p>At this point, the forces working against the Fed outweigh those moving in the right direction. They are all the more reasons to believe Powell when he says that failing to fix inflation isn't an option, and they are reasons to believe policy might be even more painful than it would otherwise have to be.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2262838921","content_text":"When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., he didn't say anything exactly new. But in reinforcing his commitment to restoring price stability, the chairman sounded more resolute than he had in other recent public appearances. \"Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct,\" he said, opening a speech that would last only minutes, mostly stick to the importance of the inflation fight, and highlight how his job is only getting harder.\"Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone,\" Powell said, noting that higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor markets are the \"unfortunate costs of reducing inflation\" and will \"bring some pain to households and businesses.\"Strategists agreed that Powell was forceful. In weighing the two legs of the dual mandate -- inflation and economic growth -- the Fed will decidedly come down in favor of reducing inflation, says Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth. \"Powell can't come right out and say that the Fed is fine walking us right into recession in order to crush inflation, but that is what this messaging unequivocally implies.\"Yet Powell is only starting to convince markets that he will do whatever it takes to beat inflation. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, says a market fully expecting the Fed to follow through on its pledge would be down at least 20% this year. After Friday's fall of 2.5% in the S&P 500, the index is off 14% in 2022. At the same time, traders on Friday shifted bets toward a half-point hike in September and away from a third consecutive three-quarter-point increase.Aside from having to fight markets that have been fighting the Fed -- with summer stock market rallies helping to ease the very financial conditions the central bank is trying to tighten -- Powell has two particular forces working against him.First, there is the job market.In a report this past week, Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina highlighted growing concerns over labor-force growth. He says that many positive postcrisis labor-force participation trends have sputtered and, in some cases, reversed. Prime-age participation has stalled at a level about 600,000 workers short of the pre-Covid tally. And the number of Americans not in the labor force who don't want a job rose to 19.9 million from 19.5 million over June and July; that's above the pre-Covid trend of about 19.1 million. In addition, the improvement in the labor-force participation rate among lower-skilled workers recently rolled over, Oubina observes.Long Covid, or lingering negative effects of the virus, might explain some of the labor-supply problem. Oubina notes that the number of people out of the labor force because of disability is about one million above pre-Covid levels. A new report by Katie Bach at the Brookings Institution finds that around 16 million working-age Americans now have long Covid. Of those, Bach says, two million to four million are out of work, due to the condition. If the labor market is a main transmission mechanism of Fed policy, an acutely short labor supply complicates the picture and may mean labor demand must cool more than appreciated to take pressure off wages and prices.The second force working against the Fed is fiscal policy.President Joe Biden's student-debt forgiveness plan has ignited an economic debate, alongside a political one. Analysts at the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model say the plan will cost roughly $500 billion over a 10-year budget window. Relative to current law, (assuming that the interest moratorium that has been extended until the end of the year does end), the program will add about 0.2 to 0.3 of a percentage point to inflation, says Jason Furman, economics professor at Harvard University and head of former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, says the debt-forgiveness policy will, by design, result in millions of households having more discretionary income. \"That is a boost to demand and thus pushes in the direction of rising prices,\" she says, adding that this will drive up the cost of higher education and loans going forward. She notes that Biden's announcement mentioned that the immediate forgiveness will be paired with more generous forgiveness terms on future loans, which \"essentially subsidizes the very sector whose ballooning pricing got so many people into this predicament.\" And it means that even more people will take out loans in the future, she says, further pushing up the costs of higher education.In normal times, Furman's estimate wouldn't seem very significant and Kearney's points would be cause for longer-term concern, but not necessarily for losing sleep. Given how high inflation is now, however, it's a step in the wrong direction that undermines the central bank's efforts to cool demand and cure inflation.The Fed does have something working in its favor, and it is the data. The latest indications of cooling prices came Friday, when the personal consumption expenditure index declined from its level a month earlier, slipping to a 6.3% year-over-year pace from 6.8% in June. The core versions, which back out food and energy and represent the Fed's favorite inflation measures, also moved in the right direction. From a year earlier, the core PCE fell to 4.6% from 4.8%, still well above the 2% target, but not nearly as elevated as the consumer price index. Separately on Friday, the University of Michigan revised its latest gauges of inflation expectations slightly lower, to 4.8% for the next year and 2.9% over the next five to 10 years. Powell says that the recent inflation cool-down is welcome, but not enough.At this point, the forces working against the Fed outweigh those moving in the right direction. They are all the more reasons to believe Powell when he says that failing to fix inflation isn't an option, and they are reasons to believe policy might be even more painful than it would otherwise have to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994133833,"gmtCreate":1661572084024,"gmtModify":1676536544747,"author":{"id":"3585694968236372","authorId":"3585694968236372","name":"Phoenix5104","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a316ae2880cadff61373ca7d5cf06a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585694968236372","idStr":"3585694968236372"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994133833","repostId":"2262838921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2262838921","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1661566425,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2262838921?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-27 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2262838921","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in J","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., he didn't say anything exactly new. But in reinforcing his commitment to restoring price stability, the chairman sounded more resolute than he had in other recent public appearances. "Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct," he said, opening a speech that would last only minutes, mostly stick to the importance of the inflation fight, and highlight how his job is only getting harder.</p><p>"Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone," Powell said, noting that higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor markets are the "unfortunate costs of reducing inflation" and will "bring some pain to households and businesses."</p><p>Strategists agreed that Powell was forceful. In weighing the two legs of the dual mandate -- inflation and economic growth -- the Fed will decidedly come down in favor of reducing inflation, says Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth. "Powell can't come right out and say that the Fed is fine walking us right into recession in order to crush inflation, but that is what this messaging unequivocally implies."</p><p>Yet Powell is only starting to convince markets that he will do whatever it takes to beat inflation. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, says a market fully expecting the Fed to follow through on its pledge would be down at least 20% this year. After Friday's fall of 2.5% in the S&P 500, the index is off 14% in 2022. At the same time, traders on Friday shifted bets toward a half-point hike in September and away from a third consecutive three-quarter-point increase.</p><p>Aside from having to fight markets that have been fighting the Fed -- with summer stock market rallies helping to ease the very financial conditions the central bank is trying to tighten -- Powell has two particular forces working against him.</p><p>First, there is the job market.</p><p>In a report this past week, Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina highlighted growing concerns over labor-force growth. He says that many positive postcrisis labor-force participation trends have sputtered and, in some cases, reversed. Prime-age participation has stalled at a level about 600,000 workers short of the pre-Covid tally. And the number of Americans not in the labor force who don't want a job rose to 19.9 million from 19.5 million over June and July; that's above the pre-Covid trend of about 19.1 million. In addition, the improvement in the labor-force participation rate among lower-skilled workers recently rolled over, Oubina observes.</p><p>Long Covid, or lingering negative effects of the virus, might explain some of the labor-supply problem. Oubina notes that the number of people out of the labor force because of disability is about one million above pre-Covid levels. A new report by Katie Bach at the Brookings Institution finds that around 16 million working-age Americans now have long Covid. Of those, Bach says, two million to four million are out of work, due to the condition. If the labor market is a main transmission mechanism of Fed policy, an acutely short labor supply complicates the picture and may mean labor demand must cool more than appreciated to take pressure off wages and prices.</p><p>The second force working against the Fed is fiscal policy.</p><p>President Joe Biden's student-debt forgiveness plan has ignited an economic debate, alongside a political one. Analysts at the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model say the plan will cost roughly $500 billion over a 10-year budget window. Relative to current law, (assuming that the interest moratorium that has been extended until the end of the year does end), the program will add about 0.2 to 0.3 of a percentage point to inflation, says Jason Furman, economics professor at Harvard University and head of former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.</p><p>Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, says the debt-forgiveness policy will, by design, result in millions of households having more discretionary income. "That is a boost to demand and thus pushes in the direction of rising prices," she says, adding that this will drive up the cost of higher education and loans going forward. She notes that Biden's announcement mentioned that the immediate forgiveness will be paired with more generous forgiveness terms on future loans, which "essentially subsidizes the very sector whose ballooning pricing got so many people into this predicament." And it means that even more people will take out loans in the future, she says, further pushing up the costs of higher education.</p><p>In normal times, Furman's estimate wouldn't seem very significant and Kearney's points would be cause for longer-term concern, but not necessarily for losing sleep. Given how high inflation is now, however, it's a step in the wrong direction that undermines the central bank's efforts to cool demand and cure inflation.</p><p>The Fed does have something working in its favor, and it is the data. The latest indications of cooling prices came Friday, when the personal consumption expenditure index declined from its level a month earlier, slipping to a 6.3% year-over-year pace from 6.8% in June. The core versions, which back out food and energy and represent the Fed's favorite inflation measures, also moved in the right direction. From a year earlier, the core PCE fell to 4.6% from 4.8%, still well above the 2% target, but not nearly as elevated as the consumer price index. Separately on Friday, the University of Michigan revised its latest gauges of inflation expectations slightly lower, to 4.8% for the next year and 2.9% over the next five to 10 years. Powell says that the recent inflation cool-down is welcome, but not enough.</p><p>At this point, the forces working against the Fed outweigh those moving in the right direction. They are all the more reasons to believe Powell when he says that failing to fix inflation isn't an option, and they are reasons to believe policy might be even more painful than it would otherwise have to be.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell's Policy Point: Inflation Must Be Beat, And It Won't Be Pretty\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-27 10:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., he didn't say anything exactly new. But in reinforcing his commitment to restoring price stability, the chairman sounded more resolute than he had in other recent public appearances. "Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct," he said, opening a speech that would last only minutes, mostly stick to the importance of the inflation fight, and highlight how his job is only getting harder.</p><p>"Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone," Powell said, noting that higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor markets are the "unfortunate costs of reducing inflation" and will "bring some pain to households and businesses."</p><p>Strategists agreed that Powell was forceful. In weighing the two legs of the dual mandate -- inflation and economic growth -- the Fed will decidedly come down in favor of reducing inflation, says Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth. "Powell can't come right out and say that the Fed is fine walking us right into recession in order to crush inflation, but that is what this messaging unequivocally implies."</p><p>Yet Powell is only starting to convince markets that he will do whatever it takes to beat inflation. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, says a market fully expecting the Fed to follow through on its pledge would be down at least 20% this year. After Friday's fall of 2.5% in the S&P 500, the index is off 14% in 2022. At the same time, traders on Friday shifted bets toward a half-point hike in September and away from a third consecutive three-quarter-point increase.</p><p>Aside from having to fight markets that have been fighting the Fed -- with summer stock market rallies helping to ease the very financial conditions the central bank is trying to tighten -- Powell has two particular forces working against him.</p><p>First, there is the job market.</p><p>In a report this past week, Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina highlighted growing concerns over labor-force growth. He says that many positive postcrisis labor-force participation trends have sputtered and, in some cases, reversed. Prime-age participation has stalled at a level about 600,000 workers short of the pre-Covid tally. And the number of Americans not in the labor force who don't want a job rose to 19.9 million from 19.5 million over June and July; that's above the pre-Covid trend of about 19.1 million. In addition, the improvement in the labor-force participation rate among lower-skilled workers recently rolled over, Oubina observes.</p><p>Long Covid, or lingering negative effects of the virus, might explain some of the labor-supply problem. Oubina notes that the number of people out of the labor force because of disability is about one million above pre-Covid levels. A new report by Katie Bach at the Brookings Institution finds that around 16 million working-age Americans now have long Covid. Of those, Bach says, two million to four million are out of work, due to the condition. If the labor market is a main transmission mechanism of Fed policy, an acutely short labor supply complicates the picture and may mean labor demand must cool more than appreciated to take pressure off wages and prices.</p><p>The second force working against the Fed is fiscal policy.</p><p>President Joe Biden's student-debt forgiveness plan has ignited an economic debate, alongside a political one. Analysts at the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model say the plan will cost roughly $500 billion over a 10-year budget window. Relative to current law, (assuming that the interest moratorium that has been extended until the end of the year does end), the program will add about 0.2 to 0.3 of a percentage point to inflation, says Jason Furman, economics professor at Harvard University and head of former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.</p><p>Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, says the debt-forgiveness policy will, by design, result in millions of households having more discretionary income. "That is a boost to demand and thus pushes in the direction of rising prices," she says, adding that this will drive up the cost of higher education and loans going forward. She notes that Biden's announcement mentioned that the immediate forgiveness will be paired with more generous forgiveness terms on future loans, which "essentially subsidizes the very sector whose ballooning pricing got so many people into this predicament." And it means that even more people will take out loans in the future, she says, further pushing up the costs of higher education.</p><p>In normal times, Furman's estimate wouldn't seem very significant and Kearney's points would be cause for longer-term concern, but not necessarily for losing sleep. Given how high inflation is now, however, it's a step in the wrong direction that undermines the central bank's efforts to cool demand and cure inflation.</p><p>The Fed does have something working in its favor, and it is the data. The latest indications of cooling prices came Friday, when the personal consumption expenditure index declined from its level a month earlier, slipping to a 6.3% year-over-year pace from 6.8% in June. The core versions, which back out food and energy and represent the Fed's favorite inflation measures, also moved in the right direction. From a year earlier, the core PCE fell to 4.6% from 4.8%, still well above the 2% target, but not nearly as elevated as the consumer price index. Separately on Friday, the University of Michigan revised its latest gauges of inflation expectations slightly lower, to 4.8% for the next year and 2.9% over the next five to 10 years. Powell says that the recent inflation cool-down is welcome, but not enough.</p><p>At this point, the forces working against the Fed outweigh those moving in the right direction. They are all the more reasons to believe Powell when he says that failing to fix inflation isn't an option, and they are reasons to believe policy might be even more painful than it would otherwise have to be.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2262838921","content_text":"When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., he didn't say anything exactly new. But in reinforcing his commitment to restoring price stability, the chairman sounded more resolute than he had in other recent public appearances. \"Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct,\" he said, opening a speech that would last only minutes, mostly stick to the importance of the inflation fight, and highlight how his job is only getting harder.\"Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone,\" Powell said, noting that higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor markets are the \"unfortunate costs of reducing inflation\" and will \"bring some pain to households and businesses.\"Strategists agreed that Powell was forceful. In weighing the two legs of the dual mandate -- inflation and economic growth -- the Fed will decidedly come down in favor of reducing inflation, says Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth. \"Powell can't come right out and say that the Fed is fine walking us right into recession in order to crush inflation, but that is what this messaging unequivocally implies.\"Yet Powell is only starting to convince markets that he will do whatever it takes to beat inflation. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, says a market fully expecting the Fed to follow through on its pledge would be down at least 20% this year. After Friday's fall of 2.5% in the S&P 500, the index is off 14% in 2022. At the same time, traders on Friday shifted bets toward a half-point hike in September and away from a third consecutive three-quarter-point increase.Aside from having to fight markets that have been fighting the Fed -- with summer stock market rallies helping to ease the very financial conditions the central bank is trying to tighten -- Powell has two particular forces working against him.First, there is the job market.In a report this past week, Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina highlighted growing concerns over labor-force growth. He says that many positive postcrisis labor-force participation trends have sputtered and, in some cases, reversed. Prime-age participation has stalled at a level about 600,000 workers short of the pre-Covid tally. And the number of Americans not in the labor force who don't want a job rose to 19.9 million from 19.5 million over June and July; that's above the pre-Covid trend of about 19.1 million. In addition, the improvement in the labor-force participation rate among lower-skilled workers recently rolled over, Oubina observes.Long Covid, or lingering negative effects of the virus, might explain some of the labor-supply problem. Oubina notes that the number of people out of the labor force because of disability is about one million above pre-Covid levels. A new report by Katie Bach at the Brookings Institution finds that around 16 million working-age Americans now have long Covid. Of those, Bach says, two million to four million are out of work, due to the condition. If the labor market is a main transmission mechanism of Fed policy, an acutely short labor supply complicates the picture and may mean labor demand must cool more than appreciated to take pressure off wages and prices.The second force working against the Fed is fiscal policy.President Joe Biden's student-debt forgiveness plan has ignited an economic debate, alongside a political one. Analysts at the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model say the plan will cost roughly $500 billion over a 10-year budget window. Relative to current law, (assuming that the interest moratorium that has been extended until the end of the year does end), the program will add about 0.2 to 0.3 of a percentage point to inflation, says Jason Furman, economics professor at Harvard University and head of former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, says the debt-forgiveness policy will, by design, result in millions of households having more discretionary income. \"That is a boost to demand and thus pushes in the direction of rising prices,\" she says, adding that this will drive up the cost of higher education and loans going forward. She notes that Biden's announcement mentioned that the immediate forgiveness will be paired with more generous forgiveness terms on future loans, which \"essentially subsidizes the very sector whose ballooning pricing got so many people into this predicament.\" And it means that even more people will take out loans in the future, she says, further pushing up the costs of higher education.In normal times, Furman's estimate wouldn't seem very significant and Kearney's points would be cause for longer-term concern, but not necessarily for losing sleep. Given how high inflation is now, however, it's a step in the wrong direction that undermines the central bank's efforts to cool demand and cure inflation.The Fed does have something working in its favor, and it is the data. The latest indications of cooling prices came Friday, when the personal consumption expenditure index declined from its level a month earlier, slipping to a 6.3% year-over-year pace from 6.8% in June. The core versions, which back out food and energy and represent the Fed's favorite inflation measures, also moved in the right direction. From a year earlier, the core PCE fell to 4.6% from 4.8%, still well above the 2% target, but not nearly as elevated as the consumer price index. Separately on Friday, the University of Michigan revised its latest gauges of inflation expectations slightly lower, to 4.8% for the next year and 2.9% over the next five to 10 years. Powell says that the recent inflation cool-down is welcome, but not enough.At this point, the forces working against the Fed outweigh those moving in the right direction. They are all the more reasons to believe Powell when he says that failing to fix inflation isn't an option, and they are reasons to believe policy might be even more painful than it would otherwise have to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}