Profile - To The Moon

DarrenA

Posts · 10Posts · 10
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- DarrenADarrenA
  ·02-06
  $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ AI the way to go
  259 Comment
  3
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-12-05
  $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
  447 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-11-28
  $Apple(AAPL)$
  539 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-11-18
  $Alphabet(GOOG)$
  338 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-11-13
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
  421 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-11-11
  $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$
  623 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-09-23
  Apple is expensive now
  Apple: A Word Of Caution From Tim Cook And iPhone 14 Pre-Orders
  SummaryA revenue beat from 3Q22 results came from better than expected supply side factors rather th
  Apple: A Word Of Caution From Tim Cook And iPhone 14 Pre-Orders
  542 3
  7
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-08-04
  Thnks
  Protecting Against A September Volatility Spike
  Market volatility has dropped slightly in recent weeks as measured by the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Inde
  Protecting Against A September Volatility Spike
  486 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-07-01
  Agree
  Snowflake Stock: A Cloud Bargain, Even in This Environment
  Story HighlightsSnowflake stock received several upgrades in recent months following a favorable rep
  Snowflake Stock: A Cloud Bargain, Even in This Environment
  609 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- DarrenADarrenA
  ·2022-06-06
  Interesting. Thanks
  Zoom Is Eating Microsoft's Lunch
  Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction In late March 2022, I recommended Zoom (NAS
  Zoom Is Eating Microsoft's Lunch
  522 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3586123561468727","uuid":"3586123561468727","gmtCreate":1623029605669,"gmtModify":1623029605669,"name":"DarrenA","pinyin":"darrena","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":30,"tweetSize":10,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.04.26","exceedPercentage":"60.64%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.03","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":22,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":271081387012344,"gmtCreate":1707219773364,"gmtModify":1707219775989,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> AI the way to go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> AI the way to go","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ AI the way to go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271081387012344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964536096,"gmtCreate":1670174346615,"gmtModify":1676538313984,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964536096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966786941,"gmtCreate":1669646303183,"gmtModify":1676538218036,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966786941","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961031496,"gmtCreate":1668782293215,"gmtModify":1676538113108,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Alphabet(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961031496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969922465,"gmtCreate":1668324536757,"gmtModify":1676538041614,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969922465","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960666381,"gmtCreate":1668143208743,"gmtModify":1676538020006,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960666381","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913344121,"gmtCreate":1663923879863,"gmtModify":1676537364201,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is expensive now","listText":"Apple is expensive now","text":"Apple is expensive now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913344121","repostId":"1143184962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143184962","pubTimestamp":1663946413,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143184962?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: A Word Of Caution From Tim Cook And iPhone 14 Pre-Orders","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143184962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA revenue beat from 3Q22 results came from better than expected supply side factors rather th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>A revenue beat from 3Q22 results came from better than expected supply side factors rather than from the demand side.</li><li>Tim Cook did not see any impact on demand for iPhones so far, although there were pockets of weakness in other parts of the business due to macroeconomic impacts.</li><li>There were incremental improvements made for the iPhone, AirPods and Apple Watch in the September 7 event.</li><li>Early data from pre-orders of the new iPhone 14 shows weakness in some models while the iPhone 14 Pro Max demand was strong.</li><li>My 1 year target price for Apple is $128, implying a 17% downside from current levels.</li></ul><p>Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)has held the status as the most valuable company in the world for some time now and for good reasons. I have written about the positives as well as the negatives for the investment case for and against Apple in my previous article. In this article, I look for early warning signs that demand for Apple products may be less than expected as the global economy starts to weaken.</p><p><b>Investment thesis</b></p><p>While I continue to see Apple as an excellent company with great products and a strong brand with strong competitive moats, I do think that the current price levels are not the right levels for investors to add to Apple. The premium multiple it is commanding today comes with a high level of risk as the market is pricing in mid single digit EPS growth in the next 2 years. With the heightened risk of slowing of the macroeconomic environment and potentially a recession, demand for Apple&#39;s products could start to wane as consumers become more sensitive in their spending.</p><p>As such, I think that the current premium multiple is not warranted given the possibility of further downward revisions to the mid single digit EPS that is priced in today. Even with the competitive moat that Apple has today, with a hefty price tag of 24x 2023 P/E with 6% EPS growth from 2023 to 2024, I think that there could be more downside to come for Apple.</p><p><b>3Q22 revenue beat came from supply side</b></p><p>In the current 3Q22 quarter, the company posted a revenue beat of $2.8 billion. Given that management guided that they expect a supply chain impact of about $4 billion to $8 billion for the current quarter, the approximately $3.5 billion in supply chain impact brought a positive impact of about $2.5 billion to the average of $6 billion supply chain impacts that would be expected for the quarter. As a result, the revenue beat did come from better than expected supply side factors, which is of course, positive news given that supply chain issues have been a major constraint for some of its products.</p><p>That said, I take a more cautious view on the demand side of things for Apple until I start to see demand driving the beat. I would look at the sales of the newest iPhone 14 models to gauge for demand since, as highlighted in my previous article, the iPhone takes up more than50%of Apple&#39;s total revenues.</p><p><b>Weak guidance</b></p><p>Although Apple does not usually give a specific numeric guidance, the fourth quarter guidance was less clear than normally provided. In terms of how the macroeconomic environment and higher inflation is affecting the business, I think that it is encouraging that management cleared the air that for the iPhone in particular, there were no obvious signs that macroeconomic factors were affecting the business.</p><p>However, it is also worth pointing out that CEO Tim Cook did acknowledge pockets of weakness in Wearables and Services as these businesses seem to be experiencing the impacts of weakening macroeconomic environment. Mac and iPad were constrained by supply which were not enough to test the demand. Also, there are headwinds coming from the foreign exchange as there were 300 basis points that had an impact on growth rates in the current quarter coming from these FX headwinds.</p><p>All in all, while there are pockets of weakness, I think that it is not all doom for Apple as consumer demand for the iPhone still looks to be holding up. Should there be any signs of weakness in demand for the iPhone 14, I think that this may spell near-term trouble for the company. However, I think management is currently being cautious about expectations rather than management signaling that consumer demand is waning. Furthermore, I think that the uncertain global environment does make it relatively more difficult for a clearer guidance.</p><p><b>Apple&#39;s 7 Sept event</b></p><p>As usual, Apple&#39;s biggest event of the calendar year was met with much enthusiasm. It was great to see incremental improvements, in my view, for their launches of the new iPhone, Watch and AirPods during the 7 September event.</p><p>Firstly, I would highlight the pricing for all models of its iPhones remain unchanged. In my view, this is necessary given that Apple could see a shift in demand from iPhone Pro to its non-Pro models if there were a price increase. Apple&#39;s iPhone Pro mix was abnormally higher during the pandemic and an increase in prices for the iPhone 14 Pro might have risked a more drastic normalization of the iPhone mix.</p><p>Apple did release other features like the Emergency SOS service that uses satellite connectivity which will be free for 2 years for all the new phones that allow for the service, as well as the Dynamic Island that is meant as a clever use of the cutout in the iPhone Pro model for showing alerts. The iPhone Pro model also has an updated 48MP quad-pixel sensor and up from the previous model&#39;s 12MP. Action mode was also launched for videos to look more smooth in videos with significant motion.</p><p>Targeting the fitness and outdoor enthusiasts that currently use watches from companies like Garmin, Apple launched the Apple Ultra Watch. It is a new premium watch with a 49mm titanium case and the watch has improved multi band GPS and the new L5frequency, with a pricing of $799. Furthermore, the company eliminated the Apple Watch Series 3 while reducing the price of the Apple Watch SE by $30 to $249. This means that the most affordable Apple Watch is now the Apple Watch SE.</p><p>Other upgrades include an upgrade to the AirPods Pro, with a new H2 chip that is said to have better sound quality, almost 2x better noise cancellation as well as a longer battery life of6 hours compared to the 4.5 hours in the previous version. Also, the pricing of the new AirPods Pro remains unchanged at $249.</p><p>All in all, while there were incremental improvements during the event for the new iPhone, Watch and AirPods, I take the view that these will not make meaningful improvements to the company&#39;s business or growth. With the event now behind us, this also leaves one less catalyst for the Apple stock in the near term and since this event does not move the needle much, most of the upside or downside in the near term will still come from the higher or lower demand for Apple&#39;s products in the current uncertain economic environment.</p><p><b>Early signs of demand from iPhone 14 launch</b></p><p>While it may be premature to gauge how the sales of the newest iPhone 14 will be in the next year, the data from the launch can be a good leading indicator of what we can expect moving forward. Furthermore, typically the more loyal Apple fans will be the ones buying the latest model near launch date and may not be a good representation of what the true demand is going forward.</p><p>An analyst from TF Securities has done the good work of analyzing and providing data on the pre-orders of Apple&#39;s newest iPhone 14 models. What he found was that for the top end model, iPhone 14 Pro Max, this surpassed the demand that was seen in the same period last year, for which the analyst rated good. The iPhone 14 Pro saw the same demand as the iPhone 13 Pro one year before and thus, was labeled as neutral. The iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 plus were rated a bad rating.</p><p>I think what this means is that we will see a shift in the mix towards the higher end model and thus a higher average selling price given the strong numbers for the iPhone 14 Pro Max. Furthermore, it does imply that the higher end consumers continue to be willing to spend and that iPhone 14 Pro Max&#39;s features and upgrades are the most attractive relative to the other 3 models.</p><p>The iPhone 14 plus had a weaker demand than that of the iPhone 13 mini launched last year, and the two models of iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 plus made up 45% of total shipments.</p><p>It remains to be seen whether the relatively stronger demand for the iPhone 14 Pro Max will be sustained past the early pre-order phase as we might see demand wane if the less loyal Apple consumers may not have the same enthusiasm for the iPhone 14 Pro Max as those who made the pre-order.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Apple is currently trading at 24x 2023 P/E and 23x 2024 P/E. Embedded in this P/E is the pricing in of 6% growth on average in these 2 years. Even though I acknowledge Apple has one of the best businesses and competitive moats, I think that Apple still looks expensive to me at current levels.</p><p>I think that Apple&#39;s premium multiple makes it difficult for me to justify investment into the company at current levels because of the risks of macro economy weakening going into 2023, bringing downside to the current 6% average growth expected over the next 2 years. Furthermore, paying 24x 2023 P/E for 6% growth rate does not make sense to me as I see better opportunities out there.</p><p>I apply a 20x P/E multiple to my 2023F EPS estimate of $6.40. As such, my 1 year target price for Apple is $128, implying 17% downside from current levels. While I have not priced in a recession scenario in my EPS estimates for 2023F, I think that my estimates are relatively de-risked from that of Wall Street and my lower P/E multiple takes into account the higher risk we are seeing today with regard to the weakening macro situation.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>Macroeconomic environment</p><p>While it can be argued that Apple has the most loyal fans, the uncertainty around the global macroeconomic environment now means that there are heightened risks that demand could fade if the economy makes a turn for the worse. I think that the main risk for Apple right now both for the upside and the downside is how demand plays out in the near-term. If demand holds up better than expected, we could see further upside in the stock price. However, if the recession scenario does occur and demand falls, there could be substantial downside to come.</p><p>Market share loss in high end smartphone markets</p><p>While Apple has one of the best competitive moats in the world, sometimes, the bigger they come, the harder they may fall. As such, I think it is crucial Apple maintains this competitive advantage. If Apple is unable to maintain its competitive advantage as an ecosystem leader, other high end smartphone players may take up market share and this will negatively affect share price.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Although Apple&#39;s strong platform creates optionality longer term we see this as offset by a premium multiple and both macro and normalization risks to numbers heading into 2023. We believe there are better options for investors wishing to weather deteriorating macro elsewhere in our coverage.</p><p>I prefer to be on the sidelines with Apple at the current levels, and maintain my neutral rating. There are warning signs for the business appearing as Tim Cook has mentioned some pockets of weakness in the business in the 2Q22 call, supply side factors driving the revenue beat in 2Q22, and iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 plus models not being well received in the pre-order stage. That said, I continue to like Apple as a business for the long-term with a great management running the show with best-in-class products and strong brand reputation. The premium valuation is not justified with the heightened risks that we are seeing going into 2023 with risks of weakening of consumer sentiment and potentially a recession. As such, I think that market has not yet priced in these risks for Apple. My 1 year target price for Apple is $128, implying 17% downside from current levels.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: A Word Of Caution From Tim Cook And iPhone 14 Pre-Orders</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: A Word Of Caution From Tim Cook And iPhone 14 Pre-Orders\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-23 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542569-apple-a-word-of-caution-from-tim-cook-and-iphone-14-pre-orders?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A7><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA revenue beat from 3Q22 results came from better than expected supply side factors rather than from the demand side.Tim Cook did not see any impact on demand for iPhones so far, although there...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542569-apple-a-word-of-caution-from-tim-cook-and-iphone-14-pre-orders?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A7\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542569-apple-a-word-of-caution-from-tim-cook-and-iphone-14-pre-orders?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143184962","content_text":"SummaryA revenue beat from 3Q22 results came from better than expected supply side factors rather than from the demand side.Tim Cook did not see any impact on demand for iPhones so far, although there were pockets of weakness in other parts of the business due to macroeconomic impacts.There were incremental improvements made for the iPhone, AirPods and Apple Watch in the September 7 event.Early data from pre-orders of the new iPhone 14 shows weakness in some models while the iPhone 14 Pro Max demand was strong.My 1 year target price for Apple is $128, implying a 17% downside from current levels.Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)has held the status as the most valuable company in the world for some time now and for good reasons. I have written about the positives as well as the negatives for the investment case for and against Apple in my previous article. In this article, I look for early warning signs that demand for Apple products may be less than expected as the global economy starts to weaken.Investment thesisWhile I continue to see Apple as an excellent company with great products and a strong brand with strong competitive moats, I do think that the current price levels are not the right levels for investors to add to Apple. The premium multiple it is commanding today comes with a high level of risk as the market is pricing in mid single digit EPS growth in the next 2 years. With the heightened risk of slowing of the macroeconomic environment and potentially a recession, demand for Apple's products could start to wane as consumers become more sensitive in their spending.As such, I think that the current premium multiple is not warranted given the possibility of further downward revisions to the mid single digit EPS that is priced in today. Even with the competitive moat that Apple has today, with a hefty price tag of 24x 2023 P/E with 6% EPS growth from 2023 to 2024, I think that there could be more downside to come for Apple.3Q22 revenue beat came from supply sideIn the current 3Q22 quarter, the company posted a revenue beat of $2.8 billion. Given that management guided that they expect a supply chain impact of about $4 billion to $8 billion for the current quarter, the approximately $3.5 billion in supply chain impact brought a positive impact of about $2.5 billion to the average of $6 billion supply chain impacts that would be expected for the quarter. As a result, the revenue beat did come from better than expected supply side factors, which is of course, positive news given that supply chain issues have been a major constraint for some of its products.That said, I take a more cautious view on the demand side of things for Apple until I start to see demand driving the beat. I would look at the sales of the newest iPhone 14 models to gauge for demand since, as highlighted in my previous article, the iPhone takes up more than50%of Apple's total revenues.Weak guidanceAlthough Apple does not usually give a specific numeric guidance, the fourth quarter guidance was less clear than normally provided. In terms of how the macroeconomic environment and higher inflation is affecting the business, I think that it is encouraging that management cleared the air that for the iPhone in particular, there were no obvious signs that macroeconomic factors were affecting the business.However, it is also worth pointing out that CEO Tim Cook did acknowledge pockets of weakness in Wearables and Services as these businesses seem to be experiencing the impacts of weakening macroeconomic environment. Mac and iPad were constrained by supply which were not enough to test the demand. Also, there are headwinds coming from the foreign exchange as there were 300 basis points that had an impact on growth rates in the current quarter coming from these FX headwinds.All in all, while there are pockets of weakness, I think that it is not all doom for Apple as consumer demand for the iPhone still looks to be holding up. Should there be any signs of weakness in demand for the iPhone 14, I think that this may spell near-term trouble for the company. However, I think management is currently being cautious about expectations rather than management signaling that consumer demand is waning. Furthermore, I think that the uncertain global environment does make it relatively more difficult for a clearer guidance.Apple's 7 Sept eventAs usual, Apple's biggest event of the calendar year was met with much enthusiasm. It was great to see incremental improvements, in my view, for their launches of the new iPhone, Watch and AirPods during the 7 September event.Firstly, I would highlight the pricing for all models of its iPhones remain unchanged. In my view, this is necessary given that Apple could see a shift in demand from iPhone Pro to its non-Pro models if there were a price increase. Apple's iPhone Pro mix was abnormally higher during the pandemic and an increase in prices for the iPhone 14 Pro might have risked a more drastic normalization of the iPhone mix.Apple did release other features like the Emergency SOS service that uses satellite connectivity which will be free for 2 years for all the new phones that allow for the service, as well as the Dynamic Island that is meant as a clever use of the cutout in the iPhone Pro model for showing alerts. The iPhone Pro model also has an updated 48MP quad-pixel sensor and up from the previous model's 12MP. Action mode was also launched for videos to look more smooth in videos with significant motion.Targeting the fitness and outdoor enthusiasts that currently use watches from companies like Garmin, Apple launched the Apple Ultra Watch. It is a new premium watch with a 49mm titanium case and the watch has improved multi band GPS and the new L5frequency, with a pricing of $799. Furthermore, the company eliminated the Apple Watch Series 3 while reducing the price of the Apple Watch SE by $30 to $249. This means that the most affordable Apple Watch is now the Apple Watch SE.Other upgrades include an upgrade to the AirPods Pro, with a new H2 chip that is said to have better sound quality, almost 2x better noise cancellation as well as a longer battery life of6 hours compared to the 4.5 hours in the previous version. Also, the pricing of the new AirPods Pro remains unchanged at $249.All in all, while there were incremental improvements during the event for the new iPhone, Watch and AirPods, I take the view that these will not make meaningful improvements to the company's business or growth. With the event now behind us, this also leaves one less catalyst for the Apple stock in the near term and since this event does not move the needle much, most of the upside or downside in the near term will still come from the higher or lower demand for Apple's products in the current uncertain economic environment.Early signs of demand from iPhone 14 launchWhile it may be premature to gauge how the sales of the newest iPhone 14 will be in the next year, the data from the launch can be a good leading indicator of what we can expect moving forward. Furthermore, typically the more loyal Apple fans will be the ones buying the latest model near launch date and may not be a good representation of what the true demand is going forward.An analyst from TF Securities has done the good work of analyzing and providing data on the pre-orders of Apple's newest iPhone 14 models. What he found was that for the top end model, iPhone 14 Pro Max, this surpassed the demand that was seen in the same period last year, for which the analyst rated good. The iPhone 14 Pro saw the same demand as the iPhone 13 Pro one year before and thus, was labeled as neutral. The iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 plus were rated a bad rating.I think what this means is that we will see a shift in the mix towards the higher end model and thus a higher average selling price given the strong numbers for the iPhone 14 Pro Max. Furthermore, it does imply that the higher end consumers continue to be willing to spend and that iPhone 14 Pro Max's features and upgrades are the most attractive relative to the other 3 models.The iPhone 14 plus had a weaker demand than that of the iPhone 13 mini launched last year, and the two models of iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 plus made up 45% of total shipments.It remains to be seen whether the relatively stronger demand for the iPhone 14 Pro Max will be sustained past the early pre-order phase as we might see demand wane if the less loyal Apple consumers may not have the same enthusiasm for the iPhone 14 Pro Max as those who made the pre-order.ValuationApple is currently trading at 24x 2023 P/E and 23x 2024 P/E. Embedded in this P/E is the pricing in of 6% growth on average in these 2 years. Even though I acknowledge Apple has one of the best businesses and competitive moats, I think that Apple still looks expensive to me at current levels.I think that Apple's premium multiple makes it difficult for me to justify investment into the company at current levels because of the risks of macro economy weakening going into 2023, bringing downside to the current 6% average growth expected over the next 2 years. Furthermore, paying 24x 2023 P/E for 6% growth rate does not make sense to me as I see better opportunities out there.I apply a 20x P/E multiple to my 2023F EPS estimate of $6.40. As such, my 1 year target price for Apple is $128, implying 17% downside from current levels. While I have not priced in a recession scenario in my EPS estimates for 2023F, I think that my estimates are relatively de-risked from that of Wall Street and my lower P/E multiple takes into account the higher risk we are seeing today with regard to the weakening macro situation.RisksMacroeconomic environmentWhile it can be argued that Apple has the most loyal fans, the uncertainty around the global macroeconomic environment now means that there are heightened risks that demand could fade if the economy makes a turn for the worse. I think that the main risk for Apple right now both for the upside and the downside is how demand plays out in the near-term. If demand holds up better than expected, we could see further upside in the stock price. However, if the recession scenario does occur and demand falls, there could be substantial downside to come.Market share loss in high end smartphone marketsWhile Apple has one of the best competitive moats in the world, sometimes, the bigger they come, the harder they may fall. As such, I think it is crucial Apple maintains this competitive advantage. If Apple is unable to maintain its competitive advantage as an ecosystem leader, other high end smartphone players may take up market share and this will negatively affect share price.ConclusionAlthough Apple's strong platform creates optionality longer term we see this as offset by a premium multiple and both macro and normalization risks to numbers heading into 2023. We believe there are better options for investors wishing to weather deteriorating macro elsewhere in our coverage.I prefer to be on the sidelines with Apple at the current levels, and maintain my neutral rating. There are warning signs for the business appearing as Tim Cook has mentioned some pockets of weakness in the business in the 2Q22 call, supply side factors driving the revenue beat in 2Q22, and iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 plus models not being well received in the pre-order stage. That said, I continue to like Apple as a business for the long-term with a great management running the show with best-in-class products and strong brand reputation. The premium valuation is not justified with the heightened risks that we are seeing going into 2023 with risks of weakening of consumer sentiment and potentially a recession. As such, I think that market has not yet priced in these risks for Apple. My 1 year target price for Apple is $128, implying 17% downside from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906239457,"gmtCreate":1659554853982,"gmtModify":1705981466740,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thnks","listText":"Thnks","text":"Thnks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906239457","repostId":"1115365849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115365849","pubTimestamp":1659528265,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115365849?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-03 20:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Protecting Against A September Volatility Spike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115365849","media":"Barchart","summary":"Market volatility has dropped slightly in recent weeks as measured by the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Inde","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Market volatility has dropped slightly in recent weeks as measured by the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index. VIX is a real-time index that represents the market expectation for near-term volatility in the S&amp;P500 index.</p><p>Investors and traders have long used VIX as a measure of the level of risk, fear or stress in the market.</p><p>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">iPath S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN </a> is a volatility exchange traded note (ETF) and behaves differently to a regular ETF. VXX typically sees large price increase when the S&amp;P500 tanks. However, most of the time it slowly but surely drops in price. Take a look at a long-term chart and you’ll see what I mean.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a898da51c0e93038159089f99cb1e36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As traders, we can also use VXX options to place trades that benefit from either rising or falling volatility.</p><h3>Buying VXX Call Options To Protect Against A Volatility Spike</h3><p>Some traders will buy VXX call options as a method of protecting against rising volatility. Let’s look at a couple of different examples.</p><p>A long call option trade gives the buyer of the option the right to purchase a certain stock at a certain price (strike price) up until a certain date (expiration date).</p><p>Suppose an investor is worried about a market drop and associated volatility spike between now and mid-September.</p><p>The investor could purchase a VXX September 16 call option with a strike price of 23. This call option contract was trading around $1.09 meaning the investor would need to pay $109 to purchase the call option.</p><p>The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid, which in this case is $109. The maximum loss would occur if VXX closes below 23 on September 16. The breakeven price is 24.30 which is calculated by taking the strike price and adding the premium paid.</p><p>The maximum potential gain is unlimited.</p><p>Savvy traders can further reduce the risk by selling an out-of-the-money call, turning the trade into a bull call spread.</p><p>For example, selling the September 16, 26 call would reduce the trade cost by around $80 but would also limit the upside above 26.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Using VXX options can be simple and cheap way to buy some protection against a sharp selloff in stocks between now and September. The trade can be placed relatively cheaply at $130 for the long call or just $50 for the bull call spread.</p><p>While it is important to keep in mind that it may take a fairly large volatility spike to see VXX jump above 23, for a low cost, this particular option trade could help you sleep easier at night.</p><p>VXX and VXX options behave differently to regular ETF’s and options, so it is vital that any trader using this product fully understands the risks involved. As always, do your own research and due diligence before risking any of your hard-earned capital.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Protecting Against A September Volatility Spike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProtecting Against A September Volatility Spike\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-03 20:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barchart.com/story/news/9433525/protecting-against-a-september-volatility-spike><strong>Barchart</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Market volatility has dropped slightly in recent weeks as measured by the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index. VIX is a real-time index that represents the market expectation for near-term volatility in the S...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/9433525/protecting-against-a-september-volatility-spike\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN"},"source_url":"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/9433525/protecting-against-a-september-volatility-spike","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115365849","content_text":"Market volatility has dropped slightly in recent weeks as measured by the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index. VIX is a real-time index that represents the market expectation for near-term volatility in the S&P500 index.Investors and traders have long used VIX as a measure of the level of risk, fear or stress in the market.The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN  is a volatility exchange traded note (ETF) and behaves differently to a regular ETF. VXX typically sees large price increase when the S&P500 tanks. However, most of the time it slowly but surely drops in price. Take a look at a long-term chart and you’ll see what I mean.As traders, we can also use VXX options to place trades that benefit from either rising or falling volatility.Buying VXX Call Options To Protect Against A Volatility SpikeSome traders will buy VXX call options as a method of protecting against rising volatility. Let’s look at a couple of different examples.A long call option trade gives the buyer of the option the right to purchase a certain stock at a certain price (strike price) up until a certain date (expiration date).Suppose an investor is worried about a market drop and associated volatility spike between now and mid-September.The investor could purchase a VXX September 16 call option with a strike price of 23. This call option contract was trading around $1.09 meaning the investor would need to pay $109 to purchase the call option.The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid, which in this case is $109. The maximum loss would occur if VXX closes below 23 on September 16. The breakeven price is 24.30 which is calculated by taking the strike price and adding the premium paid.The maximum potential gain is unlimited.Savvy traders can further reduce the risk by selling an out-of-the-money call, turning the trade into a bull call spread.For example, selling the September 16, 26 call would reduce the trade cost by around $80 but would also limit the upside above 26.ConclusionUsing VXX options can be simple and cheap way to buy some protection against a sharp selloff in stocks between now and September. The trade can be placed relatively cheaply at $130 for the long call or just $50 for the bull call spread.While it is important to keep in mind that it may take a fairly large volatility spike to see VXX jump above 23, for a low cost, this particular option trade could help you sleep easier at night.VXX and VXX options behave differently to regular ETF’s and options, so it is vital that any trader using this product fully understands the risks involved. As always, do your own research and due diligence before risking any of your hard-earned capital.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045685243,"gmtCreate":1656607133882,"gmtModify":1676535862317,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045685243","repostId":"1181589178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181589178","pubTimestamp":1656559062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181589178?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snowflake Stock: A Cloud Bargain, Even in This Environment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181589178","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsSnowflake stock received several upgrades in recent months following a favorable rep","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsSnowflake stock received several upgrades in recent months following a favorable report gauging IT spending. As Snowflake continues to introduce new innovations while pushing further ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/snowflake-stock-a-cloud-bargain-even-in-this-environment/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake Stock: A Cloud Bargain, Even in This Environment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake Stock: A Cloud Bargain, Even in This Environment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-30 11:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/snowflake-stock-a-cloud-bargain-even-in-this-environment/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsSnowflake stock received several upgrades in recent months following a favorable report gauging IT spending. As Snowflake continues to introduce new innovations while pushing further ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/snowflake-stock-a-cloud-bargain-even-in-this-environment/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/snowflake-stock-a-cloud-bargain-even-in-this-environment/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181589178","content_text":"Story HighlightsSnowflake stock received several upgrades in recent months following a favorable report gauging IT spending. As Snowflake continues to introduce new innovations while pushing further into profitability, the stock may be quicker to form a bottom than other fallen tech stars.Shares of data-warehousing company Snowflake (SNOW) have been crushed by the broader market sell-off. Shares lost around 72% of their value from peak to trough, briefly falling below the IPO price of $120 per share. Undoubtedly, the window to buy Snowflake stock below IPO levels came and went very quickly. Even if the broader market has yet to bottom out, I think the value proposition in Snowflake is hard to pass up at this juncture.Snowflake may be a high-multiple growth stock, but unlike many of its more speculative peers, it has a path towards greater cash flow and margins. Further, its growth profile seems to be underestimated in a market that no longer cares as much for sales growth.Though a coming recession could slow sales growth (it’s likely to look way worse, given Snowflake’s usage-based revenue recognition model), the long-term growth trajectory still seems as strong as ever. In short, Snowflake is still a hyper-growth company. It’s merely moving through a more challenging environment. As it does, the company will take steps to add even more innovations while improving its profitability prospects.On TipRanks, SNOW scores a 6 out of 10 on the Smart Score spectrum. This indicates a potential for the stock to perform in-line with the broader market.Snowflake: Sales and Margin Growth Together?Usually, when you have hyper-growth, you can’t have substantial margin expansion and robust cash flows. That’s what makes Snowflake such an exciting company. It can grow at a staggering rate while maintaining profitability. Though profitability prospects could take a few steps back over the near term, I find it encouraging that the firm can grow without having to reinvest too much capital in its business.Still, Snowflake will continue to invest where it makes sense. Whether through industry-specific services to entice more usage or going on the hunt for acquisition opportunities after the recent tech carnage, Snowflake still has its foot on the pedal.Despite the recent Snowflake avalanche, Wall Street analysts remain incredibly bullish. The stock received a few upgrades over the past few months, and it’s not a mystery why.JP Morgan’s annual chief information officer survey revealed that Snowflake was rated number one in installed-based spending intentions, beating out many enterprise behemoths.Though price targets have decreased considerably in recent months, I remain bullish on Snowflake.Snowflake Customers Love the Platform, and They Could Up Their UsageThe Snowflake platform allows corporations to unlock the full power of their data. Indeed, data is the new commodity, and Snowflake has the tools to help firms refine such data into something more useful.Given that the platform creates so much value for users, it will be difficult for firms to cut Snowflake usage spending, even as the lights go out on the broader economy.While IT spending could prove more resilient, Snowflake’s usage-based model is likely to introduce even more noise in coming quarters. And given how jittery investors have been of late, such noise is likely to be mistaken for something more ominous.Looking ahead, CEO Frank Slootman looks to have lowered the bar amid macro uncertainties. Though Snowflake’s “noisy” revenue model warrants caution when it comes to forward-looking guidance, I think the potential to overshoot such a low bar is high.Many firms are just beginning to harness the power of the Snowflake platform. The more firms use the platform, the more they’ll discover the value in increasing their usage. Though it could take years, Snowflake’s usage-based model could pay off in time once data-heavy firms start ramping up their usage.Wall Street’s TakeAccording to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, SNOW stock comes in as a Strong Buy. Out of 28 analyst ratings, there are 23 Buy recommendations, four Hold recommendations, and one Sell recommendation.The average Snowflake price target is $196.58, implying an upside of 36.74%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $120 per share to a high of $295 per share.The Bottom Line on Snowflake StockSnowflake is a unique company with a very economical business model that can allow growth and margin expansion. Of all the stocks that have shed more than 70% of their value, Snowflake, I believe, is likeliest to see its highs again in this decade.Even if a recession happens over the next year, Slootman and company continue to move forward with cutting-edge innovations.Undoubtedly, it’s hard for investors, analysts, and even prospective users to understand the full extent of the intricate Snowflake platform. As the company shines a light on industry-specific applications, many firms will grow increasingly curious about what they’re missing out on. And it’s this curiosity that could help Snowflake capture its massive total addressable market, even if IT spending takes a hit come the next recession.CIOs love the Snowflake platform, and they’re likely to push companies to spend more on usage as the digital transformation continues.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053692307,"gmtCreate":1654525449609,"gmtModify":1676535462557,"author":{"id":"3586123561468727","authorId":"3586123561468727","name":"DarrenA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586123561468727","authorIdStr":"3586123561468727"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting. Thanks","listText":"Interesting. Thanks","text":"Interesting. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053692307","repostId":"2241056447","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2241056447","pubTimestamp":1654525800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2241056447?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-06 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zoom Is Eating Microsoft's Lunch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2241056447","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction In late March 2022, I recommended Zoom (NAS","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1025px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1312118897/image_1312118897.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>In late March 2022, I recommended <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> (<span>NASDAQ:ZM</span>) as a \"Strong Buy\" citing the disconnect between its business fundamentals and valuation. Since then, Zoom's stock has lost another 7% (despite being up +22% post Q1 FY-2023 earnings release on<span> 23rd May 2022). In my view, this growing disconnect between price and intrinsic value is an incredible buying opportunity, and Zoom's latest quarterly result was another conviction booster for me. My detailed investment thesis and Q4 FY-2022 earnings analysis are linked below:</span></p> <ul> <li> Zoom Is A New Weekly Top Idea [original investment thesis]</li> <li> Inverse Bubbles Part-1: Zoom [Q4 FY-2022 earnings review]</li> </ul> <h2>Zoom: Q1 FY-2023 Earnings Review</h2> <p>In Q1, Zoom's revenues came in at $1.074B (up 12% y/y), beating consensus analyst expectations of ~$1.07B by a razor-thin margin. While the future of work is likely to be hybrid, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors combined with weakness in Zoom's online (SMB-heavy) segment are driving continued slow down at Zoom.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-165429525965404.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>During the quarter, Zoom Phone surpassed the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">3M</a> seat milestone, and Eric Yuan (Zoom's CEO) also announced some early wins in the contact center. Zoom's ever-expanding UCaaS platform and new business workflows are attracting greater spending from new and existing customers.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/4/51572009-16543202763136127.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In my view, Zoom's enterprise revenue growth of 31% y/y serves as evidence that the company's sales and marketing investments are paying off handsomely. While Zoom's NDER (among enterprise customers) declined from 130% in Q4 to 123% in Q1, customer retention rates remain healthy and showcase the substantial value offered by Zoom's best-of-breed unified communications platform.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-1654295369443552.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><span>The central bear thesis for Zoom is competition from deep-pocketed tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT) [Teams], <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a> (CRM) [Slack], and Alphabet (GOOG) [Google Meet]. In Dec-2021, Microsoft announced the general availability of Teams Essentials (as a standalone offering) with pricing set at $4 per month per user, which is ~1/4th of Zoom's pricing. Clearly, Microsoft is gunning for market share among small-medium-sized businesses (encroaching Zoom's territory). </span></p> <p><span>As a result of increased competition and macroeconomic headwinds in EMEA, Zoom's online (SMB-heavy) segment is facing heightened volatility and flattening growth. Many critics argue that Microsoft will eat Zoom's market share; however, Q1 results prove that Zoom is able to hold its revenues (among SMBs) despite a lopsided price war and simultaneously expand among enterprise customers (Microsoft's territory). <em>I understand that this is a bold claim (since we do not have exact numbers on Teams), but I sincerely believe that Zoom is eating Microsoft's lunch (enterprise software market) and will continue to do so in the future.</em> This is precisely why I am bullish on Zoom amidst all the noise around competition.</span></p> <p>In his unique way, Eric outlined Zoom's competitive advantage during the earnings call while replying to Ittai Kidron (Oppenheimer analyst) -</p> <blockquote><p>Let's say you target some other cloud-based service providers. You talk to their customers and talk with our customers. And as you know, we make a customer happy.</p></blockquote> <p>When I heard this statement from Eric, I couldn't stop smiling for minutes, and at that moment I realized that the customer-centricity of its UCaaS platform is enabling Zoom (a relative minnow) to outcompete mega-cap tech companies like Microsoft and Google. And that's the bull case in a nutshell.</p> <p>Geographically, Zoom is showing healthy growth in the Americas (~15%) and Asia Pacific (~20%) but struggling in the EMEA region (mostly due to the war in eastern Europe and consequent forex changes).</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-16542954722886765.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The slowdown in revenue growth at Zoom is being partially offset by rising gross margins. According to the management, deployment of private cloud servers and optimized use of public clouds are driving this margin expansion. We know that Zoom is already a free cash flow machine (~$2B annualized FCF); and while 2021 was a year of consolidation for Zoom (after explosive growth in 2020), revenue growth is likely to re-accelerate in the second half of this year as new products and services gain traction.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-1654295518918223.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Even in the post-pandemic world, Zoom's business is showing strong renewals from customers, as indicated by the 44% y/y growth in Remaining Performance Obligations from $2.07B to $2.99B. Additionally, Zoom's customers are opting for longer-duration contracts, which is a sign of confidence in Zoom's offerings and hybrid work environments.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-16542955651994774.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>As a direct consequence of higher margins, strong renewals, and longer duration contracts, Zoom's operating cash flows and adj. free cash flows came in at record highs of $526M (49% of total revenues) and $501M (46.5% of total revenues). While Q1 (typically) tends to be the strongest quarter for Zoom in terms of cash flow generation (due to the nature of its billing cycles), I expect Zoom to achieve $1.8-2B in free cash flow over the coming twelve months. Even with a buyback program of $1B, Zoom's humongous cash balance (of $5.7B) will continue to grow over coming quarters (unless Zoom's management adopts a more aggressive M&amp;A policy).</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-16542956011303685.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>For Q2 2022, Zoom's management guided for $1.11-1.12B in revenue, with a non-GAAP operating income of $360-365M. While Zoom's buyback program is not going to make a big impact on the share count in 2022 due to additional share-based compensation expenses, I can see Zoom buying back ~$15-20B (roughly 25%) of its outstanding shares over the next decade. Even if Zoom fails to grow beyond this point, Zoom's management could easily deliver robust shareholder returns from this point via capital return programs (and this is possible due to terminal valuation multiples bestowed upon Zoom by the market right now).</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-16542956748539963.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Despite a temporary slowdown, Zoom has a lot of headroom for future growth, with a rapidly-expanding TAM of $84B+. With a revenue re-acceleration penned in for the second half of this year, I think this weakness in Zoom's stock is a great buying opportunity. Let us now determine Zoom's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.</p> <h2>Zoom's Fair Value And Expected Returns</h2> <p>Zoom's enterprise wins make me confident about the future; however, the weakness (flattening growth) in the online segment [due to multiple reasons including a return to the office, business disruptions due to macroeconomic factors, and increasing competitive pressures] could lead to near-term revenue volatility. As a result, I am cutting my revenue forecast and future growth rates to be ultra-conservative with our projections. To be sure, Zoom may grow much faster via acquisitions, and this market environment could create lucrative M&amp;A opportunities for a well-capitalized business like Zoom.</p> <p><em><strong>Assumptions:</strong></em></p> <span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>Forward 12-month expected revenue [A]</p></td> <td><p>$4.9 billion</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p></td> <td><p>35%</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p></td> <td><p>~310 million</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p></td> <td><p>$5.53</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p></td> <td><p>15%</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Terminal growth rate</p></td> <td><p>3%</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Years of elevated growth</p></td> <td><p>10</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Total years to stimulate</p></td> <td><p>100</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p></td> <td><p>9.8%</p></td> </tr> </table></span> <p><em><strong>Results:</strong></em></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-16542760852423925.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/3/51572009-16542761137612736.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>At $32.5B in market capitalization (~16-17x P/FCF), Zoom is trading at multiples typically ascribed to companies that have reached terminal growth rates (which is not the reality). In my view, Zoom's growth story has many more chapters to follow as the video communications giant expands to adjacent markets. Even if you choose to take a very conservative stance on Zoom's future, as I did in today's valuation exercise, Zoom is a fantastic buy at current levels.</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> I rate Zoom a strong buy at $110.</p> <p>Thanks for reading. Please feel free to share any thoughts, questions, and/or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom Is Eating Microsoft's Lunch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom Is Eating Microsoft's Lunch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-06 22:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516506-zoom-is-eating-microsofts-lunch><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction In late March 2022, I recommended Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) as a \"Strong Buy\" citing the disconnect between its business fundamentals and valuation. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516506-zoom-is-eating-microsofts-lunch\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MSFT":"微软","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","ZM":"Zoom","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4576":"AR","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4516506-zoom-is-eating-microsofts-lunch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2241056447","content_text":"Morsa Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction In late March 2022, I recommended Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) as a \"Strong Buy\" citing the disconnect between its business fundamentals and valuation. Since then, Zoom's stock has lost another 7% (despite being up +22% post Q1 FY-2023 earnings release on 23rd May 2022). In my view, this growing disconnect between price and intrinsic value is an incredible buying opportunity, and Zoom's latest quarterly result was another conviction booster for me. My detailed investment thesis and Q4 FY-2022 earnings analysis are linked below:   Zoom Is A New Weekly Top Idea [original investment thesis]  Inverse Bubbles Part-1: Zoom [Q4 FY-2022 earnings review]  Zoom: Q1 FY-2023 Earnings Review In Q1, Zoom's revenues came in at $1.074B (up 12% y/y), beating consensus analyst expectations of ~$1.07B by a razor-thin margin. While the future of work is likely to be hybrid, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors combined with weakness in Zoom's online (SMB-heavy) segment are driving continued slow down at Zoom. Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation During the quarter, Zoom Phone surpassed the 3M seat milestone, and Eric Yuan (Zoom's CEO) also announced some early wins in the contact center. Zoom's ever-expanding UCaaS platform and new business workflows are attracting greater spending from new and existing customers. Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation In my view, Zoom's enterprise revenue growth of 31% y/y serves as evidence that the company's sales and marketing investments are paying off handsomely. While Zoom's NDER (among enterprise customers) declined from 130% in Q4 to 123% in Q1, customer retention rates remain healthy and showcase the substantial value offered by Zoom's best-of-breed unified communications platform. Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation The central bear thesis for Zoom is competition from deep-pocketed tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT) [Teams], Salesforce (CRM) [Slack], and Alphabet (GOOG) [Google Meet]. In Dec-2021, Microsoft announced the general availability of Teams Essentials (as a standalone offering) with pricing set at $4 per month per user, which is ~1/4th of Zoom's pricing. Clearly, Microsoft is gunning for market share among small-medium-sized businesses (encroaching Zoom's territory).  As a result of increased competition and macroeconomic headwinds in EMEA, Zoom's online (SMB-heavy) segment is facing heightened volatility and flattening growth. Many critics argue that Microsoft will eat Zoom's market share; however, Q1 results prove that Zoom is able to hold its revenues (among SMBs) despite a lopsided price war and simultaneously expand among enterprise customers (Microsoft's territory). I understand that this is a bold claim (since we do not have exact numbers on Teams), but I sincerely believe that Zoom is eating Microsoft's lunch (enterprise software market) and will continue to do so in the future. This is precisely why I am bullish on Zoom amidst all the noise around competition. In his unique way, Eric outlined Zoom's competitive advantage during the earnings call while replying to Ittai Kidron (Oppenheimer analyst) - Let's say you target some other cloud-based service providers. You talk to their customers and talk with our customers. And as you know, we make a customer happy. When I heard this statement from Eric, I couldn't stop smiling for minutes, and at that moment I realized that the customer-centricity of its UCaaS platform is enabling Zoom (a relative minnow) to outcompete mega-cap tech companies like Microsoft and Google. And that's the bull case in a nutshell. Geographically, Zoom is showing healthy growth in the Americas (~15%) and Asia Pacific (~20%) but struggling in the EMEA region (mostly due to the war in eastern Europe and consequent forex changes). Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation The slowdown in revenue growth at Zoom is being partially offset by rising gross margins. According to the management, deployment of private cloud servers and optimized use of public clouds are driving this margin expansion. We know that Zoom is already a free cash flow machine (~$2B annualized FCF); and while 2021 was a year of consolidation for Zoom (after explosive growth in 2020), revenue growth is likely to re-accelerate in the second half of this year as new products and services gain traction. Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation Even in the post-pandemic world, Zoom's business is showing strong renewals from customers, as indicated by the 44% y/y growth in Remaining Performance Obligations from $2.07B to $2.99B. Additionally, Zoom's customers are opting for longer-duration contracts, which is a sign of confidence in Zoom's offerings and hybrid work environments. Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation As a direct consequence of higher margins, strong renewals, and longer duration contracts, Zoom's operating cash flows and adj. free cash flows came in at record highs of $526M (49% of total revenues) and $501M (46.5% of total revenues). While Q1 (typically) tends to be the strongest quarter for Zoom in terms of cash flow generation (due to the nature of its billing cycles), I expect Zoom to achieve $1.8-2B in free cash flow over the coming twelve months. Even with a buyback program of $1B, Zoom's humongous cash balance (of $5.7B) will continue to grow over coming quarters (unless Zoom's management adopts a more aggressive M&A policy). Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation For Q2 2022, Zoom's management guided for $1.11-1.12B in revenue, with a non-GAAP operating income of $360-365M. While Zoom's buyback program is not going to make a big impact on the share count in 2022 due to additional share-based compensation expenses, I can see Zoom buying back ~$15-20B (roughly 25%) of its outstanding shares over the next decade. Even if Zoom fails to grow beyond this point, Zoom's management could easily deliver robust shareholder returns from this point via capital return programs (and this is possible due to terminal valuation multiples bestowed upon Zoom by the market right now). Zoom Q1 FY-2023 Investor Presentation Despite a temporary slowdown, Zoom has a lot of headroom for future growth, with a rapidly-expanding TAM of $84B+. With a revenue re-acceleration penned in for the second half of this year, I think this weakness in Zoom's stock is a great buying opportunity. Let us now determine Zoom's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision. Zoom's Fair Value And Expected Returns Zoom's enterprise wins make me confident about the future; however, the weakness (flattening growth) in the online segment [due to multiple reasons including a return to the office, business disruptions due to macroeconomic factors, and increasing competitive pressures] could lead to near-term revenue volatility. As a result, I am cutting my revenue forecast and future growth rates to be ultra-conservative with our projections. To be sure, Zoom may grow much faster via acquisitions, and this market environment could create lucrative M&A opportunities for a well-capitalized business like Zoom. Assumptions:       Forward 12-month expected revenue [A] $4.9 billion   Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B] 35%   Average diluted shares outstanding [C] ~310 million   Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ] $5.53   Free cash flow per share growth rate 15%   Terminal growth rate 3%   Years of elevated growth 10   Total years to stimulate 100   Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\") 9.8%   Results:   L.A. Stevens Valuation Model  L.A. Stevens Valuation Model At $32.5B in market capitalization (~16-17x P/FCF), Zoom is trading at multiples typically ascribed to companies that have reached terminal growth rates (which is not the reality). In my view, Zoom's growth story has many more chapters to follow as the video communications giant expands to adjacent markets. Even if you choose to take a very conservative stance on Zoom's future, as I did in today's valuation exercise, Zoom is a fantastic buy at current levels. Key Takeaway: I rate Zoom a strong buy at $110. Thanks for reading. Please feel free to share any thoughts, questions, and/or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}