Profile - To The Moon

Kengs

Posts · 16Posts · 16
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- KengsKengs
  ·08-25
  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Who trades stocks to break even? That's a weird question 😂
  275 1
  Like
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·06-28
  Happy 10th anniversary!
  215 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·06-21
  I think it’s a useful reference but not a magic number. You could continue to work and explore interests, hence getting constant stream of active income. You could also need large expenses.
  393 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·06-15
  Probably among the top trading platforms around the region
  294 Comment
  1
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·04-03
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ bulls have previously backed the company and Elon Musk by saying how it is a tech company not simply a car company. However, after years of overpromising and under delivering, retail investors should now see Tesla for what it truly is--an EV car company. Its true valuation is probably way lower. I think it's a good stock to trade, not to invest in.
  690 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·03-05
  $Apple(AAPL)$ Probably another 2 earnings announcements NVDA will surpass AAPL. After all, AAAPL earnings and profits falling, plus write off investment in developing an Apple car. AI is raging on and chips will continue to be in demand.
  750 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·2022-11-24
  Ok
  Tesla Stock Forecast For 2023: What To Watch For
  SummaryTesla is contesting new lows not seen in two years as it grapples with a myriad of headwinds
  Tesla Stock Forecast For 2023: What To Watch For
  567 1
  4
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·2022-09-13
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Overvalued, but very good for trading purposes.
  595 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·2022-09-12
  $Alibaba(BABA)$Slowly and steadily.
  541 Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report
- KengsKengs
  ·2022-08-11
  Ok
  3 Reasons to Buy Apple Stock Now
  The tech company hasn't said its last word just yet.
  3 Reasons to Buy Apple Stock Now
  876 Comment
  1
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"4095309637447610","uuid":"4095309637447610","gmtCreate":1632230733427,"gmtModify":1657796565039,"name":"Kengs","pinyin":"kengs","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":4,"headSize":8,"tweetSize":16,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":2,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.18","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.03","exceedPercentage":"93.20%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.78%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.03","exceedPercentage":"93.94%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":1,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":342155277848784,"gmtCreate":1724555849778,"gmtModify":1724555853607,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Who trades stocks to break even? That's a weird question 😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> Who trades stocks to break even? That's a weird question 😂","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Who trades stocks to break even? That's a weird question 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342155277848784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107015407846850","authorId":"4107015407846850","name":"FattAgain69","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4e3d511c15de9227ee9ebca3021f903","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4107015407846850","authorIdStr":"4107015407846850"},"content":"It is not that they are trading to break even, it might be that they are unable to close a trade to take a loss. Since the market is generally on the rise, they might think the stock that they bought will eventually rise back to the buy price where they can finally close without taking a loss. What they are missing out is the opportunity cost of investing in another trade.","text":"It is not that they are trading to break even, it might be that they are unable to close a trade to take a loss. Since the market is generally on the rise, they might think the stock that they bought will eventually rise back to the buy price where they can finally close without taking a loss. What they are missing out is the opportunity cost of investing in another trade.","html":"It is not that they are trading to break even, it might be that they are unable to close a trade to take a loss. Since the market is generally on the rise, they might think the stock that they bought will eventually rise back to the buy price where they can finally close without taking a loss. What they are missing out is the opportunity cost of investing in another trade."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321780043583536,"gmtCreate":1719590048252,"gmtModify":1719590053684,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy 10th anniversary!","listText":"Happy 10th anniversary!","text":"Happy 10th anniversary!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321780043583536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319140079673416,"gmtCreate":1718928457502,"gmtModify":1718928461300,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think it’s a useful reference but not a magic number. You could continue to work and explore interests, hence getting constant stream of active income. You could also need large expenses.","listText":"I think it’s a useful reference but not a magic number. You could continue to work and explore interests, hence getting constant stream of active income. You could also need large expenses.","text":"I think it’s a useful reference but not a magic number. You could continue to work and explore interests, hence getting constant stream of active income. You could also need large expenses.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319140079673416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317035701231672,"gmtCreate":1718440335873,"gmtModify":1718440341359,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Probably among the top trading platforms around the region","listText":"Probably among the top trading platforms around the region","text":"Probably among the top trading platforms around the region","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317035701231672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":291309047918896,"gmtCreate":1712146386740,"gmtModify":1712146390771,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> bulls have previously backed the company and Elon Musk by saying how it is a tech company not simply a car company. However, after years of overpromising and under delivering, retail investors should now see Tesla for what it truly is--an EV car company. Its true valuation is probably way lower. I think it's a good stock to trade, not to invest in.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> bulls have previously backed the company and Elon Musk by saying how it is a tech company not simply a car company. However, after years of overpromising and under delivering, retail investors should now see Tesla for what it truly is--an EV car company. Its true valuation is probably way lower. I think it's a good stock to trade, not to invest in.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ bulls have previously backed the company and Elon Musk by saying how it is a tech company not simply a car company. However, after years of overpromising and under delivering, retail investors should now see Tesla for what it truly is--an EV car company. Its true valuation is probably way lower. I think it's a good stock to trade, not to invest in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/291309047918896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":281055509229816,"gmtCreate":1709641712821,"gmtModify":1709641717294,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> Probably another 2 earnings announcements NVDA will surpass AAPL. After all, AAAPL earnings and profits falling, plus write off investment in developing an Apple car. AI is raging on and chips will continue to be in demand.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> Probably another 2 earnings announcements NVDA will surpass AAPL. After all, AAAPL earnings and profits falling, plus write off investment in developing an Apple car. AI is raging on and chips will continue to be in demand.","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Probably another 2 earnings announcements NVDA will surpass AAPL. After all, AAAPL earnings and profits falling, plus write off investment in developing an Apple car. AI is raging on and chips will continue to be in demand.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/281055509229816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968670945,"gmtCreate":1669220766387,"gmtModify":1676538169794,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968670945","repostId":"2285783275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285783275","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669131959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285783275?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 23:45","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Forecast For 2023: What To Watch For","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285783275","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla is contesting new lows not seen in two years as it grapples with a myriad of headwinds ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla is contesting new lows not seen in two years as it grapples with a myriad of headwinds spanning macroeconomic uncertainties to internal operating inefficiencies.</li><li>Investors&#39; confidence is waning, as many await further clues on where the global economic outlook is headed and how that would impact Tesla&#39;s near-term prospects.</li><li>2023 could either be a headache for existing investors or opportunity for newcomers, as mounting downside risks potentially drag the stock closer to our $150 bear-case PT over coming months.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d876eae388ad46305f64a85bc8972ef4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Justin Sullivan</span></p><p>Despite being the industry leader in electric vehicle (“EV”) sales, Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term growth outlook – both from a fundamental and valuation perspective – is becoming increasingly uncertain. Blighted by a wide range of challenges spanning macroeconomic headwinds, industry-specific roadblocks, and other Tesla-specific skepticism among investors (e.g., sharedilution risks and lack of management focus with CEO Elon Musk’s attention spreading thin across his many ventures), the stock has been subject of turbulence in recent weeks, contesting new 52-week lows not seen since November 2020.</p><p>The Fed’s monetary tightening trajectory will be at the top of the watchlist for factors impacting Tesla&#39;s stock over the next 12 months, as it will dictate demand across the company’s key markets – namely, the U.S. and China. How the broader macroeconomic outlook unfolds will also impact Tesla’s margins, as well as investors’ sentiment – a key determinant for how they will respond to company-specific headlines (i.e., whether investors will adopt a “buy-the-dip” or “shun the stock” mentality on Tesla during the risk-off market climate).</p><p>While the immediate challenges facing Tesla are likely to push it closer towards our bear case PT of $150, said levels would make a compelling entry opportunity given the EV titan’s medium- to longer-term competitive strengths as previously discussed. Although Tesla will inevitably face accelerated erosion of its market share, and inadvertently, eradication of its first-mover advantage that had helped it build its industry-leading auto margins over coming years as upstarts and legacy automakers alike join in on the electrification wave, the company’s prudent procurement of critical raw material supplies makes a longer-term competitive advantage to hedge against probable risks of another industry-upending component constraint like the auto semiconductor shortage observed over the past year that has roiled auto production volumes, sales growth and profitability.</p><h2>Fed Tightening’s Impact on Valuations</h2><p>The Fed’s trajectory on monetary tightening to quell the biggest pace of price increases in four decades continues to add uncertainty on when the ongoing valuation correction that has roiled markets this year will cease. The recent release of mixed key economic data driving the Fed’s policy outlook has only blurred the picture further. Slower-than-expected CPI and PPI figures in October were positive signs that suggest the peak of inflation is potentially behind us, while the biggest retail sales growth in eight months shows the economy is still stronger than what the Fed would like to see before pivoting from its hawkish policy stance.</p><p>With inflation still far from the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers are likely to stick with plans for “further rate hikes into restrictive territory until there is structural evidence that demand has slowed and inflation is under control”. Even the most dovish commentary from policymakers as of late points to a higher terminal rate than the 4.25% to 4.5% they had previously anticipated:</p><blockquote>‘If the economy proceeds as I expect, I believe that 75 to 100 basis points of additional tightening will be warranted,’ [Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic] said in prepared remarks for a speech in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, on Saturday. ‘It’s clear that more is needed, and I believe this level of the policy rate will be sufficient to rein in inflation over a reasonable time horizon.’ Bostic’s plan would shift away from 75 basis-point hikes and continue to raise rates to as much as 4.75%-5% over the next several meetings, which he described as a “moderately restrictive landing rate” where the Fed would go on hold for an extended period to continue to put downward pressure on prices.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: Bloomberg</blockquote><p>In addition to tighter financial conditions ahead, continued rate hikes will also increase the cost of growth and compress investment valuation multiples further, leading to more market turbulence over coming months. From a valuation theory standpoint, continued rate hikes – or essentially, cost of capital – would diminish a firm’s “steady-state value” under conditions when “NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value”, as well as a company’s “future value creation” that represents the incremental value that investments earn relative to the cost of capital. As discussed in our recent coverage on Tesla, the company continues to benefit from a lofty premium attributed to the “future value creation” portion of its valuation that may not be sustainable for much longer ahead of a rapidly deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop. Meanwhile, its steady-state firm value is likely to see further erosion as well as costs of capital increase with rising interest rates. Specifically, the steady-state firm value can also be denoted by a forward P/E ratio equivalent to 1/firm cost of equity:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source: Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>This would continue to bode unfavourably for equities across the board, particularly those like Tesla that continue to trade at lofty premiums compared to peers with a similar growth profile and capital structure, as the Fed’s aggressive rate hike trajectory persists.</p><p>The Fed’s monetary tightening trajectory would also dictate near-term demand for EVs, which Tesla’s performance remains synonymous for. EV demand this year has remained relatively resilient compared to the broader passenger vehicle market, buoyed by the segment’s supply-constrained nature still, as well as stronger purchasing power among its more affluent consumer base (the average EV MSRP this year has topped $60,000, pricing out close to half of American households). But despite the relative resilience demonstrated by EV demand, growing uncertainties over the global macroeconomic outlook is likely to derail the segment’s adoption trajectory in coming months.</p><p>The combination of rising interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures are starting to chip away at American household savings, which has fallen from an average of 3.5% in the second quarter to 3.1% in the third quarter. An increasing volume of the population is also turning to credit card spending, with related short-term debt approaching $900+ billion in September. Meanwhile, buying behaviour is starting tofavournecessities and services over big-ticket products like new vehicles. This points to a tough demand environment over coming months for Tesla, as its core market in the U.S. reels from the increasingly prominent aftermath of deteriorating consumer sentiment and purchasing power amid tightening financial conditions.</p><h2>China’s Policy Outlook</h2><p>Turning to China – another key market for Tesla – EVs remain a bright spot. The Asian nation now accounts for almost 60% of the vehicle segment’s sales worldwide. Meanwhile, local EV penetration has topped 30% based on the latest passenger vehicle sales data from October.</p><p>Yet, the country’s strict adherence to an extended and stringent COVID Zero policy, alongside an ongoing slump in its GDP-driving property sector is upending the Chinese economy, which could make a near-term headwind for Tesla:</p><blockquote>Specifically, China&#39;s retail sales continued to decelerate, with September exhibiting a mere 2.5% y/y growth, falling short of consensus expectations for 3.3% y/y growth and marking the slowest expansion in four months. Specifically, auto sales are expected to slow, with even the more resilient EV sector forecast to report a deceleration in October sales. The previous anticipation for seasonality-driven demand in the fourth quarter, and pull-forward sales as a result of extended regional tax breaks on eligible EV purchases and thelooming endto the nation-wide EV purchase subsidy by year-end are likely further away from realization now as well given the increasingly bleak macroeconomic outlook.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:  “Is NIO Stock A Buy After Q3&#39;22 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On COVID Zero”</blockquote><p>This is further corroborated by the recent decline in Tesla’s shipments from Giga Shanghai to the local market, with recent price cuts to its vehicles sold in China by as much as 9% following Musk’s concerns over a potential “recession of sorts” in the region pointing to a more marked slowdown in near-term demand. Sentiment remains fragile despite the recent injection of optimism following Beijing’s decision to ease COVID restrictions and property sector policies in hopes of shoring up growth. Ensuing expectations for a potential recovery has already been eclipsed by fears that authorities might reverse recent decisions to ease COVID Zero restrictions after the country reported its first COVID-deaths in months over the past weekend. Expectations for China’s 2022 GDP growth has only become increasingly muted compared to the central government’s earlier target of about 5.5%.</p><p>In addition to demand risks, the slowing Chinese market will also weigh on Tesla’s industry-leading auto profit margins. Giga Shanghai is currently Tesla’s most efficient manufacturing facility and produces the highest margin vehicles. With less of these Shanghai-made units sold to the local Chinese market, which accounted for almost a quarter of Tesla’s 3Q22 sales, and at a lower price, the company’s auto gross margins will likely see continued pressure over coming quarters. Having an increasing volume of Shanghai-produced vehicles exported to Europe also suggests risks of stalled capacity in the newly expanded facility in the near-term, exposing Tesla to additional costs of underutilization. While Musk has repeatedly proclaimed that Tesla has a supply problem and not a demand problem, said phenomenon could potentially be unraveling as the global economy faces probable risks of recession over the next 12 months.</p><h2>Tesla’s Internal Headache</h2><p><b>Europe Headwinds-</b>Elevated ramp-up costs over the near-term pertaining to Tesla’s Berlin and Texas facilities is another near-term consideration that could compound its profit risks. Specifically in Europe, the energy crisis linked to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war not only risks higher production costs in the region for Tesla, but also another core region with slowing demand as the bloc braces for a recession with further economic contraction through early 2023. This, again, compounds concerns for underutilization of capacity in the near-term for Tesla – Europe’s making its own Tesla vehicles in Berlin, while excess units from Shanghai are also being shipped to the region that is now facing an impending slowdown. The near-term pains in Europe are further corroborated by the region’s muted auto sales trends, which remain “far below what was considered normal operating volume pre-pandemic…[with] manufacturers starting to see signs consumers are taking a pause”.</p><p><b>Compressing Margins-</b>Overall, we consider profitability a major near-term overhang for Tesla that could be unfavourable for the stock under the current market climate where investors continue to favour bottom-line expansion over growth. Particularly, Tesla’s lofty valuation premium still reflects the market’s continued optimism over the sustainability of its industry-leading auto margins, which is becoming increasingly vulnerable to a wipe-out in the near-term given protracted inflationary pressures, growing underutilization risks, and slowing demand.</p><p><b>Management Uncertainties-</b>There is also rising discontent among Tesla investors over the dilution of Musk’s attention across his many ventures – the most recent being the high-profile, dramatic acquisition of Twitter. Musk has long been a centrepiece to Tesla’s rise to the top among retail investors. His presence symbolizes both the good and bad – good being he remains the face of pioneering mass market EV adoption with many still linking Tesla’s success to Musk’s direction at the helm; and bad being Musk’s association as a “newsmaker” with anything and everything he says sometimes injecting unnecessary volatility to Tesla&#39;s stock, often taking investors on a wild ride and stirring regulatory scrutiny. While recent reports that Musk has found a successor to potentially takeover his role in managing Tesla’s day-to-day duties in a few years is a positive development, questions over whether he can maintain the undivided attention the EV company needs amid mounting macro and industry headwinds in the operating backdrop remains a key focus area for investors and potential drag on the stock in the near-term.</p><p><b>Share Sale Pressure-</b>There is also a growing risk of continued share sales in mass volumes by Musk to appease his rolling list of reasons, spanning the need for liquidity to settle his personal tax bills to funding his many ventures. Time and again during the past year’s bear market when investors needed him most, Musk has left his promise to “be the last one to sell Tesla” on the back burner. The richest man on the planet has cashed in $36 billion worth of his Tesla stake since last November from selling shares to settle his tax bill on stock options that needed to be exercised at the time, and more recently, 19.5 million shares worth $3.95 billion earlier in the month to fund his Twitter buy-out. His stake in Tesla has fallen from 23% (including stock options) to 14% over the same period.</p><p>Recognizing investors’ growing aversion, Musk has hinted at a potential share buyback program in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion beginning next year, which we view as reasonable considering the company’s robust cash flows generated from operations. However, it remains too soon to tell if said relief is coming soon, given Musk’s track record of overpromises and “overly optimistic timelines”, and a “Board review and approval” still up in the air. The skepticism is further corroborated by our back-of-the-napkin comparison to Apple (AAPL) – a similarly resilient peer to Tesla in terms of market valuation performance this year – which launched its inaugural share buyback program valued at $10 billion in March 2012 when it achieved an EBITDA margin of more than 30%, compared with Tesla’s EBITDA margin in the mid-20% range today.</p><h2>Risks to the Near-Term Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite mounting downside risks facing Tesla’s near-term outlook, the company has had a reputation for its mixed bag of tools to salvage sentiment. As discussed in our previous coverage, Tesla’s initial delivery of the Semi trucks powered by the 4680 cells later this year suggests that a lower price mass market product might be on the way.</p><p>Although Musk had previously shut down speculation on Tesla’s development of a $25,000 compact car to better penetrate the mass market and overcome growing competition within the increasingly saturated EV landscape, the card is still on the table for the company to reconfirm the project. This could be a major catalyst for lifting investors’ confidence and helping Tesla’s still-lofty valuation premium weather through the looming macro storm. The lower price mass market product will not only help Tesla better compete against cheaper rival offerings, but also “attract consumer dollars amid an inflationary environment, and accelerate its longer-term plans to sell 20 million vehicles per year”, eliminating the near-term underutilization risks discussed in the foregoing analysis. The 4680 battery cells also boast better economics, which could further jack up its auto margins over the longer-term as production ramps up, and overshadow near-term concerns on profitability.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>Tesla’s lofty valuation premium amid a volatile market climate, paired with mounting near-term uncertainties over the global macroeconomic backdrop, as well as both industry- and company-specific challenges make an overall bad mix that points to elevated downside risks over coming months for the stock. The EV maker’s 3Q22 performance, alongside recent deterioration in auto demand observed across its core markets (i.e., U.S., Europe and China) is putting our bear case PT of $150 for the stock a likely outcome in 2023. This would represent about 26x Tesla’s estimated earnings, making it a reasonable entry opportunity for longer-term upside potential buoyed by the company’s robust balance sheet, sustained growth trajectory stemming from a favourable secular demand environment for EVs, as well as its supply advantage to satisfy said demand.</p><p><i>This article is written by Livy Investment Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast For 2023: What To Watch For</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Forecast For 2023: What To Watch For\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-22 23:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559645-tesla-stock-forecast-for-2023-what-to-watch-for><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is contesting new lows not seen in two years as it grapples with a myriad of headwinds spanning macroeconomic uncertainties to internal operating inefficiencies.Investors' confidence is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559645-tesla-stock-forecast-for-2023-what-to-watch-for\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559645-tesla-stock-forecast-for-2023-what-to-watch-for","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285783275","content_text":"SummaryTesla is contesting new lows not seen in two years as it grapples with a myriad of headwinds spanning macroeconomic uncertainties to internal operating inefficiencies.Investors' confidence is waning, as many await further clues on where the global economic outlook is headed and how that would impact Tesla's near-term prospects.2023 could either be a headache for existing investors or opportunity for newcomers, as mounting downside risks potentially drag the stock closer to our $150 bear-case PT over coming months.Justin SullivanDespite being the industry leader in electric vehicle (“EV”) sales, Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term growth outlook – both from a fundamental and valuation perspective – is becoming increasingly uncertain. Blighted by a wide range of challenges spanning macroeconomic headwinds, industry-specific roadblocks, and other Tesla-specific skepticism among investors (e.g., sharedilution risks and lack of management focus with CEO Elon Musk’s attention spreading thin across his many ventures), the stock has been subject of turbulence in recent weeks, contesting new 52-week lows not seen since November 2020.The Fed’s monetary tightening trajectory will be at the top of the watchlist for factors impacting Tesla's stock over the next 12 months, as it will dictate demand across the company’s key markets – namely, the U.S. and China. How the broader macroeconomic outlook unfolds will also impact Tesla’s margins, as well as investors’ sentiment – a key determinant for how they will respond to company-specific headlines (i.e., whether investors will adopt a “buy-the-dip” or “shun the stock” mentality on Tesla during the risk-off market climate).While the immediate challenges facing Tesla are likely to push it closer towards our bear case PT of $150, said levels would make a compelling entry opportunity given the EV titan’s medium- to longer-term competitive strengths as previously discussed. Although Tesla will inevitably face accelerated erosion of its market share, and inadvertently, eradication of its first-mover advantage that had helped it build its industry-leading auto margins over coming years as upstarts and legacy automakers alike join in on the electrification wave, the company’s prudent procurement of critical raw material supplies makes a longer-term competitive advantage to hedge against probable risks of another industry-upending component constraint like the auto semiconductor shortage observed over the past year that has roiled auto production volumes, sales growth and profitability.Fed Tightening’s Impact on ValuationsThe Fed’s trajectory on monetary tightening to quell the biggest pace of price increases in four decades continues to add uncertainty on when the ongoing valuation correction that has roiled markets this year will cease. The recent release of mixed key economic data driving the Fed’s policy outlook has only blurred the picture further. Slower-than-expected CPI and PPI figures in October were positive signs that suggest the peak of inflation is potentially behind us, while the biggest retail sales growth in eight months shows the economy is still stronger than what the Fed would like to see before pivoting from its hawkish policy stance.With inflation still far from the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers are likely to stick with plans for “further rate hikes into restrictive territory until there is structural evidence that demand has slowed and inflation is under control”. Even the most dovish commentary from policymakers as of late points to a higher terminal rate than the 4.25% to 4.5% they had previously anticipated:‘If the economy proceeds as I expect, I believe that 75 to 100 basis points of additional tightening will be warranted,’ [Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic] said in prepared remarks for a speech in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, on Saturday. ‘It’s clear that more is needed, and I believe this level of the policy rate will be sufficient to rein in inflation over a reasonable time horizon.’ Bostic’s plan would shift away from 75 basis-point hikes and continue to raise rates to as much as 4.75%-5% over the next several meetings, which he described as a “moderately restrictive landing rate” where the Fed would go on hold for an extended period to continue to put downward pressure on prices.Source: BloombergIn addition to tighter financial conditions ahead, continued rate hikes will also increase the cost of growth and compress investment valuation multiples further, leading to more market turbulence over coming months. From a valuation theory standpoint, continued rate hikes – or essentially, cost of capital – would diminish a firm’s “steady-state value” under conditions when “NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value”, as well as a company’s “future value creation” that represents the incremental value that investments earn relative to the cost of capital. As discussed in our recent coverage on Tesla, the company continues to benefit from a lofty premium attributed to the “future value creation” portion of its valuation that may not be sustainable for much longer ahead of a rapidly deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop. Meanwhile, its steady-state firm value is likely to see further erosion as well as costs of capital increase with rising interest rates. Specifically, the steady-state firm value can also be denoted by a forward P/E ratio equivalent to 1/firm cost of equity:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source: Credit SuisseThis would continue to bode unfavourably for equities across the board, particularly those like Tesla that continue to trade at lofty premiums compared to peers with a similar growth profile and capital structure, as the Fed’s aggressive rate hike trajectory persists.The Fed’s monetary tightening trajectory would also dictate near-term demand for EVs, which Tesla’s performance remains synonymous for. EV demand this year has remained relatively resilient compared to the broader passenger vehicle market, buoyed by the segment’s supply-constrained nature still, as well as stronger purchasing power among its more affluent consumer base (the average EV MSRP this year has topped $60,000, pricing out close to half of American households). But despite the relative resilience demonstrated by EV demand, growing uncertainties over the global macroeconomic outlook is likely to derail the segment’s adoption trajectory in coming months.The combination of rising interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures are starting to chip away at American household savings, which has fallen from an average of 3.5% in the second quarter to 3.1% in the third quarter. An increasing volume of the population is also turning to credit card spending, with related short-term debt approaching $900+ billion in September. Meanwhile, buying behaviour is starting tofavournecessities and services over big-ticket products like new vehicles. This points to a tough demand environment over coming months for Tesla, as its core market in the U.S. reels from the increasingly prominent aftermath of deteriorating consumer sentiment and purchasing power amid tightening financial conditions.China’s Policy OutlookTurning to China – another key market for Tesla – EVs remain a bright spot. The Asian nation now accounts for almost 60% of the vehicle segment’s sales worldwide. Meanwhile, local EV penetration has topped 30% based on the latest passenger vehicle sales data from October.Yet, the country’s strict adherence to an extended and stringent COVID Zero policy, alongside an ongoing slump in its GDP-driving property sector is upending the Chinese economy, which could make a near-term headwind for Tesla:Specifically, China's retail sales continued to decelerate, with September exhibiting a mere 2.5% y/y growth, falling short of consensus expectations for 3.3% y/y growth and marking the slowest expansion in four months. Specifically, auto sales are expected to slow, with even the more resilient EV sector forecast to report a deceleration in October sales. The previous anticipation for seasonality-driven demand in the fourth quarter, and pull-forward sales as a result of extended regional tax breaks on eligible EV purchases and thelooming endto the nation-wide EV purchase subsidy by year-end are likely further away from realization now as well given the increasingly bleak macroeconomic outlook.Source:  “Is NIO Stock A Buy After Q3'22 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On COVID Zero”This is further corroborated by the recent decline in Tesla’s shipments from Giga Shanghai to the local market, with recent price cuts to its vehicles sold in China by as much as 9% following Musk’s concerns over a potential “recession of sorts” in the region pointing to a more marked slowdown in near-term demand. Sentiment remains fragile despite the recent injection of optimism following Beijing’s decision to ease COVID restrictions and property sector policies in hopes of shoring up growth. Ensuing expectations for a potential recovery has already been eclipsed by fears that authorities might reverse recent decisions to ease COVID Zero restrictions after the country reported its first COVID-deaths in months over the past weekend. Expectations for China’s 2022 GDP growth has only become increasingly muted compared to the central government’s earlier target of about 5.5%.In addition to demand risks, the slowing Chinese market will also weigh on Tesla’s industry-leading auto profit margins. Giga Shanghai is currently Tesla’s most efficient manufacturing facility and produces the highest margin vehicles. With less of these Shanghai-made units sold to the local Chinese market, which accounted for almost a quarter of Tesla’s 3Q22 sales, and at a lower price, the company’s auto gross margins will likely see continued pressure over coming quarters. Having an increasing volume of Shanghai-produced vehicles exported to Europe also suggests risks of stalled capacity in the newly expanded facility in the near-term, exposing Tesla to additional costs of underutilization. While Musk has repeatedly proclaimed that Tesla has a supply problem and not a demand problem, said phenomenon could potentially be unraveling as the global economy faces probable risks of recession over the next 12 months.Tesla’s Internal HeadacheEurope Headwinds-Elevated ramp-up costs over the near-term pertaining to Tesla’s Berlin and Texas facilities is another near-term consideration that could compound its profit risks. Specifically in Europe, the energy crisis linked to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war not only risks higher production costs in the region for Tesla, but also another core region with slowing demand as the bloc braces for a recession with further economic contraction through early 2023. This, again, compounds concerns for underutilization of capacity in the near-term for Tesla – Europe’s making its own Tesla vehicles in Berlin, while excess units from Shanghai are also being shipped to the region that is now facing an impending slowdown. The near-term pains in Europe are further corroborated by the region’s muted auto sales trends, which remain “far below what was considered normal operating volume pre-pandemic…[with] manufacturers starting to see signs consumers are taking a pause”.Compressing Margins-Overall, we consider profitability a major near-term overhang for Tesla that could be unfavourable for the stock under the current market climate where investors continue to favour bottom-line expansion over growth. Particularly, Tesla’s lofty valuation premium still reflects the market’s continued optimism over the sustainability of its industry-leading auto margins, which is becoming increasingly vulnerable to a wipe-out in the near-term given protracted inflationary pressures, growing underutilization risks, and slowing demand.Management Uncertainties-There is also rising discontent among Tesla investors over the dilution of Musk’s attention across his many ventures – the most recent being the high-profile, dramatic acquisition of Twitter. Musk has long been a centrepiece to Tesla’s rise to the top among retail investors. His presence symbolizes both the good and bad – good being he remains the face of pioneering mass market EV adoption with many still linking Tesla’s success to Musk’s direction at the helm; and bad being Musk’s association as a “newsmaker” with anything and everything he says sometimes injecting unnecessary volatility to Tesla's stock, often taking investors on a wild ride and stirring regulatory scrutiny. While recent reports that Musk has found a successor to potentially takeover his role in managing Tesla’s day-to-day duties in a few years is a positive development, questions over whether he can maintain the undivided attention the EV company needs amid mounting macro and industry headwinds in the operating backdrop remains a key focus area for investors and potential drag on the stock in the near-term.Share Sale Pressure-There is also a growing risk of continued share sales in mass volumes by Musk to appease his rolling list of reasons, spanning the need for liquidity to settle his personal tax bills to funding his many ventures. Time and again during the past year’s bear market when investors needed him most, Musk has left his promise to “be the last one to sell Tesla” on the back burner. The richest man on the planet has cashed in $36 billion worth of his Tesla stake since last November from selling shares to settle his tax bill on stock options that needed to be exercised at the time, and more recently, 19.5 million shares worth $3.95 billion earlier in the month to fund his Twitter buy-out. His stake in Tesla has fallen from 23% (including stock options) to 14% over the same period.Recognizing investors’ growing aversion, Musk has hinted at a potential share buyback program in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion beginning next year, which we view as reasonable considering the company’s robust cash flows generated from operations. However, it remains too soon to tell if said relief is coming soon, given Musk’s track record of overpromises and “overly optimistic timelines”, and a “Board review and approval” still up in the air. The skepticism is further corroborated by our back-of-the-napkin comparison to Apple (AAPL) – a similarly resilient peer to Tesla in terms of market valuation performance this year – which launched its inaugural share buyback program valued at $10 billion in March 2012 when it achieved an EBITDA margin of more than 30%, compared with Tesla’s EBITDA margin in the mid-20% range today.Risks to the Near-Term Bearish ThesisDespite mounting downside risks facing Tesla’s near-term outlook, the company has had a reputation for its mixed bag of tools to salvage sentiment. As discussed in our previous coverage, Tesla’s initial delivery of the Semi trucks powered by the 4680 cells later this year suggests that a lower price mass market product might be on the way.Although Musk had previously shut down speculation on Tesla’s development of a $25,000 compact car to better penetrate the mass market and overcome growing competition within the increasingly saturated EV landscape, the card is still on the table for the company to reconfirm the project. This could be a major catalyst for lifting investors’ confidence and helping Tesla’s still-lofty valuation premium weather through the looming macro storm. The lower price mass market product will not only help Tesla better compete against cheaper rival offerings, but also “attract consumer dollars amid an inflationary environment, and accelerate its longer-term plans to sell 20 million vehicles per year”, eliminating the near-term underutilization risks discussed in the foregoing analysis. The 4680 battery cells also boast better economics, which could further jack up its auto margins over the longer-term as production ramps up, and overshadow near-term concerns on profitability.Final ThoughtsTesla’s lofty valuation premium amid a volatile market climate, paired with mounting near-term uncertainties over the global macroeconomic backdrop, as well as both industry- and company-specific challenges make an overall bad mix that points to elevated downside risks over coming months for the stock. The EV maker’s 3Q22 performance, alongside recent deterioration in auto demand observed across its core markets (i.e., U.S., Europe and China) is putting our bear case PT of $150 for the stock a likely outcome in 2023. This would represent about 26x Tesla’s estimated earnings, making it a reasonable entry opportunity for longer-term upside potential buoyed by the company’s robust balance sheet, sustained growth trajectory stemming from a favourable secular demand environment for EVs, as well as its supply advantage to satisfy said demand.This article is written by Livy Investment Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935836599,"gmtCreate":1663062705211,"gmtModify":1676537194376,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Overvalued, but very good for trading purposes.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Overvalued, but very good for trading purposes.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Overvalued, but very good for trading purposes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935836599","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932503189,"gmtCreate":1662950874841,"gmtModify":1676537170053,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Slowly and steadily.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Slowly and steadily.&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Slowly and steadily.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932503189","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907214784,"gmtCreate":1660196205950,"gmtModify":1703479006015,"author":{"id":"4095309637447610","authorId":"4095309637447610","name":"Kengs","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b3244be4d0bec11fce01cd6f8e872e2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095309637447610","authorIdStr":"4095309637447610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907214784","repostId":"2258291275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2258291275","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1660180913,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2258291275?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-11 09:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons to Buy Apple Stock Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2258291275","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The tech company hasn't said its last word just yet.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Is there more fuel left in <b>Apple</b>&#39;s growth engine? Because the company has already delivered market-beating returns for years and is near the top of the exclusive group of trillion-dollar companies, some investors are wondering if it&#39;s time to cash in. Others still see signs that Apple isn&#39;t done growing just yet.</p><p>The Silicon Valley giant produced more evidence of its still-solid prospects when it released its latest quarterly update late last month. In it were clues that there are at least three reasons to think Apple isn&#39;t done growing yet and there is still time to get in on outsized returns. Let&#39;s take a look at those reasons.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d707ca46aab73e16e1d024655ca86c8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>AAPL data by YCharts</span></p><h2>1. Despite economic headwinds, Apple is managing to do well</h2><p>Fears of a coming (or already present) recession are not unfounded, and inflation is eroding wage gains and savings. In a macroeconomic environment such as this, consumers tend to hold off spending on things they may want but don&#39;t need. That could easily describe many of Apple&#39;s products. A new smartphone is nice, as is a sleek pair of Bluetooth headphones. In reality, no one <i>needs</i> brand new versions of those things that often sell for well-above-average prices.</p><p>This would suggest Apple is going to have a rough go of it. And while these challenging headwinds have certainly impacted its earnings, the tech giant is managing surprisingly well. In its latest quarterly update (the third quarter of its fiscal year 2022, ending on June 25), Apple&#39;s net sales were up by about 2% year over year to $83 billion.</p><p>This modest top-line growth amid the issues Apple is battling is commendable. Apple&#39;s earnings per share did decrease to $1.20, down from the $1.30 reported during the year-ago period. Rising costs and expenses, partly due to inflation, may have played a role here. Still, overall, Apple&#39;s results were pretty solid. The company owed much of this success to its signature device, the iPhone.</p><h2>2. Long live the iPhone</h2><p>Apple&#39;s iPhone has been its major source of revenue for over a decade now. It arguably no longer generates the buzz it once did; the tech industry used to stop everything and listen every time Apple would announce a new version of its prized device. But demand for the iPhone remains strong. During Apple&#39;s third quarter, revenue from this segment rose 2.8% to $40.7 billion.</p><p>According to CEO Tim Cook, &#34;Looking at the data on iPhone for the June quarter, there&#39;s not obvious evidence in there that there&#39;s a macroeconomic headwind. I&#39;m not saying that there&#39;s not one. I&#39;m saying that the data doesn&#39;t show it where we can clearly see that in the Wearables, Home and Accessories area.&#34;</p><p>Selling more iPhones isn&#39;t just a matter of generating revenue for Apple. It also helps the company grow its installed base, provided a customer not previously part of Apple&#39;s network purchases a new device. That seems to be at least part of the story, as Apple reported that its installed base reached all-time highs across all its products during its latest quarter.</p><p>The long-run implications of these developments are significant. The more people are plugged into Apple&#39;s services network, the more it can monetize these users, and the more it can grow its services revenue. During Apple&#39;s third quarter, the tech giant&#39;s services segment grew faster than the rest of its business, recording total sales of $19.6 billion, 12.1% higher than the year-ago period.</p><h2>3. Margins are making a difference for Apple</h2><p>A key advantage of Apple&#39;s services segment is its higher margins. Although the services segment is still far behind in sales, Apple has made a concerted effort over the years to improve its margins, and this unit has helped these initiatives. During its third quarter, Apple&#39;s products business recorded a gross margin of 34.5%, down 1.5 percentage points compared to the year-ago period.</p><p>However, the company&#39;s services segment saw its margins improve from 69.8% to 71.5%. That helped Apple&#39;s total gross margin remain flat year over year at 43.3%. Investors should look for Apple&#39;s margins to continue improving thanks to its services unit that is growing in importance.</p><h2>Buy Apple and forget</h2><p>Like the rest of the world, Apple is dealing with serious issues at the moment. But the company is not breaking under the weight of its (likely temporary) challenges -- not by a long shot. The customer loyalty it has built over the years is helping it grow sales, especially those of the iPhone. Apple boasts a valuable brand name that is second to none, be it in the technology sector or elsewhere.</p><p>Apple&#39;s services business is positively impacting the company&#39;s margins in a dynamic that will continue for many years. Overall, Apple still looks like an excellent long-term bet for patient investors. No wonder it is one of Warren Buffett&#39;s favorite stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons to Buy Apple Stock Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons to Buy Apple Stock Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-11 09:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/10/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Is there more fuel left in Apple's growth engine? Because the company has already delivered market-beating returns for years and is near the top of the exclusive group of trillion-dollar companies, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/10/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/10/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2258291275","content_text":"Is there more fuel left in Apple's growth engine? Because the company has already delivered market-beating returns for years and is near the top of the exclusive group of trillion-dollar companies, some investors are wondering if it's time to cash in. Others still see signs that Apple isn't done growing just yet.The Silicon Valley giant produced more evidence of its still-solid prospects when it released its latest quarterly update late last month. In it were clues that there are at least three reasons to think Apple isn't done growing yet and there is still time to get in on outsized returns. Let's take a look at those reasons.AAPL data by YCharts1. Despite economic headwinds, Apple is managing to do wellFears of a coming (or already present) recession are not unfounded, and inflation is eroding wage gains and savings. In a macroeconomic environment such as this, consumers tend to hold off spending on things they may want but don't need. That could easily describe many of Apple's products. A new smartphone is nice, as is a sleek pair of Bluetooth headphones. In reality, no one needs brand new versions of those things that often sell for well-above-average prices.This would suggest Apple is going to have a rough go of it. And while these challenging headwinds have certainly impacted its earnings, the tech giant is managing surprisingly well. In its latest quarterly update (the third quarter of its fiscal year 2022, ending on June 25), Apple's net sales were up by about 2% year over year to $83 billion.This modest top-line growth amid the issues Apple is battling is commendable. Apple's earnings per share did decrease to $1.20, down from the $1.30 reported during the year-ago period. Rising costs and expenses, partly due to inflation, may have played a role here. Still, overall, Apple's results were pretty solid. The company owed much of this success to its signature device, the iPhone.2. Long live the iPhoneApple's iPhone has been its major source of revenue for over a decade now. It arguably no longer generates the buzz it once did; the tech industry used to stop everything and listen every time Apple would announce a new version of its prized device. But demand for the iPhone remains strong. During Apple's third quarter, revenue from this segment rose 2.8% to $40.7 billion.According to CEO Tim Cook, \"Looking at the data on iPhone for the June quarter, there's not obvious evidence in there that there's a macroeconomic headwind. I'm not saying that there's not one. I'm saying that the data doesn't show it where we can clearly see that in the Wearables, Home and Accessories area.\"Selling more iPhones isn't just a matter of generating revenue for Apple. It also helps the company grow its installed base, provided a customer not previously part of Apple's network purchases a new device. That seems to be at least part of the story, as Apple reported that its installed base reached all-time highs across all its products during its latest quarter.The long-run implications of these developments are significant. The more people are plugged into Apple's services network, the more it can monetize these users, and the more it can grow its services revenue. During Apple's third quarter, the tech giant's services segment grew faster than the rest of its business, recording total sales of $19.6 billion, 12.1% higher than the year-ago period.3. Margins are making a difference for AppleA key advantage of Apple's services segment is its higher margins. Although the services segment is still far behind in sales, Apple has made a concerted effort over the years to improve its margins, and this unit has helped these initiatives. During its third quarter, Apple's products business recorded a gross margin of 34.5%, down 1.5 percentage points compared to the year-ago period.However, the company's services segment saw its margins improve from 69.8% to 71.5%. That helped Apple's total gross margin remain flat year over year at 43.3%. Investors should look for Apple's margins to continue improving thanks to its services unit that is growing in importance.Buy Apple and forgetLike the rest of the world, Apple is dealing with serious issues at the moment. But the company is not breaking under the weight of its (likely temporary) challenges -- not by a long shot. The customer loyalty it has built over the years is helping it grow sales, especially those of the iPhone. Apple boasts a valuable brand name that is second to none, be it in the technology sector or elsewhere.Apple's services business is positively impacting the company's margins in a dynamic that will continue for many years. Overall, Apple still looks like an excellent long-term bet for patient investors. No wonder it is one of Warren Buffett's favorite stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}