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- SmartluSmartlu
  ·2022-07-18
  It should be a good buy after splits
  Is Alphabet A Buy After 20-For-1 Stock Split?
  Alphabet is trying to widen its investment appeal through a stock splitCompany’s business fundamenta
  Is Alphabet A Buy After 20-For-1 Stock Split?
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- SmartluSmartlu
  ·2022-07-08
  Great sharing
  Why Recession Now Is Better Than Recession Later
  Economists and pundits who expect recession but not until 2023 may soon be surprised to find it alre
  Why Recession Now Is Better Than Recession Later
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should be a good buy after splits&nbsp;","listText":"It should be a good buy after splits&nbsp;","text":"It should be a good buy after splits","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075957712","repostId":"1185408414","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185408414","pubTimestamp":1658134447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185408414?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 16:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Alphabet A Buy After 20-For-1 Stock Split?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185408414","media":"Investing.com","summary":"Alphabet is trying to widen its investment appeal through a stock splitCompany’s business fundamenta","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Alphabet is trying to widen its investment appeal through a stock split</li><li>Company’s business fundamentals matter most when making a buying decision</li><li>Google one of most-favored mega-cap tech stocks on Wall Street</li></ul><p>Starting this week, you won’t need to spend more than $2,000 to buy a share of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL). The parent of the Google search engine will complete a 20-for-1 stock split by the close next Friday in the form of a one-time special stock dividend, aiming to draw a wider audience for its shares.</p><p>Alphabet, like other mega-cap tech companies that saw their share prices soaring during the past decade, has been at a disadvantage, as its stock became expensive for retail investors. For mom-and-pop traders, a lower stock price makes it easier to buy shares rather than purchase fractional stocks through their brokerage firms.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a26d17b68415066444a8d87b6d0d504\" tg-width=\"1724\" tg-height=\"1462\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Investing.com</span></p><p>Alphabet’s 20-for-1 split would reduce the price of Class A shares to roughly $111, based on Friday’s trading price of $2,228.80.</p><p>Alphabet is one of the last large mega-cap companies to do its stock splits in the current wave. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) all have already completed their splits during the past two years.</p><p>Technically speaking, stock splits don’t change the value of a company or its investors’ holdings. However, the split decision illustrates the growing influence of retail investors on the market in modern times and the companies’ desire to make their investment appeal wider.</p><p>That said, investors shouldn’t make their investment decisions based on stock splits. Instead, the company’s business fundamentals and its valuation matter the most. On that account, Google stock is an attractive long-term buy.</p><p><b>20% Plunge In Shares</b></p><p>Its stock, which has dropped more than 20% this year amid a widespread sell-off in tech shares, is in a much better position to withstand a looming recession that could force companies to reduce their digital ad spending, depressing Alphabet’s revenues.</p><p>According to Google’s Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat, the second-quarter results will be impacted by the Russian war in Ukraine, a worsening macro environment, tougher comparisons against pandemic highs and changing foreign exchange rates.</p><p>Ahead of the earnings announcement later this month, some equity analysts have lowered estimates for YouTube sales in part to reflect the heightened competition from ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok video app. Google is also facing a tougher regulatory environment in Europe. Google’s second-largest business line, its network system that runs ads elsewhere on the web, was likely limited by new regulations in Europe that restricted ad targeting.</p><p>Still, the company&#39;s diverse portfolio and its dominant position in the digital ad market make it hard to ignore.</p><p>Google’s search advertising business, the company’s main revenue driver, gained 24% in Q1, while its Cloud unit sales increased 44%, showing that the company’s efforts to catch up to market leaders  – Amazon.com and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) –  are paying off.</p><p>This strength in Google’s business model is the main reason that analysts on Wall Street overwhelmingly support buying the stock at these levels. In an Investing.com survey of 52 analysts, 50 have an “outperform” rating on the stock, with a 12-month consensus price target that implies about 38% upside.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c793527cb6fe4b37d2fcffffec808ee\" tg-width=\"1350\" tg-height=\"868\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Investing.com</span></p><p>In a recent note, Bank of America said:</p><blockquote>“Alphabet has a more stable business, artificial intelligence (AI)/ machine learning (ML) advantages across the product stack, significant expense flexibility, a [management] team doing more for shareholders under new CEO (i.e. buybacks) and potential valuation support.”</blockquote><p><b>Bottom Line</b></p><p>Alphabet’s stock split decision will broaden the company’s appeal among retail investors and make a headway in the stock’s potential entry into the prestigious Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition, Alphabet has a significant upside due to growth momentum in its cloud and other units.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Alphabet A Buy After 20-For-1 Stock Split?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Alphabet A Buy After 20-For-1 Stock Split?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-18 16:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investing.com/analysis/is-alphabet-a-buy-after-20for1-stock-split-200627176><strong>Investing.com</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alphabet is trying to widen its investment appeal through a stock splitCompany’s business fundamentals matter most when making a buying decisionGoogle one of most-favored mega-cap tech stocks on Wall ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/is-alphabet-a-buy-after-20for1-stock-split-200627176\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/is-alphabet-a-buy-after-20for1-stock-split-200627176","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185408414","content_text":"Alphabet is trying to widen its investment appeal through a stock splitCompany’s business fundamentals matter most when making a buying decisionGoogle one of most-favored mega-cap tech stocks on Wall StreetStarting this week, you won’t need to spend more than $2,000 to buy a share of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL). The parent of the Google search engine will complete a 20-for-1 stock split by the close next Friday in the form of a one-time special stock dividend, aiming to draw a wider audience for its shares.Alphabet, like other mega-cap tech companies that saw their share prices soaring during the past decade, has been at a disadvantage, as its stock became expensive for retail investors. For mom-and-pop traders, a lower stock price makes it easier to buy shares rather than purchase fractional stocks through their brokerage firms.Source: Investing.comAlphabet’s 20-for-1 split would reduce the price of Class A shares to roughly $111, based on Friday’s trading price of $2,228.80.Alphabet is one of the last large mega-cap companies to do its stock splits in the current wave. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) all have already completed their splits during the past two years.Technically speaking, stock splits don’t change the value of a company or its investors’ holdings. However, the split decision illustrates the growing influence of retail investors on the market in modern times and the companies’ desire to make their investment appeal wider.That said, investors shouldn’t make their investment decisions based on stock splits. Instead, the company’s business fundamentals and its valuation matter the most. On that account, Google stock is an attractive long-term buy.20% Plunge In SharesIts stock, which has dropped more than 20% this year amid a widespread sell-off in tech shares, is in a much better position to withstand a looming recession that could force companies to reduce their digital ad spending, depressing Alphabet’s revenues.According to Google’s Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat, the second-quarter results will be impacted by the Russian war in Ukraine, a worsening macro environment, tougher comparisons against pandemic highs and changing foreign exchange rates.Ahead of the earnings announcement later this month, some equity analysts have lowered estimates for YouTube sales in part to reflect the heightened competition from ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok video app. Google is also facing a tougher regulatory environment in Europe. Google’s second-largest business line, its network system that runs ads elsewhere on the web, was likely limited by new regulations in Europe that restricted ad targeting.Still, the company's diverse portfolio and its dominant position in the digital ad market make it hard to ignore.Google’s search advertising business, the company’s main revenue driver, gained 24% in Q1, while its Cloud unit sales increased 44%, showing that the company’s efforts to catch up to market leaders  – Amazon.com and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) –  are paying off.This strength in Google’s business model is the main reason that analysts on Wall Street overwhelmingly support buying the stock at these levels. In an Investing.com survey of 52 analysts, 50 have an “outperform” rating on the stock, with a 12-month consensus price target that implies about 38% upside.Source: Investing.comIn a recent note, Bank of America said:“Alphabet has a more stable business, artificial intelligence (AI)/ machine learning (ML) advantages across the product stack, significant expense flexibility, a [management] team doing more for shareholders under new CEO (i.e. buybacks) and potential valuation support.”Bottom LineAlphabet’s stock split decision will broaden the company’s appeal among retail investors and make a headway in the stock’s potential entry into the prestigious Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition, Alphabet has a significant upside due to growth momentum in its cloud and other units.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073305123,"gmtCreate":1657276366462,"gmtModify":1676535984022,"author":{"id":"4097472842151920","authorId":"4097472842151920","name":"Smartlu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf97e05ce30709afdb03fbd3f10a87c0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097472842151920","authorIdStr":"4097472842151920"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Great sharing&nbsp;","text":"Great sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073305123","repostId":"1114110216","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114110216","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1657268932,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114110216?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 16:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Recession Now Is Better Than Recession Later","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114110216","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Economists and pundits who expect recession but not until 2023 may soon be surprised to find it alre","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Economists and pundits who expect recession but not until 2023 may soon be surprised to find it already at our doorstep.</p><p>That’s a big deal. It matters whether a recession comes sooner or later, for the following reasons.</p><p>First, despite large setbacks in global equity and credit markets this year, investors are ill-prepared for an imminent contraction in economic activity. Analysts’ expectations for 2022 corporate profits growth over the remainder of this year are absurdly high. Valuations are not recession-proof. Investors have not fully discounted probable revenue and earnings disappointments before year-end 2022.</p><p>Second, barring recurring shocks or an unlikely persistence of inflation, an earlier recession implies an earlier recovery, an earlier restoration of risk appetite, and an earlier rebound in corporate profitability. While timing short-term market ups and downs is a fool’s errand, misjudging the cycle altogether is a lost opportunity. Recession timing matters for investors.</p><p>Third, the sooner recession arrives, the sooner inflation pressures will dissipate, and the less central banks will have to tighten. That, too, is ultimately a source of investor opportunity.</p><p>So, why might a recession arrive this year? Simply put, that is what the data tell us. Globally, consumer expenditures are slowing. Spending booms facilitated by transfer payments, job gains, and economic reopening are fading under pressure of rising prices and falling real wages. Business capital expenditures are tailing off even faster. Fiscal policy is restrictive. Sticker shock is curbing the appetite for consumer durables like autos and housing.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s July 1 GDPNow report, the U.S. economy probably contracted -2.1% in the just-concluded second quarter. That follows a -1.6% decline in gross domestic product in the first quarter. The first-quarter contraction was mostly about rising imports and falling inventories, rather than weakness of final demand. In contrast, the second-quarter slump is all about a spending slowdown.</p><p>Historically U.S. recessions have followed a tightening of financial conditions, such as rising real interest rates, courtesy of tighter monetary policy. Or they ensue from falling asset prices, negative wealth effects, and a higher cost of capital. That means that recessions come, roughly, 18 months after central banks tighten policy.</p><p>That is the historical norm, but it feels like an odd way to analyze (and forecast) today’s business cycle. The slowdown in demand that is now unfolding is not primarily the result of monetary policy restraint, nor does it mainly reflect falling asset prices.</p><p>Rather, the main source of today’s flagging consumer and business spending is high prices, coupled with the shortages of physical and labor inputs that have pushed prices higher. Importantly, wages are not keeping up with prices. In recent months, average real hourly earnings in the U.S. have fallen close to 3% annually. Across industries, shortages of material and labor inputs are resulting in soaring prices and a reduced willingness of companies to spend.</p><p>U.S. consumer and CEO confidence measures are at all-time lows, which is odd given near-record unemployment, but more understandable against the backdrop of four-decade highs in inflation.</p><p>In short, economists, pundits, and investors are correct to anticipate recession, but they are using the wrong approach to anticipate its arrival. Recession is probable not because monetary policy will become restrictive by this time next year, but because purchasing power is crumbling today. Add in falling household wealth and a rising cost of capital for companies and the scene is set for demand to slow to stall speed well before the Federal Reserve or other central bank policies become genuinely restrictive.</p><p>If that is correct, then “recession now” is vastly underappreciated by company analysts and the investors who follow them. According to FactSet, the consensus of company analysts has trimmed earnings estimates for the second-quarter U.S. S&amp;P 500 earnings season, but has increased earnings estimates for the second half of 2022. After a pedestrian 4.1% rate of earnings growth for the second quarter of this year, the consensus forecasts more than a doubling of S&amp;P 500 profits growth to 10% in the second half of this year. Based on the historical record since the late 1940s, such an earnings acceleration would be likely only if gross-domestic-product growth were accelerating. Put differently, aggregate profits growth has never been positive, much less accelerated, when the economy was moving into recession.</p><p>For worn investors hoping for a bottom in global equity markets, an imminent recession is unnerving. Nor can they take much comfort in valuations. Trailing measures of price-to-earnings ratios are in line with long-term averages. Following their large selloffs in the first half of 2022, stocks may be cheaper, but they are not yet recession-proof cheap.</p><p>But not all is gloomy. An earlier-than-expected recession would bring about relief from inflation pressures by restoring greater balance between demand and supply in the economy. By doing so, it would lessen the need for aggressive central bank tightening, thereby making the downturn shorter and shallower than would otherwise be the case.</p><p>Recession now may not be what investors were hoping to hear. It makes the coming few months even more challenging. But it is probably preferable to the alternative of recession later.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Recession Now Is Better Than Recession Later</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Recession Now Is Better Than Recession Later\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-08 16:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Economists and pundits who expect recession but not until 2023 may soon be surprised to find it already at our doorstep.</p><p>That’s a big deal. It matters whether a recession comes sooner or later, for the following reasons.</p><p>First, despite large setbacks in global equity and credit markets this year, investors are ill-prepared for an imminent contraction in economic activity. Analysts’ expectations for 2022 corporate profits growth over the remainder of this year are absurdly high. Valuations are not recession-proof. Investors have not fully discounted probable revenue and earnings disappointments before year-end 2022.</p><p>Second, barring recurring shocks or an unlikely persistence of inflation, an earlier recession implies an earlier recovery, an earlier restoration of risk appetite, and an earlier rebound in corporate profitability. While timing short-term market ups and downs is a fool’s errand, misjudging the cycle altogether is a lost opportunity. Recession timing matters for investors.</p><p>Third, the sooner recession arrives, the sooner inflation pressures will dissipate, and the less central banks will have to tighten. That, too, is ultimately a source of investor opportunity.</p><p>So, why might a recession arrive this year? Simply put, that is what the data tell us. Globally, consumer expenditures are slowing. Spending booms facilitated by transfer payments, job gains, and economic reopening are fading under pressure of rising prices and falling real wages. Business capital expenditures are tailing off even faster. Fiscal policy is restrictive. Sticker shock is curbing the appetite for consumer durables like autos and housing.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s July 1 GDPNow report, the U.S. economy probably contracted -2.1% in the just-concluded second quarter. That follows a -1.6% decline in gross domestic product in the first quarter. The first-quarter contraction was mostly about rising imports and falling inventories, rather than weakness of final demand. In contrast, the second-quarter slump is all about a spending slowdown.</p><p>Historically U.S. recessions have followed a tightening of financial conditions, such as rising real interest rates, courtesy of tighter monetary policy. Or they ensue from falling asset prices, negative wealth effects, and a higher cost of capital. That means that recessions come, roughly, 18 months after central banks tighten policy.</p><p>That is the historical norm, but it feels like an odd way to analyze (and forecast) today’s business cycle. The slowdown in demand that is now unfolding is not primarily the result of monetary policy restraint, nor does it mainly reflect falling asset prices.</p><p>Rather, the main source of today’s flagging consumer and business spending is high prices, coupled with the shortages of physical and labor inputs that have pushed prices higher. Importantly, wages are not keeping up with prices. In recent months, average real hourly earnings in the U.S. have fallen close to 3% annually. Across industries, shortages of material and labor inputs are resulting in soaring prices and a reduced willingness of companies to spend.</p><p>U.S. consumer and CEO confidence measures are at all-time lows, which is odd given near-record unemployment, but more understandable against the backdrop of four-decade highs in inflation.</p><p>In short, economists, pundits, and investors are correct to anticipate recession, but they are using the wrong approach to anticipate its arrival. Recession is probable not because monetary policy will become restrictive by this time next year, but because purchasing power is crumbling today. Add in falling household wealth and a rising cost of capital for companies and the scene is set for demand to slow to stall speed well before the Federal Reserve or other central bank policies become genuinely restrictive.</p><p>If that is correct, then “recession now” is vastly underappreciated by company analysts and the investors who follow them. According to FactSet, the consensus of company analysts has trimmed earnings estimates for the second-quarter U.S. S&amp;P 500 earnings season, but has increased earnings estimates for the second half of 2022. After a pedestrian 4.1% rate of earnings growth for the second quarter of this year, the consensus forecasts more than a doubling of S&amp;P 500 profits growth to 10% in the second half of this year. Based on the historical record since the late 1940s, such an earnings acceleration would be likely only if gross-domestic-product growth were accelerating. Put differently, aggregate profits growth has never been positive, much less accelerated, when the economy was moving into recession.</p><p>For worn investors hoping for a bottom in global equity markets, an imminent recession is unnerving. Nor can they take much comfort in valuations. Trailing measures of price-to-earnings ratios are in line with long-term averages. Following their large selloffs in the first half of 2022, stocks may be cheaper, but they are not yet recession-proof cheap.</p><p>But not all is gloomy. An earlier-than-expected recession would bring about relief from inflation pressures by restoring greater balance between demand and supply in the economy. By doing so, it would lessen the need for aggressive central bank tightening, thereby making the downturn shorter and shallower than would otherwise be the case.</p><p>Recession now may not be what investors were hoping to hear. It makes the coming few months even more challenging. But it is probably preferable to the alternative of recession later.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114110216","content_text":"Economists and pundits who expect recession but not until 2023 may soon be surprised to find it already at our doorstep.That’s a big deal. It matters whether a recession comes sooner or later, for the following reasons.First, despite large setbacks in global equity and credit markets this year, investors are ill-prepared for an imminent contraction in economic activity. Analysts’ expectations for 2022 corporate profits growth over the remainder of this year are absurdly high. Valuations are not recession-proof. Investors have not fully discounted probable revenue and earnings disappointments before year-end 2022.Second, barring recurring shocks or an unlikely persistence of inflation, an earlier recession implies an earlier recovery, an earlier restoration of risk appetite, and an earlier rebound in corporate profitability. While timing short-term market ups and downs is a fool’s errand, misjudging the cycle altogether is a lost opportunity. Recession timing matters for investors.Third, the sooner recession arrives, the sooner inflation pressures will dissipate, and the less central banks will have to tighten. That, too, is ultimately a source of investor opportunity.So, why might a recession arrive this year? Simply put, that is what the data tell us. Globally, consumer expenditures are slowing. Spending booms facilitated by transfer payments, job gains, and economic reopening are fading under pressure of rising prices and falling real wages. Business capital expenditures are tailing off even faster. Fiscal policy is restrictive. Sticker shock is curbing the appetite for consumer durables like autos and housing.According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s July 1 GDPNow report, the U.S. economy probably contracted -2.1% in the just-concluded second quarter. That follows a -1.6% decline in gross domestic product in the first quarter. The first-quarter contraction was mostly about rising imports and falling inventories, rather than weakness of final demand. In contrast, the second-quarter slump is all about a spending slowdown.Historically U.S. recessions have followed a tightening of financial conditions, such as rising real interest rates, courtesy of tighter monetary policy. Or they ensue from falling asset prices, negative wealth effects, and a higher cost of capital. That means that recessions come, roughly, 18 months after central banks tighten policy.That is the historical norm, but it feels like an odd way to analyze (and forecast) today’s business cycle. The slowdown in demand that is now unfolding is not primarily the result of monetary policy restraint, nor does it mainly reflect falling asset prices.Rather, the main source of today’s flagging consumer and business spending is high prices, coupled with the shortages of physical and labor inputs that have pushed prices higher. Importantly, wages are not keeping up with prices. In recent months, average real hourly earnings in the U.S. have fallen close to 3% annually. Across industries, shortages of material and labor inputs are resulting in soaring prices and a reduced willingness of companies to spend.U.S. consumer and CEO confidence measures are at all-time lows, which is odd given near-record unemployment, but more understandable against the backdrop of four-decade highs in inflation.In short, economists, pundits, and investors are correct to anticipate recession, but they are using the wrong approach to anticipate its arrival. Recession is probable not because monetary policy will become restrictive by this time next year, but because purchasing power is crumbling today. Add in falling household wealth and a rising cost of capital for companies and the scene is set for demand to slow to stall speed well before the Federal Reserve or other central bank policies become genuinely restrictive.If that is correct, then “recession now” is vastly underappreciated by company analysts and the investors who follow them. According to FactSet, the consensus of company analysts has trimmed earnings estimates for the second-quarter U.S. S&P 500 earnings season, but has increased earnings estimates for the second half of 2022. After a pedestrian 4.1% rate of earnings growth for the second quarter of this year, the consensus forecasts more than a doubling of S&P 500 profits growth to 10% in the second half of this year. Based on the historical record since the late 1940s, such an earnings acceleration would be likely only if gross-domestic-product growth were accelerating. Put differently, aggregate profits growth has never been positive, much less accelerated, when the economy was moving into recession.For worn investors hoping for a bottom in global equity markets, an imminent recession is unnerving. Nor can they take much comfort in valuations. Trailing measures of price-to-earnings ratios are in line with long-term averages. Following their large selloffs in the first half of 2022, stocks may be cheaper, but they are not yet recession-proof cheap.But not all is gloomy. An earlier-than-expected recession would bring about relief from inflation pressures by restoring greater balance between demand and supply in the economy. By doing so, it would lessen the need for aggressive central bank tightening, thereby making the downturn shorter and shallower than would otherwise be the case.Recession now may not be what investors were hoping to hear. It makes the coming few months even more challenging. But it is probably preferable to the alternative of recession later.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}