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thomaschai
thomaschai
·
2023-04-13
Very good very good
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thomaschai
thomaschai
·
2023-04-13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
hhhhhhhhh
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thomaschai
thomaschai
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2023-04-13
Good good good good
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thomaschai
thomaschai
·
2022-12-22
ZZZ7,/ok,
Is Hong Kong stock OK again? Hengke Index once soared 5%. What is the key to see in the follow-up?
珍惜复苏的窗口期
Is Hong Kong stock OK again? Hengke Index once soared 5%. What is the key to see in the follow-up?
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thomaschai
thomaschai
·
2022-02-23
Ggggg
Haidilao's pre-loss exceeded 3.8 billion yuan last year. Is there a play for this year's comeback?
海底捞将遭遇上市以来首次亏损。2月21日，海底捞发布盈利预警——2021年全年预计亏损38亿元至45亿元。财报显示，2018年至2020年，海底捞的净利润分别为16.46亿元、23.45亿元、3.09
Haidilao's pre-loss exceeded 3.8 billion yuan last year. Is there a play for this year's comeback?
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thomaschai
thomaschai
·
2022-02-23
Gg
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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thomaschai
thomaschai
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2022-02-04
I
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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thomaschai
thomaschai
·
2022-01-24
Hhhhh
The Spring Festival is approaching, holding shares or holding coins
春节又将临近，每逢此时，市场上总是兴起一股关于是持币过年还是持股过年的讨论。为此本文统计回顾了2010年至2021年春节前后A股市场的表现情况，供投资者参考。A股春节效应显著，节前节后市场上涨概率大，
The Spring Festival is approaching, holding shares or holding coins
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thomaschai
thomaschai
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2021-09-14
Hh
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thomaschai
thomaschai
·
2021-09-14
Jj
US stocks also need to switch styles? JPMorgan Chase: Lightening technology, adding positions procyclically!
自从美国经济复苏猛踩刹车以来，资金一度涌入科技股寻求庇护，但摩根大通却认为，是时候减仓科技股了。 摩根大通Marko Kolanovic等分析师近日表示，市场对经济增长的恐慌有些过度了，Delta变种
US stocks also need to switch styles? JPMorgan Chase: Lightening technology, adding positions procyclically!
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","text":"ZZZ7,/ok,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922394013","repostId":"2293725143","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2293725143","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671680253,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2293725143?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-22 11:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is Hong Kong stock OK again? Hengke Index once soared 5%. What is the key to see in the follow-up?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293725143","media":"格隆汇","summary":"珍惜复苏的窗口期","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the market yesterday, a number of heavy benefits landed. Today, Hong Kong stocks were \"salted fish reborn\", opening higher and going higher. The Hang Seng Technology Index once soared 5%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 529 points, or 2.74%, to 19,683 points. The H-Share index rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e6b89b12b8e9c1d668f0dd150cacf2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the news side, aided by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>(Nike) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>reported upbeat quarterly earnings, as well as improved consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations from investors. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday, with all three indexes rising by more than 1%, the largest one-day gain so far in December, and Chinese stocks soared by nearly 4%.</p><p>The policy side also ushered in a number of good news. The SFC proposes to promote<b>Form a normalized cooperation mechanism for audit supervision between China and the United States, and speed up the implementation of \"green light\" cases for overseas listing of platform enterprises</b>； The National Standing Committee emphasized adhering to the \"two unwavering principles\",<b>Support private enterprises to boost confidence and develop better. Support the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy.</b></p><p><h3>Hong Kong stocks have consolidated at high levels in recent days</h3>Yesterday, the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and closed higher, showing signs of stopping the fall after the previous day's sharp fall. However, due to the strong rebound of Hong Kong stocks after the optimization of epidemic prevention in November, the cumulative increase of Hang Seng Science Index was even as high as 50%, and then the funds chose to take profits and leave the market to wait and see.</p><p>The whole market sentiment plummeted with the absence of new hot spots. Yesterday, the turnover of Hong Kong stocks fell to less than 70 billion yuan, only 69.2 billion yuan. Superimposed on the return of funds brought by the Bank of Japan's unexpected sudden \"eagle\", under the restriction of stock funds, there is no obvious bright plate in the whole Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>With the successive implementation of the \"Twenty Articles\" and \"New Ten Articles\" of epidemic prevention policies, the marginal improvement effect brought by further adjustment of follow-up policies will also be reduced, and the market<b>At present, what is most concerned about is the recovery of social economic activities under the impact of the epidemic in the short term.</b></p><p><b>Looking forward to the first quarter, apart from the possibility of customs clearance with Hong Kong, we can hope that social activities will return to normal,</b>Among them, the first recovery is catering and tourism, so the sector was quite active yesterday, and today's holiday concept stocks continued to rise.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">Xiabuxiabu</a>It rose by more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01579\">Yihai International</a>It rose by nearly 7%, the US Mission rose by more than 5%, and Huazhu Group and Tongcheng Travel followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9feb0c63763f96a551e877ae5db663c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On December 21st, Xiabu Group disclosed the latest dine-in consumption situation, and Xiabu North China market ushered in the first small consumption peak of dine-in resumption, and the customer flow of some restaurants rapidly picked up, reproducing the scene of waiting in line.</p><p>According to Haidilao, the passenger flow of the store is gradually recovering. Since December 16th, the passenger flow has begun to rebound. In recent days, the passenger flow has increased by nearly 50% compared with the same period last week. Haidilao said that it is expected to continue to pick up in the next two weeks, especially holidays such as weekends, Christmas and New Year's Day, which will usher in a wave of peak periods.</p><p><h3>China Securities Regulatory Commission and National Standing Committee make heavy voices</h3>In addition, after the market yesterday, the CSRC and the Standing Committee of the State have the latest support measures on real estate and platform economy.</p><p>The CSRC held a meeting to emphasize the need to expand the high-level institutional opening of the capital market.<b>Promote the interconnection of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect to expand the target and optimize the trading calendar.</b></p><p><b>In terms of audit between China and the United States,</b>The CSRC pointed out that it would promote the formation of a normalized cooperation mechanism for audit supervision between China and the United States, and create a more stable and predictable international regulatory cooperation environment. Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system of enterprises, and speed up the implementation of the \"green light\" case of overseas listing of platform enterprises. We will deepen practical cooperation between the Mainland and Hong Kong capital markets and support Hong Kong to consolidate its status as an international financial centre.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that on the morning of December 15th, local time, the PCAOB of the United States released a report confirming that it can complete the inspection and investigation of accounting firms in mainland China and Hong Kong in 2022, and revoke the recognition of relevant firms in 2021. The market generally believes that this marks the positive results of Sino-US audit supervision cooperation, and releases a positive signal for Chinese enterprises to list in the United States.</p><p><b>In addition, the executive meeting of the State Council once again emphasized adhering to the \"two unwavering principles\" and supporting private enterprises to boost confidence and develop better. Support the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy.</b></p><p>Xie Logistics, senior investment consultant of Jufeng Investment Consulting, believes that the implementation of various measures of the National Standing Committee will help to improve and promote the stable development of the economy, and play an important role in boosting the confidence of private enterprises and the market. The meeting also mentioned \"supporting the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy\". There are thousands of jobs behind the platform economy. After the past period of supervision and governance, with the support of policies, it is believed that platform economy enterprises will play a greater role in the future. Today, technology stocks are in full swing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>It rose more than 9%, Aauto Quicker, JD.COM and Meituan rose more than 5%, Baidu and Alibaba rose more than 4%, and Netease and Tencent rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e559c00d1116c1165c5b7fac027a0b4c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding real estate,</b>The CSRC held a meeting to emphasize that it will vigorously support the stable development of the real estate market. Fully implement the plan to improve the balance sheet of high-quality housing enterprises, continue to implement the special support plan and support tools for bond financing of private enterprises, and better promote the cooperation and credit enhancement between the central and local governments to jointly support the issuance of bonds by private housing enterprises. Implement the equity financing policy of housing enterprises that has been introduced,<b>Qualified housing enterprises are allowed to \"backdoor\" listed housing enterprises, and listed companies in closely related industries such as real estate and construction are allowed to implement housing-related restructuring. Accelerate the creation of affordable rental housing REITs segment.</b></p><p>The central bank held a meeting to emphasize that supporting rigid and improved housing demand and guiding<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>Support the restructuring and mergers and acquisitions of the real estate industry, promote the prevention and resolution of risks of high-quality leading real estate enterprises, and improve the assets and liabilities of leading real estate enterprises.</p><p>Benefiting from this, the domestic housing stocks opened higher and went higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03301\">Ronshine China</a>It rose by over 22%, and Zhengrong Real Estate rose by over 8%.</p><p>The surge of consumer stocks such as technology stocks, mainland housing stocks and catering has driven the three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks to rise brightly.<b>This is because financial real estate, technology and other industries account for a large proportion of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks.</b></p><p>According to the quarterly inspection results of the Hang Seng Index in the third quarter, from the perspective of industry division, the proportion of financial industry in the Hang Seng Index dropped from 34.66% to 33.98%, public utilities dropped from 3.21% to 3.13%, real estate rose from 7.03% to 7.05%, and industry and commerce rose from 55.1% to 55.84%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf533c5f1d91a3f8e56307f495b09cd3\" tg-width=\"1156\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: CICC Securities</p><p>After this adjustment, the coverage of real estate construction and non-essential and essential consumption increased from 48.1% and 48.4% to 50.5% and 50.7%, respectively.; The market capitalization of the new economy of the Hang Seng Index reached 48%. Therefore, from a microscopic point of view, the news about the new economy, real estate, finance and other aspects has a great impact on the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p><h3>What do you think of the value of subsequent investment?</h3>On the whole, with overseas liquidity, domestic economic conditions, macro policy factors and other aspects expected to improve, most brokerage analysts believe that the cost performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks is outstanding, and it is expected that the trend next year will be full of hope.</p><p>According to the analysis of Ping An Securities, the high point of Hang Seng Index next year will be between 23,000-25,000, and it is recommended to allocate high-quality assets of Hong Kong stocks on dips.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">Guohai Securities</a>It is believed that under the circumstances that internal policies release favorable signals and the influence of the Federal Reserve's rate hike will gradually weaken, we are optimistic about the boost of Internet performance after the recovery of external factors, the subsequent epidemic situation and the improvement of macro margins, and maintain the \"recommended\" rating of the industry.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>It said that 23 years is the year of Davis double-click in the Internet section, and both the profit end and the valuation end will perform beyond expectations.</p><p>In addition, foreign-funded institutions also suggest overweighing the Chinese stock market. JPMorgan sees 10% upside for MSCI China in 2023;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It believes that Chinese stocks will outperform other markets in 2023, and recommends increasing their holdings. Morgan Stanley is bullish on China's stock market again after nearly two years, raising the target point of Hang Seng Index from 18,200 points to 21,200 points.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Hong Kong stock OK again? Hengke Index once soared 5%. What is the key to see in the follow-up?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Hong Kong stock OK again? Hengke Index once soared 5%. What is the key to see in the follow-up?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-22 11:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the market yesterday, a number of heavy benefits landed. Today, Hong Kong stocks were \"salted fish reborn\", opening higher and going higher. The Hang Seng Technology Index once soared 5%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 529 points, or 2.74%, to 19,683 points. The H-Share index rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e6b89b12b8e9c1d668f0dd150cacf2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the news side, aided by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>(Nike) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>reported upbeat quarterly earnings, as well as improved consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations from investors. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday, with all three indexes rising by more than 1%, the largest one-day gain so far in December, and Chinese stocks soared by nearly 4%.</p><p>The policy side also ushered in a number of good news. The SFC proposes to promote<b>Form a normalized cooperation mechanism for audit supervision between China and the United States, and speed up the implementation of \"green light\" cases for overseas listing of platform enterprises</b>； The National Standing Committee emphasized adhering to the \"two unwavering principles\",<b>Support private enterprises to boost confidence and develop better. Support the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy.</b></p><p><h3>Hong Kong stocks have consolidated at high levels in recent days</h3>Yesterday, the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and closed higher, showing signs of stopping the fall after the previous day's sharp fall. However, due to the strong rebound of Hong Kong stocks after the optimization of epidemic prevention in November, the cumulative increase of Hang Seng Science Index was even as high as 50%, and then the funds chose to take profits and leave the market to wait and see.</p><p>The whole market sentiment plummeted with the absence of new hot spots. Yesterday, the turnover of Hong Kong stocks fell to less than 70 billion yuan, only 69.2 billion yuan. Superimposed on the return of funds brought by the Bank of Japan's unexpected sudden \"eagle\", under the restriction of stock funds, there is no obvious bright plate in the whole Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>With the successive implementation of the \"Twenty Articles\" and \"New Ten Articles\" of epidemic prevention policies, the marginal improvement effect brought by further adjustment of follow-up policies will also be reduced, and the market<b>At present, what is most concerned about is the recovery of social economic activities under the impact of the epidemic in the short term.</b></p><p><b>Looking forward to the first quarter, apart from the possibility of customs clearance with Hong Kong, we can hope that social activities will return to normal,</b>Among them, the first recovery is catering and tourism, so the sector was quite active yesterday, and today's holiday concept stocks continued to rise.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">Xiabuxiabu</a>It rose by more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01579\">Yihai International</a>It rose by nearly 7%, the US Mission rose by more than 5%, and Huazhu Group and Tongcheng Travel followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9feb0c63763f96a551e877ae5db663c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On December 21st, Xiabu Group disclosed the latest dine-in consumption situation, and Xiabu North China market ushered in the first small consumption peak of dine-in resumption, and the customer flow of some restaurants rapidly picked up, reproducing the scene of waiting in line.</p><p>According to Haidilao, the passenger flow of the store is gradually recovering. Since December 16th, the passenger flow has begun to rebound. In recent days, the passenger flow has increased by nearly 50% compared with the same period last week. Haidilao said that it is expected to continue to pick up in the next two weeks, especially holidays such as weekends, Christmas and New Year's Day, which will usher in a wave of peak periods.</p><p><h3>China Securities Regulatory Commission and National Standing Committee make heavy voices</h3>In addition, after the market yesterday, the CSRC and the Standing Committee of the State have the latest support measures on real estate and platform economy.</p><p>The CSRC held a meeting to emphasize the need to expand the high-level institutional opening of the capital market.<b>Promote the interconnection of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect to expand the target and optimize the trading calendar.</b></p><p><b>In terms of audit between China and the United States,</b>The CSRC pointed out that it would promote the formation of a normalized cooperation mechanism for audit supervision between China and the United States, and create a more stable and predictable international regulatory cooperation environment. Promote the implementation of the reform of the overseas listing system of enterprises, and speed up the implementation of the \"green light\" case of overseas listing of platform enterprises. We will deepen practical cooperation between the Mainland and Hong Kong capital markets and support Hong Kong to consolidate its status as an international financial centre.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that on the morning of December 15th, local time, the PCAOB of the United States released a report confirming that it can complete the inspection and investigation of accounting firms in mainland China and Hong Kong in 2022, and revoke the recognition of relevant firms in 2021. The market generally believes that this marks the positive results of Sino-US audit supervision cooperation, and releases a positive signal for Chinese enterprises to list in the United States.</p><p><b>In addition, the executive meeting of the State Council once again emphasized adhering to the \"two unwavering principles\" and supporting private enterprises to boost confidence and develop better. Support the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy.</b></p><p>Xie Logistics, senior investment consultant of Jufeng Investment Consulting, believes that the implementation of various measures of the National Standing Committee will help to improve and promote the stable development of the economy, and play an important role in boosting the confidence of private enterprises and the market. The meeting also mentioned \"supporting the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy\". There are thousands of jobs behind the platform economy. After the past period of supervision and governance, with the support of policies, it is believed that platform economy enterprises will play a greater role in the future. Today, technology stocks are in full swing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>It rose more than 9%, Aauto Quicker, JD.COM and Meituan rose more than 5%, Baidu and Alibaba rose more than 4%, and Netease and Tencent rose more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e559c00d1116c1165c5b7fac027a0b4c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding real estate,</b>The CSRC held a meeting to emphasize that it will vigorously support the stable development of the real estate market. Fully implement the plan to improve the balance sheet of high-quality housing enterprises, continue to implement the special support plan and support tools for bond financing of private enterprises, and better promote the cooperation and credit enhancement between the central and local governments to jointly support the issuance of bonds by private housing enterprises. Implement the equity financing policy of housing enterprises that has been introduced,<b>Qualified housing enterprises are allowed to \"backdoor\" listed housing enterprises, and listed companies in closely related industries such as real estate and construction are allowed to implement housing-related restructuring. Accelerate the creation of affordable rental housing REITs segment.</b></p><p>The central bank held a meeting to emphasize that supporting rigid and improved housing demand and guiding<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>Support the restructuring and mergers and acquisitions of the real estate industry, promote the prevention and resolution of risks of high-quality leading real estate enterprises, and improve the assets and liabilities of leading real estate enterprises.</p><p>Benefiting from this, the domestic housing stocks opened higher and went higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03301\">Ronshine China</a>It rose by over 22%, and Zhengrong Real Estate rose by over 8%.</p><p>The surge of consumer stocks such as technology stocks, mainland housing stocks and catering has driven the three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks to rise brightly.<b>This is because financial real estate, technology and other industries account for a large proportion of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks.</b></p><p>According to the quarterly inspection results of the Hang Seng Index in the third quarter, from the perspective of industry division, the proportion of financial industry in the Hang Seng Index dropped from 34.66% to 33.98%, public utilities dropped from 3.21% to 3.13%, real estate rose from 7.03% to 7.05%, and industry and commerce rose from 55.1% to 55.84%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf533c5f1d91a3f8e56307f495b09cd3\" tg-width=\"1156\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: CICC Securities</p><p>After this adjustment, the coverage of real estate construction and non-essential and essential consumption increased from 48.1% and 48.4% to 50.5% and 50.7%, respectively.; The market capitalization of the new economy of the Hang Seng Index reached 48%. Therefore, from a microscopic point of view, the news about the new economy, real estate, finance and other aspects has a great impact on the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p><h3>What do you think of the value of subsequent investment?</h3>On the whole, with overseas liquidity, domestic economic conditions, macro policy factors and other aspects expected to improve, most brokerage analysts believe that the cost performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks is outstanding, and it is expected that the trend next year will be full of hope.</p><p>According to the analysis of Ping An Securities, the high point of Hang Seng Index next year will be between 23,000-25,000, and it is recommended to allocate high-quality assets of Hong Kong stocks on dips.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">Guohai Securities</a>It is believed that under the circumstances that internal policies release favorable signals and the influence of the Federal Reserve's rate hike will gradually weaken, we are optimistic about the boost of Internet performance after the recovery of external factors, the subsequent epidemic situation and the improvement of macro margins, and maintain the \"recommended\" rating of the industry.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>It said that 23 years is the year of Davis double-click in the Internet section, and both the profit end and the valuation end will perform beyond expectations.</p><p>In addition, foreign-funded institutions also suggest overweighing the Chinese stock market. JPMorgan sees 10% upside for MSCI China in 2023;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It believes that Chinese stocks will outperform other markets in 2023, and recommends increasing their holdings. Morgan Stanley is bullish on China's stock market again after nearly two years, raising the target point of Hang Seng Index from 18,200 points to 21,200 points.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/570137\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3c5eecabc22a565a773e3dd9ba0631","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/570137","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2293725143","content_text":"昨日盘后多项重磅利好落地，今日港股“咸鱼翻生”，高开高走，恒生科技指数一度飙涨5%，恒指上涨529点，或2.74%，报19683点。国指涨超3%。消息面上，受助于耐克(Nike)和联邦快递公布乐观的季度盈利，以及消费信心改善和投资者的通胀预期下降。美国股市三大股指周三收高，三大指数均涨超1%，创12月迄今最大单日涨幅，中概股大涨近4%。政策面也迎来多项利好消息。证监会提出推动形成中美审计监管常态化合作机制，加快平台企业境外上市“绿灯”案例落地；国常会强调坚持“两个毫不动摇”，支持民营企业提振信心、更好发展。支持平台经济健康持续发展。港股近日高位盘整港股昨日三大指数震荡收涨，继前一日大跌后有止跌迹象。但由于港股在11月的疫情防疫优化后强势反弹，恒生科指累计涨幅甚至高达50%随后资金纷纷选择获利了结，离场观望。整个市场气氛随着没有新热点而急降，昨日港股成交跌至不足700亿，仅有692亿元。叠加日本央行出人意料突然“转鹰”带来的资金回流，因此在存量资金的限制下，整个港股并没有明显的亮眼板块。随着防疫政策“二十条”以及“新十条”的陆续落地，后续政策的进一步调整带来的边际改善效应也会有所减小，市场目前最为关注的是在短期在疫情的冲击下，社会面的经济活动的回恢复情况。展望一季度，除了存在与香港通关的可能性外，能寄望的就是社会面活动恢复正常，这当中先复苏的是餐饮旅游，所以该板块昨日相当活跃，今日假日概念股持续拉升，呷哺呷哺涨超14%，海底捞涨超10%，颐海国际涨近7%，美团涨超5%，华住集团、同程旅行等跟涨。12月21日，呷哺集团披露最新堂食消费情况，呷哺华北市场迎来恢复堂食的首个消费小高峰，部分餐厅客流迅速回暖，重现排队等位的场景。据海底捞介绍，门店的客流量正在逐步恢复，12月16日起客流开始出现回升，这几天客流量较上周同期增长近五成。海底捞表示，预计未来2周会持续回暖，尤其是像周末、圣诞节、元旦节这样的节假日，会迎来一波高峰期。证监会、国常会重磅发声另外，昨日盘后，证监会、国常会关于房地产、平台经济均有最新的的支持措施。证监会召开会议强调，扩大资本市场高水平制度型开放。推动沪深港通互联互通扩大标的、优化交易日历落地。中美审计方面，证监会指出推动形成中美审计监管常态化合作机制，营造更加稳定、可预期的国际监管合作环境。推动企业境外上市制度改革落地实施，加快平台企业境外上市“绿灯”案例落地。深化内地与香港资本市场务实合作，支持香港巩固国际金融中心地位。值得一提的还是，当地时间12月15日上午，美PCAOB发布报告，确认2022年度可以对中国内地和香港会计师事务所完成检查和调查，撤销2021年对相关事务所作出的认定。市场普遍认为这标志着中美审计监管合作取得积极成效，对中国企业在美上市释放出积极信号。另外，国务院常务会议再度强调坚持“两个毫不动摇”，支持民营企业提振信心、更好发展。支持平台经济健康持续发展。巨丰投顾高级投资顾问谢后勤认为，国常会各项措施的实施将有助于改善和促进经济的平稳发展，对提振民营企业和市场信心有重要作用。本次会议还提到“支持平台经济健康持续发展”。平台经济背后关系到千千万万的就业岗位。在经过过去一段时间的监管治理之后，在政策支持下，相信未来平台经济企业将会发挥更大作用。今日科技股全面爆发，哔哩哔哩-W涨超9%，快手、京东、美团涨超5%，百度、阿里巴巴涨超4%，网易、腾讯涨超3%。关于房地产，证监会召开会议强调，大力支持房地产市场平稳发展。全面落实改善优质房企资产负债表计划，继续实施民企债券融资专项支持计划和支持工具，更好推进央地合作增信共同支持民营房企发债。落实好已出台的房企股权融资政策，允许符合条件的房企“借壳”已上市房企，允许房地产和建筑等密切相关行业上市公司实施涉房重组。加快打造保障性租赁住房REITs板块。央行召开会议强调，支持刚性和改善性住房需求，引导金融机构支持房地产行业重组并购，推动防范化解优质头部房企风险，改善头部房企资产负债状况。受益于此，内房股高开高走。融信中国涨超22%，正荣地产涨超8%。科技股、内房股、餐饮等消费股的大涨带动港股三大指数涨幅亮眼。这是因为金融地产、科技等行业在恒指成分股的占比较大。根据恒指三季度的季检结果显示，从行业划分来看，金融业在恒指中的比重从34.66%降至33.98%，公用事业由3.21%降至3.13%，地产由7.03%升至7.05%，工商业由55.1%升至55.84%。来源：中金证券此次调整后，地产建筑业和非必需性和必需性消费的覆盖度分别从48.1%和48.4%提升至50.5%和50.7%。；恒指新经济市值占比达到48%。因此微观来看，有关于新经济、地产、金融等方面的消息对港股的走势影响较大。后续投资价值怎么看？整体上看，在海外流动性、国内经济状况、宏观政策因素等多方面预期转好的情况下，大多数券商分析师认为港股性价比凸显，料明年走势充满希望。平安证券分析指，明年恒指高点在23000-25000之间，推荐逢低配置港股优质资产。国海证券认为在内部政策释放利好信号、美联储加息影响将逐渐减弱的情况下，看好外围因素回暖、后续疫情和宏观边际改善后的互联网业绩提振，维持行业“推荐”评级。浙商证券则表示，23年是互联网版块戴维斯双击之年，利润端和估值端都将有超预期表现。此外，外资机构同样建议超配中国股市。小摩预计2023年MSCI中国指数的上涨空间为10%；高盛则认为中国股票将在2023年跑赢其他市场，建议增持。大摩更是时隔近两年再次看多中国股市，将恒指的目标点位从18200点提高到21200点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.6,"HHImain":0.6,"HSTECH":0.9,"MCHmain":0.6,"HSI":1,"02833":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030902315,"gmtCreate":1645592714350,"gmtModify":1676534043747,"author":{"id":"4090730840029950","authorId":"4090730840029950","name":"thomaschai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0ea90d448581d311ba0fca8614ef4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090730840029950","idStr":"4090730840029950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ggggg","listText":"Ggggg","text":"Ggggg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030902315","repostId":"1120506339","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120506339","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645537550,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120506339?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-22 21:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Haidilao's pre-loss exceeded 3.8 billion yuan last year. Is there a play for this year's comeback?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120506339","media":"野马财经","summary":"海底捞将遭遇上市以来首次亏损。2月21日，海底捞发布盈利预警——2021年全年预计亏损38亿元至45亿元。财报显示，2018年至2020年，海底捞的净利润分别为16.46亿元、23.45亿元、3.09","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>Will suffer the first loss since listing.</p><p>On February 21st, Haidilao issued a profit warning — —<b>It is expected to lose 3.8 billion to 4.5 billion yuan for the full year of 2021.</b>According to the financial report, from 2018 to 2020, Haidilao's net profit was 1.646 billion yuan, 2.345 billion yuan and 309 million yuan respectively, totaling about 4.3 billion yuan. In other words, Haidilao, which also made a profit of 94.529 million yuan in the first half of 2021,<b>In only half a year, he almost lost all the profits of three years of listing.</b></p><p>In response to the reason for the loss, Haidilao said,<b>In 2021, more than 300 restaurants were closed, as well as the decline in restaurant performance and other factors, resulting in one-time losses and impairment losses on disposal of long-term assets (buildings, equipment, etc.) totaling approximately 3.3 billion to 3.9 billion yuan.</b>In addition, Haidilao also mentioned the impact of the pandemic, rapid expansion, and internal management problems.</p><p>Haidilao's profit dropped sharply, and the attitude of the keen capital market towards the once \"myth of the catering industry\" was the same.</p><p>As of the close of trading on February 22nd, Haidilao reported HK$ 18.92/share, with a total market value of HK$ 105.5 billion (about RMB 85.737 billion). In February 2021, Haidilao's share price reached a historical peak of HK$85.75 per share, and its total market value was once close to HK$470 billion (approximately RMB381.958 billion).<b>In contrast, Haidilao evaporated nearly 300 billion yuan in one year.</b></p><p>Haidilao once became a \"phenomenal\" existence with its high-quality service. Before it went public, it relied on tens of billions of revenue and was called the \"aircraft carrier\" of the catering industry. Nowadays, Haidilao not only suffers a sharp drop in profit and stock price, but also keeps falling into the public opinion of price increase, shortage of pounds and even food safety.</p><p>Has Haidilao skimmed the bubble, or is it going to fall to the bottom of the sea?</p><p><b>Emergency braking closes 1/5 stores</b></p><p>How fast has Haidilao expanded in recent years? As of 2017, before listing, Haidilao was founded for 23 years, with a total of only 273 stores. After listing, Haidilao began to accelerate its expansion-a net increase of 193 stores in 2018; 308 new openings in 2019; In 2020, the pandemic continued to expand by 544; In the first half of 2021, 299 new businesses were added again.</p><p>Rapid expansion strategies stimulate the nerves of investors in the secondary market. Since its listing on September 26, 2018, Haidilao's share price has reached a record high of HK$85.75 per share from the issue price of HK$17.8 per share to February 2021, with a total market value once close to HK$470 billion.</p><p><b>Haidilao founders Zhang Yong and his wife and second-in-command Shi Yonghong placed 70.5 million shares at a price of HK$33.2 per share on May 6, 2020, cashing out a total of 2.34 billion yuan.</b></p><p>In November 2021, Haidilao suddenly took the initiative to brake, announcing the gradual closure of about 300 stores that failed to meet expectations, some of which will be temporarily rested and reopened at an opportunity, with a maximum rest period of no more than two years.</p><p>As for the reason for closing the store, Haidilao said that the operation of the stores planned to be closed failed to meet expectations, which was caused by the rapid expansion strategy formulated in 2019. Specifically, it includes the wrong location of some stores, the change of organizational structure that makes managers too tired, the number of excellent managers is insufficient, the KPI indicators of overbelief in connected interests are overbelieved, and the construction of corporate culture is insufficient.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, the number of Haidilao stores worldwide reached 1,597. The closure of 300 stores means that the number of stores in Haidilao will be reduced by 1/5.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddefb76a367ec0d40497a273ae82b807\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Can Gallery</p><p>Behind the survival of the broken arm, Haidilao is trapped in the dark cloud of \"increasing income without increasing profits\".</p><p>According to the announcement, Haidilao's revenue in 2021 is expected to exceed RMB 40 billion, compared with the revenue of about RMB 28.6 billion in 2020, an increase of more than 40%.</p><p>The revenue hit a record high, but the net profit is expected to lose 3.8 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan. The reason behind this is closely related to the turnover rate. Table turnover rate refers to the average number of times each table is used in a restaurant in a day. It is recognized as the core data of the catering industry, which is directly related to the income of the restaurant and directly reflects the customer's love for the restaurant.</p><p>In 2018, Haidilao served 160 million people, with an average turnover rate of 5.2 times/day, almost the highest turnover rate in the catering industry. However, in recent years, the turnover rate of Haidilao has declined continuously.<b>In 2019 and 2020, the turnover rate of Haidilao was 4.8 times/day and 3.5 times/day, respectively, and directly dropped to 3 times/day in 2021.</b></p><p>The enthusiasm of the capital market is not directly proportional to the word-of-mouth in the market.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, Haidilao has been on the hot search for more than 35 times in 2021, and there are many negative topics, such as \"Haidilao beef grains have changed\", \"Zhengzhou Haidilao 72 yuan 200 grams of tripe is actually only 138 grams\" and so on.</p><p>On the evening of November 1, 2021, the topic \"Haidilao Douhua was fined 20,000 yuan for expiration\" also topped the hot search list.</p><p>In the case of increasing income and increasing profits, Haidilao's signature quality \"shrank\", its reputation declined or affected diners' patronage, and it fell into an a vicious circle.</p><p><b>\"Master-Apprentice System\" Stalled</b></p><p>As early as the beginning of 2021, a number of media reported the phenomenon of \"closure tide\" of Haidilao stores in Beijing. The main reason is improper site selection.</p><p>According to Caijing.com,<b>According to a person familiar with the matter, \"In fact, Haidilao signed more than 600 stores last year (2020), but actually only opened more than 300 stores. Haidilao lowered the standard of opening stores, but now it has found a 'stall', and recently stopped some unoptimistic stores.\"</b></p><p>The person familiar with the matter also said, \"Sanlitun is only 4.4 kilometers away from Youtang. Within this range, there are nearly six stores, such as SOHO Store, 3.3 Store, Huapu Shopping Store, Ritan Store and Youtang Store under renovation. For catering brands that go to dinner, they generally don't tend to open two stores within three kilometers.\"</p><p>Generally speaking, the location of a brand's stores is mainly led by development and development personnel. In Haidilao, the store manager, that is, \"Master\", is currently responsible for the location of the store.</p><p>All along, the \"master-apprentice system\" has been a proud management tool of Haidilao in the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01da9343a6182c8a27185ded836ac8a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Can Gallery</p><p>According to Haidilao's prospectus, in addition to the basic salary, the remuneration of a store manager as a master can also be rewarded with the higher of the following two options:</p><p><b>A: 2.8% of its managed restaurant profits;</b></p><p><b>B: Own restaurant profit 0.4% + number of apprentice restaurants * apprentice restaurant profit 3.1% + number of apprentice and grandson restaurants * apprentice and grandson restaurant profit 1.5%</b></p><p>Take the monthly profit of 1 million yuan in your own restaurant as an example. If the store manager only does his own restaurant well, he can get a bonus of 28,000 yuan; However, if the store manager takes out two apprentice shops (the monthly profit is also 1 million), the profit share of the store manager only can reach 2*100*3.1% =62,000.</p><p>Under such a salary structure, the wealth myth of Haidilao store manager's highest annual salary of 6 million yuan was created.</p><p>It is also driven by the \"master-apprentice system\" management mode that there is such a huge number of stores in Haidilao \"empire\". Previously, some market voices thought that:<b>\"Haidilao didn't start by service. Its secret is 'pyramid scheme', which is a master-apprentice system.\"</b></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhou Zhaocheng, executive director and chief strategy officer of Haidilao, publicly affirmed the benefits of the \"master-apprentice system\" for store location selection.</p><p>\"When Master takes his apprentice to open a store, he will definitely do his best to choose a new store location with the greatest commercial potential and the highest rate of return. However, if it is only the development specialist who decides, it is very likely that there will be a risk of wrong site selection because he does not need to be responsible for future operations. The probabilities between the two are very different.\"</p><p>In June 2021, at the annual general meeting of Haidilao, Chairman Zhang Yong publicly reflected,<b>Acknowledging that the decision to make the store expansion in June 2020 was wrong. In the announcement issued on November 5, 2021, Haidilao once again admitted the phenomenon of \"mistakes in location selection of some stores\" caused by the rapid expansion strategy. The root cause is the interest chain of \"master-apprentice system\" store opening.</b></p><p><b>The tuition was not paid in vain</b></p><p>At the same time, Haidilao announced the launch of the \"Woodpecker\" plan, continued to pay attention to stores with poor operating performance, strengthened internal management and assessment mechanism, and reduced business expansion.<b>Before the company's operating conditions are comprehensively improved, the company will shrink the Group's business expansion plan in due course, and the average turnover rate will not reach 4 times/day. In principle, new branches will not be opened on a large scale.</b></p><p>It can be seen that Haidilao has realized that there are extremely high risks in the economic downturn and contrarian expansion during the epidemic period, and its own management mode needs to be improved. This time, the tuition was not paid in vain.</p><p>However, where does Haidilao go next?</p><p>Zhu Danpeng, a food industry analyst, believes that on the whole, Haidilao's strategy can be described as \"surviving with a broken arm\", which should be a more correct approach, and there is not much room for expansion in Haidilao in the future.</p><p>At present, the hot pot track is churning in the Red Sea, and high-end and segmentation have become a trend.</p><p>According to the report of \"China Catering Big Data 2020\", with the development of the industry and the improvement of residents' disposable income level, the number of stores with a customer unit price of 120 yuan and above accounts for a small amount of hot pot restaurants in China, but it is growing rapidly, while the number of stores with a customer unit price of 30 yuan and below has experienced negative growth in all tier cities.</p><p>Among them, the competition among the top hot pot brands is more intense.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">Xiabuxiabu</a>Its high-end hot pot brand Coucou has developed particularly rapidly in recent years, and has become a strong rival in Haidilao's next development road.<b>Take the per capita consumption on public comments as an example. Searching for Coucou hot pot in Shanghai, the price range is 150-170 yuan, and the price range of Haidilao is 100-150 yuan. In terms of unit price, the hot pot has exceeded the price of Haidilao.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaef3a3216232fae7d71ad90cfb1153\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Can Gallery</p><p>In terms of service, at the end of 2020, Coucou launched the first new model store of \"hot pot + tavern + tea drink\" in China, selling hot pot at noon, milk tea in the afternoon, and turning it into a bar at night. In the hot pot restaurant, \"Bundy\" directly benchmarks Haidilao's \"hair washing\" and \"nail art\" in the hot pot restaurant. Haidilao has always been famous for its \"good service\", and it is possible to replace \"Haidilao-style service\" by making differentiated service forms.</p><p>Meanwhile, brand rookies appeared one after another to carve up the cake.</p><p>August 2021,<b>Brother Zhou Hot Pot received hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing from Black Ant Capital; Banu Maodu Hot Pot also said that it will complete a new round of financing of over 500 million yuan, led by CPE Yuanfeng Capital, followed by Sunchu Capital, Gaorong Capital and Tomato Capital.</b></p><p>However, some analysts pointed out that Haidilao still has potential room for growth-continuing to expand horizontally around the hot pot scene.</p><p>At present, Haidilao has made hot pot ingredients supermarket, ready-made food, fast food, and also opened a \"milk tea shop\". At the end of last year, Haidilao launched seven products, namely pot bottom, dishes and snacks, and plans to launch new products at least twice a year.</p><p>It is worth noting that as of the end of June 2021, Haidilao still had 3.5 billion yuan of cash and cash equivalents, which will undoubtedly increase the possibility and confidence of Haidilao's horizontal expansion.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589532854679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Haidilao's pre-loss exceeded 3.8 billion yuan last year. Is there a play for this year's comeback?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHaidilao's pre-loss exceeded 3.8 billion yuan last year. Is there a play for this year's comeback?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">野马财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-22 21:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>Will suffer the first loss since listing.</p><p>On February 21st, Haidilao issued a profit warning — —<b>It is expected to lose 3.8 billion to 4.5 billion yuan for the full year of 2021.</b>According to the financial report, from 2018 to 2020, Haidilao's net profit was 1.646 billion yuan, 2.345 billion yuan and 309 million yuan respectively, totaling about 4.3 billion yuan. In other words, Haidilao, which also made a profit of 94.529 million yuan in the first half of 2021,<b>In only half a year, he almost lost all the profits of three years of listing.</b></p><p>In response to the reason for the loss, Haidilao said,<b>In 2021, more than 300 restaurants were closed, as well as the decline in restaurant performance and other factors, resulting in one-time losses and impairment losses on disposal of long-term assets (buildings, equipment, etc.) totaling approximately 3.3 billion to 3.9 billion yuan.</b>In addition, Haidilao also mentioned the impact of the pandemic, rapid expansion, and internal management problems.</p><p>Haidilao's profit dropped sharply, and the attitude of the keen capital market towards the once \"myth of the catering industry\" was the same.</p><p>As of the close of trading on February 22nd, Haidilao reported HK$ 18.92/share, with a total market value of HK$ 105.5 billion (about RMB 85.737 billion). In February 2021, Haidilao's share price reached a historical peak of HK$85.75 per share, and its total market value was once close to HK$470 billion (approximately RMB381.958 billion).<b>In contrast, Haidilao evaporated nearly 300 billion yuan in one year.</b></p><p>Haidilao once became a \"phenomenal\" existence with its high-quality service. Before it went public, it relied on tens of billions of revenue and was called the \"aircraft carrier\" of the catering industry. Nowadays, Haidilao not only suffers a sharp drop in profit and stock price, but also keeps falling into the public opinion of price increase, shortage of pounds and even food safety.</p><p>Has Haidilao skimmed the bubble, or is it going to fall to the bottom of the sea?</p><p><b>Emergency braking closes 1/5 stores</b></p><p>How fast has Haidilao expanded in recent years? As of 2017, before listing, Haidilao was founded for 23 years, with a total of only 273 stores. After listing, Haidilao began to accelerate its expansion-a net increase of 193 stores in 2018; 308 new openings in 2019; In 2020, the pandemic continued to expand by 544; In the first half of 2021, 299 new businesses were added again.</p><p>Rapid expansion strategies stimulate the nerves of investors in the secondary market. Since its listing on September 26, 2018, Haidilao's share price has reached a record high of HK$85.75 per share from the issue price of HK$17.8 per share to February 2021, with a total market value once close to HK$470 billion.</p><p><b>Haidilao founders Zhang Yong and his wife and second-in-command Shi Yonghong placed 70.5 million shares at a price of HK$33.2 per share on May 6, 2020, cashing out a total of 2.34 billion yuan.</b></p><p>In November 2021, Haidilao suddenly took the initiative to brake, announcing the gradual closure of about 300 stores that failed to meet expectations, some of which will be temporarily rested and reopened at an opportunity, with a maximum rest period of no more than two years.</p><p>As for the reason for closing the store, Haidilao said that the operation of the stores planned to be closed failed to meet expectations, which was caused by the rapid expansion strategy formulated in 2019. Specifically, it includes the wrong location of some stores, the change of organizational structure that makes managers too tired, the number of excellent managers is insufficient, the KPI indicators of overbelief in connected interests are overbelieved, and the construction of corporate culture is insufficient.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, the number of Haidilao stores worldwide reached 1,597. The closure of 300 stores means that the number of stores in Haidilao will be reduced by 1/5.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddefb76a367ec0d40497a273ae82b807\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Can Gallery</p><p>Behind the survival of the broken arm, Haidilao is trapped in the dark cloud of \"increasing income without increasing profits\".</p><p>According to the announcement, Haidilao's revenue in 2021 is expected to exceed RMB 40 billion, compared with the revenue of about RMB 28.6 billion in 2020, an increase of more than 40%.</p><p>The revenue hit a record high, but the net profit is expected to lose 3.8 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan. The reason behind this is closely related to the turnover rate. Table turnover rate refers to the average number of times each table is used in a restaurant in a day. It is recognized as the core data of the catering industry, which is directly related to the income of the restaurant and directly reflects the customer's love for the restaurant.</p><p>In 2018, Haidilao served 160 million people, with an average turnover rate of 5.2 times/day, almost the highest turnover rate in the catering industry. However, in recent years, the turnover rate of Haidilao has declined continuously.<b>In 2019 and 2020, the turnover rate of Haidilao was 4.8 times/day and 3.5 times/day, respectively, and directly dropped to 3 times/day in 2021.</b></p><p>The enthusiasm of the capital market is not directly proportional to the word-of-mouth in the market.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, Haidilao has been on the hot search for more than 35 times in 2021, and there are many negative topics, such as \"Haidilao beef grains have changed\", \"Zhengzhou Haidilao 72 yuan 200 grams of tripe is actually only 138 grams\" and so on.</p><p>On the evening of November 1, 2021, the topic \"Haidilao Douhua was fined 20,000 yuan for expiration\" also topped the hot search list.</p><p>In the case of increasing income and increasing profits, Haidilao's signature quality \"shrank\", its reputation declined or affected diners' patronage, and it fell into an a vicious circle.</p><p><b>\"Master-Apprentice System\" Stalled</b></p><p>As early as the beginning of 2021, a number of media reported the phenomenon of \"closure tide\" of Haidilao stores in Beijing. The main reason is improper site selection.</p><p>According to Caijing.com,<b>According to a person familiar with the matter, \"In fact, Haidilao signed more than 600 stores last year (2020), but actually only opened more than 300 stores. Haidilao lowered the standard of opening stores, but now it has found a 'stall', and recently stopped some unoptimistic stores.\"</b></p><p>The person familiar with the matter also said, \"Sanlitun is only 4.4 kilometers away from Youtang. Within this range, there are nearly six stores, such as SOHO Store, 3.3 Store, Huapu Shopping Store, Ritan Store and Youtang Store under renovation. For catering brands that go to dinner, they generally don't tend to open two stores within three kilometers.\"</p><p>Generally speaking, the location of a brand's stores is mainly led by development and development personnel. In Haidilao, the store manager, that is, \"Master\", is currently responsible for the location of the store.</p><p>All along, the \"master-apprentice system\" has been a proud management tool of Haidilao in the industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01da9343a6182c8a27185ded836ac8a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Can Gallery</p><p>According to Haidilao's prospectus, in addition to the basic salary, the remuneration of a store manager as a master can also be rewarded with the higher of the following two options:</p><p><b>A: 2.8% of its managed restaurant profits;</b></p><p><b>B: Own restaurant profit 0.4% + number of apprentice restaurants * apprentice restaurant profit 3.1% + number of apprentice and grandson restaurants * apprentice and grandson restaurant profit 1.5%</b></p><p>Take the monthly profit of 1 million yuan in your own restaurant as an example. If the store manager only does his own restaurant well, he can get a bonus of 28,000 yuan; However, if the store manager takes out two apprentice shops (the monthly profit is also 1 million), the profit share of the store manager only can reach 2*100*3.1% =62,000.</p><p>Under such a salary structure, the wealth myth of Haidilao store manager's highest annual salary of 6 million yuan was created.</p><p>It is also driven by the \"master-apprentice system\" management mode that there is such a huge number of stores in Haidilao \"empire\". Previously, some market voices thought that:<b>\"Haidilao didn't start by service. Its secret is 'pyramid scheme', which is a master-apprentice system.\"</b></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhou Zhaocheng, executive director and chief strategy officer of Haidilao, publicly affirmed the benefits of the \"master-apprentice system\" for store location selection.</p><p>\"When Master takes his apprentice to open a store, he will definitely do his best to choose a new store location with the greatest commercial potential and the highest rate of return. However, if it is only the development specialist who decides, it is very likely that there will be a risk of wrong site selection because he does not need to be responsible for future operations. The probabilities between the two are very different.\"</p><p>In June 2021, at the annual general meeting of Haidilao, Chairman Zhang Yong publicly reflected,<b>Acknowledging that the decision to make the store expansion in June 2020 was wrong. In the announcement issued on November 5, 2021, Haidilao once again admitted the phenomenon of \"mistakes in location selection of some stores\" caused by the rapid expansion strategy. The root cause is the interest chain of \"master-apprentice system\" store opening.</b></p><p><b>The tuition was not paid in vain</b></p><p>At the same time, Haidilao announced the launch of the \"Woodpecker\" plan, continued to pay attention to stores with poor operating performance, strengthened internal management and assessment mechanism, and reduced business expansion.<b>Before the company's operating conditions are comprehensively improved, the company will shrink the Group's business expansion plan in due course, and the average turnover rate will not reach 4 times/day. In principle, new branches will not be opened on a large scale.</b></p><p>It can be seen that Haidilao has realized that there are extremely high risks in the economic downturn and contrarian expansion during the epidemic period, and its own management mode needs to be improved. This time, the tuition was not paid in vain.</p><p>However, where does Haidilao go next?</p><p>Zhu Danpeng, a food industry analyst, believes that on the whole, Haidilao's strategy can be described as \"surviving with a broken arm\", which should be a more correct approach, and there is not much room for expansion in Haidilao in the future.</p><p>At present, the hot pot track is churning in the Red Sea, and high-end and segmentation have become a trend.</p><p>According to the report of \"China Catering Big Data 2020\", with the development of the industry and the improvement of residents' disposable income level, the number of stores with a customer unit price of 120 yuan and above accounts for a small amount of hot pot restaurants in China, but it is growing rapidly, while the number of stores with a customer unit price of 30 yuan and below has experienced negative growth in all tier cities.</p><p>Among them, the competition among the top hot pot brands is more intense.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">Xiabuxiabu</a>Its high-end hot pot brand Coucou has developed particularly rapidly in recent years, and has become a strong rival in Haidilao's next development road.<b>Take the per capita consumption on public comments as an example. Searching for Coucou hot pot in Shanghai, the price range is 150-170 yuan, and the price range of Haidilao is 100-150 yuan. In terms of unit price, the hot pot has exceeded the price of Haidilao.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaef3a3216232fae7d71ad90cfb1153\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Credit: Can Gallery</p><p>In terms of service, at the end of 2020, Coucou launched the first new model store of \"hot pot + tavern + tea drink\" in China, selling hot pot at noon, milk tea in the afternoon, and turning it into a bar at night. In the hot pot restaurant, \"Bundy\" directly benchmarks Haidilao's \"hair washing\" and \"nail art\" in the hot pot restaurant. Haidilao has always been famous for its \"good service\", and it is possible to replace \"Haidilao-style service\" by making differentiated service forms.</p><p>Meanwhile, brand rookies appeared one after another to carve up the cake.</p><p>August 2021,<b>Brother Zhou Hot Pot received hundreds of millions of yuan in Series A financing from Black Ant Capital; Banu Maodu Hot Pot also said that it will complete a new round of financing of over 500 million yuan, led by CPE Yuanfeng Capital, followed by Sunchu Capital, Gaorong Capital and Tomato Capital.</b></p><p>However, some analysts pointed out that Haidilao still has potential room for growth-continuing to expand horizontally around the hot pot scene.</p><p>At present, Haidilao has made hot pot ingredients supermarket, ready-made food, fast food, and also opened a \"milk tea shop\". At the end of last year, Haidilao launched seven products, namely pot bottom, dishes and snacks, and plans to launch new products at least twice a year.</p><p>It is worth noting that as of the end of June 2021, Haidilao still had 3.5 billion yuan of cash and cash equivalents, which will undoubtedly increase the possibility and confidence of Haidilao's horizontal expansion.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/84HYmFZYuOiBM4wbOe9-Ug\">野马财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f2c25e060d113f3768c45cafc16292","relate_stocks":{"BK1583":"高瓴概念","06862":"海底捞","BK1233":"餐馆","BK1604":"节假日概念","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1591":"就地过年概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/84HYmFZYuOiBM4wbOe9-Ug","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120506339","content_text":"海底捞将遭遇上市以来首次亏损。2月21日，海底捞发布盈利预警——2021年全年预计亏损38亿元至45亿元。财报显示，2018年至2020年，海底捞的净利润分别为16.46亿元、23.45亿元、3.09亿元，合计约43亿元。也就是说，在2021年上半年还盈利9452.9万元的海底捞，仅半年时间就几乎亏光了上市三年的利润。针对亏损原因，海底捞称，2021年关闭了300多家餐厅，以及餐厅业绩下滑等因素，导致的处置长期资产（房屋、设备等）的一次性损失、减值损失等合计约33亿元至39亿元。此外，海底捞还提到了疫情、快速扩张，以及内部管理问题带来的影响。海底捞盈利大幅下跌，敏锐的资本市场对于曾经“餐饮界神话”的态度也与此同凉。截至2月22日收盘，海底捞报18.92港元/股，总市值1055亿港元（约合人民币857.37亿元）。而2021年2月，海底捞股价达到历史高峰85.75港元/股，总市值一度接近4700亿港元（约合人民币3819.58亿元）。对比来看，海底捞一年内就蒸发了将近3000亿元。曾经的海底捞凭借高质量的服务，一度成为“现象级”的存在，更在上市前，就靠着百亿营收，被称为餐饮界的“航母”。如今的海底捞不仅遭遇盈利、股价大幅下滑，还不断陷入涨价、缺斤少两，甚至食品安全的舆论之中。海底捞究竟是撇去了泡沫，还是要跌入海底？紧急刹车关闭1/5门店海底捞近年来扩张速度有多快？截至上市前的2017年，海底捞创立23年，门店总数仅有273家门店。上市后，海底捞开始加速扩张——2018年净增加门店193家；2019新开308家；2020年疫情之下继续扩张544家；2021年上半年再度新增299家。快速扩张策略刺激着二级市场投资人的神经。自2018年9月26日上市以来，海底捞股价从发行价为17.8港元/股，至2021年2月，创下历史新高的85.75港元/股，总市值曾一度接近4700亿港元。海底捞创始人张勇夫妇及二把手施永宏于2020年5月6日以每股33.2港元的价格配售7050万股股份，合计套现23.4亿元。2021年11月，海底捞突然主动刹车，宣布逐步关停300家左右经营未达预期门店，其中部分门店将暂时休整、择机重开，休整周期最长不超过两年。对于关店原因海底捞称，计划关停的门店经营未达预期是2019年制定的快速扩张策略导致。具体包括部分门店选址错误、组织结构改变让管理人员过于疲惫，优秀经理数量不足，过度相信连住利益的KPI指标，以及企业文化建设不足。截至2021年6月30日，海底捞全球门店数达到1597家。关闭300家店铺，意味着海底捞的门店数量将减少1/5。图片来源：罐头图库断臂求生的背后，海底捞困在“增收不增利”的乌云中。公告显示，海底捞2021年收入预计超过人民币400亿元，对比2020年收入约为人民币286亿元，增长超过40%。营收创历史新高，净利润却预计亏损38亿元至45亿元，这背后的原因和翻台率密切相关。翻台率是指一家餐厅一天内每张桌子的平均使用次数，是餐饮行业公认的核心数据，直接关系到餐厅的收入，也直接反映客户对餐厅的喜爱度。2018年，海底捞服务1.6亿人次，平均翻台率5.2次/天，几乎创下了餐饮界的最高翻台率。但近年来，海底捞的翻台率却出现连续下滑。2019年、2020年海底捞的翻台率分别为4.8次/天、3.5次/天，2021年直接降到3次/天。资本市场的热捧，和坊间的口碑并不成正比。据不完全统计，海底捞2021年登上热搜的次数已经超过35次，而且负面话题偏多，比如“海底捞牛肉粒变素了”“郑州海底捞72元200克毛肚实际只有138克”等等。2021年11月1日晚间，话题“海底捞豆花过期被罚款2万”还登上热搜榜首位。增收难增利的情况下，海底捞的招牌品质“缩水”，口碑下降或影响食客光顾，陷入恶性循环。“师徒制”失速早在2021年年初，多家媒体报道了北京海底捞门店的“歇业潮”现象。其主要原因便是选址不当导致。据财经网报道，知情人士透露，“其实海底捞去年（2020年）的店铺签约了600多家，实际只开了300多家，海底捞放低了开店标准，但现在已经发现了‘失速’，最近对部分不乐观的店面叫停。”该知情人士同时表示，“三里屯到悠唐也就4.4公里，这个范围内，有SOHO店、3.3店、华普商厦店、日坛店，以及装修中的悠唐店等近6个店铺。对于走正餐的餐饮品牌而言，一般三公里内都不倾向开两家店。”一般而言，一个品牌的店铺选址主要由开发拓展人员主导。而在海底捞，目前负责店铺选址的则是店长，即“师父”。一直以来，“师徒制”都是海底捞在业界引以为傲的管理手段。图片来源：罐头图库根据海底捞的招股书显示，作为师父的店长的薪酬除了基本薪金外，还可获得以下两种选项中较高者的财务奖励：A：其管理餐厅利润的2.8%；B：自身餐厅利润0.4%+徒弟餐厅数量*徒弟餐厅利润3.1%+徒孙餐厅数量*徒孙餐厅利润1.5%以自身餐厅每月100万利润为例，则店长如果只干好自己的餐厅，则可得到2.8万的奖金；但是如果店长带出了2个徒弟店（每月利润也为100万），则店长仅徒弟店的利润分成就可达到2*100*3.1%=6.2万。在这样的薪酬结构下，曾造就海底捞店长最高年薪600万元的财富神话。也正是在“师徒制”管理模式的驱动下，才有了目前门店数量如此庞大的海底捞“帝国”。此前有市场声音认为：“海底捞不是靠服务起家，它的机密是‘传销’，是师徒制 。”2020年年底，海底捞执行董事、首席战略官周兆呈曾公开肯定了“师徒制”对于门店选址的益处。“当师父带着徒弟拓店时，他一定会尽最大努力选一个商业潜力最大、回报率最高的新店址。但如果只是拓展专员决定，则很有可能因为无需对未来的运营负责，而出现错误选址的风险。这两者之间的概率是很不同的。”2021年6月，在海底捞股东周年大会上，董事长张勇曾公开反思，承认在2020年6月作出门店扩张的决定是错误的。2021年11月5日发布公告中，海底捞再次承认因为快速扩张策略导致的“部分门店选址出现失误”的现象，究其根因，便是令人上头的”师徒制“开店利益链。学费没白交关店同时，海底捞宣布开展“啄木鸟”计划，持续关注经营业绩不佳门店，强化内部管理和考核机制，收缩业务扩张。在公司经营状况全面改善前，公司将适时收缩集团的业务扩张计划，平均翻台率未达到4次/天，原则上不会规模化开设新的分店。可以看出海底捞已经意识到了经济低迷及疫情时期的逆势扩张存在极高风险，同时自身的管理模式有待改善。这一次，学费没有白交。不过，接下来海底捞何去何从？食品产业分析师朱丹蓬认为，综合来看，这次海底捞的策略可谓“断臂求生”，应该是比较正确的做法，而未来海底捞已没有太大的扩张空间。就目前来看，火锅赛道红海翻腾，高端化、细分化已成为趋势。《中国餐饮大数据2020》报告显示，随着行业发展以及居民可支配收入水平提高，当下在全国火锅店中，客单价120元及以上的门店数量虽然占比较小，但增长迅猛，而客单价30元及以下门店数在各线城市中都出现了负增长。其中，头部火锅品牌的竞争则更为激烈。呷哺呷哺旗下高端火锅品牌凑凑近年来发展尤为迅猛，成为海底捞接下来发展道路上的劲敌。以大众点评上的人均消费为例，搜索上海地区的凑凑火锅，价格区间在150-170元，海底捞的价格区间在100-150元。客单价上，凑凑火锅已经超出海底捞价位。图片来源：罐头图库服务上，2020年年底，凑凑推出全国首家“火锅＋酒馆＋茶饮”新模式店，中午卖火锅、下午卖奶茶、晚上摇身一变为酒吧。在火锅店里“蹦迪”直接对标了海底捞的在火锅店里“洗头”、“美甲”。海底捞一直以来以“服务好”闻名，而凑凑差异化的服务形态则为取代“海底捞式服务”找到可能。与此同时，品牌新秀相继亮相，瓜分蛋糕。2021年8月，周师兄火锅获得来自黑蚁资本数亿元的A轮融资；巴奴毛肚火锅也表示，将完成超5亿元新一轮融资，由CPE源峰资本领投，日初资本、高榕资本、番茄资本跟投。不过，也有分析指出，海底捞仍有潜在的增长空间——围绕火锅场景继续横向拓展。目前，海底捞做了火锅食材超市、预制菜、速食品，还开了“奶茶铺”。去年底，海底捞推出锅底、菜品和小吃7款产品，计划一年至少上新两次。值得注意的是，截至2021年6月底，海底捞仍有35亿元现金及现金等价物，这些无疑会增加海底捞横向拓展更多的可能性和底气。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06862":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030055023,"gmtCreate":1645584588382,"gmtModify":1676534042967,"author":{"id":"4090730840029950","authorId":"4090730840029950","name":"thomaschai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0ea90d448581d311ba0fca8614ef4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090730840029950","idStr":"4090730840029950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030055023","repostId":"2213963135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091475137,"gmtCreate":1643935605952,"gmtModify":1676533873269,"author":{"id":"4090730840029950","authorId":"4090730840029950","name":"thomaschai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0ea90d448581d311ba0fca8614ef4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090730840029950","idStr":"4090730840029950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091475137","repostId":"1103200225","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007472620,"gmtCreate":1642993141970,"gmtModify":1676533763265,"author":{"id":"4090730840029950","authorId":"4090730840029950","name":"thomaschai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0ea90d448581d311ba0fca8614ef4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090730840029950","idStr":"4090730840029950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hhhhh","listText":"Hhhhh","text":"Hhhhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007472620","repostId":"1155413027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155413027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642991287,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155413027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-24 10:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The Spring Festival is approaching, holding shares or holding coins","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155413027","media":"方正证券","summary":"春节又将临近，每逢此时，市场上总是兴起一股关于是持币过年还是持股过年的讨论。为此本文统计回顾了2010年至2021年春节前后A股市场的表现情况，供投资者参考。A股春节效应显著，节前节后市场上涨概率大，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Spring Festival is approaching again. At this time, there is always a discussion in the market about whether to hold money or hold shares for the New Year. Therefore, this paper statistically reviews the performance of A-share market around the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021 for investors' reference.</p><p><b>The effect of A-share Spring Festival is remarkable, and the probability of market rise before and after the holiday is high. In the past decade or so, the red envelope of Spring Festival in A-share market has obvious characteristics of low risk and high return.</b>From the perspective of increase, in the past 12 years, the average cumulative yield of wind All A in the five trading days before the Spring Festival is 1.9%, and the median is 2.6%, and the average cumulative yield in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is 1.4%, and the median is 1.8%. Moreover, the market performance during the Spring Festival over the years is obviously more stable than that of the whole year, that is to say, compared with the overall increase of the whole year, the market red envelopes during the Spring Festival have obvious characteristics of low risk and high return.</p><p><b>In contrast, the Shenzhen Component Index and GEM Index performed better than the Shanghai Composite Index, and the small and medium-sized cap indexes such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were better than the heavyweight indexes such as SSE 50 and CSI 300.</b>From the perspective of increase, in the past 12 years, the median cumulative yields of the GEM index in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival were 2.4% and 4.1% respectively, and the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.4% and 0.9%. The median cumulative yield of the National Securities 2000 Index in the past 12 years in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival was 2.0% and 4.4% respectively, while the CSI 300 Index was 1.9% and 0.6%.</p><p><b>Judging from the performance of various industries, the first-level industries in Shenwan generally closed up with a high probability around the Spring Festival, and the nonferrous metals, electronics, computer and other sectors performed relatively well.</b>The non-ferrous metals sector posted a median gain of 3.4% in the first five trading days of the Spring Festival between 2010 and 2021, which was the best performer among all sectors. In the five trading days after the Spring Festival, the median cumulative increase is still the best performance of the nonferrous industry, at 5.2%. In addition, the comprehensive performance of electronics, computer and other industries before and after the holiday is also good.</p><p><b>Judging from the performance of each style index, each major style index also has a high probability of closing up around the Spring Festival, and the style of high P/E is better than that of low P/E, the style of high-priced stocks is better than that of low-priced stocks, and the style of low-profit stocks with losses is better than that of blue-chip stocks.</b>The median accumulated gains of high-P/E stock styles in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival between 2010 and 2021 were 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively, better than the 1.9% and 0.6% of low-P/E stocks. The median accumulated gains of high-priced stock style in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years are 3.3% and 1.6% respectively, which is better than that of low-priced stocks of 1.1% and 2.4%. The median accumulated gains of loss-making stock style in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years are 2.3% and 4.2% respectively, which are better than the 2.5% and 0.6% of blue-chip stocks overall.</p><p>Risk: The macroeconomy is less than expected, overseas markets fluctuate greatly, and historical experience does not represent the future.</p><p>The text is as follows:</p><p>Holding shares or holding currencies, combing the market characteristics before and after the Spring Festival</p><p>The Spring Festival is approaching again. At this time, there is always a discussion in the market about whether to hold money or hold shares for the New Year. Therefore, this paper reviews the performance of A-share market around the Spring Festival in the past ten years for investors' reference.</p><p>1. A-share Spring Festival effect is significant, and the probability of market rise before and after the holiday is high</p><p>A-share Spring Festival effect is significant, and the probability of market rise before and after the holiday is relatively high. We have summarized the performance of the yield before and after the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021. Generally speaking, the performance of the A-share market before and after the Spring Festival is good in most cases, and the rising probability of major broad-based indexes is relatively high. In the past 12 years, in 9 years, the accumulated income of wind All A has risen in 5 trading days before and 5 trading days after the holiday, that is, the probability of increase is as high as 75%. In these 12 years, only 8 years of annual accumulated income of wind All A have been positive. Therefore, from the perspective of probability, there is indeed a significant Spring Festival effect in the performance of A-share market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebb634e1fdcb47287f6f64ad921dd0b\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of ups and downs, the Spring Festival red envelopes in the A-share market in the past decade or so have obvious characteristics of low risk and high return.</b>From the perspective of increase, in the past 12 years, the average cumulative yield of wind All A in the five trading days before the Spring Festival is 1.9%, and the median is 2.6%, and the average cumulative yield in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is 1.4%, and the median is 1.8%. And from the perspective of volatility, the market performance during the Spring Festival over the years is obviously more stable than that of the whole year, that is to say, compared with the overall increase of the whole year, the market red envelopes during the Spring Festival have obvious characteristics of low risk and high return.</p><p><b>In contrast, the Shenzhen Component Index and GEM Index performed better than the Shanghai Composite Index, and the small and medium-sized cap indexes such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were better than the heavyweight indexes such as SSE 50 and CSI 300.</b>From the perspective of increase, in the past 12 years, the median cumulative yields of the GEM index in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival were 2.4% and 4.1% respectively, and the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.4% and 0.9%. The median cumulative yield of the National Securities 2000 Index in the past 12 years in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival was 2.0% and 4.4% respectively, while the CSI 300 Index was 1.9% and 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582cd2589b619255738cf6d2f570069b\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. Nonferrous, electronic and computer performance is relatively dominant</p><p><b>Judging from the performance of various industries, in the past 10 years, the cumulative closing probability of each first-level industry in Shenwan in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival is generally above 50%.</b>Judging from the performance of various industries in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021, in most cases, the first-class industry of Shenwan performed better before and after the holiday, and the number of increases was much higher than the number of declines. Among them, the pharmaceutical and biological industry has all risen in the five trading days before the Spring Festival in the past 12 years, with a probability of rising as high as 100%, and a probability of rising as high as 92% in the five trading days after the Spring Festival. In addition, the probability of rising the electronic and electrical equipment industries in the five trading days before and after the holiday is also above 80%.</p><p><b>Judging from the absolute data of the ups and downs of various industries, the performance of nonferrous metals, electronics, computers and other sectors around the Spring Festival is relatively good, while the performance of the financial sector is relatively low.</b>The non-ferrous metals sector posted a median gain of 3.4% in the first five trading days of the Spring Festival between 2010 and 2021, which was the best performer among all sectors. In the five trading days after the Spring Festival, the median cumulative increase is still the best performance of the nonferrous industry, at 5.2%. In addition, the comprehensive performance of electronics, computer and other industries before and after the holiday is also good, while the financial sector performs relatively poorly in the five trading days before and after the holiday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19bfbbfde65d4117bf61534eeec75506\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503e1fbb70dea37f1e719bee7cceac27\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. High P/E is better than low P/E, high-priced stocks are better than low-priced stocks, and low-profit stocks are better than blue-chip stocks</p><p><b>Judging from the performance of various style indexes, the probability that the main style indexes of the A-share market will close up in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival is generally above 60%.</b>Judging from the performance of various industries in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021, each style index performed better before and after the holiday, and the number of rises was also much higher than the number of declines. Among them, the high P/E style index has a rising probability of more than 80% in the past 12 years in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival.</p><p><b>Judging from the absolute value data of the ups and downs of each style index, around the Spring Festival, the style of high P/E is better than that of low P/E, the style of high-priced stocks is better than that of low-priced stocks, and the style of low-profit stocks is better than that of blue-chip stocks.</b>The median accumulated gains of high-P/E stock styles in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival between 2010 and 2021 were 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively, better than the 1.9% and 0.6% of low-P/E stocks. The median accumulated gains of high-priced stock style in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years are 3.3% and 1.6% respectively, which is better than that of low-priced stocks of 1.1% and 2.4%. The median accumulated gains of loss-making stock style in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years are 2.3% and 4.2% respectively, which are better than the 2.5% and 0.6% of blue-chip stocks overall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55520b80f80e1ed42fb553ec3282e634\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5464cc2dab3b0eaba26b6ecc77dc615\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583736415415","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Spring Festival is approaching, holding shares or holding coins</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Spring Festival is approaching, holding shares or holding coins\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">方正证券</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-24 10:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Spring Festival is approaching again. At this time, there is always a discussion in the market about whether to hold money or hold shares for the New Year. Therefore, this paper statistically reviews the performance of A-share market around the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021 for investors' reference.</p><p><b>The effect of A-share Spring Festival is remarkable, and the probability of market rise before and after the holiday is high. In the past decade or so, the red envelope of Spring Festival in A-share market has obvious characteristics of low risk and high return.</b>From the perspective of increase, in the past 12 years, the average cumulative yield of wind All A in the five trading days before the Spring Festival is 1.9%, and the median is 2.6%, and the average cumulative yield in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is 1.4%, and the median is 1.8%. Moreover, the market performance during the Spring Festival over the years is obviously more stable than that of the whole year, that is to say, compared with the overall increase of the whole year, the market red envelopes during the Spring Festival have obvious characteristics of low risk and high return.</p><p><b>In contrast, the Shenzhen Component Index and GEM Index performed better than the Shanghai Composite Index, and the small and medium-sized cap indexes such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were better than the heavyweight indexes such as SSE 50 and CSI 300.</b>From the perspective of increase, in the past 12 years, the median cumulative yields of the GEM index in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival were 2.4% and 4.1% respectively, and the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.4% and 0.9%. The median cumulative yield of the National Securities 2000 Index in the past 12 years in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival was 2.0% and 4.4% respectively, while the CSI 300 Index was 1.9% and 0.6%.</p><p><b>Judging from the performance of various industries, the first-level industries in Shenwan generally closed up with a high probability around the Spring Festival, and the nonferrous metals, electronics, computer and other sectors performed relatively well.</b>The non-ferrous metals sector posted a median gain of 3.4% in the first five trading days of the Spring Festival between 2010 and 2021, which was the best performer among all sectors. In the five trading days after the Spring Festival, the median cumulative increase is still the best performance of the nonferrous industry, at 5.2%. In addition, the comprehensive performance of electronics, computer and other industries before and after the holiday is also good.</p><p><b>Judging from the performance of each style index, each major style index also has a high probability of closing up around the Spring Festival, and the style of high P/E is better than that of low P/E, the style of high-priced stocks is better than that of low-priced stocks, and the style of low-profit stocks with losses is better than that of blue-chip stocks.</b>The median accumulated gains of high-P/E stock styles in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival between 2010 and 2021 were 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively, better than the 1.9% and 0.6% of low-P/E stocks. The median accumulated gains of high-priced stock style in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years are 3.3% and 1.6% respectively, which is better than that of low-priced stocks of 1.1% and 2.4%. The median accumulated gains of loss-making stock style in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years are 2.3% and 4.2% respectively, which are better than the 2.5% and 0.6% of blue-chip stocks overall.</p><p>Risk: The macroeconomy is less than expected, overseas markets fluctuate greatly, and historical experience does not represent the future.</p><p>The text is as follows:</p><p>Holding shares or holding currencies, combing the market characteristics before and after the Spring Festival</p><p>The Spring Festival is approaching again. At this time, there is always a discussion in the market about whether to hold money or hold shares for the New Year. Therefore, this paper reviews the performance of A-share market around the Spring Festival in the past ten years for investors' reference.</p><p>1. A-share Spring Festival effect is significant, and the probability of market rise before and after the holiday is high</p><p>A-share Spring Festival effect is significant, and the probability of market rise before and after the holiday is relatively high. We have summarized the performance of the yield before and after the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021. Generally speaking, the performance of the A-share market before and after the Spring Festival is good in most cases, and the rising probability of major broad-based indexes is relatively high. In the past 12 years, in 9 years, the accumulated income of wind All A has risen in 5 trading days before and 5 trading days after the holiday, that is, the probability of increase is as high as 75%. In these 12 years, only 8 years of annual accumulated income of wind All A have been positive. Therefore, from the perspective of probability, there is indeed a significant Spring Festival effect in the performance of A-share market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebb634e1fdcb47287f6f64ad921dd0b\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of ups and downs, the Spring Festival red envelopes in the A-share market in the past decade or so have obvious characteristics of low risk and high return.</b>From the perspective of increase, in the past 12 years, the average cumulative yield of wind All A in the five trading days before the Spring Festival is 1.9%, and the median is 2.6%, and the average cumulative yield in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is 1.4%, and the median is 1.8%. And from the perspective of volatility, the market performance during the Spring Festival over the years is obviously more stable than that of the whole year, that is to say, compared with the overall increase of the whole year, the market red envelopes during the Spring Festival have obvious characteristics of low risk and high return.</p><p><b>In contrast, the Shenzhen Component Index and GEM Index performed better than the Shanghai Composite Index, and the small and medium-sized cap indexes such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were better than the heavyweight indexes such as SSE 50 and CSI 300.</b>From the perspective of increase, in the past 12 years, the median cumulative yields of the GEM index in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival were 2.4% and 4.1% respectively, and the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.4% and 0.9%. The median cumulative yield of the National Securities 2000 Index in the past 12 years in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival was 2.0% and 4.4% respectively, while the CSI 300 Index was 1.9% and 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582cd2589b619255738cf6d2f570069b\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. Nonferrous, electronic and computer performance is relatively dominant</p><p><b>Judging from the performance of various industries, in the past 10 years, the cumulative closing probability of each first-level industry in Shenwan in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival is generally above 50%.</b>Judging from the performance of various industries in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021, in most cases, the first-class industry of Shenwan performed better before and after the holiday, and the number of increases was much higher than the number of declines. Among them, the pharmaceutical and biological industry has all risen in the five trading days before the Spring Festival in the past 12 years, with a probability of rising as high as 100%, and a probability of rising as high as 92% in the five trading days after the Spring Festival. In addition, the probability of rising the electronic and electrical equipment industries in the five trading days before and after the holiday is also above 80%.</p><p><b>Judging from the absolute data of the ups and downs of various industries, the performance of nonferrous metals, electronics, computers and other sectors around the Spring Festival is relatively good, while the performance of the financial sector is relatively low.</b>The non-ferrous metals sector posted a median gain of 3.4% in the first five trading days of the Spring Festival between 2010 and 2021, which was the best performer among all sectors. In the five trading days after the Spring Festival, the median cumulative increase is still the best performance of the nonferrous industry, at 5.2%. In addition, the comprehensive performance of electronics, computer and other industries before and after the holiday is also good, while the financial sector performs relatively poorly in the five trading days before and after the holiday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19bfbbfde65d4117bf61534eeec75506\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503e1fbb70dea37f1e719bee7cceac27\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. High P/E is better than low P/E, high-priced stocks are better than low-priced stocks, and low-profit stocks are better than blue-chip stocks</p><p><b>Judging from the performance of various style indexes, the probability that the main style indexes of the A-share market will close up in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival is generally above 60%.</b>Judging from the performance of various industries in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021, each style index performed better before and after the holiday, and the number of rises was also much higher than the number of declines. Among them, the high P/E style index has a rising probability of more than 80% in the past 12 years in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival.</p><p><b>Judging from the absolute value data of the ups and downs of each style index, around the Spring Festival, the style of high P/E is better than that of low P/E, the style of high-priced stocks is better than that of low-priced stocks, and the style of low-profit stocks is better than that of blue-chip stocks.</b>The median accumulated gains of high-P/E stock styles in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival between 2010 and 2021 were 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively, better than the 1.9% and 0.6% of low-P/E stocks. The median accumulated gains of high-priced stock style in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years are 3.3% and 1.6% respectively, which is better than that of low-priced stocks of 1.1% and 2.4%. The median accumulated gains of loss-making stock style in the five trading days before/after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years are 2.3% and 4.2% respectively, which are better than the 2.5% and 0.6% of blue-chip stocks overall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55520b80f80e1ed42fb553ec3282e634\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5464cc2dab3b0eaba26b6ecc77dc615\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650467\">方正证券</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650467","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155413027","content_text":"春节又将临近，每逢此时，市场上总是兴起一股关于是持币过年还是持股过年的讨论。为此本文统计回顾了2010年至2021年春节前后A股市场的表现情况，供投资者参考。A股春节效应显著，节前节后市场上涨概率大，且过去十多年A股市场春节红包具有显著的低风险高收益的特征。从上涨幅度来看，过去12年wind全A在春节前5个交易日里的累计收益率均值是1.9%，中位数是2.6%，春节后5个交易日里的累计收益率均值是1.4%，中位数是1.8%。并且历年春节期间的市场表现相比全年明显更为稳定，也就是说与全年整体涨幅相比，春节期间的市场红包具有显著的低风险高收益的特征。对比之下，深证成指、创业板指表现好于上证综指，中证500、中证1000等中小盘股指数好于上证50、沪深300等权重股指数。从上涨幅度来看，过去12年创业板指在春节前/后5个交易日里的累计收益率中位数分别为2.4%和4.1%，上证综指为1.4%和0.9%。国证2000指数过去12年在春节前/后5个交易日里的累计收益率中位数分别为2.0%和4.4%，而沪深300指数为1.9%和0.6%。从各行业表现情况来看，申万各一级行业在春节前后普遍大概率收涨，且有色、电子、计算机等板块表现相对较好。有色金属板块在2010年至2021年间春节前5个交易日涨幅中位数达3.4%，在所有板块中表现最佳。春节后5个交易日来看，累计涨幅中位数上依然是有色行业表现最佳，为5.2%。此外电子、计算机等行业节前节后综合表现同样较好。从各风格指数表现情况来看，各主要风格指数在春节前后同样收涨概率较大，且高市盈率风格好于低市盈率、高价股风格好于低价股、亏损微利股风格好于绩优股。高市盈率股风格在2010年至2021年间春节前/后5个交易日累计涨幅中位数分别为2.5%和3.4%，好于低市盈率股的1.9%和0.6%。高价股风格近10多年春节前/后5个交易日累计涨幅中位数分别为3.3%和1.6%，好于低价股的1.1%和2.4%。亏损股风格近10多年春节前/后5个交易日累计涨幅中位数分别为2.3%和4.2%，整体好于绩优股的2.5%和0.6%。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动、历史经验不代表未来。正文如下：持股还是持币，春节前后行情特征梳理春节又将临近，每逢此时，市场上总是兴起一股关于是持币过年还是持股过年的讨论。为此本文统计回顾了过去十多年春节前后A股市场的表现情况，供投资者参考。1. A股春节效应显著，节前节后市场上涨概率大A股春节效应显著，节前节后市场上涨概率均比较高。我们对2010年至2021年历年春节节前和节后5个交易日收益率表现情况进行了汇总，总体来看，A股市场在春节前后的表现多数情况下还是不错的，各大宽基指数上涨概率均比较高。在过去的12年中，有9年wind全A在节前5个交易日和节后5个交易日内累计收益均是上涨的，即上涨概率高达75%，而这12年中wind全A仅有8年的年度累计收益为正，因此从概率的角度看，A股市场表现确实存在着较为显著的春节效应。从涨跌幅来看，过去十多年A股市场春节红包具有显著的低风险高收益的特征。从上涨幅度来看，过去12年wind全A在春节前5个交易日里的累计收益率均值是1.9%，中位数是2.6%，春节后5个交易日里的累计收益率均值是1.4%，中位数是1.8%。并且从波动性来看，历年春节期间的市场表现相比全年明显更为稳定，也就是说与全年整体涨幅相比，春节期间的市场红包具有显著的低风险高收益的特征。对比之下，深证成指、创业板指表现好于上证综指，中证500、中证1000等中小盘股指数好于上证50、沪深300等权重股指数。从上涨幅度来看，过去12年创业板指在春节前/后5个交易日里的累计收益率中位数分别为2.4%和4.1%，上证综指为1.4%和0.9%。国证2000指数过去12年在春节前/后5个交易日里的累计收益率中位数分别为2.0%和4.4%，而沪深300指数为1.9%和0.6%。2. 有色、电子、计算机表现相对占优从各行业表现情况来看，近10多年申万各一级行业在春节前后5个交易日里累计收涨概率普遍在50%之上。从2010年至2021年各行业春节前后5个交易日表现来看，多数情况下，申万一级行业在节前节后的表现较好，上涨次数远高于下跌次数。其中，医药生物行业过去12年内在春节节前5个交易日全部是上涨的，上涨概率高达100%，在春节节后5个交易日上涨概率同样高达92%。此外电子和电气设备两个行业节前节后5个交易日上涨概率也均在80%之上。从各行业涨跌幅的绝对值数据来看，春节前后有色、电子、计算机等板块的表现相对较好，而金融板块表现较为靠后。有色金属板块在2010年至2021年间春节前5个交易日涨幅中位数达3.4%，在所有板块中表现最佳。春节后5个交易日来看，累计涨幅中位数上依然是有色行业表现最佳，为5.2%。此外电子、计算机等行业节前节后综合表现同样较好，而金融板块无论是在节前5个交易日还是节后5个交易日表现均较为靠后。3. 高市盈率好于低市盈率、高价股好于低价股、亏损微利股好于绩优股从各风格指数表现情况来看，A股市场主要风格指数在春节前后5个交易日里累计收涨的概率普遍在60%之上。从2010年至2021年各行业春节前后5个交易日表现来看，各风格指数在节前节后的表现较好，上涨次数同样远高于下跌次数。其中，高市盈率风格指数过去12年内在春节节前/后5个交易日内上涨概率均在80%以上。从各风格指数涨跌幅的绝对值数据来看，春节前后高市盈率风格好于低市盈率、高价股风格好于低价股、亏损微利股风格好于绩优股。高市盈率股风格在2010年至2021年间春节前/后5个交易日累计涨幅中位数分别为2.5%和3.4%，好于低市盈率股的1.9%和0.6%。高价股风格近10多年春节前/后5个交易日累计涨幅中位数分别为3.3%和1.6%，好于低价股的1.1%和2.4%。亏损股风格近10多年春节前/后5个交易日累计涨幅中位数分别为2.3%和4.2%，整体好于绩优股的2.5%和0.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886539728,"gmtCreate":1631603333564,"gmtModify":1676530587348,"author":{"id":"4090730840029950","authorId":"4090730840029950","name":"thomaschai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0ea90d448581d311ba0fca8614ef4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090730840029950","idStr":"4090730840029950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hh","listText":"Hh","text":"Hh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886539728","repostId":"1159330352","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886539875,"gmtCreate":1631603311797,"gmtModify":1676530587333,"author":{"id":"4090730840029950","authorId":"4090730840029950","name":"thomaschai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0ea90d448581d311ba0fca8614ef4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090730840029950","idStr":"4090730840029950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jj","listText":"Jj","text":"Jj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886539875","repostId":"2167535043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2167535043","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631591227,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167535043?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 11:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks also need to switch styles? JPMorgan Chase: Lightening technology, adding positions procyclically!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167535043","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"自从美国经济复苏猛踩刹车以来，资金一度涌入科技股寻求庇护，但摩根大通却认为，是时候减仓科技股了。\n摩根大通Marko Kolanovic等分析师近日表示，市场对经济增长的恐慌有些过度了，Delta变种","content":"<p>Since the U.S. economic recovery slammed on the brakes, money poured into tech stocks for refuge, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>However, it is time to lighten your position in technology stocks.</p><p>Analysts such as Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan Chase recently said that the market's panic about economic growth is somewhat excessive, and the drag of Delta variant virus on the economy may be only temporary. Investors should consider reducing their investment in technology stocks and increasing their holdings in cyclical industries sensitive to the economy such as energy.</p><p>Although the pace of global economic reopening has been delayed as the pandemic resurfaces, JPMorgan data shows that the outbreak caused by the Delta variant may have peaked and is receding in the U.S. and globally:</p><p>We expect reinflationary trading to outperform the broader market as the Delta impact recedes and inflation from supply disruptions and monetary easing persists. JPMorgan believes that bond yields and cyclical assets may have bottomed out early last month, while recommending an increase in Japanese and emerging market stocks.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase's judgment of the economy stands in stark contrast to other investment banks.</p><p>Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>For the third time in less than March, the bank lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for this year. The bank expects that due to the rampant Delta virus, the weakening financial support of the government, and the shift of demand from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also sharply lowered the U.S. GDP forecast in the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast in the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising the GDP forecast for the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's GDP growth rate for the United States this year is expected to be 5.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate for the whole year after Goldman Sachs lowered this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said that the lowering of the expectation was mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth had been released in advance, the government stimulus spending had reduced the promotion of the economy, and the supply chain bottleneck continued to drag down the economy, so consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles had decreased.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks also need to switch styles? 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JPMorgan Chase: Lightening technology, adding positions procyclically!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 11:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since the U.S. economic recovery slammed on the brakes, money poured into tech stocks for refuge, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>However, it is time to lighten your position in technology stocks.</p><p>Analysts such as Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan Chase recently said that the market's panic about economic growth is somewhat excessive, and the drag of Delta variant virus on the economy may be only temporary. Investors should consider reducing their investment in technology stocks and increasing their holdings in cyclical industries sensitive to the economy such as energy.</p><p>Although the pace of global economic reopening has been delayed as the pandemic resurfaces, JPMorgan data shows that the outbreak caused by the Delta variant may have peaked and is receding in the U.S. and globally:</p><p>We expect reinflationary trading to outperform the broader market as the Delta impact recedes and inflation from supply disruptions and monetary easing persists. JPMorgan believes that bond yields and cyclical assets may have bottomed out early last month, while recommending an increase in Japanese and emerging market stocks.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase's judgment of the economy stands in stark contrast to other investment banks.</p><p>Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>For the third time in less than March, the bank lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for this year. The bank expects that due to the rampant Delta virus, the weakening financial support of the government, and the shift of demand from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also sharply lowered the U.S. GDP forecast in the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast in the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising the GDP forecast for the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's GDP growth rate for the United States this year is expected to be 5.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate for the whole year after Goldman Sachs lowered this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said that the lowering of the expectation was mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth had been released in advance, the government stimulus spending had reduced the promotion of the economy, and the supply chain bottleneck continued to drag down the economy, so consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles had decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3640337\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecccb954c9a03cd26d576ebec5c96d6","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3640337","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167535043","content_text":"自从美国经济复苏猛踩刹车以来，资金一度涌入科技股寻求庇护，但摩根大通却认为，是时候减仓科技股了。\n摩根大通Marko Kolanovic等分析师近日表示，市场对经济增长的恐慌有些过度了，Delta变种病毒对经济的拖累可能只是暂时的，投资者应考虑减少对科技股的投资，同时增持能源等对经济敏感的周期性行业。\n尽管随着疫情复燃，全球经济重新开放的步伐被推迟了，但摩根大通的数据显示，由Delta变种病毒导致的疫情可能已经达到顶峰，在美国和全球范围内正在消退：\n\n 随着Delta影响消退，且由供应中断和货币宽松导致的通胀持续，我们预计再通胀交易表现将优于大盘。\n\n摩根大通认为，债券收益率和周期性资产可能已经在上月初触底，同时建议增持日本和新兴市场股票。\n摩根大通对经济的判断与其他投行形成鲜明对比。\n本月初，高盛在不到三月里，第三次下调今年美国GDP预期，该行预计由于新冠肺炎变种病毒德尔塔（Delta）病毒肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻。\n摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}