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HolaV

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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-11-24
  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Gogo Tiger!!
  359 Comment
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-11-23
  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-11-16
  Go SEA!!
  Sea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate
  Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20
  Sea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-11-13
  Thank you!
  SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?
  SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean?
  SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-11-12
  $Apple(AAPL)$
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-10-03
  $S&P 500(.SPX)$
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-10-03
  $SEA LTD(SE)$waiting
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-10-03
  $Sea Ltd(SE)$Go SEA!
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-10-03
  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Riding the story...
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- HolaVHolaV
  ·2022-09-30
  Good learning
  Alibaba Is Dirt Cheap But So Are These 2 Faster-Growing Dividend Blue Chips
  SummaryThis bear market has created a sea of blue-chip bargains for smart long-term investors, inclu
  Alibaba Is Dirt Cheap But So Are These 2 Faster-Growing Dividend Blue Chips
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Gogo Tiger!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Gogo Tiger!!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Gogo Tiger!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968673458","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968197006,"gmtCreate":1669158965405,"gmtModify":1676538158730,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968197006","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963019316,"gmtCreate":1668553540535,"gmtModify":1676538073475,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go SEA!!","listText":"Go SEA!!","text":"Go SEA!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963019316","repostId":"1121623335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121623335","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668512056,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121623335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-15 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121623335","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20b beat $3.00b estimate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb2657944b1732fa6976757f72f2d82c\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>E-commerce revenue grew 32.4% Y/Y to $1.98B. Gross orders totaled 2.B, an increase of 21.4% Y/Y.</p><p>&#34;Given rising macro uncertainties, and with reopening trends having an ongoing effect on the business, we are revising the guidance for digital entertainment. We now expect bookings for the full year of 2022 to be between US$2.6 billion and US$2.8 billion, as compared to the previous guidance of between US$2.9 billion to US$3.1 billion.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Shares Surged 11% as Sales Beat Estimate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-15 19:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20b beat $3.00b estimate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb2657944b1732fa6976757f72f2d82c\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>E-commerce revenue grew 32.4% Y/Y to $1.98B. Gross orders totaled 2.B, an increase of 21.4% Y/Y.</p><p>&#34;Given rising macro uncertainties, and with reopening trends having an ongoing effect on the business, we are revising the guidance for digital entertainment. We now expect bookings for the full year of 2022 to be between US$2.6 billion and US$2.8 billion, as compared to the previous guidance of between US$2.9 billion to US$3.1 billion.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121623335","content_text":"Sea shares surged 11% as sales beat estimate. Sea Q3 EPS $(0.66) beats $(1.09) estimate, sales $3.20b beat $3.00b estimate.E-commerce revenue grew 32.4% Y/Y to $1.98B. Gross orders totaled 2.B, an increase of 21.4% Y/Y.\"Given rising macro uncertainties, and with reopening trends having an ongoing effect on the business, we are revising the guidance for digital entertainment. We now expect bookings for the full year of 2022 to be between US$2.6 billion and US$2.8 billion, as compared to the previous guidance of between US$2.9 billion to US$3.1 billion.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969963888,"gmtCreate":1668319440945,"gmtModify":1676538041156,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you!","listText":"Thank you!","text":"Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969963888","repostId":"1190456060","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190456060","pubTimestamp":1668302284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190456060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-13 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190456060","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF  that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday  - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean?","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Large 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.</li><li>Major bottoms require a policy change.</li><li>The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d234d2c3a6fdd66410e8c4fdc86a25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>gonin/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>The top 20: daily returns for S&amp;P500</h2><p>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&amp;P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&amp;P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let&#39;s first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&amp;P500:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a00554a6ad210b0ab26216de0667def\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"1314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As you can see from the list above,</p><ul><li>12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.</li><li>8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.</li><li>2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.</li></ul><p>Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&amp;P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.</p><h2>The major bottom thesis</h2><p>The major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.</p><p>The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.</p><p>As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed&#39;s tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.</p><p>The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It&#39;s true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.</p><p>However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether &#34;something will break&#34; during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.</p><h2>The recessionary selloff</h2><p>The S&amp;P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.</p><p>Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.</p><p>Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ef81e28bf62d769ca5f75f29feb339\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FRED</span></p><p>Based on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.</p><h2>Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?</h2><p>The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.</p><p>The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.</p><p>But don&#39;t count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.</p><p>But don&#39;t expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.</p><h2>It&#39;s a bear market rally</h2><p>We are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of &#34;things breaking&#34; like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.</p><p>Bear market rallies happen during the &#34;in-between periods&#34;, so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don&#39;t think anybody expects this over the near term. Don&#39;t fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.</p><h2>SPY sector analysis</h2><p>AllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d11bae7fc6e9bba3dee9e588bd902bb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SelectSectorSPDR</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-13 09:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190456060","content_text":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let's first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&P500:As you can see from the list above,12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.The major bottom thesisThe major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed's monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed's tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It's true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether \"something will break\" during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.The recessionary selloffThe S&P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:FREDBased on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.But don't count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.But don't expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it's more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it's more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.It's a bear market rallyWe are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of \"things breaking\" like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.Bear market rallies happen during the \"in-between periods\", so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don't think anybody expects this over the near term. Don't fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.SPY sector analysisAllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.SelectSectorSPDR","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960592188,"gmtCreate":1668206942945,"gmtModify":1676538027260,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912114386","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912115359,"gmtCreate":1664769652671,"gmtModify":1676537505617,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>waiting","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>waiting","text":"$SEA LTD(SE)$waiting","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2314b64f7e286a5613d782ca8cfda706","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912115359","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912112219,"gmtCreate":1664769567431,"gmtModify":1676537505584,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>Go SEA!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>Go SEA!","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$Go SEA!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7d27b305aeca54b786f86a26df2e6d3f","width":"1080","height":"1893"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912112219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912112326,"gmtCreate":1664769507165,"gmtModify":1676537505575,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Riding the story...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Riding the story...","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Riding the story...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86ba55157ef5aab933b9dff3d7720cf5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912112326","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916349892,"gmtCreate":1664517904016,"gmtModify":1676537470563,"author":{"id":"4096806837947780","authorId":"4096806837947780","name":"HolaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4d81d52207835e2cce9cd19b24ed16","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4096806837947780","idStr":"4096806837947780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good learning","listText":"Good learning","text":"Good learning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916349892","repostId":"1140060156","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140060156","pubTimestamp":1664496835,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140060156?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 08:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Is Dirt Cheap But So Are These 2 Faster-Growing Dividend Blue Chips","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140060156","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThis bear market has created a sea of blue-chip bargains for smart long-term investors, inclu","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>This bear market has created a sea of blue-chip bargains for smart long-term investors, including some of the world&#39;s best growth stocks.</li><li>Alibaba&#39;s growth outlook has risen by 50% in the last few months, but only to 12.8%. That&#39;s not that impressive given the highly speculative nature of this high risk investment.</li><li>Alibaba is now 52% historically undervalued and could potentially quadruple in the next five years. I recommend a 1% or smaller max position sizing, given the risk profile.</li><li>LOW is a hyper-growth very low risk Ultra SWAN quality dividend king growing at 20%, trading at a 34% discount. LOW could triple in five years.</li><li>QCOM is a hyper-growth low risk Ultra SWAN tech titan growing at 15.4%, trading at 7.9X cash-adjusted earnings that could triple in five years. Both LOW and QCOM are expected to deliver superior income and long-term returns, with less risk than BABA, making them superior alternatives for bear market bargain hunters today.</li><li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Kings get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c681a582bf688c918ae47720bb595aa\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It&#39;s raining blue-chip bargains everywhere you look! You can&#39;t swing a dead cat without hitting a world-beater blue-chip that&#39;s getting crushed by the relentless increase in interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f5e9ec0a75d2399537200ae46d50ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>Since its August 16th high, the market is down 15%, the Nasdaq17%, and many popular growth stocks are down 20% or more. Hope for a Fed pivot? My, oh, my, what a difference just five weeks makes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8c9c92162a81a2f58903747ecea529\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CME Group</p><p>The bond market is now pricing in another mega hike in November, a 50 basis point increase in December, and 25 in February and March. That&#39;s a 4.75% peak rate that the Fed says it doesn&#39;t plan to start cutting until potentially October...of 2024. How much lower could the market fall?</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Bridgewater, and Carl Icahn, the market will likely bottom at -35% to -40% from record highs if we get a recession in 2023. How much further is that from our -24% levels now?</p><p>S&amp;P Correction Watch</p><table><tbody><tr><td>All-Time High</td><td>4,818.62</td></tr><tr><td>Current</td><td>$3,656.41</td></tr><tr><td><b>Distance From High</b></td><td><b>24.12%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Pullback Level</td><td>4577.69</td></tr><tr><td>Correction Level</td><td>4336.76</td></tr><tr><td>-15% Correction Level (Historically Average Correction Bottom)</td><td>4095.83</td></tr><tr><td>Bear Market Level (-20%)</td><td>3854.90</td></tr><tr><td>-25% Bear Market</td><td>3613.97</td></tr><tr><td>-30% Bear Market</td><td>3373.03</td></tr><tr><td>-35% Bear Market</td><td>3132.10</td></tr><tr><td>-40% Bear Market</td><td>2891.17</td></tr><tr><td>Distance To Pullback</td><td>-19.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Distance To Correction</td><td>-18.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Distance To 15% Correction</td><td>-12.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Distance To Bear Market</td><td>-5.43%</td></tr><tr><td>Distance To -25% Bear Market</td><td>1.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Distance To -30% Bear Market</td><td>7.8%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Distance To -35% Bear Market (Average Historical Recessionary Bear Market Low -36%)</b></td><td><b>14.3%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Distance To -40% Bear Market</b></td><td><b>20.9%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Decline To Historical Fair Value</td><td>-9.1%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Dividend Kings S&amp;P 500 Valuation &amp; Total Return Tool)</i></p><p>Higher for longer is the order of the day, and that&#39;s a good thing. Stocks potentially falling another 14% to 21% is also a good thing.</p><p>I know what you&#39;re thinking. &#34;Are you high?! How can this possibly be a good thing?!&#34;</p><p>According to Societe Generale and UBS, if the Fed gives investors what they want right now, an early pivot and rate cuts, here&#39;s what might be coming in the next decade.</p><p>This Is What Stagflation Hell Looks Like:</p><ul><li>inflation doesn&#39;t subside</li><li>inflation expectations start rising</li><li><b>a decade of spiraling inflation</b></li><li><b>several severe recessions</b></li><li><b>double-digit unemployment</b></li><li>much higher interest rates for 10 years</li><li><i><b>stocks bottom in 2 to 3 years...at -48% to -53%</b></i></li><li><i><b>as much as 37% lower than current levels</b></i></li><li><i><b>a lost decade for the S&amp;P 500</b></i></li></ul><p>Do you still want the Fed to pivot? Or do you want it to finish the job and kill inflation now? Do you want six to 12 months of pain followed by a 4X to 5X decade-long gain in stocks? Or would you prefer a lost decade?</p><p>Do you know the last time the Fed pivoted early and gave investors what they thought they wanted?</p><p>Fed Chairman Arthur Burns in 1973 lost his nerve and started cutting rates early, before inflation was defeated:</p><ul><li>we ended up with a decade of stagflation hell</li><li>two severe recessions</li><li>11% unemployment</li><li><b>a 54% stock market crash</b></li><li><b>the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat for 16 years</b></li></ul><p>The only thing worse than the Fed pivoting is the Fed not finishing the job right now.</p><p>OK, so that&#39;s why higher rates are good for all of us in the long-term. And, of course, the next six to 12 months (how long Morgan Stanley things it will take to bottom) could be a golden age of blue-chip bargain hunting.</p><p>And that brings me to today&#39;s topic, a Dividend Kings&#39; member request for an update on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA).</p><p>What do current and potential investors in BABA want to know? Three things mainly.</p><ol><li>What are BABA&#39;s growth prospects in the future?</li><li>Is BABA a good deal today? Should I buy it?</li><li>What kind of returns can I realistically make?</li></ol><p>Let&#39;s answer those questions, but then answer the 4th and most important question of all?</p><p>4. What superior alternatives to BABA can I buy that are likely to earn me higher returns with less risk?</p><h2>Question One: What Are Alibaba&#39;s Growth Prospects Today?</h2><p>Last I updated BABA; its growth outlook had fallen to 8.4%. That&#39;s a lot of fundamental risks to take on for a non-dividend growth stock without the growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f978d04d21a0e0f1ee2e3d123265ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"96\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>The good news is that BABA&#39;s growth outlook has improved by about 50% in the last few months to nearly 13% CAGR. It&#39;s once more a growth stock.</p><p>In fact, BABA&#39;s margins are once more expected to start growing again in the coming years.</p><p>Alibaba Profit Margin Consensus Forecast</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>FCF Margin</b></td><td><b>EBITDA Margin</b></td><td><b>EBIT (Operating) Margin</b></td><td><b>Net Margin</b></td><td><b>Return On Capital Expansion</b></td><td><p><b>Return On Capital Forecast</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>15.3%</td><td>20.5%</td><td>9.1%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>2.20</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>9.5%</td><td>18.1%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>9.1%</td><td>TTM ROC</td><td>40.91%</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>9.3%</td><td>18.5%</td><td>10.9%</td><td>10.5%</td><td>Latest ROC</td><td>54.66%</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>9.9%</td><td>19.0%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>11.0%</td><td>2027 ROC</td><td>89.85%</td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>14.6%</td><td>20.2%</td><td>13.8%</td><td>13.4%</td><td>2027 ROC</td><td>120.05%</td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>NA</td><td>25.9%</td><td>18.8%</td><td>16.3%</td><td><b>Average</b></td><td><b>104.95%</b></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>NA</td><td>29.0%</td><td>21.8%</td><td>18.3%</td><td>Industry Median</td><td>10.58%</td></tr><tr><td>2028</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td>NA</td><td><i><b>BABA/Industry Median</b></i></td><td><i><b>9.92</b></i></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Growth 2022-2027</b></td><td><b>-1.10%</b></td><td><b>5.95%</b></td><td><b>15.58%</b></td><td><b>10.00%</b></td><td><i><b>Vs. S&amp;P</b></i></td><td><i><b>7.19</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p><p>BABA&#39;s Free cash flow margins aren&#39;t expected to improve much due to high growth spending. But it&#39;s other margins are expected to improve at an impressive rate.</p><p>And its return on capital, annual pre-tax profit/the cost of running the business are expected to more than double in the next few years, to 105%. That&#39;s 10X more than its industry peers and over 7X that of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>Alibaba Medium-Term Growth Consensus Forecast</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Sales</b></td><td><b>Free Cash Flow</b></td><td><b>EBITDA</b></td><td><b>EBIT (Operating Income)</b></td><td><b>Net Income</b></td></tr><tr><td>2021</td><td>$122,778</td><td>$18,726</td><td>$25,208</td><td>$11,212</td><td>$12,669</td></tr><tr><td>2022</td><td>$127,647</td><td>$12,183</td><td>$23,151</td><td>$12,653</td><td>$11,670</td></tr><tr><td>2023</td><td>$138,519</td><td>$12,816</td><td>$25,571</td><td>$15,133</td><td>$14,565</td></tr><tr><td>2024</td><td>$155,150</td><td>$15,435</td><td>$29,442</td><td>$18,763</td><td>$17,136</td></tr><tr><td>2025</td><td>$170,768</td><td>$24,914</td><td>$34,449</td><td>$23,604</td><td>$22,871</td></tr><tr><td>2026</td><td>$177,928</td><td>NA</td><td>$46,051</td><td>$33,492</td><td>$28,914</td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>$188,949</td><td>NA</td><td>$54,875</td><td>$41,137</td><td>$34,540</td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Growth 2021-2027</b></td><td><b>7.45%</b></td><td><b>7.40%</b></td><td><b>13.84%</b></td><td><b>24.19%</b></td><td><b>18.19%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Cumulative 2022-2025</b></td><td><b>$592,084</b></td><td><b>$65,348</b></td><td><b>$112,613</b></td><td><b>$70,153</b></td><td><b>$66,242</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p><p>As a result, modest 7% to 8% sales growth is expected to translate into 18% growth in net income and 24% growth in operating income.</p><p>Mind you, the days of BABA growing at its former 30% to 55% rates are likely done for good, thanks to stricter regulations and much higher compliance costs.</p><ul><li>including &#34;voluntary&#34; charitable contributions that aren&#39;t really voluntary</li></ul><p>So that brings us to the next question, what is BABA worth today with a 50% better long-term growth outlook? And after a 15% decline in the last month, is it potentially worth buying today?</p><h2>Question Two: Is Alibaba A Good Deal Today?</h2><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Historical Fair Value Multiples (6-Years)</b></td><td><b>2021</b></td><td><b>2022</b></td><td><b>2023</b></td><td><b>2024</b></td><td><b>2025</b></td><td><p><b>12-Month Forward Fair Value</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Earnings</td><td>23.46</td><td>$196.59</td><td>$169.15</td><td>$180.17</td><td>$203.63</td><td>$249.15</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>$196.59</td><td>$169.15</td><td>$180.17</td><td>$203.63</td><td>$249.15</td><td><b>$177.63</b></td></tr><tr><td>Current Price</td><td>$79.03</td></tr><tr><td><p>Discount To Fair Value</p></td><td>59.80%</td><td>53.28%</td><td>56.14%</td><td>61.19%</td><td>68.28%</td><td><b>55.51%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Upside To Fair Value</td><td>148.76%</td><td>114.03%</td><td>127.98%</td><td>157.67%</td><td>215.25%</td><td><b>124.76%</b></td></tr><tr><td>2022 P/E</td><td>2023 P/E</td><td>2022 Weighted EPS</td><td>2023 Weighted EPS</td><td>12-Month Forward OCF</td><td><b>12-Month Average Fair Value Forward P/E</b></td><td><p><i><b>Current Forward P/E</b></i></p></td></tr><tr><td>$7.21</td><td>$7.68</td><td>$1.66</td><td>$5.91</td><td>$7.57</td><td><b>23.5</b></td><td><i><b>10.4</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FAST Graphs)</i></p><p>BABA growing at the approximate rate analysts expect in the future is worth about 23.5X earnings, and today it trades at just 10.4X earnings.</p><ul><li>7.3X cash-adjusted earnings</li></ul><p>This is a 56% historical discount and a speculative anti-bubble blue-chip valuation.</p><ul><li>BABA is pricing in approximately -2.4% CAGR growth</li></ul><table><tbody><tr><td><p><b>Analyst Median 12-Month Price Target</b></p></td><td><p><b>Morningstar Fair Value Estimate</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>$145.84 (12.4 P/E)</td><td>$179.00 (23.6 P/E)</td></tr><tr><td><p><b>Discount To Price Target (Not A Fair Value Estimate)</b></p></td><td><p><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>45.84%</td><td>55.88%</td></tr><tr><td><p><b>Upside To Price Target</b></p></td><td><p><b>Upside To Fair Value</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>84.65%</td><td>126.64%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: FactSet Research, Morningstar)</i></p><p>Analysts expect BABA to be trading at 12.4X earnings in 12 months and deliver a potential 85% gain.</p><p>Morningstar&#39;s discounted cash flow model agrees with my model that BABA is worth about 24X earnings and is 56% undervalued.</p><p>Ok, BABA is unquestionably cheap, at least based on consensus estimates (which it&#39;s been missing for over a year).</p><p>But given BABA&#39;s higher risk profile than most growth tech stocks, is it a good buy on a risk-adjusted basis? Is the margin of safety high enough to compensate for the very high-risk profile discussed in detail in this article?</p><ul><li>Alibaba&#39;s Thesis Is Close To Breaking: 5 Things Investors Need To Know</li></ul><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Margin Of Safety For High Risk Highly Speculative 9/13 Above-Average Quality Companies</b></td><td><b>2022 Fair Value Price</b></td><td><b>2023 Fair Value Price</b></td><td><p><b>12-Month Forward Fair Value</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td><td>0%</td><td>$169.15</td><td>$180.17</td><td>$177.63</td></tr><tr><td>Potentially Good Buy</td><td>35%</td><td>$109.95</td><td>$117.11</td><td>$115.46</td></tr><tr><td>Potentially Strong Buy</td><td>45%</td><td>$93.03</td><td>$99.10</td><td>$97.70</td></tr><tr><td><b>Potentially Very Strong Highly Speculative Buy</b></td><td><b>55%</b></td><td><b>$49.48</b></td><td><b>$81.08</b></td><td><b>$79.93</b></td></tr><tr><td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td><td>65%</td><td>$59.20</td><td>$63.06</td><td>$62.17</td></tr><tr><td>Currently</td><td>$78.98</td><td>53.31%</td><td>56.16%</td><td><b>55.54%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</td><td>114.16%</td><td>128.12%</td><td>124.90%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal)</i></p><p>Alibaba is a high-risk, highly speculative growth stock with a 1% OR LESS max risk cap recommendation.</p><p>It&#39;s risk profile is so extreme that it takes a 35% margin of safety for it to be a potentially highly speculative good buy. But a 56% margin does make it a POTENTIALLY highly speculative, very strong buy IF, and only if you&#39;re comfortable with its complex and extreme risk profile.</p><ul><li>including regulatory risk</li><li>and a high degree of uncertainty surrounding its long-term growth prospects</li></ul><p>What does a 56% margin of safety potentially mean for short and long-term return potential? Some very impressive potential returns.</p><h2>Question Three: What Kind Of Returns Can I Expect From Alibaba In The Future?</h2><p>Alibaba 2025 Consensus Return Potential<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08192dbbe5659caf6eb64b87574b39\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>A 56% margin of safety means that BABA has the potential to nearly triple in the next three years, delivering potentially Buffett-like 51% annual returns.</p><p>Alibaba 2028 Consensus Return Potential<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618d8b5874b7a4b20a24b9626476f006\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>An anti-bubble valuation means that BABA could potentially quadruple over the next few years, delivering Buffett-like 29% CAGR total returns.</p><ul><li>-8% CAGR to 30% CAGR is the 5-year consensus return potential range</li><li>high growth uncertainty</li></ul><p>Now compare that to the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c816c2cd888c42d04362749c1cb071\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><ul><li>BABA offers more than 6X the return potential of the S&amp;P 500 over the next three years</li></ul><p><b>S&amp;P 500 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential</b></p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Upside Potential By End of That Year</b></td><td><b>Consensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That Year</b></td><td><b>Probability-Weighted Return (Annualized)</b></td><td><p><b>Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>64.89%</td><td>10.52%</td><td>7.89%</td><td>5.57%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK S&amp;P 500 Valuation &amp; Total Return Tool)</i></p><p>Over the next five years, analysts expect 10.5% annual returns from the S&amp;P 500.</p><ul><li>BABA offers 5X the return potential of the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><p>So does that mean BABA is a must-buy stock right now? No, because long-term, the return potential is a far more modest 12.8% CAGR.</p><p>Just look at all the lower-risk alternatives expected to outperform BABA in the coming decades.</p><p>Dividend Champions Expected To Outperform Alibaba Over The Long-Term<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833b3731ce0b6ac5cdf7299d48f62f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Zen Research Terminal</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3de52750a656c06c01c57b8ae392bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Zen Research Terminal</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/014c0f3b48ea4e35cc252f53a3087b5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Zen Research Terminal</p><p>These are 22 dividend champions (25+ year dividend growth streak) companies that combined offer:</p><ul><li>3.1% very safe yield</li><li>a 27% discount to fair value</li><li>a 14.9 P/E</li><li>12.4% CAGR growth consensus</li><li>15.5% CAGR long-term total return potential.</li></ul><table><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>22 Dividend Champion Alibaba Alternatives</b></td><td><b>3.1%</b></td><td><b>12.4%</b></td><td><b>15.5%</b></td><td><b>10.9%</b></td><td><b>8.6%</b></td><td><b>8.4</b></td><td><b>2.27</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Alibaba</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>12.8%</b></td><td><b>12.8%</b></td><td><b>9.0%</b></td><td><b>6.7%</b></td><td><b>10.8</b></td><td><b>1.91</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.9%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.7%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>6.6%</td><td>10.9</td><td>1.89</td></tr><tr><td>High-Yield (SCHD)</td><td>3.4%</td><td>8.7%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>6.2%</td><td>11.7</td><td>1.82</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.6%</td><td>11.2%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.5%</td><td>13.0</td><td>1.71</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.6</td><td>1.62</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Yes, Alibaba is expected to outperform most investment strategies slightly.</p><p>But which would help you sleep better at night in a potential recession?</p><p>Owning 22 fast-growing dividend champions? The entire Nasdaq (the best dividend growth ETF of all time)? Or Alibaba?</p><p>Alibaba&#39;s fundamental risk is 0.6% over the next 30 years.</p><ul><li>A+ stable credit rating from all three agencies</li></ul><p>But the fundamental risk from 22 dividend champions? That&#39;s effectively zero, and it&#39;s also zero for the Nasdaq 100.</p><ul><li>the chance of all 22 to 100 companies going to zero is very close to zero</li></ul><h2>Question Four: What Are Potentially Superior Alternatives To Alibaba I Should Buy Instead?</h2><p>We&#39;ve already seen how there are nearly two dozen superior fast-growing dividend alternatives to Alibaba, including those with stronger credit ratings, lower fundamental risk, and superior return potential.</p><p>Here are two of my favorite hyper-growth dividend blue-chip alternatives to BABA.</p><p>Lowe&#39;s Companies, Inc. (LOW): As Close To God&#39;s Own Dividend King As Exists On Wall Street</p><p><b>Further Reading</b></p><ul><li>Lowe&#39;s: This Buffett-Style Dividend Aristocrat Could Potentially Triple In 5 Years</li><li>a full deep dive look at LOW&#39;s investment thesis, growth prospects, risk profile, valuation, and total return potential</li></ul><p>Reasons To Potentially Buy Lowe&#39;s Today</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Lowes</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Quality</b></td><td><b>100% 13/13 Ultra SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) Dividend King</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Very Low Risk</td></tr><tr><td>DK Master List Quality Ranking (Out Of 500 Companies)</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td><b>Quality Percentile</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Dividend Growth Streak (Years)</b></td><td><b>60</b></td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Yield</td><td>2.3%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Dividend Safety Score</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Average Recession Dividend Cut Risk</b></td><td><b>0.5%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Severe Recession Dividend Cut Risk</b></td><td><b>1.00%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>S&amp;P Credit Rating</b></td><td><b>BBB+ Stable</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>30-Year Bankruptcy Risk</b></td><td><b>5%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus LT Risk-Management Industry Percentile</b></td><td><b>82% Very Good</b></td></tr><tr><td>Fair Value</td><td>$283.65</td></tr><tr><td>Current Price</td><td>$186.02</td></tr><tr><td><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></td><td><b>34%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>DK Rating</b></td><td><p><b>Potentially Very Strong Buy</b></p></td></tr><tr><td><b>PE</b></td><td><b>13.0</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Cash-Adjusted PE</b></td><td><b>12.7</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Growth Priced In</b></td><td><b>8.4%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Historical PE Range</td><td>19 to 21</td></tr><tr><td>LT Growth Consensus/Management Guidance</td><td>20.10%</td></tr><tr><td><b>PEG Ratio</b></td><td><b>0.63 (hyper-growth at a wonderful price)</b></td></tr><tr><td>5-year consensus total return potential</td><td><p>18% to 24% CAGR</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Base Case 5-year consensus return potential</b></td><td><p><b>25% CAGR (4X better than the S&amp;P 500)</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Consensus 12-month total return forecast</td><td>34%</td></tr><tr><td>Fundamentally Justified 12-Month Return Potential</td><td>55%</td></tr><tr><td><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>22.4%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Consensus LT Return Potential</td><td>20.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Consensus 10-Year Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Potential (Ignoring Valuation)</td><td>6.29</td></tr><tr><td>LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>14.90%</td></tr><tr><td>LT Risk-And Inflation-Adjusted Return Potential</td><td>12.68%</td></tr><tr><td>Conservative Years To Double</td><td>5.68</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Dividend Kings Zen Research Terminal)</i></p><p>LOW is as close to a perfect quality company as can exist on Wall Street, is growing at 20%, and yet is trading at 13X earnings.</p><p>It&#39;s 34% undervalued and just 1% above its Ultra Value Buffett-style &#34;fat pitch&#34; price.</p><p><b>Lowe&#39;s 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f676ac5c03a3b5605e9c921163dcf5b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>If Lowe&#39;s grows as expected and returns to historical mid-range market-determined fair value, it could deliver almost 80% total returns by January 2025, or Buffett-like 28% annual returns.</p><p><b>Lowe&#39;s 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d8e56fba39bad3d6e4ab2fd36c0c664\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>If Lowe&#39;s grows as expected and returns to historical fair value, it could deliver 227% total returns, or 25% annually, over the coming five years.</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Lowe&#39;s</b></td><td><b>2.3%</b></td><td><b>20.1%</b></td><td><b>22.4%</b></td><td><b>15.7%</b></td><td><b>13.4%</b></td><td><b>5.4</b></td><td><b>3.51</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Alibaba</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>12.8%</b></td><td><b>12.8%</b></td><td><b>9.0%</b></td><td><b>6.7%</b></td><td><b>10.8</b></td><td><b>1.91</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.9%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.7%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>6.6%</td><td>10.9</td><td>1.89</td></tr><tr><td>Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.80%</td><td>12.4%</td><td>8.7%</td><td>6.4%</td><td>11.3</td><td>1.86</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.6%</td><td>11.2%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.5%</td><td>13.0</td><td>1.71</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.6</td><td>1.62</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)</i></p><p>LOW offers nearly 2X the long-term annual return potential of BABA, from a hyper-growth Ultra SWAN dividend king, no less.</p><p>Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Total Return Potential: $1,000 Initial Investment</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>8% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&amp;P 500 Consensus</b></td><td><b>10.5% Inflation-Adjusted BABA Consensus</b></td><td><b>20.1% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted LOW Consensus</b></td><td><b>Difference Between Inflation-Adjusted LOW Consensus And BABA Consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>$1,470.01</td><td>$1,648.19</td><td>$2,499.75</td><td>$851.55</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>$2,160.92</td><td>$2,716.54</td><td>$6,248.73</td><td>$3,532.19</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>$3,176.58</td><td>$4,477.38</td><td>$15,620.23</td><td>$11,142.86</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>$4,669.60</td><td>$7,379.58</td><td>$39,046.61</td><td>$31,667.03</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>Even if LOW&#39;s grows only as expected for the next decade it could potentially deliver over 6X inflation-adjusted returns, far more than BABA (ignoring valuation, which cancels out over time).</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>Ratio Inflation And Inflation-Adjusted LOW vs. BABA consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>1.52</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>2.30</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>3.49</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>5.29</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>Lowe&#39;s has the potential to more than double BABA&#39;s returns over the next decade, and if it can keep growing at the expected rate for longer, potentially more than 5X greater returns over the next 20 years.</p><p>LOW Corp Investment Decision Tool<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b07e6566508ada813c034886cb7cde7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)</p><p>LOW is potentially a good hyper-growth dividend king opportunity for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.</p><ul><li>34% discount to fair value Vs. 8% S&amp;P = 26% better valuation</li><li>2.3% safe yield vs. 1.8% S&amp;P (33% higher and growing 2.5X as fast)</li><li><b>120% higher annual long-term return potential</b></li><li>over 2X higher risk-adjusted expected returns</li><li>50% more consensus 5-year income</li></ul><p>QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM): Hyper-Dividend Growth At A Wonderful Price</p><p><b>Further Reading</b></p><ul><li>Qualcomm: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price</li><li>a full deep dive look at LOW&#39;s investment thesis, growth prospects, risk profile, valuation, and total return potential</li></ul><p>Reasons To Potentially Buy Qualcomm Today</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Quality</b></td><td><b>93% 13/13 Ultra SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) Chip Maker</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Low Risk</td></tr><tr><td>DK Master List Quality Ranking (Out Of 500 Companies)</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Quality Percentile</td><td>91%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Dividend Growth Streak (Years)</b></td><td><b>18</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Dividend Yield</b></td><td><b>2.5%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Dividend Safety Score</b></td><td><b>93%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Average Recession Dividend Cut Risk</b></td><td><b>0.5%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Severe Recession Dividend Cut Risk</b></td><td><b>1.35%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>S&amp;P Credit Rating</b></td><td><b>A Stable</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>30-Year Bankruptcy Risk</b></td><td><b>1%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus LT Risk-Management Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>78% Good, Bordering On Very Good</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Fair Value</td><td>$175.50</td></tr><tr><td>Current Price</td><td>$119.74</td></tr><tr><td><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></td><td><b>32%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>DK Rating</b></td><td><p><b>Potentially Very Strong Buy</b></p></td></tr><tr><td><b>P/E</b></td><td><b>9.2</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Cash-Adjusted P/E</b></td><td><b>7.9 (anti-bubble blue-chip)</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Growth Priced In</b></td><td><b>-1.2% CAGR</b></td></tr><tr><td>Historical PE Range</td><td>16 to 17.5</td></tr><tr><td>LT Growth Consensus/Management Guidance</td><td>15.40%</td></tr><tr><td><b>PEG Ratio</b></td><td><b>0.51 (hyper-growth at a wonderful price)</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>5-year consensus total return potential</b></td><td><p><b>15% to 24% CAGR</b></p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Base Case 5-year consensus return potential</b></td><td><p><b>23% CAGR (3X better than the S&amp;P 500)</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Consensus 12-month total return forecast</td><td>63%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Fundamentally Justified 12-Month Return Potential</b></td><td><b>49%</b></td></tr><tr><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>17.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Consensus LT Return Potential</td><td>15.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Consensus 10-Year Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Potential (Ignoring Valuation)</td><td>4.29</td></tr><tr><td>LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>12.45%</td></tr><tr><td>LT Risk-And Inflation-Adjusted Return Potential</td><td>10.23%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Conservative Years To Double</b></td><td><b>7.03 Vs. 15.2 S&amp;P 500</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Dividend Kings Zen Research Terminal)</i></p><p>QCOM is trading at 7.9X cash-adjusted earnings, a BABA-like valuation. Except it&#39;s growing faster and pays a very safe and attractive dividend.</p><ul><li>0.51 PEG is incredibly attractive</li></ul><p>Analysts think QCOM will deliver 63% returns in the next year, and a 50% gain would be justified by its fundamentals.</p><p>QCOM&#39;s conservative time to double is 7 years, half that of the S&amp;P 500.</p><ul><li>adjust consensus long-term return potential for the probability of the company not growing as expected</li><li>or even going bankrupt</li><li>and inflation</li><li>conservatively QCOM could double your inflation-adjusted wealth in 7 years</li><li>and quadruple it in 14 years</li></ul><p>Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5a804cb322fb7c626f6aad3c3ef766\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>If QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical fair value, it could nearly double by September 2024, delivering Buffett-like 39% annual total returns.</p><p>Qualcomm 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c86d3f6023e0bb583f8923f5bd1d372c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>If QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical fair value, it could triple in five years, delivering Buffett-like 25% annual total returns.</p><p>But remember that what matters more than incredible medium-term returns are long-term returns that could change your life.</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td>Lowe&#39;s</td><td>2.3%</td><td>20.1%</td><td>22.4%</td><td>15.7%</td><td>13.4%</td><td>5.4</td><td>3.51</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.5%</b></td><td><b>15.4%</b></td><td><b>17.9%</b></td><td><b>12.5%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.0</b></td><td><b>2.65</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Alibaba</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>12.8%</b></td><td><b>12.8%</b></td><td><b>9.0%</b></td><td><b>6.7%</b></td><td><b>10.8</b></td><td><b>1.91</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.9%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.7%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>6.6%</td><td>10.9</td><td>1.89</td></tr><tr><td>Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.80%</td><td>12.4%</td><td>8.7%</td><td>6.4%</td><td>11.3</td><td>1.86</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.6%</td><td>11.2%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.5%</td><td>13.0</td><td>1.71</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.6</td><td>1.62</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)</i></p><p>QCOM is expected to potentially run circles around almost every investment strategy, including the Nasdaq and BABA.</p><p>Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Total Return Potential: $1,000 Initial Investment</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>8% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&amp;P 500 Consensus</b></td><td><b>10.5% Inflation-Adjusted BABA Consensus</b></td><td><b>15.6% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted QCOM Consensus</b></td><td><b>Difference Between Inflation-Adjusted QCOM Consensus And BABA Consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>$1,470.01</td><td>$1,648.19</td><td>$2,065.27</td><td>$417.08</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>$2,160.92</td><td>$2,716.54</td><td>$4,265.34</td><td>$1,548.81</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>$3,176.58</td><td>$4,477.38</td><td>$8,809.09</td><td>$4,331.71</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>$4,669.60</td><td>$7,379.58</td><td>$18,193.16</td><td>$10,813.58</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>Even if QCOM grows only as expected for the next decade, it could potentially deliver over 4X inflation-adjusted returns, far more than BABA (ignoring valuation, which cancels out over time).</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>Ratio Inflation And Inflation-Adjusted QCOM vs. BABA consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>1.25</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>1.57</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>1.97</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>2.47</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>QCOM has the potential to beat BABA&#39;s returns by 60% returns over the next decade, and if it can keep growing at the expected rate for longer, potentially 2.5X greater returns over the next 20 years.</p><ul><li>with a far more attractive risk profile</li></ul><p>Qualcomm Investment Decision Tool<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14d55badfa1e9b2743953b97fe738a91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)</p><p>QCOM is potentially a good hyper-dividend growth opportunity for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.</p><ul><li>32% discount to fair value Vs. 8% S&amp;P = 24% better valuation</li><li>2.5% safe yield vs. 1.8% S&amp;P (50% higher and growing 2X as fast)</li><li><b>70% higher annual long-term return potential</b></li><li>over 2X higher risk-adjusted expected returns</li><li>50% more consensus 5-year income</li></ul><h2>Bottom Line: Alibaba Is Dirt Cheap But So Are These Two Faster-Growing Dividend Blue-Chips</h2><p>BABA has a lot of growth potential, being the dominant name in digital commerce in the world&#39;s most populace country.</p><p>But just because China is a land of potential opportunity doesn&#39;t mean that investors necessarily profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3997ec9df963d90d00dbe458ba6bb30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Marketwatch</p><p>In October 2007, the Shanghai composite index peaked at 5,772, in the same month as the US stock market did.</p><p>But since then, despite incredible economic growth in China, and companies like BABA becoming titans, investors are down 46%.</p><ul><li>-60% adjusted for inflation</li><li>-5.9% annual inflation-adjusted returns for investors in China for the last 15 years</li></ul><p>Total Returns Since October 2014<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fde28fb36236fd6e6e854afb0744a9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</p><p>Alibaba, purely due to regulatory risk, has delivered negative 1.5% annual returns over the last eight years.</p><p>Adjusting for inflation, things look even worse.</p><p>Inflation-Adjusted Returns Since October 2014</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Stock</b></td><td><b>Ticker</b></td><td><b>Inflation-Adjusted Return Since October 2014</b></td><td><b>Annual Real Return Since October 2014</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Alibaba</b></td><td><b>BABA</b></td><td><b>-29%</b></td><td><b>-4.1%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Qualcomm</td><td>QCOM</td><td>61%</td><td>6.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>QQQM</td><td>139%</td><td>11.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Lowe&#39;s</td><td>LOW</td><td>224%</td><td>15.8%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>Granted 8 years ending in a bear market is only 63% statistically significant, but the point is that Alibaba represents a bargain basement growth stock whose growth isn&#39;t all that impressive.</p><p>Not when there are 22 dividend aristocrats alone with faster growth rates, including Lowe, &#39;s a very low-risk Ultra SWAN quality dividend king growing at 20%.</p><p>Qualcomm is growing 25% faster than BABA, offers an attractive 2.5% yield, and has a growth runway that spans decades.</p><p>In a bear market, most things go on sale. Right now, BABA is a screaming buy...in a vacuum.</p><p>But 74% of the Dividend Kings Master List is trading at fair value or better, including 17 companies that are 52% or more historically undervalued.</p><p>When faced with such a target-rich blue-chip bargain-hunting environment, I can&#39;t recommend Alibaba to any but the most risk-tolerant investors (and a 1% or less max risk cap rec).</p><p>Yes, BABA could quadruple in the next five years. And yes, it&#39;s growth prospects might continue to improve. But they likely won&#39;t improve to the 25% CAGR they were before the regulatory crackdown began.</p><p>In the meantime, faster-growing dividend blue-chip bargains like LOW and QCOM are firing on all cylinders and don&#39;t represent turnaround stories.</p><p>They don&#39;t come with the high property right risk that BABA has always had and always will.</p><p>And most importantly, over the long-term, they offer far better return potential, and a lot more income while letting you sleep far better at night.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Is Dirt Cheap But So Are These 2 Faster-Growing Dividend Blue Chips</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Is Dirt Cheap But So Are These 2 Faster-Growing Dividend Blue Chips\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-30 08:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543374-alibaba-is-dirt-cheap-but-so-are-these-2-faster-growing-dividend-blue-chips><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThis bear market has created a sea of blue-chip bargains for smart long-term investors, including some of the world's best growth stocks.Alibaba's growth outlook has risen by 50% in the last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543374-alibaba-is-dirt-cheap-but-so-are-these-2-faster-growing-dividend-blue-chips\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","LOW":"劳氏","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543374-alibaba-is-dirt-cheap-but-so-are-these-2-faster-growing-dividend-blue-chips","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140060156","content_text":"SummaryThis bear market has created a sea of blue-chip bargains for smart long-term investors, including some of the world's best growth stocks.Alibaba's growth outlook has risen by 50% in the last few months, but only to 12.8%. That's not that impressive given the highly speculative nature of this high risk investment.Alibaba is now 52% historically undervalued and could potentially quadruple in the next five years. I recommend a 1% or smaller max position sizing, given the risk profile.LOW is a hyper-growth very low risk Ultra SWAN quality dividend king growing at 20%, trading at a 34% discount. LOW could triple in five years.QCOM is a hyper-growth low risk Ultra SWAN tech titan growing at 15.4%, trading at 7.9X cash-adjusted earnings that could triple in five years. Both LOW and QCOM are expected to deliver superior income and long-term returns, with less risk than BABA, making them superior alternatives for bear market bargain hunters today.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Kings get exclusive access to our model portfolio.It's raining blue-chip bargains everywhere you look! You can't swing a dead cat without hitting a world-beater blue-chip that's getting crushed by the relentless increase in interest rates.YchartsSince its August 16th high, the market is down 15%, the Nasdaq17%, and many popular growth stocks are down 20% or more. Hope for a Fed pivot? My, oh, my, what a difference just five weeks makes.CME GroupThe bond market is now pricing in another mega hike in November, a 50 basis point increase in December, and 25 in February and March. That's a 4.75% peak rate that the Fed says it doesn't plan to start cutting until potentially October...of 2024. How much lower could the market fall?According to Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Bridgewater, and Carl Icahn, the market will likely bottom at -35% to -40% from record highs if we get a recession in 2023. How much further is that from our -24% levels now?S&P Correction WatchAll-Time High4,818.62Current$3,656.41Distance From High24.12%Pullback Level4577.69Correction Level4336.76-15% Correction Level (Historically Average Correction Bottom)4095.83Bear Market Level (-20%)3854.90-25% Bear Market3613.97-30% Bear Market3373.03-35% Bear Market3132.10-40% Bear Market2891.17Distance To Pullback-19.1%Distance To Correction-18.6%Distance To 15% Correction-12.0%Distance To Bear Market-5.43%Distance To -25% Bear Market1.2%Distance To -30% Bear Market7.8%Distance To -35% Bear Market (Average Historical Recessionary Bear Market Low -36%)14.3%Distance To -40% Bear Market20.9%Decline To Historical Fair Value-9.1%(Source: Dividend Kings S&P 500 Valuation & Total Return Tool)Higher for longer is the order of the day, and that's a good thing. Stocks potentially falling another 14% to 21% is also a good thing.I know what you're thinking. \"Are you high?! How can this possibly be a good thing?!\"According to Societe Generale and UBS, if the Fed gives investors what they want right now, an early pivot and rate cuts, here's what might be coming in the next decade.This Is What Stagflation Hell Looks Like:inflation doesn't subsideinflation expectations start risinga decade of spiraling inflationseveral severe recessionsdouble-digit unemploymentmuch higher interest rates for 10 yearsstocks bottom in 2 to 3 years...at -48% to -53%as much as 37% lower than current levelsa lost decade for the S&P 500Do you still want the Fed to pivot? Or do you want it to finish the job and kill inflation now? Do you want six to 12 months of pain followed by a 4X to 5X decade-long gain in stocks? Or would you prefer a lost decade?Do you know the last time the Fed pivoted early and gave investors what they thought they wanted?Fed Chairman Arthur Burns in 1973 lost his nerve and started cutting rates early, before inflation was defeated:we ended up with a decade of stagflation helltwo severe recessions11% unemploymenta 54% stock market crashthe Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat for 16 yearsThe only thing worse than the Fed pivoting is the Fed not finishing the job right now.OK, so that's why higher rates are good for all of us in the long-term. And, of course, the next six to 12 months (how long Morgan Stanley things it will take to bottom) could be a golden age of blue-chip bargain hunting.And that brings me to today's topic, a Dividend Kings' member request for an update on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA).What do current and potential investors in BABA want to know? Three things mainly.What are BABA's growth prospects in the future?Is BABA a good deal today? Should I buy it?What kind of returns can I realistically make?Let's answer those questions, but then answer the 4th and most important question of all?4. What superior alternatives to BABA can I buy that are likely to earn me higher returns with less risk?Question One: What Are Alibaba's Growth Prospects Today?Last I updated BABA; its growth outlook had fallen to 8.4%. That's a lot of fundamental risks to take on for a non-dividend growth stock without the growth.FactSet Research TerminalThe good news is that BABA's growth outlook has improved by about 50% in the last few months to nearly 13% CAGR. It's once more a growth stock.In fact, BABA's margins are once more expected to start growing again in the coming years.Alibaba Profit Margin Consensus ForecastYearFCF MarginEBITDA MarginEBIT (Operating) MarginNet MarginReturn On Capital ExpansionReturn On Capital Forecast202115.3%20.5%9.1%10.3%2.2020229.5%18.1%9.9%9.1%TTM ROC40.91%20239.3%18.5%10.9%10.5%Latest ROC54.66%20249.9%19.0%12.1%11.0%2027 ROC89.85%202514.6%20.2%13.8%13.4%2027 ROC120.05%2026NA25.9%18.8%16.3%Average104.95%2027NA29.0%21.8%18.3%Industry Median10.58%2028NANANANABABA/Industry Median9.92Annualized Growth 2022-2027-1.10%5.95%15.58%10.00%Vs. S&P7.19(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)BABA's Free cash flow margins aren't expected to improve much due to high growth spending. But it's other margins are expected to improve at an impressive rate.And its return on capital, annual pre-tax profit/the cost of running the business are expected to more than double in the next few years, to 105%. That's 10X more than its industry peers and over 7X that of the S&P 500.Alibaba Medium-Term Growth Consensus ForecastYearSalesFree Cash FlowEBITDAEBIT (Operating Income)Net Income2021$122,778$18,726$25,208$11,212$12,6692022$127,647$12,183$23,151$12,653$11,6702023$138,519$12,816$25,571$15,133$14,5652024$155,150$15,435$29,442$18,763$17,1362025$170,768$24,914$34,449$23,604$22,8712026$177,928NA$46,051$33,492$28,9142027$188,949NA$54,875$41,137$34,540Annualized Growth 2021-20277.45%7.40%13.84%24.19%18.19%Cumulative 2022-2025$592,084$65,348$112,613$70,153$66,242(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)As a result, modest 7% to 8% sales growth is expected to translate into 18% growth in net income and 24% growth in operating income.Mind you, the days of BABA growing at its former 30% to 55% rates are likely done for good, thanks to stricter regulations and much higher compliance costs.including \"voluntary\" charitable contributions that aren't really voluntarySo that brings us to the next question, what is BABA worth today with a 50% better long-term growth outlook? And after a 15% decline in the last month, is it potentially worth buying today?Question Two: Is Alibaba A Good Deal Today?MetricHistorical Fair Value Multiples (6-Years)2021202220232024202512-Month Forward Fair ValueEarnings23.46$196.59$169.15$180.17$203.63$249.15Average$196.59$169.15$180.17$203.63$249.15$177.63Current Price$79.03Discount To Fair Value59.80%53.28%56.14%61.19%68.28%55.51%Upside To Fair Value148.76%114.03%127.98%157.67%215.25%124.76%2022 P/E2023 P/E2022 Weighted EPS2023 Weighted EPS12-Month Forward OCF12-Month Average Fair Value Forward P/ECurrent Forward P/E$7.21$7.68$1.66$5.91$7.5723.510.4(Source: DK Research Terminal, FAST Graphs)BABA growing at the approximate rate analysts expect in the future is worth about 23.5X earnings, and today it trades at just 10.4X earnings.7.3X cash-adjusted earningsThis is a 56% historical discount and a speculative anti-bubble blue-chip valuation.BABA is pricing in approximately -2.4% CAGR growthAnalyst Median 12-Month Price TargetMorningstar Fair Value Estimate$145.84 (12.4 P/E)$179.00 (23.6 P/E)Discount To Price Target (Not A Fair Value Estimate)Discount To Fair Value45.84%55.88%Upside To Price TargetUpside To Fair Value84.65%126.64%(Source: FactSet Research, Morningstar)Analysts expect BABA to be trading at 12.4X earnings in 12 months and deliver a potential 85% gain.Morningstar's discounted cash flow model agrees with my model that BABA is worth about 24X earnings and is 56% undervalued.Ok, BABA is unquestionably cheap, at least based on consensus estimates (which it's been missing for over a year).But given BABA's higher risk profile than most growth tech stocks, is it a good buy on a risk-adjusted basis? Is the margin of safety high enough to compensate for the very high-risk profile discussed in detail in this article?Alibaba's Thesis Is Close To Breaking: 5 Things Investors Need To KnowRatingMargin Of Safety For High Risk Highly Speculative 9/13 Above-Average Quality Companies2022 Fair Value Price2023 Fair Value Price12-Month Forward Fair ValuePotentially Reasonable Buy0%$169.15$180.17$177.63Potentially Good Buy35%$109.95$117.11$115.46Potentially Strong Buy45%$93.03$99.10$97.70Potentially Very Strong Highly Speculative Buy55%$49.48$81.08$79.93Potentially Ultra-Value Buy65%$59.20$63.06$62.17Currently$78.9853.31%56.16%55.54%Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)114.16%128.12%124.90%(Source: DK Research Terminal)Alibaba is a high-risk, highly speculative growth stock with a 1% OR LESS max risk cap recommendation.It's risk profile is so extreme that it takes a 35% margin of safety for it to be a potentially highly speculative good buy. But a 56% margin does make it a POTENTIALLY highly speculative, very strong buy IF, and only if you're comfortable with its complex and extreme risk profile.including regulatory riskand a high degree of uncertainty surrounding its long-term growth prospectsWhat does a 56% margin of safety potentially mean for short and long-term return potential? Some very impressive potential returns.Question Three: What Kind Of Returns Can I Expect From Alibaba In The Future?Alibaba 2025 Consensus Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)A 56% margin of safety means that BABA has the potential to nearly triple in the next three years, delivering potentially Buffett-like 51% annual returns.Alibaba 2028 Consensus Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)An anti-bubble valuation means that BABA could potentially quadruple over the next few years, delivering Buffett-like 29% CAGR total returns.-8% CAGR to 30% CAGR is the 5-year consensus return potential rangehigh growth uncertaintyNow compare that to the S&P 500.S&P 500 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)BABA offers more than 6X the return potential of the S&P 500 over the next three yearsS&P 500 2027 Consensus Total Return PotentialYearUpside Potential By End of That YearConsensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That YearProbability-Weighted Return (Annualized)Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns202764.89%10.52%7.89%5.57%(Source: DK S&P 500 Valuation & Total Return Tool)Over the next five years, analysts expect 10.5% annual returns from the S&P 500.BABA offers 5X the return potential of the S&P 500So does that mean BABA is a must-buy stock right now? No, because long-term, the return potential is a far more modest 12.8% CAGR.Just look at all the lower-risk alternatives expected to outperform BABA in the coming decades.Dividend Champions Expected To Outperform Alibaba Over The Long-TermDividend Kings Zen Research TerminalDividend Kings Zen Research TerminalDividend Kings Zen Research TerminalThese are 22 dividend champions (25+ year dividend growth streak) companies that combined offer:3.1% very safe yielda 27% discount to fair valuea 14.9 P/E12.4% CAGR growth consensus15.5% CAGR long-term total return potential.Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return22 Dividend Champion Alibaba Alternatives3.1%12.4%15.5%10.9%8.6%8.42.27Alibaba0.0%12.8%12.8%9.0%6.7%10.81.91Nasdaq0.9%11.8%12.7%8.9%6.6%10.91.89High-Yield (SCHD)3.4%8.7%12.1%8.5%6.2%11.71.82Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.6%11.2%7.8%5.5%13.01.71S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.61.62(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)Yes, Alibaba is expected to outperform most investment strategies slightly.But which would help you sleep better at night in a potential recession?Owning 22 fast-growing dividend champions? The entire Nasdaq (the best dividend growth ETF of all time)? Or Alibaba?Alibaba's fundamental risk is 0.6% over the next 30 years.A+ stable credit rating from all three agenciesBut the fundamental risk from 22 dividend champions? That's effectively zero, and it's also zero for the Nasdaq 100.the chance of all 22 to 100 companies going to zero is very close to zeroQuestion Four: What Are Potentially Superior Alternatives To Alibaba I Should Buy Instead?We've already seen how there are nearly two dozen superior fast-growing dividend alternatives to Alibaba, including those with stronger credit ratings, lower fundamental risk, and superior return potential.Here are two of my favorite hyper-growth dividend blue-chip alternatives to BABA.Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW): As Close To God's Own Dividend King As Exists On Wall StreetFurther ReadingLowe's: This Buffett-Style Dividend Aristocrat Could Potentially Triple In 5 Yearsa full deep dive look at LOW's investment thesis, growth prospects, risk profile, valuation, and total return potentialReasons To Potentially Buy Lowe's TodayMetricLowesQuality100% 13/13 Ultra SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) Dividend KingRisk RatingVery Low RiskDK Master List Quality Ranking (Out Of 500 Companies)1Quality Percentile100%Dividend Growth Streak (Years)60Dividend Yield2.3%Dividend Safety Score100%Average Recession Dividend Cut Risk0.5%Severe Recession Dividend Cut Risk1.00%S&P Credit RatingBBB+ Stable30-Year Bankruptcy Risk5%Consensus LT Risk-Management Industry Percentile82% Very GoodFair Value$283.65Current Price$186.02Discount To Fair Value34%DK RatingPotentially Very Strong BuyPE13.0Cash-Adjusted PE12.7Growth Priced In8.4%Historical PE Range19 to 21LT Growth Consensus/Management Guidance20.10%PEG Ratio0.63 (hyper-growth at a wonderful price)5-year consensus total return potential18% to 24% CAGRBase Case 5-year consensus return potential25% CAGR (4X better than the S&P 500)Consensus 12-month total return forecast34%Fundamentally Justified 12-Month Return Potential55%LT Consensus Total Return Potential22.4%Inflation-Adjusted Consensus LT Return Potential20.2%Consensus 10-Year Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Potential (Ignoring Valuation)6.29LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return14.90%LT Risk-And Inflation-Adjusted Return Potential12.68%Conservative Years To Double5.68(Source: Dividend Kings Zen Research Terminal)LOW is as close to a perfect quality company as can exist on Wall Street, is growing at 20%, and yet is trading at 13X earnings.It's 34% undervalued and just 1% above its Ultra Value Buffett-style \"fat pitch\" price.Lowe's 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)If Lowe's grows as expected and returns to historical mid-range market-determined fair value, it could deliver almost 80% total returns by January 2025, or Buffett-like 28% annual returns.Lowe's 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)If Lowe's grows as expected and returns to historical fair value, it could deliver 227% total returns, or 25% annually, over the coming five years.Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLowe's2.3%20.1%22.4%15.7%13.4%5.43.51Alibaba0.0%12.8%12.8%9.0%6.7%10.81.91Nasdaq0.9%11.8%12.7%8.9%6.6%10.91.89Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.80%12.4%8.7%6.4%11.31.86Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.6%11.2%7.8%5.5%13.01.71S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.61.62(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)LOW offers nearly 2X the long-term annual return potential of BABA, from a hyper-growth Ultra SWAN dividend king, no less.Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Total Return Potential: $1,000 Initial InvestmentTime Frame (Years)8% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500 Consensus10.5% Inflation-Adjusted BABA Consensus20.1% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted LOW ConsensusDifference Between Inflation-Adjusted LOW Consensus And BABA Consensus5$1,470.01$1,648.19$2,499.75$851.5510$2,160.92$2,716.54$6,248.73$3,532.1915$3,176.58$4,477.38$15,620.23$11,142.8620$4,669.60$7,379.58$39,046.61$31,667.03(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)Even if LOW's grows only as expected for the next decade it could potentially deliver over 6X inflation-adjusted returns, far more than BABA (ignoring valuation, which cancels out over time).Time Frame (Years)Ratio Inflation And Inflation-Adjusted LOW vs. BABA consensus51.52102.30153.49205.29(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)Lowe's has the potential to more than double BABA's returns over the next decade, and if it can keep growing at the expected rate for longer, potentially more than 5X greater returns over the next 20 years.LOW Corp Investment Decision ToolDK(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)LOW is potentially a good hyper-growth dividend king opportunity for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.34% discount to fair value Vs. 8% S&P = 26% better valuation2.3% safe yield vs. 1.8% S&P (33% higher and growing 2.5X as fast)120% higher annual long-term return potentialover 2X higher risk-adjusted expected returns50% more consensus 5-year incomeQUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM): Hyper-Dividend Growth At A Wonderful PriceFurther ReadingQualcomm: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Pricea full deep dive look at LOW's investment thesis, growth prospects, risk profile, valuation, and total return potentialReasons To Potentially Buy Qualcomm TodayMetricQualcommQuality93% 13/13 Ultra SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) Chip MakerRisk RatingLow RiskDK Master List Quality Ranking (Out Of 500 Companies)44Quality Percentile91%Dividend Growth Streak (Years)18Dividend Yield2.5%Dividend Safety Score93%Average Recession Dividend Cut Risk0.5%Severe Recession Dividend Cut Risk1.35%S&P Credit RatingA Stable30-Year Bankruptcy Risk1%Consensus LT Risk-Management Industry Percentile78% Good, Bordering On Very GoodFair Value$175.50Current Price$119.74Discount To Fair Value32%DK RatingPotentially Very Strong BuyP/E9.2Cash-Adjusted P/E7.9 (anti-bubble blue-chip)Growth Priced In-1.2% CAGRHistorical PE Range16 to 17.5LT Growth Consensus/Management Guidance15.40%PEG Ratio0.51 (hyper-growth at a wonderful price)5-year consensus total return potential15% to 24% CAGRBase Case 5-year consensus return potential23% CAGR (3X better than the S&P 500)Consensus 12-month total return forecast63%Fundamentally Justified 12-Month Return Potential49%LT Consensus Total Return Potential17.9%Inflation-Adjusted Consensus LT Return Potential15.7%Consensus 10-Year Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Potential (Ignoring Valuation)4.29LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return12.45%LT Risk-And Inflation-Adjusted Return Potential10.23%Conservative Years To Double7.03 Vs. 15.2 S&P 500(Source: Dividend Kings Zen Research Terminal)QCOM is trading at 7.9X cash-adjusted earnings, a BABA-like valuation. Except it's growing faster and pays a very safe and attractive dividend.0.51 PEG is incredibly attractiveAnalysts think QCOM will deliver 63% returns in the next year, and a 50% gain would be justified by its fundamentals.QCOM's conservative time to double is 7 years, half that of the S&P 500.adjust consensus long-term return potential for the probability of the company not growing as expectedor even going bankruptand inflationconservatively QCOM could double your inflation-adjusted wealth in 7 yearsand quadruple it in 14 yearsQualcomm 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)If QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical fair value, it could nearly double by September 2024, delivering Buffett-like 39% annual total returns.Qualcomm 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)If QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical fair value, it could triple in five years, delivering Buffett-like 25% annual total returns.But remember that what matters more than incredible medium-term returns are long-term returns that could change your life.Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLowe's2.3%20.1%22.4%15.7%13.4%5.43.51Qualcomm2.5%15.4%17.9%12.5%10.2%7.02.65Alibaba0.0%12.8%12.8%9.0%6.7%10.81.91Nasdaq0.9%11.8%12.7%8.9%6.6%10.91.89Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.80%12.4%8.7%6.4%11.31.86Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.6%11.2%7.8%5.5%13.01.71S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.61.62(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)QCOM is expected to potentially run circles around almost every investment strategy, including the Nasdaq and BABA.Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Total Return Potential: $1,000 Initial InvestmentTime Frame (Years)8% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500 Consensus10.5% Inflation-Adjusted BABA Consensus15.6% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted QCOM ConsensusDifference Between Inflation-Adjusted QCOM Consensus And BABA Consensus5$1,470.01$1,648.19$2,065.27$417.0810$2,160.92$2,716.54$4,265.34$1,548.8115$3,176.58$4,477.38$8,809.09$4,331.7120$4,669.60$7,379.58$18,193.16$10,813.58(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)Even if QCOM grows only as expected for the next decade, it could potentially deliver over 4X inflation-adjusted returns, far more than BABA (ignoring valuation, which cancels out over time).Time Frame (Years)Ratio Inflation And Inflation-Adjusted QCOM vs. BABA consensus51.25101.57151.97202.47(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)QCOM has the potential to beat BABA's returns by 60% returns over the next decade, and if it can keep growing at the expected rate for longer, potentially 2.5X greater returns over the next 20 years.with a far more attractive risk profileQualcomm Investment Decision ToolDK(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)QCOM is potentially a good hyper-dividend growth opportunity for anyone comfortable with its risk profile.32% discount to fair value Vs. 8% S&P = 24% better valuation2.5% safe yield vs. 1.8% S&P (50% higher and growing 2X as fast)70% higher annual long-term return potentialover 2X higher risk-adjusted expected returns50% more consensus 5-year incomeBottom Line: Alibaba Is Dirt Cheap But So Are These Two Faster-Growing Dividend Blue-ChipsBABA has a lot of growth potential, being the dominant name in digital commerce in the world's most populace country.But just because China is a land of potential opportunity doesn't mean that investors necessarily profit.MarketwatchIn October 2007, the Shanghai composite index peaked at 5,772, in the same month as the US stock market did.But since then, despite incredible economic growth in China, and companies like BABA becoming titans, investors are down 46%.-60% adjusted for inflation-5.9% annual inflation-adjusted returns for investors in China for the last 15 yearsTotal Returns Since October 2014(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)Alibaba, purely due to regulatory risk, has delivered negative 1.5% annual returns over the last eight years.Adjusting for inflation, things look even worse.Inflation-Adjusted Returns Since October 2014StockTickerInflation-Adjusted Return Since October 2014Annual Real Return Since October 2014AlibabaBABA-29%-4.1%QualcommQCOM61%6.4%NasdaqQQQM139%11.5%Lowe'sLOW224%15.8%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)Granted 8 years ending in a bear market is only 63% statistically significant, but the point is that Alibaba represents a bargain basement growth stock whose growth isn't all that impressive.Not when there are 22 dividend aristocrats alone with faster growth rates, including Lowe, 's a very low-risk Ultra SWAN quality dividend king growing at 20%.Qualcomm is growing 25% faster than BABA, offers an attractive 2.5% yield, and has a growth runway that spans decades.In a bear market, most things go on sale. Right now, BABA is a screaming buy...in a vacuum.But 74% of the Dividend Kings Master List is trading at fair value or better, including 17 companies that are 52% or more historically undervalued.When faced with such a target-rich blue-chip bargain-hunting environment, I can't recommend Alibaba to any but the most risk-tolerant investors (and a 1% or less max risk cap rec).Yes, BABA could quadruple in the next five years. And yes, it's growth prospects might continue to improve. But they likely won't improve to the 25% CAGR they were before the regulatory crackdown began.In the meantime, faster-growing dividend blue-chip bargains like LOW and QCOM are firing on all cylinders and don't represent turnaround stories.They don't come with the high property right risk that BABA has always had and always will.And most importantly, over the long-term, they offer far better return potential, and a lot more income while letting you sleep far better at night.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}