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joeyjojo

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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-12-17
  Thanks for sharing
  EV Stocks Jumped in Morning Trading, with Nikola Surging 12.63% and XPeng Soaring 9.27%
  EV stocks jumped in morning trading, with Nikola surging 12.63% and XPeng soaring 9.27%
  EV Stocks Jumped in Morning Trading, with Nikola Surging 12.63% and XPeng Soaring 9.27%
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-12-10
  $S&P 500(.SPX)$
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-11-25
  $S&P 500(.SPX)$
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-11-22
  $S&P 500(.SPX)$
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-11-22
  Looking forward
  Tesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?
  which is 4.2 times higher than in Q2’22 when Tesla’s production suffered from COVID-related factory shutdowns. The growth in Tesla’s free cash flow margin is also due chiefly to a resumption of full production. What specifically stood out in Tesla's Q3'22 earnings report was the improvement in Tesla’s operating-cash-flo
  Tesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-11-22
  Thanks for sharing
  Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett
  SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his
  Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-11-21
  $DJIA(.DJI)$
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-11-17
  $S&P 500(.SPX)$
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-11-13
  $S&P 500(.SPX)$
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- joeyjojojoeyjojo
  ·2022-11-07
  $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$
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for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928800249","repostId":"1157489952","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157489952","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1671202726,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157489952?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-16 22:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks Jumped in Morning Trading, with Nikola Surging 12.63% and XPeng Soaring 9.27%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157489952","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks jumped in morning trading, with Nikola surging 12.63% and XPeng soaring 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22:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>EV stocks jumped in morning trading, with Nikola surging 12.63% and XPeng soaring 9.27%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6defe7e203a146c25e77831bf593111\" tg-width=\"253\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157489952","content_text":"EV stocks jumped in morning trading, with Nikola surging 12.63% and XPeng soaring 9.27%","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929652348,"gmtCreate":1670656285284,"gmtModify":1676538413620,"author":{"id":"4100755561153410","authorId":"4100755561153410","name":"joeyjojo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/797386e1b39fa3fc6ca3b5135a23f32b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100755561153410","authorIdStr":"4100755561153410"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$S&P 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500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966988485","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968397614,"gmtCreate":1669123502438,"gmtModify":1676538155271,"author":{"id":"4100755561153410","authorId":"4100755561153410","name":"joeyjojo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/797386e1b39fa3fc6ca3b5135a23f32b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100755561153410","authorIdStr":"4100755561153410"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968397614","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968397897,"gmtCreate":1669123468619,"gmtModify":1676538155268,"author":{"id":"4100755561153410","authorId":"4100755561153410","name":"joeyjojo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/797386e1b39fa3fc6ca3b5135a23f32b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100755561153410","authorIdStr":"4100755561153410"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward&nbsp;","listText":"Looking forward&nbsp;","text":"Looking forward","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968397897","repostId":"2285069770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285069770","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669104452,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285069770?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285069770","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"which is 4.2 times higher than in Q2’22 when Tesla’s production suffered from COVID-related factory shutdowns. The growth in Tesla’s free cash flow margin is also due chiefly to a resumption of full production. What specifically stood out in Tesla's Q3'22 earnings report was the improvement in Tesla’s operating-cash-flo","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla experienced a massive production rebound in Q3 2022.</li><li>The EV company’s free cash flow (and margins) are improving.</li><li>Tesla&#39;s valuation is actually not that expensive. Revenue estimates are rising.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c27a0eac9a28bef79be0b62ea6e94f9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Xiaolu Chu</span></p><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has seen a strong rebound in production and delivery growth in Q3 2022, which has translated into surging free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) for the electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) company. I believe Tesla’s soaring free cash flow and improving free cash flow conversion could ultimately result in a strong upwards revaluation of the firm’s shares. Year-to-date, Tesla’s shares have lost about half of their value due to many interrelated factors such as factory shutdowns in China, supply chain challenges, as well as inflation which is making raw materials more expensive. Since Tesla experienced a strong production rebound in Q3’22, I believe Tesla’s valuation has become too cheap given its prospects in the electric vehicle industry, and I consider the risk profile heavily skewed to the upside!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82789eb75255682f7592d3e9b3c9550\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Tesla beat Q3&#39;22 earnings</h2><p>Tesla reported Q3 2022 results in October which, based off of earnings, were better than expected. Tesla remained solidly profitable in the third quarter and reported EPS of $1.05, which beat the consensus of $1.00 per share. Revenues slightly disappointed, however.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0abfa8f1ab48d0fc683d664981a99773\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha: Tesla Q3&#39;22 Results</span></p><h2>Massive production rebound in Q3’22</h2><p>Tesla produced 365,923 electric vehicles in the third quarter, showing an increase of 42% quarter-over-quarter as production came back online after COVID-19 outbreaks forced factory shutdowns in the previous quarter. About 95% of Tesla&#39;s Q3&#39;22 production volume related to the Model 3/Y. Total deliveries in Q3’22 were 343,830, showing 35% quarter-over-quarter growth. Tesla achieved these results due to better factory utilization, as well as strong volume growth driven by robust customer demand for Tesla’s electric vehicle products.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b247e22241721fc6d09698c5b572dd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: InsideEVs</span></p><h2>Model 3/Y production ramp resulted in massive free cash flow rebound</h2><p>The ramp of the Model 3/Y is driving Tesla’s free cash flow growth, and although Tesla experienced a drop-off in revenues and FCF in Q2’22, the third quarter brought a lot of lost production volume back. As a result, Tesla is likely going to see new production and delivery records in Q4’22. I estimate that Tesla could produce between 380-390 thousand electric vehicles just in the fourth quarter and cross the 400 thousand EV production threshold in Q1’23. Tesla also said that it expects about 50% annual growth in production this year.</p><p>Tesla achieved $3,297M in free cash flow in Q3’22 on total revenues of $21.5B, which calculates to an FCF margin of 15.4%… which is 4.2 times higher than in Q2’22 when Tesla’s production suffered from COVID-related factory shutdowns. The growth in Tesla’s free cash flow margin is also due chiefly to a resumption of full production. What specifically stood out in Tesla&#39;s Q3&#39;22 earnings report was the improvement in Tesla’s operating-cash-flow-to-free-cash-flow conversion. The FCF conversion ratio -- which shows how much money of its operating cash flow gets “converted” into free cash flow - improved from 26.4% in Q2’22 to 64.6% in Q3’22. The improved conversion rate shows that Tesla’s Q3’22 production rebound has fundamentally improved the company’s free cash flow prospects.</p><p>Now that Tesla’s production, especially of the Model 3/Y, has resumed, I believe Tesla’s new baseline level of quarterly free cash flow is $2.7B to $3.3B.</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>$ in millions</p></td><td><p>Q3&#39;21</p></td><td><p>Q4&#39;21</p></td><td><p>Q1&#39;22</p></td><td><p>Q2&#39;22</p></td><td><p>Q3&#39;22</p></td><td><p>Y/Y Growth</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Total revenues</p></td><td><p>$13,757</p></td><td><p>$17,719</p></td><td><p>$18,756</p></td><td><p>$16,934</p></td><td><p>$21,454</p></td><td><p>55.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Net cash from operating activities</p></td><td><p>$3,147</p></td><td><p>$4,585</p></td><td><p>$3,995</p></td><td><p>$2,351</p></td><td><p>$5,100</p></td><td><p>62.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Capital expenditures</p></td><td><p>($1,819)</p></td><td><p>($1,810)</p></td><td><p>($1,767)</p></td><td><p>($1,730)</p></td><td><p>($1,803)</p></td><td><p>-0.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Free cash flow</p></td><td><p>$1,328</p></td><td><p>$2,775</p></td><td><p>$2,228</p></td><td><p>$621</p></td><td><p>$3,297</p></td><td><p>148.3%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Free cash flow margin</p></td><td><p>9.7%</p></td><td><p>15.7%</p></td><td><p>11.9%</p></td><td><p>3.7%</p></td><td><p>15.4%</p></td><td><p>59.2%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>OCF-FCF conversion</p></td><td><p>42.2%</p></td><td><p>60.5%</p></td><td><p>55.8%</p></td><td><p>26.4%</p></td><td><p>64.6%</p></td><td><p>53.2%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>(Source: Author)</p><p>A company’s free cash flow can be used in three ways: (1) repayment of debt, (2) investments in new products and innovation, and (3) for stock buybacks and dividends. For Tesla, I believe points (2) and (3) will be the relevant ones going forward. Tesla is ramping up EV production rapidly, and free cash flow generated from growing deliveries is set to be used for the ramp of the Model 3/Y and the development/market introduction of the Cybertruck, which is expected to become available in mid-2023.</p><p>Additionally, Elon Musk has started to play around with the idea of buying back $5-10B worth of Tesla stock which would be the first-ever stock buyback for the electric vehicle company. A stock buyback is usually seen as a sign that management sees its shares as undervalued, and it could push shares of Tesla into a new up-leg. Given that Tesla&#39;s shares have revalued to the downside by nearly 50% this year, I believe the introduction of a share buyback could help ease the negative sentiment overhang that has been created for Tesla&#39;s shares as well.</p><h2>Growth in operating income margin despite industry challenges</h2><p>Besides improved free cash flow margins, Tesla has seen growth in its operating margins, which has been partly driven by higher volumes and higher average selling prices. Despite lower levels of production due to COVID-19 and massive supply-chain challenges earlier this year, Tesla has successfully navigated these circumstances and managed to grow its operating income margins to 17.2%, showing a 2.6 PP improvement over Q2’22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0f3f66102ed1712c059f0173fa3986\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Tesla</span></p><h2>Tesla’s valuation is cheap</h2><p>Tesla’s valuation is not outrageous considering how quickly the company is ramping up deliveries and revenues. The expectation is for Tesla to sell $117.6B worth of product in FY 2023 which implies an annual revenue growth rate of 41%. Additionally, estimates for Tesla’s forward revenues have increased in FY 2022, showing growing analyst confidence in Tesla’s production ramp, especially regarding the Model 3 and Model Y. Based off of revenues of $117.6B, shares of Tesla trade at a P-S ratio of 4.8 X... which is significantly significantly below the 1-year average of 7.9 X.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690a5c96ed543c16f9afa926d6b72b65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Tesla&#39;s shares are also attractively valued based off of earnings... considering that Tesla is already profitable - it generated $3.3B in Q3&#39;22 profits - and that production is ramping up. Tesla has a P/E ratio of 31.3 X which is not crazy for an EV company that is already generating big profits.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fbe5c4e500a9d012367e7a8455593c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Tesla has also begun hiring new staff in November for the Cybertruck, which is Tesla&#39;s next EV product. Tesla is going to produce the Cybertruck at the Gigafactory in Texas with production expected to commence in FY 2023. The Cybertruck already has way more than 1M in reservations and the introduction of Tesla&#39;s newest model could be an upside catalyst for Tesla&#39;s shares.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s valuation compared to other EV companies may be considered high, but the EV company is the uncontested market leader in the electric vehicle industry and has an unrivaled output volume. No other EV company has the scale, capitalization, product lineup, and production footprint of Tesla.</p><p>Most of Tesla&#39;s competition consists of smaller start-ups that serve clearly-defined niches, such as pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles, or premium-class sedans. Tesla&#39;s shares, however, due to the near-50% down-side revaluation in 2022, are now even cheaper than shares of Lucid Group (LCID) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN)... and Tesla is profitable.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d36ef4c5d0c93be730fb43ab50145f1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Risks with Tesla</h2><p>The biggest commercial risk that I see with Tesla is a slowdown regarding the production ramp of the Model 3 and Model Y or delays with the production of the Cybertruck. High inflation, which makes raw materials more expensive, as well as continual supply chain disruptions are risks for Tesla and the stock as well. I would change my mind about Tesla if the company went through new unforeseen production bottlenecks regarding the Model 3/Y ramp or if the company experienced a steep drop-off in free cash flow.</p><h2>Limited recession impact, Taiwan risk</h2><p>I believe a recession would not have a major impact on Tesla’s potential in the EV market because the regulatory environment and customer attitudes have strongly shifted in favor of electric vehicles in recent years, including in China whose government has said it plans to reach net-zero emissions by 2060. However, because Tesla has built a giga-factory in Shanghai to serve Chinese demand for electric vehicles, the EV company is exposed to political risks in the event of a larger China-Taiwan conflict.</p><h2>Final thoughts</h2><p>Tesla’s production accomplishments and free cash flow growth in Q3&#39;22 are underrated, especially the improving free cash flow conversion ratio. What makes Tesla attractive as an EV investment is the low valuation based off of earnings, the strong free cash flow rebound and the nearing Cybertruck production start which could revive interest in Tesla. A potential stock buyback of up to $10B could also send shares of Tesla into a new up-leg. Considering that Tesla shares have lost near-50% of their value this year, I believe the risk profile is heavily skewed to the upside!</p><p><i>This article is written by The Asian Investor for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Strong Rebound Could Be Ahead?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-22 16:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559651-tesla-strong-rebound-could-be-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla experienced a massive production rebound in Q3 2022.The EV company’s free cash flow (and margins) are improving.Tesla's valuation is actually not that expensive. Revenue estimates are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559651-tesla-strong-rebound-could-be-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559651-tesla-strong-rebound-could-be-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285069770","content_text":"SummaryTesla experienced a massive production rebound in Q3 2022.The EV company’s free cash flow (and margins) are improving.Tesla's valuation is actually not that expensive. Revenue estimates are rising.Xiaolu ChuTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has seen a strong rebound in production and delivery growth in Q3 2022, which has translated into surging free cash flow (\"FCF\") for the electric vehicle (\"EV\") company. I believe Tesla’s soaring free cash flow and improving free cash flow conversion could ultimately result in a strong upwards revaluation of the firm’s shares. Year-to-date, Tesla’s shares have lost about half of their value due to many interrelated factors such as factory shutdowns in China, supply chain challenges, as well as inflation which is making raw materials more expensive. Since Tesla experienced a strong production rebound in Q3’22, I believe Tesla’s valuation has become too cheap given its prospects in the electric vehicle industry, and I consider the risk profile heavily skewed to the upside!Data by YChartsTesla beat Q3'22 earningsTesla reported Q3 2022 results in October which, based off of earnings, were better than expected. Tesla remained solidly profitable in the third quarter and reported EPS of $1.05, which beat the consensus of $1.00 per share. Revenues slightly disappointed, however.Seeking Alpha: Tesla Q3'22 ResultsMassive production rebound in Q3’22Tesla produced 365,923 electric vehicles in the third quarter, showing an increase of 42% quarter-over-quarter as production came back online after COVID-19 outbreaks forced factory shutdowns in the previous quarter. About 95% of Tesla's Q3'22 production volume related to the Model 3/Y. Total deliveries in Q3’22 were 343,830, showing 35% quarter-over-quarter growth. Tesla achieved these results due to better factory utilization, as well as strong volume growth driven by robust customer demand for Tesla’s electric vehicle products.Source: InsideEVsModel 3/Y production ramp resulted in massive free cash flow reboundThe ramp of the Model 3/Y is driving Tesla’s free cash flow growth, and although Tesla experienced a drop-off in revenues and FCF in Q2’22, the third quarter brought a lot of lost production volume back. As a result, Tesla is likely going to see new production and delivery records in Q4’22. I estimate that Tesla could produce between 380-390 thousand electric vehicles just in the fourth quarter and cross the 400 thousand EV production threshold in Q1’23. Tesla also said that it expects about 50% annual growth in production this year.Tesla achieved $3,297M in free cash flow in Q3’22 on total revenues of $21.5B, which calculates to an FCF margin of 15.4%… which is 4.2 times higher than in Q2’22 when Tesla’s production suffered from COVID-related factory shutdowns. The growth in Tesla’s free cash flow margin is also due chiefly to a resumption of full production. What specifically stood out in Tesla's Q3'22 earnings report was the improvement in Tesla’s operating-cash-flow-to-free-cash-flow conversion. The FCF conversion ratio -- which shows how much money of its operating cash flow gets “converted” into free cash flow - improved from 26.4% in Q2’22 to 64.6% in Q3’22. The improved conversion rate shows that Tesla’s Q3’22 production rebound has fundamentally improved the company’s free cash flow prospects.Now that Tesla’s production, especially of the Model 3/Y, has resumed, I believe Tesla’s new baseline level of quarterly free cash flow is $2.7B to $3.3B.$ in millionsQ3'21Q4'21Q1'22Q2'22Q3'22Y/Y GrowthTotal revenues$13,757$17,719$18,756$16,934$21,45455.9%Net cash from operating activities$3,147$4,585$3,995$2,351$5,10062.1%Capital expenditures($1,819)($1,810)($1,767)($1,730)($1,803)-0.9%Free cash flow$1,328$2,775$2,228$621$3,297148.3%Free cash flow margin9.7%15.7%11.9%3.7%15.4%59.2%OCF-FCF conversion42.2%60.5%55.8%26.4%64.6%53.2%(Source: Author)A company’s free cash flow can be used in three ways: (1) repayment of debt, (2) investments in new products and innovation, and (3) for stock buybacks and dividends. For Tesla, I believe points (2) and (3) will be the relevant ones going forward. Tesla is ramping up EV production rapidly, and free cash flow generated from growing deliveries is set to be used for the ramp of the Model 3/Y and the development/market introduction of the Cybertruck, which is expected to become available in mid-2023.Additionally, Elon Musk has started to play around with the idea of buying back $5-10B worth of Tesla stock which would be the first-ever stock buyback for the electric vehicle company. A stock buyback is usually seen as a sign that management sees its shares as undervalued, and it could push shares of Tesla into a new up-leg. Given that Tesla's shares have revalued to the downside by nearly 50% this year, I believe the introduction of a share buyback could help ease the negative sentiment overhang that has been created for Tesla's shares as well.Growth in operating income margin despite industry challengesBesides improved free cash flow margins, Tesla has seen growth in its operating margins, which has been partly driven by higher volumes and higher average selling prices. Despite lower levels of production due to COVID-19 and massive supply-chain challenges earlier this year, Tesla has successfully navigated these circumstances and managed to grow its operating income margins to 17.2%, showing a 2.6 PP improvement over Q2’22.Source: TeslaTesla’s valuation is cheapTesla’s valuation is not outrageous considering how quickly the company is ramping up deliveries and revenues. The expectation is for Tesla to sell $117.6B worth of product in FY 2023 which implies an annual revenue growth rate of 41%. Additionally, estimates for Tesla’s forward revenues have increased in FY 2022, showing growing analyst confidence in Tesla’s production ramp, especially regarding the Model 3 and Model Y. Based off of revenues of $117.6B, shares of Tesla trade at a P-S ratio of 4.8 X... which is significantly significantly below the 1-year average of 7.9 X.Data by YChartsTesla's shares are also attractively valued based off of earnings... considering that Tesla is already profitable - it generated $3.3B in Q3'22 profits - and that production is ramping up. Tesla has a P/E ratio of 31.3 X which is not crazy for an EV company that is already generating big profits.Data by YChartsTesla has also begun hiring new staff in November for the Cybertruck, which is Tesla's next EV product. Tesla is going to produce the Cybertruck at the Gigafactory in Texas with production expected to commence in FY 2023. The Cybertruck already has way more than 1M in reservations and the introduction of Tesla's newest model could be an upside catalyst for Tesla's shares.Tesla's valuation compared to other EV companies may be considered high, but the EV company is the uncontested market leader in the electric vehicle industry and has an unrivaled output volume. No other EV company has the scale, capitalization, product lineup, and production footprint of Tesla.Most of Tesla's competition consists of smaller start-ups that serve clearly-defined niches, such as pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles, or premium-class sedans. Tesla's shares, however, due to the near-50% down-side revaluation in 2022, are now even cheaper than shares of Lucid Group (LCID) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN)... and Tesla is profitable.Data by YChartsRisks with TeslaThe biggest commercial risk that I see with Tesla is a slowdown regarding the production ramp of the Model 3 and Model Y or delays with the production of the Cybertruck. High inflation, which makes raw materials more expensive, as well as continual supply chain disruptions are risks for Tesla and the stock as well. I would change my mind about Tesla if the company went through new unforeseen production bottlenecks regarding the Model 3/Y ramp or if the company experienced a steep drop-off in free cash flow.Limited recession impact, Taiwan riskI believe a recession would not have a major impact on Tesla’s potential in the EV market because the regulatory environment and customer attitudes have strongly shifted in favor of electric vehicles in recent years, including in China whose government has said it plans to reach net-zero emissions by 2060. However, because Tesla has built a giga-factory in Shanghai to serve Chinese demand for electric vehicles, the EV company is exposed to political risks in the event of a larger China-Taiwan conflict.Final thoughtsTesla’s production accomplishments and free cash flow growth in Q3'22 are underrated, especially the improving free cash flow conversion ratio. What makes Tesla attractive as an EV investment is the low valuation based off of earnings, the strong free cash flow rebound and the nearing Cybertruck production start which could revive interest in Tesla. A potential stock buyback of up to $10B could also send shares of Tesla into a new up-leg. Considering that Tesla shares have lost near-50% of their value this year, I believe the risk profile is heavily skewed to the upside!This article is written by The Asian Investor for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968397923,"gmtCreate":1669123411963,"gmtModify":1676538155260,"author":{"id":"4100755561153410","authorId":"4100755561153410","name":"joeyjojo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/797386e1b39fa3fc6ca3b5135a23f32b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100755561153410","authorIdStr":"4100755561153410"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968397923","repostId":"2285386886","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285386886","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669104486,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285386886?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 16:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285386886","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>As a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.</li><li>But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent position in Taiwan Semiconductor is a notable example.</li><li>The choice is even more puzzling when viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple.</li><li>There are certainly positives with Taiwan Semiconductor, that is, even when compared to Apple.</li><li>However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them, which produces mutual but asymmetric damage.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/511f126f81b7dac4ef1687fe1d622bbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Jamie McCarthy</span></p><h2>The investment thesis</h2><p>As a long-time Buffett cultist, I feel comfortable saying that I understand most of his investment choices. But occasionally, the grandmaster still manages to make a move that surprises me such as his recent position in TaiwanSemiconductor (NYSE:TSM). To wit, the recent 13F disclosure showed that Buffett opened a sizable position in TSM for the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) equity portfolio. As you can see from the following chart, his BRK portfolio now holds more than 60.06M shares of TSM with a total worth of over $4.11B. The TSM position is currently the 10thlargest position in the BRK portfolio.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79878ff126c58641fbbd5a5aa3c0b334\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Dataroma.com</span></p><p>The surprise comes in several ways. And the more obvious ways (like Buffett’s allergy to tech businesses) have already been discussed by several other SA authors and I won’t further add to it anymore. Here, I want to explore an angle that is less discussed so far. I want to explain why it feels more puzzling to me, that is besides the fact that Buffett added another tech name to his BRK portfolio, when the TSM position is viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). There are certainly positives with TSM, that is, even when compared to AAPL. As we will detail in the next section, it is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space and an R&amp;D yield that is even better than AAPL.</p><p>However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them and also the ongoing deglobalization mega-trend. According to a recentnews report, TSM’s scheduled price raises in 2023 were rejected by AAPL, by far its largest customer. AAPL currently outsources almost all of its processor manufacturing to factories in Taiwan. However, with the U.S. strategic initiatives to push to develop domestic semiconductor foundry capabilities, AAPL (and other U.S. chip players such Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) too) would be very likely to diversify its chip manufacturing away from TSM. And the damage will be mutual but asymmetric. It is easier for AAPL to find other foundry services to manufacture its chips, and a lot harder for TSM to find such large clients as AAPL.</p><p>The full impact of such tension and diversification will take time to fully manifest. And TSM’s role as the dominating high-end chipmaker in the world won’t change in the near term. But I see these recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of the price raises and the recent passing of the CHIPS act) as the turning point. Taking a broader view, I see these events as a logical step, or even an inevitable step, in the deglobalization process – a mega force that has been unfolding for over 10 years as shown in the chart below. The chart illustrates how globalization, measured as the percentage of total exports out of global GDP, has been in decline since its peak in 2008. The percentage has declined from 61% in 2008 to the to 51.6% in 2020. And since 2020, the China-U.S. trade tension, the COVID, and the Russian/Ukraine war have further quickened its pace.</p><p>In the remainder of this article, I will further analyze the details of these above considerations in more detail.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9d37af226f63d9047697f699ffa010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: The World Bank</span></p><h2>TSM’s valuation advantage</h2><p>First, as mentioned above, there are definitely many positives with TSM even when compared to AAPL. And valuation is an obvious place to start with. As a global leader in the foundry space, it is for sale at a fraction of the overall market and AAPL’s valuation as seen in the chart below.</p><p>To cite a few examples, TSM’s FY1 PE of 12.8x is almost only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Its TTM PE of 13.08x is also about only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Considering that these stocks have different leverages and enterprise values (“EV”), let&#39;s compare their multiples with leverages adjusted too. As you can see, TSM’s discount is even more dramatic in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples. TSM’s FW EV/EBITDA ratio sits at 7.64x only, less than ½ of AAPL’s 18.18x.</p><p>Yes, as you will see in the next section, TSM is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space, further bolstered by its consistent R&amp;D investments and also superb R&amp;D yield that even surpasses AAPL.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9101b641f06753dca5fee60c5e18ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>TSM’s more consistent and aggressive R&amp;D</h2><p>As detailed in our earlier articles:</p><blockquote><i>We do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we feel more comfortable betting on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&amp;D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&amp;D PROCESS. So correspondingly, in the long run, I feel comfortable as long as a tech business can A) sustainably support new R&amp;D expenditures, and B) has demonstrated a consistent R&amp;D yield. I do not feel the need to particularly bet on any one of the new products to be a hit (or a complete failure).</i></blockquote><p>And both TSM and AAPL can sustainably fund their new R&amp;D efforts with no problem in the long term, as illustrated in the next chart. It shows their R&amp;D expenses over the past 10 years as a percentage of their total sales. A few key observations:</p><ul><li>TSM has been investing very consistently in R&amp;D efforts, on average about 8.0% of its total sales.</li><li>AAPL&#39;s R&amp;D expenses have been climbing since Tim Cook took over the company from Jobs. Jobs believed that innovation is not about money and it &#34;has nothing to do with how much R&amp;D money” a business put in. Then Cook gradually increased the R&amp;D investments to the current level of around 6.1% since 2018.</li><li>So even at AAPL’s current R&amp;D level, TSM is still outspending AAPL by about 200 basis points. And also note TSM’s consistency: the R&amp;D expenses only fluctuated in a very narrow range over the past 10 years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ba62925d409c0646d95b62223ef4b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author</span></p><p>More impressively, TSM’s yield on the R&amp;D investment is also superior to AAPL, which is already at a remarkable level by itself as shown in the next chart. The chart used Buffett’s $1 test on R&amp;D expenses. More specifically, the chart quantifies the R&amp;D yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&amp;D expenditures. Thus, the results show how many dollars of profit are generated per $1 of R&amp;D expenses. In particular, in this chart, my analysis used the operating cash flow (“OPC”) as the profit and also took a 3-year moving average on the OPC to approximate a 3-year R&amp;D cycle. And the key observations are:</p><ul><li>The R&amp;D yield is also consistent for TSM, with an average of $6.75 since 2014.</li><li>AAPL’s picture is a bit more colorful. Its R&amp;D yield has been astronomical ($10+ in 2013 and $8+ in 2014 and 2015) thanks to its almost monopoly status in key market segments in those days. Its R&amp;D yield has gradually declined to around ~$4.0 in recent years. And its long-term average was about $5.3.</li><li>To provide a broader view, the FAAMG group features an average R&amp;D yield of ~$2.5 in recent years.</li><li>Thus, both AAPL and TSM boast superb R&amp;D yields even when compared to the overachievers in the FAAMG pack, and TSM’s yield is even higher than AAPL by a large gap.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e8c1b1427c0babf39d38ec60269d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Both enjoy high ROCE too, but AAPL is in its own category</h2><p>To me, ROCE (return on capital employed) is the most fundamental profitability metric as detailed in my blog article (with differences compared to ROE and Q&amp;A on the most frequently received questions from our readers). One key reason for its fundamental importance is that the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and reinvestment rate (“RR”) in the following simple way:</p><p>Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * RR</p><p>The ROCE of TSM and AAPL are shown below for the past 10 years. As you can see, TSM has been maintaining a high ROCE with remarkable consistency here. Its average ROCE has been about 42%. And I cannot overemphasize the consistency – which is a strong indicator of its stable moat. However, AAPL certainly has the upper hand here. Its ROCE is simply a category of its own. It has been hovering around an average of 125% since 2018 after its “declines” from an astronomical (and also unsustainable level in my view) of 200%+ earlier in the decade.</p><p>In terms of RR, both companies have sustainable capital allocation flexibility thanks to their strong cash generation. All told, my analysis shows that TSM has been maintaining an RR in the range between 7.5% to 10% in recent years, and AAPL about 5% to 7.5%.</p><p>So even without the trade tensions and deglobalization process aforementioned, I would project AAPL to have a much better perpetual growth curve ahead than TSM. I projected AAPL’s LT growth rate to be up to 10% (7.5% RR * 125% ROCE ~ 10% annual growth rate). And TSM’s growth rate, on the hand, would be limited to be in the mid-single digit range (say 4% = 10% RR * 42% ROCE).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98b3ddd710705df7ba8e09cb93f9b81a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Risks and final thought</h2><p>But to reiterate, I do see the developing tension between TSM and AAPL and the deglobalization process as the overarching forces here. And I only see the differences in terms of valuation, R&amp;D yields, and profitability to be secondary forces in the years to come. The deglobalization mega-trend has been unfolding since 2008. And I see a series of recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of TSM’s price raises, the CHIPS act, the ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions, and also the Russian/Ukraine war) to further exacerbate and accelerate the trend. Under such a mega-trend, I see it as inevitable that key chip clients (such as AAPL, AMD, and NVDA) diversify their manufacturing needs away from TSM.</p><p>And the bottom line is that damage will be mutual but asymmetric the way I see things. It is easier for AAPL to find replacement foundry services but a lot harder for TSM to find replacement clients at the scale of AAPL.</p><p><i>This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple And Taiwan Semiconductor: Let's Ask Buffett\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-22 16:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559717-apple-and-taiwan-semiconductor-ask-buffett","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285386886","content_text":"SummaryAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I understand (not to say I am able to anticipate) most of his stock choices.But from time to time, some of his choices still come as a surprise and his recent position in Taiwan Semiconductor is a notable example.The choice is even more puzzling when viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple.There are certainly positives with Taiwan Semiconductor, that is, even when compared to Apple.However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them, which produces mutual but asymmetric damage.Jamie McCarthyThe investment thesisAs a long-time Buffett cultist, I feel comfortable saying that I understand most of his investment choices. But occasionally, the grandmaster still manages to make a move that surprises me such as his recent position in TaiwanSemiconductor (NYSE:TSM). To wit, the recent 13F disclosure showed that Buffett opened a sizable position in TSM for the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) equity portfolio. As you can see from the following chart, his BRK portfolio now holds more than 60.06M shares of TSM with a total worth of over $4.11B. The TSM position is currently the 10thlargest position in the BRK portfolio.Source: Dataroma.comThe surprise comes in several ways. And the more obvious ways (like Buffett’s allergy to tech businesses) have already been discussed by several other SA authors and I won’t further add to it anymore. Here, I want to explore an angle that is less discussed so far. I want to explain why it feels more puzzling to me, that is besides the fact that Buffett added another tech name to his BRK portfolio, when the TSM position is viewed under the context of his largest holding, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). There are certainly positives with TSM, that is, even when compared to AAPL. As we will detail in the next section, it is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space and an R&D yield that is even better than AAPL.However, I see these positives easily overshadowed by the developing tension between them and also the ongoing deglobalization mega-trend. According to a recentnews report, TSM’s scheduled price raises in 2023 were rejected by AAPL, by far its largest customer. AAPL currently outsources almost all of its processor manufacturing to factories in Taiwan. However, with the U.S. strategic initiatives to push to develop domestic semiconductor foundry capabilities, AAPL (and other U.S. chip players such Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) too) would be very likely to diversify its chip manufacturing away from TSM. And the damage will be mutual but asymmetric. It is easier for AAPL to find other foundry services to manufacture its chips, and a lot harder for TSM to find such large clients as AAPL.The full impact of such tension and diversification will take time to fully manifest. And TSM’s role as the dominating high-end chipmaker in the world won’t change in the near term. But I see these recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of the price raises and the recent passing of the CHIPS act) as the turning point. Taking a broader view, I see these events as a logical step, or even an inevitable step, in the deglobalization process – a mega force that has been unfolding for over 10 years as shown in the chart below. The chart illustrates how globalization, measured as the percentage of total exports out of global GDP, has been in decline since its peak in 2008. The percentage has declined from 61% in 2008 to the to 51.6% in 2020. And since 2020, the China-U.S. trade tension, the COVID, and the Russian/Ukraine war have further quickened its pace.In the remainder of this article, I will further analyze the details of these above considerations in more detail.Source: The World BankTSM’s valuation advantageFirst, as mentioned above, there are definitely many positives with TSM even when compared to AAPL. And valuation is an obvious place to start with. As a global leader in the foundry space, it is for sale at a fraction of the overall market and AAPL’s valuation as seen in the chart below.To cite a few examples, TSM’s FY1 PE of 12.8x is almost only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Its TTM PE of 13.08x is also about only 1/2 of AAPL’s 24.2x. Considering that these stocks have different leverages and enterprise values (“EV”), let's compare their multiples with leverages adjusted too. As you can see, TSM’s discount is even more dramatic in terms of EV/EBITDA multiples. TSM’s FW EV/EBITDA ratio sits at 7.64x only, less than ½ of AAPL’s 18.18x.Yes, as you will see in the next section, TSM is a high-quality stock in its own right. It boasts a large technological lead in its space, further bolstered by its consistent R&D investments and also superb R&D yield that even surpasses AAPL.Source: Seeking Alpha dataTSM’s more consistent and aggressive R&DAs detailed in our earlier articles:We do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we feel more comfortable betting on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D PROCESS. So correspondingly, in the long run, I feel comfortable as long as a tech business can A) sustainably support new R&D expenditures, and B) has demonstrated a consistent R&D yield. I do not feel the need to particularly bet on any one of the new products to be a hit (or a complete failure).And both TSM and AAPL can sustainably fund their new R&D efforts with no problem in the long term, as illustrated in the next chart. It shows their R&D expenses over the past 10 years as a percentage of their total sales. A few key observations:TSM has been investing very consistently in R&D efforts, on average about 8.0% of its total sales.AAPL's R&D expenses have been climbing since Tim Cook took over the company from Jobs. Jobs believed that innovation is not about money and it \"has nothing to do with how much R&D money” a business put in. Then Cook gradually increased the R&D investments to the current level of around 6.1% since 2018.So even at AAPL’s current R&D level, TSM is still outspending AAPL by about 200 basis points. And also note TSM’s consistency: the R&D expenses only fluctuated in a very narrow range over the past 10 years.Source: AuthorMore impressively, TSM’s yield on the R&D investment is also superior to AAPL, which is already at a remarkable level by itself as shown in the next chart. The chart used Buffett’s $1 test on R&D expenses. More specifically, the chart quantifies the R&D yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. Thus, the results show how many dollars of profit are generated per $1 of R&D expenses. In particular, in this chart, my analysis used the operating cash flow (“OPC”) as the profit and also took a 3-year moving average on the OPC to approximate a 3-year R&D cycle. And the key observations are:The R&D yield is also consistent for TSM, with an average of $6.75 since 2014.AAPL’s picture is a bit more colorful. Its R&D yield has been astronomical ($10+ in 2013 and $8+ in 2014 and 2015) thanks to its almost monopoly status in key market segments in those days. Its R&D yield has gradually declined to around ~$4.0 in recent years. And its long-term average was about $5.3.To provide a broader view, the FAAMG group features an average R&D yield of ~$2.5 in recent years.Thus, both AAPL and TSM boast superb R&D yields even when compared to the overachievers in the FAAMG pack, and TSM’s yield is even higher than AAPL by a large gap.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataBoth enjoy high ROCE too, but AAPL is in its own categoryTo me, ROCE (return on capital employed) is the most fundamental profitability metric as detailed in my blog article (with differences compared to ROE and Q&A on the most frequently received questions from our readers). One key reason for its fundamental importance is that the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and reinvestment rate (“RR”) in the following simple way:Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * RRThe ROCE of TSM and AAPL are shown below for the past 10 years. As you can see, TSM has been maintaining a high ROCE with remarkable consistency here. Its average ROCE has been about 42%. And I cannot overemphasize the consistency – which is a strong indicator of its stable moat. However, AAPL certainly has the upper hand here. Its ROCE is simply a category of its own. It has been hovering around an average of 125% since 2018 after its “declines” from an astronomical (and also unsustainable level in my view) of 200%+ earlier in the decade.In terms of RR, both companies have sustainable capital allocation flexibility thanks to their strong cash generation. All told, my analysis shows that TSM has been maintaining an RR in the range between 7.5% to 10% in recent years, and AAPL about 5% to 7.5%.So even without the trade tensions and deglobalization process aforementioned, I would project AAPL to have a much better perpetual growth curve ahead than TSM. I projected AAPL’s LT growth rate to be up to 10% (7.5% RR * 125% ROCE ~ 10% annual growth rate). And TSM’s growth rate, on the hand, would be limited to be in the mid-single digit range (say 4% = 10% RR * 42% ROCE).Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtBut to reiterate, I do see the developing tension between TSM and AAPL and the deglobalization process as the overarching forces here. And I only see the differences in terms of valuation, R&D yields, and profitability to be secondary forces in the years to come. The deglobalization mega-trend has been unfolding since 2008. And I see a series of recent events (such as AAPL’s rejection of TSM’s price raises, the CHIPS act, the ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions, and also the Russian/Ukraine war) to further exacerbate and accelerate the trend. Under such a mega-trend, I see it as inevitable that key chip clients (such as AAPL, AMD, and NVDA) diversify their manufacturing needs away from TSM.And the bottom line is that damage will be mutual but asymmetric the way I see things. It is easier for AAPL to find replacement foundry services but a lot harder for TSM to find replacement clients at the scale of AAPL.This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. 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