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StLiaS

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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2023-01-03
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-12-23
  k//@JeJu: Ok
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-12-10
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-11-08
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-09-29
  ok
  US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher as Treasury Yields Dip
  Apple drops on concerns about iPhone demandTreasury prices rebound after BoE decisionS&P 500 records largest one-day gain since Aug. 10Indexes: Dow +1.88%, S&P 500 +1.97%, Nasdaq +2.05%Sept 28 (Reuter
  US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher as Treasury Yields Dip
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-09-28
  like pls
  Apple Ditches iPhone Production Increase After Demand Falters
  Company had hoped to see new devices trigger sales spurtiPhone 14 Pro models selling better than ent
  Apple Ditches iPhone Production Increase After Demand Falters
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-09-26
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  If Not The Bottom, Then What?
  SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the
  If Not The Bottom, Then What?
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-09-25
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  If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”
  Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock
  If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-09-24
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  Why I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market
  A lot of scary words have been floating around with "recession" and "inflation" at the top of the li
  Why I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market
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- StLiaSStLiaS
  ·2022-09-23
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  The Case For The S&P 500 Dropping To 2,200
  SummaryThe S&P 500 is at risk of heading much lower than many think.This is not hyperbole; it is bas
  The Case For The S&P 500 Dropping To 2,200
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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1664406595,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2271737074?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-29 07:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher as Treasury Yields Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2271737074","media":"Reuters","summary":"Apple drops on concerns about iPhone demandTreasury prices rebound after BoE decisionS&P 500 records largest one-day gain since Aug. 10Indexes: Dow +1.88%, S&P 500 +1.97%, Nasdaq +2.05%Sept 28 (Reuter","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Apple drops on concerns about iPhone demand</li><li>Treasury prices rebound after BoE decision</li><li>S&amp;P 500 records largest one-day gain since Aug. 10</li><li>Indexes: Dow +1.88%, S&amp;P 500 +1.97%, Nasdaq +2.05%</li></ul><p>Sept 28 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Wednesday following its recent sell-off, helped by falling Treasury yields, while Apple dropped on concerns about demand for iPhones.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 recorded its first gain in seven sessions after closing on Tuesday at its lowest since late 2020.</p><p>Interest rate-sensitive megacaps Microsoft, Amazon and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> rallied as the yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell over 0.26 percentage point in its biggest one-day drop since 2009.</p><p>Pushing yields lower on Treasuries with maturities six months and longer, the Bank of England said it would buy long-dated British bonds in a move aimed at restoring financial stability in markets rocked globally by the fiscal policy of the new government in London.</p><p>&#34;The yield on the two-year Treasury has gone up persistently over the course of the last several weeks, and for the first time we&#39;ve seen it go down for two days in a row, and that has given equities a breather,&#34; said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth.</p><p>Investors have been keenly listening to comments from Federal Reserve officials about the path of monetary policy, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Wednesday backing another 75-basis-point interest rate hike in November. The Fed will likely get borrowing costs to where they need to be by early next year, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said.</p><p>U.S. stocks have been battered in 2022 by worries that an aggressive push by the Fed to raise borrowing costs could throw the economy into a downturn.</p><p>Apple Inc dropped 1.3% after Bloomberg reported the company is dropping plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialize.</p><p>Apple has been a relative outperformer in 2022&#39;s stock market sell-off, down about 15% in the year to date, versus the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 22% loss.</p><p>All of the 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes rose, led by a 4.4% jump in energy and a 3.2% leap in communication services .</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.88% to end at 29,683.74 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.97% to 3,719.04. It was the S&amp;P 500&#39;s largest one-day gain since Aug. 10.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.05% to 11,051.64.</p><p>Biogen Inc surged 40% after saying its experimental Alzheimer&#39;s drug, developed with Japanese partner Eisai Co Ltd , succeeded in slowing cognitive decline.</p><p>Eli Lilly &amp; Co, which is also developing an Alzheimer&#39;s drug, jumped 7.5%, and it was among the biggest boosts to the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 5.82-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 30 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 26 new highs and 224 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.7 billion shares, compared with an 11.4 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8e9a6ce881361e45c74a1b02609eaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher as Treasury Yields Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-29 07:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Apple drops on concerns about iPhone demand</li><li>Treasury prices rebound after BoE decision</li><li>S&amp;P 500 records largest one-day gain since Aug. 10</li><li>Indexes: Dow +1.88%, S&amp;P 500 +1.97%, Nasdaq +2.05%</li></ul><p>Sept 28 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Wednesday following its recent sell-off, helped by falling Treasury yields, while Apple dropped on concerns about demand for iPhones.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 recorded its first gain in seven sessions after closing on Tuesday at its lowest since late 2020.</p><p>Interest rate-sensitive megacaps Microsoft, Amazon and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> rallied as the yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell over 0.26 percentage point in its biggest one-day drop since 2009.</p><p>Pushing yields lower on Treasuries with maturities six months and longer, the Bank of England said it would buy long-dated British bonds in a move aimed at restoring financial stability in markets rocked globally by the fiscal policy of the new government in London.</p><p>&#34;The yield on the two-year Treasury has gone up persistently over the course of the last several weeks, and for the first time we&#39;ve seen it go down for two days in a row, and that has given equities a breather,&#34; said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth.</p><p>Investors have been keenly listening to comments from Federal Reserve officials about the path of monetary policy, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Wednesday backing another 75-basis-point interest rate hike in November. The Fed will likely get borrowing costs to where they need to be by early next year, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said.</p><p>U.S. stocks have been battered in 2022 by worries that an aggressive push by the Fed to raise borrowing costs could throw the economy into a downturn.</p><p>Apple Inc dropped 1.3% after Bloomberg reported the company is dropping plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialize.</p><p>Apple has been a relative outperformer in 2022&#39;s stock market sell-off, down about 15% in the year to date, versus the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 22% loss.</p><p>All of the 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes rose, led by a 4.4% jump in energy and a 3.2% leap in communication services .</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.88% to end at 29,683.74 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.97% to 3,719.04. It was the S&amp;P 500&#39;s largest one-day gain since Aug. 10.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.05% to 11,051.64.</p><p>Biogen Inc surged 40% after saying its experimental Alzheimer&#39;s drug, developed with Japanese partner Eisai Co Ltd , succeeded in slowing cognitive decline.</p><p>Eli Lilly &amp; Co, which is also developing an Alzheimer&#39;s drug, jumped 7.5%, and it was among the biggest boosts to the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 5.82-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 30 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 26 new highs and 224 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.7 billion shares, compared with an 11.4 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8e9a6ce881361e45c74a1b02609eaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2271737074","content_text":"Apple drops on concerns about iPhone demandTreasury prices rebound after BoE decisionS&P 500 records largest one-day gain since Aug. 10Indexes: Dow +1.88%, S&P 500 +1.97%, Nasdaq +2.05%Sept 28 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Wednesday following its recent sell-off, helped by falling Treasury yields, while Apple dropped on concerns about demand for iPhones.The S&P 500 recorded its first gain in seven sessions after closing on Tuesday at its lowest since late 2020.Interest rate-sensitive megacaps Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms rallied as the yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell over 0.26 percentage point in its biggest one-day drop since 2009.Pushing yields lower on Treasuries with maturities six months and longer, the Bank of England said it would buy long-dated British bonds in a move aimed at restoring financial stability in markets rocked globally by the fiscal policy of the new government in London.\"The yield on the two-year Treasury has gone up persistently over the course of the last several weeks, and for the first time we've seen it go down for two days in a row, and that has given equities a breather,\" said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth.Investors have been keenly listening to comments from Federal Reserve officials about the path of monetary policy, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Wednesday backing another 75-basis-point interest rate hike in November. The Fed will likely get borrowing costs to where they need to be by early next year, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said.U.S. stocks have been battered in 2022 by worries that an aggressive push by the Fed to raise borrowing costs could throw the economy into a downturn.Apple Inc dropped 1.3% after Bloomberg reported the company is dropping plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialize.Apple has been a relative outperformer in 2022's stock market sell-off, down about 15% in the year to date, versus the S&P 500's 22% loss.All of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by a 4.4% jump in energy and a 3.2% leap in communication services .The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.88% to end at 29,683.74 points, while the S&P 500 gained 1.97% to 3,719.04. It was the S&P 500's largest one-day gain since Aug. 10.The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.05% to 11,051.64.Biogen Inc surged 40% after saying its experimental Alzheimer's drug, developed with Japanese partner Eisai Co Ltd , succeeded in slowing cognitive decline.Eli Lilly & Co, which is also developing an Alzheimer's drug, jumped 7.5%, and it was among the biggest boosts to the S&P 500 index.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 5.82-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 30 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 26 new highs and 224 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.7 billion shares, compared with an 11.4 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918188547,"gmtCreate":1664334038189,"gmtModify":1676537435652,"author":{"id":"3587035779894315","authorId":"3587035779894315","name":"StLiaS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d128f37c753a5fb3a7b118c38d312807","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587035779894315","idStr":"3587035779894315"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918188547","repostId":"1104082912","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104082912","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664328672,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104082912?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-28 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Ditches iPhone Production Increase After Demand Falters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104082912","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Company had hoped to see new devices trigger sales spurtiPhone 14 Pro models selling better than ent","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Company had hoped to see new devices trigger sales spurt</li><li>iPhone 14 Pro models selling better than entry-level handsets</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92cd88c528e1e8ec959f79f2e5c6010a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Apple Inc.is backing off plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialize, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The Cupertino, California-based electronics maker has told suppliers to pull back from efforts to increase assembly of the iPhone 14 product family by as many as 6 million units in the second half of this year, said the people, asking not to be named as the plans are not public. Instead, the company will aim to produce 90 million handsets for the period, roughly the same level as the prior year andin linewith Apple’s original forecast this summer, the people said.</p><p>Demand for higher-priced iPhone 14 Pro models is stronger than for the entry-level versions, according to some of the people. In at least one case, an Apple supplier is shifting production capacity from lower-priced iPhones to premium models, they added.</p><p>US stock-index futures turned lower after the news, with contracts on the Nasdaq 100 falling as much as 1.3%. Key chipmakerTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.fell as much as 1.8%, Apple’s biggest iPhone assemblerHon Hai Precision Industry Co.was down as much as 2.4% and specialized producersLargan Precision Co.andLG Innotek Co.both slumped by more than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4b4b91f3af24fba5d3e016bef84b402\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Apple iPhone 14 and 14 Pro phones at an Apple store in Sydney, earlier in September.Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg</p><p>Apple had upgraded its sales projections in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 14 release and some of its suppliers had started making preparations for a 7% boost in orders.</p><p>An Apple spokesperson declined to comment.</p><p>China, the world’s biggest smartphone market, is in an economic slump that’s hit its domestic mobile device makers and also affected the iPhone’s sales. Purchases of the iPhone 14 series over its first three days of availability in China were11% downon its predecessor the previous year, according to a Jefferies note on Monday.</p><p>Global demand for personal electronics has also been suppressed by surging inflation, recession fears and disruption from the war in Ukraine. The smartphone market is expected to shrink by 6.5% this year to 1.27 billion units, according todatafrom market tracker IDC.</p><p>“The supply constraints pulling down on the market since last year have eased and the industry has shifted to a demand-constrained market,” said Nabila Popal, research director at IDC. “High inventory in channels and low demand with no signs of immediate recovery has OEMs panicking and cutting their orders drastically for 2022.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Ditches iPhone Production Increase After Demand Falters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Ditches iPhone Production Increase After Demand Falters\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-28 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/apple-ditches-iphone-production-increase-after-demand-falters><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Company had hoped to see new devices trigger sales spurtiPhone 14 Pro models selling better than entry-level handsetsApple Inc.is backing off plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/apple-ditches-iphone-production-increase-after-demand-falters\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/apple-ditches-iphone-production-increase-after-demand-falters","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104082912","content_text":"Company had hoped to see new devices trigger sales spurtiPhone 14 Pro models selling better than entry-level handsetsApple Inc.is backing off plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialize, according to people familiar with the matter.The Cupertino, California-based electronics maker has told suppliers to pull back from efforts to increase assembly of the iPhone 14 product family by as many as 6 million units in the second half of this year, said the people, asking not to be named as the plans are not public. Instead, the company will aim to produce 90 million handsets for the period, roughly the same level as the prior year andin linewith Apple’s original forecast this summer, the people said.Demand for higher-priced iPhone 14 Pro models is stronger than for the entry-level versions, according to some of the people. In at least one case, an Apple supplier is shifting production capacity from lower-priced iPhones to premium models, they added.US stock-index futures turned lower after the news, with contracts on the Nasdaq 100 falling as much as 1.3%. Key chipmakerTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.fell as much as 1.8%, Apple’s biggest iPhone assemblerHon Hai Precision Industry Co.was down as much as 2.4% and specialized producersLargan Precision Co.andLG Innotek Co.both slumped by more than 7%.Apple iPhone 14 and 14 Pro phones at an Apple store in Sydney, earlier in September.Photographer: Brent Lewin/BloombergApple had upgraded its sales projections in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 14 release and some of its suppliers had started making preparations for a 7% boost in orders.An Apple spokesperson declined to comment.China, the world’s biggest smartphone market, is in an economic slump that’s hit its domestic mobile device makers and also affected the iPhone’s sales. Purchases of the iPhone 14 series over its first three days of availability in China were11% downon its predecessor the previous year, according to a Jefferies note on Monday.Global demand for personal electronics has also been suppressed by surging inflation, recession fears and disruption from the war in Ukraine. The smartphone market is expected to shrink by 6.5% this year to 1.27 billion units, according todatafrom market tracker IDC.“The supply constraints pulling down on the market since last year have eased and the industry has shifted to a demand-constrained market,” said Nabila Popal, research director at IDC. “High inventory in channels and low demand with no signs of immediate recovery has OEMs panicking and cutting their orders drastically for 2022.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911680947,"gmtCreate":1664194062889,"gmtModify":1676537407071,"author":{"id":"3587035779894315","authorId":"3587035779894315","name":"StLiaS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d128f37c753a5fb3a7b118c38d312807","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587035779894315","idStr":"3587035779894315"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911680947","repostId":"1154262778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154262778","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664205477,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154262778?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-26 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Not The Bottom, Then What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154262778","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Leading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.</li><li>With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.</li><li>Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns.</li></ul><h3>Caveat</h3><p>We admit we don’t know what the future holds for us. I am falling back on my instinct to view things as bets with their own uncertain odds.</p><h3>Investment Markets Decline on September 23rd</h3><p>Leading central bank interest rates, sertt by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. (My guess is that they won’t be successful at current levels until they switch from attempting to reduce demand to increasing supply, which is more difficult.) With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.</p><p>The battle against industrial goods inflation may be close to won, with the year-over-year change in the JOC-ECRI industrial price at -9.69%, gasoline demand down almost -8%, and distillates down about -16%. (I think it is going to be more difficult to address inflation in services, which is mostly comprised of wages for talented people.) Furthermore, food prices are much more dependent on the global decline in land use and availability.</p><p>As usual, the high-quality fixed-income markets are more advanced than the equity markets.</p><p>Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average established a new low for the year, the S&amp;P 500 was the third-lowest, and the Nasdaq the fifth-lowest. Considering the latter two indices had greater gains, the fall of the DJIA is less impressive. While there was an increase in transaction volume from a low base, it was not impressive. There are no signs of mass capitulation at public or institutional levels.</p><h3>Outlook</h3><p>There are four possible paths forward. In order of time, magnitude and pain, they are:</p><p>A bear market without a recession has happened a few times and is largely a price correction. We are closing in on that.</p><p>A cyclical recession is usually driven by commodity prices or other supply issues. This is satisfactorily addressed in a few years.</p><p>A structural recession due to systemic imbalances of power and leadership requires major changes, which drastically alter society. Depending on the level of violence, it can take many years.</p><p>Stagflation, where a portion of the society/economy sacrifices involuntarily to the other until there is a counter-revolutionary force. There is usually a period of mismanagement and legal turmoil. We have experienced two periods like this in the past beginning in the 1930s and 1970s.</p><p>Each alternative is possible. Prudent investors should make up their own minds as to what is probable for their beneficiaries and careers. (To be discussed later.)</p><p>Before choosing your expected future, there is a new threat and lesson which surfaced this week.</p><h3>London’s Future Lesson and Threat</h3><p>This week, the brand-new Prime Minister announced a very expensive plan of pump-priming and tax reduction for individuals. The reaction of the London investment market and currency was shock and fear. The former US Secretary of Treasury and former President of Harvard summed up the view of many on both sides of the Atlantic that these were “the worst possible policies”.</p><p>There are two lessons for the US from these policies which march down the same road as the current US administration.</p><p>The lesson for US and other investors is that the value of one’s currency shapes the willingness of foreigners to invest in the currency. The independent Bank of England, their central bank, raised interest rates by 100 basis points earlier in the week before this announcement. On Friday, there was a call for the BOE to immediately raise rates another 100 basis points.</p><p>This controversy is important for the US with its highly rated currency, which somewhat ironically had the second-biggest gain for the week, according to The Wall Street Journal. (The only currency that had a bigger gain was the Russian ruble, +4.54% vs.+2.57%.)</p><p>Investors, traders, and customers look at the currency behind the source of earnings in today’s currency markets. We are all familiar with the “Petrodollar”, which is based on the earnings derived from petroleum production and sale. To some degree, the tag of Petrodollar has also been placed on the currencies of Russia and Canada, among others, in addition to various Middle Eastern countries.</p><p>While it hasn’t been popularly done before, I believe we may now see a financial pound label placed on the British currency. A major part of its earnings come from its transaction markets and multinationals headquartered in the UK with export earnings, as well as contributions from my wife at her favorite shopping location.</p><p>We should watch what happens in the UK as an indication of a possible trend for the US.</p><h3>Investing Equity Reserves</h3><p>Last week’s blog suggested a tactical plan to reinvest reserves coming from equity investments, or from cash flows to be invested in equities.</p><p>Investors will be benefit from dollar-cost averaging, no matter which frequency is used. They will also benefit from the selection of one of the four alternative futures outlined above.</p><p>The most important long-term decision regarding the ultimate value of the account is to not get too comfortable with cash reserves while interest rates earn single-digit returns. This will be costly, as stock markets go up as rates come down, resulting in some principal loss. More important, time not invested in equities at low prices will be lost. For taxable investors, the difference in taxes on interest and gains can be meaningful, particularly in well-constructed estates.</p><p>In making choices where time horizon is appropriate for your investments, I expect the last two scenarios to be the most likely, based on today’s information. For example, Walmart (WMT) is not building inventory and staff for the holiday season. Their shoppers, for the most part, are modest-income, savvy buyers. If Walmart is not expecting a good holiday season for itself, one should question how quickly inflation will drop below 5%.</p><p>Typically, a well-known name disappears from the marketplace due to severe financial trouble. None has so far, but you might see a rescue merger or court action.</p><p>I have no inside information, but I am concerned that reported earnings and, more importantly, values are overstated for the current economy, making market valuations questionable. One such possible company is Credit Suisse (CS). The pundits are quoting it as selling for almost 20% of book value! I am sure this is not a singular situation.</p><p>Please share your views.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Not The Bottom, Then What?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Not The Bottom, Then What?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-26 23:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154262778","content_text":"SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns.CaveatWe admit we don’t know what the future holds for us. I am falling back on my instinct to view things as bets with their own uncertain odds.Investment Markets Decline on September 23rdLeading central bank interest rates, sertt by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. (My guess is that they won’t be successful at current levels until they switch from attempting to reduce demand to increasing supply, which is more difficult.) With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.The battle against industrial goods inflation may be close to won, with the year-over-year change in the JOC-ECRI industrial price at -9.69%, gasoline demand down almost -8%, and distillates down about -16%. (I think it is going to be more difficult to address inflation in services, which is mostly comprised of wages for talented people.) Furthermore, food prices are much more dependent on the global decline in land use and availability.As usual, the high-quality fixed-income markets are more advanced than the equity markets.Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average established a new low for the year, the S&P 500 was the third-lowest, and the Nasdaq the fifth-lowest. Considering the latter two indices had greater gains, the fall of the DJIA is less impressive. While there was an increase in transaction volume from a low base, it was not impressive. There are no signs of mass capitulation at public or institutional levels.OutlookThere are four possible paths forward. In order of time, magnitude and pain, they are:A bear market without a recession has happened a few times and is largely a price correction. We are closing in on that.A cyclical recession is usually driven by commodity prices or other supply issues. This is satisfactorily addressed in a few years.A structural recession due to systemic imbalances of power and leadership requires major changes, which drastically alter society. Depending on the level of violence, it can take many years.Stagflation, where a portion of the society/economy sacrifices involuntarily to the other until there is a counter-revolutionary force. There is usually a period of mismanagement and legal turmoil. We have experienced two periods like this in the past beginning in the 1930s and 1970s.Each alternative is possible. Prudent investors should make up their own minds as to what is probable for their beneficiaries and careers. (To be discussed later.)Before choosing your expected future, there is a new threat and lesson which surfaced this week.London’s Future Lesson and ThreatThis week, the brand-new Prime Minister announced a very expensive plan of pump-priming and tax reduction for individuals. The reaction of the London investment market and currency was shock and fear. The former US Secretary of Treasury and former President of Harvard summed up the view of many on both sides of the Atlantic that these were “the worst possible policies”.There are two lessons for the US from these policies which march down the same road as the current US administration.The lesson for US and other investors is that the value of one’s currency shapes the willingness of foreigners to invest in the currency. The independent Bank of England, their central bank, raised interest rates by 100 basis points earlier in the week before this announcement. On Friday, there was a call for the BOE to immediately raise rates another 100 basis points.This controversy is important for the US with its highly rated currency, which somewhat ironically had the second-biggest gain for the week, according to The Wall Street Journal. (The only currency that had a bigger gain was the Russian ruble, +4.54% vs.+2.57%.)Investors, traders, and customers look at the currency behind the source of earnings in today’s currency markets. We are all familiar with the “Petrodollar”, which is based on the earnings derived from petroleum production and sale. To some degree, the tag of Petrodollar has also been placed on the currencies of Russia and Canada, among others, in addition to various Middle Eastern countries.While it hasn’t been popularly done before, I believe we may now see a financial pound label placed on the British currency. A major part of its earnings come from its transaction markets and multinationals headquartered in the UK with export earnings, as well as contributions from my wife at her favorite shopping location.We should watch what happens in the UK as an indication of a possible trend for the US.Investing Equity ReservesLast week’s blog suggested a tactical plan to reinvest reserves coming from equity investments, or from cash flows to be invested in equities.Investors will be benefit from dollar-cost averaging, no matter which frequency is used. They will also benefit from the selection of one of the four alternative futures outlined above.The most important long-term decision regarding the ultimate value of the account is to not get too comfortable with cash reserves while interest rates earn single-digit returns. This will be costly, as stock markets go up as rates come down, resulting in some principal loss. More important, time not invested in equities at low prices will be lost. For taxable investors, the difference in taxes on interest and gains can be meaningful, particularly in well-constructed estates.In making choices where time horizon is appropriate for your investments, I expect the last two scenarios to be the most likely, based on today’s information. For example, Walmart (WMT) is not building inventory and staff for the holiday season. Their shoppers, for the most part, are modest-income, savvy buyers. If Walmart is not expecting a good holiday season for itself, one should question how quickly inflation will drop below 5%.Typically, a well-known name disappears from the marketplace due to severe financial trouble. None has so far, but you might see a rescue merger or court action.I have no inside information, but I am concerned that reported earnings and, more importantly, values are overstated for the current economy, making market valuations questionable. One such possible company is Credit Suisse (CS). The pundits are quoting it as selling for almost 20% of book value! I am sure this is not a singular situation.Please share your views.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911984739,"gmtCreate":1664116173721,"gmtModify":1676537392465,"author":{"id":"3587035779894315","authorId":"3587035779894315","name":"StLiaS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d128f37c753a5fb3a7b118c38d312807","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587035779894315","idStr":"3587035779894315"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911984739","repostId":"2269490734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269490734","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664066508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269490734?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-25 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269490734","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269490734","content_text":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market's decline this past week following the Federal Reserve's most recent interest-rate hike announcement.To show why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model's track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market's subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University's finance professor Robert Shiller.In other words, the ability to predict the stock market's five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.Money illusionThese results are so surprising that it's important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years' corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it's only half the story.The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as \"inflation illusion\" -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.According to research conducted by Warr, inflation's impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed's latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.None of this means that the bear market shouldn't continue, or that equities aren't overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913257458,"gmtCreate":1663997214474,"gmtModify":1676537377914,"author":{"id":"3587035779894315","authorId":"3587035779894315","name":"StLiaS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d128f37c753a5fb3a7b118c38d312807","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587035779894315","idStr":"3587035779894315"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913257458","repostId":"2269657466","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269657466","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663980236,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269657466?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-24 08:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269657466","media":"TheStreet","summary":"A lot of scary words have been floating around with \"recession\" and \"inflation\" at the top of the li","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A lot of scary words have been floating around with &#34;recession&#34; and &#34;inflation&#34; at the top of the list. People are worried about the economy and the Federal Reserve has not been helping as it steadily raises interest rates. That, in theory, acts as a check on inflation, but mostly makes money more expensive which impacts mortgage rates, credit card interest, and really any money people borrow going forward.</p><p>That has driven the Dow Jones Industrial Average steadily downward. The index fell by nearly 500 points on Sept. 23 sending it to a low for 2022. In a broad sense. it&#39;s not just the Dow as the Nasdaq has steadily fallen as well.</p><p>We all know the story and understand the fears, but market fears about what might happen don&#39;t actually track with what&#39;s actually happening in the U.S. economy.</p><h2>The U.S. Economy Has Been Strong</h2><p>Obviously, inflation has hit many lower-income Americans hard. But the employment market remains strong with the unemployment rate sitting at 3.7%. That&#39;s not quite a historical low, but it&#39;s in that range. In addition, there&#39;s exactly one-half of an available job seeker for every available job opening, That actually is a historical low since the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been tracking that data.</p><p>Job openings, however, don&#39;t always mean good jobs, but wages have also been rising in the service industry and even fast food jobs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YUM\">Yum! Brands</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>, and a number of other retailers have embraced a $15 minimum wage.</p><p>And, while the employment market remains strong, the flip side of that is rising housing costs coupled with higher mortgage rates. That&#39;s not great news for people buying a house (even if history suggests they still should) but it has a flip side. If you own a house, it has become a fast-rising asset that increases your net worth.</p><p>The economy is, of course, personal. If you can&#39;t find a job or afford to live where you want to, that&#39;s very real. Broadly, however, there are a lot of signs that the economy remains strong and that many of the issues we&#39;re having relate to what might be called a pandemic hangover.</p><h2>Market Drops Are the Best Times to Invest</h2><p>Many of my favorite companies have dropped by 30% or more. I don&#39;t stop believing in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a>, or <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>  (just to name a few) because their share prices have fallen. In fact, I look at all three of these companies and how they handled the pandemic and prepared for the future and feel better about them.</p><p>Stock price does not always equate to performance in the short term. Disney, for example, has the best intellectual property (IP) of any entertainment company and has endless pricing power. In fact, if you were offered &#34;every other companies&#39; IP&#34; or Disney&#39;s, you can make  a case to take Disney.</p><p>Costco just delivered one of its highest renewal rates ever (over 92%) and continues to add members, Microsoft has only gotten stronger as it pivots more fully to a software as a service model, yet all three of those companies have seen double digit stock drops this year.</p><p>In a bad market, I cling to the mantra &#34;time in the market beats timing the market.&#34; Now is the time to add to your holdings in really strong companies. Consider that good companies are now on sale, really big sales in some cases, and add strategically to your long-term holdings.</p><p>After you do that, remember that long-term means years. Check in on the companies you own to make sure they have stayed on course, but don&#39;t check your portfolio everyday. A market drop feels bad, but historically, it means nothing. Good companies will recover and investing in them, plus time (maybe a lot of time) is what makes investors rich.</p><p>BY DANIEL KLINE</p></body></html>","source":"thestreet_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-24 08:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/why-im-not-worried-about-the-stock-market><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A lot of scary words have been floating around with \"recession\" and \"inflation\" at the top of the list. People are worried about the economy and the Federal Reserve has not been helping as it steadily...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/why-im-not-worried-about-the-stock-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","COST":"好市多","BK4209":"餐馆","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MSFT":"微软","DIS":"迪士尼","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","SBUX":"星巴克","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4114":"综合货品商店","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","WMT":"沃尔玛","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","TGT":"塔吉特","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","YUM":"百胜餐饮集团","BK4136":"纸材料包装","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/why-im-not-worried-about-the-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269657466","content_text":"A lot of scary words have been floating around with \"recession\" and \"inflation\" at the top of the list. People are worried about the economy and the Federal Reserve has not been helping as it steadily raises interest rates. That, in theory, acts as a check on inflation, but mostly makes money more expensive which impacts mortgage rates, credit card interest, and really any money people borrow going forward.That has driven the Dow Jones Industrial Average steadily downward. The index fell by nearly 500 points on Sept. 23 sending it to a low for 2022. In a broad sense. it's not just the Dow as the Nasdaq has steadily fallen as well.We all know the story and understand the fears, but market fears about what might happen don't actually track with what's actually happening in the U.S. economy.The U.S. Economy Has Been StrongObviously, inflation has hit many lower-income Americans hard. But the employment market remains strong with the unemployment rate sitting at 3.7%. That's not quite a historical low, but it's in that range. In addition, there's exactly one-half of an available job seeker for every available job opening, That actually is a historical low since the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been tracking that data.Job openings, however, don't always mean good jobs, but wages have also been rising in the service industry and even fast food jobs. Walmart, Target, Yum! Brands, Starbucks, and a number of other retailers have embraced a $15 minimum wage.And, while the employment market remains strong, the flip side of that is rising housing costs coupled with higher mortgage rates. That's not great news for people buying a house (even if history suggests they still should) but it has a flip side. If you own a house, it has become a fast-rising asset that increases your net worth.The economy is, of course, personal. If you can't find a job or afford to live where you want to, that's very real. Broadly, however, there are a lot of signs that the economy remains strong and that many of the issues we're having relate to what might be called a pandemic hangover.Market Drops Are the Best Times to InvestMany of my favorite companies have dropped by 30% or more. I don't stop believing in Costco, Walt Disney, or Microsoft  (just to name a few) because their share prices have fallen. In fact, I look at all three of these companies and how they handled the pandemic and prepared for the future and feel better about them.Stock price does not always equate to performance in the short term. Disney, for example, has the best intellectual property (IP) of any entertainment company and has endless pricing power. In fact, if you were offered \"every other companies' IP\" or Disney's, you can make  a case to take Disney.Costco just delivered one of its highest renewal rates ever (over 92%) and continues to add members, Microsoft has only gotten stronger as it pivots more fully to a software as a service model, yet all three of those companies have seen double digit stock drops this year.In a bad market, I cling to the mantra \"time in the market beats timing the market.\" Now is the time to add to your holdings in really strong companies. Consider that good companies are now on sale, really big sales in some cases, and add strategically to your long-term holdings.After you do that, remember that long-term means years. Check in on the companies you own to make sure they have stayed on course, but don't check your portfolio everyday. A market drop feels bad, but historically, it means nothing. Good companies will recover and investing in them, plus time (maybe a lot of time) is what makes investors rich.BY DANIEL KLINE","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913895558,"gmtCreate":1663948780674,"gmtModify":1676537369570,"author":{"id":"3587035779894315","authorId":"3587035779894315","name":"StLiaS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d128f37c753a5fb3a7b118c38d312807","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587035779894315","idStr":"3587035779894315"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913895558","repostId":"1177261377","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177261377","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663946501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177261377?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-23 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Case For The S&P 500 Dropping To 2,200","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177261377","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 is at risk of heading much lower than many think.This is not hyperbole; it is bas","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 is at risk of heading much lower than many think.</li><li>This is not hyperbole; it is based on a combination of historical analysis and the realities of the current market climate.</li><li>While history doesn&#39;t repeat exactly, human nature has a way of making it &#34;rhyme&#34; with the past.</li><li>The technical condition of the broad stock market looks terrible on an intermediate-term basis.</li><li>There&#39;s always a chance for a &#34;save&#34; - e.g., by the Fed - but inflation completely changes the calculus.</li></ul><p>Remember back in late March of 2020? The S&amp;P 500 (SP500) had just lost about one-third of its value in five weeks. It fell from around 3,400 to just under 2,200. Lockdowns, panic, and red ink on stock portfolios were everywhere. Then, likeit was shot out of a cannon, yet another extension of the 11-year bull market that began back in 2009 commenced. But if this &#34;new era&#34; of investing in the stock market plays out the way it appears to be, based on current charts and recent history, that 2,200 level from late March 2020 could be the S&amp;P 500&#39;s ultimate destination before this bear market cycle concludes.</p><p><b>Current Evidence</b></p><p>In this new era of inflation, Fed-obsessed investors, algorithmic trading, and index-driven investment flows, the market is more of a confidence game than I&#39;ve seen in three decades of investing professionally. And that confidence is fading, drop by drop. As a 42-year chartist, my evidence always ultimately boils down to a picture. Here&#39;s one to explain it to you.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea920e21231810c68359aaca3af08d36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What you don&#39;t want to see if you are looking for &#34;the bottom&#34; (TC2000)</p><p>This a technical chart (weekly prices) of the S&amp;P 500 back to late 2019, so you can see how far we&#39;ve come - and, perhaps, where we are going again. Because while any investment or index can rise in price at any time, the intermediate-term risk attached to nearly any market segment, theme, industry, or sector right now is high. Historically high.</p><p>What do I see in this chart? The top section of graph (price pattern) and the price percent oscillator (PPO) momentum indicator in the bottom section of the chart shows at least three important warning signs for those who are counting on a &#34;quick fix&#34; to the current stock market malaise.</p><p><b>That Stubborn Trendline</b></p><p>Since Jan. 4 of this year (the second trading day of 2022), the S&amp;P 500, and most of the global stock market, has been in a clear downward trend. That&#39;s the black line shown toward the top of the chart. Think of this line as marking the rite of passage if a new bull market is going to start anytime soon. The bulls have had three cracks at it - in April, August, and earlier this month. In all three cases, the result was, as we technicians say, &#34;failure.&#34; The S&amp;P 500&#39;s price failed to cross above and stay above that downward trend.</p><p>Frankly, breaking above that downtrend line is a pretty low bar for hopeful bullish stock investors right now. It would take a convincing, sustainable move toward the 4,300 area to negate all of the downward pressure that stocks have experienced this year. And that is still more than 10% from the S&amp;P 500&#39;s all-time high level around 4,800.</p><p><b>Those Darn Red Arrows</b></p><p>A more detailed version of what you just read above is to see how many false rallies we&#39;ve had during this eight-month downtrend for stocks. Every red arrow I drew into the chart marks a moment where bullish investors (and Wall Street firm cheerleaders, who need bull markets to keep their revenues flowing) might have felt that &#34;the bottom was in.&#34;</p><p>Well, there are 12 red arrows on that chart, and one orange arrow at the far right, as the recent market malaise sorts itself out. That&#39;s a lot of failure, and lends strong evidence to my belief that the most likely intermediate direction for the S&amp;P 500 is down - a lot.</p><p><b>Watch Out for the Cross</b></p><p>I&#39;ll spare you a full dissertation on the PPO, except to tell you that in 42 years of charting, I&#39;ve seen and tried a lot of different technical indicators. The PPO is my personal favorite, and the longer the time frame you look (e.g., charts of weekly prices v. daily, hourly, etc.), the more I have come to regard it as a market &#34;truth teller.&#34;</p><p>What the PPO on the S&amp;P 500 tells me now is that we are close to the weekly indicator crossing over to the downside. In English, that means decidedly negative price momentum. So, while shorter-term PPO time frames have already crossed over, this is the one that might just take us from all of those red arrows (rallies that fail) to something more serious, and something more emotional for investors on the way down.</p><p><b>Historical Evidence: The Dot-Com Era</b></p><p>At this point, you might be thinking the same thing many investors tell me when I proclaim that 2,200 could be the ultimate destination for the S&amp;P 500 in this bear cycle: &#34;No way - really?!&#34; Here&#39;s some history to either remind you or inform you of what happens when the stock market goes from an era of excessive speculation to increasing concern, and eventually to emotional chaos.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 lost about half of its value from March 2000 to March 2003. Here&#39;s what that looked like.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dc0e2b19c0fdb9c7a513fddf091eff0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500: Dot-Com Bubble (Ycharts.com)</p><p>However, as with the current market environment in 2022, it was not as simple as a 50% &#34;flash crash.&#34; It was more like the proverbial boiling frog analogy. It took the form of a series of sharp drops and hopeful rallies. However, as has been the case in 2022, the rallies didn&#39;t last - and so I kept having to add more of those red arrows to that first chart.</p><p>Here&#39;s what happened starting 11 months into the dot-com bubble. The S&amp;P 500 had fallen about 20%, then gained back enough to leave it down only 10% from its all-time high. Yes, the same thing happened this year. Coincidence or human nature? It doesn&#39;t really matter. Price rules.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e5b1c78e195588102f84a74a3bee661\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500: Dot-Com Bubble - just when you thought it was over! (Ycharts.com)</p><p>So that initial decline and recovery, which netted the S&amp;P 500 about a 10% loss, was succeeded by a whopping 40%+ decline. The S&amp;P 500&#39;s most recent rally topped out at around 4,300. Take 40% off of that, and you are in the 2,600 area. As history would have it, that was the better of the first two bear markets of this century.</p><p><b>Historical Evidence: Global Financial Crisis</b></p><p>If you are keeping score at home, the dot-com bust meant that index fund investors had to double their money just to earn a zero return since the start of that time frame. And they did exactly that, from 2003 through 2007.</p><p>And then, it happened again. Here&#39;s the S&amp;P 500 from October 2007 through March of 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dbb9483c84007e214ce0d1b40345d24\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500: Global Financial Crisis (Ycharts.com)</p><p>Once again, there was the initial drop, the &#34;it&#39;s only a flesh wound&#34; (with apologies to &#34;Monty Python&#34;) phase, and then this from August 2008 through March 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78eee7337e28dd849990a96ddc9e04a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P 500 GFC - just when you thought it was over! (Ycharts.com)</p><p>The net result, as the previous chart showed, was a 56% drop from the peak. If you had invested in an S&amp;P 500 Index fund on Jan. 4, 2022, and the 2007-09 down move repeated itself, your ultimate destination would be around 2,100. So, a move from S&amp;P 4,800 down to 2,200 in the coming year or two doesn&#39;t seem so unlikely.</p><p><b>Observations and Conclusions</b></p><p>Stock market analysis and evaluation of risk is never an all-or-nothing proposition. Instead, it is about evaluating as many possible scenarios as you can, including some realistic but generally unthinkable ones. After all, any investment can go up at any time. What distinguishes any security and any market climate from any another is the amount of major risk you are taking when you put that capital to work.</p><p>Here in the final third of 2022, and considering potential reward and risk through to 2023, my conclusion is that the level of market risk is currently at a historically high rate.</p><p><b>The Good News for Bulls (for Now)</b></p><p>That doesn&#39;t mean 2,200 is a given. It just means that the odds favor much more downside from here. Whether by way of the Fed&#39;s magic wand or some change of heart by a hoard of investors, the S&amp;P 500 could reverse course, get happy again, and move toward and above that all-time high and above 5,000. It could happen this year or next year. One never knows.</p><p>But if you are &#34;counting&#34; on that based on the fact that we have not had a sustained decline in the S&amp;P 500 in over 13 years, you are investing with rose-colored glasses. Inflation is the new wildcard, and was not an issue during the periods shown above.</p><p>Furthermore, the nature of market participants has changed, with piles of money flooded into index funds, and so much short-term trading by professional and retail investors alike. The odds of something breaking are high. And the S&amp;P 500&#39;s chart is telling us that. We just need to listen.</p><p><b>What to Do if I&#39;m Right</b></p><p>As my team and I will cover extensively and exclusively at Seeking Alpha in the days, weeks, and months ahead, there is a wide variety of investment weapons available to investors today. These allow them to not simply defend bear markets in stocks and bonds, but exploit them for profit. But before any investor can consider that step, they must first acknowledge that at the present time accounting for risk of major loss, so you can prevent it, should be every investor&#39;s top priority.</p><p><b>The Key: Mix Offense and Defense in Portfolios</b></p><p>I truly believe markets are at a critical crossroads. That means the tremendous wealth accumulated over the past decade is at risk, for those who don&#39;t know how to mix defense with their offense. The bottom line is that this autumn, we find ourselves in a market climate that is only rivaled by the last two times investors saw half of the index funds&#39; value disappear. Be careful out there, and learn how to navigate this new and, dare I say, historic climate.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Case For The S&P 500 Dropping To 2,200</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Case For The S&P 500 Dropping To 2,200\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-23 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542347-the-s-and-p-500-set-to-drop><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 is at risk of heading much lower than many think.This is not hyperbole; it is based on a combination of historical analysis and the realities of the current market climate.While ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542347-the-s-and-p-500-set-to-drop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542347-the-s-and-p-500-set-to-drop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177261377","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 is at risk of heading much lower than many think.This is not hyperbole; it is based on a combination of historical analysis and the realities of the current market climate.While history doesn't repeat exactly, human nature has a way of making it \"rhyme\" with the past.The technical condition of the broad stock market looks terrible on an intermediate-term basis.There's always a chance for a \"save\" - e.g., by the Fed - but inflation completely changes the calculus.Remember back in late March of 2020? The S&P 500 (SP500) had just lost about one-third of its value in five weeks. It fell from around 3,400 to just under 2,200. Lockdowns, panic, and red ink on stock portfolios were everywhere. Then, likeit was shot out of a cannon, yet another extension of the 11-year bull market that began back in 2009 commenced. But if this \"new era\" of investing in the stock market plays out the way it appears to be, based on current charts and recent history, that 2,200 level from late March 2020 could be the S&P 500's ultimate destination before this bear market cycle concludes.Current EvidenceIn this new era of inflation, Fed-obsessed investors, algorithmic trading, and index-driven investment flows, the market is more of a confidence game than I've seen in three decades of investing professionally. And that confidence is fading, drop by drop. As a 42-year chartist, my evidence always ultimately boils down to a picture. Here's one to explain it to you.What you don't want to see if you are looking for \"the bottom\" (TC2000)This a technical chart (weekly prices) of the S&P 500 back to late 2019, so you can see how far we've come - and, perhaps, where we are going again. Because while any investment or index can rise in price at any time, the intermediate-term risk attached to nearly any market segment, theme, industry, or sector right now is high. Historically high.What do I see in this chart? The top section of graph (price pattern) and the price percent oscillator (PPO) momentum indicator in the bottom section of the chart shows at least three important warning signs for those who are counting on a \"quick fix\" to the current stock market malaise.That Stubborn TrendlineSince Jan. 4 of this year (the second trading day of 2022), the S&P 500, and most of the global stock market, has been in a clear downward trend. That's the black line shown toward the top of the chart. Think of this line as marking the rite of passage if a new bull market is going to start anytime soon. The bulls have had three cracks at it - in April, August, and earlier this month. In all three cases, the result was, as we technicians say, \"failure.\" The S&P 500's price failed to cross above and stay above that downward trend.Frankly, breaking above that downtrend line is a pretty low bar for hopeful bullish stock investors right now. It would take a convincing, sustainable move toward the 4,300 area to negate all of the downward pressure that stocks have experienced this year. And that is still more than 10% from the S&P 500's all-time high level around 4,800.Those Darn Red ArrowsA more detailed version of what you just read above is to see how many false rallies we've had during this eight-month downtrend for stocks. Every red arrow I drew into the chart marks a moment where bullish investors (and Wall Street firm cheerleaders, who need bull markets to keep their revenues flowing) might have felt that \"the bottom was in.\"Well, there are 12 red arrows on that chart, and one orange arrow at the far right, as the recent market malaise sorts itself out. That's a lot of failure, and lends strong evidence to my belief that the most likely intermediate direction for the S&P 500 is down - a lot.Watch Out for the CrossI'll spare you a full dissertation on the PPO, except to tell you that in 42 years of charting, I've seen and tried a lot of different technical indicators. The PPO is my personal favorite, and the longer the time frame you look (e.g., charts of weekly prices v. daily, hourly, etc.), the more I have come to regard it as a market \"truth teller.\"What the PPO on the S&P 500 tells me now is that we are close to the weekly indicator crossing over to the downside. In English, that means decidedly negative price momentum. So, while shorter-term PPO time frames have already crossed over, this is the one that might just take us from all of those red arrows (rallies that fail) to something more serious, and something more emotional for investors on the way down.Historical Evidence: The Dot-Com EraAt this point, you might be thinking the same thing many investors tell me when I proclaim that 2,200 could be the ultimate destination for the S&P 500 in this bear cycle: \"No way - really?!\" Here's some history to either remind you or inform you of what happens when the stock market goes from an era of excessive speculation to increasing concern, and eventually to emotional chaos.The S&P 500 lost about half of its value from March 2000 to March 2003. Here's what that looked like.S&P 500: Dot-Com Bubble (Ycharts.com)However, as with the current market environment in 2022, it was not as simple as a 50% \"flash crash.\" It was more like the proverbial boiling frog analogy. It took the form of a series of sharp drops and hopeful rallies. However, as has been the case in 2022, the rallies didn't last - and so I kept having to add more of those red arrows to that first chart.Here's what happened starting 11 months into the dot-com bubble. The S&P 500 had fallen about 20%, then gained back enough to leave it down only 10% from its all-time high. Yes, the same thing happened this year. Coincidence or human nature? It doesn't really matter. Price rules.S&P 500: Dot-Com Bubble - just when you thought it was over! (Ycharts.com)So that initial decline and recovery, which netted the S&P 500 about a 10% loss, was succeeded by a whopping 40%+ decline. The S&P 500's most recent rally topped out at around 4,300. Take 40% off of that, and you are in the 2,600 area. As history would have it, that was the better of the first two bear markets of this century.Historical Evidence: Global Financial CrisisIf you are keeping score at home, the dot-com bust meant that index fund investors had to double their money just to earn a zero return since the start of that time frame. And they did exactly that, from 2003 through 2007.And then, it happened again. Here's the S&P 500 from October 2007 through March of 2009.S&P 500: Global Financial Crisis (Ycharts.com)Once again, there was the initial drop, the \"it's only a flesh wound\" (with apologies to \"Monty Python\") phase, and then this from August 2008 through March 2009.S&P 500 GFC - just when you thought it was over! (Ycharts.com)The net result, as the previous chart showed, was a 56% drop from the peak. If you had invested in an S&P 500 Index fund on Jan. 4, 2022, and the 2007-09 down move repeated itself, your ultimate destination would be around 2,100. So, a move from S&P 4,800 down to 2,200 in the coming year or two doesn't seem so unlikely.Observations and ConclusionsStock market analysis and evaluation of risk is never an all-or-nothing proposition. Instead, it is about evaluating as many possible scenarios as you can, including some realistic but generally unthinkable ones. After all, any investment can go up at any time. What distinguishes any security and any market climate from any another is the amount of major risk you are taking when you put that capital to work.Here in the final third of 2022, and considering potential reward and risk through to 2023, my conclusion is that the level of market risk is currently at a historically high rate.The Good News for Bulls (for Now)That doesn't mean 2,200 is a given. It just means that the odds favor much more downside from here. Whether by way of the Fed's magic wand or some change of heart by a hoard of investors, the S&P 500 could reverse course, get happy again, and move toward and above that all-time high and above 5,000. It could happen this year or next year. One never knows.But if you are \"counting\" on that based on the fact that we have not had a sustained decline in the S&P 500 in over 13 years, you are investing with rose-colored glasses. Inflation is the new wildcard, and was not an issue during the periods shown above.Furthermore, the nature of market participants has changed, with piles of money flooded into index funds, and so much short-term trading by professional and retail investors alike. The odds of something breaking are high. And the S&P 500's chart is telling us that. We just need to listen.What to Do if I'm RightAs my team and I will cover extensively and exclusively at Seeking Alpha in the days, weeks, and months ahead, there is a wide variety of investment weapons available to investors today. These allow them to not simply defend bear markets in stocks and bonds, but exploit them for profit. But before any investor can consider that step, they must first acknowledge that at the present time accounting for risk of major loss, so you can prevent it, should be every investor's top priority.The Key: Mix Offense and Defense in PortfoliosI truly believe markets are at a critical crossroads. That means the tremendous wealth accumulated over the past decade is at risk, for those who don't know how to mix defense with their offense. The bottom line is that this autumn, we find ourselves in a market climate that is only rivaled by the last two times investors saw half of the index funds' value disappear. Be careful out there, and learn how to navigate this new and, dare I say, historic climate.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}